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July 2023 1news Verian Poll Report
July 2023 1news Verian Poll Report
(Note, the new poll name reflects Kantar Public’s new brand name)
8 - 12 July 2023
Attention: Television New Zealand
POLL CONDUCTED: Interviewing took place from Saturday 8 to Wednesday 12 July 2023.
MEDIAN FIELDWORK DAY: Sunday (50% of sample size target was reached on this day).
INTERVIEW METHOD: Telephone and online. Conducted by CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone
Interviewing) and CAWI (Computer Assisted Web Interviewing).
SAMPLE SELECTION: Mobile: Random dialling of New Zealand mobile telephones using probability
sampling. Interviewers ask to speak to the main user of the phone who is aged 18
years or over. When required, multiple calls are made to reach that person. Voting
eligibility is determined at the first question.
Online: Interviews are collected by online panels, with quotas (or interviewing
targets) set to ensure the final sample is nationally representative. All respondents
are aged 18 or over. The panels used comply with the ESOMAR guidelines for online
research.
SAMPLE SIZE: n = 1,000 eligible voters, including n=500 polled via mobile phone and n=500 polled
online, using online panels.
SAMPLING ERROR: The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence
level. This is the sampling error for a result around 50%. Results higher and lower
than 50% have a smaller sampling error. For example, results around 10% and 5%
have sampling errors of approximately ±1.9%-points and ±1.4%-points, respectively,
at the 95% confidence level.
These sampling errors assume a simple random sample of 1,000 eligible voters.
It should be noted that any demographic sub-group analysis (e.g., by age or gender)
will be based on a smaller set of interviews and so will have a wider sampling error.
WEIGHTING: The data have been weighted to align with Stats NZ population counts for age,
gender, region, ethnic identification and education level.
REPORTED FIGURES: Reported bases are unweighted. For Party Support, percentages have been rounded
up or down to whole numbers, except those less than 4.5%, which are reported to
1 decimal place. For all other figures percentages have been rounded up or down to
whole numbers except those less than 1%, which are reported to 1 decimal place.
All sub-group differences listed for supplementary questions are statistically
significant at the 95% confidence level.
METHODOLOGY NOTES: The party vote question has been asked unprompted since February 1997.
Note: Undecided voters, non-voters and those who refused to answer are excluded from the data on party
support. The results are a snapshot in time of party support, and not a prediction.
This poll was conducted in accordance with the New Zealand Political Polling Code. Publication or reproduction
of the results must be acknowledged as the “1 NEWS Verian Poll”.
UNDECIDED VOTERS
Party Vote – Don’t know or refused 12% Steady from 20 to 24 May 2023
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Optimism 31% Up 1% -point
Pessimism 38% Down 4% -points
The results shown on this page, and the changes identified over time, are reported to the nearest whole
number. More detailed results are provided in the body of this report.
• On May 28, National party withdrew from the previously bi-partisan Medium Density Residential
Standards to improve housing supply and proposed their own urban development plan.
• On May 31, Secondary teachers’ union rejected pay offer from the Ministry of Education.
• On June 18, National proposed making gang membership an aggravating factor when it comes to
sentencing. Labour argued this factor is already used in sentencing.
• On 20 June, finance minister Grant Robertson announces market study on banking competition after
windfall profits were made in the sector during a cost-of-living crisis.
• On June 21, Michael Woods resigned as transport minister after it had been discovered he did not
declare his shares in Auckland Airport which caused a conflict of interest in his position as transport
minister.
• On June 29, Kiri Allan rejected claims made by the head of DOC that she treated staff badly.
• On June 29 the Privileges committee found Jan Tinetti misled parliament after she failed to correct
herself on a statement about the release of school attendance data.
• On July 7, Mid-wives receive 15% pay increase after strike action for pay equity.
• On July 7, PM Chris Hipkins travels to Europe to sign free trade deal with the EU.
Voting eligibility
“If a general election was held today, would you be eligible to vote?”
NOTE: Those not eligible to vote are excluded from the total sample size for this poll.
Likelihood to vote
“If a general election was held today, how likely would you be to vote?”
NOTE: Those claiming they would be ‘quite likely’ or ‘very likely’ to vote have been included in the party
support analysis.
Introduction
“Under MMP you get two votes.
Party vote
“Firstly thinking about the Party Vote which is for a political party.
IF DON’T KNOW
NOTE: Those who indicated the party they would be most likely to vote for have been included in the party
support analysis, provided they said they would be ‘quite likely’ or ‘very likely’ to vote.
IF NO ONE
“Is there anyone who is not a current MP who you would prefer to be Prime Minister?”
Economic outlook
“And do you think during the next 12 months the economy will be in a better state than at present, or in a
worse state?”
IF DON’T KNOW “Which one would you be most likely to vote for?”
30 Jul-3 17-21 Sep 26-30 Nov 25-29 Jan 4-8 Mar 20-24 May 8-12 July
Aug 2022 2022 2022 2023 2023 2023 2023
Don’t know 8% 10% 8% 9% 10% 9% 8%
Refused 3% 3% 3% 2% 4% 3% 3%
TOTAL 11% 13% 11% 11% 13% 12% 12%
Base (n=) 1,023 1,001 1,011 1,008 1,002 1,002 1,000
30 Jul-3
17-21 Sep 26-30 25-29 Jan 4-8 Mar 20-24 May 8-12 July
Aug
2022 Nov 2022 2023 2023 2023 2023
2022
National Party 37% 37% 38% 37% 34% 37% 35%
Labour Party 33% 34% 33% 38% 36% 35% 33%
ACT Party 11% 9% 11% 10% 11% 11% 12%
Green Party 9% 9% 9% 7% 11% 7% 10%
New Zealand First 2.6% 3.0% 3.6% 2.3% 3.1% 3.2% 3.1%
Te Pāti Māori / Māori 2.3% 1.6% 2.0% 1.4% 2.6% 2.4% 2.8%
Party
The Opportunities 1.9% 1.3% 1.7% 1.1% 1.0% 1.4% 1.7%
Party (TOP)
Freedoms New 0.8% 0.6% - 0.3% - 0.5% 0.8%
Zealand (nett)
- Freedoms
- - - - - - 0.7%
New Zealand
- New Nation
- - - - - 0.3% 0.1%
Party
- Vision New
0.8% 0.6% - 0.3% - 0.2% -
Zealand
DemocracyNZ - - 0.3% 0.7% 0.6% 0.7% 0.6%
ONE Party - - - 0.1% 0.1% - 0.5%
New Conservative 0.7% 1.0% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.6% 0.4%
Party
Aotearoa Legalise 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 0.7% 0.4% 0.7% 0.1%
Cannabis Party
NZ Outdoors & - 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% -
Freedom Party
Based on probed party supporters. *Percentages do not add to total due to rounding.
50%
40%
National
Labour
30%
20%
ACT
10%
Green
Māori
0%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
2
Preferred Prime Minister
“Now thinking about all current MPs of any party, which one would you personally prefer to be Prime
Minister?” IF NO ONE: “Is there anyone who is not a current MP who you would prefer to be Prime Minister?”
Other 2% 1% 1% 2% 2% 1% 1%
Don't know 31% 33% 28% 31% 33% 32% 32%
None 3% 2% 3% 3% 4% 3% 4%
Refused 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 2%
TOTAL 100%* 100%* 100%* 100%* 100%* 100%* 100%*
Base (n=) 1,023 1,001 1,011 1,008 1,002 1,002 1,000
Based on eligible New Zealand voters. *Percentages do not add to total due to rounding.
50
40
30
20
10
0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
John Key David Shearer David Cunliffe Andrew Little
Jacinda Ardern Bill English Simon Bridges Judith Collins
David Seymour Christopher Luxon Chris Hipkins
Economic outlook
“And do you think during the next 12 months the economy will be in a better state than at present, or in a
worse state?”
30 Jul-3 17-21 Sep 26-30 Nov 25-29 Jan 4-8 Mar 20-24 May 8-12 July
Aug 2022 2022 2022 2023 2023 2023 2023
Better 26% 36% 18% 28% 25% 30% 31%
Same 25% 26% 21% 31% 27% 28% 31%
Worse 49% 38% 61% 41% 47% 42% 38%
TOTAL 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%* 100% 100%
Base (n=) 1,023 1,001 1,011 1,008 1,002 1,002 1,000
Based on eligible New Zealand voters. *Percentages do not add to total due to rounding.
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Better Worse 11
Capital Gains tax on property
“A capital gains tax is a tax on the profit made when selling something. Do you oppose or support capital
gains being taxed when people sell…”
Just over half of eligible voters (52%) support a capital gains tax on the profit from selling a rental property,
while a much smaller proportion of (16%) support a capital gains tax on the profit from selling a family home.
Those groups of eligible voters who are more likely than average (52%) to support a capital gains tax on rental
properties include:
• Green party supporters (73%)
• Labour party supporters (62%)
• People aged 70+ (62%).
Those groups of eligible voters who are more likely than average (37%) to oppose a capital gains tax on rental
properties include:
Those groups of eligible voters who are more likely than average (16%) to support a capital gains tax on family
homes include:
• Green Party supporters (34%)
• Men aged 18 to 34 (29%)
• Those with an annual household income between $30,001 and $70,000 (21%).
Nearly half of eligible voters (47%) believe that race relations in New Zealand are getting worse, while only
14% feel they are getting better.
Those groups of eligible voters who are more likely than average (47%) to believe race relations are getting
worse include:
• Act Party supporters (69%)
• National Party supporters (58%)
• People aged 35 to 54 (51%) and 55+ (57%).
Those groups of eligible voters who are more likely than average (14%) to believe that race relations are
getting better include:
• Residents of the Wellington region (23%).
Just over two-thirds of eligible voters (68%) support secondary teacher strikes, while a quarter (25%) oppose
them.
Those groups of eligible voters who are more likely than average (68%) to support the strikes include:
• Green Party supporters (88%)
• Māori (84%)
• Women aged 18-34 (82%)
• Those with an annual household income between $100,001 and $150,000 (76%)
• University graduates (73%).
Those groups of eligible voters who are more likely than average (25%) to oppose the strikes are:
• Men aged 55+ (38%)
• Act Party supporters (37%)
• National Party supporters (31%)
• New Zealand European (28%).
Eligible voters are relatively evenly split between believing Chris Hipkins is doing a good job managing his
ministers (40%) and believing he is not doing a good job (39%).
Those groups of eligible voters who are more likely than average (40%) to believe Chris Hipkins is doing a good
job managing his ministers include:
• Labour party supporters (69%)
• Green party supporters (54%).
Those groups of eligible voters who are more likely than average (39%) to believe Chris Hipkins is not doing a
good job managing his ministers include:
• Men aged 35-54 (51%) and men aged 55+ (48%).
• Those with an annual household income of more than $150,000 (50%)
• National party supporters (66%)
• Act party supporters (65%).
Number of seats
National Party 46
Labour Party 43
ACT Party 15
Green Party 12
Te Pāti Māori 4
TOTAL 120
It is applied to all the parties which are eligible, either by exceeding the 5% threshold or by winning at least
one electorate seat. More information about the St Laguë method can be obtained directly from the Electoral
Commission.