THE PHILIPPINE ECONOMY AS

A TOP EMERGING MARKET

Bernardo M. Villegas, Ph. D. (Harvard)

University Professor, UA&P
 LONG TERM PROSPECTS: FROM AMERICAN TO ASIAN CENTURY
American Century Asian Century

13,407.40
20,494.05
25,000.00 14,000.00
13,669.17 12,000.00
20,000.00
10,000.00
15,000.00 8,000.00
10,000.00
4,971.93 6,000.00 2,716.75 2,436.16
4,000.00
5,000.00 2,000.00
0.00 0.00

GDP (2018) US$B GDP (2018) US$B

US Eurozone Japan China India ASEAN-5

Current
Country/ GDP Growth Current Country/ GDP Growth
Inflation (%) Account Inflation (%) Unemployed
year on year Balance Unemployed (%) year on
Group year on year Group Balance year on year (%)
(2018) (% of GDP) year (2018)
(% of GDP)

US 2.9 -2.3 2.4 3.9 China 6.6 0.4 2.1 3.8

Eurozone 1.8 3.0 1.8 8.2 India 7.1 -2.5 3.5 n.a.
Japan 0.8 3.5 1.0 2.4 ASEAN-5 5.2 0.6 2.8 n.a.

n.a. – not available;

ASEAN-5 composed of Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam
Sources: World Economic Outlook Database, IMF, April 2019
 THE ASEAN IN BRICA

GDP Value
BRICA + South Population Foreign
(in current prices, Real GDP Growth Inflation
Africa (in Millions) Reserves
US$B)
2018 2018 2016 2018 2019f 2018 2019f
Brazil 208.3 1,868.1 365 1.1 2.1 3.7 3.6
Russia 144 1,630.6 389.1 2.3 1.6 2.9 5.0
India 1,334.2 2,716.7 361.5 7.1 7.3 3.5 3.9
China 1,395.4 13,407. 3,298 6.6 6.3 2.1 2.3
ASEAN-5 634.51 2,436.1 728.22 5.2 5.1 2.8 2.8
South Africa 57.7 368.14 49.1 0.8 1.2 4.6 5.0

f-forecasts
12016 Data
22015 Gross International Reserves

Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, April 2019; ADB Asian Development Outlook April 2018;
Selected Basic ASEAN Indicators 2016, asean.org.
 The Next 11: Emerging Engines of Growth
Population 2018 GDP 2018
Country
(in millions) (current US$ B)
Bangladesh 164.9 287.6
Egypt 97.0 249.6
Indonesia 264.2 1,022.5
Iran 82.4 452.3
Mexico 124.7 1,223.4
Nigeria 193.9 397.3
Pakistan 201.0 312.6
Philippines 106.6 330.8
South Korea 51.7 1,619.4
Turkey 82.0 766.4
Vietnam 94.6 241.3
Source: IMF estimates, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2019
Ten Leading Emerging Markets that will Dominate the
Global Economy in the Next Decade
1. India 6. Turkey

2.Philippines 7. Thailand

3. Indonesia 8. Chile

4. China 9. Poland

5. Malaysia 10. South Africa

Source : Oxford Economics 2019

 Emerging
economies
ranked by
financial
strength

Source of table: The Economist. Next in line: Which emerging markets are in most
financial peril? In Briefing on May 2, 2020. Retrieved from
https://www.economist.com/briefing/2020/05/02/which-emerging-markets-are-in-
most-financial-peril.
 THE PHILIPPINES IN 2050 (FROM HSBC’S THE WIDER WORLD IN 2050)
Rank in Change in rank from Rank in Change in rank from
Country Country
2050 previous HSBC study 2050 previous HSBC study
1 China +2 16 Philippines +27
2 U.S. -1 17 Indonesia +4
3 India +5 18 Australia -2
4 Japan -2 19 Argentina
5 Germany -1 20 Egypt +15
6 UK -1 21 Malaysia +17
7 Brazil +2 22 Saudi Arabia +1
8 Mexico +5 23 Thailand +6
9 France -3 24 Netherlands -9
10 Canada Same 25 Poland -1
11 Italy -4 26 Peru +20
12 Turkey +6 27 Iran +7
13 South Korea -2 28 Colombia +12
14 Spain -2 29 Switzerland -9
15 Russia +2 30 Pakistan +14
Philippines gets 'A-' credit rating from
Japan Credit Rating Agency
Long-Term Opportunities

• Demographic Dividend: Young, Growing and English-Speaking

Population
• Geographic Dividend: at the epicenter of the most dynamic economic
region in the world, the Asia Pacific region
• Temporal dividend: timely shift from low middle-income to upper-
middle income status
• Abundant natural resources, especially for tourism
• Build, Build, Build Program of the Government
• Faster Growth of Regions Outside the National Capital Region
Long-Term Challenges

• Low Agricultural Productivity

• Obstacles to doing business, especially for foreign direct
investors
• Shortage of technical skills
• High rates of electricity
• Corruption and poor governance
• High frequency of natural calamities
THE PHILIPPINE ECONOMY AS
A TOP EMERGING MARKET
THANK YOU.

Bernardo M. Villegas, Ph. D. (Harvard)

University Professor, UA&P