This article was downloaded by: [Moskow State Univ Bibliote]

On: 07 January 2014, At: 00:17

Publisher: Taylor & Francis
Informa Ltd Registered in England and Wales Registered Number: 1072954 Registered office: Mortimer House,
37-41 Mortimer Street, London W1T 3JH, UK

Marine Geodesy
Publication details, including instructions for authors and subscription information:
http://www.tandfonline.com/loi/umgd20

Climate change and sea level rise in Bangladesh, part I:

Numerical simulation
a b c
Selina Begum & George Fleming
a
Water Resources Engineering Department , Bangladesh University of Engineering and
Technology , Dhaka, Bangladesh
b
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering , University of Bradford , West
Yorkshire, BD7 1DP, United Kingdom
c
Department of Civil Engineering , University of Strathclyde , Glasgow, Scotland
Published online: 10 Jan 2009.

To cite this article: Selina Begum & George Fleming (1997) Climate change and sea level rise in Bangladesh, part I: Numerical
simulation, Marine Geodesy, 20:1, 33-53

To link to this article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01490419709388093

PLEASE SCROLL DOWN FOR ARTICLE

Taylor & Francis makes every effort to ensure the accuracy of all the information (the “Content”) contained in the
publications on our platform. However, Taylor & Francis, our agents, and our licensors make no representations
or warranties whatsoever as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability for any purpose of the Content. Any
opinions and views expressed in this publication are the opinions and views of the authors, and are not the
views of or endorsed by Taylor & Francis. The accuracy of the Content should not be relied upon and should be
independently verified with primary sources of information. Taylor and Francis shall not be liable for any losses,
actions, claims, proceedings, demands, costs, expenses, damages, and other liabilities whatsoever or howsoever
caused arising directly or indirectly in connection with, in relation to or arising out of the use of the Content.

This article may be used for research, teaching, and private study purposes. Any substantial or systematic
reproduction, redistribution, reselling, loan, sub-licensing, systematic supply, or distribution in any
form to anyone is expressly forbidden. Terms & Conditions of access and use can be found at http://
www.tandfonline.com/page/terms-and-conditions
 Climate Change and Sea Level Rise in Bangladesh,
Part I: Numerical Simulation

SELINA BEGUM
Water Resources Engineering Department
Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology
Dhaka, Bangladesh
Downloaded by [Moskow State Univ Bibliote] at 00:17 07 January 2014

GEORGE FLEMING
Department of Civil Engineering
University of Strathclyde
Glasgow, Scotland

Numerical hydrodynamic models in one and two dimensions have been developed to
simulate the effects of possible global climate and sea level changes on flooding in
Bangladesh. The low, medium, and high scenarios of rise in sea level have been
selected from the predictions of the general circulation models (GCMS). The models
have been applied to test the sensitivity of flooding in Bangladesh to different scenarios
of rise in sea level and increase in river discharge. The models have also been applied
to simulate the combined effects of rise in sea level and increase in river discharge.
Flooding in the coastal region and also in the upstream parts of the rivers has been
found to be severely affected as a result of changes in the hydrodynamics of flow. The
study is a combination of climate, hydrology, and hydraulics. This study will aid in
preventive planning and sustainable development to cope with future scenarios of
changes in flooding due to climate and sea level.

Keywords backwater effect. Bay of Bengal, climate, hydrodynamic models, sea

level

Flooding is a recurring phenomenon all over the world. Half of humanity inhabits coastal
areas. Increases in population and human activities are changing the global climate and
the world flood situation. The homes and lives of millions of people living in the deltas
of the world are at risk due to flooding.

Received 25 January 1994; accepted 30 September 1995.

The authors would like to thank the Association of Commonwealth Universities in the United
Kingdom for their financial support in the form of a scholarship to pursue this research in the
Department of Civil Engineering, University of Strathclyde (UK). The authors would like to express
their grateful appreciation to Dr. John Townson, Dept. of Civil Engineering, University of Strath-
clyde, for his comments and valuable suggestions. The authors would also like to thank the
Bangladesh Water Development Board, the Bangladesh Inland Water Transport Authority, the
Master Plan Organisation, the Surface Water Modelling Centre, and the Bangladesh Space Research
and Remote Sensing Organisation for the provision of data.
Address correspondence to Dr. Selina Begum, Department of Civil and Environmental Engi-
neering, University of Bradford BD7 1DP, West Yorkshire, United Kingdom.

33
Marine Geodesy, 20:33-53, 1997
Copyright © 1997 Taylor & Francis
0149-0419/97 $12.00 + .00
 34 S. Begum and G. Fleming

Surface hydrology and hydraulic characteristics of a delta differ from those in the
upper parts of a river basin. Deltaic areas are exposed to floods caused by the propagation
of astronomical tides and to floods due to high flow from the upstream portions of the
rivers. Tides propagate into river mouths and reach a greater or smaller distance from the
coastline depending on the tidal range, the upstream discharge of the river, and the river
cross section. Deltas are most vulnerable to flooding because of the low elevation of the
land areas, the low gradient of the rivers and land areas, and rapid morphological changes
in the rivers.
The flood problem of deltaic areas may be aggravated by global climate changes.
Atmospheric concentrations of certain trace gases (CO,, CH4, N2O, CFCS, etc.) is in-
creasing due to human activities and population pressure, leading to the "greenhouse
Downloaded by [Moskow State Univ Bibliote] at 00:17 07 January 2014

effect." If the current trend of greenhouse gas emissions continues, there may be an
increase of surface temperature of between 1.5 and 4.5°C. A global warming of this
magnitude could lead to a sea level rise of 20 to 140 cm by the middle of the next century
(Villach-Bellagio, 1987). By the year 2100, global sea level may rise between 1.44 and
2.17 m (Titus, 1987). Most models agree that the initial rates of increase will be small
relative to the much more rapid rate expected from 2050 on. For each degree of global
warming, worldwide precipitation may be expected to increase by 2-3%, and substantial
changes may occur in the timing and distribution of regional rainfall. The flood situation
in deltas will worsen if there is an increase in river discharge and a rise in sea level as a
consequence of global warming. Moreover, most deltas are subsiding, and this, in addition
to eustatic sea level rise, leads to a relative sea level rise (RSLR) rate which is much
greater than eustatic rise. Hence the homes and lives of millions of people living in the
deltas of the Ganges, the Nile, the Mekong, the Yangtze, and the Mississippi could be at
risk due to sea level rise and increased river flooding as a consequence of global warming.

Flooding in Bangladesh and the Risk Due to Climate Change

Bangladesh is in one of the largest and wettest river deltas in the world. It is situated on
the northern and eastern edge of the Bay of Bengal. The total land area of Bangladesh is
144,000 km2, with a coastal shoreline of about 710 km. The average land elevation ranges
from mean sea level to 30 m above, while more than half of the country has an elevation
of less than 8 m above mean sea level (MSL). The three main rivers, the Ganges, the
Brahmaputra, and the Meghna, drain more than 1.5 million km2, with less than 10% of
the catchment area within Bangladesh (Figure 1). Numerous tributaries and distributaries
of the Ganges-Meghna-Brahmaputra (G-M-B) system interlace and cover the entire coun-
try. These rivers rise in the Himalayan hills and finally flow into the Bay of Bengal.
The G-M-B network carries a large volume of water and sediment. The distribution
of these loads varies between the very wet monsoon season (June-September) and the
relatively drier winter months. However, streamflow in Bangladesh depends heavily on
inflows which originate outside the country. Cross-boundary inflow enters Bangladesh
through numerous rivers including the main river system. This cross-boundary inflow is
approximately 90% of total available streamflow in the country. Each day an average of
approximately 34,400 million m3 of streamflow is discharged into the Bay of Bengal,
which is about 3.9 times the average daily rainfall in Bangladesh (MPO, 1988).
The climate of Bangladesh is of tropical monsoon variety, characterized by high
temperature, heavy rainfall, and excessive humidity, with marked seasonal variation. The
catchment area of G-M-B system experiences heavy rainfall. About 80% of the total
annual rainfall is concentrated in the 4-month monsoon period (June-September). The
 Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: Numerical Simulation 35
Downloaded by [Moskow State Univ Bibliote] at 00:17 07 January 2014

Figure 1. The Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Meghna River Basins. (Source: World Bank, 1991)
 36 S. Begum and G. Fleming

mean annual rainfall of Bangladesh ranges from 1,400 mm to over 5,000 mm. In general,
rainfall within Bangladesh contributes only 10-15% to the streamflow. A significant
contribution to the flow of the Brahmaputra River comes from the melting of snow in the
Himalayas. At Cherapunji, India, one of the heaviest-rainfall areas in the world, the
average annual precipitation is about 12 m. In a wet year, rainfall exceed 25 m. Most of
this rainwater finds its way through the rivers of Bangladesh and discharges to the Bay
of Bengal.
Bangladesh faces flooding every year. Two recent floods were catastrophic (1987
and 1988). In September 1988, Bangladesh experienced its most extensive flooding in
living memory. In general, the spatial distribution of rainfall, variable runoff response,
variable topography, land use and high astronomical tides in the Bay of Bengal contribute
Downloaded by [Moskow State Univ Bibliote] at 00:17 07 January 2014

to the floods experienced in Bangladesh every year. In addition to this, the flat topography
of the country, the low gradient and reduced drainage capacity of the rivers, synchroni-
zation of floods in the major rivers, flood control activities upstream, and tectonic activity
lead to excessive flooding in Bangladesh.
In a delta it is quite important to know whether high tide and high upstream discharge
of the river coincide. In addition, if there is a rise in sea level and an increase in river
discharge, the flood situation is likely to worsen. The long-term implications of the
greenhouse effect with the addition of population explosion could make Bangladesh more
vulnerable to flooding in years to come. This complicated hydrodynamic phenomena
requires the application of specialized mathematical computations.

Scope of Study
Bangladesh is situated around the Tropic of Cancer, roughly between 20°34' and 26°38'
in north latitude and 88°01 ' and 92°41 ' in east longitude. The main features of the Ganges-
Meghna-Brahmaputra delta are the complex river network, the low gradient of.the rivers,
low terrain, heavy rainfall, exposure to the sea, and high population. The main input to
this dynamic system is excessive flow and sediment through the rivers and high tides
from the sea. The system's response to the input results in flood and drought (Figure 2).
This physical system is highly sensitive to the input of flow through the inland boundaries
as well as to other hydrometeorological and hydraulic conditions. The main components
of the hydrologie cycle and hence the generation of streamflow are precipitation and
evapotranspiration. The hydrologie cycle is governed by complex climate phenomena
which are part of the global climate system. Hence any change in the global energy
balance will affect the global climate system along with the timing and distribution of
local and regional precipitation, which in turn will lead to changes in the magnitude and
frequency of flooding.
Since streamflow in the downstream portion of the G-M-B system in Bangladesh is
highly dependent on the rainfall in the upper catchment, it is necessary to simulate the
changes in runoff and input to the rivers due to possible increases in rainfall and evapo-
transpiration. It is also necessary to develop a mathematical link among climate, hydrol-
ogy, and hydraulics in order to assess future scenarios of flooding in Bangladesh due to
climate and sea level changes.

Modeling System and Major Objectives of the Study

A database modeling system has been developed (Figure 3) to study the problem. To
simulate the changes in water balance, the Stanford watershed model has been modified.
 Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: Numerical Simulation 37

RIVER FLOW
(PROCESS)

RIVER FLOW
RIVER FLOW CPROCESS)
(PROCESS) ; FLOOD
SYSTEMS
DROUGHT
"RESPONSE
Downloaded by [Moskow State Univ Bibliote] at 00:17 07 January 2014

STORM SURGE

Figure 2. Definition of problem.

A climate model has been developed to simulate the changes in rainfall and evapotran-
spiration due to increase in temperature. The climate model has been linked with the
watershed model as a subroutine.
Explicit finite-difference hydrodynamic models in x-t and x-y-t space have been
developed for the G-M-B system. As indicated in Figure 3, output of the watershed model
has been considered as input to the hydrodynamic model. Another input to the hydrody-
namic model is sea level.
The major objectives of the study are to simulate:
(1) The effects of different scenarios of increase in river discharge on flooding in
Bangladesh
(2) The effects of different scenarios of sea level rise on flooding in Bangladesh
(3) The combined effects of sea level rise and increase in river discharge on flooding
in Bangladesh
The study is a combination of climate, hydrology, and hydraulics. No detailed study
has yet been undertaken in the G-M-B delta or in any other river basin to assess the
changes in the hydraulic characteristics as a result of changes in river discharge and rise
in sea level. The present study has significant importance in the assessment of the effects
of climate and sea level changes on flooding in Bangladesh and thus should aid preventive
planning.

Study Area
The Ganges-Meghna-Brahmaputra delta as shown in Figure 4 has been selected to sim-
ulate the effects of possible global climate and sea level changes on flooding in Bangla-
desh. The study area of the present hydrodynamic model is bounded on the north by
Mawa on the Ganges and by Bhairab Bazar on the Meghna, and on the south by Ram-
daspur near the estuary. Heavy rainfall occurs within the catchment area of the G-M-B
system.
 38 S. Begum and G. Fleming

HTORODYNA.MIC .MODEL
OF RIVER AND FLOOD
PLAIN

PLOTTING 3 D FLOW. niJEAM)

MAPS SEA IJ:VKL DATA
Downloaded by [Moskow State Univ Bibliote] at 00:17 07 January 2014

tUSTOIUC.U.I)lt
TEIUMIN MODEL CUIUIENT
RECORD

LAM) DR
SATELLITE DATA

TOPOCR.VPH1C
DATA OF
• CHANNEL AND
FLOOD PLAIN

FIELD OR
SATELLITE OATA

Figure 3. Different phases of modeling.

The pattern of tidal flow is complex along the Bangladesh coast. The tide is mainly
semidiurnal. Tides along the Bangladesh coast originate in the Indian Ocean and are
amplified at the head of the Bay of Bengal due to nonlinear shallow-water effect. Table
1 shows the mean spring tidal range along the Bangladesh coast. Figure 5 shows the

Table 1
Mean spring tidal range at different stations along the coast of Bangladesh

Mean spring
tidal range
Station (m)

Hiron Point 2.95

Tiger Point 3.15
Khepupara 2.28
Galachipa 2.96
Char Chenga 3.56
Sandwip 6.01
Chittagong Khal-10 4.81
Cox's Bazar 3.58
Shahpuri Island 3.37
 Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: Numerical Simulation 39

locations of tide gauges. Located at the same latitudinal distances, the tidal range at Cox's
Bazar is higher than Hiron Point, partly because of the differences in the transitional shelf
width (see Figure 5) and partly because of the Coriolis acceleration which provides higher
ranges along the eastern coast in the northern hemisphere (Barua, 1991). Land elevations
are commonly below high tide level in the coastal area.
Downloaded by [Moskow State Univ Bibliote] at 00:17 07 January 2014

L E 8 E H 0
— lnf«rnotionq
Oiltrict

• Oittrict
• Othir c l t i i i

Figure 4. Study area.

 40 S. Begum and G. Fleming
Downloaded by [Moskow State Univ Bibliote] at 00:17 07 January 2014

» Woter level Observations Tidal Cycle Observations

\ Hiron Point 2 Tiger Point A Pussur Estuary
3 Khepupara í Gatachipa
6 Sandwip • V*st »habaiDur channel
5 Char Chenca
7 Chittaoong khal-18 8 Chitîaoong khai-10 » Harinçata Eituary
9 Cors Bazar f> Shahpuri island

Figure 5. Locations of tidal stations.

Development of the Numerical Schemes

The basic flow equations used in the modeling of rivers are the continuity equation derived
from the conservation of mass and the momentum equation derived from Newton's second
law, the principle of conservation of momentum. These equations are based on the
assumption that the pressure varies hydrostatically in the vertical. This assumption is
justified for problems which are much larger in the horizontal than in the vertical.
Unsteady-flow, explicit finite-difference models in x-t and x-y-t has been developed
based on numerical solution of the general Saint Venant equations (conservation of mass
and momentum). After simplification, the equations take the following form:

^ + 7- (UH) + f (VH) = 0 (1)

dt dx dy

(2)
dt dx dy ' dx HC-

dV dV äV dZ gW(lT- + V2)
(3)
 Climate Change and Sea Level Rise; Numerical Simulation 41

where U, V = depth mean velocities

H = total depth
Ü = Coriolis coefficient
íit/, ÍIV = horizontal components of the Coriolis force
C = Chezy roughness coefficient
Equations (1), (2), and (3) are also known as shallow-water equations. The present explicit
finite-difference schemes have been formulated through numerical integration of the
shallow-water equations with various types of boundary conditions.
In the model, the closed grid line boundary represents the irregular coastline of the
problem area. Reflection of waves is assumed to occur at this boundary. Reflecting
conditions are created by setting components of velocity normal to the boundary equal to
Downloaded by [Moskow State Univ Bibliote] at 00:17 07 January 2014

zero. In addition, free slip conditions are assumed along the boundary for the parallel
velocity components. A graphic technique known as the method of mirror images has
been applied for the solution of the reflecting boundaries.
Various boundary configurations may arise as the model's reflecting boundary follows
a grid line. Grid points on the reflecting boundary have been classified into three different
categories, edge points, salient corner points, and reentrant corner points, as shown in
Figure 6.
At an edge point with configuration code 1-4, the normal component of velocity is
set to zero; while at salient comer point 5-8, both components of velocity are set to zero.
However, at a reentrant comer point (0), both components of velocity are present. Two
alternative solution techniques can be applied at the reflecting boundary points: the method
of mirror images and the bicharacteristics approach.
A smoothing term has been introduced in the present numerical scheme. The built-
in smoothing term introduces a dissipative interface which stabilizes the numerical com-
putation. Forward differences have been for the time derivatives and centered differences
for the space derivatives, synthesizing an explicit numerical scheme (Begum, 1992).

Method of Mirror Image

An imaginary fluid domain is assumed on the outer side of the reflecting boundary and at
the same time a flow field is introduced into the imaginary domain. The variables in the

Salient Corner Point _ Edge

^i

G
Figure 6. Reflecting boundary types and their codes.
 42 S. Begum and G. Fleming

imaginary fluid domain are mirror images of the variables in the real fluid domain. The
subsequent flow field within the real domain remains unaltered. A scalar object (say, fluid
depth) and a vector (say, velocity) parallel to the boundary appear as they are, but a
vector orthogonal to the boundary appears to be reversed in direction. Thus, for an edge
point with configuration code 3, we have

l/(i - l.j) = -U(i + Uj) V(i - l . j ) = VU + l . j )

H(i - 1, j) = W + l.j) Z{x - 1, j) = Z(i + l . j )

The edge point can now be treated as an interior point as shown in Figure 7.
Downloaded by [Moskow State Univ Bibliote] at 00:17 07 January 2014

At a salient corner point the domain is extended along two directions. Hence for a
grid point with configuration code 7, we have

£/(i - 1,j) = -U(i + l,j) V(i - l . j ) = V(i + l . j )

H(i - 1,j) = H(i + 1,j) Z(/ - l.j) = Z(i + l.j)

U(i,j + 1) = U(i,j - 1) V(i.j + 1) = V(i,j - 1)

H(i,j + 1) = //(/ + j - 1) Z(i,j + 1) = Z(i,j - 1)

Chowdhury (1982) compared the method of mirror images with the bicharacteristics
method for two-dimensional standing waves in a rectangular basin and observed that the
method of mirror images gives the better solution. However, the bicharacteristics method
introduces numerical damping into the solution, while the mirror image approach does
not show such damping and reproduces total reflection at the boundary. Therefore, in this
study the mirror image technique has been used for the solution of reflecting boundaries.

-V*

f!
1-ve
Imaginary > ,
-vc

Figure 7. Bicharacteristic network at an edge point for mirror image approach.

 Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: Numerical Simulation 43

The Open Boundary

An open boundary arises where the computational region is connected to some other fluid
region with which mass and momentum exchange takes place. This boundary imposes a
limit to the flow domain. Open boundaries are either open river boundaries or open sea
boundaries. The known dependent variables outside the computational region then become
the inputs to the system. The inputs to the boundaries are time-dependent discharge or
velocity component normal to the boundary (open river boundary) and time-dependent
water level (open sea boundary). However, the time-dependent variables outside the fluid
domain are not always known. The variables outside the domain can be assumed. This
assumption may be followed by linear variation of the variable one space increment from
the boundary in the fluid domain, at the boundary and outside the fluid domain. An
Downloaded by [Moskow State Univ Bibliote] at 00:17 07 January 2014

alternative method is to assume the variable outside the fluid domain to be equal to the
variable at the boundary. These assumptions are close to reality as long as the fluid
domain outside the computational area is relatively large and still.
The present study area comprises three open river boundaries and an open sea bound-
ary as shown in Figure 8.

Modeling Channel and Flood Plain Flow

The interaction between channel and flood plain flow is of considerable importance in a
delta, especially near the estuary. Different conditions of flow can arise between channels
and flood plains, leading to a very complex hydraulic phenomenon. A weir-type relation
with different flow conditions has been introduced during overbank flow simulation
(Begum, 1992). In the case of a delta, shallow bays, or estuaries which are associated
with low-lying adjacent terrain, the hydrodynamic phenomenon becomes more compli-
cated because shallow areas experience repetitive flooding and drying with each tidal
cycle or with the passage of a flood wave. This adds a degree of complication in modeling.
A new set of conditions has been introduced into the model for flooding and drying in
the shallow-water region (Begum, 1992). A wet grid is allowed to dry by anticipating the
water level through linear extrapolation. In addition, some of the techniques documented
by Leendertse and Gritton (1971) and by Falconer (1987) have been applied. A depth-
dependent relation of Chezy roughness coefficient has been introduced in the model during
overbank flow simulation (Begum, 1992).

Interfacing of One- and Two-Dimensional Models

Interfacing of one- and two-dimensional flows is a common problem if the study region
covers a network of channels and a downstream part of the estuary. Flow in the wide
estuarine portion is two-dimensional in nature. The interfacing of the two models can be
effected at a narrow section where transverse components of velocity are small.
In the present modeling system, interfacing of the two models has been effected at a
section between the Upper and Lower Meghna River as shown in Figure 8. Explicit finite-
difference equations for one- and two-dimensional models have been solved simultane-
ously and the computations on both sides of the interfacing section advanced. Distance
and time steps in both one and two dimensions have been kept the same.
 44 S. Begum and G. Fleming

--/y1—Bhairab
Bazar

Narsingdi
9.
Downloaded by [Moskow State Univ Bibliote] at 00:17 07 January 2014

JJ \ Ramdaspur

Figure 8. Location of interfacing section and the water level stations.

Data Requirement and Data Collection

The present modeling system requires three types of data: hydrometeorologic, hydraulic,
and topographic. The hydrometeorologic data consist of temperature, evapotranspiration,
and precipitation. In this study it is very important to study the changes in rainfall-runoff
in the upper catchment, since more than 90% of the catchment area of the G-M-B system
lies outside Bangladesh. However, no hydrometeorologic data were available from the
upper catchment. Hydraulic data generally consists of stage and discharge hydrographs,
tidal records, spot measurements of stage, discharge, and velocity, limits of the flooded
area and depths, etc. Bed roughness, discharge coefficients, and other hydraulic param-
eters generally cannot be measured directly. These parameters normally are obtained
during model calibration.
 Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: Numerical Simulation 45

Ten years' mean daily discharge at Mawa on the Ganges and Bhairab Bazar on the
Meghna have been collected from the Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB)
to define boundary conditions in the model. Discharge data are not available at the third
boundary of the model, at the confluence of the Lakhya and Meghna Rivers. Output of a
rainfall-runoff model for the catchment of the Lakhya have been collected from Surface
Water Modelling Centre (SWMC) and taken as boundary data at this location. To perform
model calibration, 10 years' daily water level data at 10 stations, including tidal data at
the open sea boundary, have been collected from BWDB and Bangladesh Inland Water
Transport Authority (BIWTA). Figure 8 shows the locations of the water level stations
selected.
Topographic data comprises cross sections of the river from bank to bank, and land
Downloaded by [Moskow State Univ Bibliote] at 00:17 07 January 2014

levels of the flood plains. Topographic levels on flood plains in a 4-km2 grid have been
collected from the Master Plan Organisation (MPO). These land levels were derived from
the 4-in.-to-a-mile and 8-in.-to-a-mile topographic maps, from the survey of Bangladesh
between 1952 and 1962, which give contours at 1-ft interval and spot levels.
A total of 35 channel cross sections have been collected from BWDB and SWSMC.
Of these, 23 cross sections are for the Meghna and 12 are for the Ganges (Padma).
Although there is some discrepency in the raw data, checks on the consistency of the data
have been performed by SWSMP. Cross-sectional data have been collected for the year
1987-1988, because this is the only year for which data are available in both Padma and
Meghna. Depths between measured sections have been obtained by linear interpolation.

Schematization
The flow domain where computation is required to be carried out is divided into a square
mesh of size As = 1.7 km for the two-dimensional model. For the one-dimensional
model, the river is divided into reach lengths of As = 1.7 km. A value of Ai = 100 s is
selected with As = 1.7 km. This is obtained by satisfying the global stability criterion

As
At <

where H is the total depth of water.

The stability criterion suggests that the numerical solution coincides with the analyt-
ical solution if Ai and At are selected in such a way that they satisfy the equivalence.

Initial Conditions
The initial water level is assumed to be horizontal, with zero velocity throughout the flow
domain. A still water level equal to the mean water level of the tide at the open sea
boundary is specified throughout the flow domain.

Boundary Conditions
Observed mean daily discharge is specified at the three open river boundaries. The time-
dependent discharge compatible with the time step of simulation is obtained by interpo-
lation. Along the open sea boundary, a sinusoidal wave with amplitude equal to half the
tidal range is defined.
 46 S. Begum and G. Fleming

Model Calibration
The interfaced one- and two-dimensional model and the one-dimensional model has been
calibrated for the 1987 flood event. The calibration process involves adjustment of the
friction coefficient until the simulated water level agrees reasonably with the recorded
water level. In the model, factional resistance is defined as a constant value of Chezy
coefficient throughout the channel, as long as the flow is confined within the channel. A
depth-dependent Chezy coefficient is introduced when there is overbank flow (Begum,
1992).
Calibration of the one-dimensional model and the interfaced one- and two-dimen-
sional model was performed for several flood events in August-September 1987. Cali-
bration was performed in five different stages (Begum, 1992). Simulated water levels
Downloaded by [Moskow State Univ Bibliote] at 00:17 07 January 2014

from both models were quite satisfactory. However, simulation with the interfaced model
showed that the water level at stations 4 and 5 is less than the observed value. In order
to maintain the stability of the numerical scheme, the time step of simulation was reduced
which caused damping in water level at stations 4 and 5 (Begum, 1993).

Sensitivity Analysis
After calibration, the model was tested for different scenarios of sea level rise and increase
in river discharge and their combined effects. The low, medium, and high scenarios of
sea level changes were selected as 0.2 m, 0.6 m, and 1.4 m rise in sea level and 10%,
15%, and 20% increase in river discharge, respectively. The scenarios were adopted as
predicted by the GCMS.

Sensitivity of Sea Level Rise

Figure 9 shows the sensitivity of flooding to the rise in sea level for the low, medium,
and high scenarios, i.e., 0.2 m, 0.6 m, and 1.4 m rise in sea level, respectively. The
simulation showed that the area near the estuary has been affected more by the rise in sea
level. As shown in Figure 9, the increase in water level at stations 1, 2, and 3 is much
higher than at other stations. Water level near the estuary rises by about 6 m with 1.4-m
rise in sea level. Most of the coastal area is below 1.5 m above mean sea level, and the
area near the confluence is below 3 m above mean sea level. Hence both the depth and
the extent of inundation increase with rise in sea level. Even with a 0.2-m rise in sea
level, the water level increases between 4.5 and 5 m near the estuary. However, the water
levels in the Ganges and the Upper Meghna also increase significantly due to the back-
water effect as a result of changes in the hydrodynamics of flow. Hence both the severity
and the extent of flooding increase even in the upstream portion of the rivers. Simulation
showed that flooding in Bangladesh is very sensitive to different scenarios of rise in sea
level.

Sensitivity of Increase in River Discharge

Due to lack of information from the upper catchment, it has not been possible to simulate
the changes in runoff as a result of changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration.
Possible changes in runoff in the upper catchment have been selected as inputs to the
hydrodynamic model. To accomplish sensitivity analysis, input of discharge in the open
river boundaries has been increased by 10%, 15%, and 20%. Simulation shows moderate
sensitivity to increase in river discharge of up to 20% (Figure 10).
Downloaded by [Moskow State Univ Bibliote] at 00:17 07 January 2014

8 D • • obs
+ + 0 . 2m
7 * + 0 . 6m
A +1 . 4m

¿ 6
ai
e
5
c

01

ai
2
2

4 5 6 7 8 10

station

Figure 9. Sensitivity of different scenarios of sea level rise.

 8 D - D obs
Downloaded by [Moskow State Univ Bibliote] at 00:17 07 January 2014

+ + 10*
7 K + 15*
H +20*
6
(D
Ê
5

4
>
tu
3
Of

5 6 7 8 10
station

Figure 10. Sensitivity of different scenarios of discharge.

 Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: Numerical Simulation 49

Sensitivity of the Combined Effect of a Rise in Sea Level and Increase in River
Discharge
Sensitivity of the combined effect of rise in sea level and increase in river discharge has
been carried out for the following scenarios:
(1) A 0.2-m rise in sea level with 10%, 15%, and 20% increase in river discharge
(2) A 0.6-m rise in sea level with 10%, 15%, and 20% increase in river discharge
(3) A 1.4-m rise in sea level with 10%, 15%, and 20% increase in river discharge
The model shows moderate sensitivity to the combined effects of a 0.2-m rise in sea
level and 10%, 15%, and 20% increase in river discharge. Simulation shows that the
system is very sensitive to the combined effects of a 1.4-m rise in sea level with 10%,
Downloaded by [Moskow State Univ Bibliote] at 00:17 07 January 2014

15%, and 20% increase in river discharge (Figure 11). The extent and severity of flooding
increases significantly throughout the river system, especially in the coastal area. As
found before, the increase in water level in the Ganges is less compared to that in the
Upper Meghna due to the combined effect of rise in sea level and increase in river
discharge.

Sensitivity of a 2-m Rise in Sea Level and a 20% Increase in River Discharge
The worst condition of flooding arises when there is a 2.0-m rise in sea level. In addition,
if there is a 20% increase in river discharge, the water level rises very high throughout
the flow domain, as shown in Figure 12. Water level in the coastal area rises by about
60-80%. Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh, will face serious flooding if this condition
arises. Since the delta is subsiding, the relative rise in sea level could be much higher
than the eustatic rise in sea level.

Discussion of Results
It is evident from sensitivity analysis that the hydrodynamics of flow changes with a rise
in sea level and an increase in river discharge. Hence both the coastal zone and the
upstream river region will be affected by a rise in sea level and the resulting backwater
effect.
Until now, no detailed work has been undertaken to study the effects of a rise in sea
level and an increase in river discharge in the Ganges-Meghna-Brahmaputra delta, or in
any other river basin, by use of a full hydrodynamic model. Most studies apply linear
interpolation between land elevation and rise in water level. Conclusions drawn on the
depth and area of flooding based on this approach cannot produce actual scenarios of
flooding due to sea level rise. Hence, estimating land loss simply by comparison of
topographic elevation and sea levels may exaggerate loss and neglect the important
changes in the hydrodynamics of flow and redistribution of sediment (Jelgersma et al.,
1993).
Since the quality of data input directly affects the quality of results obtained from the
model, steps should be taken to improve the existing database, including channel cross
sections, topographic maps, and installation of new gauges. Existing topographic maps
are 30-40 years old. Significant changes must have occurred during this time as a result
of erosion, deposition, and other morphologic changes. Available geometric data for
different rivers are not for the same year. In addition, survey benchmarks are very
uncertain. These benchmarks were established many decades ago. Local data from gauges
 D - - a obs
Downloaded by [Moskow State Univ Bibliote] at 00:17 07 January 2014

+ + 10*
M + 15*
A +20*
i. S

Ù
6
5
c

<u
>

a»
-P
5 2

2 3 . 4 5 6 10

station

Figure 11. Sensitivity of different scenarios of discharge and 1.4-m rise in sea level.
Downloaded by [Moskow State Univ Bibliote] at 00:17 07 January 2014

y -

8 - j

i
)-• ; E
:f

É
m ') -
i.
a» b -
> Ns
e
/

li
5 4 ~ ^ f i—-^

¿.

1 -

n -
5 6 10
station

Figure 12. Sensitivity of a 2-m rise in sea level and 20% increase in river discharge.
 52 S. Begum and G. Fleming

should be properly linked, hence it is urgently required to operate the national network
of survey benchmarks and tidal gauges.
Although the results of the present modeling system are not 100% accurate, the
results of this study may be of significant importance in assessing the effects of possible
changes in climate and sea level on flooding, agriculture, environment, and the socioeco-
nomics of Bangladesh. The study will aid preventive planning to safeguard the lives of
120 million Bangladeshis inhabiting the flood plains of South Asia's most powerful and
flood-prone rivers—the Ganges, the Brahmaputra, and the Meghna.
The same modeling techniques may also be applied to other river basins to assess the
effects of climate change and sea level rise.
Downloaded by [Moskow State Univ Bibliote] at 00:17 07 January 2014

Conclusions
1. The results of simulation show that the system is very sensitive to different
scenarios of sea level rise (20 cm, 60 cm, and 140 cm rise) and increase in river discharge
(10%, 15%, and 20% increase). The results indicate that both the depth and the extent of
flooding will increase in the study region. It is observed that the coastal region will be
affected more by a rise in sea level, since the water level rises more near the estuary and
the area has very low terrain.
2. Simulation also shows that the upstream portion of the river system, i.e., the
Upper Meghna and the Ganges, will also experience serious flooding due to backwater
effect as a result of the rise in sea level. It is evident from simulation that the backwater
effect is more prominent in the Upper Meghna than in the Ganges, because of changes
in the hydrodynamics of flow. The results also indicate that the severity of flooding
increases with the combined effect of a rise in sea level and an increase in river discharge.
3. The study shows that the worst flooding conditions will arise if there is a 2-m rise
in sea level and a 15-20% increase in river discharge. Simulation shows that the whole
of the study region will be severely affected with this scenario of changes. The water
level in the Lower Meghna shows an increase of 60-80% above 1987 flood level. Dhaka,
the capital of Bangladesh, will experience worse flooding if this condition arises. Hence,
protection measures should be planned to cope with the situation.
4. The hydraulic regime of the study region has been found to be disrupted due to
increased depth and frequency of flooding and changes in the hydrodynamics of flow.

Recommendations
1. The present study may be extended to assess the effects of climate change on
sediment transport characteristics.
2. In view of the anticipated climate change and sea level rise, the present hydrometric
and coastal measuring stations have to be strengthened. Improved information, data
networking, and exchange at regional and international levels is urgently required. All
tide gauge networks around the globe should be properly related to each other through
identification of common datums.
3. For future research and projects, it is urgently required to check the reliability of
survey benchmarks against which changes in sea level might be measured.
4. For the Bay of Bengal delta, the relative sea level rise could be much higher due
to land subsidence. The trends in vertical land movement along the Bangladesh coast
cannot yet be clearly identified because of problems in comparing data from different tide
gauges (datum problem), the quality of available data, and the length of the record.
 Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: Numerical Simulation • 53

Research should be undertaken to obtain accurate estimates of relative sea level changes
from tide gauge and geological data.

References
Barua, D. K. 1991. The coastline of Bangladesh—An overview of processes and forms. Proc. 7th
Symp. on Coastal & Ocean Management, Coastal Zone-91, ASCE, Long Beach, CA, July
8-12.
Begum, S. 1992. Flood problem of Bangladesh: Numerical simulation of the effects of possible
global climate and sea level changes. Ph.D. thesis. University of Strathclyde, Glasgow,
Scotland.
Begum, S. 1993. Numerical simulation of river and flood plain flow in the Ganges-Meghna Delta.
Downloaded by [Moskow State Univ Bibliote] at 00:17 07 January 2014

Advances in Hydroscience and Engineering, vol. 1, part B, pp. 1295-1300. In: S. Y. Wang
(ed.), Proc. of the First International Conference on Hydroscience and Engineering, ICHE
'93, Washington, D.C., June 7-11.
Chowdhury, J. U. 1982. Numerical models for shallow water tides in x-t river networks and x-y-t
space. Ph.D. thesis. University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, Scotland.
Falconer, R. A. 1987. Numerical simulation of flooding and drying in a depth averaged tidal flow
model. Proc. Inst. Civil Eng. Part 2, 83:161-180.
Jelgersma, S., M. van der Zijp, and R. Brinkman. 1993. Sea level rise and the coastal lowlands in
the developing world. J. Coastal Res. 9(3).
Leendertse, J. J., and E. C. Gritton. 1971. A water quality simulation model for well mixed
estuaries and coastal seas, Vol. 2, Computation Processes, RM-5294-PR. Santa Monica, CA:
Rand Corp.
MPO. 1988. Surface water availability, Tech. Rep. 10. Dakha, Bangladesh: Ministry of Irrigation,
Water Development and Flood Control, Government of Bangladesh.
Titus, J. G. 1987. The greenhouse effect, rising sea-level, and society's response. In: R. N. J.
Devoy (ed.), Sea Surface Studies, pp. 499-528. London: Groom Helm.
Villach-Bellagio. 1987. Developing policies for responding to climate change. Summary of work-
shop held at Villach (28 Sept.-2 Oct.) and Bellagio (9-13 Nov). A joint workshop by UNEP/
WMO/ICSU.