DCF

Key assumptions
Transaction date 31-Mar-20
Next financial YE 31-Mar-21
Perpetuity growth rate 0.50% <<< Put down the assumptions after discussing with your senior
TV exit EBITDA multiple 8.50%
WACC used for sensitivity analysis 8.50%

Below fill in the blanks by linking from the Financials tab update formula, growth is expressed vs previous year and margin is vs sales update as noted
DCF FCF Calculation

Stub period (731) (366) 0 365 730 1,095 1,461 1,826 2,191 2,556 2,922 3,287 3,652
Stub factor 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Actuals Estimates
March YE ($mm) 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E

Revenue 1,095.0 1,135.1 1,138.6 1,138.6 1,138.6 1,138.6 1,138.6 1,138.6 1,138.6 1,138.6 1,138.6 1,138.6 1,138.6 1,138.6
% growth 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 1.0%

EBITDA 108.7 109.5 98.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
% margin n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 9.0%
% growth n.a. 0.7% (10.3%) (100.0%) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.

D&A (31.6) -34.9 (36.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
% sales
% of capex n.a. n.a. (18947.4%) 95.0%

EBIT 77.1 74.6 62.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
% margin 7.0% 6.6% 5.5% n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
% growth (8.8%) (3.2%) (16.6%) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.0%

Tax << EBIT*tax rate

% tax rate 0.0% 0.0% 19.0% 19.0% 17.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

EBIAT 59.5 58.4 48.3 44.5 39.9 60.5 68.5 68.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 << EBIT+tax
% margin 5.4% 5.1% 4.2% n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.0%
% growth -8.32% -1.85% -17.29% -7.90% -10.31% 51.64% 13.16% 0.30% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

D&A (31.6) (34.9) (36.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Capex (36.1) (37.3) (31.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
% sales 3.3% 3.3% 2.7% n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
% D&A -31.6 -34.9 -36 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0%

Change in working capital (16.3) (12.6) (10.4) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
% sales (1.5%) (1.1%) (0.9%) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Other Cashflows (1.5) 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
% sales 0.0% 0.1% (0.1%) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.

Exceptional items 0.0 0.0

% sales 0.0% 0.0% n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.

FCF 44.5 39.9 60.5 68.5 68.7 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! <<add EBIT+D&A+Capex(-ve)+Change in WC (-ve)+other cashflows +exceptional items

Stub period (44.5) (0.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
FCF for discounting 0.0 39.9 60.5 68.5 68.7 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

Days to cashflow 0 365 731 1,096 1,461 1,826 2,192 2,557 2,922 3,287 3,653
Discount factor 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4

Terminal value Perpetuity growth portion #VALUE!

Exit EBITDA multiple 0.0

Perpetuity growth method Exit EBITDA multiple method

Present value ($m) (%) Present value ($m) (%)
PV of FCF #VALUE! #VALUE! PV of FCF #VALUE! #VALUE!
PV of Terminal Value #VALUE! #VALUE! PV of Terminal Value 0.0 #VALUE!
Enterprise value #VALUE! #VALUE! Enterprise value #VALUE! #VALUE!
Net debt & adjustments (84.6) Net debt & adjustments (84.6)
Equity value #VALUE! Equity value #VALUE!
Share price #VALUE! Share price #VALUE!
% premium to current #VALUE! % premium to current #VALUE!

Sensitivity analysis
Spread rates and step-up

Perpetuity growth rate 0.5% Perptuity growth rate step-up 0.25% EBITDA multiple 8.5x EBITDA multiple step-up 0.5x
WACC 8.5% WACC step-up 0.50% WACC 8.5% WACC step-up 0.5%

Perpetuity growth rate analysis EBITDA multiple analysis

Enterprise value ($m) Enterprise value ($m)
WACC (%) Perpetuity growth rate (%) WACC (%) Exit EBITDA multiple (x)
#VALUE! 0.00% 0.25% 0.50% 0.75% 1.00% #VALUE! 7.5x 8.0x 8.5x 9.0x 9.5x
7.5% #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 7.5% #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
8.0% #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 8.0% #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
8.5% #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 8.5% #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
9.0% #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 9.0% #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
9.5% #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 9.5% #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

Offer price (p) Offer price (p)

WACC (%) Perpetuity growth rate (%) WACC (%) Exit EBITDA multiple (x)
#VALUE! 0.00% 0.25% 0.50% 0.75% 1.00% #VALUE! 7.5x 8.0x 8.5x 9.0x 9.5x
7.5% #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 7.5% #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
8.0% #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 8.0% #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
8.5% #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 8.5% #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
9.0% #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 9.0% #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
9.5% #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 9.5% #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

Summary financials
March YE ($mm) 2017A 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E
EBITDA 108.7 109.5 98.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
% margin 9.9% 9.6% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
D&A (31.6) (34.9) (36.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
% of capex (87.5%) (93.6%) (116.1%) #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
EBIT 77.1 74.6 62.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
% margin 7.0% 6.6% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tax 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tax rate 0.0% 0.0% 19.0% 19.0% 17.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
EBIAT 59.5 58.4 48.3 44.5 39.9 60.5 68.5 68.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
+D&A 31.6 34.9 36.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
+ Maintenance capex (36.1) (37.3) (31.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
+Change in working capital (16.3) (12.6) (10.4) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
+ Exceptional cash flows 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
+ Other cash flows 0.0 (1.5) 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

FCF 38.7 41.9 43.6 44.5 39.9 60.5 68.5 68.7 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!