List of unsolved problems in economics (Morgenstern, Thirteen critical points in contemporary

economic theory), (Kahneman và Smith), (Machina và Mark)

This is a list of some of the major unsolved problems, puzzles, or questions in neoclassical economics.
Some of these are theoretical in origin and some of them concern the inability of orthodox economic
theory to explain an empirical observation.

Behavioral economics

Revealed preference

Does Revealed Preference theory truly reveal consumer preference when the consumer is able
to afford all of the available options? For example, if a consumer is confronted with three goods
and they can afford to purchase all three (A, B, and C) and they choose to first purchase A, then
C, and then B - does this suggest that the consumer preference for the goods is A > C > B? The
debate rests on the fact that since the consumer can afford all three goods and does not need
to make a preferential decision, does the order of consumption reflect any preference [1]?
Tâtonnement

The act of tâtonnement plays a key role in the formulation of general equilibrium theory. The
claim is that if an initial contract does not lead to an equilibrium, it is ended and new contracts
are formulated. If the initial contract is not called off, it will likely lead to a different set of
prices, depending on the degree of error in the original process. The question is whether
successive re-contracting continues with the parties forgetting the previously planned positions
taken or whether the parties engage in a form of tâtonnement to achieve optimality [1]. See
also Hill climbing and Walrasian auction.
Unified models of human biases

Neoclassical economics has concentrated on the development of models that reflect an

idealized economic agent, sometimes referred to as Homo economicus, as a way of studying
economics. In the period spanning the 1970s to the 1990s, research began to emerge that
suggested that people were subject to cognitive biases such as the framing effect, loss aversion,
the gambler's fallacy, confirmation bias, and many others. Further, these effects could produce
anomalies such as herd behavior or momentum investing inconsistent with economic models
that did not incorporate human psychological limitations.[2] While some models have begun to
include bounded rationality and risk aversion, such as prospect theory, there still remains to be
seen a unified model that can make useful predictions that incorporates the entirety of
cognitive biases and rational limitations in most humans.[3] Further, there even exists debate
as to whether it is necessary to incorporate such psychological limitations into economic
models. While some economists insist they are necessary to fully appreciate the complexity of
the market, others still contend that a model that incorporates human biases is either
unrealistic or question its usefulness arguing that a model that doesn't approximate agents as
being perfectly rational, with the possibility of minimal exceptions, is unlikely to be successful
[3][4].
Financial economics

Equity premium puzzle

The equity premium puzzle is thought to be one of the most important outstanding questions in
neoclassical economics [5]. It is founded on the basis that over the last one hundred years or so
the average real return to stocks in the US has been substantially higher than that of bonds. The
puzzle lies in the explaining the causes behind this equity premium. While there are a number
of different theories regarding the puzzle, there still exists no definitive agreement on its cause
[6].
Dividend puzzle

The dividend puzzle is the empirically observed phenomenon that companies that pay
dividends tend to be rewarded by investors with higher valuations. At present, there is no
explanation widely accepted by economists [7][8][9]. The Modigliani-Miller theorem suggests
that the puzzle can (only) be explained by some combination of taxes, bankruptcy costs, market
inefficiency (including that due to investor psychology), and asymmetric information.
Improved Black–Scholes and binomial options pricing models

The Black–Scholes model and the more general binomial options pricing models are a collection
of equations that seek to model and price equity and call options. While the models are widely
used, they have many significant limitations [10]. Chief among them are the model's inability to
account for historical market movements [11] and their frequent overpricing of options, with
the overpricing increasing with the time to maturity [12]. The development of a model that can
properly account for the pricing of call options on an asset with stochastic volatility is
considered an open problem in financial economics [12]. Recently a mean bound financial
model was proposed to solve this problem [13].
Problems with the American option

Is there a closed form for American put options? Is there a forward partial differential equation
for the American Option in a local volatility model?
International economics

Home bias in trade puzzle

The home bias in trade puzzle is an empirical observation that even when factors such as
economic size of trading partners and the distance between them are considered, trade
between regions within a given country is substantially greater than trade between regions in
different countries, even when there are no substantial legal barriers. There is currently no
framework to explain this observation [14][15].
Equity home bias puzzle

This puzzle concerns the observation that individuals and institutions in many countries only
hold modest amounts of foreign equity, despite the ability for vast diversification of their
portfolios in the global economy [14]. While some explanations do exist, such as that local
individuals and firms have greater access to information about local firms and economic
conditions, these explanations are not accepted by the majority of economists and have been
mostly refuted [16].
Backus–Kehoe–Kydland puzzle

The Backus–Kehoe–Kydland consumption correlation puzzle is the empirical observation that

consumption is much less correlated across countries than output [14]. Standard economic
theory suggests that country-specific output risks should be collective and domestic
consumption growth should not depend strongly on country-specific income shocks. Thus, we
should not see the observation that consumption is much less correlated across countries than
output; and yet we do [17] [18].
Feldstein–Horioka puzzle

The Feldstein-Horioka puzzle originates from an article in the 1980s that found that among
OECD countries, averages of long-term national savings rates are highly correlated with similar
averages of domestic investment rates. Standard economic theory suggests that in relatively
open international financial markets, the savings of any country would flow to countries with
the most productive investment opportunities; hence, saving rates and domestic investment
rates would be uncorrelated, contrary to the empirical evidence suggested by Martin Feldstein
and Charles Horioka. While numerous articles regarding the puzzle have been published, none
of the explanations put forth have adequate empirical support [14].
PPP Puzzle

The PPP puzzle, considered one of the two real exchange rate puzzles, concerns the observation
that real exchange rates are both more volatile and more persistent than most models would
suggest. The only clear way to understand this volatility would be to assign substantial roles to
monetary and financial shocks. However, if shocks play such a large role the challenge becomes
finding what source, if one even exists, of nominal rigidity that could be so persistent to explain
the long-term prolonged nature of real exchange rate deviations [14].
The exchange rate disconnect puzzle

The exchange rate disconnect puzzle, also one of the so-called real exchange rate puzzles,
concerns the weak short-term feedback link between exchange rates and the rest of the
economy. In most economies, the exchange rate is the most important relative price, so it is
surprising, and thus far unexplained entirely, that the correlations are not stronger [14].
References

Oskar Morgenstern (1972). "Thirteen critical points in contemporary economic theory". Journal of
Economic Literature. 10: 1163–1189. JSTOR 2721542.

"Foundations of Behavioral and Experimental Economics: Daniel Kahneman and Vernon Smith" (PDF)
(Press release). The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences. 17 December 2002.

Machina, Mark (1987). "Choice under Uncertainty: Problems Solved and Unsolved" (PDF). Journal of
Economic Perspectives. 1 (1): 121–154. doi:10.1257/jep.1.1.121.

Krugman, Paul (2 September 2009), "How Did Economists Get It So Wrong?", The New York Times

"Has Barro solved the equity premium puzzle?". New Economist weblog. 2005-09-29.

Narayana R. Kocherlakota (March 1996). "The Equity Premium: It's Still a Puzzle" (PDF). Journal of
Economic Literature. 34: 42–71.

Borges, Maria Rosa (July 2008), Is The Dividend Puzzle Solved? (PDF)

Prast, Henriette (March 2004), Investor psychology: a behavioral explanation of six finance puzzles (PDF)

Bernheim, B. Douglas (1991). "Tax Policy and the Dividend Puzzle". RAND Journal of Economics. 22 (4):
455–476. doi:10.2307/2600982.

http://www.wilmott.com/blogs/paul/index.cfm/2008/4/29/Science-in-Finance-IX-In-defence-of-Black-
Scholes-and-Merton

Baggett, L. Scott; Thompson, James; Williams, Edward; Wojciechowski, William (October 2006). "Nobels
for nonsense". Journal of Post Keynesian Economics. 29 (1): 3–18. doi:10.2753/pke0160-3477290101.

Hull, John; White, Alan (June 1987). "The Pricing of Options on Assets with Stochastic Volatilities".
Journal of Finance. 42 (2): 281–300. doi:10.1111/j.1540-6261.1987.tb02568.x.

Li, Yu (December 2017). "A mean bound financial model and options pricing". International journal of
financial engineering. 4 (4). doi:10.1142/S2424786317500475.

Obstfeld, Maurice; Rogoff, Kenneth (2000), "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is
There a Common Cause?", in Bernanke, Ben; Rogoff, Kenneth, NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, 15,
The MIT Press, pp. 339–390, ISBN 0-262-02503-5

Edmond, Chris, Note 8a from course 316–632 "International Monetary Economics" (PDF) (Handout)

Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn; Veldkamp, Laura (July 2005). "Information Immobility and the Home Bias
Puzzle". NYU Working Paper. FIN-04-026. ssrn 1294476.

Backus, David K.; Kehoe, Patrick J.; Kydland, Finn E. (1992), "International Real Business Cycles", Journal
of Political Economy, 100: 745–775, doi:10.1086/261838
Backus, David K.; Kehoe, Patrick J.; Kydland, Finn E. (1995), "International Business Cycles: Theory and
Evidence", in Cooley, Tom, Frontiers of Business Cycle Research, Princeton University Press, ISBN 0-691-
04323-X

(Morgenstern, Thirteen critical points in contemporary economic theory)

(Kahneman và Smith)

(Machina và Mark)

1 Bibliography
Morgensstern. "title." Economic 10.2 (1972): 1163.

Morgenstern, Oskar. "Thirteen critical points in contemporary economic theory." Journal of Economic
Literature 10 (1972): 1163-1189.

—. "Thirteen critical points in contemporary economic theory." Journal of Economic Literature (1972):
1163-1189.

Kahneman, Daniel and Vernon Smith. "Foundations of Behavioral and Experimental Economics." The
Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences (17 December 2002).

Machina and Mark. "Choice under Uncertainty: Problems Solved and Unsolved." Journal of Economic
Perspective (1987): 121-154.