ROAD ACCIDENT ANALYSIS OF ROURKELA CITY

MD. ARIFUR RAHMAN SHANTO

119CE0049

Under guidance of
Prof. P.K Bhuyan

DEPARMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING

NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY

ROURKELA-769008
 NATIONAL INSTITUTE OFTECHNOLOGY

ROURKELA – 769008
CERTIFICATE

This is to certify that the project entitled "Road Accident analysis of Rourkela

city" presented by Md. Arifur Rahman Shanto as a prerequisite for the grant

of Bachelor Of Technology Degree in Civil Engineering at National Institute

of Technology, Rourkela is a true work completed by him under my

supervision and direction. To the best of my learning the matter epitomized in

this report has not been submitted in any school/institute for awarding degree

or diploma.

Prof. P.K Bhuyan

Department of civil Engineering
National Institute of Technology
Rourkela -769008
 TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. Acknowledgment…………………………………………………….....….1

2.List of tables……………………………………………………………..….2

3.List of figures…………………………………………….……………...….2

4.Abstract………………………………………………………...…………...3

5.Introduction…………………………………………...………………….…4

6. Potential of GIS …………………………………….…………….………………….…….5

7. Literature review……………………………………………………………6-7

8. Methodology …………………………………………………..…………….8

9. Study area and Data collection…………………………………………….9-13

10. Analysis and Results……………………………………………..….….14-16

11.Buffer analysis……………………………………………………..……17-18

12. Accident prediction using MAT LAB………………………………….19-22

13. Critical review………………………………………………………….22-23

14. Summary…………………………………..……………………………24

11. Conclusion……………………………………………………………….25

13. References…………………………………………………….………26-27
 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

I want to express my gratitude to NIT Rourkela for giving me the chance to use their

resources and work in such a demanding setting. I would like to use this opportunity to

first and foremost thank my mentor PROF.PRASANTA KUMAR BHUYAN for his

expert guidance during the project effort. Without his assistance and the priceless time he

sacrificed amidst his hectic schedule, this project would not have been feasible. My

appreciation also goes out to PROF. CHITARANJAN PATRA, Head of the Civil

Engineering Department. who has always been supportive of my work and pushed me to

do it. Last but not least, I want to express my gratitude to the entire Department of Civil

Engineering employees for their excellent cooperation.

MD. ARIFUR RAHMAN SHANTO

119CE0049
DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING
NIT ROURKELA
 TABLES
Table Title Page No
No
1 Data on Accidents 11-13

2 Average annual traffic 14

volume and yearly accidents

FIGURES LIST

Figure Title Page No.

no
1 Rourkela road map 10
2 Variation in accidents annually 14
3 Network of roads in ARC GIS 15
4 Map of Rourkela's zoning 16
5 Boundary zones 18
6 The use of linear regression 20
7 polynomial regression of 6 degrees 21
 ABSTRACT

Accident evaluation research goal on the identity of excessive fee coincidence region,

safety poor regions and the injuries inclined zones inside Rourkela city, the use of GIS.

For this cause the street coincidence statistics for seven consecutive years, relating

Rourkela city must be used. Accident details like year, region, kind of car involved, are

blanketed in GIS database. The buffer characteristic to be had withinside the spatial

analyst extension of Arc GIS software program became to be implemented to become

aware of the coincidence inclined regions in Rourkela. The road geometry may be

measured in coincidence inclined region to discover the motive of coincidence, primarily

based totally on those result, concept are to be furnished to lessen the frequency of injuries

at that precise place. Accidents prediction is finished via way of means of regressing

visitors quantity with coincidence statistics to obtain an equation that may understand the

forth coming injuries withinside the future. Preventive measures concerning the

development of visitors situation for minimizing injuries fee are suggested

 INTRODUCTION:
The transportation problems faced by different urban areas require
the search for strategies or options that guarantee productive, safe,
accessible and fast transportation. It is found that India now records
almost 10% of the fatal accidents worldwide, more than 1300000
people are actually injured on Indian roads every year; Travel
security has become a real concern. The progress of transportation
in urban areas has not kept pace with the roads both in size and in
quality, as a result of this the use of organized transport, mainly
bicycles and inefficient transport, growing rapidly. The poor
development of roads, illegal violations in road spaces, the lack of
road systems and road systems and the poor quality of traffic
control have contributed to the growing problem of congestion in
urban areas. Advances in GIS and GPS can be put to effective use
in emergency investigations. Although GIS has been used for over
two decades, it is only recently that it has been used in
transportation. In addition to promoting the connection between
different types of data on maps, GIS is able to simulate and visually
display many types of data for easy understanding. GIS is a
technology for managing and organizing location and related
information. It visually displays the results of the analysis thus
enabling sophisticated analysis and quick decision making.
Development of systems and using GIS to analyze road accidents
further to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of the road
accident management system. In addition to this, GIS will make the
research less time-consuming and tedious, which will be more
active. Therefore, GIS will provide a platform to continuously
update and update the accident record database and use it for further
research.
 Potential of GIS:
GIS, or Geographic Information System, is a powerful tool used for visualizing and

analyzing spatial data. It possesses unique characteristics that allow for the modeling of

physical proximity between spatial features.. An effective part of GIS is flexibility in

displaying spatial information according to application requirements. It provides skills to

store and maintain large data. GIS establishes the relationship between different streams of

emergency data. GIS allows safety professionals to analyze roadway crashes with land use

and geographic data or population and other demographic data to better understand the

relationship between accidents and accidents. is local data that can be incorporated into the

accident record to provide a better picture. . The visualization capabilities of GIS help map

FIR data to geometric data.

 LITERATURE REVIEW:

GIS allows users to display information in an area. GIS offers the capability to establish

connections between multiple databases that were previously unrelated. This integration of

spatial data with identification information is particularly valuable and serves as a key

aspect of GIS as a management tool. The reviewed literature highlights the widespread use

of GIS in transportation, encompassing data maintenance and basic data analysis. Several

case studies demonstrate how GIS facilitates the integration of various transportation

components.

Meyer and Sarasua (1996) proposed the concept of a shared and coordinated database

system that encompasses different aspects of transportation management. This

comprehensive system would encompass areas such as traffic, pavement, bridges, safety,

intermodal operations, and public transportation. The objective is to create a unified

platform that supports all facets of transportation management through the utilization of

GIS.

A research that is identical to this one, demonstrating that using GIS

Through the creation of maps and graphical presentations, a pavement management
programme enhances data reporting and analysis.

Affum and Taylor (1996) detailed the creation of a GIS-based programme. A method for

evaluating the safety of a local area traffic management system has been developed. This

method involves analyzing accident patterns over a period of time and assessing the

associated safety benefits.

GIS may be used to assess the state of roads and surface conditions. When Gharaibeh et al.
(1994) suggested using GIS to perform statistical and geographical assessments of

roadway attributes such as safety, congestion level, and pavement problems, they

demonstrated this.

Two scientists conducted a distinct research, which further demonstrated the GIS's

capacity to serve as a management system framework has been developed to provide a

structured approach for effective organizational management. It brought attention to the

fact that more data access benefited many transportation analysts. The main factor in

making data more accessible is the creation of the geographic referencing scheme.

In 1995 Deloar, Faghir and Rahman created a information system for traffic accidents

based on their system had information about the frequency of occurrences at every given

location (mile-point) on a route, as well as information regarding the circumstances of the

incident site.

According to Ogunbodede E. F., if a GIS is constructed on a correctly designed database

that can also be updated often, it can be utilised to maintain a livable flow of traffic in

metropolitan environments.

A GIS-based model was created by Mukti Advani, B. Srirama, and S. K. Pathan with the

aim of reducing user trip distance and time. Impedance at intersections, the type of road,

and speed were taken into account as constraints.

 METHODOLOGY:
DATA COLLECTION:
To identify vulnerable areas, these data should be collected and used.

Map of Police Station limits obtained from the Office of the Superintendent of

Police, Rourkela.

1. A seven-year follow-up accident report..

2.Average traffic volume for seven consecutive years.

ASSINGING ATTRIBUTES:

Separate attribute tables will be present for each type of vector data, such as line, polygon,

and point features. Using the city map provided from the police station, each route is given

its matching name in this location. Similar information can be found in the accident

location attribute table.

 AREA OF STUDY AND COLLECTION OF DATA:
AREA OF STUDY:

According to a survey conducted in Rourkela, Odisha, India, Rourkela is situated at

84.54E longitude and 22.12N latitude in the Sundorgarh region of Odisha, at a height of
approximately 219 meters above mean ocean level. There are about 200 square
kilometers in the Rourkela region. Geographically, Rourkela is uneven and undulating.
Two preserved forests now surround the area where the city was formerly completely
surrounded by forests. North and south of the town are the Sonparbat and Durgapur
forests, respectively.
In the western part of the city, the Brahmani River flows.The Koel and the Sankh, two
small tributaries that flow at Rourkela's edge, come together to form this seasonal river.

After the Rourkela steel plant was built here, some areas of the city of Rourkela were
developed. The older, more established part of the city is known as Purana Rourkela,
which includes Entabatti and Phulbari.
Ambagh, Rourkela civil Township, and Pamposh are the city's newest neighbourhoods.
Uditt Nogor, Panposh, Am Bagan, Railway Colony, and the Industrial Estate are the
occupied urban areas.
The majority of South Rourkela's territory is rural, including Jalda, Lathikanta, Pikodih,
Tangorpalli, and Taraapur. In the surrounding ranges, the majority of the people are
tribal.
Rourkela is situated along National Highway No. 23, which runs through the city and
serves as a major transportation route. This highway connects Jhaarkhand, transferring
through Rourkela, to Taalcher in Odisha, where it intersects with National Highway No.
42.
 FIGURE : ROAD MAP OF ROURKELA

4.1 : DATA COLLECTION:

The FIR (First Information Report) filed with the police stations is the only

source of information accessible for accident research. The information from

these records for the seven most recent years (2016–2022) was taken from the

FIR record submitted under IPC no from:

 Area 3:
SI.NO YEAR FATAL ACCIDENTS MINOR ACCIDENTS
1 2016 4 8
2 2017 3 8
3 2018 3 6
4 2019 1 3
5 2020 2 4
6 2021 2 6
7 2022 2 8

Area 4:
SI.NO YEAR FATAL ACCIDENTS MINOR ACCIDENTS
1 2016 6 13
2 2017 5 15
3 2018 6 15
4 2019 5 14
5 2020 7 21
6 2021 5 14
7 2022 8 13

Area 5:
SI.NO YEAR FATAL ACCIDENTS MINOR ACCIDENTS
1 2016 3 12
2 2017 2 10
3 2018 3 12
4 2019 2 9
5 2020 5 11
6 2021 1 10
7 2022 0 9

Area 6:
SI.NO YEAR FATAL ACCIDENTS MINOR ACCIDENTS
1 2016 4 16
2 2017 3 19
3 2018 5 15
4 2019 5 19
5 2020 3 16
6 2021 1 15
7 2022 2 16
Area 7:
SI.NO YEAR
1 2016
2 2017
3 2018
4 2019
5 2020
6 2021
7 2022
FATAL ACCIDENTS MINOR ACCIDENTS
5 15
2 14
4 12
5 15
8 13
7 14
6 15

The primary source of information on traffic volume and a road map is P.W.D. (Public
Works Department) records. Along with the above-mentioned data, PWD records also
contained information on road conditions. At Bisra Chowk, a traffic survey was
undertaken. The 2006 count year's traffic volume was extracted and shown in PCU/day
form. It is presumed that the study stretch's traffic volume is constant. As annual traffic
census statistics were not available for all years, the data that were available were utilized
to forecast the amount of traffic on a route in each year from 2016 to 2022. Forecasting the
typical PCU/day was done using the geometric growth formula.

TABLE : Average annual trafficvolume and yearly accidents

SI.NO Year Number of accidents Avg PCU/day

1 2016 103 23215.21
2 2017 99 19101.60
3 2018 102 226723.21
*4 2019 94 23125.87
*5 2020 106 24968.62
*6 2021 91 27152.48
*7 2022 94 28669.21
 ANALYSIS AND RESULTS:
5.1 ANNUAL VARIATION OF ACCIDENTS:

There has been a noticeable upward trend in the occurrence of accidents throughout most
of the year. Particularly, there was a significant surge in the number of accidents in 2017,
which could be attributed to a rise in commercial vehicles and insufficient maintenance of
the roads.

100
Number of accidents

90

80

70

60

50
Fatal
Minor
40

30

20

10

0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
years

FIGURE : ANNUAL VARIATION OF ACCIDENT

 PREPARATION OF MAP:

Steps:

I. To obtain an image of the city of Rourkela, I utilized the snipping tool to capture a
screenshot from Google.

II. After importing the image into ARC GIS, I layered it and proceeded to trace a polyline
on a separate layer, following the contours of the city as depicted in the image. This
process allowed me to create a layered map of Rourkela.

III. Georeferencing was then conducted in ARC GIS, using four ground control points to
accurately align the map with the geographic coordinates of Rourkela.

IV. The map was subsequently fully digitized, converting it into a digital format that can
be easily manipulated and analyzed within the ARC GIS platform.

FIGURE : ROAD NETWORK OF ROURKELA IN ARC GIS

 ASSIGNING ATTRIBUTES:

Using ESRI ARC GIS, the road network of Rourkela is systematically divided into seven
zones represented by polygon entities. For each of these zones, a corresponding table of
attributes is generated to store relevant information and data.

FIGURE : ZONING OF ROURKELA MAP

 BUFFER ANALYSIS:

ARCGIS, a powerful geographic information system (GIS) tool, is utilized to analyze and
visualize areas with a higher likelihood of accidents and to generate recommendations for
accident prevention. The analysis employs a technique called proximity analysis, which
enables the identification of accident-prone areas by examining the overlap of buffer areas.
Buffering and overlay, two commonly employed cartographic modeling processes, play a
significant role in this analysis.

Buffering involves creating an area around a map feature that is a specific distance away
from it, resulting in a set of polygons. These polygons can be generated by buffering points
or lines, effectively delineating an outer zone, located farther away from the features of
interest than the buffer distance, and an inner region, situated closer to the features. Inside
and outside sections of the buffer zones are often distinguished using various codes in the
attribute table.

In order to graphically represent the results of the statistical and spatial study, the various
thematic maps generated through the buffering and overlay processes are layered and
connected with the entire attribute data on the GIS platform. By prioritizing the identified
accident-prone areas, specific locations where accidents are more likely to occur are
determined. Based on the exact location information, recommendations for appropriate
corrective actions can be generated.

The buffer analysis technique in ARCGIS provides valuable insights into accident-prone
areas by considering the spatial relationships between features and their surrounding
zones. This information aids in understanding the underlying factors contributing to
accidents and helps stakeholders, such as city planners or transportation departments, in
implementing targeted interventions and preventive measures. By leveraging the
capabilities of ARCGIS, decision-makers can make informed choices regarding
infrastructure improvements, traffic management strategies, and other initiatives aimed at
reducing accidents and enhancing overall safety.

FIGURE : BUFFER AREAS

 ACCIDENT PREDICTION USING MAT LAB:-

The Curve Fitting Toolbox is a valuable resource that offers various functions for fitting
curves and surfaces to data. This toolbox is particularly useful for conducting exploratory
data analysis, such as regression analysis. In the context of studying accidents, the toolbox
can be utilized to establish a relationship between the number of accidents per year and the
average daily traffic volume.

Two regression cases are considered in this analysis: straight line regression and 6-degree
polynomial regression. These cases demonstrate the extreme possibilities for fitting curves
to the accident data and average traffic volume. The goal is to obtain the best fit curve that
accurately represents the relationship between the variables. The calculations are specific.
based on the chosen regression model, and the resulting curve is plotted for visualization.

The regression's precision analysis assessed using various metrics. One important metric
is the correlation coefficient (R), which measures the strength and direction of the linear
relationship between the variables. A value close to one indicates a higher degree of curve
to the data. The regression coefficient, which represents the regression line's standardised
slope, provides insight into the relationship between the two variables and serves as an
indicator of the relationship's strength.

The coefficient of determination (R2) is another crucial metric that reveals the proportion
of the variance in accidents per year that can be predicted from the average traffic volume
per year. A higher R2 value signifies a greater ability to predict accidents based on traffic
volume.

In regression analysis, the least squares method is commonly employed to select the line
that minimizes the sum of the squared prediction errors (SSE). A lower SSE indicates a
more accurate result, as the line is better able to fit the observed data points.

Overall, the Curve Fitting Toolbox facilitates the analysis of accident data and traffic
volume, allowing for the identification of meaningful relationships and the prediction of
accidents based on traffic patterns.
 Inference:

The resulting curve exhibits poor accuracy, indicated by a low coefficient of correlation
and a high sum of squared errors. Consequently, an alternative polynomial equation is
tailored to the data, and its correlation coefficient (R) and coefficient of determination (R2)
are compared to those of the previous equation.
This process is repeated multiple times by incrementing the degree of the polynomial
equation by one each time. The parameters of each customized equation are recorded and
compared to evaluate their respective performances

Inference:
Given that the dataset consists of only seven consecutive years, the most suitable curve for
fitting the data is determined to be a 6-degree polynomial equation. This conclusion is
supported by the regression coefficient, which has a value of 0.92, indicating a strong
correlation between the variables and confirming the appropriateness of the selected
polynomial degree.

Critical Review

The analysis of road accidents in Rourkela for a research project aimed to investigate the
factors contributing to accidents and develop strategies for enhancing road safety. While
the research project has potential, there are several areas that require critical review to
ensure the validity and reliability of the analysis. This review aims to identify the strengths
and weaknesses of the Rourkela Road accident analysis.

Strengths:

1. Data Collection: The research project demonstrates a comprehensive approach to

data collection by gathering accident data from various police stations in Rourkela.
This ensures a broader representation of accidents across the city.
2. GIS Application: The use of GIS, particularly the ARC GIS software, allows for
spatial analysis and visualization of accident-prone areas. This tool facilitates better
understanding and identification of high-risk zones.
3. Multiple Regression Analysis: The inclusion of multiple regression analysis in the
project helps establish relationships between accident occurrence and average traffic
volume per day, providing valuable insights into contributing factors.

Weaknesses:

1. Data Quality: The accuracy and reliability of the accident data used in the analysis
should be scrutinized. It is crucial to assess the consistency, completeness, and
integrity of the data to ensure the validity of the findings.
 2. Limited Timeframe: The analysis is limited to a seven-year period, which may not
provide a comprehensive representation of long-term accident patterns.
Consideration of a broader timeframe could offer more reliable conclusions.
3. Lack of Comparative Analysis: The research project would benefit from a
comparative analysis, comparing Rourkela's accident rates with similar cities or
regions. This would provide a context for evaluating the effectiveness of the
proposed strategies.

Recommendations:

1. Data Verification: To enhance the reliability of the analysis, a rigorous verification

process should be conducted to ensure the accuracy and consistency of the accident
data used.
2. Long-Term Analysis: Extending the analysis to a longer timeframe would offer a
more comprehensive understanding of the trends and patterns of road accidents in
Rourkela.
3. Comparative Study: Conducting a comparative analysis with similar cities or
regions would provide valuable insights into the unique challenges faced by
Rourkela and help identify effective strategies.
 SUMMARY

The analysis of accidents in Rourkela city holds significant importance due to the
consistent increase in the accident rate over the span of seven consecutive years. To better
understand and address this issue, buffer analysis using the proximity analysis tool in ARC
GIS is conducted. By examining the overlapping areas of these buffer zones, accident-
prone locations within Rourkela can be identified. The necessary accident data for this
analysis is collected from various police stations in Rourkela.

Furthermore, a predictive model for accidents is developed by performing regression

analysis between the annual number of accidents and the average traffic volume using
MATLAB. The primary source of traffic volume data is the records obtained from the
Public Works Department (PWD). Additionally, information regarding road conditions is
gathered from the PWD records. A comprehensive traffic survey is conducted at Bisra
Chowk to collect data on traffic volume, which is then represented in terms of Passenger
Car Units (PCU) per day.

Through the regression analysis, it is determined that a 6-degree polynomial regression

provides the best fit curve for predicting accidents in Rourkela. This curve represents the
most suitable model for accident prediction in the city, considering the available data and
its relationship with traffic volume.

The combination of buffer analysis and regression modelling offers valuable insights into
the factors contributing to accidents in Rourkela. By identifying accident-prone areas
through buffer analysis and utilizing the predictive model, stakeholders and authorities can
gain a better understanding of the situation and make informed decisions regarding road
safety measures, traffic management, and infrastructure improvements.
 CONCLUSION

Zone 7 has been identified as having a higher concentration of critical areas prone to
accidents. Several factors contribute to this observation:

1. Sight distance obstruction near curves caused by dense trees and ditches along the
curve shoulder.
2. Presence of numerous dhabas (roadside restaurants) and garages for heavy
machinery on both sides of the road, leading to on-street parking and reduced road
capacity.
3. Bus stops located on the carriageway and shoulder near the cross junctions.
4. Sight distance obstruction at curves due to overgrown bushes and trees.

Zone 1 is also susceptible to accidents due to various reasons:

1. Heavy traffic flow from commercial and non-commercial vehicles.

2. Unsignalized intersections, potentially leading to conflicts between vehicles.
3. Increased truck accidents due to the route being used for transportation to the
Rourkela Steel Plant (RSP).
4. Presence of trees along the shoulder, potentially impacting visibility.

To prevent accidents in these zones, several measures should be taken:

1. Raising awareness among road users, particularly truck drivers, to promote safer
driving practices.
2. Implementing lower speed limits in accident-prone stretches to reduce the likelihood
and severity of accidents.
3. Regular maintenance of shoulders to ensure they are in good condition.
4. Increasing the road's capacity by converting it into a four-lane road to accommodate
the heavy traffic flow.
5. Ensuring unobstructed sight distances by clearing vegetation and trees that hinder
visibility.

By implementing these preventive measures, it is expected that the number and severity of
accidents in Zone 7 and Zone 1 can be significantly reduced, enhancing overall road safety
for all users.
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