Machine Learning-Based Timeseries Analysis for

Cryptocurrency Price Prediction: A Systematic

Review and Research
Siva Kumar.A1 Gopirajan PV2,* Beulah Jackson3
1Assistant 2Assistant 3Professor,
Professor, Professor,
Department of Data Science and Department of Computational Department of ECE,
2023 International Conference on Networking and Communications (ICNWC) | 979-8-3503-3600-9/23/$31.00 ©2023 IEEE | DOI: 10.1109/ICNWC57852.2023.10127439

Business Systems, Intelligence, Vel Tech Rangarajan Dr. Sagunthala

School of Computing, School of Computing, R & D Institute of Science and
Technology,
SRM Institute of Science and SRM Institute of Science and
Chennai, India
Technology,Kattankulathur Campus, Technology, Kattankulathur Campus,
beulah.jack@gmail.com
Chennai – 603203, India Chennai – 603203, India
siva.aaru53@gmail.com gopivrajan@gmail.com
*Corresponding author

Abstract— A virtual currency known as cryptocurrencies
holds all business online. It's virtual money that wouldn't
materialize like complicated conventional paper currency.
Thus, this study emphasizes a distinction between distributed
paper currency and cryptocurrencies, where these individuals
may access information without outside interference. Because
of its considerable market swings, such cryptocurrencies have
an influence upon commerce as well as foreign diplomacy.
Virtual currencies which are available in the market, such as
Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Terra (LUNA), Solana
(SOL), Cardano (ADA), Tether (USDT), Binance coin (BNB),
USD coin, XRP coin, Avalanche coin (AVAX) and Lite coin
(LTC), etc. This study focussed on a detailed analysis of the
literature about Machine Learning (ML) methods used for
predictions. This proposed work also focused on
implementing an efficient Machine Learning (ML)-based time
series model for predicting BTC cryptocurrency prices. Long
Short-Term Memory (LSTM) forecasting theory was
established to accommodate the fluctuation of bitcoin prices
and achieve great precision. The effectiveness of the LSTM in
predicting the price of a cryptocurrency is demonstrated by
this suggested study's comparison between it and comparable
time-series models.
Keywords: Bitcoin, LSTM, Cryptocurrency, Machine
learning, Price prediction.
I. INTRODUCTION
Until the market date, the top-rated two
cryptocurrencies are bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH).
Traders trade these currencies and make a substantial
profit, buying or selling that currency on the coin swap
platform through network-based exchange channels that
encrypt transactions. They have a wallet where they keep
all their money and savings. In addition, cryptocurrency is
similar to the stock market because it buys and sells shares.
They will buy and sell currency in the same manner.
However, the price varies considerably based on the
criteria we described earlier. Again for purpose of
forecasting well-known cryptocurrencies like bitcoin and
Ethereum, several academics had explored with machine
learning and deep learning techniques. Many digital
currencies, such as Tron, Bitcoin, Stellar, and others, have
a variety of banking uses.
Trading firms want cryptocurrency price predictions
since they must set an objective. As a result, it will float up
and down. As a result of the price estimate, they will be
able to determine the plan and proceed accordingly.
Timeseries models like ARIMA (Autoregressive
Integrated Moving Average), Auto-Regressive (AR),
Moving Average (MA), Auto-Regressive Integrated
Moving Average (ARMA), ARIMAX, and Seasonal Auto-
Regressive Integrated Moving Average with eXogenous
factors (SARIMAX) methods can help in future prediction
based on the current flow of data and past information.
This research aims to examine whether the price of
Bitcoin can be predicted like other stock market tickers.
This will depend on whether we can further use it as a
payment medium. There are various challenges to address
when it comes to scientific research. Similarly, they do not
rate well as market drivers regarding market capitalization.
Another top-ranked pre-mined currency has a third feature
that Society open-sourced, non-mineable coins lack. Non-
mineable coin transactions are also supported via a
controlled blockchain.
II. RELATED WORKS
This literature review includes work on BTC [1] price
prediction utilizing various methodologies, the necessity
for, and the evaluation of Recurrent Neural Networks
(RNN) [2]. Machine learning and artificial intelligence
play a meaningful work irrespective of the domains [3],
[4]. Machine learning research on cryptocurrency
prediction is insufficient, particularly on deep learning
models. Towards this relevant topic, more than 600 papers
have indeed been released. [5]. Islam et al. discussed the
different types of cryptocurrencies and explained the
importance of blockchain technology for implementing
secured cryptocurrency [6]. Artificial Neural Networks
(ANN), Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), RNN,
and other neural network models of Machine learning
methodologies help in categorizing and predicting through
statistical approach [7]–[10]. Zhaofang Li et al. proposed
an idea based on Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT) in
cryptocurrency for providing high security to transfer the
digital currency and track the currency from its initial
position to its current position [11]. Though blockchain
supports the cryptocurrency and its product, bitcoin, cyber
criminals may induce data safety. Possible attacks could
happen online at an end. Ransomware is one such
inevitable threat to the data [12].

XXX-X-XXXX-XXXX-X/XX/$XX.00 ©20XX IEEE

 Akanksha Jalan et al. have compared the leading
cryptocurrencies, such as BTC, ETH, and LTC, through
surveys that happened on social media. They have
portrayed the importance of having trust in the people who
are doing international digital currency transformation
[13]. Moritz Wendla et al. discussed the work and stake
proof of the cryptocurrencies available in the market. They
have also concerned about the algorithms used for
cryptocurrency trading [14]. They have concluded the
significance of policy-making in digital money and safety.
Though cryptocurrency has many advantages in terms of
security and ease of use, Benjamin Johnson et al. have
discussed the additive behavior of digital money.
Cryptocurrencies are easily used in gambling, leading to
the loss of mental health and happiness [15]. Saeed Sazzad
Jeris et al. discussed the trend of cryptocurrency and how
it is associated with the livestock market. Though bitcoin
was launched in 2009, it became so popular in 2013. Thus,
the author discussed the progress of crypto-assets over the
stock market.
Alex De Vries discussed the impacts of the
merger of BTC and ETH that happened in September
2022. The author described the power supply usage before
and after the merger and how the power demand was
reduced. Sidharth Quamara and Awadhesh Kumar Singh
discussed the security constraints and methods associated
with cryptocurrencies. They have clearly illustrated the
fault-tolerant mechanism and Proof of Work (PoW)
methodology applied in cryptocurrencies [16].
Yao Yue et al. suggested the ideology of
economic impact after the cryptocurrency launch. They
have surveyed the effects in China [17]. Yi-Shuai Ren et
al. reviewed the application of ML in cryptocurrency[18].
They have stressed the significance of implementing ML
for price prediction. They have also concluded that
Random Forest (RF) is the most used ML methodology in
classification and price prediction.
Patrick Jaquart et al. analyzed various ML models
for online trading and price prediction. They have also
achieved a prediction accuracy of about sixty percent [19].
Gian Pietro Bellocca et al. discussed the implementation of
ML methods into practice to anticipate trading and
cryptocurrency cost momentum. They have introduced
candlestick, trend, Volatility, and volume approach in their
ML model to predict the outcomes [20]. Yaqi Wang et al.
support the prediction accuracy of the ML models in their
study. They have implemented various ML models and
tested the behavior of the prediction result. They
concluded that lacking training sets would lead to poor
outcomes [21]. The influence of data mining, transaction
network analysis, and continuous market watch are critical
factors for a good prediction model [22].
Haijun Lin et al. proposed an LSTM model for
predicting heart rate. They compared the efficiencies of
LSTM with RF, ARIMA, and a few other methods and
concluded that LSTM was more efficient [23]. LSTM was
very successful for Human Activity Recognition model
proposed by Hao Wu et al. [24].
III. PROPOSED SYSTEM
A. Data collection
Its an essential and initial phase for adequate algorithm
preparation. This proposed system was developed from the
free-to-use dataset in "Kaggle." The "Cryptocurrency
Historical Prices" dataset available in Comma-Separated
Value ('.csv') file format was used primarily along with the
other data collected from https://coinmarketcap.com/
(open to use) website[25]. And also, more dataset was
prepared from web-mining methods[26]. Web crawlers
were also developed exclusively for this study to collect
information from multiple websites. All the datasets
involved in this study were stored in the cloud repository
for easier access. The experiment's goal will be to produce
the result with more accuracy. Using the same test data, we
will test and analyze them to determine their predictive
performance. Dataset was prepared for almost 12 different
cryptocurrencies. Out of which, the bitcoin dataset was
made a high priority. Figure 1 depicts the detailed flow of
the anticipated study. Datasets collected from various
sources were combined as a single dataset and pre-
processed to remove redundant data. Then those data were
transformed into the required format (‘.csv’).
Fig 1. Cryptocurrency price prediction system architecture
The table content in figure 2 shows the sample dataset
collected online. For each column in the dataset shown in
the figure, a variable is assigned to segregate the values
such as high, low, open, close, and Marketcap. These
variables were assigned a multi-dimensional array value
for further processing. As a next step, those array values
were fed to the algorithm for training the model. Results
obtained for MA, RA, ARIMA, and LSTM were validated
with the real-time data available. Their results were
compared to figure out the optimal ML model for price
prediction. The results were stored in the cloud repository
for future use.
B. Data cleaning, pre-processing, and transformation
Cleaning and extracting only the required information is
vital as the data is collected from multiple sources. This
study uses a formal data cleaning procedure such as
redundant data removal, adjusting structural errors, and
missing data organization. The K Nearest Neighbour
(KNN) [27] method was used for the missing data. KNN
provides the average values calculated from the existing
neighboring values. This cleaned data were compiled into
a single '.csv' file for feeding the algorithm. This master
file contains around 79000 rows of information pertaining
to bitcoin.

Fig 3. Close value graph

This graph contains the comparison of density VS close for

the dataset used. Close value refers to the last achieved
price for the trade that happened. This graph shows a high
peak achieved during the initial twenty thousand data and
values decreasing for the remaining increase in data.

Fig 2. Algorithm implementation workspace

C. Model generation
The prepared dataset was inputted to the LSTM, MR, AR
and ARIMA models using 'sklearn' and 'pandas' packages
in Python. Figure 2 shows the implementation process of
the proposed work.

IV. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Table 1 shows the % accuracy comparison of the AR, MR,
Fig 4. High-value graph
ARIMA, and LSTM ML models used in this study for
various training and test set combinations. Totally, 78922 Figure 4 shows the high-value graph drawn for the given
rows of the dataset were considered to validate this input dataset. Here x-axis takes a high value, and the y-axis
proposed model. From the table, it is evident that 80:20 is takes the count value. This shows the constant variation of
the optimal ratio to be followed for training and test set. data between 0 to 1. Variations were noted with multiple
The LSTM model achieved higher % accuracy of about colors. The proposed model was designed as a user
71% for the 80:20 ratio. interface where the user can see the day, month, and year
predictions. For day-wise information, the model predicts
TABLE 1. ACCURACY COMPARISON OF ML MODELS
the hourly information, which will be very useful for those
Iterati Datas Trainin Testing ML model Accuracy % who want to see the progress of money translational value
on et g data data A M ARI LST
Numb rows percent percent R R MA M
while buying bitcoin.
er age age
1 78922 70 30 5 59 61 65
1
2 78922 75 25 5 58 59 68
3
3 78922 80 20 5 61 64 71
4
4 78922 85 15 5 55 62 67
2
5 78922 90 10 5 57 63 70
5
Fig 5. Day-wise and month-wise prediction

Relatively, for 75:25, LSTM achieved 68% for 75:25 and
70% for 90:10. Next to LSTM, the ARIMA model got an
accuracy % of 64, AR model got an accuracy of 55% for
the 90:10 ratio. MR model got a 61% accuracy ratio of
80:20. Figure 3 shows the close value graph obtained for
this proposed LSTM method.
Figure 5 shows the day and month trends as well as the
prediction of bitcoin cost. Figure 5.A shows the single-day
prediction, whereas 5.B shows the five days prediction,
5.C shows the one-month prediction, and 5.D shows the
six-monthly prediction. It can be noted that the day-wise
predictions show negative or falling values while the one-
month prediction shows positive values. This variation in
values is due to the market's currency value fluctuation.
Similarly, Figure 6 shows the year-wise prediction. 6.A
and 6.B shows the one-year prediction. It can be seen
clearly that there is a fall of bitcoin values from 30L to 15L
during the period May 2022 to October 2022. 6.C and 6.D
shows the five years and above data. There is a shortfall in
2022 year-end due to the market trend can be noted in these
graphs. This figure 5 and 6 were generated for the LSTM
model. These values were validated with the existing
dataset, and it was found that the LSTM prediction model
could achieve 71% accuracy compared with the other
models.

Fig 8. Analysis of ML predictive performance in %.

The bar chart in Figure 8 compares the effectiveness

Fig 6. Year-wise prediction
Fig 7. Comparison of training and validation set prediction
Figure 7 compares the training set, validation set, and
prediction values of the proposed LSTM model. As we
know the current currency trend through the available
dataset, the validation was made considering the 2013-
2020 years dataset. With the sixty thousand rows of the
training set, the LSTM model could attain around 70%
accuracy. The accuracy could be achieved even more when
a strong daily-basis and hourly-basis collected dataset is
available.
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