3.

3 Solutions 3-25

2. Analyzing a Forecasting Data Source

a. Open the browser and sign in to SAS Viya.
b. Open the VA2-Practice3.2 report in the Courses/YVA285/Advanced/Practices folder.
1) In the upper left corner, click (Show list of applications) and select Explore and
Visualize. SAS Visual Analytics appears.
2) Click All Reports.
3) Navigate to the Courses/YVA285/Advanced/Practices folder.
4) Double-click the VA2-Practice3.2 report to open it.
c. Create a forecast by assigning data items to the appropriate roles.
1) In the canvas, click the forecasting object to select it.
2) In the right pane, click Roles.
3) For the Time axis role, select Add  Date.
4) For the Measure role, click Frequency and select Injuries from Motor Vehicle
Accidents.
The forecasting object should resemble the following:

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3-26 Lesson 3 Restructuring Data for Forecasting

d. View details about the forecast and answer the question.

1) In the upper right corner of the forecasting object, click (Maximize) to view details
about the forecast.
2) At the bottom of the chart, click Dependent Variables Results to view details about the
forecasting algorithm.
Which algorithm is selected for the forecast?
Answer: Seasonal Exponential Smoothing

e. Modify options for the forecasting object to change the forecast horizon to two
years.
1) In the right pane, click Options.
2) In the Forecast group, in the Forecast horizon field, enter 24.
The updated forecast should resemble the following:

f. Add the measures to the Underlying factors role in the forecast.

1) In the right pane, click Roles.
2) For the Underlying factors role, click Add.
a) Select the following data items:
Tourism Index (Difference from previous period)
DV Ratio
b) Click OK.

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 3.3 Solutions 3-27

Which measures, if any, were selected as underlying factors and applied to the forecast ?
Answer: Tourism Index (Difference from previous period)

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3-28 Lesson 3 Restructuring Data for Forecasting

3) At the bottom of the chart, click Dependent Variables Results to view details about the
forecasting algorithm.
Which algorithm is now selected for the forecast?
Answer: ARIMA

4) In the upper right corner of the forecasting object, click (Restore).

g. Perform scenario analysis on the forecast by increasing the underlying factor by a constant
value of 10.
1) In the right pane, click Roles.
2) For the Forecast role, click What If. The What-If Analysis window appears.
3) On the right side of the window, select Scenario Analysis.

4) In the upper left corner of the window, click (Menu) and select Set series values.
The Set Series Values window appears.
5) For the Change all future values for the selected series field, verify that Forecast:
Tourism Index (Difference from previous period) is specified.
Note: You are performing scenario analysis, so you must set desired values for the
underlying factor (Tourism Index).
6) For Adjust series value, select By constant value.
7) In the By constant value field, enter 10 and press Enter.

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 3.3 Solutions 3-29

The Set Series Values window should resemble the following:

8) Click OK.
As an alternative, you can drag the markers in the chart to set the target values for the
underlying factor or you can enter values directly in the table cells.
9) On the right side of the window, click Apply.
10) Click Close to save the results.
The results are applied to the forecasting object in the report.

11) Answer the following questions:

How does increasing the underlying factor impact the forecast?
Answer: Increasing the number of tourists increases the number of injuri es from
motor vehicle accidents near the end of the next year.
h. Save the report.

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