With COVID-19 spreading from China to rest of the world, leading to a much smaller-

than-expected number of flights for EVA. EVA should see its 2020 bottom line sink to
a net loss. Covid-19 impacts EVA Airways’ February revenue falls below ten
billion

2021
5/27
China Airlines and Eva Airways rallied after Commercial Times reported companies
may get extension on repayment of some loans till 2024

Shares of Asian airlines gained after promising results for Merck’s experimental Covid-
19 pill.  Mercks pill  slashed  the risk of getting seriously ill or dying from Covid-19, a study
showed; shares of airlines, hotels and related industries  climbed  In U.S. trading

after Pfizer announced its pill reduced Covid-19 hospitalizations and deaths substantially.
Asian stocks related to travel and tourism rose, following U.S. peers higher, after Pfizer
announced its pill reduced Covid-19 hospitalizations and deaths substantially.

2022/01/23

The US State Department

ordered the evacuation of its Ukrainian embassy staff and dependents (on January
23),which makes it more likely for US-Russia hostilities to break out.

2022/02/17 Sea freight is congested, and air cargo is looking good. In addition, as
countries gradually unblock, air passenger transportation also sees a turnaround,
driving airline stocks to explode.
the end of the year is the peak season for freight transport. As customers have
already shipped a large number of goods, the volume of goods in January decreased
slightly, which in turn affected the decline in freight performance compared with
December last year.

October
The market is positive on Eva Airways’ passenger revenue surge post-pandemic.
However,
looking at the performance of airlines in countries that were early to reopen their
borders
(e.g. US, Singapore), it took them an average of 1-1.5 years for quarterly international
passenger revenue to return to pre-pandemic levels.

Driven by surging global cargo demand and the

firm aggressively utilizing passenger planes for cargo operations, Eva Airways’ 2020-
21
cargo revenue grew by 97% and 70% YoY. However, shipping supply increased post-
pandemic, while cargo demand driven by the pandemic dissipated and declined on
macro
uncertainties. Thus, as cargo business and freight rates dropped off post-pandemic.

Taiwan officially reopened

its borders in October. Looking at the performance of airlines in countries that were
early
to reopen borders, it took an average of 1.0-1.5 years for quarterly international
passenger revenue to return to pre-pandemic levels.

2023
1Q23
with growth of long-haul flights beating that of short-haul flights
a significant increase in flights, and high airfares

1Q23 consolidated sales rose 47.6% YoY,

,mainly thanks to higher revenue from aircraft
maintenance and other services. Passenger transport sales surged 1,740% YoY to
NT$27.8bn, as the number of flights to Europe and the US has returned to pre-
pandemic
levels, driving revenue passenger kilometer (RPK) to 85-90% of the pre-pandemic
level
and keeping ticket prices high. Cargo sales fell almost 60% YoY to NT$10.5bn in 1Q23
due to continued YoY declines in freight ton kilometer (FTK) and revenue yield

The
variable costs of Eva Airways’ and China Airlines’ passenger businesses mainly consist
of
fuel, labor, marketing, and passenger servicing. While crude oil prices have pulled
back
recently, we note that the cost of jet fuel has remained buoyant at around US$100
per
barrel given increasing demand

Eva’s passenger ticket prices will increase nearly 26% from the 2019
level prior to the COVID-19 outbreak and EVA has increased
passenger flights faster than expected, leading to meaningful
growth of revenue passenger kilometer (RPK), which will further
boost 2023F passenger revenue and earnings growth.

2q
Based on observation of Eva Airways’ passenger transport sales, cargo sales and
costs,
2023F earnings will beat expectations on the back of soaring passenger ticket
prices, cargo rates above pre-pandemic levels and oil price declines.

We forecast that 2023F passenger ticket

prices will increase nearly 26% from the 2019 level prior to the COVID-19 outbreak,
mainly as: (1) ticket prices of hot-selling flights to northeast Asia have remained high
due to airport crew shortages, keeping service supply below pre-pandemic levels; (2)
the weighting of passengers departing on international airlines dropped from 44-46%
pre-pandemic to 33% in 1Q23, encouraging domestic airlines to raise prices amid less
competition; and (3) higher variable costs of passenger business post-pandemic are
being
accounted for in ticket pricing. Moreover, Eva Airways’ growth in long-haul flights has
outperformed short-haul flights, accelerating revenue passenger kilometer (RPK)
recovery.
We forecast RPK will return to 98% of the 2019 level in 2023. Other increases on
2019
figures are also in store, with revenue yield set to grow 26%, while passenger
transport
sales will increase 23% to NT$124bn in 2023F.
供給不足支撐客運高票價：我們預估長榮航 2023 年客價票價將較 2019 年疫
情前上漲近 26%，主要原因：1、熱門東北亞航線，因航站人力短缺，無法滿
足疫情前的航班數停靠，在供不應求下，使票價維持高檔。2、國際航空公司
來台載客人數，占出境旅客數比重由疫情前的 44-46%，降至 1Q23 的 33%，
競爭減少使國籍航空可維持高票價。3、在疫後客運變動成本提高，也反應在
高票價上。且在長榮航長程航班恢復高於短程航班，也帶動 2023 年的 PRK 回
到 2019 年的 98%，加上單位收益較 2019 年成長 26%，2023 年客運營收將
較 2019 年成長 23%至 1,240 億元。

The variable costs of Eva Airways’

passenger business mainly consist of fuel, labor, marketing, and passenger servicing.
Despite rising costs in these areas, oil price falls in 2Q23 have led us to maintain our
jet
fuel cost assumption at US$90 per barrel in 2Q23-4Q23F, with jet fuel cost as a share
of
total costs declining to 32% in 2023F from 35% in 2022
mainly as Eva Airways has significantly increased flights to cope with the surge in
travel demand, with growth of long-haul flights beating that of short-haul flights,
accelerating RPK recovery.
Tail-winded by the long
CNY holiday, a significant increase in flights, and high airfares, January 2023 RPK was
83% of the January 2019 level. Passenger revenue yield was 2.8, beating 2.2 in
January
2019, for January 2023F passenger revenue of NT$10.2bn, surpassing January 2019
passenger revenue of NT$9.4bn.

儘管做出了安撫措施，台灣股市仍因對 COVID-19 的擔憂而暴跌

5 月 17 日（國家郵報）- 台北 - 台灣股市週一收盤下跌 3%，儘管行政長官試圖
安撫台灣經濟基本面良好、出口訂單需求強勁、生產活動正常的情況。
過去一周，國內 COVID-19 感染病例突然激增，超過 700 例，週六首都台北提高
了限制措施，這讓已經習慣了在疫情得到良好控制的情況下幾乎正常生活的人
們感到驚慌。

Taiwan shares plunge on COVID-19 fears despite reassurance

May 17 (National Post) - TAIPEI - Taiwan's stock market closed down 3 percent on
Monday, even as the chief executive tried to reassure Taiwan that its economy is
fundamentally sound, with strong demand for export orders and normal production
activity.
The sudden spike in domestic COVID-19 infections to more than 700 over the past
week and the tightening of restrictions in the capital Taipei on Saturday spooked
people accustomed to living a near-normal life with a well-controlled outbreak.

2021/10/04
Translated: Asian airlines rise on hopes for Merck's COVID-19 drug

Asian airlines rose after Merck's experimental Covid-19 drug showed promising results.

 Merck Pills cut off Risk of serious illness or death from Covid-19, study shows;
airline, hotel and related sector stocks climbed in U.S. trade
 Eva Airways shares soar 9.5% in Taiwan
 In Hong Kong, Air China rose 7 percent, China Eastern rose 5.4 percent and
Cathay Pacific rose 5.2 percent.
  Japan Airlines up 4.2%, Qantas up 3.7%, Singapore Airlines up 3.2%

2021/11/08
Asian Travel Stocks Climb as Pfizer Pill Fuels Reopening Hopes

Asian stocks related to travel and tourism rose, following U.S. peers higher, after Pfizer
announced its pill reduced Covid-19 hospitalizations and deaths substantially.

 “This would be a major positive development that could accelerate the return
to pre-pandemic international travel and an increase in business travel,”
Cowen analyst Helane Becker wrote in a note
 China Southern jumped as much as 14%, Air China 10%, Asiana 5.9%, Japan
Airlines 5.4%, ANA 5.3%, Cathay Pacific 4.8%, Singapore Airlines 4.6%, Qantas
4.6%, Korean Air Lines 3.8%
 Shanghai Airport rose as much as 9.1%, Japan Airport Terminal 7.4%, Sydney
Airport 3%
 Among casino/hotel operators, BTG Hotels surged as much as 10%, Sands
China 9%, SJM 8.2%, Galaxy Entertainment 6.7%, Wynn Macau 6%, Paradise
5%, Grand Korea Leisure 4.5%, Hotel Shilla 4%, Shangri-La Asia 3.4%, Genting
Singapore 3.2%
 Among other travel and tourism related names, Samsonite advanced as much
as 15%, Hana Tour Service gained as much as 8.9%, HIS 7.5%, Lotte Tour 6.5%,
Seibu 5.2%, Corporate Travel 3.2%, JR East 2.8%

2021/11/16

Taiwan Airline Stocks Surge Amid Record High Air Freight Report

Shares of  Eva Airways and  China Airlines  jump by about 10% each after Taipei-based
Commercial Time s reports  air freight rate to the U.S. have risen to record high

Eva Airways advances as much as 9.9% to a record high; China Airlines rises by the same
magnitude to its highest since March 2004

 Air freight to the U.S. has risen to a record for urgent shipments due to high
demand: report

2022/02/17

解封題材航空雙雄成交爆量 華航股價續創高
受惠解 封題材發酵，航空雙雄股價大漲，華航（2610）今天 盤中勁揚 7.9%，
來到 31.25 元，續創 23 年來新高；長榮 航（2618）更飆漲 9%，達 34.5 元。

華航盤中成交逾 63 萬張、新台幣 191 億元，居成交 量、金額之冠；長榮航成交

逾 39 萬張、131 億元排第 2。

海運塞港，航空貨運看俏，加上受各國逐步解封， 航空客運也見轉機，帶動航
空股爆量狂飆。 華航去年 12 月貨運營收創新高，達 154.27 億元，今 年 1 月貨
運收入至 127.76 億元，雖出口艙位需求穩健強 勁，維持高裝載率，運價續居高
檔，但元旦假期、春 節影響商品出貨步調，加上去年 12 月基期高，導致 1 月貨
運收入月減約 17%。

長榮航 1 月營收為 106.54 億元，月減 13.87%，年增 59.06%。年末為貨運旺季，

因客戶已經大量出貨，導 致 1 月貨量略減，連帶影響貨運表現較去年 12 月衰
退。
China Airlines' share price continues to hit new highs amid the unblocking theme of
aviation duo
China Airlines (2610) soared sharply thanks to the ferment of unblocking themes,
and China Airlines (2610) surged today 7.9%, to 31.25 yuan, continuing to hit a new
high in 23 years; EVA Air (2618) even soared 9%, reaching 34.5 yuan.

China Airlines sold more than 630,000 tickets and NT$19.1 billion, ranking first in
volume and value; EVA Air ranked second with more than 390,000 tickets and
NT$13.1 billion.

Sea freight is congested, and air cargo is looking good. In addition, as countries
gradually unblock, air passenger transportation also sees a turnaround, driving airline
stocks to explode. In December last year, China Airlines’ cargo revenue hit a record
high of 15.427 billion yuan. In January this year, its cargo revenue reached 12.776
billion yuan. Although the demand for export space is stable and strong, the loading
rate is maintained at a high level, and the freight rate continues to be at a high level.
However, the New Year’s Day holiday and the Spring Festival affect commodities The
pace of shipments, coupled with the high base period in December last year, led to a
monthly decline of about 17% in freight revenue in January.

EVA Air's revenue in January was 10.654 billion yuan, a monthly decrease of 13.87%
and an annual increase of 59.06%. The end of the year is the peak season for freight
transport. As customers have already shipped a large number of goods, the volume
of goods in January decreased slightly, which in turn affected the decline in freight
performance compared with December last year.

2022/04/06

台灣 Covid 病例數創 22 年新高，上

海航班中斷

據《中央新聞議程》援引中央流行病指揮中心（CECC）的消息，擁有世界上許
多最大科技公司的台灣週三報告了 359 例新的 Covid-19 病例，其中 281 例是本
土傳播的，78 例是輸入性的。

據中央社報導，國內單日確診病例總數已連續六天突破 100 例，創今年以來單

日最高。週二，上一個 2022 年高點為 216。

上海新冠疫情的大規模爆發已經擾亂了台灣和中國大陸之間的旅行。據中央社
週二報導，總部位於台北的中華航空公司本週早些時候表示，4 月 5 日至 7 日
期間所有連接上海和台灣城市的客運航班已被取消或重新分配貨運航班。

據 CNA 報導，億萬富翁張氏家族控制的台灣航空公司長榮航空表示，已調整 4
月 5 日至 12 日的航班，上海浦東機場和桃園機場之間的往返航班將只有 3 個。

Taiwan Covid cases hit 22-year high,

Shanghai flights disrupted

Taiwan, home to many of the world's largest tech companies, reported 359 new cases of
Covid-19 on Wednesday, with 281 locally transmitted and 78 new cases, according to the
Central News Agenda, citing the Central Epidemic Command Center (CECC). is imported.

According to the Central News Agency, the total number of confirmed cases in a single
day in China has exceeded 100 for six consecutive days, the highest in a single day this
year. The last 2022 high was 216 on Tuesday.

The massive outbreak of COVID-19 in Shanghai has disrupted travel between Taiwan and
mainland China. Taipei-based China Airlines said earlier this week that all passenger
flights connecting Shanghai and the Taiwanese city between April 5 and 7 have been
canceled or reassigned cargo flights, Central News Agency reported on Tuesday.

EVA Air, the Taiwanese airline controlled by the billionaire Zhang family, said it has
adjusted its flights from April 5 to 12, and there will be only three round-trip flights
between Shanghai Pudong Airport and Taoyuan Airport, CNA reported.

2023/04/27

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EVA AIR Shares Rise; Trading Volume Triples

Eva Airways Corp. rose 4.3%. Trading volume was triple the average for this time of day.

 The shares increased to NT$26.65 from NT$25.55.

 The stock was the best performer among its peers.
 The Taiex Index fell less than 0.1%, while the MSCI AC Asia Pacific Index lost
0.2%.

Market Metrics

 Trading volume was 18.3 million shares, triple the 20-day average of 6.18
million shares for this time of day.
  Of shares that were traded, 69% were at the ask price and 30% were at the
bid.

Market Insights

 Stock declined 27% in the past 52 weeks, compared with a 34% decrease for

the company's Bloomberg peers. The Taiex Index lost 7.6%.
 The shares are up 1.5% in the past five days and rose 0.2% in the past 30
days.
 EVA AIR trades at 16 times its estimated earnings per share for the coming
year. It trades at 20 times trailing EPS.
 The company is priced at 1.6 times book value.
 The company's dividend yield is 2.2% on a trailing 12-month basis and 3.1%
based on Bloomberg Dividend Forecasts for the next 12 months.
 Short interest was equal to 6.5 days of average trading volume. In the
previous two years, the short-interest ratio ranged from 0.1 days to 22 days.
Shares sold short amount to 5.9% of float.

Analyst Activity

 Analysts have four buy, five hold, and one sell recommendations on the stock.
 The consensus rating is 3.6, on a 1-5 scale with 1 meaning strong sell and 5
meaning strong buy.
 The price target of NT$28 represents a 5.1% increase from the last price

2022/09/23

Shipping stocks 0+7 came, aviation duo added flights to cope with unblocked tourism
tide
The new 0+7 system for entry exemption from residence inspection is expected to be
launched on October 13. In response to the retaliatory tourist wave, the aviation duo
has begun planning to increase flights. EVA Air (2618) is expected to fly nearly 200
flights per week in October, and aims to exceed 300 flights per week by the end of
the year , to fully welcome the recovery of passenger transport.

The stock price of the aviation duo continued to fall after unblocking the market
failure
The stock price of airline duo continues to fall after unblocking the market failure
Personal travel, but the airline duo continued yesterday’s unblocking market failure
trend. China Airlines (2610) and EVA Air (2618) both fell by more than 3% intraday.

The legal person believes that due to high inflation in Europe and the United States
leading to sluggish demand in the terminal retail market, coupled with the easing of
the sea freight congestion situation, the cargo business dividend that has supported
airlines’ profits in the past two years has gradually faded, and after the government
announced the unblocking time, aviation stocks may The anticipation of unblocking
themes "the profit is exhausted", and the international oil price is higher than before
the COVID-19, resulting in the lack of more positive themes to support confidence in
the market.

2022/10/14
The opening of the border has brought more profits, and the aviation duo has

fallen by more than 16% in a single week

Stocks and shipping stocks rebounded to party China Airlines, EVA Airlines marginal
people
Only the aviation duo is still struggling under the market and has become a marginal
player in the rebound. The second phase of border unblocking started on the 13th.
Airline duo China Airlines (2610) and EVA Air (2618) were pressured by flight price
competition. On Thursday, sales surged to the daily limit. In this regard, Bank of
America Securities pointed out that the climax of unblocking surprises has passed,
and the opening of the border has exhausted the benefits. The legal person believes
that because the global epidemic alert has not yet been lifted, international air ticket
prices have begun to drop, and countries have different moves to unblock, and they
are pessimistic about the stocks of the airline duo, thinking that the time of high
ticket prices "can't go back." As for the cargo business, which became the savior of
operations during the epidemic, the legal person also pessimistically estimates that
the cargo revenue of China Airlines and EVA Air will decrease by 8% and 9% this year,
and the annual decline will expand to 49% and 59% next year. Driven by the sharp
rise in U.S. stocks today, the weighted index rebounded by more than 400 points. The
stocks on the market were all happy, and the aviation duo was still in the water
amidst the bad news.

Wuhan Pneumonia Affects China Airlines EVA Air's February Revenue Falls Below Ten
Billion
Affected by Wuhan pneumonia, the revenue of China Airlines and EVA Air fell below
the 10 billion yuan mark in February, and the annual expenditure fell by double
digits. Among them, China Airlines' February revenue hit a nine-year low. The legal
person believes that if the Wuhan pneumonia epidemic alert is not lifted, it is
expected that the revenue in March will be ugly.

China Airlines’ February revenue was NT$9.342 billion, down 24.9% year-on-year and
36.7% month-on-month, the lowest since February 2011. Affected by the Wuhan
pneumonia epidemic, China Airlines recently issued a letter to employees stating that
23% of its flights in February will be canceled, with a total of nearly 1,400 flights.
Revenue hit a nine-year low in February amid multiple flight cancellations and the
cancellation of some European and American transoceanic routes. China Airlines'
total revenue from January to February this year was 24.110 billion yuan, down 9.7%
from the same period last year.

EVA Air's February revenue was 8.853 billion yuan, which also fell below the 10
billion yuan mark, a new low since November 2012, a year-on-year decrease of
34.6%, and a month-on-month decrease of 39.3%.
Affected by the epidemic, Evergreen canceled most of its flights in China, and Japan,
South Korea and Northeast Asia routes were also forced to adjust flights.

EVA Air’s cumulative revenue in the first two months of this year was 23.447 billion
yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.6%.

China Airlines’ little Golden Rooster Tiger Airways also recently announced that its
revenue in February was 584 million yuan, a record low since its establishment, a
year-on-year decrease of 37.2% and a month-on-month decrease of 35.3%.
According to Tigerair's announcement, due to the impact of the Wuhan pneumonia
epidemic, Tigerair has canceled a total of 500 flights on Macau routes from February
4th to April 30th, which will account for 5.3% of the annual flight volume.

成本大增使 2Q22 獲利低於預期。長榮航 2Q22 合併營收年增 38%，營收優

於我們預估，主因 2Q22 雖中國疫情爆發但有利貨運運價上漲，在貨運價格仍
維持高檔的情況下，貨運營收年增 39%至 268 億元。但 2Q22 燃油價格大幅
上漲，使燃油成本占成本費用比重提高至 38%，營業利益率降至 7.4%，也
使獲利降至 18 億元，單季 EPS 為 0.36 元。
2Q22 earnings missed on surging costs. 2Q22 consolidated sales rose 38% YoY,
beating our forecast, mainly as freight rates picked up amid the pandemic in China.
With
freight rates remaining high, cargo transport sales increased 39% YoY to NT$26.8bn.
However, operating margin sank to 7.4%, leading to lower-than-expected EPS of
NT$0.36, as the weighting of fuel in total expenses rose to 38% in the wake of surging
oil prices in 2Q22

The market is positive on Eva Airways’ passenger revenue surge post-pandemic.

However,
looking at the performance of airlines in countries that were early to reopen their
borders
(e.g. US, Singapore), it took them an average of 1-1.5 years for quarterly international
passenger revenue to return to pre-pandemic levels.