Kimberly Montañez Medina

Kimberly.montanezmedina@helsinki.fi
Climate now
Assignment 2

1. (Part 2.1 The carbon cycle)

2.

Calculate the average time an individual carbon dioxide molecule stays in the atmosphere. Despite
the result of that calculation, how is it possible to understand that the carbon emissions from fossil
fuels influence the atmospheric CO2 concentrations up to thousands of years?

To calculate the average residence time of a carbon dioxide molecule in the atmosphere, it is
necessary to know the total amount of carbon in the atmosphere and the total outflow. In this case,
according to the reference book, I will consider the carbon deposit in the atmosphere of about
850GtC and according to the IPCC 2013 the flux of the reservoir is about 203 Gt/yr (80 Gt to ocean
+ 123 Gt to life on land). Residence times of a given molecule in the 'reservoir', i.e., the atmosphere,
is reservoir size divided by the total flux, or inputs or outputs of the reservoir (if input is equal to
output).

850 𝐺𝑡 𝐶𝑂2
= 4.187 𝑌𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑠
𝐺𝑡 𝐺𝑡
80 𝐶𝑂2 + 123 𝐶𝑂2
𝑌𝑟 𝑌𝑟

In this case, I could say that the residence time of a CO2 molecule is 4 years and according with
different sources it can be a few years to a couple hundred years. However, the residence time of
CO2 is quite short, while the lifetime or adjustment time, which refers to the time it takes for an
excess amount of the gas in the atmosphere to decay to a fraction 1/e, is much longer (for a pulse
of additional CO2 about half is removed quickly, 5-15 years, 1/3 remains for ~ 100 years, and 1/5 for
thousands of years). Not all sources and sinks respond the same way to an increase. The reason is
that the CO2 sinks are not first order processes but react to an increase in atmospheric CO2. E.g.,
ocean CO2 uptake increases the surface ocean partial pressure of CO2, which reduces further CO2
uptake. Therefore, the multitude of time scales involved in the decay of a pulse CO2 input.

2. (part 2.2 Climate sensitivity and radiative forcing)

2. Compare the climate effects of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) using the
Slugulator model of the University of Chicago:
http://climatemodels.uchicago.edu/slugulator/.

a) Set the carbon dioxide emissions to 1,000 Gt. How much will the Earth’s average
temperature rise according to the model? When will warming stabilise?
 According to the model, the temperature of the earth will increase up to 3 ° C for
the first 28 years and then it will stabilise at 3 ° C for the first 100 years, then the
CO2 reacts and after 200 years the temperature will begin to decrease slowly and
will only be 1 ° C until after 6000 years, after that it will decrease very slowly until
after 1 million years, the temperature increase will be about 0 °C. *

b) Set methane emissions to 50 Gt. How much will the Earth’s average temperature
rise and when?
By increasing methane emissions, the earth's temperature will increase to 2.11 ° C
in the first 12 years, then the methane reacts and the temperature rise decreases
to 0 ° C after 70 years. *

* This description of what happens, I have it in mind with these specific cases, that
is, considering that there are no more emissions of methane or carbon dioxide,
that is why I refer to what the increase in temperature would "decrease" after the
reaction of methane or carbon dioxide occurs.

c) What do the radiative forcings of these gases look like? Why are the climate
effects of carbon dioxide and methane so different?

Carbon dioxide accounts for by far most of the radiative forcing since year 1, and
its contribution remains constant after 100 years. the radiative forcing on the
atmosphere is approximately logarithmic dependent on concentration. Therefore,
if you double the concentration of a gas in the atmosphere you get the same
radiative forcing, regardless of the starting concentration. Now, methane has a
much smaller atmospheric concentration in comparison to CO2. Therefore, the
absolute concentration change to double methane is much smaller than for CO2.
Because CH4 has a lifetime shorter than CO2 its global warming potential goes
down as the timeline increases.

Methane is, together with CO2, one of the main greenhouse gases. Although
carbon dioxide is responsible for about 80% of global warming, methane traps
more heat (radiative forcing). Fortunately, its concentration in the atmosphere is
much lower. Methane emissions are lower than carbon dioxide emissions, it is
considered a major greenhouse gas because each methane molecule has 25 times
the global warming potential of a carbon dioxide molecule.

2. Part (2.3 Feedbacks and threshold values)

1. The term “tipping point” is used parallel to the concept of “threshold value” in
climatology, and slightly less frequently also in ecology. Familiarise yourself with at
least the Wikipedia websites "Tipping point (climatology)" and "Ecological
 threshold" (+ other internet sources if you have time) and reflect on the differences
between these concepts and/or what they have in common.

A threshold is a point in a condition or process that once passed triggers some kind of change. A
tipping point has a similar meaning but is more related to systems: signifying a critical point after
which the system shifts radically and potentially irreversibly into a different equilibrium state.

A more general definition identifies a progression from ecosystem stability to stress, response
threshold, and finally replacement by a new ecosystem under changing environmental conditions.
Returning environmental conditions to a previous level does not always result in the previous state
of ecosystem performance.

if the threshold levels or tipping points are crossed, could generate serious or socially unacceptable
environmental change and / or irreversible consequences. One characteristic of a tipping point is
that it leads to abrupt shifts in the state of ecosystems.

Thanks to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations generated by human activities, the
increase in temperature has increased disproportionately and brings with it serious climatic, social,
and economic emergencies. The growing threat of rapid and irreversible change means that it is not
responsible to take a "wait and see" attitude. The situation is urgent, and it is necessary to respond
quickly and stop threats, depending on the response time we can further reduce the risk.

It is very difficult to abandon dependence on fossil fuels in the near future, therefore the
temperature of the earth is likely to rise faster than some experts or the IPCC predict. Tipping points
are complex and difficult to predict, but the fact that cascades of critical points can occur, and a
global tipping point cannot be ruled out, then means that we are facing an existential threat to
civilization.