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Heavy rainfall patterns in Vietnam and their relation with ENSO cycles

Article  in  International Journal of Climatology · September 2015

DOI: 10.1002/joc.4451

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INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
Int. J. Climatol. (2015)
Published online in Wiley Online Library
(wileyonlinelibrary.com) DOI: 10.1002/joc.4451

Heavy rainfall patterns in Vietnam and their relation with

ENSO cycles
A. Gobin,a* H. T. Nguyen,b V. Q. Phamc and H. T. T. Phamd
a
Flemish Institute for Technological Research, Mol, Belgium
b Centre for Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment Science and Technology, Hanoi, Vietnam
c
Institute of Geography, Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology, Hanoi, Vietnam
d
Vietnam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment, Hanoi, Vietnam

ABSTRACT: Heavy rainfall months of more than 450 mm occur in all 56 meteorological stations in eight climatic zones of
Vietnam during the rainy season from April to September in the north (>20∘ N), from August to December in the centre and
from May to November in the south (<12∘ N). The severity of an El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episode, expressed as
the integral of sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in the central tropical Pacific over the duration, shows a 4.6-fold
(2.3-fold) increase in number of heavy rainfall months during La Niña (El Niño) per unit change in severity during the
1960–2009 period, suggesting a twin peak occurrence with both ENSO extremes. A heavy rainfall index (HRI) links heavy
rainfall months to the rainy season duration, and allows evaluation of the rainfall severity per station, climatic zone and ENSO
cycle. For the deltas and central climatic zones, seasonal rainfall and number of heavy rainfall months are significantly higher
at the p < 0.05 level during La Niña than during El Niño episodes. Interpolated seasonal rainfall shows distinct differences
between regions, with location having a larger effect than ENSO cycles on monthly rainfall amounts. Twenty-year return
monthly rainfall derived from generalized Pareto distributions for peak over thresholds range from 475 mm in the central
highlands to 2185 mm in the central coast. The spatial and temporal patterns of heavy monthly rainfall help explain flooding
and paddy inundation which occur at least twice as frequent during La Niña as compared to El Niño conditions, particularly in
Central Vietnam. The relation of HRI with both 20-year return levels and ENSO cycles offers opportunities for fast screening
of impacts in a wider region of Southeast Asia. Because ENSO cycles have an impact on flooding and paddy inundation, it
provides prospects for early warning, differentiated for different zones and rainfall regimes.

KEY WORDS Vietnam; El Niño-Southern Oscillation; rainfall; peak-over-threshold analysis; generalized Pareto distribution;
cokriging
Received 24 July 2014; Revised 15 May 2015; Accepted 20 June 2015

1. Introduction that is negatively correlated with the SST (Niño-3.4)

index. Recent developments have contributed signifi-
The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle is the
cantly to understanding the mechanism responsible for the
most influential climate phenomenon on year-to-year
interannual variation of heavy rainfall in central Vietnam
variation in average global temperature (Glantz, 2001).
(Chen et al., 2012a). Chen et al. (2012b) estimated the
ENSO is used to describe the Southern Oscillation of
rainfall produced by a cold surge vortex, tropical cyclone
the central tropical Pacific Ocean that includes both sea
and heavy rainfall/flood cyclones, and found the latter
surface temperature (SST) increases (warming – El Niño)
responsible for two thirds of the late fall rainfall in central
as well as SST decreases (cooling – La Niña) when
Vietnam. Heavy rainfall months occur during both El Niño
compared to long-term averages (Penland et al., 2010).
and La Niña episodes, and further research may be needed
El Niño and La Niña conditions cause a cascade of atmo-
to explain heavy rainfall patterns in other parts of Vietnam.
spheric changes that generate both droughts as well as
With its 3260 km coastline and highly varied geography
floods in several countries. ENSO influences the monsoon
from mountains to plains intersected by a dense river
variability in South East Asia (Webster and Yang, 1992)
network, Vietnam is highly affected by weather-related
and Vietnam (Glantz, 1996), a relationship which is not
hazards that are projected to increase in frequency with
fully understood (Webster et al., 1998) and contributes to
climate change (Nguyen and Nguyen, 2004; Thanh et al.,
uncertainty in climate projections for this region.
2004). Vietnam has 33.1 million hectare of land of which
From a climate perspective of the ENSO cycle, rainfall 75% are hilly and mountainous; in 2010, 10.8 million
in the central highlands (Nguyen et al., 2007) and central hectare are agricultural land and 7.5 million hectare are
coast (Yen et al., 2011) exhibits an interannual variation devoted to rice cultivation (FAO, 2012). The seasonal
distribution of rainfall is closely related to the monsoons.
* Correspondence to: Dr. ir. A. Gobin, VITO NV, Boeretang 200, 2400 Rainfall intensity can be high, producing rapid run-off
Mol, Belgium. E-mail: anne.gobin@vito.be and serious flooding. Flash floods are a particular concern

© 2015 Royal Meteorological Society

 A. GOBIN et al.
in regions where the topography quickly progresses from
highlands to coastal zones. Recent United Nations Devel-
opment Programme (UNDP), World Bank and Asian
Development Bank reports state that Vietnam is one of
the most hazard-prone countries in the world. In 10 years
from 1997 to 2006, flooding and storms caused over 5000
deaths, and destroyed more than 6000 fishing boats, nearly
300 000 houses, 4 million hectares of paddy rice, with
a total damage cost of over 50 000 billion Vietnamese
Dong (VND) (ADB, 2009). The fact that about 25% of
Vietnam’s population lives on the coast and another 25%
in the lowlands and flood plains compounds the problem
(Adger, 1999; McElwee, 2010). In 1994, the Government
prepared a Strategy and Action Plan for Mitigating Water
Disasters in Vietnam (MWR/UNDP/UNDHA, 1995)
building on the previous disaster management system
(Benson, 1997). This makes Vietnam one of a handful of
countries worldwide to have adopted and maintained such
a strategy for 20 years.
The serious floods of August 1971 and August 1973
in Hanoi, August 1996 in the northern provinces,
November–December 1999 along the central coast-
line and October–November 2007 in the central provinces
and South Delta (SD) (Brakenridge, 2012; NHMS, 2015)
are thought to be linked to the ENSO cycle. In Vietnam,
two climatic regions have been identified with respect
to El Niño and La Niña cycles (Nguyen et al., 2003):
(1) the North climatic region containing four climatic
zones: North West (NW), North East (NE), North Delta
(ND) and North Central (NC); and, (2) the South climatic
region containing three climatic zones: South Central
(SC), Highland Central (HC) and SD (Figure 1). The NW,
NE and HC climatic zones have a mountainous character
and the ND, NC, SD and SC are predominantly plains.
The islands (IS) form a separate region.
In many parts of the world, ENSO is associated with
the risk of weather-related disasters such as changes in
rainfall patterns, extreme continued rainfall and flooding.
We hypothesize that ENSO cycles have an influence on
rainfall patterns and heavy rainfall months in Vietnam with
subsequent impacts on flooding. A first objective was to
characterize heavy rainfall months and seasonal rainfall
patterns. A second objective was to analyse the relation
between heavy rainfall months and the ENSO cycle.
2. Data and methods
2.1. Spatial interpolation of seasonal rainfall
Four-monthly average rainfall amounts for both rainy
seasons (MJJA, SOND) during the 1980–2010 period
and for 188 meteorological stations from Vietnam were
retrieved from the global CLIMWAT database (FAO,
2012). In order to eliminate border effects, stations in
neighbouring countries were also included in the analysis.
The directional bias in the data is quantified using both
a vertical and horizontal gradient. Because the highest
mountain ranges occur in the north, the vertical gradient or
altitude is expected to be strong. All 4-monthly data were
© 2015 Royal Meteorological Society
subsequently interpolated using cokriging implemented
in ArcGIS 10 (© ESRI; Oliver, 1990) to elicit rainfall
patterns. Cokriging assumes that the distance or direction
between sample points reflects a spatial correlation and
takes advantage of the covariance with both horizontal
and vertical gradients that can be used to explain variation
in the interpolated rainfall surface (Equation (1)).
∑
n
∑
n
∑
n
z∗0 = 𝜆i zi + 𝛼j sj + 𝛽k tk (1)
i=1 j=1 k=1
where z∗0 is the estimated four monthly rainfall at each
0.05∘ grid node; zi is the 4-monthly rainfall at the meteo-
rological stations; 𝜆i is the undetermined weight assigned
to zi ; sj and tk are geographic variables that are co-located
with the primary variable zi ; 𝛼 j and 𝛽 k are the undetermined
weights assigned to sj and tk , respectively. Because spatial
dependence is expected to level after a certain distance,
spherical semivariograms were fitted. The interpolation
performance is evaluated using jackknifing (Efron, 1982)
leaving out one observation at a time from the rainfall sta-
tions to estimate the mean bias error (MBE), mean absolute
error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE) (Willmott
et al., 1985) and the Nash and Sutcliffe model Efficiency
coefficient (E; Nash and Sutcliffe, 1970). In addition,
Pearson’s correlation (r) is given between observed and
interpolated values at the 188 stations located in Vietnam.
The accuracy of the CLIMWAT subset for Vietnam was
compared to the monthly rainfall data set from the Vietnam
Institute of Meteorology using the same statistical metrics.
2.2. Rainfall station analysis and relation with ENSO
cycles
Monthly rainfall data were obtained from the Vietnam
Institute of Meteorology for the period 1960–2009 and
for 56 meteorological stations distributed over eight cli-
matic zones (Figure 1). The duration of the rainy sea-
son is defined as the number of consecutive months with
a monthly rainfall of more than 100 mm. A heavy rain-
fall month was determined as above the 90th percentile
of monthly rainfall in the entire data set and corresponds
to 450 mm monthly rainfall. The rainfall patterns of each
meteorological station were evaluated for the 4-monthly
periods (MJJA, SOND) that correspond to the rainy sea-
son. In addition, the length, onset and period of the rainy
season and the occurrence of heavy rainfall months were
determined. Differences or similarities in rainfall metrics
were evaluated for climatic zones and the entire country.
Data of SSTA Niño 3+4 region, the Oceanic Niño Index
(ONI), were downloaded from the Climate Prediction Cen-
ter of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administra-
tion (NOAA). NOAA’s operational definition of El Niño
and La Niña conditions (L’Heureux et al., 2012), i.e. five
consecutive 3-month running mean of SST anomalies of
0.5 ∘ C warmer (El Niño) or cooler (La Niña) than the
30-year average SST in the central tropical Pacific (SSTA
Niño 3 + 4 region), was used to quantify the relationship
between ENSO cycles and rainfall patterns in Vietnam.
During the 1960–2009 period, there are 15 El Niño
Int. J. Climatol. (2015)
 HEAVY RAINFALL PATTERNS IN VIETNAM

Figure 1. The location of 56 meteorological stations in eight different climatic zones of Vietnam. The SD climatic zone comprises the South East
and Mekong River Delta. The ND climatic zone equals the Red River Delta.

episodes (E) and 12 La Niña episodes (La) (Table 1). The
severity was defined as the integral of SSTA over the dura-
tion of the episode.
Because the rainy season length differs between stations
and climatic zones, a heavy rainfall index (HRI) was devel-
oped to evaluate heavy rainfall months during the rainy
season of each El Niño or La Niña episode (Equation (2)).
∑ NHREL
n
HRIEL = √ (2)
EL=1 NRSEL
where NHREL is the number of months with heavy rainfall
(>450 mm per month), EL refers to the months in each
El Niño or La Niña episode (Table 1) and NRSEL is the
corresponding number of months during the rainy season
in each of the 56 rainfall stations with n referring to the
number months in the rainy season during each El Niño
or La Niña episode. NHREL , NRSEL and HRIEL were
evaluated at station, climatic zone and episode level.
2.3. Peak-over-threshold analysis
It was hypothesized that the occurrence of heavy rainfall
months and their spatial patterns did not or not always
coincide with the climatic zones, nor did the climatic zone
sufficiently express similarities between rainfall stations.
Peak-over-threshold analysis (POT; Coles, 2001; Juarez
and Schucany, 2004) was used to define distributions for

© 2015 Royal Meteorological Society Int. J. Climatol. (2015)

 A. GOBIN et al.

Table 1. El Niño and la Niña episodes during the 1960–2009 period (source: Climate Prediction Center, NOAA).

El Niño El Niño episode Maximum SSTA Severity

From To Duration ∘C Month
E1963–1964 June 1963 February 1964 9 1.43 December 1963 9.4
E1965–1966 May 1965 April 1966 12 2.04 November 1965 15.6
E1968–1970 August 1968 January 1970 18 1.29 February 1969 14.3
E1972–1973 May 1972 March 1973 11 2.27 December 1973 15.5
E1976–1977 September 1976 February 1977 6 0.88 October 1976 4.1
E1977–1978 September 1977 February 1978 6 0.83 December 1977 4.2
E1982–1983 May 1982 June 1983 15 2.31 December 1982 19.2
E1986–1988 August 1986 February 1988 19 1.72 August 1987 20.7
E1991–1992 May 1991 June 1992 14 1.65 January 1992 14.4
E1994–1995 September 1994 March 1995 7 1.26 December 1994 5.9
E1997–1998 May 1997 April 1998 12 2.38 November 1997 21.3
E2002–2003 May 2002 February 2003 10 1.39 December 2002 9.9
E2004–2005 July 2004 January 2005 7 0.76 September 2004 4.9
E2006–2007 September 2006 January 2007 5 1.18 December 2006 4.2
E2009–2010 July 2009 April 2010 10 1.78 December 2009 6.1

La Niña La Niña episode Minimum SSTA Severity

From To Duration ∘C Month
L1964–1965 May 1964 January 1965 9 −0.86 December 1964 −6.4
L1970–1972 July 1970 January 1972 19 −1.42 January 1971 −15.8
L1973–1974 May 1973 July 1974 15 −2.08 December 1973 −18.3
L1974–1976 October 1974 April 1976 19 −1.78 January 1976 −18.8
L1983–1984 September 1983 January 1984 5 −1.09 November 1983 −3.8
L1984–1985 October 1984 September 1985 12 −1.23 December 1984 −9.0
L1988–1989 May 1988 May 1989 13 −1.89 December 1988 −17.0
L1995–1996 September 1995 March 1996 7 −0.96 November 1995 −6.1
L1998–2001 July 1998 March 2001 33 −1.78 January 2000 −33.6
L2005–2006 November 2005 March 2006 5 −1.01 January 2006 −3.7
L2007–2008 August 2007 June 2008 11 −1.64 February 2008 −11.5
L2008–2009 November 2008 March 2009 5 −0.94 January 2009 −3.4

the heavy rainfall months in each station and identify R package (Ribatet, 2009). The GPD fits to each of the
similarities between stations. The distribution of heavy station’s POT series were checked with qq-plots and
monthly rainfall exceedances Eu (x − u) asymptotes the the Anderson–Darling goodness of fit test. The 20-year
generalized Pareto distribution [GPD, Equation (3)] with return levels for each of the 56 monthly rainfall sta-
associated probabilities [prob, Equation (4)]. tions were taken as indicative for a once in a lifetime
( )−1∕𝜉 occurrence.
(x − u) Spatial interpolation of station distribution parameters
GPD (x − u; 𝜎, 𝜉) = 1 − 1 + 𝜉
𝜎 was implemented in ArcGIS 10 (© ESRI; Oliver, 1990) to
with 𝜎 + 𝜉 (x − u) ≥ 0 (3) obtain distribution parameters at ungauged sites (Ribeiro
and Diggle, 2007). We denote 𝜓 the GPD parameters to
prob (X > x) = prob (X > u) . (1 − GPD (x − u; 𝜎, 𝜉)) be interpolated, with 𝜓 ̂i their known values at location i
(4) and 𝜓̃ their interpolated values (Equation (6)).
where u is 450 mm; prob(X > u) is estimated from the
number of months exceeding 450 mm divided by the total ∑
n
∑
n
∑
n
𝜓
̃= 𝜆i 𝜓
̂i + 𝛼j hj + 𝛽k vk (6)
number of measured monthly rainfall. Return levels X(T) i=1 j=1 k=1
were subsequently derived for different return periods (T).
The T-year return level xT is defined by solving Equation Where 𝜓 ̃ represents each of the distribution parameters
(3) for x. at each 0.05∘ grid node; 𝜓̂i represents each of the known
𝜎( )
xT = u + 1 − (𝜆T)−𝜉 (5) distribution parameters at n meteorological stations with
𝜉
location i; 𝜆i is the undetermined weight assigned to 𝜓 ̂i ;
where 𝜆 is the number of heavy rainfall months divided hj and vk are the horizontal and vertical gradients, in casu
by the total number of recorded months. The best fit the geographic variables distance to the sea and elevation,
and 5–95% confidence intervals were defined using that are co-located with the primary variable 𝜓 ̂i ; 𝛼 j and
maximum likelihood estimation as implemented in the 𝛽 k are the undetermined weights assigned to hj and vk ,

© 2015 Royal Meteorological Society Int. J. Climatol. (2015)

 HEAVY RAINFALL PATTERNS IN VIETNAM

Table 2. Characteristics of heavy rainfall months (months with rainfall > 450 mm) and the rainy season in different climatic zones.

Climatic zone
NW NE ND NC SC HC SD IS
Number of heavy rainfall months
Average per year 0.9 1.7 0.5 1.2 1.5 0.7 0.5 0.7
Standard deviation 1.0 1.5 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 1.0
Maximum per year 1.7 2.9 2.3 2.3 2.9 1.4 1.4 1.7
Minimum per year 0.1 1.1 0.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1
Heavy monthly rain
Average per year (mm) 585 647 575 756 769 561 544 587
Standard deviation (mm) 109 167 124 264 258 94 83 109
Maximum per year (mm) 1426 1297 1149 2218 2220 960 792 1098
Occurrence (month) 6–7 6–7 7–8 9–10 10–11 7–8 7–8 7–9
Rainy season
Average per year (mm) 1623 2385 1435 1742 1962 1897 1852 1595
Standard deviation (mm) 609 1093 481 763 1087 640 519 815
Onset (average month) 4 4 5 6 7 5 5 5
Average length (months) 5.6 6.6 5.4 5.0 4.9 6.7 6.7 5.5

respectively. The 20-year return levels were subsequently
calculated based on the interpolated shape parameters.
The resulting patterns of 20-year return periods of heavy
monthly rainfall, average MJJA rainfall and SOND rainfall
were compared with the HRI.
2.4. Flooding
Data on flooding were obtained from the National
Hydro-Meteorological Service and the Dartmouth Flood
Observatory (DFO; Brakenridge, 2012). The DFO geo-
database contains records of country, provinces/towns,
rivers, geographic flood extent, duration, damage, severity
class and magnitude. The data for Vietnam are recorded
per climatic zone. The severity class is an assessment
whereby class 1 are large flood events with significant
damage to structures or agriculture, fatalities and/or 1–2
decades long reported interval since the last similar event;
class 1.5 are very large events with a greater than 2
decades but less than 100-year estimated recurrence inter-
val, and/or a local recurrence interval of at 1–2 decades
and affecting a large geographic region (>5000 km2 ); and
class 2 are extreme events with an estimated recurrence
interval greater than 100 years. The flood magnitude is the
lognormal of the product of flood duration, severity and
affected area. Data on inundated paddy fields (area) came
from the Central Committee for Flood and Storm Control
in Vietnam (CCSFC, 2012).
3. Results
The annual rainfall in Vietnam is within a wide range of
around 650 mm to above 7300 mm with a lot of variation
within each year and between years. In general, the annual
rainfall in the North and Central exceeds that in the South.
The highest annual rainfall occurs at Tra Mi 30 (7303 mm
in 1996), Bac Quang 9 (6466 mm in 1971) and Ba To 32
(6520 mm in 1999) (Figure 1). Most of the stations with
a high annual rainfall are located in the NE, NC and SC
climatic zones. During the 1960–2009 period, there are
in total 2600 months with a monthly rainfall of more than
450 mm in the 56 rainfall stations. In years with a high
annual rainfall, there are up to 5–6 months with heavy
monthly rainfall in different rainfall stations (Figure 1: Ba
To 32 , Tra Mi 30 and Phu Quoc 56 ). Conversely, in years
with a low annual rainfall, there may be no months with a
monthly rainfall higher than 450 mm (Table 2). Tien Yen
14 (3295 mm), Ba To 32 (2546 mm), Hue 28 (2452 mm)
and Tra Mi 30 (2450 mm) experience the highest monthly
rainfall recorded in Vietnam (Figure 1). Averaged per
year and per climatic zone, the NE and SC experience
the highest number of heavy rainfall months, whereas
monthly rainfall can be highest in SC and NC climatic
zones (Table 2). The two delta’s, the central highlands and
the IS have the lowest number of heavy rainfall months
and the lowest monthly rainfall (Table 2). The wettest
rainy season and highest variability occur in the NE
and SC followed by the NC climatic zone. Mountainous
regions (HC, NE) and the Mekong Delta (SD) experience
the longest rainy season. The combination of a relatively
short rainy season and high monthly rainfall in the central
coastal climatic zones results in extreme rainfall.
The rainfall data set used for interpolating average
monthly rainfall contains 188 rainfall stations located in
Vietnam and is a subset of the global CLIMWAT database
(FAO, 2012). The monthly rainfall data set from the Viet-
nam Institute of Meteorology provides for 57% overlap
and an overall excellent accuracy for the coinciding period
(MBE = 2.6 mm; MAE = 12.3 mm; RMSE = 16.5 mm;
E = 0.99; r = 0.91). Pronounced spatial differences exist
for the 4-monthly average May–August (MJJA) and
September–December (SOND) rainfall patterns across
Vietnam (Figure 2). Cokriging of monthly average rain-
fall during MJJA (MBE = 3.6 mm; MAE = 40.6 mm;
RMSE = 59.2; E = 0.66; r = 0.75) produced less accurate
estimates than interpolated monthly average SOND rain-
fall (MBE = −1.6 mm; MAE = 28.3 mm; RMSE = 52.8;
E = 0.72; r = 0.85). The goodness of fit is largely influ-
enced by an underestimation of high amounts of average

© 2015 Royal Meteorological Society Int. J. Climatol. (2015)

 A. GOBIN et al.

(a) (b)

< 400 < 200

400.1–600 200.1–400
600.1–800 400.1–600
800.1–1000 600.1–800
1000.1–1200 800.1–1000
1200.1–1400 1000.1–1200
1400.1–1600 1200.1–1400
1600.1–1800 1400.1–1600
>1800 >1600

Figure 2. Interpolated average monthly rainfall (in mm) during May–August (MJJA, a) and September–December (SOND, b) using cokriging of
rainfall stations in Vietnam and neighbouring countries.

500 Hue 28 (NC), Quang Ngai 31 (SC) and Bao Loc 42 (HC)
SOND
450 MJJA (Figure 1).
Simulated monthly average (mm)

400 During La Niña active periods, the annual and seasonal

350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0 is significant at the p < 0.01 level for the ND, NC and
0 50 100 150 200
Observed monthly average (mm)
Figure 3. Comparison between observed and estimated average monthly
precipitation during May–August (MJJA) and September–December
(SOND) using cokriging of 188 rainfall stations in Vietnam.
monthly rainfall in both MJJA and SOND (Figure 3). In
addition, for the MJJA months, an overestimation exists
of small average monthly rainfall amounts. Heavy rainfall
occurs during the rainy season from April to September
in the northern climatic zones (north of 20∘ N: NW, NE,
ND) and from May to November in the southern climatic
zones (south of 12∘ N: HC, SD) (Figure 2, Table 2). In the
central climatic zones along the coast (NC, SC), the rainy
season lasts from August to December with heavy rainfall
occurring mainly in October and November (Figure 2,
Table 2). Heavy monthly rainfall, however, may occur
outside the rainy season such as in Bac Quang 9 (NE)
and Sa Pa 8 (NE) in April, and occasionally in January in
rainfall is higher than during El Niño active periods as
shown for selected stations across the country (Figure 4).
Annual rainfall amounts during La Niña affected years
are significantly higher at the p < 0.05 level for the
deltas (ND, SD) and the central (NC, SC) climatic
zones. The occurrence of heavy rainfall months, how-
ever, is during May–August for the deltas and during
September–December for the central climatic zones
(Figure 2). For heavy monthly rainfall, the difference
250 300 350 400 450 500
SC climatic zones. The significantly (p < 0.05) longer
wet season during La Niña affected years in the central
climatic zones (SC, NC) impacts the rainfall during the
rainy season in Central Vietnam. This is also reflected
in the number of heavy rainfall months that significantly
differ between El Niño and La Niña cycles for the NC, SC
and HC climatic zones (p < 0.05).
There is a clear correlation between the maximum
(minimum) SSTA and the episode’s duration: the stronger
the anomaly in SST, the longer the duration of an episode
(Table 1) and the higher the occurrence of heavy rainfall
months during the episode as reflected by the values
for NHR, NRS and HRI plotted against the severity of
the episode (e.g. for NHR in Figure 5). A 2–3 month
lag showed the highest Pearson’s correlations between
heavy monthly rainfall in Vietnam and the ONI, i.e.
SSTA in Niño 3+4 region. Heavy rainfall months occur
more often during years with a long rainy season and a
very low SSTA value (Figure 5): the number of heavy
rainfall months increases more than fourfold per unit

© 2015 Royal Meteorological Society Int. J. Climatol. (2015)

 HEAVY RAINFALL PATTERNS IN VIETNAM

Figure 4. Rainfall during the rainy season (in mm) of El Niño and La Niña years for the 1960–2009 period and for selected stations in the eight
climatic zones in Vietnam (see Figure 1 for the location of the stations).

Figure 5. Number of heavy rainfall months in Vietnam versus the severity of El Niño and La Niña episodes during the 1960–2009 period.

decrease in SSTA sum resulting in more rainfall dur-
ing the rainy season influenced by La Niña episodes
(see also Figure 4). With more than 176 heavy rainfall
months during the rainy season and an HRI value of 5.42,
L1998–2001 is the strongest La Niña episode (Table 3),
followed by L1970–1972 (HRI = 4.42) and L1973–1974
(HRI = 4.03). The short-lasting L2005–2006 (HRI = 2.03)
and L2008–2009 (HRI = 1.60) have the lowest impact
on heavy rainfall months. Despite its short duration,
L1983–1984 (HRI = 2.73) has a substantial impact in the
central climatic zones. The SC followed by NC and NE
suffer most from heavy rainfall months as shown by high
HRI values (SC = 7.78, NC = 5.98, NE = 5.49). Despite
the larger number of El Niño episodes with a comparable
total duration (Table 1), HRI values are lower than for
La Niña episodes (Table 3). The number of heavy rainfall
months increases more than twofold per unit increase
in SSTA sum which can be attributed to the episode’s
duration (Figure 5). Although El Niño active periods
relate to lower seasonal rainfall amounts, heavy rainfall
months occur during most El Niño episodes but with
lower frequencies in the different climatic zones (Table 3).
El Niño episodes with heavy rainfall months are charac-
terized by a long duration and a wet season falling within
the length of the episode. E1968–1970 (HRI = 3.40) and
E1986 (HRI = 3.32) have the largest impact in NE and SC,
respectively. During El Niño periods, NE (HRI = 5.77)
followed by SC (HRI = 5.35) and NC (HRI = 4.60)
experience the largest number of heavy rainfall months.
La Niña episodes clearly result in higher occurrences of
heavy rainfall months as compared to El Niño episodes
which in turn influences the seasonal rainfall amounts

© 2015 Royal Meteorological Society Int. J. Climatol. (2015)

 A. GOBIN et al.

Table 3. High rainfall index (HRI) in eight climatic zones during El Niño and La Niña cycles. The overall largest figures are in bold.
The shadings indicate a gradient from lowest to highest values for El Niño (La Niña) cycles.
NW NE ND NC SC HC SD IS All
Niña
L1964–1965 0.82 1.85 1.09 2.23 1.57 0.37 0.31 0.54 3.09
L1970–1972 1.54 2.97 0.88 2.16 1.75 0.45 0.73 1.94 4.42
L1973–1974 1.08 2.93 1.85 2.00 1.52 0.42 0.12 1.39 4.03
L1974–1976 0.75 1.82 0.92 1.85 1.04 0.50 0.59 1.04 3.04
L1983–1984 0.00 0.47 1.34 1.94 2.20 0.77 0.24 0.49 2.73
L1984–1985 0.58 1.25 0.57 1.86 1.60 0.70 0.14 0.46 2.45
L1988–1989 0.58 1.20 0.16 0.97 1.68 0.55 0.67 1.02 2.84
L1995–1996 0.73 1.04 0.24 1.67 2.30 0.42 0.38 0.61 2.74
L1998–2001 1.93 2.23 0.19 2.22 4.65 1.26 1.52 1.30 5.42
L2005–2006 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.07 2.35 0.00 0.00 0.82 2.03
L2007–2008 0.79 0.75 0.31 2.06 3.15 1.00 1.10 0.93 3.67
L2008–2009 0.41 0.59 0.22 0.47 1.89 0.00 0.19 0.67 1.60
All 3.02 5.49 2.27 5.98 7.78 2.05 2.01 3.29 11.35
Niño
E1963–1964 0.83 1.70 1.07 1.95 1.15 0.75 0.71 0.94 3.27
E1965–1966 0.61 1.71 0.60 1.25 1.22 0.38 0.15 0.35 2.24
E1968–1970 1.40 2.74 0.76 1.24 0.91 1.08 0.39 0.85 3.40
E1972–1973 1.09 1.39 1.00 1.14 0.83 0.82 0.16 0.71 2.56
E1976 0.00 0.52 0.00 1.92 1.65 0.00 0.30 0.71 2.00
E1977–1978 0.00 0.24 0.00 0.82 1.43 1.07 0.00 0.26 1.47
E1982–1983 0.81 1.67 0.84 1.76 0.30 0.67 1.20 0.82 2.87
E1986 0.69 1.58 0.14 1.38 2.25 1.07 0.69 1.44 3.32
E1991 1.34 2.49 0.15 0.73 1.39 1.02 0.95 0.43 3.05
E1994–1995 0.00 0.73 1.11 1.02 2.04 0.50 0.27 0.24 2.26
E1997–1998 0.58 1.84 0.29 0.97 1.60 0.71 0.41 0.94 2.59
E2002–2003 1.42 1.31 0.16 1.36 2.11 0.96 0.44 0.47 2.90
E2004 0.85 1.31 0.21 0.91 0.94 0.43 0.18 0.83 1.99
E2006–2007 0.00 0.32 0.00 0.44 0.73 0.27 0.26 0.80 1.11
E2009 0.67 1.09 0.21 0.98 2.09 1.26 0.76 0.55 2.75
All 2.98 5.77 1.77 4.60 5.35 2.92 1.88 2.70 9.97

HC, Highland Central; IS, The Islands (see also Figure 1); NC, North Central; ND, North Delta or Red River Delta; NE, North East; NW, North
West; SC, South Central; SD, South Delta or Mekong River Delta.

(Figures 4 and 5). The rainfall amount during a heavy rain-
fall month, however, is irrespective of the ENSO cycle and
so is the ranking from high to low monthly heavy rainfall in
the different climatic zones: SC, NE, NC, HC, NW, SD and
ND. The monthly rainfall amounts across Vietnam were
therefore further analysed and GPD were modelled for
POT in each meteorological station. No significant trends
were observed in POT series during the 1960–2009 period
with 0.0 < R2 < 0.1 for all linear regression per station. The
GPD fits to each of the station’s POT series was very good
as checked with qq-plots. More than 90% of the stations
passed the Anderson–Darling goodness of fit test at the 5%
significance level. The average number of heavy rainfall
months per season, 0.06 < 𝜆 < 4.41, shows the highest val-
ues for stations located in central and far northern Vietnam,
e.g. Bac Quang 9 (NE, 𝜆 = 4.40), Tra Mi 30 (SC, 𝜆 = 2.73),
Ba To 32 (SC, 𝜆 = 2.12) and Hue 28 (NC, 𝜆 = 2.10). The
lowest values are for Ayunpa 38 (HC, 𝜆 = 0.06), Vung
Tau 43 (SD, 𝜆 = 0.08) and Yen Chau 6 (NW, 𝜆 = 0.09).
The return level versus return period plots for selected
rainfall stations (Figure 6) demonstrate the fitted general
Pareto distributions of heavy monthly rainfall together
with the estimates of the return period (Equation (5)) for
rainfall amounts above the 450 mm threshold. Confidence
intervals of the fitted curves provide an indication of the
curve’s reliability, which is naturally larger for lower return
periods and for stations with a high number of heavy rain-
fall months. The scale parameter (𝜎) shows a wider distri-
bution in the central coastal stations and the far north. The
shape parameter, −1.90 < 𝜉 < 0.85, is negative for 75% of
the stations. Most of the stations located in the ND and
from there in a band towards the west have a slightly posi-
tive shape parameter indicating that the GPD has no upper
limit. Stations with the highest monthly rainfall have 𝜉
values around zero represented by a fitted straight line
(Figure 6: Hue 28 , Phu Quoc 56 , Pleicu 37 , Phuoc Long 45 ,
Muong Te 1 ). The 20-year return levels, corresponding
to a once in a lifetime event, range between 475 mm in
Da Lat41 (HC) and 2185 mm in Tra Mi 30 (SC) and dis-
play a large variation between the different regions and
stations (Figures 7 and 8). The confidence interval for
20-year return values is much larger for central coastal sta-
tions and for a few stations located in the NE indicating
a large variability (Figure 7). The spatial distribution of
the average number of heavy rainfall months during the
season (𝜆), the scale parameter (𝜎) and the shape param-
eter (𝜉) of the GPD (Equation (5)) shows similar patterns
to the interpolated 20-year return level map (Figure 8). A
distinct spatial pattern exists between high 20-year return

© 2015 Royal Meteorological Society Int. J. Climatol. (2015)

 HEAVY RAINFALL PATTERNS IN VIETNAM

Figure 6. Exceedance diagrams derived from the modelled generalized Pareto distributions for peak over thresholds. Stations selected have the
highest monthly rainfall for their climatic zone. The central lines represent the maximum likelihood estimation, the other lines are the 95% confidence
intervals, and the dots are observations versus their empirical return period.

© 2015 Royal Meteorological Society Int. J. Climatol. (2015)


3000
2500
20-year return level
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55
NW NE
Figure 7. Twenty-year return level and confidence interval for 56 stations in Vietnam.
values for stations located in the far north and along
the central coast, and low 20-year return values in both
delta regions stretching towards the west and the central
highlands, respectively (Figure 8).
The spatial rainfall patterns and temporal analysis of
heavy rainfall months help explain the occurrence of
flood events in the different climatic zones. Accord-
ing to the flood record archive from the National
Hydro-Meteorological Service and the DFO (Braken-
ridge, 2012), most flooding events cover the area between
12∘ and 19∘ N in central Vietnam which coincides with the
NC and SC climatic zones (Figures 1, 2, and 8). During
the 1985–2009 period, 34% of the recorded floods were
located in SC, 28% in NC, 9% in HC and NW, 8% in SD,
7% in NE and 5% in ND. During La Niña, flooding occurs
2–4 times as frequent as during El Niño episodes, partic-
ularly in the SC and NC climatic zones. Flash foods are a
particular concern in the central climatic zones where the
topography quickly progresses from mountains and hills
to plains and coastal areas. The deltas are predominantly
lowlands and receive run-on from surrounding hills and
mountains transported by large river systems. The flood
duration in days is on average 2–3 times longer during
La Niña episodes, ranging from 2 to 39 days during La
Niña and 3 to 11 days during El Niño episodes in all zones
but the SD. The flood duration in the SD is much higher
than in the other zones with an average of 28 days during
La Niña episodes, a maximum of 59 days during the 2005
La Niña episode and a minimum of 7 days during the
1991 El Niño episode. The flood severity is larger during
La Niña episodes when the floods relate to extreme events
with a greater than two decades recurrence interval. The
affected area is on average 45 833 km2 during La Niña;
38 061 km2 during El Niño and 31 178 km2 during ENSO
neutral years. The magnitude, expressed as the logarithm
of the product of severity, duration and affected area, is
higher during La Niña periods with all three terms on
average and in variability higher than during El Niño
periods.
On average, 432 663 ha or 5.6% of total paddy cul-
tivation is inundated every year, the majority of which
© 2015 Royal Meteorological Society
A. GOBIN et al.
ND NC SC HC SD IS
Station ID
is located in the NC (108 567 ha) and the two deltas
(NW + ND: 117 215 ha; SD: 118 551 ha). The data from
the Central Committee for Flood and Storm Control show
that during La Niña periods the SE (South East) region,
being the northern part of the SD climatic zone (see
Figure 1 for location), and both the NC and SC cli-
matic zones are severely affected with larger areas being
inundated as compared to El Niño periods. The most
severe flooding occurred in 1996 when 986 982 ha or
14.1% of total paddy cultivation were inundated pre-
dominantly in the ND, NC and NW climatic zones. In
1989, 12.9% of paddy or 765 375 ha were flooded mostly
in the SC. The 1997 and 2000 inundations took mostly
place in the SD with 858 300 ha (12.1%) and 864 500 ha
(11.3%) of total paddy flooded, respectively. All 4 years
were characterized by negative SSTA during the first
3 months of those years and during the last 3 months of the
previous years.
4. Discussion
Heavy rainfall months occurred not only in La Niña but
also in El Niño episodes, but their frequency is higher
during the former. A higher frequency of heavy rainfall
months occurs during cycles with a long duration and low
SSTA (cold SST) over the NINO3.4 region. Similar find-
ings were obtained for the influence of SST in the tropical
Pacific ocean on monthly precipitation over the central
highlands (Nguyen et al., 2007), on extreme rainfall
amounts in 2004 over the NC climatic zone (Truong et al.,
2009) and along the central coastline (Chen et al., 2012a).
We found the temperature sum of SST during an episode
a good indicator for the number of heavy rainfall months
in Vietnam. SST values in the Niño 3.4 region therefore
provide a good indication of the impact in Vietnam of
El Niño–La Niña cycles. Compared with other studies,
ENSO activity was found to be the principal large scale
forcing in Southeast Asian Monsoon fluctuations (Lau
et al., 2000; Caesar et al., 2011). In Vietnam, the tropical
Pacific SSTAs was found to contribute to the interannual
Int. J. Climatol. (2015)
 HEAVY RAINFALL PATTERNS IN VIETNAM

Figure 8. Interpolated 20-year return levels for Vietnam.

variation of the central October–November rainfall regime
with drier (wetter) weather following warmer (colder) SST
over the NINO3.4 region owing to the interannual variation
of the divergent water vapour flux (Chen et al., 2012a). We
found that the number of heavy rainfall months relates to
ENSO cycles so that high rainfall amounts during the rainy
season and flooding could significantly be linked to the
El Niño-Southern Oscillation. The relationship between
rainfall amount and ENSO was found strongest during the
SOND rainy season in the Central provinces leading to
increased risk of flooding. A longer ENSO episode will
result in a larger number of heavy rainfall months repre-
sented by a peak on either side of the SST sum (Figure 5).
During La Niña, a 4.6-fold increase in number of heavy

© 2015 Royal Meteorological Society Int. J. Climatol. (2015)

 A. GOBIN et al.
rainfall months and during El Niño a 2.3-fold increase
was observed per unit change in SST sum during the
1960–2009 period. Although no evidence of the observed
twin peak was found in the literature, flooding occurs
during strong El Niño years (Brakenridge, 2012; NHMS,
2015) which could be in support of our analysis, e.g.
December 1986 in the centre, August 1991 in the north,
June 2002 in the south and September 2002 in the north.
While large scale rainfall variations in Vietnam can be
linked to ENSO activity and heavy rainfall/flood cyclones
(Chen et al., 2012a), rainfall variability across the country
can be attributed to other factors. The topography, espe-
cially large mountain ranges, plays an important role in
the rainfall distribution in Vietnam and explains the dis-
tribution of heavy monthly rain. Cokriging helps reduce
the variance of the estimation errors using cross-correlated
information contained in secondary variables which we
defined as horizontal and vertical gradients. Although the
rainfall variability on complex terrain is not always cap-
tured at low spatial resolutions, corrections for altitude
will be more accurate with more station data becoming
available allowing for the use of more sophisticated spatial
models such as PRISM (Daly et al., 1994) or ASOADeK
(Guan et al., 2005).
No significant trends were observed in heavy monthly
rainfall amounts during the 1960–2009 period. The spatial
and temporal patchiness of extreme rainfall is captured
at the aggregated level of monthly rainfall as shown by
modelled GPD for POT. The use of statistical quantities,
in casu an extreme threshold of 450 mm equaling the 90th
percentile, is supported by Plummer et al. (1999) and
Manton et al. (2001). The broader the region of interest,
the extremer the upper percentile of choice should be to
cover the region’s variability. The POT sampling scheme
allows for extracting a larger number of samples as com-
pared to block or annual maxima (AM) for modelling
generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions. More
stations can therefore be added to the sampling scheme,
even if the records are incomplete. At high thresholds,
there is a close relation between GPD and GEV param-
eters (Coles, 2001; Katz et al., 2005). A comparison of
20-year return values between the two methods for all
stations shows very similar results (POT = 1.04AM − 8.4;
R2 = 0.99). The methodology is therefore suitable for
extreme rainfall analysis in regions with limited data
available.
The division into climatic zones according to Nguyen
and Nguyen (2004) is in accordance with spatially interpo-
lated MJJA and SOND average monthly rainfall patterns.
Moreover, the climatic zones can easily be related to
statistics on flooding and inundation. While Nguyen et al.
(2003) discern two rainfall regimes, our analysis points to
three different rainfall regimes in Vietnam and is in line
with the findings of Chen et al. (2012a): (1) a summer
regime (April–September) in the north (>20∘ N); (2) a fall
regime (August–December) in the central climatic zones;
and (3) a combination of both regimes (May–November)
in the south (<12∘ N). The spatial patterns of 20-year
return levels and GPD distribution parameters reveal
© 2015 Royal Meteorological Society
distinctive zones that may suggest repositioning some of
the current climatic zone boundaries. Particularly in the
northern climatic zones, a stretch including the ND, the
southern part of the NW and the northern part of the NC
display a fairly homogeneous zone of low 20-year return
levels. This zone is wedged between zones of high 20-year
return levels in the far north (northern part of NW, NE) and
the central coastal zone (NC, SC). The division of the SD
into a river delta and south eastern climatic zone as used in
flooding statistics by the Central Committee for Flood and
Storm Control is supported by our GPD-POT results. With
more data becoming available, the extreme value anal-
ysis may be further refined and result into more precise
interpolated surfaces making crisp climatic boundaries
obsolete.
A HRI that reflects the share of heavy rainfall months
to the rainy season provides for a simple method to detect
the potential impact of an ENSO cycle. In addition, HRI
is a good predictor of the 20-year return levels of heavy
monthly rainfall (R2 = 0.78; RL20 = 79.5 HRI + 536.4).
The indicator offers possibilities for use in a wider
region of Southeast Asia. The relation between rain-
fall during the rainy season, number of heavy rainfall
months and ENSO allows for early warning differenti-
ated for different climatic zones and rainfall regimes in
Vietnam.
5. Conclusion
Heavy rainfall months of more than 450 mm occur in all
56 meteorological stations in eight climatic zones of Viet-
nam during 1960–2009. The rainy season lasts from May
to October in the North, the South and Central Highlands;
and, from August to December in the Central Coast cli-
matic zones. Two indicators were developed to investigate
the impact of the ENSO on heavy rainfall. The severity
of an ENSO episode, expressed as the integral of SSTA
over the duration, explains the different impacts that El
Niño–La Niña cycles have on the number of heavy rain-
fall months. During La Niña episodes, the number of
heavy rainfall months is twice as much as during El Niño
episodes per unit change in SSTA sum and suggests a twin
peak occurrence with both ENSO extremes. A HRI was
developed to express the share of heavy rainfall months
to the rainy season duration and to evaluate the rainfall
severity per station, climatic zone and ENSO cycle. For the
two deltas and two central climatic zones, seasonal rainfall
amounts and number of heavy rainfall months are signif-
icantly higher at the p < 0.05 level during La Niña than
during El Niño episodes.
Local environmental conditions have a larger effect than
ENSO cycles on monthly heavy rainfall amounts as inves-
tigated with extreme value analysis. Twenty-year return
levels, corresponding to a once in a lifetime event, were
derived from modelled GPD for the peak over thresh-
olds series in each meteorological station. Ranging from
475 mm in the Central Highlands to 2185 mm in the SC
climatic zone, the 20-year return levels display a large
Int. J. Climatol. (2015)
 HEAVY RAINFALL PATTERNS IN VIETNAM
variation between stations across Vietnam. The southern
parts of the NW and NE, the Central Highlands and the
IS experience relatively lower impacts of heavy monthly
rainfall amounts. Conversely, the central and far northern
climatic zones have a higher frequency of heavy rainfall
month amounts during the 1960–2009 period.
The combined method of ENSO-related indicators,
spatio-temporal rainfall pattern evaluation and extreme
value analysis of heavy monthly rainfall help explain
flooding and inundation of paddy fields. Flooding and
paddy inundation occur at least twice as frequent during
La Niña as compared to El Niño conditions, particularly
in the Central Coastal climatic zones and the northern
part of the SD. The HRI and the severity of an ENSO
episode proved useful indicators in investigating and
determining the impact of El Niño–La Niña cycles on
the occurrence of heavy rainfall months. The relation of
HRI with both 20-year return levels and ENSO cycles
offers opportunities for fast screening of impacts. Because
ENSO cycles have a significant impact on the rainfall pat-
terns and floods in Vietnam, SSTA monitoring provides a
method that contributes to early warning and preparedness
in the future, possibly in a wider region of Southeast
Asia. Differences in rainfall regimes and climatic zones
of Vietnam warrant differentiation in warnings along
these lines.
Acknowledgements
This research is part of a contract (BL/03/V28) funded
by the Belgian Science Policy (Belspo) within the frame-
work of the bilateral cooperation on scientific research
between Vietnam and Belgium. In addition, financial
support was obtained from Belspo under research contract
SD/RI/03A dealing with the impact of meteorological
risks and from the Vietnamese Academy of Science and
Technology. The authors acknowledge the provision
of meteorological data from the Vietnam Institute of
Meteorology.
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