Agent-Based Model

Agent-based model
An agent-based model (ABM) is a computational model for simulating the actions and interactions of
autonomous agents (both individual or collective entities such as organizations or groups) in order to
understand the behavior of a system and what governs its outcomes. It combines elements of game theory,
complex systems, emergence, computational sociology, multi-agent systems, and evolutionary
programming. Monte Carlo methods are used to understand the stochasticity of these models. Particularly
within ecology, ABMs are also called individual-based models (IBMs).[1] A review of recent literature on
individual-based models, agent-based models, and multiagent systems shows that ABMs are used in many
scientific domains including biology, ecology and social science.[2] Agent-based modeling is related to, but
distinct from, the concept of multi-agent systems or multi-agent simulation in that the goal of ABM is to
search for explanatory insight into the collective behavior of agents obeying simple rules, typically in
natural systems, rather than in designing agents or solving specific practical or engineering problems.[2]
Agent-based models are a kind of microscale model[3] that simulate the simultaneous operations and
interactions of multiple agents in an attempt to re-create and predict the appearance of complex phenomena.
The process is one of emergence, which some express as "the whole is greater than the sum of its parts". In
other words, higher-level system properties emerge from the interactions of lower-level subsystems. Or,
macro-scale state changes emerge from micro-scale agent behaviors. Or, simple behaviors (meaning rules
followed by agents) generate complex behaviors (meaning state changes at the whole system level).
Individual agents are typically characterized as boundedly rational, presumed to be acting in what they
perceive as their own interests, such as reproduction, economic benefit, or social status,[4] using heuristics
or simple decision-making rules. ABM agents may experience "learning", adaptation, and reproduction.[5]
Most agent-based models are composed of: (1) numerous agents specified at various scales (typically
referred to as agent-granularity); (2) decision-making heuristics; (3) learning rules or adaptive processes; (4)
an interaction topology; and (5) an environment. ABMs are typically implemented as computer simulations,
either as custom software, or via ABM toolkits, and this software can be then used to test how changes in
individual behaviors will affect the system's emerging overall behavior.
History
The idea of agent-based modeling was developed as a relatively simple concept in the late 1940s. Since it
requires computation-intensive procedures, it did not become widespread until the 1990s.
Early developments
The history of the agent-based model can be traced back to the Von Neumann machine, a theoretical
machine capable of reproduction. The device von Neumann proposed would follow precisely detailed
instructions to fashion a copy of itself. The concept was then built upon by von Neumann's friend
Stanislaw Ulam, also a mathematician; Ulam suggested that the machine be built on paper, as a collection
of cells on a grid. The idea intrigued von Neumann, who drew it up—creating the first of the devices later
termed cellular automata. Another advance was introduced by the mathematician John Conway. He
constructed the well-known Game of Life. Unlike von Neumann's machine, Conway's Game of Life
operated by simple rules in a virtual world in the form of a 2-dimensional checkerboard.
The Simula programming language, developed in the mid 1960s and widely implemented by the early
1970s, was the first framework for automating step-by-step agent simulations.
1970s and 1980s: the first models
One of the earliest agent-based models in concept was Thomas Schelling's segregation model,[6] which
was discussed in his paper "Dynamic Models of Segregation" in 1971. Though Schelling originally used
coins and graph paper rather than computers, his models embodied the basic concept of agent-based models
as autonomous agents interacting in a shared environment with an observed aggregate, emergent outcome.
In the early 1980s, Robert Axelrod hosted a tournament of Prisoner's Dilemma strategies and had them
interact in an agent-based manner to determine a winner. Axelrod would go on to develop many other
agent-based models in the field of political science that examine phenomena from ethnocentrism to the
dissemination of culture.[7] By the late 1980s, Craig Reynolds' work on flocking models contributed to the
development of some of the first biological agent-based models that contained social characteristics. He
tried to model the reality of lively biological agents, known as artificial life, a term coined by Christopher
Langton.
The first use of the word "agent" and a definition as it is currently used today is hard to track down. One
candidate appears to be John Holland and John H. Miller's 1991 paper "Artificial Adaptive Agents in
Economic Theory",[8] based on an earlier conference presentation of theirs.
At the same time, during the 1980s, social scientists, mathematicians, operations researchers, and a
scattering of people from other disciplines developed Computational and Mathematical Organization
Theory (CMOT). This field grew as a special interest group of The Institute of Management Sciences
(TIMS) and its sister society, the Operations Research Society of America (ORSA).[9]
1990s: expansion
The 1990s were especially notable for the expansion of ABM within the social sciences, one notable effort
was the large-scale ABM, Sugarscape, developed by Joshua M. Epstein and Robert Axtell to simulate and
explore the role of social phenomena such as seasonal migrations, pollution, sexual reproduction, combat,
and transmission of disease and even culture.[10] Other notable 1990s developments included Carnegie
Mellon University's Kathleen Carley ABM,[11] to explore the co-evolution of social networks and culture.
The Santa Fe Institute (SFI) was important in encouraging the development of the ABM modeling platform
Swarm under the leadership of Christopher Langton. Research conducted through SFI allowed the
expansion of ABM techniques to a number of fields including study of the social and spatial dynamics of
small-scale human societies and primates.[9] During this 1990s timeframe Nigel Gilbert published the first
textbook on Social Simulation: Simulation for the social scientist (1999) and established a journal from the
perspective of social sciences: the Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation (JASSS). Other than
JASSS, agent-based models of any discipline are within scope of SpringerOpen journal Complex Adaptive
Systems Modeling (CASM).[12]
Through the mid-1990s, the social sciences thread of ABM began to focus on such issues as designing
effective teams, understanding the communication required for organizational effectiveness, and the
behavior of social networks. CMOT—later renamed Computational Analysis of Social and Organizational
Systems (CASOS)—incorporated more and more agent-based modeling. Samuelson (2000) is a good brief
overview of the early history,[13] and Samuelson (2005) and Samuelson and Macal (2006) trace the more
recent developments.[14][15]
In the late 1990s, the merger of TIMS and ORSA to form INFORMS, and the move by INFORMS from
two meetings each year to one, helped to spur the CMOT group to form a separate society, the North
American Association for Computational Social and Organizational Sciences (NAACSOS). Kathleen
Carley was a major contributor, especially to models of social networks, obtaining National Science
Foundation funding for the annual conference and serving as the first President of NAACSOS. She was
succeeded by David Sallach of the University of Chicago and Argonne National Laboratory, and then by
Michael Prietula of Emory University. At about the same time NAACSOS began, the European Social
Simulation Association (ESSA) and the Pacific Asian Association for Agent-Based Approach in Social
Systems Science (PAAA), counterparts of NAACSOS, were organized. As of 2013, these three
organizations collaborate internationally. The First World Congress on Social Simulation was held under
their joint sponsorship in Kyoto, Japan, in August 2006. The Second World Congress was held in the
northern Virginia suburbs of Washington, D.C., in July 2008, with George Mason University taking the
lead role in local arrangements.
2000s and later
More recently, Ron Sun developed methods for basing agent-based simulation on models of human
cognition, known as cognitive social simulation.[16] Bill McKelvey, Suzanne Lohmann, Dario Nardi,
Dwight Read and others at UCLA have also made significant contributions in organizational behavior and
decision-making. Since 2001, UCLA has arranged a conference at Lake Arrowhead, California, that has
become another major gathering point for practitioners in this field.
Theory
Most computational modeling research describes systems in equilibrium or as moving between equilibria.
Agent-based modeling, however, using simple rules, can result in different sorts of complex and interesting
behavior. The three ideas central to agent-based models are agents as objects, emergence, and complexity.
Agent-based models consist of dynamically interacting rule-based agents. The systems within which they
interact can create real-world-like complexity. Typically agents are situated in space and time and reside in
networks or in lattice-like neighborhoods. The location of the agents and their responsive behavior are
encoded in algorithmic form in computer programs. In some cases, though not always, the agents may be
considered as intelligent and purposeful. In ecological ABM (often referred to as "individual-based models"
in ecology), agents may, for example, be trees in a forest, and would not be considered intelligent, although
they may be "purposeful" in the sense of optimizing access to a resource (such as water). The modeling
process is best described as inductive. The modeler makes those assumptions thought most relevant to the
situation at hand and then watches phenomena emerge from the agents' interactions. Sometimes that result
is an equilibrium. Sometimes it is an emergent pattern. Sometimes, however, it is an unintelligible mangle.
In some ways, agent-based models complement traditional analytic methods. Where analytic methods
enable humans to characterize the equilibria of a system, agent-based models allow the possibility of
generating those equilibria. This generative contribution may be the most mainstream of the potential
benefits of agent-based modeling. Agent-based models can explain the emergence of higher-order patterns
—network structures of terrorist organizations and the Internet, power-law distributions in the sizes of
traffic jams, wars, and stock-market crashes, and social segregation that persists despite populations of
tolerant people. Agent-based models also can be used to identify lever points, defined as moments in time in
which interventions have extreme consequences, and to distinguish among types of path dependency.
Rather than focusing on stable states, many models consider a system's robustness—the ways that complex
systems adapt to internal and external pressures so as to maintain their functionalities. The task of
harnessing that complexity requires consideration of the agents themselves—their diversity, connectedness,
and level of interactions.
Framework
Recent work on the Modeling and simulation of Complex Adaptive Systems has demonstrated the need for
combining agent-based and complex network based models.[17][18][19] describe a framework consisting of
four levels of developing models of complex adaptive systems described using several example
multidisciplinary case studies:
1. Complex Network Modeling Level for developing models using interaction data of various
system components.
2. Exploratory Agent-based Modeling Level for developing agent-based models for assessing
the feasibility of further research. This can e.g. be useful for developing proof-of-concept
models such as for funding applications without requiring an extensive learning curve for the
researchers.
3. Descriptive Agent-based Modeling (DREAM) for developing descriptions of agent-based
models by means of using templates and complex network-based models. Building DREAM
models allows model comparison across scientific disciplines.
4. Validated agent-based modeling using Virtual Overlay Multiagent system (VOMAS) for the
development of verified and validated models in a formal manner.
Other methods of describing agent-based models include code templates[20] and text-based methods such
as the ODD (Overview, Design concepts, and Design Details) protocol.[21]
The role of the environment where agents live, both macro and micro,[22] is also becoming an important
factor in agent-based modelling and simulation work. Simple environment affords simple agents, but
complex environments generates diversity of behaviour.[23]
Multi-scale modelling
One strength of agent-based modelling is its ability to mediate information flow between scales. When
additional details about an agent are needed, a researcher can integrate it with models describing the extra
details. When one is interested in the emergent behaviours demonstrated by the agent population, they can
combine the agent-based model with a continuum model describing population dynamics. For example, in
a study about CD4+ T cells (a key cell type in the adaptive immune system),[24] the researchers modelled
biological phenomena occurring at different spatial (intracellular, cellular, and systemic), temporal, and
organizational scales (signal transduction, gene regulation, metabolism, cellular behaviors, and cytokine
transport). In the resulting modular model, signal transduction and gene regulation are described by a
logical model, metabolism by constraint-based models, cell population dynamics are described by an agent-
based model, and systemic cytokine concentrations by ordinary differential equations. In this multi-scale
model, the agent-based model occupies the central place and orchestrates every stream of information flow
between scales.
Applications
In biology
Agent-based modeling has been used extensively in biology, including the analysis of the spread of
epidemics,[25] and the threat of biowarfare, biological applications including population dynamics,[26]
stochastic gene expression,[27] plant-animal interactions,[28] vegetation ecology,[29] migratory ecology,[30]
landscape diversity,[31] sociobiology,[32] the growth and decline of ancient civilizations, evolution of
ethnocentric behavior,[33] forced displacement/migration,[34] language choice dynamics,[35] cognitive
modeling, and biomedical applications including modeling 3D breast tissue formation/morphogenesis,[36]
the effects of ionizing radiation on mammary stem cell subpopulation dynamics,[37] inflammation,[38] [39]
and the human immune system.[40] Agent-based models have also been used for developing decision
support systems such as for breast cancer.[41] Agent-based models are increasingly being used to model
pharmacological systems in early stage and pre-clinical research to aid in drug development and gain
insights into biological systems that would not be possible a priori.[42] Military applications have also been
evaluated.[43] Moreover, agent-based models have been recently employed to study molecular-level
biological systems.[44][45][46] Agent-based models have also been written to describe ecological processes
at work in ancient systems, such as those in dinosaur environments and more recent ancient systems as
well.[47][48][49]
In epidemiology
Agent-based models now complement traditional compartmental models, the usual type of epidemiological
models. ABMs have been shown to be superior to compartmental models in regard to the accuracy of
predictions.[50][51] Recently, ABMs such as CovidSim by epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, have been used to
inform public health (nonpharmaceutical) interventions against the spread of SARS-CoV-2.[52]
Epidemiological ABMs have been criticized for simplifying and unrealistic assumptions.[53][54] Still, they
can be useful in informing decisions regarding mitigation and suppression measures in cases when ABMs
are accurately calibrated.[55] The ABMs for such simulations are mostly based on synthetic populations,
since the data of the actual population is not always available.[56]
Examples of ABM use in epidemiology

Program Year Citation Description
[57] SEIR model implemented in Python with an emphasis on features for

Covasim 2021
studying the effects of interventions.
Epidemic model of the spread of COVID-19, simulating every individual in a
OpenABM- [58]
2021 population with both R and Python interfaces but using C for heavy
Covid19
computation.
An individual-based transmission model of SARS-CoV-2 infection and

OpenCOVID 2021 [59] [60] COVID-19 disease dynamics, developed at the Swiss Tropical and Public
Health Institute.
In business, technology and network theory
Agent-based models have been used since the mid-1990s to solve a variety of business and technology
problems. Examples of applications include marketing,[61] organizational behaviour and cognition,[62] team
working,[63] supply chain optimization and logistics, modeling of consumer behavior, including word of
mouth, social network effects, distributed computing, workforce management, and portfolio management.
They have also been used to analyze traffic congestion.[64]
Recently, agent based modelling and simulation has been applied to various domains such as studying the
impact of publication venues by researchers in the computer science domain (journals versus
conferences).[65] In addition, ABMs have been used to simulate information delivery in ambient assisted
environments.[66] A November 2016 article in arXiv analyzed an agent based simulation of posts spread in
Facebook.[67] In the domain of peer-to-peer, ad hoc and other self-organizing and complex networks, the
usefulness of agent based modeling and simulation has been shown.[68] The use of a computer science-
based formal specification framework coupled with wireless sensor networks and an agent-based
simulation has recently been demonstrated.[69]
Agent based evolutionary search or algorithm is a new research topic for solving complex optimization
problems.[70]
In economics and social sciences
Prior to, and in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, interest has grown in ABMs as possible tools for
economic analysis.[71][72] ABMs do not assume the economy can achieve equilibrium and "representative
agents" are replaced by agents with diverse, dynamic, and interdependent behavior including herding.
ABMs take a "bottom-up" approach and can generate extremely complex and volatile simulated
economies. ABMs can represent unstable systems with crashes and booms that develop out of non-linear
(disproportionate) responses to proportionally small changes.[73] A July 2010 article in The Economist
looked at ABMs as alternatives to DSGE models.[73] The journal Nature also encouraged agent-based
modeling with an editorial that suggested ABMs can do a better job of representing financial markets and
other economic complexities than standard models[74] along with an essay by J. Doyne Farmer and
Duncan Foley that argued ABMs could fulfill both the desires of Keynes to represent a complex economy
and of Robert Lucas to construct models based on microfoundations.[75] Farmer and Foley pointed to
progress that has been made using ABMs to model parts of an economy, but argued for the creation of a
very large model that incorporates low level models.[76] By modeling a complex system of analysts based
on three distinct behavioral profiles – imitating, anti-imitating, and indifferent – financial markets were
simulated to high accuracy. Results showed a correlation between network morphology and the stock
market index.[77] However, the ABM approach has been criticized for its lack of robustness between
models, where similar models can yield very different results.[78][79]
ABMs have been deployed in architecture and urban planning to evaluate design and to simulate pedestrian
flow in the urban environment[80] and the examination of public policy applications to land-use.[81] There
is also a growing field of socio-economic analysis of infrastructure investment impact using ABM's ability
to discern systemic impacts upon a socio-economic network.[82] Heterogeneity and dynamics can be easily
built in ABM models to address wealth inequality and social mobility.[83]
In water management
ABMs have also been applied in water resources planning and management, particularly for exploring,
simulating, and predicting the performance of infrastructure design and policy decisions,[84] and in
assessing the value of cooperation and information exchange in large water resources systems.[85]
Organizational ABM: agent-directed simulation

The agent-directed simulation (ADS) metaphor distinguishes between two categories, namely "Systems for
Agents" and "Agents for Systems."[86] Systems for Agents (sometimes referred to as agents systems) are
systems implementing agents for the use in engineering, human and social dynamics, military applications,
and others. Agents for Systems are divided in two subcategories. Agent-supported systems deal with the
use of agents as a support facility to enable computer assistance in problem solving or enhancing cognitive
capabilities. Agent-based systems focus on the use of agents for the generation of model behavior in a
system evaluation (system studies and analyses).
Self-driving cars
Hallerbach et al. discussed the application of agent-based approaches for the development and validation of
automated driving systems via a digital twin of the vehicle-under-test and microscopic traffic simulation
based on independent agents.[87] Waymo has created a multi-agent simulation environment Carcraft to test
algorithms for self-driving cars.[88][89] It simulates traffic interactions between human drivers, pedestrians
and automated vehicles. People's behavior is imitated by artificial agents based on data of real human
behavior. The basic idea of using agent-based modeling to understand self-driving cars was discussed as
early as 2003.[90]
Implementation
Many ABM frameworks are designed for serial von-Neumann computer architectures, limiting the speed
and scalability of implemented models. Since emergent behavior in large-scale ABMs is dependent of
population size,[91] scalability restrictions may hinder model validation.[92] Such limitations have mainly
been addressed using distributed computing, with frameworks such as Repast HPC[93] specifically
dedicated to these type of implementations. While such approaches map well to cluster and supercomputer
architectures, issues related to communication and synchronization,[94][95] as well as deployment
complexity,[96] remain potential obstacles for their widespread adoption.
A recent development is the use of data-parallel algorithms on Graphics Processing Units GPUs for ABM
simulation.[91][97][98] The extreme memory bandwidth combined with the sheer number crunching power
of multi-processor GPUs has enabled simulation of millions of agents at tens of frames per second.
Integration with other modeling forms
Since Agent-Based Modeling is more of a modeling framework than a particular piece of software or
platform, it has often been used in conjunction with other modeling forms. For instance, agent-based
models have also been combined with Geographic Information Systems (GIS). This provides a useful
combination where the ABM serves as a process model and the GIS system can provide a model of
pattern.[99] Similarly, Social Network Analysis (SNA) tools and agent-based models are sometimes
integrated, where the ABM is used to simulate the dynamics on the network while the SNA tool models
and analyzes the network of interactions.[100]
Verification and validation

Verification and validation (V&V) of simulation models is extremely important.[101][102] Verification
involves making sure the implemented model matches the conceptual model, whereas validation ensures
that the implemented model has some relationship to the real-world. Face validation, sensitivity analysis,
calibration, and statistical validation are different aspects of validation.[103] A discrete-event simulation
framework approach for the validation of agent-based systems has been proposed.[104] A comprehensive
resource on empirical validation of agent-based models can be found here.[105]
As an example of V&V technique, consider VOMAS (virtual overlay multi-agent system),[106] a software
engineering based approach, where a virtual overlay multi-agent system is developed alongside the agent-
based model. Muazi et al. also provide an example of using VOMAS for verification and validation of a
forest fire simulation model.[107][108] Another software engineering method, i.e. Test-Driven Development
has been adapted to for agent-based model validation.[109] This approach has another advantage that allows
an automatic validation using unit test tools.
See also
Agent-based computational economics Evolutionary algorithm
Agent-based model in biology Flocking
Agent-based social simulation (ABSS) Internet bot
Artificial society Kinetic exchange models of markets
Boids Multi-agent system
Comparison of agent-based modeling Simulated reality
software Social complexity
Complex system Social simulation
Complex adaptive system Sociophysics
Computational sociology Software agent
Conway's Game of Life Swarming behaviour
Dynamic network analysis Web-based simulation
Emergence TOTREP
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Salamon, Tomas (2011). Design of Agent-Based Models : Developing Computer
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March 17, 2012. Retrieved October 22, 2011.
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External links
Articles/general information
Agent-based models of social networks, java applets. (https://web.archive.org/web/2011051
6072744/http://cmol.nbi.dk/models/)
On-Line Guide for Newcomers to Agent-Based Modeling in the Social Sciences (https://www
2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/abmread.htm)
Introduction to Agent-based Modeling and Simulation (http://www-unix.mcs.anl.gov/~leyffer/li
stn/slides-06/MacalNorth.pdf). Argonne National Laboratory, November 29, 2006.
Agent-based models in Ecology – Using computer models as theoretical tools to analyze
complex ecological systems (http://www.abm-ecology.org)
Network for Computational Modeling in the Social and Ecological Sciences' Agent Based
Modeling FAQ (https://www.comses.net/about/faq/)
Multiagent Information Systems (https://web.archive.org/web/20081015142701/http://www.iri
sel.com/~jmgomez/IT/doctorate/taller_resumen2.htm) – Article on the convergence of SOA,
BPM and Multi-Agent Technology in the domain of the Enterprise Information Systems. Jose
Manuel Gomez Alvarez, Artificial Intelligence, Technical University of Madrid – 2006
Artificial Life Framework (https://web.archive.org/web/20021121141843/http://artificiallife.or
g/)
Article providing methodology for moving real world human behaviors into a simulation
model where agent behaviors are represented (https://archive.today/20130128163823/http://
inderscience.metapress.com/openurl.asp?genre=article&eissn=1740-2131&volume=4&issu
e=3&spage=264)
Agent-based Modeling Resources (https://web.archive.org/web/20110811053902/http://age
nt-based-models.com/), an information hub for modelers, methods, and philosophy for agent-
based modeling
An Agent-Based Model of the Flash Crash of May 6, 2010, with Policy Implications (http://ssr
n.com/abstract=2336772), Tommi A. Vuorenmaa (Valo Research and Trading), Liang Wang
(University of Helsinki - Department of Computer Science), October, 2013
Simulation models
Multi-agent Meeting Scheduling System Model by Qasim Siddique (http://ccl.northwestern.e
du/netlogo/models/community/Updated%20Meeting%20Scheduling)
Multi-firm market simulation by Valentino Piana (http://www.economicswebinstitute.org/essa
ys/fixedvar.htm)
List of COVID-19 simulation models
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Agent-based model

1970s and 1980s: the first models

2000s and later

Examples of ABM use in epidemiology

[57] SEIR model implemented in Python with an emphasis on features for

An individual-based transmission model of SARS-CoV-2 infection and

In business, technology and network theory

In economics and social sciences

Organizational ABM: agent-directed simulation

Integration with other modeling forms

Verification and validation

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