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The sun’s magnetic field activity may provide a physical parameter for long-
range forecasting of the severity and the temporal dynamics of the COVID-19
pandemic

Preprint · June 2021

DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.14136.67846

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1 The sun’s magnetic field activity may provide a physical parameter for long-range

2 forecasting of the severity and the temporal dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic.

4 Author: Moses Turkle Bility1*

5 Author Affiliation: 1Department of Infectious Diseases and Microbiology, Graduate School of

6 Public Health, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Public Health, 130 DeSoto Street,

7 Pittsburgh, PA 15261.

9 *Corresponding Author: E-mail: mtbility@pitt.edu, Primary Phone: 412-648-8058, Fax

10 number: 412-383-8926.

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12 Running title: Sun-Earth magnetic field connection predicts COVID-19.

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14 Keywords: Sunspot number, heliospheric magnetic field, weakening geomagnetic field,

15 SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19, Sun-Earth connections, serpentinization.
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25 Abstract

26 It is well established that phenomena associated with Sun-Earth dynamics oscillate across

27 decades to millenniums, suggesting that indigenous cultures developed millennia ago could

28 provide insights into understanding current phenomena affecting human-global health in the

29 current rapidly changing geophysical environment. Here, using insights from indigenous

30 culture developed during the Neolithic-Mid Holocene period in Eurasia, I investigate the

31 relationship between the sun’s magnetic field activity and the severity and the temporal

32 dynamics of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. I demonstrate that the

33 temporal dynamics of the sun’s magnetic field activity, as measured using sunspot number is

34 synchronous with the temporal dynamics of COVID-19 cases and deaths across the globe.

35 Therefore, I propose that sunspot number may provide a physical parameter for long-range

36 forecasting of the severity and temporal dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic.

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48 Main

49 Indigenous cultures developed across Eurasia, Africa, and the Americas posit that Sun-Earth

50 connections modulate the health of the biosphere, including severe disease outbreaks in

51 human populations [1-5]. For example, the Neolithic Hemudu-Majiabang culture in the Yangtze

52 River Basin, posited that Sun-Earth connections modulate the human-biosphere [6-8]. The

53 Hemudu-Majiabang culture emerged in the Yangtze River Basin during the mid-Holocene

54 (~5000 to 7000 years ago), during a period of weakening geomagnetic field intensity, major

55 climate change (i.e., sea level rise, increasing temperature and CO2 levels) and the Neolithic

56 population collapsed [9-14]. Recent evidence suggests that population collapse of megafauna

57 (large animals), including hominids are associated with weakening geomagnetic field intensity

58 [15, 16]. Importantly, overwhelming evidence have demonstrated that the sun’s magnetic field

59 is coupled to the geomagnetic field, suggesting that changes in Sun-Earth magnetic field

60 dynamics could modulate disease outbreaks in human populations [17-20]. Additionally,

61 evidence demonstrate that magnetic portals connect Earth to the sun, further demonstrating

62 that the sun plays a significant role in modulating the geomagnetic field [17-20].

Figure 1: The temporal dynamics of the sun’s magnetic field activity and COVID-19 case and deaths.
The sun’s magnetic field activity, as measured and predicted by sunspot numbers (A, measured by NOAA,
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression) and the global confirmed biweekly COVID-19
cases and deaths (B-C, compiled by the Our World in Data, https://ourworldindata.org/covid-cases). The green
box in panel A denotes the current duration of the COVID-19 pandemic and the period of interest, which
covers late 2019 (December 2019) at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic till May 2021. The predicted
sunspot numbers during solar magnetic activity cycle-25 (2020-2030) (red curve in panel A) forecasts
increasing COVID-19 cases and deaths till the peak at the solar maximum (between late 2024 to early 2026).

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63 Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and associated

64 acute-severe lung disease outbreak was first recorded in the Yangtze River Basin in late 2019

65 [21, 22], at the beginning of solar magnetic activity cycle-25. Several research groups,

66 including my group have previously posited a link between Sun-Earth magnetic field dynamics

67 and severe disease outbreaks in humans, including the COVID-19 pandemic [23-25] (Note:

68 Reference #25, Bility et al, 2020, was withdrawn due to threats and intimidation against my

69 colleagues by some members of the academy and the public). Here, I demonstrate that the

70 temporal dynamics of the sun’s magnetic field activity, as measured using monthly sunspot

71 number is synchronous with the temporal dynamics of COVID-19 cases and deaths across the

72 globe (Figure 1).

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74 At present there is no physical parameter for forecasting COVID-19 cases and deaths across

75 the globe [26]. The current methods for forecasting the severity and temporal dynamics of the

76 COVID-19 pandemic are predominately based on preceding statistical trends (i.e., previous

77 number of infections, hospitalizations, etc.,) and are restricted to a few weeks into the future

78 (very short-range forecasting) [26]. Here, I propose that sunspot number may provide a

79 physical parameter for long-range forecasting of COVID-19 cases and deaths across the globe

80 at monthly to decadal scales. Sunspot number accounts for the semi-annual oscillation of

81 COVID-19 cases and deaths (Figure 1), with peaks around the equinoctial periods (late March

82 to late April; late September to late October) and troughs around the solstial periods due to the

83 Russell-McPherron effect [27-31]. The sunspot number also accounts for the increasing

84 COVID-19 cases and deaths across the globe over the past 1.5 years (Figure 1). Based on

85 the sunspot-forecasting parameter, I predict that the maximum yearly COVID-19 cases and

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86 deaths during solar cycle-25 will occur around the solar maximum (Figure 1). Furthermore,

87 regional and global temporal dynamics of COVID-19 cases and deaths will continue to oscillate

88 semi-annually within a year, with peaks in the equinoctial periods and troughs around the

89 solstial periods (Figure 1), and quasi-biennial oscillations between years [32].

Figure 2: A proposed mechanism by which Sun-Earth magnetic field dynamics mediate COVID-19.
Excess carbon dioxide (CO2) in the Earth’s atmosphere is modulated via the well-established Carbonate-
Silicate geochemical cycle, in which excess atmospheric CO2 dissolves in water, and this CO2-rich water
reacts with Peridotites to induce serpentinization, especially in the vicinity of orogenic belts on the tectonic
plates. The current geologic perturbations involving hydrosphere redistribution (due to polar ice melting), and
excess CO2 enables increased serpentinization in orogenic belts. Here, it is proposed that serpentinization-
induced production of iron oxides and ferromagnesian-silicate rock minerals is associated with long-
wavelength magnetic anomalies (LWMAs) during periods of weakened geomagnetic field intensity. Here, it is
hypothesized that COVID-19 outbreaks result from Proterozoic bedrock-associated LWMAs-induced magnetic
catalysis of coronavirus and aberrant molecules from biogenic molecules (i.e., endogenous virus, iron,
carbohydrates, proteins, lipids) within the human blood and tissues. We propose that these Proterozoic
bedrock-LWMAs (COVID-19-LWMAs) are modulated by the Sun-Earth magnetic field dynamics. Therefore,
severe COVID-19 outbreaks will predominantly occur in the Eurasian and the American plates, and will
oscillate in synchrony with the diurnal, semi-annual (equinoctial maxima, solstitial minima) and quasi-biennial
oscillation of the geomagnetic field intensity, which is modulated by the heliospheric magnetic field activity
(i.e., sunspot number). Spacecrafts monitoring the sun, namely, NASA’s Parker Solar Probe, NASA’s Solar
Dynamics Observatory, NASA’s Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory, NASA’s Interface Region Imaging
Spectrograph, ESA/NASA’s Solar Orbiter, ESA/NASA’s Solar and Heliospheric Observatory, and the joint
JAXA/NASA’s Hinode provide an early warning system for changes in heliospheric magnetic field activity.
Magnetometry satellites (ESA’s Swarm, NASA’s Gold, NASA’s ICON) and the global navigational satellite
systems (Ionospheric Total Electron Count) in orbit provide a means of detecting and tracking the
geomagnetic field-spherical harmonics associated with the COVID-19 outbreaks. Airborne and shipborne
magnetometry systems also provide means of monitoring geomagnetic field-spherical harmonics. This figure
was modified from an image generated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

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91 The current consensus in the nascent field exploring the relationship between the Sun-Earth

92 magnetic field dynamics and human health posit that the weak magnetic field from the sun

93 could perturbed immune modulatory genes to influence infection outcomes, including SARS-

94 CoV-2 infection [23, 24]. I previously proposed an alternate mechanism in which weak-

95 lithospheric magnetic field associated with newly formed iron oxide-silicate rock minerals in

96 Proterozoic bedrocks and the Sun-Earth magnetic field dynamics mediate magnetic catalysis

97 of SARS-CoV-2 and aberrant molecules (i.e., iron oxide, hyaline) from endogenous viruses

98 and biogenic molecules, respectively [25] (Figure 2). Future studies should attempt to falsify

99 both hypotheses to determine the role and the mechanism by which Sun-Earth magnetic field

100 dynamics could mediate or modulate the COVID-19 pandemic.

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102 CRediT author statement

103 Moses Turkle Bility: Conceptualization, Methodology, Data curation, Visualization,

104 Investigation, Supervision, Writing-Original draft preparation, Reviewing and Editing.

105

106 Declaration of competing interest

107 The authors declare no conflict of interest.

108

109 Acknowledgments

110 Grant and funding source: Not funded.

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