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The Ideas That Won’t Survive the Coronavirus

Covid-19 is killing off the myth that we are the greatest country on earth.

By Viet Thanh Nguyen

Contributing Opinion Writer

April 10, 2020

This article is part of “The America We Need,” a Times

Opinion series exploring how the nation can emerge from this
crisis stronger, fairer and more free. Read the introductory
editorial and the editor’s letter.

Sometimes people ask me what it takes to be a writer. The only things you have
to do, I tell them, are read constantly; write for thousands of hours; and have
the masochistic ability to absorb a great deal of rejection and isolation. As it
turns out, these qualities have prepared me well to deal with life in the time of
the coronavirus.
The fact that I am almost enjoying this period of isolation — except for bouts of
paranoia about imminent death and rage at the incompetence of our nation’s
leadership — makes me sharply aware of my privilege. It is only through my
social media feeds that I can see the devastation wreaked on people who have
lost their jobs and are worried about paying the rent. Horror stories are
surfacing from doctors and nurses, people afflicted with Covid-19, and those who
have lost loved ones to the disease.
Many of us are getting a glimpse of dystopia. Others are living it.
If anything good emerges out of this period, it might be an awakening to the pre-
existing conditions of our body politic. We were not as healthy as we thought we
were. The biological virus afflicting individuals is also a social virus. Its
symptoms — inequality, callousness, selfishness and a profit motive that
undervalues human life and overvalues commodities — were for too long
masked by the hearty good cheer of American exceptionalism, the ruddiness of
someone a few steps away from a heart attack.
Even if America as we know it survives the coronavirus, it can hardly emerge
unscathed. If the illusion of invincibility is shredded for any patient who
survives a near-fatal experience, then what might die after Covid-19 is the myth
that we are the best country on earth, a belief common even among the poor, the
marginal, the precariat, who must believe in their own Americanness if in
nothing else.

Perhaps the sensation of imprisonment during quarantine might make us

imagine what real imprisonment feels like. There are, of course, actual prisons
where we have warehoused human beings who have no relief from the threat of
the coronavirus. There are refugee camps and detention centers that are de
facto prisons. There is the economic imprisonment of poverty and
precariousness, where a missing paycheck can mean homelessness, where
illness without health insurance can mean death.

Debatable: Agree to disagree, or disagree better? Broaden your perspective with

sharp arguments on the most pressing issues of the week.

But at the same time, prisons and camps have often served as places where new
consciousnesses are born, where prisoners become radicalized, become
activists and even revolutionaries. Is it too much to hope that the forced
isolation of many Americans, and the forced labor of others, might compel
radical acts of self-reflection, self-assessment and, eventually, solidarity?
A crisis often induces fear and hatred. Already we are seeing a racist blowback
against Asians and Asian-Americans for the “Chinese virus.” But we have a
choice: Will we accept a world of division and scarcity, where we must fight over
insufficient resources and opportunities, or imagine a future when our society is
measured by how well it takes care of the ill, the poor, the aged and the
different?
As a writer, I know that such a choice exists in the middle of a story. It is the
turning point. A hero — in this case, the American body politic, not to mention
the president — is faced with a crucial decision that will reveal who he or she
fundamentally is.

We are not yet at the halfway point of our drama. We have barely made it to the
end of the first act, when we slowly awaken to the threat coming our way and
realize we must take some kind of action. That action, for now, is simply doing
what we must to fight off Covid-19 and survive as a country, weakened but alive.
The halfway point comes only when the hero meets a worthy opponent — not
one who is weak or marginal or different, but someone or something that is truly
monstrous. Covid-19, however terrible, is only a movie villain. Our real enemy
does not come from the outside, but from within. Our real enemy is not the virus
but our response to the virus — a response that has been degraded and
deformed by the structural inequalities of our society.
America has a history of settler colonization and capitalism that ruthlessly
exploited natural resources and people, typically the poor, the migratory, the
black and the brown. That history manifests today in our impulse to hoard,
knowing that we live in an economy of self-reliance and scarcity; in our
dependence on the cheap labor of women and racial minorities; and in our lack
of sufficient systems of health care, welfare, universal basic income and
education to take care of the neediest among us.
What this crisis has revealed is that, while almost all of us can become
vulnerable — even corporations and the wealthy — our government prioritizes
the protection of the least vulnerable.
If this was a classic Hollywood narrative, the exceptionally American
superhero, reluctant and wavering in the first act, would make the right choice
at this turning point. The evil Covid-19 would be conquered, and order would be
restored to a society that would look just as it did before the villain emerged.
But if our society looks the same after the defeat of Covid-19, it will be a Pyrrhic
victory. We can expect a sequel, and not just one sequel, but many, until we
reach the finale: climate catastrophe. If our fumbling of the coronavirus is a
preview of how the United States will handle that disaster, then we are doomed.
But amid the bumbling, there are signs of hope and courage: laborers striking
over their exploitation; people donating masks, money and time; medical
workers and patients expressing outrage over our gutted health care system; a
Navy captain sacrificing his career to protect his sailors; even strangers saying
hello to other strangers on the street, which in my city, Los Angeles, constitutes
a nearly radical act of solidarity.

I know I am not the only one thinking these thoughts. Perhaps this isolation will
finally give people the chance to do what writers do: imagine, empathize,
dream. To have the time and luxury to do these things is already to live on the
edge of utopia, even if what writers often do from there is to imagine the
dystopic. I write not only because it brings me pleasure, but also out of fear —
fear that if I do not tell a new story, I cannot truly live.
Americans will eventually emerge from isolation and take stock of the fallen,
both the people and the ideas that did not make it through the crisis. And then
we will have to decide which story will let the survivors truly live.
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The Coronavirus Is Showing Us Which

Entrepreneurs Matter
The owners of hair salons, bike shops and delis are stepping up to help their
communities, all while wondering if theyʼll make it.

By David Sax
Mr. Sax is a writer.

April 10, 2020

One sunny afternoon early in March, I hit the streets of my neighborhood,

visiting local businesses. I was hustling up donations for the silent auction fund-
raiser at my kids’ elementary school fair. Within the first two blocks, I had
already secured half a dozen prizes from business owners.
“We will definitely think of something cool,” said a woman that owned a tattoo
parlor. The elderly Portuguese ladies who run the tiny crochet shop lit up when
they told me how their grandchildren attended the school. The owner of a
Columbian takeout shop offered me 50 empanadas on the spot. A women’s
clothing designer handed me a $100 gift certificate, adding to those from the pet
store, nail salon, skateboard shop, record store, French restaurant and picture
framing place. The owner of a Taiwanese restaurant called Chop Chop promised
to come up with a donation that would be so outrageously tempting for parents,
it would turn our little silent auction into a full-fledged Christie’s bidding war.
If a business was owned and operated by entrepreneurs, whether they were
partners or individuals or families, they almost always offered their immediate
support. Those that were owned by bigger corporations or outside investors
almost never did. The entrepreneurs helped out because they are members of
our community. They live here. They know the residents. They walk by my
children’s school every morning.
That world seems lost now. Our school is closed, its playground locked. It is
unlikely that the school’s fair and auction will happen. But what worries me
most is the fate of the businesses that pledged their support, and the
entrepreneurs behind them. Many have already closed by order of the
government, which has deemed that all “nonessential” businesses will be shut
for the foreseeable future. Those that remain open, like the restaurants or coffee
shops offering takeout, are struggling to stay alive. Many won’t make it.

Even with the best intentioned and funded government grants, loans and aid
programs targeting entrepreneurs, the pandemic and its countermeasures will
force bankruptcy and closings on millions of businesses that cannot survive
more than a few weeks without customers.

The sad irony is that this is happening at a moment when, as a culture, we have
never been more obsessed with entrepreneurs. We have lionized them as daring
dreamers and heroes over the past decade, for driving innovations and
inventing the future. This is the bold, sexy entrepreneurship of Silicon Valley, led
by the holy trinity of Jobs, Musk, and Zuckerberg; the high stakes gamblers and
ruthless investors of “Shark Tank”; and the latest young Ivy League dropout to
launch a “disruptive” start-up and land a fawning profile on the cover of
business magazines, along with a few hundred million dollars in venture capital
funding.
But all the hype around Silicon Valley start-ups has obscured a more troubling
reality for entrepreneurs, because out in our communities, most entrepreneurs
have been struggling. Over the past 40 years, the number of Americans who are
self-employed and starting businesses has fallen by half. Look beyond the
incubators of San Francisco and away from the stages at tech expos, and
entrepreneurship has not been booming. Quite the opposite.
Many economists and policymakers believe that this is actually a sign of
progress. They argue that since most small businesses employ only a handful of
people, and that most of them are “lifestyle” businesses, without a desire to
innovate boldly or pursue exponential growth, a gradual decrease in their
numbers is positive news. The 99 percent of businesses that fall outside of
Silicon Valley’s definition of a start-up are effectively pointless, they argue, if not
utterly wasteful.
“The best way to boost productivity is to remove obstacles to the replacement of
small-scale, labor-intensive, technologically stagnant mom-and-pop firms with
dynamic, capital-intensive, technology-based businesses, which tend to be fewer
and bigger,” wrote Michael Lind and Robert Atkinson in their book, “Big Is
Beautiful: Debunking the Myth of Small Business.” “If government is to help
any small firms, it should focus on the start-ups that have the desire and
potential to get big, not on nurturing Ashley and Justin’s efforts to open a local
pizza shop.”

“The entrepreneurship that matters,” Scott Shane, a professor at the

Weatherhead School of Management at Case Western Reserve University,
stated in “Is Entrepreneurship Dead?,” “is not the broad swath of employer or
non-employer businesses but the high-potential start-ups that are backed by
sophisticated investors.” Creating more venture capital and angel-backed
companies, and fewer mom-and-pop retail shops, is ultimately positive, as “a
few extra Facebooks and Googles are probably worth a lot of clothing shops on
Main Street because they produce a lot more jobs and economic output.”
The thing that we tend to forget when we study entrepreneurs only as engines
of job creation, profits or other quantifiable markers of economic growth is that
every entrepreneur is a person, with hopes, dreams and feelings. Their
businesses are intricately tied into the fabric of their communities in a way that
numbers simply can’t capture.
In New Orleans, women in the Gentilly neighborhood now face losing a place
like Friends, a hair salon that cuts and styles the hair of middle-age,
professional African-American women, including the city’s mayor, LaToya
Cantrell. Its owner, a soft-spoken woman named Tanya Blunt-Haynes, described
Friends not as an investment or a source of income, but as a community center.
Her customers will linger for hours, long past when their treatments are
finished, catching up on neighborhood news with the staff or other customers,
ordering in crawfish platters, or just sitting in a chair, quietly reading a book.
Ms. Haynes plays soft jazz, gospel and R&B to create a relaxing mood. If
someone doesn’t have the money to pay her that day, or a relative needs help
with makeup for a wedding or funeral, Ms. Haynes will do the work for free, no
questions asked.
Several years back, when her son Jared was murdered, Ms. Haynes returned to
Friends, and was held by every single person who walked in the doors as she
cried in their arms. “That’s an amazing thing: the love of women,” she told me
two years ago, tearing up at the memory. “It’s not your grandmother, but it feels
like Grandma. It’s not your aunt, but it feels like your aunt. It’s not your sister,
but it feels like your sister.”
You see this same sense of community emerging in the entrepreneurs’ response
to the pandemic. Fashion designers are sewing desperately needed face masks,
craft distilleries are churning out hand sanitizer, restaurants are now donating
meals to the homeless and isolated senior citizens. Entrepreneurs see where
they can help their communities, and they step up.
Take my friend Andrew Badali, who usually teaches preschoolers music and is
now offering his singalong classes on Instagram every weekday morning, for
free, so that kids can get a dose of joy, and their parents can gain a precious hour
of freedom. My friends Mike and Jaime, who own a bike shop in Toronto, are
giving free tuneups to doctors, nurses and emergency medical workers so they
can safely get to work. In Los Angeles, my friend Alex Grossman is directing,
filming and editing commercials in his house (starring his family) for any small
business that needs a boost.
In some cases, the most heroic thing an entrepreneur can do is to carry on. At
New York’s Rockaway Beach Bakery, owner Tracy Obolsky still shows up each
morning, mixing and stretching dough, baking her famous ham, cheese and
everything bagel spice croissants (now takeout only), because her people need
something to eat and, more important, someone to talk with from a safe
distance. “I feel like people’s therapist,” she told me recently. “We are one of the
only normal moments left in people’s lives. Even if it is just an egg sandwich.”

But the entrepreneur I think about the most is Joel Tietolman, who owns the
Jewish delicatessen Mile End in Brooklyn. Even though Joel is desperately
trying to keep his business alive and his staff employed, offering takeout and
delivery, he is also spearheading a drive to provide free meals to hospital
workers around New York. Joel’s wife, Dr. Sally Bogoch, an E.R. doctor who
worked on the front lines at Maimonides Hospital until she was 38 weeks
pregnant, told him that the doctors, nurses, paramedics and others who are
facing the virus head-on would appreciate some matzo ball soup and a sandwich
almost as much as masks and gloves. So far, Joel has donated more than 300
meals to health care workers, and he plans to keep feeding hospital staff as long
as he can.
A lot of these entrepreneurs are still going to lose their businesses, and they will
have to deal with the financial and emotional trauma of that for years to come.
These are the entrepreneurs who matter now, more than ever. Not the ones on
the covers of magazines, not the billionaires and recipients of venture capital
checks, whose products we may use, but whose lives are distant and entirely
removed from the day-to-day of our communities. If Casper, WeWork or some
celebrity’s makeup company doesn’t survive this crisis, the impact on our lives
will be negligible. Elon Musk will be fine. But if we lose our barber, the fruit
store on the corner or the plumber who saved us in a flood, we will have lost a
piece of ourselves.
David Sax is the author of the forthcoming book, “The Soul of an Entrepreneur.”

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‘We Were Always Men’

One hundred and fifty years ago, Frederick Douglass understood the link
between voting rights and manhood for African-Americans.

By Henry Louis Gates Jr.

Dr. Gates is a professor at Harvard.

April 10, 2020

Writing in The New York Times 150 years ago this April 11, Frederick Douglass
celebrated the ratification of the 15th Amendment, which at long last banned
racial discrimination in voting nationwide. He hailed the extension of the
franchise to all eligible African-American men as a “revolution.”
“We were always men,” he wrote. “Now we are citizens and men among men.”
What did Douglass mean? Perhaps the most persistent political debate of his
lifetime had been about what exactly the founders meant when they wrote that
“all men are created equal.” After all, by the start of the Civil War, free African-
American men were, with few exceptions, excluded from the most fundamental
element of democratic life: the right to vote.

The silences and contradictions of the Declaration of Independence were

glaring. Thomas Jefferson himself confessed his “suspicion only” in his “Notes
on the State of Virginia,” written in the 1780s, that “the blacks, whether
originally a distinct race, or made distinct by time and circumstances, are
inferior to the whites in the endowments of both body and mind.” Intentionally
or not, Jefferson was advancing the idea that all men were not, well, “men,” at
least not in the same way.

Douglass had become a living argument for black Americans’ equal manhood.
Pressing the point in his most famous address, “What to the Slave Is the Fourth
of July?,” he turned to the law to make plain what should have been obvious to
all: “The manhood of the slave is conceded. It is admitted in the fact that
Southern statute books are covered with enactments forbidding, under severe
fines and penalties, the teaching of the slave to read or to write. When you can
point to any such laws in reference to the beasts of the field, then I may consent
to argue the manhood of the slave.”

Still, Douglass faced a culture that was not ready to embrace such proof or logic.
His position threatened the most basic justification for slavery since the
expansion of the slave trade in the 17th and 18th centuries.
Douglass thought the 15th Amendment had finally ended the argument about
black humanity. The fact that the amendment excluded women — a wrong that
would take another 50 years of struggle to right — only underscored the link
between voting and manhood.
From the time Douglass had emerged as a public figure in the 1840s, he had
been at war with two strains of mid-19th-century thought that denied the
humanity of people of African descent: the legal and the scientific.
In the 1857 Dred Scott decision, the U.S. Supreme Court Chief Justice Roger
Taney quoted the language of the Declaration and asserted that the men who
framed it “knew that it would not in any part of the civilized world be supposed
to embrace the negro race, which, by common consent, had been excluded from
civilized Governments and the family of nations, and doomed to slavery. “

The received scientific wisdom of the day drew from the same pool of “self-
evident truths” as did Chief Justice Taney. The Swiss naturalist Louis Agassiz
offered the same rationale for slavery. Agassiz had come to believe that people
of different races had not descended from a single Adam, but rather from
different Adams, who lived in different parts of the world. Therefore, he said, it
would be a mistake “to assume that races have the same abilities, enjoy the
same powers, and show the same natural dispositions, and that in consequence
of this equality they are entitled to the same position in human society.”
Douglass knew that all else in the quest for the abolition of slavery, and equal
status and protection under the laws depended on the refutation of the
scandalous allegation that the genetic origins and social and cultural evolution
of black people constituted prima facie justification for their second-class status.
He had to devote much of his oratory simply to “proving” the humanity of black
people. Speaking at Western Reserve College in 1854, in one of the first
commencement addresses ever delivered by an African-American, Douglass
deconstructed word by word a recent editorial in the notoriously racist
Richmond Examiner that argued that “the negro” did not have the same right to
liberty and the pursuit of happiness as the white man. The reason: “BECAUSE
HE IS NOT A MAN.”
Douglass, in his remarks, made his own declaration: “Tried by all the usual, and
all the unusual tests, whether mental, moral, physical, or psychological, the
negro is a MAN — considering him as possessing knowledge, or needing
knowledge, his elevation or his degradation, his virtues, or his vices —
whichever road you take, you reach the same conclusion: The negro is a MAN.”
Sixteen years later, when the 15th Amendment was ratified, Douglass knew that
while one battle may have been won, the forces of white supremacy and pro-
slavery stubbornly persisted, as he warned in his speech “Our Composite
Nationality” in 1869. Unfortunately, he was right: The promises of
Reconstruction gave way to the destructive emergence of Jim Crow. In the
continued need for African-Americans to account for their own humanity, we see
permutations of Douglass’s struggle: from the British antislavery catchphrase
popularized in the 1780s, “Am I Not a Man and a Brother?,” to the Memphis
sanitation workers’ signs proclaiming “I Am a Man” on the eve of Martin Luther
King Jr.’s assassination and in the very phrase “Black Lives Matter.”
Much has been made lately of the metaphor that anti-black racism is part of the
DNA of American culture. Some have taken offense, presuming incorrectly that
the genetic allusion suggests that America is unalterably racist. Rather, the
metaphor means to say that anti-black racism has been passed down through
the generations as an elemental aspect of American history and American
culture.
Genetics is not determinism. The 20,000 or so genes that compose the human
genome can each be silenced or amplified. Think of our genomes as akin to a
piano keyboard: The melodies it yields depend upon how it’s played. Racism,
like anti-Semitism, is a chord that we can choose to play or not. Or think of
racism as a cultural mutation. The introduction of that tainted mutation into our
country’s founding — and the weight it continues to place on black people to
prove themselves worthy of inclusion over and over again — is what is meant
by racism being part of our DNA. Mutations cannot be silenced by pretending
they are not there; they cannot be silenced by being censored or shouted down.
Mutations do not magically go away. But they can be combated, as the 15th
Amendment sought to combat the long history of denying the manhood of black
American men.

Squarely confronting the limits inscribed in our founding documents is the

beginning, at long last, of overcoming them. If we are learning to treat inherited
diseases such as cystic fibrosis and sickle cell, passed down for generations in
our DNA, surely we can learn to address the founding mutation of racism.
Some are fond of saying that racism lives in the past and that African-
Americans should “get over it.” But it is the past — particularly the doubts at the
founding over who, in fact, was encompassed in the grand claim that “all men
were created equal” — that Douglass felt compelled to address with the greatest
urgency and which our country still struggles to resolve today.
Henry Louis Gates Jr. is the director of the Hutchins Center for African & African American Research at
Harvard University and the author of “Stony the Road: Reconstruction, White Supremacy, and the
Rise of Jim Crow and host of Reconstruction: America After the Civil War.”

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Trump Has Emergency Powers We Aren’t

Allowed to Know About
Given that they could make their first appearance in the coronavirus crisis,
Congress should insist on having full access to them.

By Elizabeth Goitein and Andrew Boyle

Ms. Goitein and Mr. Boyle work at the Brennan Center for Justice at New
York University School of Law.

April 10, 2020

The past few weeks have given Americans a crash course in the powers that
federal, state and local governments wield during emergencies. We’ve seen
businesses closed down, citizens quarantined and travel restricted. When
President Trump declared emergencies on March 13 under both the Stafford Act
and the National Emergencies Act, he boasted, “I have the right to do a lot of
things that people don’t even know about.”
The president is right. Some of the most potent emergency powers at his
disposal are likely ones we can’t know about, because they are not contained in
any publicly available laws. Instead, they are set forth in classified documents
known as “presidential emergency action documents.”
These documents consist of draft proclamations, executive orders and proposals
for legislation that can be quickly deployed to assert broad presidential
authority in a range of worst-case scenarios. They are one of the government’s
best-kept secrets. No presidential emergency action document has ever been
released or even leaked. And it appears that none has ever been invoked.
Given the real possibility that these documents could make their first
appearance in the coronavirus crisis, Congress should insist on having full
access to them to ensure that they are consistent with the Constitution and basic
principles of democracy.
Presidential emergency action documents emerged during the Eisenhower
administration as a set of plans to provide for continuity of government after a
Soviet nuclear attack. Over time, they were expanded to include proposed
responses to other types of emergencies. As described in one declassified
government memorandum, they are designed “to implement extraordinary
presidential authority in response to extraordinary situations.”

Other government documents have revealed some of the actions that older
presidential emergency action documents — those issued up through the 1970s
— purported to authorize. These include suspension of habeas corpus by the
president (not by Congress, as assigned in the Constitution), detention of United
States citizens who are suspected of being “subversives,” warrantless searches
and seizures and the imposition of martial law.
Some of these actions would seem unconstitutional, at least in the absence of
authorization by Congress. Past presidential emergency action documents,
however, have tested the line of how far presidents’ constitutional authority may
stretch in an emergency.
For example, a Department of Justice memorandum from the Lyndon B.
Johnson administration discusses a presidential emergency action document
that would impose censorship on news sent abroad. The memo notes that while
no “express statutory authority” exists for such a measure, “it can be argued
that these actions would be legal in the aftermath of a devastating nuclear
attack based on the president’s constitutional powers to preserve the national
security.” It then recommends that the president seek ratifying legislation from
Congress after issuing the orders.
Much less is known about the contents of more recent presidential emergency
action documents — but we do know they exist. They undergo periodic revision
to take into account new laws, conditions and concerns. The Department of
Justice reviews the proposed changes for legal soundness, the Federal
Emergency Management Agency plays a coordinating role and the National
Security Council provides policy direction and final approval.
Based on budgetary requests from the Department of Justice to Congress and
other documents, it appears that presidential emergency action documents
were revised in the late 1980s, in the 2000s and again starting in 2012 and
continuing into the Trump administration. The latest numbers available suggest
there are between 50 and 60 such documents in existence.
There is no question that presidential emergency action documents could be
used in a pandemic like that caused by the coronavirus. A 2006 Nuclear
Regulatory Commission memorandum addressed that agency’s plan under
President Bush’s 2005 “National Strategy for Pandemic Influenza.” The concern
was how to maintain operations in response to a pandemic that proved to be
“persistent, widespread, and prolonged.” The memo’s authors offered the
Nuclear Regulatory Commission 14 bullet points of actions, including to “review
presidential emergency action documents” and “select those most likely to be
needed” by the commission.
The most notable aspect of presidential emergency action documents might be
their extreme secrecy. It’s not uncommon for the government to classify its
plans or activities in the area of national security. However, even the most
sensitive military operations or intelligence activities must be reported to at
least some members of Congress. By contrast, we know of no evidence that the
executive branch has ever consulted with Congress — or even informed any of
its members — regarding the contents of presidential emergency action
documents.
That is a dangerous state of affairs. The coronavirus pandemic is fast becoming
the most serious crisis to face this country since World War II. And it is
happening under the watch of a president who has claimed that Article II of the
Constitution gives him “the right to do whatever I want.” It is not far-fetched to
think that we might see the deployment of these documents for the first time
and that they will assert presidential powers beyond those granted by Congress
or recognized by the courts as flowing from the Constitution.
Even in the most dire of emergencies, the president of the United States should
not be able to operate free from constitutional checks and balances. The
coronavirus crisis should serve as a wake-up call. Presidential emergency
action documents have managed to escape democratic oversight for nearly 70
years. Congress should move quickly to remedy that omission and assert its
authority to review these documents, before we all learn just how far this
administration believes the president’s powers reach.
Elizabeth Goitein is a co-director and Andrew Boyle is a lawyer at the Liberty and National Security
Program at the Brennan Center for Justice at New York University School of Law.

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The Coronavirus Is Showing Us Which

Entrepreneurs Matter
The owners of hair salons, bike shops and delis are stepping up to help their
communities, all while wondering if theyʼll make it.

By David Sax
Mr. Sax is a writer.

April 10, 2020

One sunny afternoon early in March, I hit the streets of my neighborhood,

visiting local businesses. I was hustling up donations for the silent auction fund-
raiser at my kids’ elementary school fair. Within the first two blocks, I had
already secured half a dozen prizes from business owners.
“We will definitely think of something cool,” said a woman that owned a tattoo
parlor. The elderly Portuguese ladies who run the tiny crochet shop lit up when
they told me how their grandchildren attended the school. The owner of a
Columbian takeout shop offered me 50 empanadas on the spot. A women’s
clothing designer handed me a $100 gift certificate, adding to those from the pet
store, nail salon, skateboard shop, record store, French restaurant and picture
framing place. The owner of a Taiwanese restaurant called Chop Chop promised
to come up with a donation that would be so outrageously tempting for parents,
it would turn our little silent auction into a full-fledged Christie’s bidding war.
If a business was owned and operated by entrepreneurs, whether they were
partners or individuals or families, they almost always offered their immediate
support. Those that were owned by bigger corporations or outside investors
almost never did. The entrepreneurs helped out because they are members of
our community. They live here. They know the residents. They walk by my
children’s school every morning.
That world seems lost now. Our school is closed, its playground locked. It is
unlikely that the school’s fair and auction will happen. But what worries me
most is the fate of the businesses that pledged their support, and the
entrepreneurs behind them. Many have already closed by order of the
government, which has deemed that all “nonessential” businesses will be shut
for the foreseeable future. Those that remain open, like the restaurants or coffee
shops offering takeout, are struggling to stay alive. Many won’t make it.

Even with the best intentioned and funded government grants, loans and aid
programs targeting entrepreneurs, the pandemic and its countermeasures will
force bankruptcy and closings on millions of businesses that cannot survive
more than a few weeks without customers.

The sad irony is that this is happening at a moment when, as a culture, we have
never been more obsessed with entrepreneurs. We have lionized them as daring
dreamers and heroes over the past decade, for driving innovations and
inventing the future. This is the bold, sexy entrepreneurship of Silicon Valley, led
by the holy trinity of Jobs, Musk, and Zuckerberg; the high stakes gamblers and
ruthless investors of “Shark Tank”; and the latest young Ivy League dropout to
launch a “disruptive” start-up and land a fawning profile on the cover of
business magazines, along with a few hundred million dollars in venture capital
funding.
But all the hype around Silicon Valley start-ups has obscured a more troubling
reality for entrepreneurs, because out in our communities, most entrepreneurs
have been struggling. Over the past 40 years, the number of Americans who are
self-employed and starting businesses has fallen by half. Look beyond the
incubators of San Francisco and away from the stages at tech expos, and
entrepreneurship has not been booming. Quite the opposite.
Many economists and policymakers believe that this is actually a sign of
progress. They argue that since most small businesses employ only a handful of
people, and that most of them are “lifestyle” businesses, without a desire to
innovate boldly or pursue exponential growth, a gradual decrease in their
numbers is positive news. The 99 percent of businesses that fall outside of
Silicon Valley’s definition of a start-up are effectively pointless, they argue, if not
utterly wasteful.
“The best way to boost productivity is to remove obstacles to the replacement of
small-scale, labor-intensive, technologically stagnant mom-and-pop firms with
dynamic, capital-intensive, technology-based businesses, which tend to be fewer
and bigger,” wrote Michael Lind and Robert Atkinson in their book, “Big Is
Beautiful: Debunking the Myth of Small Business.” “If government is to help
any small firms, it should focus on the start-ups that have the desire and
potential to get big, not on nurturing Ashley and Justin’s efforts to open a local
pizza shop.”

“The entrepreneurship that matters,” Scott Shane, a professor at the

Weatherhead School of Management at Case Western Reserve University,
stated in “Is Entrepreneurship Dead?,” “is not the broad swath of employer or
non-employer businesses but the high-potential start-ups that are backed by
sophisticated investors.” Creating more venture capital and angel-backed
companies, and fewer mom-and-pop retail shops, is ultimately positive, as “a
few extra Facebooks and Googles are probably worth a lot of clothing shops on
Main Street because they produce a lot more jobs and economic output.”
The thing that we tend to forget when we study entrepreneurs only as engines
of job creation, profits or other quantifiable markers of economic growth is that
every entrepreneur is a person, with hopes, dreams and feelings. Their
businesses are intricately tied into the fabric of their communities in a way that
numbers simply can’t capture.
In New Orleans, women in the Gentilly neighborhood now face losing a place
like Friends, a hair salon that cuts and styles the hair of middle-age,
professional African-American women, including the city’s mayor, LaToya
Cantrell. Its owner, a soft-spoken woman named Tanya Blunt-Haynes, described
Friends not as an investment or a source of income, but as a community center.
Her customers will linger for hours, long past when their treatments are
finished, catching up on neighborhood news with the staff or other customers,
ordering in crawfish platters, or just sitting in a chair, quietly reading a book.
Ms. Haynes plays soft jazz, gospel and R&B to create a relaxing mood. If
someone doesn’t have the money to pay her that day, or a relative needs help
with makeup for a wedding or funeral, Ms. Haynes will do the work for free, no
questions asked.
Several years back, when her son Jared was murdered, Ms. Haynes returned to
Friends, and was held by every single person who walked in the doors as she
cried in their arms. “That’s an amazing thing: the love of women,” she told me
two years ago, tearing up at the memory. “It’s not your grandmother, but it feels
like Grandma. It’s not your aunt, but it feels like your aunt. It’s not your sister,
but it feels like your sister.”
You see this same sense of community emerging in the entrepreneurs’ response
to the pandemic. Fashion designers are sewing desperately needed face masks,
craft distilleries are churning out hand sanitizer, restaurants are now donating
meals to the homeless and isolated senior citizens. Entrepreneurs see where
they can help their communities, and they step up.
Take my friend Andrew Badali, who usually teaches preschoolers music and is
now offering his singalong classes on Instagram every weekday morning, for
free, so that kids can get a dose of joy, and their parents can gain a precious hour
of freedom. My friends Mike and Jaime, who own a bike shop in Toronto, are
giving free tuneups to doctors, nurses and emergency medical workers so they
can safely get to work. In Los Angeles, my friend Alex Grossman is directing,
filming and editing commercials in his house (starring his family) for any small
business that needs a boost.
In some cases, the most heroic thing an entrepreneur can do is to carry on. At
New York’s Rockaway Beach Bakery, owner Tracy Obolsky still shows up each
morning, mixing and stretching dough, baking her famous ham, cheese and
everything bagel spice croissants (now takeout only), because her people need
something to eat and, more important, someone to talk with from a safe
distance. “I feel like people’s therapist,” she told me recently. “We are one of the
only normal moments left in people’s lives. Even if it is just an egg sandwich.”

But the entrepreneur I think about the most is Joel Tietolman, who owns the
Jewish delicatessen Mile End in Brooklyn. Even though Joel is desperately
trying to keep his business alive and his staff employed, offering takeout and
delivery, he is also spearheading a drive to provide free meals to hospital
workers around New York. Joel’s wife, Dr. Sally Bogoch, an E.R. doctor who
worked on the front lines at Maimonides Hospital until she was 38 weeks
pregnant, told him that the doctors, nurses, paramedics and others who are
facing the virus head-on would appreciate some matzo ball soup and a sandwich
almost as much as masks and gloves. So far, Joel has donated more than 300
meals to health care workers, and he plans to keep feeding hospital staff as long
as he can.
A lot of these entrepreneurs are still going to lose their businesses, and they will
have to deal with the financial and emotional trauma of that for years to come.
These are the entrepreneurs who matter now, more than ever. Not the ones on
the covers of magazines, not the billionaires and recipients of venture capital
checks, whose products we may use, but whose lives are distant and entirely
removed from the day-to-day of our communities. If Casper, WeWork or some
celebrity’s makeup company doesn’t survive this crisis, the impact on our lives
will be negligible. Elon Musk will be fine. But if we lose our barber, the fruit
store on the corner or the plumber who saved us in a flood, we will have lost a
piece of ourselves.
David Sax is the author of the forthcoming book, “The Soul of an Entrepreneur.”

The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. Weʼd like to hear what you
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 https://nyti.ms/3c6jgFx

‘We’re Going Down, Down, Down, Down, Down’

Staggering job losses are not a foregone conclusion. There is still time to fix the
federal governmentʼs aid program.

By The Editorial Board

The editorial board is a group of opinion journalists whose views are
informed by expertise, research, debate and certain longstanding values. It
is separate from the newsroom.

April 10, 2020

The federal government is struggling to deliver financial aid to faltering

employers — and workers are suffering the consequences. Roughly 10 percent
of American workers filed for unemployment benefits in the past three weeks, a
wave of job losses that has no precedent in modern American history. Millions
more are struggling to submit unemployment claims to overwhelmed state
agencies. And still more face the loss of their jobs in the coming weeks.
The scale of the economic damage is breathtaking. In one recent poll, more than
half of all Americans under the age of 45 said that they had lost their jobs or
suffered a loss of hours.
Some businesses may survive the crisis by shedding workers now, but they face
long-term costs, too: the loss of trained and experienced workers, the
uncertainties of hiring new ones.
The federal government was slow to react to the pandemic. Local officials began
ordering businesses to shut down weeks before Congress moved to provide
those businesses with the lifeline they so obviously needed. Timely action by
itself could have saved millions of jobs.

When Congress did act, it failed to grasp the magnitude of the crisis. The aid bill
passed at the end of March allocated $349 billion to support small businesses
despite warnings from experts that the government needed to provide two or
three times as much money to limit job losses. Already Congress is considering
$250 billion more in spending, which still is insufficient.

And on top of all that, the aid program is poorly designed. The Small Business
Administration, tapped to oversee the program, manages a loan portfolio of
about $120 billion in normal times. Unsurprisingly, the agency has been
overwhelmed by the expansion of its responsibilities. Congress also erred in
relying on banks to make the loans. Crisis lending requires a degree of
imprudence — the goal is to get money out the door. Banks, on the other hand,
are legally required to exercise caution. The result: Banks quickly started
imposing new conditions, such as refusing to deal with new customers, leaving
many businesses bewildered, frustrated — and unable to get the money they
desperately need.
It’s not too late for Congress to take a different approach to limit the damage.
What’s needed is a blank-check promise to provide the money necessary for
employers to pay workers.
European nations, including France, Germany and Britain, are fighting mass
unemployment by paying companies to hold on to their employees. The
government gives money to the companies, which give it to the workers; the
workers stay home and get paid.
Senator Josh Hawley, Republican of Missouri, has proposed an American
version. Under his plan, the government would pay up to 80 percent of payroll
costs for each employee up to the median wage — which the Social Security
Administration pegged at $32,828 in 2018.

Mr. Hawley’s whatever-it-takes plan recognizes the immensity of this crisis.

“It’s like, ʻWow, we’re going down, down, down, down, down.’ Nobody can see
the bottom,” he told The Washington Post. “I personally don’t care to find out
where the bottom might be!”
Crucially, the money would be distributed by a much larger arm of the
government, the Internal Revenue Service. (The program is technically
designed as a payroll tax rebate.)
The plan also would provide a bonus for rehiring workers laid off since the crisis
began.
And the same aid would be available to larger employers affected by the crisis,
too.
The most important shortcoming with Mr. Hawley’s program is that it’s still not
big enough. It would provide a maximum of about $500 per week per employee,
which is less than the $600 per week in extra unemployment benefits that
Congress authorized in March.
Representative Pramila Jayapal, Democrat of Washington, proposed on Friday
that the government pay 100 percent of weekly wages for workers making up to
$100,000. That’s overly generous. The payment is basically an unemployment
check with the added bonus that people will eventually return to the same jobs.
The government doesn’t need to carry workers making $100,000 at their full
salaries to get them through the crisis. But it shouldn’t be hard to find a sensible
middle ground between the two schemes.
There is clear value in preventing unemployment. The loss of a job is traumatic
and, in the United States, it often includes the loss of health insurance, too.
When the economy revives, both workers and employers will benefit from
resuming their former relationships.

American businesses and workers urgently need federal help: More, better
help.
The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. Weʼd like to hear what you
think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And hereʼs our email: letters@nytimes.com.

Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram.
Improving Digital Literacy
nation.com.pk/11-Apr-2020/improving-digital-literacy

April 10, 2020

The Higher Education Commission’s attempts to provide access to education

for students in areas beyond urban centres is a worthwhile effort. By
providing students education material through the radio or cell phones, the
state can potentially ensure that this unprecedented closures of schools and
universities is not a complete waste for students. It goes without saying that
educational departments of all provinces and the private sector are all
working to make similar efforts, although in the case of rural areas, the
problem becomes just a little more complicated.

Internet access is an immediate problem, one that the HEC and other
educational departments and institutions alike recognise, which is why radio
is being considered as an option. The Minister of Science and Technology
Fawad Chaudhry has also offered his ministry’s support in increasing
broadband and internet coverage across Pakistan. But in a population of an
estimated 202 million people, internet penetration only extends to 15-30
percent of the population, based on various estimates. Out of those that are
not online, some of them undoubtedly do not have access, but a vast number
currently also lacks the necessary skills and literacy needed to make
productive use of the internet.

And this is something that we have not been able to adequately address.
Equal attention must be given to improving access and provide the necessary
skills and literacy needed to ensure that this lockdown actually manages to
bring more of the populace online, and as a result make us collectively more
productive remotely. HEC and other bodies associated to the education
sector can develop tools for digital literacy, that can be provided through both
cell phones and radio – the tools identified by HEC and others – to deliver
information on digital literacy as well.

READ MORE: Pakistan to get rid of coronavirus pandemic soon: Fawad

No one is expecting our entire population to be completely digital as soon as
any of these measures are rolled out. But with the right strategy the
government, state institutions and the private sector can jointly use this
pandemic to our advantage in spheres of health, education and specifically,
digital literacy.
Building a post-coronavirus Welfare State
pakistantoday.com.pk/2020/04/10/building-post-coronavirus-welfare-state

By Dr Farid A Malik 10 April 2020

Luckily the government is elected

When the chips are down, state intervention becomes imminent. In the
current Coronavirus pandemic all eyes are focussed on the Prime Minister.
There are serious concerns about the post Coronavirus economy. My friend,
Dr Kamal Monnoo, the economist, has written in detail about what needs to
be done in an article in another newspaper last month. He has written about
the shattered myth of Anglo-Saxon business integrity where ‘force majeure’
has been invoked and agreements, contracts, orders have been conveniently
renegotiated. It is the most trumpeted but brutal capitalism at work. Kamal
has meticulously elaborated a 17-point solution to address the economic
fallout.

With every threat, there is an opportunity. Pakistan has had limited periods of
nation building under genuinely elected governments ( From 1947 to 1958
and 1971 to 1977). Since 5 July 1977 the downslide has continued unabated.
While the fabricated “political leadership” plundered the nation, the
establishment looked the other way. The stalled process of nation building
has to be started all over again based in inclusion, not exclusion, of masses.

Now that state resources are being sought for waivers and relief, past
mistakes should not be repeated. The focus should be on health, food
security and employment. Concentration of wealth in a few hands has to be
avoided at all costs. The Ayub Model of unbridled capitalism or the socialist
approach of Bhutto should not be repeated. Perhaps a democratic ‘Welfare
State’ is our best option to build the nation instead of creating empires and
fiefdoms. The PM has always been supportive of such a state, and now he
has an opportunity to create one as the government has to decide on the
utilization of state revenue.
The assets of the nation need to be turned around in the shortest possible
time. The State Owned Enterprises ( SOE ) like the Steel Mills and Machine
Tool Factory etc have been lying idle. Once these entities were profitable,
when managed by professionals and overseen by the Board of Industrial
Management (BIM). Professional Management and independent boards
should be assigned the task of reviving these entities which can then be
privatized at top value. Bureaucrats are neither trained nor qualified to run
these plants.

Focus should be on the masses not the classes. The PTI is a genuine political
outfit that enjoys grass root support unlike the fabricated leadership of the
past that was repeatedly imposed on the nation in the decades of the 1960s,
1980s and 1990s. The post-coronavirus period will be critical for the
economy which calls for careful and austere use of the nation’s resources.
After all old and tried approaches have failed to deliver, an Islamic Welfare
state seems to be our best option

Thousands of approved jobs are lying vacant which must be filled within 90
days. Railway workshops were once the pride of the nation. Refurbishing of
locomotives and fabrication of saloons and bogies was done in-house.
Through self-reliance we must learn to conserve foreign exchange and rely on
local expertise.

Imports have to be slashed and exports enhanced. The party for the kickback
mafias should be over. Our fuel and energy costs are too high, which need to
be renegotiated to end the menace of circular debt. Cost of imported LNG is
prohibitive. Now that coal mining has started at Thar we should adopt clean
coal technologies to meet our energy needs.

The strength of the Chinese economy stems from state control of resources
which are then spent on infrastructure development and facilities for the
people. The private sector is allowed to operate but in partnership to avoid
exploitation. In the Ayub Model the resources of the nation came under the
control of 22 families, which owned everything; industries, banks and
insurance companies. Loans were doled out to the favourites as free money
which has now accumulated over time. There has to be a moratorium on
national debt servicing together with write-offs.

In the 1970s basic industrialization was carried out in the public sector. Huge
investments were made in the Defence Production area around Islamabad
which remain under-utilised. Now POF Wah has been tasked to make
facemasks to fight the virus. It is time to apply and commercialize our
technologies to cut back the import bill. We can manufacture aircrafts and the
ptanks but have to import commercial products like bicycles, motorbikes and
rickshaws etc.

Dr Mahbub-ul Haq, the architect of the Ayub Economic Model, admitted that
the expected trickledown never took place. This time around the wheels of
development must turn for the entire nation, not just for a selected few.
Nation building should be the top priority of the government as was done in
the decades of the 1950s and 1970s. The boom that followed in the 1960s
and 1980s was a result of these efforts by the elected representatives of the
people.

In 1958 dictatorship detracked our march to glory. After 50 years an elected

government is in place led by a credible leader. Now that a fresh start has
been made at rebuilding the economy, I am sure past mistakes will be
avoided. Focus should be on the masses not the classes. The PTI is a
genuine political outfit that enjoys grass root support unlike the fabricated
leadership of the past that was repeatedly imposed on the nation in the
decades of the 1960s, 1980s and 1990s. The post-coronavirus period will be
critical for the economy which calls for careful and austere use of the nation’s
resources. After all old and tried approaches have failed to deliver, an Islamic
Welfare state seems to be our best option.
Let’s talk immorality and business
pakistantoday.com.pk/2020/04/10/lets-talk-immorality-business

By Sirajuddin Aziz 10 April 2020

Hoarding has long been a problem. But reflecting on right and wrong
might be needed to fight it

This piece will be naturally disappointing. For starters, if you came here
thinking this is the amoralist’s guide to the immoral business, it is not that;
quite the opposite in fact. Far from being a hack to figuring out the lucrative
business of immorality, this is going to be one of those principled articles
about doing the right thing.

Believe it or not, there are still people and businesses that believe in lofty
concepts like nobility, national identity and integrity. And for those that still
hold these concepts close, it is important to talk about what we mean by
immorality and business ethics. Because this isn’t about legality, but principle.

For starters, an immoral business is not merely one that is considered taboo.
Brothels and speakeasies are usually where our definitions of immoral
businesses begin and end. And while judging the morality of a business by
religious or social customs is a separate debate, in purely economic terms, an
immoral business is one with any negative motives, or one that harbours
people intending to knowingly or unknowingly harm society.

Hoarding, for example, is very obviously immoral. There are no two ways
about it. Yet hoarding is a casual enough practice, threatening more than ever
with a pandemic looming. And that is precisely the point of talking about
morality in business.

Hoarding as a concept is the accumulation of a commodity or produce, with

ill intentions, the hope that someday demand for it will outstrip supply, leaving
the hoarder with a vast repository to sell to the highest bidder.
The hoarder will justify this action to his own conscience by saying it makes
logical economic and business sense since price is driven by demand. What
could be immoral about that? After all, in a buyer’s market,the supplier is
entitled to ask for any price.

Governments, foolishly enough, and especially in the developing countries,

believe they control prices. And while official price lists are religiously
displayed in every shop, they are little more than a showpiece. Officials
deployed to monitor adherence to the price list easily end up as accomplices.
That leaves a situation where businesses can justify hoarding to their own
sensibilities and easily be able to do it because of slipping regulation
standards. So why wouldn’t they?.

This hoarding has more serious faces too. For example, if the product being
hoarded is medicine, particularly lifesaving drugs, then it is a question of
legality as much as it is of morality. When medicines are hoarded, that is
when immorality is at its zenith in society and business, and we have
unfortunately reached that unsettling milestone.

It takes two to tango, and immorality in any society is possible only through
abetment and partnership. An individual, per se, cannot be immoral in
isolation, but needs a partner in crime. And to our collective misfortune,
partners in crime are a dime a dozen.

The way hoarding becomes a duo job is that the manufacturers and
producers find themselves in cahoots. They first vitiate the production lines
and then the supply chain, to push prices upwards. All of this, of course,
happens off the books. And to make themselves feel better, these hoarders,
society and regulators refer to these actions as “cartelisation.” But that does
not change the fact that it is simply case hoarding.

Not only corporations depend on forming cartels. And of course, why would
this not happen on a small level when it is the way of the world? What is OPEC
after all? For all intents and purposes, it is a legal charter for the blatantly
immoral purpose of regulating the pumping of oil to ensure price stability
suiting producers. Simultaneously, they hold great power by being able to
cause havoc in world markets by cutting production.

Much like this global example, the construction industry’s cartelisation in our
country is well known. They operate under the wilfully ignorant eyes of the
regulators, and only occasionally slapped on the wrist.

This hoarding has more serious faces. For example, if the product being
hoarded is medicine, particularly life saving drugs, then it is a question of
legality as much as it is of morality. When medicines are hoarded, that is
when immorality is at its zenith in society and business, and we have
unfortunately reached that unsettling milestone.

A friend of mine is prone to panic attacks. The friend has been prescribed a
drug from the family of benzodiazepines, produced by a multinational. This
drug he mentions is perennially kept in short supply, due to undeclared
collaboration between distributors and pharmacies.

The objective is obvious, to keep low supply and charge sky high prices. The
official price printed is less than Rs 5000 for a box of three strips, but because
of the excellent relations, my friend enjoys with an unqualified, self styled,
pharmacist, he is able to get his medicines for a significantly lower PKR 3000-
3500. One can only imagine how hard battling something like mental illness is
without having to worry about exploitative drug prices.

One of the worst kinds of hoarding at the best of times is grains, vegetables,
and meats, and will be especially felt in the current scenario. Any gains from
this must be nauseating to a human with a live soul. But the fact that nobody
is throwing up, means, at least, the soul has taken a flight to its noble Origin
and End. No gains satiate hoarders. And if a plea to humanity does not work,
perhaps one citing God might just. I would remind the hoarder that it is with
deep anguish I have restrained myself from quoting the Quran and its many
injunctions on hoarding and hoarders.
Is it then moral for businesses to take future contracts for making profits, and
then to ask for relief for the losses, due to price movements? It is a cause of
anguish when a wrong business decision is compensated by taxpayers.

Even seemingly simple things like lawn clothes, there is an element of

hoarding for the in-print material. The most exquisite prints are either
reserved for the privileged at the stated price or are sold at skyrocketing
prices to those unconnected with the shopkeeper. Isn’t this also hoarding?
And thus immoral?

We, as a society, are possessed by the demon of greediness, and have lost
the tastefulness of life. Greed is a compound of all evils. In this time of
pandemic, some have made handsome profits by blackmarketing hoarded
sanitisers, tissue paper boxes, toilet rolls, masks, surgical gloves, etc.
Shockingly, I read that in the small city of Haiel, in Saudi Arabia, a shop was
raided and the authorities recovered 1.7 million masks. In a single shop! At
the same time, consumers have been no better, panic buying and hoarding far
more than they need. It seems there is no shortage of partners in crime, and
no realisation of the crime either.
COVID-19 and significance of good parenting
pakobserver.net/covid-19-and-significance-of-good-parenting

April 11, 2020

DR RAJKUMAR
SINGH

IN this health
emergency in the
backdrop of COVID-
19 pandemic most
schools, places of
public gathering, and
nonessential
businesses are
closed, and parents
and other caregivers
are faced with
helping their families
adjust to the new
normal. This includes trying to keep children occupied, feeling safe and
attempting to keep up with schoolwork as best as possible. Although none of
this easy, but it helps stay focused on what is possible in order to reinforce a
sense of control and to reassure children that they are okay and that the
situation will get better. In this situation it is important to remember that
children look to adults for guidance on how to react to stressful events.
Acknowledging some level of concern, without panicking, is appropriate and
can result in taking the necessary actions that reduce the risk of illness.
Teaching children positive preventive measures, talking with them about their
fears, and giving them a sense of some control over their risk of infection can
help reduce anxiety. This is also a tremendous opportunity for adults to model
for children problem-solving, flexibility, and compassion as we all work
through adjusting daily schedules, balancing work and other activities, getting
creative about how we spend time. Our discussion about COVID-19 can
increase or decrease your child’s fear. If true, remind our child that our family
is healthy and you we going to do everything within our power to keep loved
ones safe and well. Social distancing and stress management: It is the high
time for explaining the importance of social distancing to our children
because probably they don’t fully understand why parents/guardians aren’t
allowing them to be with friends. Tell our child that our family is following the
guidelines of the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), which
include social distancing. Social distancing means staying away from others
until the risk of contracting COVID-19 is under control. Showing older children
the “flatten the curve” charts will help them grasp the significance of social
distancing.Also let them know that while we don’t know how long it will take
to “flatten the curve” to reduce the number of those infected, we do know that
this is a critical time—we must follow the guidelines of health experts to do
our part. It’s a moment to focus on positivism and having more time to spend
as a family. Make it as fun as possible. Do family projects. Organize
belongings, create masterpieces. Establish and maintain a daily routine.
Keeping a regular schedule provides a sense of control, predictability, calm
and well-being. It also helps children and other family members respect
others’ need. The advice for children should also match their age-group and
early elementary school boys needto provide brief, simpleinformationthat
balancesCOVID19 facts with appropriate reassurances that adults are there
to help keep them healthy and to take care of them if they do get sick. For
upper elementary and early middle school children age group who is often
more vocal in asking questions about whether they indeed are safe and what
will happen if COVID-19 spreads in their area. They assistance in separating
reality from rumour and fantasy and discuss with them the efforts national,
state and community leaders are doing to prevent germs from spreading.
However in case of upper middle and high schoolissues can be discussedin
more depth. Referthemto appropriate sources of COVID19 facts. Provide
honest, accurate and factual information about the current status of COVID-
19. Engage them in decision-making about family plans, scheduling and
helping with chores at home Economic effects of the crisis: Right now
students are out of school in 185 countries. According to UNESCO, that’s
roughly 9 out of 10 schoolchildren worldwide. The world has never seen a
school shutdown on this scale. And not since Great Britain during World War
II has such a long-term, widespread emptying of classrooms come to a rich
country. In addition, there are economic factors for teenagers. Their parents
just lost their jobs and they’ve got younger siblings to take care of while their
parents are out trying to find work and trying to manage things. At this
developmental age teenagers are particularly at risk for leaving school as
adolescence is a period of rapid change and rapid development and so if
they’re experiencing adversity while they’re going through adolescence and
another period of change. In this phase there can be more resilient to a
disruption like this, as long as they are with their immediate family, who are
ideally the most important sources of support in their lives. But when it
comes to teenagers, the important people are more likely to be peers and
mentors. If those ties to those people are disrupted, that can really affect their
overall well-being. Need of the hour: Most children manage well with the
support of parents and other family members, even if showing signs of some
anxiety or concerns, such as difficulty sleeping or concentrating. Some
children, however, may have risk factors for more intense reactions, including
severe anxiety, depression and suicidal behaviours. Risk factors can include a
pre-existing mental health problem, prior traumatic experiences or abuse,
familyinstability, ortheloss of aloved one. Inthe circumstances parents and
caregivers should contact a professional if children exhibit significant
changes in behaviour or any of the following symptoms for more than 2
weeks. Preschoolers—thumb sucking, bedwetting, clinging to parents, sleep
disturbances, loss of appetite, fear of the dark, regression in behaviour and
withdrawal. Elementary school children—irritability, aggressiveness,
clinginess, nightmares, school avoidance, poor concentration and withdrawal
from activities and friends. Adolescents—sleeping and eating disturbances,
agitation, increase in conflicts, physical complaints, delinquent behaviour and
poor concentration. — The writer is Professor and Head, P G Department of
Political Science, Bihar, India.
Battle against COVID-19 and our roleinit!
pakobserver.net/battle-against-covid-19-and-our-roleinit

April 11, 2020

BRIG NASEEM AKHTAR KHAN (R)

THE plight of people all over the world,
while they are undergoing these tough
times due to coronavirus outbreak, is
quite understandable. Time is hard for
those who have been directly hit by
this pandemic, while is equally scary
for others, slowing down almostthe
completelife cycle, converting it to a single track precarious going. The
situation demands a very positive role from all of us, individually as well as
part of the society.Whilethe scientists, doctors, paramedical staff,
governments and law enforcement agencies are playing their role effectively,
we all need to think how we can contribute to these efforts while, we
ourselves, religiously follow the safety instructions issued by relevant
authorities. I think the best thing that everyone of us can do is to “stay
positive and help others to stay positive”. We all need to understand that life
sometimes becomes hard, but it really becomes more tough when our chips
are down and when we feel ourselves at the lowest ebb, it hits us the hardest.
It is, therefore, important that we take these hard moments as a part of life
and move on. How much we succeed in this, will largely depend on our ability
to persevere through the adversity without succumbing to the pressure. It is
time for all of us to stand up to the situation boldly. Self-motivation and
motivating others are the need of the day. Instead of looking for loopholes,
finding faults among each other and getting into blame games, we must start
looking for something positive that can give us a lift, raise our morale and
increase our resistanceto facethesetoughmomentswith carefully constructed
modus-operandi. Being an ex-army man, the situation reminds me of our days
as cadet in the military academy and how we were taught to face hard times
with courage,motivation andteam spirit. It will be interesting for many to know
that before each tough event that we were to go through during our training,
we used to sit together as platoon and carry out a brief appreciation of the
situation, conclude our strength and weakness and make a strategy to put up
a high standard of performance as a team. Depending onthetype of event, we
would identify the strong participants and pair them up with those who were
comparatively weak in that activity. The best example of such a teamwork
was always evident during marathon races, obstacle courses and battle
inoculation exercises with live firing all around our bodies. In all such like
training activities each weak participant are seen paired up with a tougher
guy, continuously gearing him up to keep going and at the end, closer to the
finishing point, rest of the platoon (that would reach the finish line much
earlier) standing on the sides of the track, shouting “10, 10, 10”,10 being the
best score for the race. Even the training staff would join in, to buck-up the
competitors. During these hard times, it is always best that we keep ourselves
busy and convert our frustration and fear into something positive. Apart from
our usual activities that we must continue under due
precautionarymeasures,we should get into voluntary help service to the
needy, irrespective of cast, creed, religion and nationality. In many places,
loneliness is another bigissue which normally goes unnoticed. There must be
many people who have not spoken to any human for weeks. They need to be
contacted and connected to others. We must remember that life isn’t always
bad. These seemingly unending days of fear, pressure and pain are
atemporary phenomenon, an insignificant period of our life that will be over
soon, Insha’Allah. Remaining positive is important to make the present
moment less difficult. If we believe that tomorrow will be better, we will sail
through the prevailing situation with less fear and frustration. At the end,
adding a few relevant quotes from people of vision, may help in making it
more purposeful and effective. “The difference between stumbling blocks and
steppingstones is how you use them.” Unknown “Every adversity, every failure
and every headache carry with it the seed of an equivalent or greater benefit.”
– Napoleon Hills “Tough never last, but tough people do.” – Robert H
Schuller.And to conclude, my friends, I sum up everything I have learned about
life and I want all others to remember, “Life goes on…” —The writer is Security
Management Professional.
Extension vs partial opening
pakobserver.net/extension-vs-partial-opening

April 11, 2020

THE ground situation is still quite

uncertain but a debate is raging
whether the existing {partial} lockdown
should be extended to consolidate
apparent gains or some sectors be
allowed to open as part of the efforts
to provide economic relief to the
people. Prime Minister Imran Khan,
who has already announced to open the construction sector from April 14 has
invited input from the provinces as to what sectors should be allowed to
resume their normal activities but Sindh Chief Minister Murad Ali Shah, while
opposing the proposition of gradual lifting of restriction at this point of time,
has made a strong recommendation to extend the lockdown for at least
another week. It is good that all issues are being discussed in a threadbare
manner and hopefully a consensus decision would be taken by the entire
country as absence of unity of actions would make the intended measures
less effective. Otherwise too, any decision taken by the Federation would lose
its significance if it is not endorsed by the provinces, which would actually
enforce the lockdown or plan for easing of restrictions. The situation is fluid
and the Parliamentary Committee on Coronavirus on Thursday said that the
next three or four weeks could become risky regarding the spread of
Coronavirus in Pakistan. Prime Minister Imran Khan too has issued warning
twice in two days regarding possible deterioration of the situation, seeking
cooperation of the masses to help address the challenge effectively. Federal
Minister for Aviation, Ghulam Sarwar Khan, during a television programme,
referred to a presentation given to the cabinet and said there are projections
that the number of affected people could increase to seventy thousand and
the number of deaths could touch the figure of seven hundred. There is also a
viewpoint that the existing numbers that have reached 4600 could have
increased if there was no lockdown. Sindh officials as well as Health Minister
of Punjab also agree that lockdown has had a salutary impact on the overall
situation. There are, of course, pluses and minuses of both extension of the
lockdown and easing of existing restrictions for some sectors. The
experience of the world bears testimony to the fact that there was no sure
short method to control the situation except total lockdown. We have also
seen that enormous increase in the number of affected people puts
unbearable pressure on the health system, which has virtually collapsed in
many countries and even developed and resourceful states find it difficult to
ensure proper healthcare for every affected person. Under these conditions,
any abrupt jump in numbers could lead to fall of the health system in the
country, which is presently coping with the situation to the best of its ability.
But there are also signs that doctors and medical staff too are becoming
weary of the situation especially in the absence of personal protective
equipment. This is evident from a report from Multan that as many as 453
pilgrims out of 1,160, who were sent to their respective districts on last
Saturday after being declared ‘negative’ for COVID-19, have tested positive
during later diagnosis only because refusal of police and health staff to work
inside quarantine allowed pilgrims to mix up. Restrictions imposed due to the
spread of Coronavirus have also caused economic problems for families and
partial resumption of activities by some sectors could offer opportunities to
people to earn their livelihood. No doubt, the Government has launched
largest ever cash disbursement programme in the history of the country to
offset impact of the situation on the poor but it is also understood that
payment of twelve thousand rupees for four months is just a peanut when a
20 kilogram wheat flour bag costs Rs. 1400 these days. However, safety of
lives should be the first priority and extension of lockdown for one week
would have more advantages than drawbacks. President Dr. Arif Alvi, who is
instrumental in efforts to motivate people to extend wholehearted
cooperation to the Government in handling the situation, has also made it
known that he was in favour of more stringent lockdown. Anyhow, if the
Government still opts for gradual opening of sectors, then this should be
accompanied by strict enforcement of precautionary and safety measures.
Indian provocation
pakobserver.net/indian-provocation

April 11, 2020

THE Pakistan Army Thursday shot

down an Indian quadcopter for
violating airspace along the Line of
Control (LoC). According to the Inter-
Services Public Relations (ISPR), the
quadcopter intruded 600 meters inside
Pakistan’s territory in Sankh Sector
along the LoC for reconnaissance and
was immediately shot down. The violation is reflective of true but sick mind of
India which loses no opportunity of harming security and interests of
Pakistan. The entire world is busy, these day, in the fight against the common
enemy i.e. Coronavirus but India tried to exploit the opportunity to spy on
Pakistan. Pakistan Army is also engaged in activities aimed at controlling the
situation arising out of the spread of the virus but its prompt and effective
response to Indian provocation is a clear message to the enemy that the
armed forces of the country are ever vigilant to any foreign threat. India
always received befitting response whenever it tried to manipulate any
particular situation to its favour but it seems New Delhi has not learnt the
lesson. The violation at this particular juncture is all the more condemnable
as any increase in tension on the LoC or working boundary would force the
two countries to divert more resources to address security concerns when
both of them need additional resources to tackle the Coronavirus. It is strange
that on the one hand India is portraying itself as sponsor of the move to
activate the platform of SAARC in the fight against Covid-19 but at the same
time it is indulging in acts that vitiate the atmosphere for any cooperative
engagement. As pointed out by Director General Major General Babar Iftikhar
such unwarranted acts by the Indian Army are a clear violation of established
norms, existing air agreement between the two countries and reflect Indian
Army’s consistent disregard for the Ceasefire Understanding of 2003.
Detestable views of compulsive critics of Pakistan
pakobserver.net/detestable-views-of-compulsive-critics-of-pakistan

April 11, 2020

MOHAMMAD JAMIL

ON 31 March, National
English daily carried Rob
ert Bennet Jones’ latest
anti-Pakistan article titled
‘Regional Politics’, which
is totally misleading and
vicious. The timing of
publishing the article is
intriguing, as at the
present nothing is being
talked about except the
Coronavirus pandemic,
and the nation and its
defence forces are
fighting against this torment. It is an effort to target the national security,the
government,the defence forces andthe people of Pakistan. It appears asif the
newspaperis collaborating with the hostile elements to target Pakistan at this
crucial time. Owen Bennett Jones is a freelance British journalist and former
BBC’s correspondent in many countries including Islamabad and a Professor
of Journalism at Princeton University. Jones has a long list of anti-Pakistan
and anti Pakistan Army articles to his credit. He has been showing keen
interest all these years in the affairs of the country. He is seen as pointing
fingers at Pakistan Army holding it responsible for most of the issues faced in
Pakistan. His agenda of bashing Pak Army is similar to agenda of people like
Hussain Haqqani and other so-called liberals who keep scolding Pakistan
defence forces all the time. Robert Bennet Jones is author of the book titled
‘Pakistan: Eye of the storm’ which was published in 2003. He started the book
with President Musharraf, and moved back to the 1999 coup, which installed
him. He then picks up some of the key issues which drive Pakistan’s Foreign
Policy: Kashmir, The Bomb, The Army, among others. Last year, he had written
a lengthy review of the book titled ‘Pakistan’s nuclear bomb: A story of
defiance, deterrence and deviance authored by HassanAbbas, in which he had
given some fictional account of Pakistan’s atomic program to malign
Pakistan. In his latest article, Robert Bennet Jones wrote: “For decades, the
State of Pakistan has been criticised for its alleged links with militant groups.
The Taliban and Haqqani Network in Afghanistan, Jaish-e-Mohammad in
Kashmir and Lashkar-e-Taiba in India have all been the subject of consistent
and widespread international complaint. If it wasn’t for the nuclear bomb and
the unfailing ability of deft Pakistani officials to confuse their foreign
counterparts, the country might well have been designated a state sponsor of
terrorism”. Referring to groups of critics’ concerns ofliberalsin Pakistan, he
also mentions about the second group of critics concerned about something
else. “The US, India, Iran and many in Afghanistan complain that the proxy
forces are sources of regional in stability that exacerbate Pakistan-
Indiatension and destabilise Afghanistan”, adding that “Pakistan has reached
the point that it no longer has plausible deniability so much as implausible
deniability”. Apart from the British journalist, American writers and authors
have also been targeting Pakistan and its institutions. Former Pakistan’s
Ambassador to the US, Hussain Haqqani in his book titled ‘Pakistan between
mosque and military’ had analysed and traced the origins of the relationships
between Islamist groups and military, thus disparaging Pakistan and its Army.
He conveniently forgot that the US was responsible in equal measure for
supporting jihadis in 1980s. One wonders how a crafty person with dubious
credentials could be made Ambassador to the most important country ie the
US.Anyhow he managed to reach the corridors of power. He was once Media
Advisor to Punjab CM Nawaz Sharif when Benazir Bhutto was Prime Minister
of Pakistan, and later joined Zardari camp and manoeuvred to get the coveted
position. Col (R) Lawrence Sellin, the author of ‘Restoring the Republic:
Arguments for a Second American Revolution’ published in 2013, has been
critical of US presidents, media and the ruling elite. But in his later articles, he
came out with sinister plans against Pakistan. He wrote: “Pakistan and Iran
fuel the insurgency in Afghanistan; Balochistan has strong presence of the
Taliban and serves as a support base for war in Afghanistan. Iran is also
fuelling Baloch insurgents and there are serious differences between Iran and
Pakistan. China will use CPEC to acquire strategic advantage. Completion of
CPEC will seriously hurt the US interests.” He suggested that the US must
stop focusing on Afghanistan’s insurgency and instead focus on measures to
separate Balochistan from Pakistan, which will eliminate Taliban’s safe haven.
He went on to write that Chinese regional hegemony as represented by the
China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and the related construction of
Chinese military bases on the Arabian Sea could be thwarted. This shows
how US hawks in military openly suggest policy options to destabilize other
countries and their allies to stir chaos.Another Pakistani writer,Ayesha Siddiqa
had written a book in which she was critical of military establishment. If one
goes through the articles and books written by her, it is not difficult to
conclude that she is ‘her’ master’s voice – the US. The question is that why
Pakistan is the target of hostile propaganda? The answer is that after the
Soviet troops were forced to withdraw from Afghanistan in 1980s, the US,
India and other Pakistan’s detractors were worried becauseit was beyond their
imagination what Pakistan’s premier agency had achieved.After appointment
of Lt General Faiz Hameed as chief of the ISI, she dwelt on the relationship
between him and COAS General Bajwa, and wrote: “When Qamar Bajwa had
taken over the command of the army, he brought his own man to headthe
‘C’wing of the ISI responsible for counterintelligence, which means a hand on
the political pulse of Pakistan and on the organisational pulse of its army.
Indeed, Hameed grew so powerful in that position that many viewed him as
the main man running the ISI and not Lt. General Naveed Mukhtar, who served
as the DG ISI from December 2016 to October 2018”. —The writer is a senior
journalist based in Lahore
Assessing Pakistan’s strategic preparedness
pakobserver.net/assessing-pakistans-strategic-preparedness

April 11, 2020

M WAQAS JAN

WITH numerous heads of

state gradually com ing to
terms with the realities of an
entire world under lockdown,
India’s new domicile laws for
the disputed territory of
Jammu and Kashmir mark a
return to business as usual
for India-Pakistan tension.
Particularly following
Pakistan’s official
condemnation of what has
been termed as the ‘Jammu
and Kashmir Reorganization
Order 2020’, the threats which this seven decades old dispute still pose to
regional peace and stability remain ever-present even amidst a prevailing
global pandemic. Especially considering how just a year ago, both countries
were brought dangerously close to the brink of total and perhaps even nuclear
war, it is worth highlighting how India’s sustained and single-minded approach
to altering status-quo across the LoC, by any means necessary, risks yet
another global catastrophe. The kind of catastrophe which may render
ongoing COVID-19 crisis as wholly insignificant compared to near irreversible
effects of a devastating nuclear war between both countries. These dangers
are clearly evident in how with even morethan a year having passed since the
Balakot air strikes, there has not yet been a clear acknowledgment of how
India’s new-found penchant for nuclear brinkmanship and reckless flirtation
with the escalation ladder has affected Pakistan’s strategic preparedness and
crisis decision making. For instance, Prime Minister Modi’s now infamous
reference to his planned qatal ki raat (Night of Murder)and Prime Minister
Khan’s purported warning of responding to any such provocation ‘three times
over’presented startling insights into how both countries’ politico-military
leaders envisioned the escalation ladder. Whereas, the above references are
reported to have alluded to ballistic missiles armed with conventional
payloads, the irreversible step towards a nuclear strike – be it a tactical
demonstration or a pre-emptive decapitation – remained unnervingly close.
The risks of which are likely to have then weighed heavily on decision makers
on both sides of the border. Considering how both sides’ missile delivery
systems are inherently designed for dual-use purposes, this commingling of
strategic and conventional assets presents a disquieting reaffirmation
oftheimmense difficulties faced when accurately ascertainingthe
other’sintentions and risk assessments with reference to a ‘mutually
acceptable’ escalation ladder. Whereas many analysts on both sides of the
border have evinced confidence that both India and Pakistan understand each
other’s strategic signals and postures, the deliberate change being brought
about within India’s strategic doctrine and military thinking is aimed at
radically altering this understanding. A development that is further adding to
the difficulty of ensuring deterrence stability within an increasingly complex
and technologically advanced world. This impact of commingling strategic
and conventional capabilities on critical decision-making and overall
situational awareness has been discussed at length in a recent report
released by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington D
C Titled ‘Under the Nuclear Shadow’ the nearly two year study is aimed at
assessing the impact of some of the latest ISR capabilities on the strategic
calculus and situational awareness of nuclear weapons states. It identifies a
broad range of developments which key policy makers in charge of today’s
nuclear arsenals need to take into account whilst recognizing ‘the complex
interplay between technology, escalation and decision making.’ Within this
framework, the risks of what the report identifies as ‘Entanglement’ or
decision makers’ inability to delineate between nuclear and conventional
risks, represents a highly significant potential pathway for escalation. The
simple truth that these risks were in full play during last year’s confrontation
between nuclear armed India and Pakistan throughout the post-Pulwama
environment has since been grossly underrated by Indian policymakers. In
fact, this has been evident throughout India’s search for a limited engagement
with Pakistan, just below its nuclear thresholds as enshrined in its now
institutionalized concepts of ‘Cold Start’and ‘Surgical Strikes’.As a result, the
onus has been placed solely on Pakistanto disentangle such risks. What’s
more, Pakistan has to now base its risk assessments of India’s intentions
mostly from the missions being conducted against it, as opposed to the fast
expanding, dual-use capabilities of the Indian military. These include India’s
Brahmos cruise missiles and its S-400 missile defence batteries both of
which can respectively deploy and detect both conventional and nuclear
assets.Thus, making it extremely difficult for Pakistani decision makers to
distinguish a potential conventional mission from a nuclear one. Taking into
account Pakistan’s self-avowed doctrine of Full Spectrum Deterrence, what
such provocations may and have probably already led to is a significantly
reduced nuclear threshold.While much has already been written on how
Pakistan’s Tactical Nuclear Weapons (TNWs) such as its Nasr missile
batteries have significantly reduced this threshold, a perhaps highly
understudied aspectis how India’s aggressive posturing and increasing
ambiguity with regards to its NFU (No First Use) policy has since played
psychologically on the minds of Pakistani strategists and decision makers. As
pointed out in the above referenced report, the prevalence of cognitive biases
in the form of confirmation bias and availability heuristics within an
increasingly complex nuclear environment in themselves present a dangerous
path towards escalation. Amidst the deliberate jingoism and incessant
allusions to nuclear war-fighting from key leaders within India’s national
security apparatus, there is a genuine risk that India’s institutionalized
brinkmanship -by wilfully bringing about first-strike instability – may lead to
all-out disaster under the reckless garb of calling Pakistan’s nuclear bluff.
This holds especially true when considering that the dominant discourse
surrounding an irrational Indian security junta, imbibed in the RSS’s
fanaticism, may be directly driving certain aspects of confirmation bias and
availability heuristics within Pakistani decision making circles.A factor that
has already perhaps multiplied exponentially since India’s decision to engage
in a cross-border air-strike against Pakistan just 14 months ago. Hence, with
the entire world reeling under an unseen pandemic that has already changed
day to day life as we know it, the risk of something even graver still loom large
when considering the precarious strategic balance in SouthAsia. Risks that
are all seriously worth re-considering as both countries simultaneously
attempt to secure the well-being and future of their respective populations as
part of a joint global effort. Ironically pointing towards yet another common
goal which both countries can find some common ground over to help de-
escalate such prevailing tension. — The writer is a Researcher at the Strategic
Vision Institute, a non-partisan think-tank based in Islamabad.
Partly Facetious: A scientific approach?
brecorder.com/2020/04/11/588446/partly-facetious-a-scientific-approach

By ANJUM IBRAHIM April 11, 2020

“The Khan administration, I will have ye all of little faith know, is assessing the
on-the-ground situation every day before tweaking if required its strategy on a
daily basis on how to deal with the Coronavirus…"

“It's a very scientific approach…"

“Indeed, and I for the life of me cannot understand why you are laughing."

“The Khan has very limited knowledge about science in general and like the
rest of the world leaders Coronavirus in particular but look at the bright side
like his US and UK counterparts…"

“Two things, first The Khan may not have a scientific bone in his body but as
the captain of the cricket team he constantly evaluated the strength and
weaknesses of his own team members as well as those of his opponents and
that is standing him in good stead today. And second Trump and Johnson not
good examples my friend – one is forcing quinine or anti-malarial tablets
down the throat of the medical providers without any proof and the other is ill
in hospital with the disease, so much for following the social distancing
approach he supports. Besides both men have been unable to check the
spread of the virus in their own countries…and will you stop laughing…"

“I just want to point out that a Chinese doctor has cautioned the government
in basing its policy on an assessment that is flawed because of the very small
percentage being tested in the country and those countries that have been
successful in containing the virus have actually tested large segments of their
public and as new epicenters emerge placed them under an immediate lock
down. Second, the young may have a higher survival rate but in Pakistan the
ratio of deaths to those small numbers tested is 7 to 8 percentage points
higher than the average in even Italy and Spain and…"
“Did you hear the nursery rhyme of Humpty Dumpty had a great fall and all the
King's men couldn't put him back together…"

“I don't get you! Who are you referring to as Humpty Dumpty! There is no one,
but no one, in The Khan's rather large cabinet who is as fat as HP, and more to
the point as fragile as HP…"

“Right, with the outing of Batman and his Batmobile…"

“I guess outing is defined as out of favour but I tell you just cause Jehangir
Tareen is out of favour does not mean he has no capacity to reemerge as a
political force…"

“There I agree, and I would advise The Khan to resist what Nawaz Sharif,
Zardari sahib and the two great assassinated leaders of the PPP, and all those
who lost their position as the country's chief executive including Musharraf
could not resist: sycophancy and the perception that they are in this position
for life."

“Good advice."

Copyright Business Recorder, 2020

Cartelisation in developing countries
brecorder.com/2020/04/11/588486/cartelisation-in-developing-countries

By FARHAT ALI April 11, 2020

Formation of cartels is a global phenomenon and Pakistan is no exception. By

definition it is defined as:

“A cartel is a collection of independent businesses or organizations that

collude in order to manipulate the price of a product or service. Cartels are
competitors in the same industry and seek to reduce that competition by
controlling the price in agreement with one another. Tactics used by cartels
include reduction of supply, price-fixing, collusive bidding, and market carving.
In the majority of regions, cartels are considered illegal and promoters of anti-
competitive practices. The actions of cartels hurt consumers primarily
through increased prices and lack of transparency."

Cartelisation is illegal in most of the OECD countries. In the US, also cartels
are illegal and defaulters are proceeded against under strict anti-trust laws.
The laws are also applicable on companies of foreign origins registered with
the US stock exchange and their Security Exchange Commission. The anti-
trust laws are equally applicable in all corners of the world. Many European
companies have been heavily fined for overseas default, mostly in Africa and
Asia.

In developed countries, cartelisation was once a routine way of business

where mostly the emerging markets were exploited – often in collusion with
bureaucratic and political cadre of the country. As a trade-off, safe havens
were facilitated for them to park their ill-gotten money.

With strict enforcement of anti-trust laws and imposition of heavy penalties in

the last two decades, the practice of cartelisation is by and large over in these
countries.
Cartelisation mostly affects the lower segments of society as high costs in
development projects suck social development funds, pushing more people
below poverty lines.

Cartelisation continues to be the way of business in Pakistan and it is a

country where it flourished unchecked.

The following are main reasons:

– The fraternity of cartelisation comprises business leaders, political

leadership and other vested interests as facilitators.

– No government has ever made efforts to put in place meaningful laws and
its effective enforcement to check and penalize cartels.

– The regulators of the country such as Competition Commission of Pakistan

(CCoP), National Electricity Regulator Authority (Nepra), Oil & Gas Regulatory
Authority (Ogra) and others are rendered ineffective by design.

The importance of regulators in the eyes of political leadership can be judged

from the fact that the previous government placed Nepra and Ogra under the
domains of the respective ministries, forfeiting their independence and
autonomy.

Cartels in Pakistan are quite effective in all segments and commodities.

The ones that mostly affect the lower segments of population are sugar and
wheat producers as these two commodities are the ones on which the poor
survive.

Lately, the massive unrest in public on account of 10 to 26 percent increase in

prices of wheat flour and sugar and its subsequent hoarding prompted the
incumbent government to conduct an enquiry. All eyes are now on the final
outcome and enforcement of a detailed report expected to be published on
25 April 2020.
In infrastructure projects and industry, there is an alleged cartelisation in IPPs,
cement, steel, textile and other sectors.

From record, it has come to light that in 2009, CCP imposed a penalty of Rs
6.5 billion on 20 cement manufacturers including some top companies owned
by influential groups involved in cartelisation for earning windfall profits.

Sugar producers have the distinction of being provided rebates on exports

and subsidies to provide sugar to public at an affordable price.

For a long time, the textile industry enjoyed unchecked duty drawbacks on
exports which has lately been withdrawn.

By their very nature, incentives like duty drawbacks and subsidies are
instruments of use of discretion placed in the hands of government and
political functionaries, favoritism, misuse, corruption and political
compromises – all in favour of a well-knit fraternity of elites and at the
expense of public interest which suffers as being the last in line of the supply
chain.

Consistent poor governance and compromised role of regulators have

created a highly conducive environment for the growth of cartels. In other
words, the incidence of cartelisation faces no challenge in the country.

The wheat and sugar price and hoarding crises in Pakistan have generated
public and media debates with voices underscoring the need for doing away
with incentives to this favoured industry and subjecting them to the regime of
free market practices.

As the effluent countries moved to free domestic market and trade

globalization, the regime of selective incentives and subsidies has been
abandoned except in very few selective cases in the larger public interest.

In mature markets, prices declined and quality improved in due course of time
when commodities were forced to compete in open market. The prices of
commodities, electricity and telecommunication have considerably come
down and quality of products and services improved in these markets.

This was however made possible with introduction of powerful regulators and
enforcement of regulations to keep a close tab on the trend of monopoly and
price fixing, which is equally bad.

Reportedly, the prices of wheat and sugar are cheaper in the international
market as compared to those in Pakistan – hence the recent grant of export
incentive to sugar exporters to enable them to compete in global markets.

In case Pakistan opts to withdraw all incentives to sugar, wheat and similar
commodities then it has to put in place a strong regulatory and enforcement
regime.

The main issue is the affordable price level. Either price is fixed by the
government based on open book policy to be audited by pre-qualified
independent external auditors or open imports of commodities to subject the
local producers to open competition.

In either case, the alternate to subsidies will eventually turn out to be a better
option in favour of the public.

The remaining issue is the sustainability of a subsidy-free regime which may

fail to hold ground in the tenures of future governments in view of political
expediency and greed of vested interests.

(The writer is former President of Overseas Investors Chambers of Commerce

and Industry)

Copyright Business Recorder, 2020

After reports on sugar and wheat crises
brecorder.com/2020/04/11/588484/after-reports-on-sugar-and-wheat-crises

By RECORDER REPORT April 11, 2020

Prime Minister Imran Khan deserves all the praise for making good on his
promise to release two FIA investigation reports he had ordered on the recent
sugar and wheat shortages that led to sudden hikes in the price of these
essential items of daily use. In a series of tweets on Sunday, he rightly
claimed credit for the immediate release of reports “without
alteration/tampering", something “unprecedented in Pak's history." Indeed so,
especial in view of the fact that the report on sugar implicates important PTI
figures and allies in taking huge subsidies on sugar export, causing shortages
in the domestic market and subsequently price push. Predictably, the
opposition PML-N, facing a raft of alleged corruption cases, saw it as an
opportunity to get back at the government. At a hurriedly press conference,
PML-N leaders urged the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) to act against
those members of the ruling party who were allowed to export sugar whilst its
output, according to them, was just enough to meet domestic needs. The
practice though was quite common under the previous Nawaz League
government.

The reports have also exposed chinks in the ruling party with some blaming
PM's close confidante, Jahangir Tareen – one of the principal beneficiaries of
subsidised sugar export – of manipulation and he accusing PM's principal
secretary of being behind besmirching of his name. However, prima facie,
nothing illegal was done. As Federal Minister for Planning and Development
Asad Umar explained in a TV programme, the ECC had given the go-ahead to
export of surplus sugar, though, without subsidy. Yet the Punjab government
decided to subsidise exports and Sindh chose not to follow suit. As per the
18th Amendment, both were within their rights to make their respective
decisions independent of the ECC. Pending further investigations, it is
premature just yet for anyone to make a judgement on the issue, which
seems to be more of a political rather than legal nature. Prominent figures in
almost all political parties are known to own sugar mills, and hence acting as
a cartel to protect their common interest.

The PM reshuffled his cabinet, a notable change being in the portfolio of

Minister for National Food Security Khusro Bakhtiar. One of his close
relatives, according to inquiry reports, had “gained benefits in terms of
subsidy in export of sugar increasing its price." In related developments,
National Food Security Secretary has been replaced. Punjab Food Minister
has resigned, and two senior bureaucrats have been made OSD. Also,
according to Punjab government spokesman, Tareen has been removed as
Chairman of the Task Force on Agriculture “in light of findings of sugar and
wheat inquiry report." Tareen though took to social media to offer the
clarification that he was never chairman of any task force, challenging people
to show him notification of his appointment to that position. He may not have
formally held that position, but he was seen participating in various high-level
official meetings pertaining to agriculture and other matters. That may be
about to change. In one of his tweets, Imran Khan said that before taking
action he would await the detailed forensic report by a high powered
commission to be presented on April 25, adding “In Sha Allah, after these
reports come out no powerful lobby would be able to profiteer at the expense
of our public." That report may or may not incriminate those named in the two
FIA reports. Still, he will need to take effective steps to prevent politically
powerful lobbies from creating distortions in price mechanism.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2020

New domicile rules for occupied J&K
brecorder.com/2020/04/11/588485/new-domicile-rules-for-occupied-jk

By RECORDER REPORT April 11, 2020

Eight months after scrapping the special status of occupied Jammu and
Kashmir, India's ultra Hindu nationalist government has taken a vital step
towards the fulfilment of its real agenda for the disputed region. A notification
issued recently has changed domicile rules aimed at making drastic alteration
in the demographic composition of the disputed region. As per the new rules,
anyone who has resided in occupied J&K for 15 years, or has been student for
seven years and appeared in class 10 and 12 examinations in an educational
institution in the state qualifies to be considered J&K domiciled person.
Anyone who is registered as a migrant by the Relief and Rehabilitation
Commissioner (migrants) would be similarly entitled. Also domiciled
Kashmiris would be children of those central government officials, all India
services, statutory bodies, public sector banks, central universities and
research institutions of central government “who have served in Jammu and
Kashmir for a total period of 10 years, or children of parents who fulfil any of
the conditions in other sections." Doors thus have been swung wide open for
Hindus from all over India to come and settle down in the occupied J&K and
turn its Muslim majority into minority.

Previously, non-natives did not enjoy some rights reserved for the local
people. They could not own land or hold state government jobs. Even
Kashmiri women, who married outsiders, were barred, along with their
children, from buying property in the state. However, these restrictions have
not been peculiar to J&K. In Himachal Pradesh, Nagaland and Telangana, too,
people from the rest of the country cannot buy land. Their domicile laws
protect land rights. New rules for occupied J&K have been devised with an
ulterior motive. They have promptly drawn criticism from Kashmiri leaders
lucky enough to have access to social media, whilst the region remains
locked down for the last eight months. Taking to Twitter, former chief minister
Omar Abdullah described the move as “an insult being heaped on injury",
adding that the law offers none of the protections that had been promised.
The protections he alluded to were assurances home minister Amit Shah had
given some people last month, saying the centre did not intend to carry out
demographic changes in the region. But the BJP leaders have been lying
about their designs for J&K at every step of the way from repeal of Article 370
to new domicile rules that deprive the Kashmiri people of the rights and
privileges they had enjoyed for generations.

CPI leader M.Y. Tarigami seemed to capture the essence of moment when he
said the new law has increased fears among the locals of losing not only jobs
but also land to outsiders; and that “after sometime the majority of posts will
be held by non-locals. A 15-year and 10-year cap is primary mean for children
of security personnel and other central government. After five years, they will
settle them here." Surely, the besieged Kashmiri people are not going to
accept such transformation of their land. It is a matter of not if but when will
they react.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2020

Keeping up with the joneses
dailytimes.com.pk/593147/keeping-up-with-the-joneses

April 10, 2020

Owen Bennett-Jones, who has been reporting for BBC for over three decades
and is the author of the renowned non-fiction book, Pakistan: Eye of the
Storm, published by Yale University Press, continues to write on Pakistan. His
fiction thriller Target Britain is also based on Pakistani origin terrorists. Owen
has spent time as BBC’s foreign correspondent in Bucharest, Geneva,
Islamabad, Hanoi and Beirut but he remains enamoured with Pakistan. His
award-winning podcast The Assassination based on investigation into the
death of Pakistan’s former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, which includes
interviews with those accused of her murder won him accolades.

Apparently, Pakistan’s traditional hospitality did not rub off on Owen as he

continues to display an anti-Pakistan bias. His opinion pieces appear in
Pakistan’s leading daily Dawn. His latest Op-Ed titled ‘Regional Politics’ which
appeared on 31 March, is attempted to be an exposé on Pakistan’s alleged
links with militant groups. Numerous western writers, analysts and
columnists regularly bash Pakistan following the proverb “Give a dog a bad
name and hang him”, since the theme sells.

In his article ‘Regional Politics’ the erudite writer opines that the Taliban and
Haqqani Network in Afghanistan, Jaish-e-Mohammad in Kashmir and
Lashkar-e-Taiba in India have all been the subject of consistent and
widespread international complaint. He laments that if it wasn’t for the
nuclear bomb and the unfailing ability of deft Pakistani officials to confuse
their foreign counterparts, the country might well have been designated a
state sponsor of terrorism.

Pakistan may have toyed with the idea of indulging in a proxy war against India
as a tit for tat solution but since it is itself bearing the brunt of terror attacks, it
would not deem it befitting to play with fire

Naming Pakistan’s deep state’s alleged proxies, he categorizes them into two
groups. First Pakistani liberals who according to him, have long worried about
the impact of the militants on Pakistan itself. Labelling the TTP as the army’s
asset, Owen believes they morphed into a heavy liability.

The learned scholar reports that the US, India, Iran and many in Afghanistan
complain that Pakistan’s proxy forces are sources of regional instability that
exacerbate Pakistan-India tensions and destabilise Afghanistan. He
stigmatizes Pakistan that it is in a state of denial regarding state sponsorship
of terrorist. Owen reaches to the harsh conclusion that Pakistan no longer has
plausible deniability so much as implausible deniability. He infers that military
strategists in Rawalpindi might think this is no bad thing: owning militants
shows that the land of the pure is also a land capable of projecting power. But
it has also led to difficulties, not least in the on-off supply of American military
supplies.

Pertinently, Owen Bennet-Jones raises the question “why shouldn’t Pakistan

have proxy forces?” he provides the response himself, stating “After all, with
the exception of Greenland and a few other defenceless minnows, it’s
common practice for states to finance and equip militant groups that fight
abroad.”

The author provides the example of Iran rationalizing that having suffered
years of severe sanctions designed to make the country weaker, in terms of
regional power politics, is currently in the strongest position it has enjoyed for
decades. He enumerates Hezbollah in Iran, the Shia militias in Iraq and the
Houthis in Yemen, which according to Owen, have enabled Iran not only to
defend itself from attack but also put its rivals on the back foot. He concludes
that the exercise has been effective for Iran.

Mr. Bennet-Jones infers that Iran has taken a leaf out of the book of USA and
the former Soviet Union during the cold war era, when they avoided direct
confrontation by getting proxy rebel movements to overthrow what were
effectively proxy governments.

This scribe begs to differ with Mr. Jones’ view of Pakistan’s alleged support of
militants to launch proxy wars in India, to weaken it or loosen its stranglehold
on Kashmir; notwithstanding Pakistan supports the freedom movement in
Kashmir morally as well as diplomatically. Hindsight is 20/20. Mr. Jones must
have read Elias Davidsson’s The Betrayal of India: Revisiting the 26/11
Evidence, which is a detailed exposé of the Mumbai Attacks being an inside
job and a false flag operation. I hope Mr. Own Bennet-Jones has taken time
out to browse through this scribe’s book Rising Hindutva and its Impact on
the Region, in which various false flag operations choregraphed by India have
been discussed in detail.

True that like many western countries, Pakistan maintains contact with the
Taliban but not to the extent of arming them or launching them for terror
operations. India on the other hand was caught with its hand in the till with
the arrest of its leading RAW operative, Commander Kulbhoshan Jadhav, who
spilled the beans on India’s heinous agenda to destabilize Pakistan, sabotage
the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and wreak havoc in urban
locations in Pakistan.

Pakistan may have toyed with the idea of indulging in a proxy war against
India as a tit for tat solution but since it is itself bearing the brunt of terror
attacks, it would not deem it befitting to play with fire. Keeping up with the
joneses practice of clandestinely supporting militants is not Pakistan’s cup of
tea.
The writer is a retired Group Captain of PAF. He is a columnist, analyst and TV
talk show host, who has authored six books on current affairs, including three
on China
The Advisor Conundrum
dailytimes.com.pk/593172/the-advisor-conundrum-daily-times

April 10, 2020

Entrusted by US President Lincoln in 1864 to fight the war against the

Confederacy in the American Civil War General Ulysses S. Grant led the US
armies to victory over in 1865. Almost all his core staff were civilians who
were volunteers for the Army during the war. At the age 46, he was elected as
the 18th President of the United States in 1869, the youngest in US history
until that time. Although highly scrupulous himself his administration was
tainted with scandal. Considered by Grant as the most indispensable man he
had around him, Grant’s longtime confidante, Gen Rawlins, who functioned as
his Chief of Staff unfortunately died after only five months of service suffering
from tuberculosis.

Thereafter Gen Grant’s misfortune was that many of his close advisers let him
down badly. Appointed Secretary to the US President in Rawlins place, Orville
Babcock became embroiled in corruption charges and was accused of
manipulation of both cabinet departments and appointments. Out of loyalty to
their shared battlefield experience Grant shielded Babcock from all political
attacks. Indicted as a member of the “Whiskey Ring” in 1875 he was
protected by Grant providing a written deposition on his behalf resulting in
Babcock’s acquittal. However many other scandals resulted in Babcock
leaving the White House under pressure from Secretary of State Hamilton
Fish who conceivably was one of Grant’s finest Cabinet officers.

An adviser having even an iota of personal motivation or his own interest will
bring about disastrous consequences for those governing in any capacity

Unfortunately President Grant’s choice of cabinet members, staff and

advisers were notably mostly “hit and miss”. Scrupulously honest himself Gen
Grant was not a good judge of character, he had a penchant for appointing the
wrong people, and then being too loyal to those who proved dishonest and
opportunistic. His administration’s scandals rocked both of his presidential
terms. Well-intentioned but shortsighted he listened now to one faction and
then to another among the generals, cabinet members, state politicians and
advisers. Historian Henry Waltmann argued that the Grant’s political naïveté
undercut his effectiveness. Does he remind you of someone we know and
love for his honesty and sincerity?

Closest advisers who are neither honest nor efficient usually have their own
agenda. This includes power, some desire revenge, some hunger for control
while others conspire to oust a leader they are either jealous of or deem unfit
for duty. Many leaders met tragic ends at the hands of their advisers. With a
naive and pious King Henry VI of England not interested in politics or state
affairs, a small group of advisers who included his close relatives took full
control of the country by declaring him unfit to rule.

A look at the history of advisers, good and bad, is quite fascinating. Some
famous advisers who were successful in helping their leaders achieve their
aims, viz (1) Chanakhya was a master strategist and a shrewd politician who
helped Chandragupta of the Maurya dynasty run his empire. His book
“Arthashastra” is considered as the holy grail of Hindu politics and diplomacy
(2) the Hindu adviser to Mughal Emperor Akbar, Birbal’s, wisdom was
unparalleled, he was known for his wit and innovative solutions to many
problems faced (3) As the Prime Minister to Wilhelm I of Prussia, and later the
German Empire, Otto von Bismarck was instrumental in the unification of
various German principalities into the German Empire and building its world-
renowned bureaucracy and army. (4) Yelü Chucai was a trusted adviser to
Genghis Khan who once ruled most of the known world. Chucai convinced the
Mongols to tax conquered cities instead of destroying them as per usual
practice, arguing that the money and manpower gained from the cities could
fund future conquests. A common feature to good advisers is their loyalty to
their sovereign, instead of being “prima donnas” their approach is ususally
low-key and behind the scenes.

However some of these rascals become indispensable to their leader if not

the country. Asif Zardari’s principal adviser on most matters, Salman Faruqui,
was an out and out crook, however having deep knowledge of running of the
affairs of the State and the senior DMG bureaucrats he was indispensable for
Zardari. With his knowledge of which bureaucrat was honest and who was
not, guess which bureaucrats went to the lucrative Ministries where money
could be made? On the other hand he also had “horses for courses”, putting
to work a bunch of excellent individuals in key slots to provide good
governance. Corruption cannot go keep on co-existing with good governance,
in the end the Zardari govt failed. While Nawaz Sharif used the same formula,
Shahbaz Sharif perfected it in the Punjab. In the end both came to political
grief because of massive and unbridled corruption in which their bureaucratic
lackeys were full participants.

One of the central problems of Imran Khan’s government is the quality and
commitment of his range of advisers, not only for day-to-day politics but for
both aside short and long-term decision-making process. The PM has been
more than once given the perception of making off-the-cuff decisions in his
pronouncements in his speeches and interviews. Even good advisers do not
matter until there is a due process for diligence and analysis to not only sort
out facts from fiction but separate emotions from reality.

Some of his advisers, political and otherwise, are certainly dyed-in-the-wool

professionals, however some in his inner circle are lightweights. No head of
any government in the world can rule only according to his/her own
knowledge and experience. Governing is a team work and while a politician
may be quite educated and well-informed, he like most individuals lack
detailed knowledge in specialized fields. Even more than specialized
knowledge and a good gut feeling the main basis for efficient cooperation
between politician and adviser is sincerity of intentions and honesty of both
coupled with their trust in each other. Such a relationship has to grow and be
nurtured. Such a mentor or guide is typically part and parcel of the leadership
inner circle, having specific skills and knowledge and the ability to impart
sound and sane advice. With specialisation and innovation advisers are now
an integral part of businesses, financial institutions, educational institutions,
legal firms, insurance houses, govts, etc. They are also part of the decision-
making processes of various Ministries.

For the Prime Minister (PM), the President or whoever at that hierarchical
ruling level needs to make sound decisions, information must be synthesized
rapidly and a comprehensive understanding and analysis thereof developed
the leader must therefore have a set of options to act upon. One idea may be
to have an informal “National Security Council” (NSC) on the US pattern but
tailored for Pakistan with no executive powers. He has chosen Moeed Yusuf
for the role, he is good but his abilities have been overwhelmed by the
demands on his time. Chosen with the great care and diligence, this brain
trust’s driving motivation must be the country’s interest first and foremost,
and thereafter the interest of their leader, and in that order. An adviser having
even an iota of personal motivation or his own interest will bring about
disastrous consequences for those governing in any capacity.

Advisors of exceptional stature and competence cannot be found through

tenders, they have to be companions in the political fight. Big egos are usually
rather a hindrance than an asset in the search for good advisers. And while
the search might take some time it makes sense to communicate within the
inner circle openly and completely without personal gain in mind.
Leader of consequence need an adviser or advisers to take sane council from,
particularly in times of distress. Individuals and/or groups can expert major
influences without being the actual leaders but if they look towards their
personal interests, and not of their leader, they can cause havoc. Benefitting
not only from thoroughly vetted and stress-tested honest and objective
perspectives, a leader can than make good decisions, for the country and for
himself.

The writer is a defence and security analyst

New world order in re-making!
dailytimes.com.pk/593187/new-world-order-in-re-making

April 10, 2020

Managing the known was a general phenomenon and practicing field for the
creatures of 21st century. Although, the past has always provided precedent
of transitional and evolutionary transformational mechanism that sheds
significance at two extremes either the success or failure. The futuristic
approach and one’s smooth convergence to new normal and behavior is
referred as success and those who stay bare-footed to catch-up with the
evolutionary phases experienced failure at their fate. Indeed, success is the
combination of preparation and luck which simultaneously bounced back the
mental block there is but one rule hunt or be-hunted.

With the advent of insidious COVID 19 the planet, earth is temporarily shut for
holistic maintenance and re-making. Moreover, human civilization requires
inventing a new understanding of what it exactly means to be human. There is
cooking of new diplomatic order with emergence of new recipe to support the
new kind of political philosophy that ensures sustainability during the
pandemic and assurance of rebuilding after it passes. The need of time is to
build new global public health care systems that can reduce the risk of
another pandemic and help save the human life. As soon as human species
get adaptable to new taste buds there will be on pathway for defining a new
phenomenon and philosophy of what it means to be human. The similar
approach is adopted in aftermath of World War II in the wake of massive
deaths, social disarray and economic collapse.

In the present world its Coronavirus whereas in the 12th Century was the
Bronze Age collapse. Lessons from the past, indeed 3000 years back can help
the residents of planet earth explore how to make through the end of world.
At the peak of the Bronze Age, there was development of extremely complex
and centralized civilizations across the Eastern Mediterranean and Aegean.
However, in just a span of 100 years there was hit by one another calamities
and it took very long before the region engine started moving pace with
advent of knowledge and power of writing. It was followed by series of
disasters, which includes a widespread drought in the Mediterranean basin,
and the unknown arrival of mysterious sea people. The Bronze Age societies
were highly complexed and centralized where the kings or either the
bureaucrats decide when, where and how to plant stuff. That was the main
point that triggered me so much about our modern day society, which is
repeating the same mistake of clashing with laws of nature.

In order to conclude, the new world order in remaking will definitely tame,
train and facilitate the human civilization accordingly with some of the new
features that were initially disproved but now form the new normal

Indeed, the mere reality survival of the fittest is coherently dependent on

governing authorities and their reforms, governance, structure and policies
working in the semi-perfect environment with the gazillion other exogenous
factors to ensure the sustainability of global populace. Nevertheless, if this
system is on the spinning wheel of disruption and took multiple roller coaster
rides over a long period at diverse horizon it will ultimately result in collapse.

It is safe to consider ourselves living in the Silicon Age collapse. The

microchips the essential ingredient of Silicon age is so far unable to save the
global from this pandemic crisis. Likewise, the Bronze based technology was
unable to save the formers from system collapse. The power of writing was
very uninhibited by the Minoans which left them with no reason to either learn
or teach the skill. Likewise, the complex civilization regained itself with the
emergence of models that grew out of the post-Bronze age. The city-states
remained but there was fall of empires and new emergence of new empires
out of them hundreds of year later, which includes Athens, Sparta and Ionia
that discovered the complex behavior of trade, patterns of information
exchange and Phoenician alphabets, were among the new inventions.

Therefore, after the collapse of Silicon age managing the unknown is to

prepare for unknown that is impossible to know now. However, the new world
in remaking will call for diverse changes and emergence of new normal that is
already in process of reorienting and challenging the modern way of living.
Moreover, in the hour of present crisis there is also successful exploitation of
available opportunities that translate into more erudite and flexible used of
technology, less polarization, and the realization of the importance of the free
good and outdoor luxuries.

In order to conclude, the new world order in remaking will definitely tame, train
and facilitate the human civilization accordingly with some of the new
features that were initially disproved but now form the new normal. The
personal interaction becomes dangerous and the social distancing will holds
the new normal behavior. The comfort of personal presence of others will be
switched to more comfortable experience with others absence. The paradox
of online communication will become the phenomena under the prevailing
circumstances. Moreover, there is emergence of a new kind of patriotism,
which will no longer be equated with armed forces, as the virus cannot be
shoot. For instance, in the present circumstances amid Covid-19 front-liners
are not the armed forces with ancillary weapons indeed they are doctors,
nurses, pharmacist, paramedics, small business owners and employees.

Apart from this, there will be decline in polarization as the unusual shocks hit
the global economy after the Covid-19 there is high potential to break the
Americans fifty years of legacy of accelerating political and cultural
polarization. Indeed these crises have moved the global towards national
solidarity and functionality and more based on the President Xi’s ideology of
community of common destiny as Covid-19 eventually emerges as the
common enemy around the globe. It will also translate into a new civic
federalism. Moreover, there will be a revival of faith in serious experts and
their research it will no longer be over-looked. The pandemic will also marks
the end of intimate association with market oriented society and hyper
individualism for instance President Trump is trying to suspend the November
election and many other important global events are either cancelled or
postponed. With the end of Covid-19, the political paradigm shifts will make
more investments in public goods especially health care services. There will
be complete change in the religious worship. It is for the first time in history,
when all faiths have undergone and still experiencing the daunting challenge
of keeping faith alive. There will be exercising of new reforms that ensures
plagues do drive change. Furthermore, the regulatory barriers to online tools
and digitization will fall. There were creative invention of robots, virtual reality
and artificial intelligence, which takes lead of new normal. There will be
evolution of digitized health system. Lastly, the bitter truth is human created
science is declining overtime but it reigns again with associating supremacy
to laws of nature.

In brief, learning from past experiences, promoting creative destruction in

present and optimistic to cope up and prepare for new phenomena, new
circumstances, new normal, new behavior, new laws and new power poles
and pivot is the perfect recipe for successful lead of new order in re-making.

Advisor (Pakistan Institute of Management, Lahore operated under Federal

Ministry of Industries and Production, Islamabad) and Foreign Research
Associate (Centre of Excellence, China Pakistan Economic Corridor, Islamabad)
Ramzan preparation
dailytimes.com.pk/593188/ramzan-preparation-daily-times

April 10, 2020

With Ramzan just round the corner, it is important for the government to
prepare in advance and make sure people are not burdened by insufficient
supply and high prices of essential goods. While the government is doing
what it can to prevent supply bottlenecks, it will still be vital to preempt any
unforeseen squeeze down the road. And, given the circumstances, there’s
every reason to expect a few problems. It’s a good thing that food transport
was not stopped despite the lockdown, but the agriculture sector is still under
strain because of lack of personnel, due the quarantine, for wheat harvesting
as well as transportation. Plus, with all industry shut down, farmers are
wondering where to get all the things the need for their farming; like
pesticides and fertilisers.

A very difficult balancing act is required on the part of the government.

Ensuring adequate supplies will require the necessary amount of economic
activity as well. But that would risk greater public interaction and a wider
spread of the coronavirus. And, of course, neither is it possible to do nothing
about an impending supply crunch nor is it acceptable to put a lot of people
suddenly at risk. The only conceivable solution is for the government to carry
much of the load and restrict private sector activity to a minimum. But that
would also require far greater financial benefits than the government is doling
out right now.

The Rs2.5 billion subsidy for 19 essential items through the Utility Stores
Corporation (USC) is an appropriate step for Ramzan, especially since the
prime minister’s special advisor, Firdaus Awan, explained that it could be
raised to Rs7 billion if needed. But the manner of delivering goods to the
people would have to be improved. It’s obvious that a large number of people
will now descend on these stores for food and other items come Ramzan.
And the government knows well in advance that such a situation could create
problems regarding social distancing and all that. So it must devise a
workable strategy now rather than think of one when it is confronted by such
a problem and precious time has been lost. Everybody must also remember
that important as seeing Ramzan peacefully through is, it will not be the end
of the problem. There’s little chance of the coronavirus going away by Eid, so
the government must also make sure that its kitty is not completely empty
after Ramzan. These are difficult times, indeed, and the government needs to
act very wisely and timely to keep things under control. *
Covid-19: a threat and a wakeup call
thenews.com.pk/print/642429-covid-19-a-threat-and-a-wakeup-call

The virus is a test of how well states are run. It is not without reason that East
Asia’s response is better than in other parts of the world. On the one hand,
there are science deniers, and on the other, states acting on evidence and
what they know about dealing with disease. The East Asian success shows
the strength or weakness of societies, effectiveness of their governing
structure, social capital, and investment in people.

Covid-19 has also generated a debate on the pros and cons of authoritarian
versus democratic states. This is a false binary. More likely, East Asia’s
success comes from the trust between state and its citizens made possible
by a caring and responsive government. With leaders not sowing the seed of
doubt about science and common-sense matters, citizens there responded
sensibly. On the other hand, missing toilet paper is 2020’s enduring symbol of
the West.

Many experts have shared their views on what the world may look like after
the pandemic. Human suffering from the virus, and job losses, could lead to
social unrest. We may have seen its onset in Africa, but it may spread. Again,
Fareed Zakariya warns us to “expect political turmoil, refugees, even
revolutions, on a scale we have not seen for decades”. Poor countries and
those overly dependent on oil revenue may suffer the most. Pressure on
developing economies will be especially high. If they fall short in meeting
citizens’ needs, which is more than likely, alienation and state fragility would
deepen. This will have both economic and social consequences.

Will the world learn to become a more humane place with compassion for
fellow beings? That is unlikely. The blame game is in full force in some
countries. In fact, the initial reaction to the virus in the West bordered on
racism and name calling.
Even before the virus, the US had begun to undo the structure for global trade
and capital transfers put in place in the 20th century. That trend seems
unlikely to reverse and may gain force. With logistics disrupted, firms relying
on global value chains and just-in-time stocks may prefer to have future
supplies closer to home. Also, both major parties in the US agree on the need
to decouple with China. So far it appears that a zero-sum game will prevail
over economic rationale. The crisis is unlikely to cause the US to think
differently.

The virus has restored belief in government, an idea that has been out of
favour for years. The 2008 crisis had also brought home the government's
role in addressing what was entirely a market crisis. As soon as the crisis was
over, there was a push back. A neoliberal alliance of big money and some
economists has captured state decision-making. They will continue to have a
hold. As IFIs also work on the same philosophy, developing economies too
are forced to make these policy choices. One difference this time could be
selective belief in the virtues of open markets by the West. The world will be
poorer for such a narrow-minded approach.

Another aspect of government power is reliance on intrusive technology to

track and surveil. Put in force during a crisis, there is a danger that it may stay
as a tool in the hands of governments and large corporations. Many people
may not like to cede their privacy easily.

In Pakistan, there is a positive trend not seen before. Rather than depend on
the centre, provinces have taken ownership of the fight against the virus. The
centre too, after some stumbling, has been decisive and forthcoming in its
action. I hope it moves further and begins much-needed structural reforms to
put the economy on a firm footing to bring about sustained growth. We may
use this opportunity as even the IFIs may agree to our plan during this
emergency.
Another trend already in place and which should accelerate is the shift of
power from the West to the East. In 2003, Western leadership lost the world’s
trust as it launched the Iraq war. That war made clear that the West could not
be relied upon to use wisely the immense power it enjoyed in a unipolar world.
These doubts strengthened in 2008, with the financial crisis. The onset of the
2008 crisis was clear to everyone except Western governments. Now the
West’s handling of the pandemic has brought home again its leadership
deficit.

The shift, if at all, will be gradual. The US still has a huge lead in technology
and military ability. With a strong and astute leadership, it may regain its
status as a symbol of progress. Yet, there is every possibility now of a divided
world. History teaches us that there are unquantifiable costs that insular and
closed societies must bear. Those who build partnerships and open
economic opportunities prosper. In a divided world everyone loses.

My last thought is whether or not the world has the leaders to lift us from this
age of despondency into a period of hope and prosperity. Major world
problems have a global footprint. Climate change needs concerted effort.
Though there is much that countries can do on their own, it needs the major
powers to work together for a long-term solution.

While recognizing its great benefits, Richard Danzig of the Center for a New
American Security lists also technology’s danger. So far, the West has sought
tech superiority. The history of nuclear weapons informs that with its best
effort the West could not keep other countries from gaining access to it. The
same is true for new technology. The West would do well to work with other
countries to prevent accidents and other more malevolent effects of
technology. Rather than control AI, synthetic biology, and other systems, the
West should open discussion with other nations to guard against accidents,
he says.
We do not have the leaders today who can make the best of all the challenges
and opportunities. Elections and better awareness of the cost of a divided
world may bring leaders with the vision to save us. A crisis is a time for
leaders to show their mettle. They must inspire, build trust, rally the people,
and share empathy and compassion. This is an opportunity for them to
transform their country and the world. So far, this is just a hope.

The pandemic is a threat but also a wake-up call. We cannot act as though
the world works in silos. Our future depends on how all of us respond.

Concluded

The writer is chair and CEOInstitute for Policy Reforms, and a former
commerce

minister.
PMDC’s restoration
tribune.com.pk/story/2195233/6-pmdcs-restoration

April 11, 2020

By editorial
Apr.11,2020

The entire society salutes the healers in these testing times

The Pakistan Medical and Dental Council (PMDC) is to resume functioning

after the Islamabad High Court settled a dispute between the former and the
federal government. The absence of a regulator was a hurdle in the way of
recruiting and registering new medical graduates at a time when more
doctors are needed to cope with the coronavirus pandemic.
The IHC recently gave the ruling that has paved the way for the PMDC to
resume functioning. President Arif Alvi had promulgated an ordinance on Oct
19 last year under which the PMDC stood dissolved. The PMDC was to be
replaced by the Pakistan Medical Commission. The presidential ordinance
was challenged in the IHC. In February, the IHC restored the PMDC declaring
the ordinance null and void. However, the PMDC could not resume functioning
due to dispute with the government on issues like the number of PMDC
employees to be taken back. The PMDC wanted all its employees, who had
been on its rolls before the promulgation of the presidential ordinance, to be
retained. The government was not willing to allow all the employees back on
their jobs. Now the government, in concurrence with the court, has agreed to
allow a limited number of the employees to resume their duties. The court
has ordered the removal of law-enforcement personnel from the PMDC
premises.

Concerned quarters had opposed the dissolution of the PMDC and its
replacement by another body. They had viewed the government’s move with
suspicion as they had claimed that the idea of PMC was floated by vested
interests which had their own agenda to pursue. They had expressed fears
that the formation of a commission would benefit those running private
institutions of medical education and the new measure would also harm the
interests of doctors. Medical professionals have welcomed the development,
saying it has come when it was most needed in view of the coronavirus
pandemic. The entire society salutes the healers in these testing times.

Published in The Express Tribune, April 11th, 2020.

Covid-19 and our response strategy
tribune.com.pk/story/2195240/1-covid-19-response-strategy

April 11, 2020

By dr sadia sulaiman
Apr.11,2020

This crisis provides an ideal opportunity for the government to bridge the gap between the
state and society

Since March 16, Pakistan has been facing the onslaught of Covid-19 which
continues to wreak havoc with the country’s already frail economy.

On March 30, PM Imran Khan, in his address to the nation, laid out a response
strategy comprising three pillars. The first involved setting a voluntary Corona
Relief Tiger Force (CRTF) at the district level across the country. The force
would identify and assist the needy and spread awareness about the
pandemic at the grassroots level.
Second is the Prime Minister’s Covid-19 Pandemic Relief Fund-2020 seeking
public donations from inland and expatriate Pakistanis. The fund is linked to
the government’s ongoing poverty eradication project, Ehsaas, which expects
to cater to 2.2 million people during the crisis. According to the PM, the fund
will be auditable, and distribution from it will be transparent. Furthermore,
individual donors will not be queried about their sources of funds, and a tax
deduction would also be granted to those who would claim it in their tax
returns. People could register to receive assistance through the Ehsaas
Facebook page, and likewise, donors could also register with Ehsaas. The
programme will act as a liaison by connecting donors and recipients in nearby
localities.

The third pillar deals with the economic side of the crisis, where the PM
promised the provision of soft loans for those private businesses who would
not lay off their employees. The government’s actions so far have been swift.
The Pandemic Relief Fund was activated within 24 hours, while the CRTF
received 90,000 applications within 48 hours.

While the response strategy is a well-conceived one, it is fraught with

challenges which need to be overcome deftly. For example, maintaining an
expectedly large force of volunteers and imparting training and providing
medical gears to them is an uphill task. Secondly, the entire strategy is built
around a relief fund, which is difficult to realise at this critical moment. People
may not be willing to donate since they are grappling with the possibility of
unemployment during this global pandemic. Moreover, previous experiences
with such funds have not been very encouraging. While people have
contributed generously to such funds that were announced in the past two
decades, they did not witness its trickle-down effects. The latest was the
Diamer-Basha and Mohmand Dams Fund (July 2018) which raised Rs12
billion under the incumbent government. However, where the amount was
utilised remains unknown. The core challenge here is the trust deficit between
the state and society, which the present government needs to bridge for the
relief programme to be successful. So what are the government’s options?
The PM should encourage rich entrepreneurs in Pakistan, especially those
from his party, to contribute to the fund. This will encourage the public to also
donate to the government relief fund.

Second, Pakistan should take visible action against hoarders if the incumbent
government wishes to build its image and win the trust of the masses.

While the promise of soft loans may not be appealing to private business
owners, perhaps a limited tax waiver or rebate could encourage them to retain
their employees during the crisis.

Pakistan also needs to be mindful of its obligations under the FATF. It would
create issues if people contributing to the fund are not questioned about the
sources of their income. Moreover, welfare organisations included in the
programme need to be properly screened so as to avoid any FATF debacle.

This crisis provides an ideal opportunity for the government to bridge the gap
between the state and society. Given Pakistan’s socio-economic challenges,
only public support and confidence can help usher the state through these
challenging times.

Published in The Express Tribune, April 11th, 2020.

Time to say goodbye to austerity
tribune.com.pk/story/2195236/6-time-say-goodbye-austerity

April 11, 2020

By m ziauddin
Apr.11,2020

The government would need to abandon the IMF programme forthwith

The bad news is that the IMF has postponed the approval of the second
review of the $6 billion bailout package scheduled for April 10, 2020, due to
“delay in implementing agreed actions by Pakistan”, delaying disbursement of
the $450 million tranche. But the good news is that the Fund is said to be
working expeditiously to respond to Pakistan’s request for $1.4 billion from
over a trillion dollar fund the IMF has reserved for member states facing
Covid-19 threats.
While it would be advisable for the official economic managers to keep their
fingers crossed as they await the Fund’s decision for assistance from the
rapid assistance toolkit facility, it would not be inappropriate, in view of the
new challenges we are facing due to the deadly virus, for the government to
use the opportunity to delve into the pros and cons of continuing the Fund-
driven austerity programme. While doing so, let us also be warned that the
Fund presently does not seem to be inclined to extend waivers on key agreed
measures. Had the Fund felt it advisable, perhaps it would have extended the
required number of waivers and approved the second review on schedule.

In any case, the agreed revenue income target of Rs5.5 trillion being too
unrealistic given the projected growth rate of around 2.5%, would have
remained out of the FBR’s reach no matter how well it tried to accomplish the
impossible. Indeed, with the proverbial inefficiency of the FBR personnel and
their entrenched corrupt ways, achieving a revenue target of even Rs5 trillion
would have been next to impossible. The number of filers has increased but
most of these new filers had filed their returns, though not required to, as they
don’t earn taxable incomes, only to take advantage of the difference between
the rates of withholding taxes payable by filers and non-filers. Also,
privatisation is not expected to take off because of the unfavourable
investment climate and because no one seems interested in buying heavily
indebted and overstaffed public sector enterprises. Meanwhile, the circular
debt has continued to expand forcing the government to continue to pass on
the cost of its inefficiencies to consumers.

A number of independent economists have warned that continuing with the

Fund-imposed conditionalities would only further restrict the already meagre
expenditure on health and cause further deterioration in the health delivery
mechanism which is already inadequate to meet even the rudimentary health
hazards. But a recipient can do away with conditionalities either by getting the
Fund to agree to extend a number of waivers or by unilaterally withdrawing
from the programme forthwith. That is how most of the Fund’s previous
bailout packages for Pakistan have ended. It’s almost always at the stage of
second review that either we have abandoned the programme on our own or
the IMF had ended finding the recipient too reluctant to continue
implementing the austerity-related conditionalities.

The first reviews by the Fund have always passed off smoothly because it is
the masses, mostly the poor and lower middle classes which suffer from the
side effects of the implementation of the Fund’s first tranche of reforms
which invariably include overall price increases and withdrawal of subsidies.
But since the vested interests of the ruling elite get adversely impacted by the
second tranche of reforms, the big businesses and civil and military
bureaucracy which make up the core of the ruling elite, make it impossible for
the incumbent government to implement them.

Meanwhile, starvation is staring the poor straight in the face because of the
Covid-19-driven extended lockout. And despite the Rs1.2-trillion relief
package mobilised by the government, it has so far failed to reach the poor
because there is no effective distribution system in place yet, and the relief
package looks too inadequate. Therefore, the government would need to
abandon the IMF programme forthwith and focus more on mobilising enough
funds for providing urgent relief to the deserving.

Published in The Express Tribune, April 11th, 2020.

IOK: 250 days of lockdown
tribune.com.pk/story/2195220/6-iok-250-days-lockdown

April 11, 2020

By editorial
Apr.11,2020

Modi and company don’t care about international obligations; otherwise, they wouldn’t have
annexed Kashmir

Just a few weeks under lockdown has people up in arms all over the world.
This is despite the fact that they still have working high-speed internet,
phones, and in some cases, the ability to keep doing their jobs. Now imagine
India-Occupied Kashmir, where the lockdown is now entering its 250th day.
And this is with no internet, no phones, and no jobs. Even essential supplies
and medication were in short supply, as trade with India and the rest of the
region was highly restricted. Even now, after some communications and
internet were restored, heavy restrictions and lowered bandwidth meant that
the internet was still largely unusable.

Then the coronavirus happened. Already 170 cases and at least five Covid-19
related deaths have been recorded in the region. The actual number would be
significantly higher, given that India’s woefully low rate of testing nationwide is
actually higher than the testing rate in the Kashmir region. Even a recent joint
statement issued by six leading international human rights groups
emphasises, beyond just the Covid-19 pandemic, concerns relating to India’s
use of torture, ill-treatment, or arbitrarily depriving people of their liberty. The
joint statement also reminded India of its obligation to ensure the physical
and mental health and well-being of inmates at a time when it is filling jails
with opposition politicians, academics, fruit vendors, and just about anyone
else unfortunate enough to be Kashmiri and opposed to Narendra Modi or the
BJP’s policies.

But here is where the statement becomes pointless. It goes on to remind

India of its international obligations. Modi and company don’t care about
international obligations; otherwise, they wouldn’t have annexed Kashmir in
the first place. But what to talk of international obligations. India’s current
leadership doesn’t even care about the Constitution of India. Subramanian
Swamy, a former Harvard professor and one of Modi’s top advisers, recently
told a US journalist that Muslims are not equal under the Constitution of India,
even though Article 14 literally guarantees equality. Incidentally, Harvard
sacked Swamy for being a bigot. He was also shunned by the more moderate
Atal Bihari Vajpayee, which makes him the perfect guiding light for the Indian
PM.

Published in The Express Tribune, April 11th, 2020.

Soaring public debt
tribune.com.pk/story/2195211/6-soaring-public-debt-2

April 11, 2020

By editorial
Apr.11,2020

Even more appalling is theSBP’s forecast that the govt is on track to double the public debt
by the end of its term

Debts are not bad if they are invested in development projects to bring socio-
economic progress in the country, besides creating jobs and generating taxes.
Such proper ultilisation of debts outweighs the cost of borrowing by spurring
economic growth. That, unfortunately, has not been the case with Pakistan
where money is primarily borrowed to service the debt obtained earlier, with
the result that our public debt has continued to pile on and on — and at a
faster pace, of late. See how. Between 1947 and 2008 i.e. during the first 59
years of the country’s existence, the successive governments made a Rs6
trillion worth of borrowing domestically as well as from foreign countries.
However, the following 10 years — during which the PPP and the PML-N had
one stint each at the Centre — saw the figure swelled to Rs24.2 trillion.

Then came the PTI, in 2018, with Prime Minister Imran Khan not just bitterly
blaming the PPP and PML-N bosses for saddling the nation with huge debts
but also pledging to cut the total public debt by half by the end of his
government’s tenure in 2023. Untrue to his words though, Khan too stretched
out a begging bowl, complaining of empty government coffers, so much so
that left his predecessors far behind in obtaining loans, mainly from the IMF
and some friendly countries. And according to a latest SBP report, the
country’s total public debt has risen to Rs33.4 trillion as of February 2020
from Rs24.2 trillion at the time Khan took over. This shows an addition of
Rs9.2 trillion to the debt burden, with the amount nearly equaling what each of
the PPP and the PML-N had obtained during their full terms.

Even more appalling is the SBP’s forecast that the incumbent government is
on track to double the public debt by the end of its term in 2023. Does that
make a case for the PTI to be included in the debt probe ordered by PM Khan
that primarily targets the PPP and the PML-N?

Published in The Express Tribune, April 11th, 2020.

Pakistan needs a reset
tribune.com.pk/story/2195244/1-pakistan-needs-reset

April 11, 2020

By farrukh khan pitafi

Apr.11,2020

Why is it that critical, lifesaving items disappear during national emergencies

Crises bring out the best and the worst among us. The ongoing double
whammy does nothing less. On one side it has exposed the poverty of our
healthcare system. Who would have known that a country of over 200 million
had only 2,200 ventilators, half of which could not be put to use during a
serious healthcare crisis? As someone who saw a loved one die because of
the absence of a ventilator, I find it unforgivable on any given day, doubly so
during a debilitating pandemic. On the other side we also witnessed the
widespread concern for the poor and the needy.
It will probably remain a mystery to me that in a country where there is no
dearth of charity and benevolence, why is it that critical, lifesaving items
disappear during national emergencies. First, masks started disappearing.
One day when I requested an old acquaintance at a medical store for a few
masks so that I could function in congested spaces, he disappeared behind
the counter for a long time and emerged with a heavily taped thick brown
envelope. Within this envelope were three ordinary masks. The reason for this
precaution? The fear that other customers would demand a few also. The
ones given to me came from the shopkeeper’s own ration. In any case, that is
the story of disappearing masks.

Then came the moment when we learned that sanitisers could be useful in
protecting us from the virus. Next thing you know they had disappeared from
the shelves. Mercifully by that time the government had taken cognisance of
the matter and hence sanitisers started returning to the market. But that also
meant you had to be circumspect. Fake sanitisers were proliferating the
market and the local administration had to carry out raids to discourage their
use.

Then came the moment when the United States President mentioned the
possible advantages of using chloroquine in combating the coronavirus. That
acted as a dog whistle for our hoarders and profiteers. The next day the
cheap anti-malaria drug had disappeared from the market. One day when I
consulted an owner of a pharmaceutical manufacturing company to check
the availability of various medicines and equipment, I was told that one strip
of chloroquine which usually sells for less than Rs100 could now be obtained
in the federal capital as a special favour for Rs11,000. I do not exaggerate.
The infrared temperature gun was now available at the price of Rs22,000. The
more you asked the more perplexing the prices became. And this is the story
of the federal capital where the writ of the government is supposed to be the
strongest. You can imagine what went on elsewhere. I am sure the prices
have stabilised since then as the government has doubled down on price
control. But not before exposing the greed in the society which did not
hesitate to play with lives for a little extra profit.

If that was one aspect exposed, here is another piece of the puzzle. Piety. I
have never seen governments urging people this vociferously to stay away
from Friday congregations for their own good. The President of Pakistan even
sat down with clerics to convince them that this was need of the hour. An
edict came out which fell short of the pledge to momentarily shut down
mosques to stop the spread of the coronavirus. The mosques would stay
open but only a few people would participate in the prayers. But the next
Friday I noticed that the mosque next to my home was packed with
worshippers. Consider this. There are no holier mosques for a Muslim than
those in Makkah and Medina. The congregations had been stopped there to
stop the spread of the virus. But in Pakistan this was unconceivable. The
Sindh government took a tougher stand. Consequently, two policemen were
roughed up in Karachi when they went to remind a local community that
Friday congregations were banned during the lockdown.

Now let us talk about the poor. Like the 2010 floods, the ongoing crisis has
exposed the mind-numbing levels of poverty in the society. People who go
hungry if they do not earn a daily wage were bound to suffer. That is one
reason why there was reluctance in imposing a stricter lockdown. To be
honest, you cannot call it a lockdown if the roads are open for a common
man’s movement. But that was the reason behind the reluctance. And the
government has done a good job in handing out cash to the most vulnerable
in the society. But the other day a video was circulated on social media by the
son of a former president and a landlord. This gentleman, a politician himself,
was almost crying about suffering humanity, grinding poverty and the
possibility of a popular uprising. And this reminded me of the day when I had
visited his village during his father’s life and was agonised by the widespread
poverty and subhuman treatment of the poor there. Irony is lost in this
republic.
As the crisis grows nobody knows where it will take us. This is not an average,
everyday shock to the system. Since the lockdown could not be enforced as
rigidly as was needed and the window of opportunity to contain the spread
has all but passed the governments will have to gradually ease the
restrictions and normal life will resume. How could you not when the entire
world resumes its business? Consequently, the workforce which returns to
jobs will be at a high risk of catching the infection. Even if the weather-related
conjecture about the spread of the disease proves correct the virus will not
truly go away. The economy which was already struggling to survive before
the pandemic will find it even harder to do so in the time of a global recession.

In these troubling times we need three things: unity of purpose, decisiveness

and moral courage. Sadly, all three elude us to this day. There cannot be a
bigger motivation than survival. If a direct threat to this has not been able to
unite us, I do not know what else will.

Since the current crisis has exposed so many fault lines in our society the
only way to survive is to seek a reset. That will happen when we all can
overcome our differences. Without unity and strategy we are only sleep
walking towards an existential disaster.

Published in The Express Tribune, April 11th, 2020.

 TODAY'S PAPER | APRIL 11, 2020

Trump vs WHO
Editorial | April 11, 2020

THE American president is known to tweet first and ask questions later. However, in
such unprecedented global circumstances, world leaders have a responsibility, more
so than before, to issue carefully vetted statements, especially when discussing
matters related to Covid-19. Earlier this week, Donald Trump launched a damaging
critique of the World Health Organisation, accusing the UN-affiliated body of going soft
on China, and threatening to cut American funding for WHO. While there have been
others who have also criticised WHO’s response to the coronavirus crisis, saying that
the global health body took too long to declare Covid-19 a pandemic, the fact is that
this is not the time for censure; informed critiques of what should and should not have
been done can wait until the crisis starts to subside. However, Mr Trump has never
been one for subtle diplomacy. Moreover, his own response to the infection in the US
has been criticised by American governors and mayors. The US president himself had
early on downplayed the risks of the virus, preferring to keep the wheels of the
American economy going. It is only after infection and deaths spiked in the US over the
past few days that he changed tack.

Bashing multilateral organisations has been a favourite pastime of the US leader. In the past,
he has heaped abuse on bodies such as the International Criminal Court and UN rights
outfits, all the while upholding the principle of American exceptionalism. However, it is
hoped he does not follow through on his threat to cut WHO’s funds. Regardless of any errors
of judgement during the pandemic, the health body has worked tirelessly, especially where
developing countries are concerned, to put out the message that a global response is the
only way to eliminate Covid-19. That response can best be marshalled by an outfit like WHO.
Multilateralism may be far from perfect, but when a global health crisis challenges
humanity, there may not be too many other options.

Published in Dawn, April 11th, 2020

 TODAY'S PAPER | APRIL 11, 2020

Ehsaas begins
Editorial | April 11, 2020

THE largest distribution of direct cash assistance to the poor and unemployed began
on Thursday as 4m people out of a total of 12m eligible recipients received the go-
ahead to report to the nearest distribution point and collect Rs12, 000. As the
distribution gathers pace, it is hoped that it will play a significant role in helping those
who have been most badly hit by the ongoing lockdowns. There is no doubt that such
an effort was needed urgently and the federal government should be commended for
the speed with which they have made it operational. Perhaps it should also be borne in
mind that this is the first such cash assistance being distributed through the Ehsaas
channel, with more likely to become necessary next month, and perhaps again the
month after that. A few important concerns continue to linger, though. First is the
paucity of distribution points. Across the country, 17,000 points have been set up using
the networks of two banks. This is far too small a number for an exercise of this scale.
If done properly, the number should be more than 10 times this much. One result of
this was seen in the massive crowds that formed outside the distribution points. Inside
the premises, where the distribution was being carried out, it seemed that many places
properly enforced the social-distancing protocols, but the entire effort appeared to be
futile when people were forced to congregate in large crowds crammed tightly
together outside the premises, as they waited for their turn to be let in. The purpose of
cash assistance for the poor is defeated — in fact, reversed — if the beneficiaries are
exposed to the hazards of contagion in the course of collection.

The government should urgently reverse its earlier decision to shut out the telecom
companies from the disbursement of these funds, since mobile operators can multiply the
number of distribution points manifold. They may charge a fee for their service, but banks
make money by simply holding Ehsaas funds for a few days — and that money is made from
the government’s account, in any case, since it is the government that the banks are lending
primarily to these days. The second important concern is targeting. It is clear that the initial
list of eligible beneficiaries has been drawn up in a terrible hurry, but there is still time in
which to tighten the criteria.

Published in Dawn, April 11th, 2020

 TODAY'S PAPER | APRIL 11, 2020

Lifting lockdown
Editorial | April 11, 2020

REPORTS of the spread of the coronavirus in a katchi abadi in Karachi have raised the
alarm for provincial authorities — and for good reason. In a video message, Sindh
Chief Minister Murad Ali Shah said his fear about the spread of Covid-19 in shanty
towns has become a reality, as a family of seven living in a slum area had been
infected. Flouting social distancing guidelines, the head of the family had gone out of
his home and caught the infection, which he transmitted to his family members,
including his one-year-old son and six-year-old daughter. In the same message, Mr
Shah said the lockdown, which is in effect in the province till April 14, would be lifted
in phases and that new SOPs to limit the coronavirus’s spread would be announced for
each sector. As he made this announcement, Pakistan’s total confirmed Covid-19 cases
had crossed 4,600 with almost 70 deaths. According to projections, the figure for
confirmed cases will likely be in the tens of thousands by the end of the month.

The development is a major cause for concern, and the government’s fears are not without
reason. The mere idea of a fast-spreading virus penetrating densely populated slum
dwellings is a nightmare for authorities already faced with the mammoth challenge of
containing this virus. Transmission in these localities would occur rapidly, bringing death
and more misery for a segment of the population already lacking basic social amenities.
Furthermore, the extent of slum dwellers’ ‘underlying medical conditions’ — a characteristic
which the virus preys upon, often with fatal results — would be unknown to the authorities,
compounding the healthcare challenge. Given these realities, and the limited capacity for
testing and health services, all provincial governments must extend the lockdown for at
least two weeks to assess the situation. From China to Italy, every medical expert has
attested that a lockdown is the only way to curb the spread of this contagion. No doubt, such
measures come with economic challenges, but by now, the authorities are well aware of
those obstacles and should be in a better position to take the appropriate measures to
provide some sort of relief while the majority is asked to remain home.

This approach towards a lockdown must be adopted by each province and reflected
unanimously in the messaging of both the central and provincial governments.
Unfortunately, the pandemic period in Pakistan is witnessing the discord and bickering that
is so characteristic of our politics. The government must understand that now more than
ever is the time to hold back grudges and develop a working relationship with the
provinces. Disharmony, a lack of engagement and walkouts during meetings will only hurt
the morale of healthcare workers and citizens who are grappling to adjust to a new world.
Public officials ought to rise above petty politics and confront this unprecedented health and
economic crises with solidarity in their ranks.

Published in Dawn, April 11th, 2020

ARTICLE CONTINUES AFTER AD

 TODAY'S PAPER | APRIL 11, 2020

Covid, climate & Pakistan

Ashraf Jehangir Qazi | April 11, 2020

The writer is a former ambassador to the US, India and

China and head of UN missions in Iraq and Sudan.

THE Covid-19 pandemic is much more than a passing horror. Official statistics,
especially in developing countries, are largely meaningless. The pandemic will
potentially kill millions around the world through waves of succeeding pandemics and
the secondary effects on body and mind over years to come. Global warming, the
greatest existential threat, indirectly influences the emergence of pandemics and
renders “once in a century” natural disasters much more frequent.

Vijay Kolinjivadi, of the University of Antwerp, says both Covid-19 and climate emergencies
“have their roots in the world’s current economic model — that of the pursuit of infinite
economic growth at the expense of the environment”. According to him: “the insatiable
greed of corporate capitalism for natural resources has forced humans to encroach on
various natural habitats and expose themselves to yet unknown pathogens”. The biologist,
Rob Wallace, in his book, Big Farms Make Big Flu, says: “this created the perfect
environment for the mutation and emergence of new diseases”.
 The arc of human presumption is bending
towards human extinction.

Covid-19 and its succeeding pandemics are likely to occur with shorter and shorter intervals
between them. This will fatally distract and disable states and societies from addressing the
existential challenge of global warming. Likewise, irreversible global warming, which is on
course to set in around 2030 — unless a global revolution of peace and cooperation
intervenes — will similarly render states and societies incapable of addressing any serious
challenge, including further waves of Covid-19 or other global pandemics.

Covid-19 and climate change may appear to have contrary impacts on the environment. The
pandemic could lead to economic and industrial collapse, thereby drastically reducing
carbon emissions, which would temporarily allow the global environment to slowly recover
from its current trend towards irreversible disaster. Climate change, on the contrary, if not
quickly and significantly checked, will compel humankind to cope with ever-increasing
global warming and its several lethal consequences. Ordered human society will not survive
much beyond the current century.

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So, Covid-19 and ensuing pandemics on the one hand, and climate change and its direct and
indirect lethal derivatives on the other, are actually working in tandem to soon destroy
human civilisation. Unless, of course, we assume the current pandemic will be effectively
contained over the next year or so; it will not be followed by secondary morbidity effects
and succeeding waves of pandemics; the fortuitously improved environment caused by
industrial collapse and dramatically decreased carbon emissions will be sustained during
the economic recovery after Covid-19; and a global political epiphany will guide the world
towards a comprehensive ‘green new deal’ which would transform national policies,
including foreign policies. India-Pakistan relations, including a Kashmir settlement, will
need to fit the paradigm. Possible?

These are ‘heroic assumptions’ for which one may pray and hope. But for the time being,
there is insufficient factual basis to make them realistic expectations. This is because of (a)
the nature of the overt and covert corporate/military dominance over governance in much
of the world and (b) the corporate capitalist economic model that prioritises the interests of
not even 0.01 per cent of the world’s population. In Pakistan, ruthless and unending high-
level corruption is on daily display, including the current sugar and wheat scandal. This is a
classic instance of elite governance through class warfare. In such circumstances, merely
honest and well-intentioned leaders may at best bring about piecemeal improvements, but
never the systemic structural change required for survival.

Since the departure of Pakistan’s founding father, no government — whether constitutional

or unconstitutional, civilian or military, elected or unelected, predominantly religious or
secular, rhetorically progressive or conservative, headed by competent or incompetent
leadership — has been an exception to the elitist class warfare structure of Pakistani
governance. The powers that be are prisoners of their own class interests. They are also
morally challenged. They have neither the time or interest nor the courage of their stated
convictions in order to listen, engage, learn and improve.

Noam Chomsky rightly observes that Corporate America supports both socialism and the
welfare state, but only for itself, not for the people. The US government’s massive
coronavirus relief package for the more vulnerable victims of the pandemic is in fact a
multi-trillion dollar bailout for Corporate America. American working classes who comprise
most of the victims of the pandemic are expected to be “rugged individualists” who need
little or no help from the government. Corporate America and its minions around the world
have systematically sought to dismantle, disable or limit public healthcare systems. Biden’s
victory over Sanders is emblematic of the near impossibility of economic and political
reform in the US.

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Dependent elites in most countries, including Pakistan, follow similar paths, even when
their leaders proclaim themselves socialists or supporters of the welfare state and
champions of the poor. Bhutto’s cover was Islamic socialism. Today we refer to Medina. The
pattern of budgetary allocations remains unchanged.

Accordingly, the underclass will die in proportionately larger numbers than the middle and
upper classes from Covid-19. The people of Pakistan are not in this pandemic together. They
are in it as unequally as they were before, and as they will be afterwards. Climate
catastrophe, being far more insidious and overwhelming, will be more egalitarian in its
human devastation. The only way out of this fatal morass is a comprehensive
transformation of state and society.

This cannot come about within the structures that have governed Pakistan. Saving Pakistan
will require the dismantling of such structures, which can only happen if there is a family of
people-based movements both inside and beyond Pakistan. Otherwise, the world will end, in
the words of T.S. Eliot, “not with a bang but a whimper”.

Antonio Gramsci stressed the need for civil society to be intellectually pessimistic, but with a
will that is optimistic. Otherwise, as Thucydides would say: “the strong will continue to do
what they can, and the weak shall continue to suffer what they must”. Until, at last, the
curtain finally drops.

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The writer is a former ambassador to the US, India and China and head of UN missions in Iraq
and Sudan.

ashrafjqazi@gmail.com

www.ashrafjqazi.com

Published in Dawn, April 11th, 2020

 TODAY'S PAPER | APRIL 11, 2020

Sweet & sour governance

Fahd Husain | April 11, 2020

The writer is Dawn’s resident editor in Islamabad.

SOMETIMES what official reports do not say is more important that what they do say.

The virus-plagued landscape was rocked last week by two FIA-led reports that contained
fairly good content and fairly bad grammar. They delved into the murky world of the sugar
and wheat sectors. Commissioned by Prime Minister Imran Khan in the wake of shortages
and price hikes earlier this year, the reports are littered with data and ‘findings’ that will
shock absolutely no one in particular. And yet the magnitude of faux-outrage has registered
fairly high on the political Richter scale.

So what gives?

The crux of the yawn-inducing findings: federal government approved the export of sugar,
the Punjab government approved a subsidy and sugar mill owners made a killing. We are
also told such salacious facts like which sugar baron commands what percentage of the
market share. The rest is left to our imagination.
 ARTICLE CONTINUES AFTER AD

When imagination takes over, nothing else stands a chance. Nothing. So one person’s wild
imagination runs on to TV screens and says the prime minister has just won a crusade
against the biggest mafia of all; another man’s wilder imagination leaps on to the front
pages of newspapers and proclaims with relish that the leader has accomplished what he
had set out to do; while yet another unbridled, unharnessed and maniacally uncontrollable
imagination sprints to the social media minefield to herald the end of all conflicts of interest
in the government. Forever. And Ever.

When imagination takes over, nothing

stands a chance.

Right then.

Back in the real world, things are a bit different. Here such weighty reports are expected to
be less an indictment of an individual and more that of the system that produces situations
that in turn produce such reports. If someone, somewhere did not like Jahangir Tareen
because he was making oodles of money while wielding outsized influence over the running
of the ruling party and the government this ruling party rules, well then that person is a tad
bit late to the game. Tareen did not start making money a few months ago. Tareen also did
not start wielding outsized influence on the party and government a few months ago. If he
ends up becoming the only casualty of the report, something is clearly amiss.

Actually, it is more than just something. When we zoom out of the individual-specific focus
and pan across the wider arc of systemic rot, a more expansive set of variables come into
focus.
 ARTICLE CONTINUES AFTER AD

Act 1, Scene 1: In October 2018, the Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) meets to
discuss an agenda that includes the question of allowing the export of sugar. The meeting is
chaired by the then finance minister, Asad Umar, and in attendance is a galaxy of
ministerial grandees like Razzaq Dawood, Khusro Bakhtiyar, Ghulam Sarwar Khan, Sheikh
Rashid Ahmed, as well as the governors of the State Bank of Pakistan. This august forum is
provided a summary by the food ministry that contains numbers and dates; it says there is
excess stock of sugar available with the mills. Some among the ministerial grandees argue
that this excess sugar should be allowed for export so that ‘local farmers can benefit’. The
finance minister agrees and the approval is granted.

Act 1, Scene 2: In December 2018, the matter of export is brought in front of the Punjab
government. The word ‘subsidy’ surreptitiously creeps into the discussion. The finance
ministry of Punjab disagrees with the grant of subsidy, and says so in writing. The
government of Punjab goes ahead anyway and grants a subsidy of Rs3 billion to the sugar
industry for export. Many sugar barons make a killing.

Act 2, Scene 1: In December 2018, the retail price of sugar stands at Rs55.99 per kilo. By
February 2020, the sweet stuff is selling at Rs79.86 per kg.

Act 2, Scene 2: Well, here is where this scene is still being scripted. The script may have a
predictable ending, but what it should, ideally, weave together is a narrative that goes
something like this:

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The ECC made a decision that was its to make. Fair enough. But what did it base its decision
on? A summary by the food ministry. What was that summary based on? A set of data about
existing stocks of sugar. Where did this data come from? A food inspector must have visited
all sugar mills and noted down exact figures? How is his information verified? Has the
source code for possible systemic manipulations ever been dissected down to the bare
minimum in an effort to repair and reform it?

In this particular case, was there in fact the kind of surplus stock that was reported to the
ECC? Perhaps there was. But if in case — just in case — there was not, can you imagine the
magnitude of the fallout of a decision made in good spirit by the ECC?

Points to ponder.

And points to wonder too. The government of Punjab made a call to grant the subsidy for
sugar import. Fair enough. If it was a good decision, should we not know whom to reward?
If it was a bad decision, should we not know whom to punish? Perhaps everyone did the
right thing by making the right call based on the right information, laced with the right
intentions, for all the right reasons.

Perhaps when in doubt, best to turn to Shakespeare:

Act 3, Scene 3 (The play Julius Caesar)

Cinna the Poet: Directly, I am going to Caesar’s funeral.

First Citizen: As a friend or an enemy?

Cinna the Poet: As a friend.

Third Citizen: Your name, sir, truly.

Cinna the Poet: Truly, my name is Cinna.

First Citizen: Tear him to pieces; he’s a conspirator.

Cinna the Poet: I am Cinna the poet, I am Cinna the poet.

Fourth Citizen: Tear him for his bad verses, tear him for his bad verses.

The writer is Dawn’s resident editor in Islamabad.

Twitter: @fahdhusain

Published in Dawn, April 11th, 2020

 TODAY'S PAPER | APRIL 11, 2020

Grim choices
Rashid Amjad | April 11, 2020

The writer is a professor at the Lahore School of

Economics and former vice chancellor of the Pakistan
Institute of Development Economics.

AS the recent issue of The Economist starkly puts it, the Covid-19 crisis has raised grim
choices and trade-offs between ‘life, death, and the economy’ for almost all
governments fighting this deadly pandemic: every course of action will impose vast
economic and social costs.

In Pakistan, the major trade-offs are difficult to resolve for the following reasons. The first is
the trade-off between a complete lockdown and ensuring the survival of the working poor
— almost a third of the country’s labour force — and their families. Without access to work,
they will have no income to meet their basic needs and the government’s capacity to
provide support to them may well be insufficient, which could breed social unrest.

The second trade-off is between a lockdown and allowing limited economic activity to
ensure the production and distribution of food and daily necessities. The third is the
difficult decision concerning how long to continue the lockdown, which could eventually
bring the entire economy to a grinding halt.

The biggest challenge is the distress of the

poor.

These trade-offs reflect growing evidence that the more one relaxes or delays the
enforcement of a complete lockdown, the more lives and time will be lost in bringing this
virus under control. This is the lesson from China, which seems to have finally contained the
virus in Wuhan — where local authorities were able to enforce a complete lockdown —
against the much higher price in terms of lives lost in Italy, Spain, the UK and the US, which
delayed doing so. The fact is that many people may be asymptomatic carriers, and only
social distancing can prevent the chain reaction of a spread resulting in rising numbers.

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Pakistan has so far been spared the high death toll witnessed in many other parts of the
world. Even if the total numbers of those affected (over 4,500) may be a gross
underestimate, they are not alarming per se, given the size of the population. Partly, these
numbers may also reflect Pakistan’s having enforced and implemented a partial lockdown
in major cities and towns more sensibly than in neighbouring India. There must, however,
be real concern that, of those tested, as many as 15 to 20 per cent have tested positive, even
in rural areas. No wonder the health ministry has suggested that the numbers could rise to
50,000 by the end of April. Some numbers emerging from recent studies are suggesting 20
times this number by the end of May.
It is therefore becoming increasingly urgent for the government to spell out its overall
strategy as well as the criteria on which it will decide what economic activities are to be
allowed.

On this critical choice, the government has not yet, unfortunately, come up with a
convincing rationale. The recent measures announced to revive the construction industry is
a case in point. If the aim is to create jobs for daily wage earners who have been most
seriously affected by the lockdown, these measures would certainly help, but in the process,
even the limited lockdown in urban areas will become extremely difficult to implement.

This is because the construction industry has very strong backward and forward linkages
with the rest of the economy, encompassing industry, imports and services. One would need
to open up these sectors as well, if the construction industry is to function. Has the
government thought through the consequences of this for the possible spread of the virus?

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These piecemeal measures point to the need for an integrated strategy that clearly weighs
each policy step the government takes and the trade-offs involved as the situation changes.
It must also realistically weigh the extent to which measures taken by the government have
been successful, for example, in delivering income support to the poor. This strategy must
also take into account where a lockdown is possible and where it is not and adjust
accordingly. In the case of the latter, the emphasis should be on ensuring safe working
conditions.

The biggest challenge the government faces is the increasing distress among the poor who
find themselves without wages and incomes. With hardly any savings, they can barely meet
even their basic dietary needs. The income support promised to them by the federal and
provincial governments is taking longer than envisaged and the mood of affected people in
urban areas is taking a violent turn in some cases. The government needs to review the
situation very soon once all the welfare payments have been made. In making its choice, it
should first bolster its resources and mechanisms to provide the needed support to these
people, rather than prematurely relax the lockdown under this threat.

At this juncture, the cost of the pandemic must not be underestimated.

The writer is a professor at the Lahore School of Economics and former vice chancellor of the
Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.

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Published in Dawn, April 11th, 2020

 TODAY'S PAPER | APRIL 11, 2020

Ancient plagues
Irfan Husain | April 11, 2020

irfan.husain@gmail.com

AS we endure the coronavirus, with all its suffering, discomfort and death, we would
do well to reflect on other times, other plagues.

In other words, there have been far worse pandemics over the centuries. Some of them
devastated civilisations, and brought cities, tribes and nations to their knees.

Just as Covid-19 recognises no social boundaries, so, too, did ancient plagues cross physical
and political borders with ease. Then, as now, globalisation was the main driver behind the
spread of such pandemics.

In the third century AD, a terrible plague went through the Roman Empire, like a hot knife
through butter. According to contemporary accounts, the plague, akin to Ebola, caused the
bowels to melt; blood to ooze from the eyes; and feet to rot away. Among this frightful
carnage, the Roman Empire collapsed into anarchy.
 ARTICLE CONTINUES AFTER AD

Once it had recovered and moved its capital to Constantinople, it fell once more to another
epidemic that began its westward journey from China. In many iterations of the bubonic
plague, bacteria would hitch a ride with lice that rode on rats travelling on board ships
sailing to the West.

Corpses would rot in the streets.

In Alexandria, they would be filled with grain imported by Constantinople. Here, the cargo
would be sold across Europe where the bacteria would cause epidemics of plague that killed
hundreds of thousands. Corpses would rot in the streets, and aristocrats and peasants alike
would be struck down.

Millions suffered grievously from the Justinian plague that visited Byzantium in the sixth
and seventh centuries. Historians speculate that the mass deaths that occurred in East
Europe and the Middle East in that era tilted the balance of power towards North Europe
when Slavic invasions into the Balkans and Greece, the Lombardic incursions into Italy, and
the Berber invasions of Byzantium weakened the existing world order.

In Arab lands, some 25,000 Muslim soldiers died in the plague of ’Amwas. In a familiar
refrain, the suffering of the Muslims was ascribed to moral laxity. According to the clergy,
the plague struck because people there drank alcohol. Since before that period, man-made
and natural disasters have been blamed on similar human failings. To this day, our clerics
blame all kinds of misfortunes on our deviation from holy laws.

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And lest we think Covid-19 is the nastiest epidemic mankind has encountered, consider the
Black Death that wreaked havoc across Europe in the mid-14th century. Started by 12 ships
that docked in Sicily in 1347, it was ultimately responsible for claiming 75m to 125m lives in
Europe and North Africa. This represented 30 per cent to 60pc of the population of 475m. It
took 200 years to recover these numbers.

So when we speak of some thousands of lives lost, the truth is that this number is peanuts
when compared with the major plagues mankind has lived through in the past. In the 19th
century, a plague swept out of Yunnan in China (again!) that may have caused over 10m
deaths. A million of these took place in India, hitting the port cities of Mumbai, Kolkata and
Karachi.

In those days, vaccines had just made a tentative appearance. Crowded shanty towns
encouraged the rapid spread of the disease, while the lack of sewage and basic hygiene
made large communities highly vulnerable. And nor was ‘social distancing’ considered
feasible in densely packed neighbourhoods.

Today, despite the huge advances we have made in medical science, we continue to get hit
by pandemics time and again (MERS, Ebola, etc). In fact, influenza is a type of virus-borne
disease not unlike Covid-19. The latter is more lethal, of course, but the former takes over
2m lives a year. Both can lead to pneumonia and death.

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When AIDS first appeared on the scene in the 1980s, the godly decided that it was a disease
that usually struck gay men, and was thus divine punishment aimed at homosexuals. Now,
after years of experimentation, a cure has been found, and AIDS is just another addition to
the long list of diseases that keeps doctors and researchers busy.

It is our response to Covid-19 that sets it apart from other pandemics. The self-isolation and
social distancing put into place means that most people are cut off from jobs, businesses and
personal relationships. This is playing havoc with the economy and our society. In England,
there are already rumblings of rebellion.

There is also the larger question of how to put society and the economy together again after
the pandemic is over. Modes of production and communication have already undergone
profound changes, and we do not yet know if they can be restored to their pre-coronavirus
shape again.

As usual, it is the poor who are suffering the most, especially in the Third World. Without
clean water to wash their hands, they are more prone to catch the virus, and less likely to
get proper treatment. Covid-19 thus exposes the deep fractures in society.

irfan.husain@gmail.com

Published in Dawn, April 11th, 2020

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