Academic Year

2022 - 2023

Climate Change Adaptation:

Review of Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Activities
in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Balolage Gloire

EOMP 2
Local institutions and poverty reduction

Supervisor
Dr. Ariadna Anisimov
Table of contents
Abstract .................................................................................................................................................................... 3
1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................................................... 4
1.1 Research questions .................................................................................................................................. 5
1.2 Limitations of the paper .......................................................................................................................... 5
2 Literature Review ............................................................................................................................................ 6
2.1 Definition of key concepts and theoretical spaces .................................................................................. 6
2.2 Review of the literature on vulnerability and adaptation to climate change ........................................... 6
2.3 Conceptual framework for vulnerability and adaptation ......................................................................... 9
3 Methodology ................................................................................................................................................. 13
4 Results on climate change vulnerability and adaptation in DRC .................................................................. 14
4.1 DRC climate classification ................................................................................................................... 14
4.2 Climate Change Vulnerability in the DRC: Impacts and Factors ......................................................... 15
4.3 Future climate projections..................................................................................................................... 17
4.4 Analysis of adaptation activities ........................................................................................................... 18
5 Conclusions and tentative recommendations ................................................................................................ 23
6 REFERENCES .............................................................................................................................................. 25

Climate Change Adaptation: Review of Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Activities in the DRC |2
Abstract

This research paper emphasizes the vulnerability of the Democratic Republic of the Congo
(DRC) to climate change and the challenges it faces in adapting to these changes. The DRC has
already witnessed rising temperatures and extreme weather events, and future projections
indicate further alterations. Sectors crucial to the country, such as agriculture, water resources,
ecosystems, human health, and energy, are under significant risk. Certain groups, including the
urban poor, smallholder farmers, women, and youth, bear a disproportionate burden of the
impacts of climate change due to factors like inequality, poverty, weak governance, and limited
resources.

While some projects have been implemented to aid the DRC in adapting to climate change,
they have proven to be inadequate. There is a substantial need to mobilize additional resources
for various sectors to effectively reduce vulnerability and successfully adapt to the
consequences of climate change. Moreover, the eastern part of the DRC has not received
adequate priority in terms of addressing climate change impacts.

Although the current National Adaptation Plan (NAP) aligns with other plans and policies, it
still has several deficiencies. While there are numerous recommendations, the DRC government
should place greater emphasis on enhancing climate diplomacy and strengthening its human
capital and collaborations to garner more international support for the successful
implementation of the adaptation plan.

Keywords: Climate change, Vulnerability, Adaptation, NAP, DRC

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1 Introduction

Climate change has emerged as one of the most pressing challenges of the twenty-first century,
with increasing global awareness of its potential dangers and impacts (Abidoye & Odusola,
2015; Garderen & Ludwig, 2012). The effects of climate change are particularly severe in
Africa, where vulnerability is heightened due to geographical factors, low-income levels,
reliance on climate-sensitive sectors, and limited adaptability (Abidoye & Odusola, 2015).
Southern Africa, in particular, has experienced significant warming, which has permeated
various aspects of regional social and economic progress, making adaptation crucial for
sustainable development (Davis & Vincent, 2017).

The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), located in central Africa, is highly vulnerable
to climate change and has contributed to low greenhouse gas emissions. With a population
exceeding 92,38 million people, the DRC is renowned for its vast forest cover, wildlife, and
mineral resources, which are vital for its economic growth (Climate Watch, 2023). However,
the country faces substantial challenges due to its reliance on rain-fed agriculture, high poverty
levels, and limited infrastructure. Climate change exacerbates these existing socio-economic
and environmental conditions, posing significant obstacles to sustainable development (World
Bank, 2021).

According to the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative (ND-GAIN) Index, the DRC ranks
among the top ten most vulnerable countries to climate change and ranks poorly in terms of
readiness (ND-GAIN, 2022). The country is already experiencing observable effects of climate
change, including high temperatures, intense rainfall, land degradation, longer dry seasons,
increased drought periods, and floods. These climate-related hazards impact natural systems,
human well-being, infrastructure, and economic sectors across the DRC (NAP, 2021; USAID,
2023).

In response to the impacts of climate change, the DRC has currently developed a National
Adaptation Plan (NAP) to fulfill its commitment to the Paris Agreement and implement critical
responses (NAP, 2021). Adaptation measures not only prove highly cost-effective but also have
the potential to yield a self-sustaining cycle of benefits. Protecting communities from disasters
can alleviate poverty, improve living standards, combat diseases, generate employment, reduce
inequality, mitigate conflict risks, and enhance resilience to climate impacts (Garderen &
Ludwig, 2012).

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1.1 Research questions

Given the importance of climate change adaptation in the DRC, understanding the key
vulnerability factors, and assessing the adequacy of current adaptation activities are crucial
research areas. Therefore, this review aims to address the following research questions: (1)
What are the key drivers of vulnerability in the DRC in the face of climate change? (2) Are the
current adaptation actions and projects in the DRC sufficient to address the challenges posed
by climate change? Based on this analysis, some perspectives on ways forward are presented.

1.2 Limitations of the paper

The paper acknowledges that it is limited by time constraints and word limitations. This means
that the review of the literature on vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in the DRC is
not exhaustive and may not cover all relevant studies and findings. The paper is organized into
six sections including this introductory section. The rest of the paper, apart from the
introduction, is organized as follows: literature review, methodology, results, conclusion, and
recommendations.

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2 Literature Review

2.1 Definition of key concepts and theoretical spaces

1) Climate change and climate variability

Climate change is defined as a change in the condition of the climate that can be determined
(e.g., using statistical tests) by changes in the average or variability of its properties over an
extended period, generally decades or longer. Climate change may be caused by natural internal
processes, external forcings, or persistent anthropogenic changes in atmospheric composition
or land use (UNEP, 2009).

Drivers of climate change

It is worth noting that climate change is defined in Article 1 of the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) as a change in climate that, in addition to the natural
climate variability seen over comparable periods, is associated with human activity and is either
directly or indirectly responsible for changing the composition of the global atmosphere
(UNEP, 2009). Therefore, the drivers of climate change are anthropogenic from greenhouse gas
emissions that accumulate in the atmosphere.

2.2 Review of the literature on vulnerability and adaptation to climate

change

Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change have been extensively studied in the theoretical
literature over the past few decades. These concepts are crucial for understanding the social,
economic, and environmental impacts of climate change and developing effective strategies to
address them. Here is a review of the key themes and findings in the theoretical literature on
vulnerability and adaptation:

a) Vulnerability
The concept of vulnerability, like any other concept, is intertwined with various discourses,
doctrines, epistemes, and ideologies, and traverses borders and social networks (Peck &
Theodore, 2015). When viewed from a poststructuralist perspective, this notion becomes
particularly problematic. One influential definition of vulnerability, which we will examine in
this research, was put forth by the International Panel on Climate Change. According to their
definition, vulnerability refers to the extent to which a system is susceptible to or incapable of

Climate Change Adaptation: Review of Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Activities in the DRC |6
dealing with the negative impacts of climate change, including climate variability and extreme
events. It depends on factors such as the nature, intensity, and speed of climate change and
variation to which a system is exposed, as well as the sensitivity and adaptive capacity of that
system (Barnett, 2020).

Drivers of vulnerability

The literature identifies several factors that contribute to vulnerability to climate change. These
include social factors (e.g., poverty, inequality, gender, and social exclusion), economic factors
(e.g., dependence on climate-sensitive sectors), environmental factors (e.g., geographic
location, biodiversity), and institutional factors (e.g., governance, access to resources, capacity
for planning and implementation) (NAP, 2021; Theokritoff et al., 2023).

Differential vulnerability

The literature emphasizes that vulnerability is not uniformly distributed and that certain groups
and regions are more vulnerable than others. Vulnerability is influenced by intersecting social
identities, such as age, gender, ethnicity, and socioeconomic status. Developing countries,
marginalized communities, and small island states are often identified as particularly vulnerable
due to limited resources, high exposure, and low adaptive capacity (Twecan et al., 2022)

b) Adaptation
The concept of adaptation has shifted from being associated with the evolutionary responses of
plants and animals to changes in their surroundings. It is now being promoted as a guiding
principle for policymaking to ensure sustainable development, decrease vulnerability, and
minimize risks to humans caused by climate change. While various typologies, concepts, and
frameworks have been proposed by climate change researchers to classify different types of
adaptation based on purpose, timing, duration, and location, the current focus of scholarly work
is primarily on planned adaptation. This type of adaptation, which aims to inform policy
decisions, is of particular interest to policymakers (Schipper, 2007).

In this paper, we will consider the definition of adaptation provided by the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2001), which defines it as an adjustment in ecological, social,
or economic systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli and their effects or
impacts. This term refers to changes in processes, practices, or structures to moderate or offset

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potential damages or to take advantage of opportunities associated with climate change. It
involves adjustments to reduce the vulnerability of communities, regions, or activities to
climatic change and variability.

Adaptation strategies

The literature explores various adaptation strategies and approaches. These include anticipatory
measures (e.g., early warning systems), reactive responses (e.g., post-disaster recovery),
technological solutions (e.g., improved infrastructure), policy interventions (e.g., climate
change adaptation plans), and community-based approaches (e.g., local knowledge and
participatory processes). The effectiveness of adaptation strategies depends on context-specific
factors and the integration of local knowledge and needs, as well as understanding the different
benefits for society, the economy, and the environment, which come with trade-offs and
synergies (Obsi Gemeda et al., 2023).

Transformation and systemic change

Recognizing the limitations of most adaptation projects and approaches developed over the
years, contemporary research emphasizes the importance of transformation and systemic
change. Those projects and approaches have often taken technological options "technical fixes"
which have resulted in incremental adaptation. The current literature suggests addressing the
root causes of vulnerability while simultaneously promoting sustainable and equitable
development. In this respect, transformative adaptation aims to build resilience and reduce
vulnerability, taking into account broader social, economic, and environmental objectives
(Fedele et al., 2019).

Synergies and trade-offs with mitigation

The literature also explores the synergies and trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation
efforts. While adaptation focuses on managing the impacts of climate change, mitigation aims
to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The two are interconnected and coordinated action can
lead to more sustainable outcomes. However, there can be trade-offs, as limited resources may
need to be allocated between adaptation and mitigation measures (Schipper, 2007; Orlove,
2022).

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Overall, the theoretical literature on vulnerability and adaptation to climate change provides a
comprehensive understanding of the challenges, opportunities, and strategies involved in
addressing the impacts of climate change. It highlights the need for context-specific approaches,
participatory processes, and transformative changes to enhance adaptive capacity, reduce
vulnerability, and promote sustainable development in the face of climate change.

2.3 Conceptual framework for vulnerability and adaptation

The conceptual framework presented in this paper aims to provide a comprehensive

understanding of vulnerability and adaptation within the context of climate change. Van
Garderen and Ludwig (2012) emphasize that to fully comprehend adaptation; it is crucial to
first grasp the concept of vulnerability. Vulnerability, closely intertwined with climate change
and variability, reflects the capacity of systems to cope with adverse climate impacts. It is
influenced by various factors, including social, economic, environmental, and institutional
aspects. On the other hand, adaptation involves implementing strategies and approaches aimed
at reducing vulnerability and enhancing the adaptive capacity of systems (van Garderen and
Ludwig, 2012).

However, it is important to acknowledge that transformative adaptation and systemic change

become essential for addressing the underlying causes of vulnerability. Furthermore, the
relationship between adaptation and mitigation plays a significant role in addressing climate
change impacts and greenhouse gas emissions. Managing trade-offs and synergies between
these two aspects is crucial for effective climate action. (van Garderen and Ludwig, 2012).
Figure 1 below illustrates an adaptation framework, providing a visual representation of the
concepts discussed preceding. This framework serves as a guide for understanding and
analyzing these concepts within the context of climate change.

Within the framework, it is necessary to consider the interplay between greenhouse gas
emissions, exposure, and vulnerability. Climate change is primarily driven by greenhouse gas
emissions, which interact with the conditions of exposure and vulnerability (sensitivity).
Although this article primarily focuses on vulnerability, it is important to acknowledge the
broader context of climate change and its underlying causes.

To understand the vulnerability of a specific location, researchers suggest examining related

concepts such as exposure and sensitivity. Exposure refers to the objects and assets within a

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hazard-prone area, while sensitivity pertains to their response when interacting with the hazard.
The exposure of specific climate indicators represents the absolute change in those indicators,
such as shorter rainy seasons, higher maximum temperatures, or rising sea levels. However,
these changes will only have an effect if the affected area is sensitive to the exposure. For
instance, a landlocked country is not at risk from sea level rise. The sensitivity indicates the
degree of impact; low sensitivity implies low impact, while high sensitivity results in significant
impact. Agriculture, for example, exhibits high sensitivity to changes in rainfall. Nevertheless,
a location is only at risk if it lacks the ability or capacity to cope with the impacts of these
changes (Figure 1) (Garderen & Ludwig, 2012).

By analyzing exposure and sensitivity, researchers gain insights into potential impacts and risks
associated with vulnerability (Garderen & Ludwig, 2012). This brings up new concepts
explored in the framework which is adaptive capacity.

Figure 1: Adaptation framework. Source: (Garderen & Ludwig, 2012)

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Adaptive capacity plays a crucial role in vulnerability and adaptation. It is influenced by various
factors including economic wealth, infrastructure and technology, equity, and knowledge. Low
adaptive capacity is often associated with limited access to resources, inadequate infrastructure,
social inequalities, lack of knowledge and technology, and weak institutions. Conversely, high
adaptive capacity is characterized by robust financial resources, well-developed infrastructure,
equitable access to resources and opportunities, strong institutions, and a solid knowledge base,
enabling effective response and adaptation to climate change. It is important to note that
conflict, forced migration, and areas with weak law enforcement can significantly diminish the
adaptive capacity of communities (Garderen & Ludwig, 2012; UNEP, 2009).

Adaptation can take the form of concrete actions, such as building infrastructure, or guide how
to act, such as through education. Many African nations, due to their economic constraints,
limited educational systems, and fragile institutions, have relatively low adaptation capacities.
However, certain communities exhibit remarkable resilience to climatic extremes, acquiring the
capacity to withstand prolonged droughts and swiftly adapt to changing weather patterns
(Garderen & Ludwig, 2012).

The phenomenon of "maladaptation" occurs occasionally when a measure that was initially
chosen to reduce vulnerability to climate change hazards turns out to increase vulnerability
(Garderen & Ludwig, 2012). Most of these actions are designed for quick gains, but they have
detrimental long-term effects. There are five different types of maladaptation, according to
Barnett and O'Neill (2010), including path dependency, high opportunity costs,
disproportionate burdening of the most vulnerable, and decreased incentive to adapt. Therefore,
potential negative effects during the adaptation selection process should be carefully considered
to avoid maladaptation.

Furthermore, climate change adaptation is complex, involving social, cultural, and economic
factors that must be linked to the natural science of climate change, specifically physical
changes (Sullivan and Huntingford, 2009). Although many communities, businesses, and
government institutions recognize the need to adapt to climate change, the details of how to do
so are frequently unclear. The adaption cycle (Figure 2) was created to help governmental
institutions and businesses adapt to climate change. Knowing what to adapt to is essential for
successful adaptation (Garderen & Ludwig, 2012).

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 Figure 2: The adaptation cycle. Source: (Garderen & Ludwig, 2012)

A “climate change impact and vulnerability assessment” can map the expected changes and
their effects on the current state system, community, or region. Step two of the adaptation cycle
involves designing and selecting adaptation options based on the impacts and vulnerability of
the area. Upon deciding on solutions or actions to implement, the adaptation measures should
be assessed. The cycle can be repeated to address residual vulnerability after adaptation
measures are implemented. This paper is focusing on step three of the adaptation cycle
(implementation and evaluation of adaptation options) in DRC (Garderen & Ludwig, 2012).

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3 Methodology

The methodology employed in this study encompasses an examination of the existing literature
through a comprehensive literature review. The review aimed to identify and analyze relevant
academic publications, peer-reviewed articles, reports, and policy documents published
between 2000 and 2023, in English and sometimes in French. The search process involved
utilizing diverse academic databases, including but not limited to Google Scholar, SAGE
publications, and Science Direct. The search terms used included "climate change,"
"vulnerability," "adaptation," and "Democratic Republic of the Congo," and their combinations.

Furthermore, this study's methodology includes the application of key concepts derived from a
literature review and a conceptual framework illustrating the interaction between vulnerability,
adaptive capacity, and risks. By incorporating these components, the study seeks to determine
the extent to which step 3 of the policy cycle, namely the implementation of adaptation,
addresses vulnerability drivers or potentially generates maladaptation risks.

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4 Results on climate change vulnerability and adaptation in DRC

4.1 DRC climate classification

To understand the DRC's vulnerability context, we must first identify its climate classification.
DRC's vast territory, which includes inland lakes, mountains, grassland savanna, and tropical
and highland forests, spans multiple climate classifications that can be divided into three zones
(USAID, 2018):
→ Zone 1 includes North and South Kivu, Ituri, northern Kasai, Central Kasai, and
Tanganyika. Tropical rainforests line the Congo River and its tributaries, with two rainy
seasons (March-May and September-December) and two short dry seasons (June-
August and January-February). Temperatures range from 24°C to 25°C on average, with
little variation throughout the year.

Figure 3: DR Congo climate classification. Source: USAID, 2018

→ Zone 2 consists of Kinshasa, the southern Kasai, and the southwestern Kasai Central.
This zone is distinguished by mountainous terraces and dense grasslands, tropical wet
and dry climates, and a designated rainy season (July-August). Temperatures range
from 24°C to 25°C on average, with little variation throughout the year.
→ Zone 3 refers to southeastern Kasai Central, Kasai Oriental, Haut Katanga, and southern
Tanganyika. This region is distinguished by subtropical climates of savannas in the
south and southeast, with a single rainy season from December to February.
Temperatures are slower but consistent, ranging from 22 to 23°C.

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4.2 Climate Change Vulnerability in the DRC: Impacts and Factors

Climate change has already begun to exert its impact on the DRC, manifesting in several
vulnerabilities. Over the past three decades, the country has witnessed rising temperatures at a
rate of 0.17°C per decade, accompanied by an increase of approximately 0.25°C per decade on
the warmest day of the year. The consequences of these temperature shifts are particularly
evident in Lake Tanganyika, where deep waters have warmed by 0.20-0.70°C since the 1960s.
The DRC is also grappling with a surge in extreme weather events, exemplified by heavy rains
following prolonged dry spells, leading to erosion and flash flooding. The devastating effects
of such events were, for instance, tragically witnessed in January 2018, when torrential
downpours resulted in severe flooding and landslides, claiming the lives of 51 individuals, and
affecting the lives of 15,700 others in communities near Kinshasa (USAID, 2018, 2023).

Vulnerability Trends in DR Congo

0,605

0,6

0,595

0,59

0,585

0,58
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Source: Notre Dame GAIN Index, 2022

From 1995 to 2020, the vulnerability of the DRC to climate change has evolved significantly.
While progress has been made in addressing climate-related risks and enhancing resilience,
continued efforts are needed to mitigate the country's vulnerability, strengthen adaptive
capacities, and promote sustainable development in the face of ongoing climate change
challenges.

The major key vulnerability factors include inequality, persistent poverty, weak governance,
and access to resources (NAP, 2021). However, colonial legacy is not mentioned as one of the
vulnerability factors in the NAP. In terms of vulnerability, the poor are more vulnerable to

Climate Change Adaptation: Review of Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Activities in the DRC | 15
climate change because they are more exposed and sensitive to such impacts, and they generally
have less capacity and fewer resources with which to adapt. Because of their vulnerability, they
are less resilient to the effects of climate change. Supporting the inclusion of the poor in
adaptation planning and implementation, as well as ensuring that a larger share of adaptation
funding can reach local communities, may increase their capacity to adapt to climate change
and reduce poverty (Climate Watch, 2023).

The urban poor are the first vulnerable groups to climate hazards in DR Congo, followed by the
agriculture sector. The DRC’s cities are home to one of the largest poor urban populations in
the world, and the urban poor are among the groups that are most vulnerable to climate change
(USAID, 2018; NAP, 2021). Smallholder farmers are also vulnerable to climate change. Even
small changes in weather patterns are likely to have a major impact on agricultural GDP and
economic growth. Rising temperatures are expected to have a significant impact on key
economic sectors, such as agriculture (including fisheries and livestock), due to crop disease
and drought, which will intensify food insecurity and poverty (NAP, 2021).

Furthermore, women and youth are disproportionately affected by climate change, increasing
their risk of food insecurity, poverty, health problems, violence, and displacement. Youth in the
DRC are particularly vulnerable to climate change; the DRC is ranked ninth among the top
countries where children are most vulnerable to climate and environmental impacts (USAID,
2023).

Women are also more severely affected than men in terms of climate change. They are more
vulnerable to climate change because of their greater dependence on climate-related resources
(due to their responsibility to provide or produce water and food). At the same time, their
adaptive capacity is low due to limited mobility, access to education, credit and banking
services, and land ownership arrangements, combined with low participation of women in
formal employment (30%) and political positions (20%) (USAID, 2018).

The literacy rate of women among 15-24-year-olds is significantly lower (59%) than that of
men (86%) which creates an imbalance in access to climate information and limits women's
adaptive capacity. It has also been reported that women in DRC have limited participation in
discussions on climate change issues, resulting in low political representation. Even the
imbalance in women's involvement in the environmental policy space (NAP, 2021).

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Additionally, gender inequality and violence are clear sources of vulnerability for women
among indigenous peoples (IPs) as a result of climate change impacts. IPs women, given the
discrimination they face, are more vulnerable. IP women work more than men; with the risks
of climate change, they will have to work harder, and expend more energy as a result of the
consequences of climate change, in terms of cropping seasons, distance to travel in search of
non-timber forest products, water, etc. The illiteracy observed among IP women aggravates
their rural and poor situation and Bantu women instrumentalize IP women because of their
ignorance (NAP, 2021).

4.3 Future climate projections

Table 1: Key climate projections in the DRC for the near and mid-term.

Source: World Bank, 2021

Climate projections for the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) indicate rising
temperatures, more frequent, and longer heat waves, and decreased cold days and nights by 6-
10% by the end of 2100. Temperatures are expected to rise the most from October to March.
Evapotranspiration rates will increase with higher temperatures. Rainfall is projected to become
more variable, with an increased frequency of extreme events and up to a 27% increase in heavy
rain intensity. Heavy rains during the wet season could lead to a 50% increase in runoff from
the Congo River system, increasing flood risk. Dry spells, floods, and wildfires are also
expected to become more frequent and intense throughout the country (USAID, 2023).

Climate projections show some regional variation. Southern parts of the country may
experience higher temperature increases by the end of the century (2100), as well as decreases
in dry season rainfall and increased aridity and drought (Figure 4). By the late century, the
eastern parts of the country could see a 5% increase in total annual precipitation (Figure 5).
More intense high precipitation events are expected in the central part of the country, potentially
resulting in flooding, riverbank erosion, landslides, and waterlogging. (World Bank, 2021;
USAID, 2018; CSC, 2013).

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Figure 4: Maps depicting projected changes in mean temperature under a high-emission
scenario. Stippled areas indicate "robust" changes, where 66 percent of all models project a
climate change signal in the same direction. Source: CSC 2013

Figure 5: Changes in total precipitation projected under a high-emission scenario. Stippled

areas indicate "robust" changes, where 66 percent of all models project the same climate
change signal. Source: CSC 2013.

4.4 Analysis of adaptation activities

Following the identification of climate change impacts and vulnerability factors, it is important
to examine adaptation policies and activities (projects) in the DRC. The country function on a
decentralized framework, and the Ministry of Environment, Nature Conservation, and Tourism
is in charge of climate change and adaptation efforts (NAP, 2021).

a) Past and ongoing projects

According to the DRC's Nationally Determined Contribution (CDN) published in 2021, the
country has already made several efforts in the last two decades, to implement adaptation

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actions in the agriculture, community recovery, and coastal erosion control sectors, particularly
through certain adaptation projects implemented following the intervention axes identified in
the 2006 NAPA (CDN, 2021). These projects have been and are being implemented in the
DRC, with funding coming from different bilateral, multilateral, donors’ organizations working
across the sectors identified as more vulnerable to climate change, notably agriculture, water
resources, forestry, energy, health, infrastructure (Government of Netherlands, 2019).

Table 2 in the annex, based on our analysis, shows that the agricultural sector has received more
funds than other sectors. This can be justified by the fact that agriculture is a vital part of the
DRC’s economy, accounting for 40% of the GDP and employing 70% of the population. The
country has the potential to become Africa's breadbasket with its vast arable land (USAID,
2023).

On the other hand, according to the Government of the Netherlands (2019), a significant amount
of funding is also focused on forest conservation and reducing deforestation because of the
global importance of the Congo Basin forests. Limited funding stays then available for other
sectors. For this reason, despite the implementation of several projects to tackle climate change
in the DRC, there is still a significant need to mobilize resources for other sectors to effectively
minimize vulnerability and adapt to climate change. Furthermore, it is important to note that
the eastern region of the DRC is not prioritized, highlighting the urgent need for focused efforts
in this area (Government of Netherlands, 2019).

b) Assessing the DRC’s National Adaptation Plan for Climate Change: Strengths,
Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats

Recently in 2021, the DRC updated its Nationally Determined Contribution (CDN, 2021) and
identified the 52 actions for climate adaptation. Additionally, the DRC published its National
Adaptation Plan to Climate Change, which outlines the country's legal and institutional
framework, historical and projected climate data, and priority adaptation programs for 2022-
2026 (NAP, 2021). This NAP brings together many existing activities, plans, and strategies in
DRC: National Strategic Development Plan 2019-2023 (its fifth pillar on Environment and
SDG); DRC's National Adaptation Program of Action (NAPA), the 1st, 2nd & 3rd National
Communications to the UNFCCC, the National Agricultural Investment Plan, the National
Determined Contribution (NDC), the Climate Change Policy, Strategy and Action Plan (CC-

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PSAP), the DRC's Country Program for the Green Climate Fund, etc. All to find out synergies
and gaps in existing plans and projects that have been initiated so far (NAP, 2021).

The plan engaged various stakeholders and acknowledged the diverse impacts of climate
change across different regions of the DRC. It emphasized the involvement of local
communities and the integration of traditional knowledge in adaptation efforts. The sectors
most vulnerable to climate change, including agriculture, energy, transport, water and
sanitation, ecosystems conservation, forests, biodiversity, and coastal zone management, were
identified as priorities. However, the plan lacks clarity on the prioritization of actions in the
short, medium, and long terms. Furthermore, implementation plans (road maps) are expected
to be developed in the next phase (NAP, 2021).

The NAP also recognizes that the DRC is vulnerable to the effects of climate change and lacks
adequate capacity to cope. Indeed, the DRC ranks as the 10th country with the highest
vulnerability and the 189th country with the highest level of readiness. This country's low
adaptive capacity is associated with limited access to resources, inadequate infrastructure,
social inequalities, lack of adequate information, knowledge, and technology, and weak
institutional capacity (NAP, 2021; ND-GAIN, 2022). Ongoing conflicts in eastern DRC have
also contributed to internal migration, resulting in several land tenure problems. As a
consequence, the ability to adapt to climate change is diminished, particularly within the
agricultural sector. This situation increases vulnerability, posing significant challenges to food
security (NAP, 2021; Government of Netherlands, 2019).

The vulnerability assessment shows that the major factors of vulnerability to climate change in
the DRC include inequality, poverty, weak governance, and access to resources, low levels of
education and literacy among the population, uncontrolled self-building, and demographic
growth (NAP, 2021). In addition, the NAP (2021) cites women, youth, indigenous populations,
small-scale farmers, and the urban poor as the groups most vulnerable to climate change.

Furthermore, the estimated cost of adaptation in DRC presented in the NAP (2021) is
US$9,082,000,000 based on the 2015 NDC. The same budget is carried forward in the NAP for
the period 2022-2026. It is important to note that these estimated costs specifically pertain to
the agriculture, energy and transportation, forestry, and coastal sectors. The communication of
these costs is depicted in the figure provided below.

Climate Change Adaptation: Review of Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Activities in the DRC | 20
 COST IN BILLIONS USD Coastal and
littoral sector
Forestry sector $0,118
$0,050 1%
<1%
Agricultural
sector $1,564
17%

Energy and
transportation
sector $7,350
81%

Figure 6: Adaptation costs by sector (in billions of USD). Source: NAP, 2021

Additionally, an action plan with specific capacity needs was produced in March 2020,
estimating an initial cost of $121 million. As of the time of finalizing this plan, a revision of the
new NDC was in progress and therefore costs are expected to have increased since 2015 (NAP,
2021). Thus, it is unclear whether all the necessary resources have been identified to fully fund
the implementation of the plan.

It is worth noting that some of the major partners and donors, including the World Bank (2021),
USAID (2018, 2019), and the Dutch government (2019), have developed their own "DRC
Climate country profile" to guide project design based on their intervention areas. However,
because the DRC has the same characteristics, these profiles have been completed and/or
supplemented on issues such as the root causes of vulnerability, adaptive capacity, vulnerable
segments of society, and transformative adaptation.

In general, we can say that this NAP is a good framework for DRC climate change adaptation
actions. Yet it also has other limitations. The SWOT analysis below details these:

Climate Change Adaptation: Review of Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Activities in the DRC | 21
 Strengths Weaknesses
→ Inclusive participation approach; → Lack of an implementation plan; Fail to
→ Territorial diversity; integrate long-term adaptation strategies;
→ Integration with other existing plans; → No clear dual benefits between adaptation
→ a more or less satisfactory assessment of and mitigation;
risks and vulnerabilities and → Does not address how to deal with loss and
→ Provision of a monitoring and evaluation damage and maladaptation;
mechanism for the adaptation plan. → Lack of incentive policies for adaptation in
the private sector;
→ Limited organized consultations in pilot
provinces of the NAP project (Kinshasa,
Kongo-Central, Kwilu, Haut-Katanga, and
Tshopo), yet the country has 26 provinces;
→ The vulnerability assessment is not complete
and robust, data gaps, etc.
Opportunities Threats
→ Strengthening information and knowledge → Persistent political instability;
systems/baseline for future vulnerability and → Weak institutional capacity;
risk assessments; → Financial constraints;
→ Enhancing climate diplomacy and → Limited awareness and education;
partnerships; → Environmental degradation and conflicts.
→ A document that can be used in policy
formulation, adaptation project design, and
strategic processes for companies, non-
governmental organizations, and
development partners;
→ Engaging the private sector, civil society,
and indigenous people.
Table 3: Our personal NAP SWOT analysis

Overall, in addition to this SWOT analysis, it is important to remark that DRC is making efforts
to adapt itself to climate change in general and to align itself with transformative adaptation in
particular. These efforts include sectoral actions, the integration of climate change adaptation
into development planning, and the inclusive participation approach, the inclusion of gender
and indigenous peoples' and young people's rights in adaptation strategies; in short, the
importance of comprehensive and inclusive approaches to strengthen the country's climate
resilience (NAP, 2021). Yet, this is an ambitious undertaking, as the country has to mobilize
more human, physical, and financial resources in addition to the political commitment
expressed in the NAP.

Climate Change Adaptation: Review of Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Activities in the DRC | 22
5 Conclusions and tentative recommendations

In conclusion, this paper highlights the climate change vulnerability and adaptation challenges
in the DRC. The DRC has already experienced temperature increases and extreme weather
events, with further changes projected in the future. Key sectors such as agriculture, water
resources, ecosystems, human health, and energy are at significant risk. Vulnerable groups
including the urban poor, smallholder farmers, women, and youth are disproportionately
affected by climate change due to factors such as inequality, poverty, weak governance, and
limited resources.

The various projects that have already been implemented enable the DRC in adapting to climate
change, but they are still insufficient. There remains a substantial requirement to mobilize
resources for other sectors to adequately reduce vulnerability and successfully adapt to the
impacts of climate change. As well, the DRC's eastern part is not a priority. Finally, while the
current NAP synergizes the accomplishments of other plans and policies, it still has several
flaws.

As a result, we make the following recommendations for the next steps:

→ Design a comprehensive and practical implementation plan to guarantee that the adaptation
plan will be implemented and monitored effectively.
→ Incorporate long-term adaptation strategies to provide a more robust framework for dealing
with the effects of climate change.
→ In the next NAP, address the issue of maladaptation and/or propose strategies and
approaches to address it.
→ Promote policies to stimulate private sector investment in adaption measures while ensuring
that firms receive a return on their investment.
→ Increase the number of consultations in each of the country's 26 provinces to ensure that the
NAP represents the needs and objectives of all areas.
→ Improve the quality and completeness of vulnerability assessments, as well as address data
gaps, to provide a more comprehensive picture of climate change consequences.
→ Increase climate change awareness and education, particularly among vulnerable groups, to
build capacity and resilience.

Climate Change Adaptation: Review of Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Activities in the DRC | 23
→ Integrate adaptation and mitigation strategies in the NAP (steps) that show how to maximize
the effectiveness of the DRC's climate change response and enhance sustainability and
resilience.
→ Enhance climate diplomacy and collaborations to gain more international support for the
adaptation plan's execution.

Climate Change Adaptation: Review of Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Activities in the DRC | 24
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Climate Change Adaptation: Review of Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Activities in the DRC | 27
 Annex: List of projects related to climate change and adaptation in DRC

Name of Adaptation Project/initiatives Objective Sector Fund Amount of Approval

Funding year
(USD million) /period
Reducing vulnerability and increasing resilience to climate Reduce vulnerability and Agriculture LDCF $ 46 039 2022-2029
change through promoting innovation, transfer and large-scale increase resilience to climate 000,00
deployment of adaptation-oriented technologies in priority change by encouraging
agriculture value-chains and creating jobs SMEs to innovate, transfer,
and deploy adaptation-
oriented technologies and
services on a large scale,
including by creating jobs.
Building the Capacity of the Agriculture Sector in DR Congo to Reduce small farmers' and Agriculture & LDCF $ 7 510 2010
Plan for and Respond to the Additional Threats Posed by Climate rural populations' capacity building 000,00
Change on Food Production and Security vulnerability to the effects
of climate change on pluvial
agrarian systems and food
security
Climate Resilient Growth and Adaptation in Democratic Set up an adaptation- Agriculture and LDCF $ 28 139 2016
Republic of Congo enabling environment and forestry 500,00
improve agroecological
production practices in the
forest and mountainous
agroecological zones to
prepare for and respond to
climate change's immediate
and potential impacts.
Improving Women and Children's Resilience and Capacity to Vulnerable communities Community LDCF $ 4 725 2014–2019
Adapt to Climate Change in Kwilu, Kongo Central, creatively adopt and adapt recovery /resilience 000,00
Lumumbashi, and Kasaï Oriental. their livelihood strategies in
response to both present and
anticipated climate change
scenarios.
Resilience of Muanda's Communities from Coastal Erosion in the The project enabled the Coastal zone LDCF $ 5 355 2015–2020
Kongo Central creation of coastal erosion 000,00
risk profiles and facilitated
awareness-raising and
integration tools for the
provincial government.
Strengthening Hydro-Meteorological and Climate Services modernize and strengthen Infrastrucrure LDCF $ 5 329 2014–2016
the capabilities of 452,00
Meteorological services.
National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) - - WB $ 200 2004-2008
000,00
Enhancing the Climate Science Basis of GCF-Funded Activities - - WMO/GCF - 2018
in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (Workshop)
Reviving high quality coffee to stimulate climate adaptation in Promote climate adaptation Agriculture & LDCF $ 3 047 2021
smallholder farming communities and resilience among capacity building 183,00
smallholder coffee farmers,
with a special focus on rural
women, in the DRC and
Uganda through business-
driven strategies.
Medium-term investment planning for adaptation in climate- Enhance the progress of - GCF $ 1 270 2018-2020
sensitive sectors in the Democratic Republic of Congo: developing plans for 000,00
Advancing the NAP process, US$1.270.000, 2018–2020, GCF. adapting to climate change
in highly vulnerable sectors
and regions
Building the resilience and ability to adapt of women and Diversify sustainable Agriculture & LDCF $ 4 725 2015-2020
children to changing climate in DRC household practices and capacity building 000,00
build key capacities for
climate change-resilient
activities.

Climate Change Adaptation: Review of Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Activities in DRC | 29
Accès aux finances climatiques, 2019, FAO. The project's goal is to Finances WFP/GCF * 2019
monitor GCF funding in the
DRC, develop a climate
finance strategy, improve
dialogue on accessing
climate finance, share
knowledge, and analyze
DRC's climate finance
investments.
Enhancing Climate Services for Infrastructure Investments (CSI) Assess the climate risks and Disaster risk Federal 7 100 000 (Euros) 2017-2022
develop a set of long-term reduction; Finance Ministry of
adaptation options with and Investments; the
viable funding strategies. Early Warning Environment,
Systems Nature
Conservation
and Nuclear
Safety
(BMU)
Building adaptive capacity to climate change in vulnerable Reduce vulnerability to Food and Adaptation $ 9 999 2020-2025
communities living in the Congo River Basin climate change impacts and Agriculture Fund 909,00
strengthen adaptive
capacities of vulnerable
communities and the
ecosystems on which they
rely by promoting food
security, and nutrition, and
applying a gender-
sensitive approach.
Biodiversity conservation and utilization of ecosystem services in Conserve biodiversity and Biodiversity Federal 6 000 000 (Euros) 2015 -
wetlands of transboundary significance in the Nile Basin enhance ecosystem services conservation and Ministry of 2021
in transboundary wetlands restoration; Nature- the
of the Nile Basin, while based solutions and Environment,
promoting climate ecosystem services Nature
protection, adaptation, and Conservation
and Nuclear
Climate Change Adaptation: Review of Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Activities in DRC | 30
 sustainable livelihoods for Safety
local communities. (BMU)

African Risk Capacity (ARC) The objective is to improve Finance and Swiss CHF 4 000 000 2019-2022
disaster risk management investments; Food Agency for
and enhance food security in and Agriculture Development
Africa by utilizing the and
African Risk Capacity Cooperation
(ARC) to provide financial (SDC)
protection against natural
disasters and develop
insurance products for
droughts, floods, tropical
cyclones, and highly
contagious diseases.
AFR RI-Regional Great Lakes Integrated Agriculture Increase agricultural Food and International $ 152 700 2017-2021
Development Projectonal Great Lakes Integrated Agriculture productivity, agriculture; Disaster Development 000,00
Development Project commercialization, and risk reduction Association
regional integration in (IDA); Japan
targeted areas while Policy And
providing effective and Human
immediate responses during Resources
eligible crises or Development
emergencies. Fund
Forest Dependent Communities Support Project Improve the capacity of Food and agriculture Strategic $ 6 000 2016-2021
targeted Indigenous Peoples & capacity building Climate Fund 000,00
and Local Communities Grant
(IPLC) in identified
territories and at the national
scale for involvement in
REDD-related land and

Climate Change Adaptation: Review of Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Activities in DRC | 31
 forest management
activities.

DRC Improved Forested Landscape Management Project One of the objectives is to Biodiversity Strategic $ 36 900 2014-2022
collaborate with indigenous conservation and Climate Fund 000,00
communities in the restoration; Finance (SCF)
conservation and sustainable and investments
management of their
biodiversity and forest
resources, while also
providing additional
resources to strengthen
policy and regulatory
capabilities at the national
and provincial levels.
* amount not specified in NAP
Source: NAP, 2021; Government of the Netherlands, 2019; Global Center for Adaptation, 2023; World Bank, 2023

Climate Change Adaptation: Review of Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Activities in DRC | 32