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Wind Analysis - Ambon
Wind Analysis - Ambon
Load Criteria
The environmental load return period is calculated based on structure lifetime
based on BS 6349. The environmental load return period is designed using 50 years
return period probability following guidelines on BS 6349 for common port infrastructure.
Parameters used in this calculation obtained from reports, listed as in Table 3.1.
The wind speed and direction distribution are given in Table 1 and Figure 2. It shows
that wind with velocity higher than 6 m/s occurred around 0.05% a year. Wind return
period is obtained from extreme analysis with block maxima method. The yearly
maximum wind speed is given in Table 2. 3 types of frequency distribution are tested
which are Largest Extreme Value, Lognormal and Weibull. The distribution test gives
lognormal distribution as best fit with pvalue > 0.05 and smallest Anderson Darling test
parameter (Figure 3). Return periods are obtained from empirical CDF as given in
Figure 4. The 50 years return period of wind velocity is 7.58 m/s (Table 3).
Figure 2 – Wind Class Frequency for Wind Data at Amahai Merah Harbour
Figure 4 – Cumulative Distribution Function for Wind Data at Amahai Merah Harbour
Table 3 – Wind Velocity Return Period at Amahai Merah Harbour
% of
RT (years) ECDF % U (m/s)
Exceedance
2 50 50 6.10
5 20 80 6.67
10 10 90 6.98
20 5 95 7.26
25 4 96 7.34
50 2 98 7.58
100 1 99 7.80
2.2. Wave Condition
The wave condition in Amahai Merah Harbour is obtained from ERA5 Reanalysis
Data from ECMWF for 10 years (2012 – 2021). The extracted point from ERA5 Data
is located at 129.00°E and 4.00°S. The wave data is offshore total wave data in deep
water which consider the swell condition. The wave rose for 10 years of wave data is
given in Figure 5. The wave height mainly in the range between 0.25 m to 0.75 m. The
wave pattern is grouped for 3 monthly period following the monsoon season as
follows:
1. In the west monsoon season (December – January – February) the wave is
coming mainly from southwest and west.
2. In the transition between west to east monsoon season (March – April – May) the
wave is mainly coming from southeast.
3. In the east monsoon season (June – July – August) the wave is coming mainly
from southeast.
4. In the transition between east to west monsoon season (September – October –
November) the wave is coming mainly from southeast
The wave height and direction distribution are given in Table 4 and Figure 6. It shows
that wave with height more than 0.50 m occurred around 65% a year. Wave return
period is obtained from extreme analysis with block maxima method. The yearly
maximum wave height for wave from southeast, west and all direction are given in
Table 5. 3 types of frequency distribution are tested which are Largest Extreme Value,
Lognormal and Weibull. The distribution test gives distribution of 3-parameter Weibull
for southeast wave and west wave, and lognormal for all direction wave as best fit
with pvalue > 0.05 and smallest Anderson Darling test parameter (Figure 7). Return
periods are obtained from empirical CDF as given in Figure 8. The 50 years return
period of wave height is 2.64 m (Table 6). Wave period relation with wave height is
given in Figure 9. Correlation between the wave period and square root of wave
height (DHI,2016) follows 6.55√ ❑.
Table 4 – Wave Frequency Distribution at Amahai Merah Harbour
Directions
/ Wave 0.25 - 0.50 - 0.75 - 1.00 - 1.50 - 2.00 - 2.50 -
>= 3.00 Total
Classes 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00
(m)
N 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
NNE 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
NE 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
NEE 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
E 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
ESE 0.26% 0.11% 0.10% 0.05% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.53%
SE 8.87% 14.26% 10.02% 13.71% 2.21% 0.14% 0.00% 0.00% 49.21%
SSE 3.05% 2.59% 0.70% 0.97% 0.14% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 7.45%
S 1.05% 0.64% 0.14% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.86%
SSW 0.66% 0.18% 0.02% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.89%
SW 1.24% 0.57% 0.13% 0.15% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.09%
WSW 6.03% 5.26% 2.17% 1.64% 0.15% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 15.25%
W 3.30% 4.40% 1.60% 0.71% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 10.02%
WNW 1.00% 1.31% 0.71% 0.43% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.48%
NW 0.05% 0.07% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.13%
NNW 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Sub-Total 25.52% 29.38% 15.62% 17.70% 2.54% 0.15% 0.00% 0.00% 90.91%
Calms 9.09%
Missing/Incomplete 0.00%
Total 100.00%
Figure 6 – Wave Class Frequency for Wave Data at Amahai Merah Harbour
Table 5 – Yearly Maximum Wave Height for Amahai Merah Harbour
Hs SE Hs W Hs All Dir
Year
(m) (m) (m)
2012 2.46 1.67 2.46
2013 2.20 1.13 2.20
2014 2.05 1.52 2.05
2015 2.02 1.39 2.02
2016 1.81 1.20 1.81
2017 1.66 1.27 1.66
2018 1.85 1.51 1.85
2019 2.26 1.88 2.26
2020 1.79 1.25 1.79
2021 1.84 2.01 2.01
Figure 7 – Distribution Fit Test for Wave Data at Amahai Merah Harbour
Figure 8 – Cumulative Distribution Functiont for Wave Data at Amahai Merah Harbour
Table 6 – Wave Height Return Period at Amahai Merah Harbour
RT Hs (m)
% of ECDF
(years
Exceedance %
) SE W All Dir
2 50 50 1.94 1.45 1.99
5 20 80 2.18 1.71 2.21
10 10 90 2.33 1.86 2.33
20 5 95 2.47 1.98 2.43
25 4 96 2.51 2.02 2.46
50 2 98 2.64 2.13 2.55
100 1 99 2.76 2.24 2.64
25
20
15
Tp (s)
10
f(x) = 6.55254168694181 x
R² = 0.935006063915162
0
0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8
sqrt(Hs)
The wind speed and direction distribution are given in Table 7 and Figure 11. It shows
that wind with velocity higher than 10 m/s occurred around 0.04% a year. Wind return
period is obtained from extreme analysis with block maxima method. The yearly
maximum wind speed is given in Table 8. 3 types of frequency distribution are tested
which are Largest Extreme Value, Lognormal and Weibull. The distribution test gives
lognormal distribution as best fit with pvalue > 0.05 and smallest Anderson Darling test
parameter (Figure 12). Return periods are obtained from empirical CDF as given in
Figure 13. The 50 years return period of wind velocity is 10.89 m/s (Table 9).
Table 7 – Wind Frequency Distribution at Geser Harbour
Directions
/ Wave 0.50 - 1.00 - 2.00 - 4.00 - 6.00 - 8.00 - 10.00 -
>= 15.00 Total
Classes 1.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 15.00
(m)
N 0.17% 0.78% 1.77% 0.73% 0.13% 0.04% 0.00% 0.00% 3.61%
NNE 0.18% 0.54% 0.95% 0.23% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.91%
NE 0.17% 0.49% 0.59% 0.09% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.34%
NEE 0.13% 0.45% 0.54% 0.05% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.17%
E 0.14% 0.50% 0.91% 0.37% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.94%
ESE 0.17% 0.67% 2.03% 2.57% 1.35% 0.19% 0.01% 0.00% 6.98%
SE 0.20% 0.81% 3.90% 7.72% 7.68% 1.72% 0.03% 0.00% 22.06%
SSE 0.21% 0.84% 3.86% 6.16% 4.16% 0.56% 0.00% 0.00% 15.80%
S 0.20% 0.86% 2.96% 2.35% 0.40% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 6.77%
SSW 0.20% 0.73% 1.72% 0.72% 0.06% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.42%
SW 0.19% 0.82% 1.81% 0.55% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.40%
WSW 0.21% 0.85% 2.43% 1.34% 0.41% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 5.27%
W 0.23% 1.04% 3.18% 2.13% 0.94% 0.15% 0.00% 0.00% 7.66%
WNW 0.25% 1.12% 3.19% 1.34% 0.19% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 6.11%
NW 0.23% 1.10% 3.23% 1.08% 0.11% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.74%
NNW 0.23% 0.96% 2.67% 1.59% 0.46% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 5.91%
Sub-Total 3.09% 12.54% 35.75% 29.01% 15.94% 2.72% 0.04% 0.00% 99.09%
Calms 0.91%
Missing/Incomplete 0.00%
Total 100.00%
The wave height and direction distribution are given in Table 9 and Figure 15. It
shows that wave with height more than 0.50 m occurred around 43% a year. Wave
return period is obtained from extreme analysis with block maxima method. The yearly
maximum wave height is given in Table 10. 3 types of frequency distribution are
tested which are Largest Extreme Value, Lognormal and Weibull. The distribution test
gives distribution of 3-Parameter Weibull for northwest wave and southeast wave, and
Weibull for all direction wave as best fit with pvalue > 0.05 and smallest Anderson
Darling test parameter (Figure 16). Return periods are obtained from empirical CDF
as given in Figure 17. The 50 years return period of wave height is 2.10 m (Table 11).
Wave period relation with wave height is given in Figure 18. Correlation between the
wave period and wave height follows 6.08√ ❑.
Table 9 – Wave Frequency Distribution at Geser Harbour
Directions
/ Wave 0.25 - 0.50 - 0.75 - 1.00 - 1.50 - 2.00 - 2.50 -
>= 3.00 Total
Classes 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00
(m)
N 0.26% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.27%
NNE 0.07% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.08%
NE 0.06% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.06%
NEE 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02%
E 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02%
ESE 0.19% 0.00% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.21%
SE 5.39% 5.02% 3.72% 3.05% 0.94% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 18.16%
SSE 18.59% 15.98% 7.13% 3.32% 0.20% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 45.22%
S 4.73% 2.32% 0.23% 0.05% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 7.33%
SSW 0.85% 0.34% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.20%
SW 0.34% 0.04% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.38%
WSW 1.77% 0.08% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.85%
W 1.25% 0.14% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.39%
WNW 0.94% 0.14% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.09%
NW 0.93% 0.56% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.49%
NNW 0.54% 0.20% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.74%
Sub-Total 35.97% 24.83% 11.11% 6.42% 1.15% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 79.50%
Calms 20.50%
Missing/Incomplete 0.00%
Total 100.00%
12
10
8 f(x) = 6.08981957006747 x
R² = 0.934826385708494
Tp (s)
0
0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6
sqrt(Hs)