Phil Trans 08 Pretty

ARTICLE IN PRESS
Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

1 doi:10.1098/rstb.2007.2163 65
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Agricultural sustainability: concepts, 69
70
7 principles and evidence 71
8 72
9 Jules Pretty* 73
10 74
11
Department of Biological Sciences, University of Essex, Colchester CO4 3SQ, UK 75
12 Concerns about sustainability in agricultural systems centre on the need to develop technologies and 76
13 practices that do not have adverse effects on environmental goods and services, accessible to and 77
14 effective for farmers and lead to improvements in food productivity. Despite great progress in 78
15 agricultural productivity in the past half-century, with crop and livestock productivity strongly driven 79
16 by increased use of fertilizers, irrigation water, agricultural machinery, pesticides and land, it would 80
17 be over-optimistic to assume that these relationships will remain linear in the future. New approaches 81
18 are needed that will integrate biological and ecological processes into food production, minimize the 82
19 use of those non-renewable inputs that cause harm to the environment or to the health of farmers and 83
20 consumers, make productive use of the knowledge and skills of farmers, so substituting human capital 84
21 for costly external inputs and make productive use of people’s collective capacities to work together to 85
22 solve common agricultural and natural resource problems, such as for pest, watershed, irrigation, 86
23 forest and credit management. 87
24 These principles help to build important capital assets for agricultural systems: natural; social; 88
25 human; physical; and financial capital. Improving natural capital is a central aim, and dividends can 89
26 come from making the best use of the genotypes (G) of crops and animals and the ecological (Ec) 90
27 conditions under which they are grown or raised. Agricultural sustainability suggests a focus on both 91
28 genotype improvements through the full range of modern biological approaches and improved 92
29 understanding of the benefits of ecological and agronomic management, manipulation and redesign. 93
30 The ecological management of agroecosystems that addresses energy flows, nutrient cycling, 94
31 population-regulating mechanisms and system resilience can lead to the redesign of agriculture at a 95
32 landscape scale. Sustainable agriculture outcomes can be positive for food productivity, reduced 96
33 pesticide use and carbon balances. Significant challenges, however, remain to develop national and 97
34 international policies to support the wider emergence of more sustainable forms of agricultural 98
35 production across both industrialized and developing countries. 99
36 100
37
Keywords: environmental goods and services; natural capital; social capital; agroecology; 101
38
carbon sequestration; pesticides 102
39 103
40 104
41 1. THE CONTEXT FOR AGRICULTURAL and addresses many wider economic, social and 105
42 SUSTAINABILITY environmental outcomes. 106
43 The interest in the sustainability of agricultural and In recent decades, there has been remarkable growth 107
44 food systems can be traced to environmental concerns in agricultural production, with increases in food 108
45 that began to appear in the 1950s–1960s. However, production across the world since the beginning of 109
46 ideas about sustainability date back at least to the oldest the 1960s. Since then, aggregate world food production 110
47 surviving writings from China, Greece and Rome has grown by 145%. In Africa, it rose by 140%, in Latin 111
48 (Cato 1979; Hesiod 1988; Conway 1997; Li Wenhua America by almost 200% and in Asia by 280%. The 112
49 Q2 2001; Pretty 2002; 2005a). Today, concerns about greatest increases have been in China, where a fivefold 113
50 sustainability centre on the need to develop agricultural increase occurred, mostly during the 1980s–1990s. In 114
51 technologies and practices that: (i) do not have adverse industrialized countries, production started from a 115
52 effects on the environment (partly because the higher base; yet it still doubled in the USA over 40 years 116
53 environment is an important asset for farming), (ii) and grew by 68% in Western Europe ( FAO 2005). 117
54 are accessible to and effective for farmers, and (iii) lead Over the same period, world population has grown 118
55 to both improvements in food productivity and have from three to more than six billion imposing an 119
56 positive side effects on environmental goods and increasing impact on the human footprint on the 120
57 services. Sustainability in agricultural systems incor- Earth as consumption patterns change (Kitzes et al. 121
58 porates concepts of both resilience (the capacity of 2007; Pretty 2007). Again, though, per capita agricul- 122
59 systems to buffer shocks and stresses) and persistence tural production has outpaced population growth 123
60 (the capacity of systems to continue over long periods) (Hazell & Wood 2007), for each person today, there 124
61 is an additional 25% more food compared with 1960. 125
62 These aggregate figures, though, hide important 126
63 *jpretty@essex.ac.uk regional differences. In Asia and Latin America, per 127
64 One contribution of 16 to a Theme Issue ‘Sustainable agriculture. I’. capita food production increased by 76 and 28%, 128
1 This journal is q 2007 The Royal Society
RSTB 20072163—25/6/2007—21:06—THIAGU—278760—XML RSB – pp. 1–20

ARTICLE IN PRESS
2 J. Pretty Principle of agricultural sustainability
129 6 outnumber the hungry (WHO 1998). Diet-related 193

130 illness now has severe and costly public health 194
131 urban consequences (Kenkel & Manning 1999; Ferro Luzzi 195
5
132 rural and James 2000). According to the comprehensive 196
133 Eurodiet (2001) study, ‘disabilities associated with high 197
4
134 intakes of saturated fat and inadequate intakes of 198
135 vegetable and fruit, together with a sedentary lifestyle, 199
billion
136 3 exceed the cost of tobacco use’. Some problems arise 200
137 from nutritional deficiencies of iron, iodide, folic acid, 201
138 2 vitamin D and omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids, 202
139 but most are due to excess consumption of energy and 203
140 fat (causing obesity), sodium as salt (high blood 204
1
141 pressure), saturated and trans fats (heart disease) and 205
142 refined sugars (diabetes and dental caries; Key et al. 206
143
0 207
2002; Frumkin 2005).
50
60
70
80
90
00
10
20
30
144 An important change in the world food system will 208
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
145
20 209
Figure 1. Rural and urban world population (1950–2030; come from the increased consumption of livestock
146 products (Fitzhugh 1998; Delgado et al. 1999; Smil 210
from UN (2005)).
147 2000). Meat demand is expected to rise rapidly with 211
148 respectively. Africa, though, has fared badly with food 212
economic growth and this will change many farming
149 production per person 10% lower today than in 1960. 213
systems. Livestock are important in mixed production
150 China, again, performs best, with a trebling of per capita 214
systems, using foods and by-products that would not
151 215
food production over the same period. These agricul- have been consumed by humans. But increasingly
152 216
tural production gains have lifted millions out of animals are raised intensively and fed with cheap
153 217
poverty and provided a platform for rural and urban though energetically inefficient cereals and oils. In
154 218
economic growth in many parts of the world. industrialized countries, 73% of cereals are fed to
155 219
However, these advances in aggregate productivity animals; in developing countries, some 37% are used in
156 220
have not brought reductions in the incidence of hunger this way. Currently, per capita annual demand in
157 221
for all. In the early twenty-first century, there are still industrialized countries is 550 kg of cereal and 78 kg
158 222
more than 800 million people hungry and lacking of meat. By contrast, in developing countries, it is only
159 223
adequate access to food. A third are in East and 260 kg of cereal and 30 kg of meat.
160 224
Southeast Asia, another third in South Asia, a quarter At the same time as these recent changes in
161 225
in sub-Saharan Africa and 5% each in Latin America/ agricultural productivity, consumer behaviour over
162 226
Caribbean and in North Africa/Near East. None- food (Smith in press) and the political economy of
163 227
164
theless, there has been progress, as incidence of farming and food (Goodman & Watts 1997), agricul- 228
165
undernourishment was 960 million in 1970, compris- tural systems are now recognized to be a significant 229
166
ing a third of all people in developing countries at source of environmental harm (Tilman 1999; Pretty et 230
167
the time. al. 2000; MEA 2005). Since the early 1960s, the total 231
168 Despite this progress in food output, it is probable agricultural area has expanded by 11% from 4.5 to 5 232
169 that food-related ill health will remain widespread for billion ha and arable area from 1.27 to 1.4 billion ha. In 233
170 many people. As world population continues to industrialized countries, agricultural area has fallen by 234
171 increase, until at least the mid-twenty-first century 3%, but has risen by 21% in developing countries 235
172 (UNPD 2005), the absolute demand for food will also (figure 2a). Livestock production has also increased 236
173 increase. Increasing incomes will also mean that people with a worldwide fourfold increase in numbers of 237
174 will have more purchasing power and this will increase chickens, twofold increase in pigs and 40–50% increase 238
175 the demand for food. But as diets change, demand for in numbers of cattle, sheep and goats (figure 2b). 239
176 the types of food will also shift radically, with large During this period, the intensity of production on 240
177 numbers of people going through the nutrition agricultural lands has also risen substantially (Hazell & 241
178 transition. In particular, increasing urbanization Wood 2007). The area under irrigation and number of 242
179 (figure 1) means people are more likely to adopt new agricultural machines has grown by approximately 243
180 diets, particularly consuming more meat, fats and twofold and the consumption of all fertilizers by 244
181 refined cereals, and fewer traditional cereals, vegetables fourfold (nitrogen fertilizers by sevenfold; 245
182 and fruits (Popkin 1998). figure 2c,d ). The use of pesticides in agriculture has 246
183 As a result of these transitions towards calorie-rich also increased dramatically and now amounts to some 247
184 diets, obesity, hypertension and type II diabetes have 2.56 billion kg yrK1. In the early twenty-first century, 248
185 emerged as serious threats to health in most industrial- the annual value of the global market was US $25 249
186 ized countries (Popkin 1998; WHO 1998; Nestle 2003; billion, of which some $3 billion of sales was in 250
187 Lang & Heasman 2004). A total of 20–25% of adults developing countries ( Pretty 2005b). Herbicides 251
188 across Europe and North America are now classed as account for 49% of use, insecticides 25%, fungicides 252
189 clinically obese (body mass index greater than 22% and others approximately 3% (table 1). A third of 253
190 30 kg mK2). In some developing countries, including the world market by value is in the USA, which 254
191 Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Chile, Ghana, represents 22% of active ingredient use. In the USA, 255
192 Mexico, Peru and Tunisia, overweight people now though, large amounts of pesticide are used in the 256

ARTICLE IN PRESS
Q1 Principle of agricultural sustainability J. Pretty 3
257 (a) (b) 321

1.3 4.5
258 industrialized cattle and buffaloes 322
259 countries (1961 = 1.03 billion) 323
4.0
260 (1961 = 1.89 billion ha) 324
proportion of livestock numbers

chickens
proportion of agricultural area
1.2
compared with 1961 (= 1)

261 developing (1961=3.89 billion) 325
3.5
262 countries pigs (1961 = 0.46 billion) 326
(1961 = 2.63 billion ha)
263 3.0 sheep and 327
1.1
264 goats 328
265 2.5 329
266 330
1.0 2.0
267 331
268 332
269
1.5 333
0.9
270 334
1.0
271 335
272 0.8 0.5 336
273 337
274 (c) (d) 338
275 2.5 8 339
proportion of irrigated area and machinery
276 2.3 340

7
proportion of fertilizer consumption

277 341
278 2.1 342
compated with 1961 (= 1)

279 1.9 343
280 5 344
1.7
281 345
282 1.5 4 346
283 1.3 347
3
284 348
285 1.1 2 all fertilizers 349
irrigation area
(1961 = 31.2 Mt)
286 0.9 (1961 = 139 Mha) 350
1 nitrogenous fertilizers
287 tractors, harvesters and 351
0.7 threshers (1961 = 13.6 M)
(1961 = 11.6 Mt)
288 352
0
289 0.5 353
290 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 354
291 Figure 2. (a) Agricultural area (1961–2002; from FAO (2005)). (b) Head of livestock, world (1961–2004; from FAO (2005)). 355
292 (c) Irrigated area and agricultural machinery, world (1961—2002; from FAO (2005)). (d ) World fertilizer consumption 356
293 (1961–2002; from FAO (2005)). 357
294 358
295 home/garden (17% by value) and in industrial, Table 1. World and US use of pesticide active ingredients 359
296 commercial and government settings (13% by value). (mean for 1998–1999). (Adapted from Pretty & Hine (2005); 360
These factors of production have had a direct impact using EPA (2001) and OECD (2001).)
297 361
298 on world food production (figure 3a–e). There are clear 362
and significant relationships between fertilizer con- world US pesticide
299 363
pesticide use use (million
300 sumption, number of agricultural machines, irrigated 364
pesticide use (million kg a.i.) % kg a.i.) %
301 area, agricultural land area and arable area with total 365
302 world food production (comprising all cereals, coarse herbicides 948 37 246 44 366
303 grains, pulses, roots and tubers, and oil crops). The insecticides 643 25 52 9 367
304 inefficient use of some of these inputs has, however, led fungicides 251 10 37 7 368
305 to considerable environmental harm. Increased agri- othera 721 28 219b 40 369
306 cultural area contributes substantially to the loss of total 2563 100 554 100 370
307 habitats, associated biodiversity and their valuable a
Other includes nematicides, fumigants, rodenticides, molluscicides, 371
308 environmental services ( MEA 2005; Scherr & aquatic and fish/bird pesticides, and other chemicals used as pesticides 372
309 (e.g. sulphur, petroleum products). 373
McNeely 2007). Approximately 30–80% of nitrogen b
Other in the US includes 150 million kg of sulphur, petroleum used
310 applied to farmland escapes to contaminate water as pesticides. 374
311 systems and the atmosphere as well as increasing the 375
312 incidence of some disease vectors (Smil 2001; Victor & These graphs clearly show the past effectiveness of 376
313 Q3 Reuben 2002; Pretty et al. 2003a; Townsend et al. these factors of production in increasing agricultural 377
314 2003; Giles 2005; Goulding et al. 2007). Irrigation productivity. One argument is to suggest that the 378
315
water is often used inefficiently and causes water- persistent world food crisis indicates a need for 379
316
logging and salinization, as well as diverts water from substantially greater use of these inputs (Avery 1995; 380
317 Q4 Cassman et al. 2002; Trewevas 2002; Green et al. 2005; 381
other domestic and industrial users; and agricultural
318
machinery has increased the consumption of fossil fuels Tripp in press). But it would be both simplistic and 382
319
in food production (Leach 1976; Stout 1998). optimistic to assume that all these relationships will 383
320 remain linear in the future and that gains will continue 384

ARTICLE IN PRESS
385 (a) (b) 449

386 4.5 450
food production (cereals, coarse grains,
387 tubers, oil crops; billion tonnes) 451

388 4.0 452
389 453
390 3.5 454
pulses, roots and
391 455
3.0
392 456
393 R 2 = 0.9009 457
2.5 R 2 = 0.98
394 458
395 2.0 459
396 460
397 1.5 461
398 462
399 1.0 463
10 15 20 25 30 35
400 464
401 total tractors, harvesters and threshers 465
402 (c) (d) 466
403 4.5 467
food production (cereals, coarse grains,
404 468
tubers, oil crops; billion tonnes)
405 4.0 469

406 470
3.5
pulses, roots and
407 471
408 472
3.0
409 473
410 2.5 R 2 = 0.9009 R 2 = 0.98 474
411 475
412 2.0 476
413 477
414 1.5 478
415 479
416
1.0 480
417
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 4.4 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.2 481
418 fertilizer consumption (Mt yr –1) agricultural land area (billion ha) 482
419 Figure 3. (a) Relationship between all fertilizers applied and world plant food production (1961–2002; from FAO (2005)). 483
420 (b) Relationship between world agricultural machinery and world plant food production (1961–2002; from FAO (2005)). 484
421 (c) Relationship between world irrigation area and world plant food production (1961–2002; from FAO (2005)). (d ) Relationship 485
422 between world agricultural land area and world plant food production (1961–2002; from FAO (2005)). 486
423 487
424 at the previous rates ( Tilman 1999). This would 40 488
425 assume a continuing supply of these factors and inputs, 489
high fertility
426 and that the environmental costs of their use will be 35 490
medium fertility
427 small. There is also growing evidence to suggest that 491
30 low fertility
428 this approach to agricultural growth has reached 492
429 critical environmental limits, and that the aggregate 493
25
430 costs in terms of lost or foregone benefits from 494
billion
431 environmental services are too great for the world to 20 495
432 bear (Ruttan 1999; MEA 2005; Kitzes et al. 2007). 496
433 The costs of these environmental problems are often 15 497
434 called externalities as they do not appear in any formal 498
435 accounting systems. Yet many agricultural systems 10 499
436 themselves are now suffering because key natural assets 500
437 that they require to be plentiful are being undermined 5
501
438 or diminished. 0
502
439 Agricultural systems in all parts of the world will 503
19 0
20 5
00
20 5
20 0
75
21 0
21 5
50
22 5
22 0
22 5
50
23 5
00
5
7
2
5
0
2
7
0
2
have to make improvements. In many, the challenge is

19
20
21
21
22
440 504
441 to increase the food production to solve immediate Figure 4. World population 1950–2300 (from UN, 2005). 505
442 problems of hunger. In others, the focus will be more 506
443 on adjustments that maintain food production while high-fertility projection by the UN (2005) is unlikely to 507
444 increasing the flow of environmental goods and arise, as shifts towards lower fertility are already 508
445 services. World population is set to continue to increase occurring in many countries worldwide and so there 509
446 for approximately another 40 years to approximately are very real prospects of world population eventually 510
447 2040–2050, and then is likely to stabilize or fall falling over one to two centuries after the maximum is 511
448 owing to changes in fertility patterns (figure 4). The reached. This suggests that the agricultural and food 512

ARTICLE IN PRESS
513 challenge is likely to be more acute in the next half- sustainability can be seen as both relative and case 577
514 century, and thereafter qualitatively change according dependent and implies a balance between a range of 578
515 people’s aggregate consumption patterns. agricultural and environmental goods and services. 579
516 As a more sustainable agriculture seeks to make the 580
517 best use of nature’s goods and services, technologies 581
518
2. WHAT IS SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE? and practices must be locally adapted and fitted to 582
519
What, then, do we now understand by agricultural place. These are most likely to emerge from new 583
520
sustainability? Many different expressions have come to configurations of social capital, comprising relations of 584
521
be used to imply greater sustainability in some trust embodied in new social organizations, new 585
522
agricultural systems over prevailing ones (both pre- horizontal and vertical partnerships between insti- 586
523
industrial and industrialized). These include biody- tutions, and human capital comprising leadership, 587
524
namic, community based, ecoagriculture, ecological, ingenuity, management skills and capacity to innovate. 588
525
environmentally sensitive, extensive, farm fresh, free Agricultural systems with high levels of social and 589
526
range, low input, organic, permaculture, sustainable human assets are more able to innovate in the face of 590
527
and wise use (Pretty 1995; Conway 1997; NRC 2000; uncertainty (Chambers et al. 1989; Uphoff 1998; 591
528
McNeely & Scherr 2003; Clements & Shrestha 2004; Bunch & Lopez 1999; Olsson & Folke 2001; Pretty & 592
529
Cox et al. 2004; Gliessman 2005). There is continuing Ward 2001). This suggests that there likely to be 593
530
and intense debate about whether agricultural systems many pathways towards agricultural sustainability, 594
531
using some of these terms can qualify as sustainable and further implies that no single configuration of 595
532
(Balfour 1943; Lampkin & Padel 1994; Altieri 1995; technologies, inputs and ecological management is 596
533
Trewevas 2002). more likely to be widely applicable than the other. 597
534
Systems high in sustainability can be taken as those Agricultural sustainability implies the need to fit these 598
535
that aim to make the best use of environmental goods factors to the specific circumstances of different 599
536
and services while not damaging these assets (Altieri agricultural systems. 600
537
1995; Pretty 1995, 1998, 2005a,b; Conway 1997; A common, though erroneous, assumption about 601
538
Hinchcliffe et al. 1999; NRC 2000; Li Wenhua 2001; agricultural sustainability is that it implies a net 602
539
Jackson & Jackson 2002; Tilman et al. 2002; Uphoff reduction in input use, thus making such systems 603
540
2002; McNeely & Scherr 2003; Gliessman 2004, 2005; essentially extensive (they require more land to produce 604
541
Swift et al. 2004; Tomich et al. 2004; MEA 2005; the same amount of food). Recent empirical evidence 605
542
Scherr & McNeely 2007; Kesevan & Swaminathan in shows that successful agricultural sustainability initiat- 606
543
press). The key principles for sustainability are to: ives and projects arise from shifts in the factors of 607
544 agricultural production (e.g. from use of fertilizers to 608
545 (i) integrate biological and ecological processes nitrogen-fixing legumes; from pesticides to emphasis 609
546 such as nutrient cycling, nitrogen fixation, soil on natural enemies; from ploughing to zero-tillage). 610
547 regeneration, allelopathy, competition, preda- A better concept than extensive is one that centres on 611
548 tion and parasitism into food production intensification of resources, making better use of 612
549 processes, existing resources (e.g. land, water, biodiversity) and 613
550 (ii) minimize the use of those non-renewable inputs technologies (Conway & Pretty 1991; Pretty et al. 614
551 that cause harm to the environment or to the 2000; Buttel 2003; Tegtmeier & Duffy 2004). The 615
552 health of farmers and consumers, critical question centres on the ‘type of intensification’. 616
553 (iii) make productive use of the knowledge and skills Intensification using natural, social and human 617
554 of farmers, thus improving their self-reliance capital assets, combined with the use of best 618
555 and substituting human capital for costly available technologies and inputs (best genotypes 619
556 external inputs, and and best ecological management) that minimize or 620
557 (iv) make productive use of people’s collective eliminate harm to the environment, can be termed 621
558 capacities to work together to solve common ‘sustainable intensification’. 622
559 agricultural and natural resource problems, 623
560 such as for pest, watershed, irrigation, forest 624
561 and credit management. 3. CAPITAL ASSETS FOR AGRICULTURAL 625
562 SYSTEMS 626
563 The idea of agricultural sustainability, though, does What makes agriculture unique as an economic sector 627
564 not mean ruling out any technologies or practices on is that it directly affects many of the very assets on 628
565 ideological grounds. If a technology works to improve which it relies for success. Agricultural systems at all 629
566 productivity for farmers and does not cause undue levels rely on the value of services flowing from the total 630
567 harm to the environment, then it is likely to have some stock of assets that they influence and control, and five 631
568 sustainability benefits. Agricultural systems emphasiz- types of asset, natural, social, human, physical and 632
569 ing these principles also tend to be multifunctional financial capital, are now recognized as being import- 633
570 within landscapes and economies (Dobbs & Pretty ant. There are, though, some advantages and misgiv- 634
571 2004; MEA 2005). They jointly produce food and ings with the use of the term capital. On the one hand, 635
572 other goods for farmers and markets, but also capital implies an asset, and assets should be cared for, 636
573 contribute to a range of valued public goods, such as protected and accumulated over long periods. On the 637
574 clean water, wildlife and habitats, carbon sequestra- other hand, capital can imply easy measurability and 638
575 tion, flood protection, groundwater recharge, land- transferability. Since the value of something can be 639
576 scape amenity value and leisure/tourism. In this way, assigned a monetary value, then it can appear not to 640

ARTICLE IN PRESS
641 matter if it is lost, as the required money could simply from outcomes to inputs ( Worster 1993). Thus, 705
642 be allocated to purchase another asset or to transfer it sustainable agricultural systems tend to have a positive 706
643 from elsewhere. But nature and its wider values is not effect on natural, social and human capital, while 707
644 so easily replaceable as a commodity (Coleman 1988; unsustainable ones feedback to deplete these assets, 708
645 Q5 Ostrom 1990; Putnam et al. 1993; Flora & Flora 1996; leaving fewer for future generations. For example, an 709
646 Q6 Benton 1998; Scoones 1998; Uphoff 1998, 2002; agricultural system that erodes soil while producing 710
647 Q7 Costanza et al. 1999; Pretty 2003). Nonetheless, food externalizes costs that others must bear. But one 711
648 terms such as natural, social and human capital are that sequesters carbon in soils through organic matter 712
649 useful in helping to shape concepts around basic accumulation helps to mediate climate change. Simi- 713
650 questions such as what is agriculture for and what larly, a diverse agricultural system that enhances 714
651 system works best. The five capitals are defined in the on-farm wildlife for pest control contributes to wider 715
652 following ways: stocks of biodiversity, while simplified modernized 716
653 systems that eliminate wildlife do not. Agricultural 717
654 (i) Natural capital produces environmental goods systems that offer labour-absorption opportunities, 718
655 and services and is the source of food (both through resource improvements or value-added activi- 719
656 farmed and harvested or caught from the wild), ties, can boost local economies and help to reverse 720
657 wood and fibre; water supply and regulation; rural-to-urban migration patterns (Carney 1998; 721
658 treatment, assimilation and decomposition of Dasgupta 1998; Ellis 2000; Morison et al. 2005; Pretty 722
659 wastes; nutrient cycling and fixation; soil et al. 2006). 723
660 formation; biological control of pests; climate Any activities that lead to improvements in these 724
661 regulation; wildlife habitats; storm protection renewable capital assets thus make a contribution 725
662 and flood control; carbon sequestration; polli- towards sustainability. However, agricultural sustain- 726
663 nation; and recreation and leisure (Costanza ability does not require that all assets are improved at 727
664 et al. 1999; MEA 2005). the same time. One agricultural system that contributes 728
665 (ii) Social capital yields a flow of mutually beneficial more to these capital assets than the other can be said to 729
666 collective action, contributing to the cohesive- be more sustainable, but there may still be trade-offs 730
667 ness of people in their societies. The social assets with one asset increasing as the other falls. In practice, 731
668 comprising social capital include norms, values though, there are usually strong links between changes 732
669 and attitudes that predispose people to co- in natural, social and human capital (Pretty 2003), 733
670 operate; relations of trust, reciprocity and with agricultural systems having many potential effects 734
671 obligations; and common rules and sanctions on all three. 735
672 mutually agreed or handed down. These are Agriculture is, therefore, fundamentally multifunc- 736
673 connected and structured in networks and tional. It jointly produces many unique non-food 737
674 groups ( Flora & Flora 1996; Cramb & Culasero functions that cannot be produced by other economic 738
675 2003; Pretty 2003). sectors so efficiently. Clearly, a key policy challenge, for 739
676 (iii) Human capital is the total capability residing in both industrialized and developing countries, is to find 740
677 individuals, based on their stock of knowledge ways to maintain and enhance food production. But a 741
678 skills, health and nutrition (Orr 1992; Byerlee key question is: can this be done while seeking to both 742
679 Q8 1998; Leeuwis 2004; Lieblin et al. 2004). It is improve the positive side effects and eliminate the 743
680 enhanced by access to services that provide, negative ones? It will not be easy, as past agricultural 744
681 such as schools, medical services and adult development has tended to ignore both the multi- 745
682 training. People’s productivity is increased by functionality of agriculture and the considerable 746
683 their capacity to interact with productive external costs. 747
684 technologies and other people. Leadership and 748
685 organizational skills are particularly important 749
686 in making other resources more valuable. 4. SIDE EFFECTS AND EXTERNALITIES 750
687 (iv) Physical capital is the store of human-made There are surprisingly few data on the environmental 751
688 material resources and comprises buildings such and health costs imposed by agriculture on other 752
689 as housing and factories, market infrastructure, sectors and interests. Agriculture can negatively affect 753
690 irrigation works, roads and bridges, tools and the environment through overuse of natural resources 754
691 tractors, communications and energy and trans- as inputs or their use as a sink for pollution. Such 755
692 portation systems, that make labour more effects are called negative externalities because they are 756
693 productive. usually non-market effects and therefore their costs are 757
694 (v) Financial capital is more of an accounting not part of market prices. Negative externalities are one 758
695 concept, as it serves as a facilitating role rather of the classic causes of market failure whereby the 759
696 than as a source of productivity in and of itself. It polluter does not pay the full costs of their actions, 760
697 represents accumulated claims on goods and and therefore these costs are called external costs 761
698 services, built up through financial systems that (Baumol & Oates 1988; Pretty et al. 2000, 2003a; 762
699 gather savings and issue credit such as pensions, Dobbs & Pretty 2004; Moss 2007). 763
700 remittances, welfare payments, grants and Externalities in the agricultural sector have at least 764
701 subsidies. four features: (i) their costs are often neglected, (ii) they 765
702 often occur with a time lag, (iii) they often damage 766
703 As agricultural systems shape the very assets on groups whose interests are not well represented in 767
704 which they rely for inputs, a vital feedback loop occurs political or decision-making processes, and (iv) the 768

ARTICLE IN PRESS
769 identity of the source of the externality is not always a move towards sustainability. Agricultural sustain- 833
770 known. For example, farmers generally have few ability is thus partly a matter of judgement, which in 834
771 incentives to prevent some pesticides escaping to turn depends on the comparators and baselines chosen. 835
772 water bodies, to the atmosphere and to nearby natural One system may be said to be more sustainable relative 836
773 systems as they transfer the full cost of cleaning up the to another if its negative externalities are lower. 837
774 environmental consequences to society at large. In the Monetary criteria do, though, only capture some of 838
775 same way, pesticide manufacturers do not pay the full the values of agricultural systems and the resources 839
776 cost of all their products, as they do not have to pay for upon which they impinge (Carson 2000), and so 840
777 any adverse side effects that may occur. choices may depend on wider questions about the 841
778 Partly as a result of lack of information, there is little sustainability of farm practices (on farm, in field) and 842
779 agreement on the economic costs of externalities in the sustainability of whole landscapes (interactions 843
780 agriculture. Some authors suggest that the current between agricultural and wild habitats; Green et al. 844
781 system of economic calculations grossly underesti- 2005; Shennan in press; Waage & Mumford in press; 845
782 mates the current and future value of natural capital Wade et al. in press). 846
783 (Abramovitz 1997; Costanza et al. 1997; Daily 1997; 847
784 MEA 2005). However, such valuation of ecosystem 848
785 services remains controversial owing to methodological 849
786 and measurement problems (Georgiou et al. 1998; 5. IMPROVING NATURAL CAPITAL FOR 850
787 Hanley et al. 1998; Carson 2000; Farrow et al. 2000; AGROECOSYSTEMS 851
788 Pretty et al. 2003a) and the role monetary values have Agricultural sustainability emphasizes the potential 852
789 in influencing public opinions and policy decisions. benefits that arise from making the best use of both 853
790 What has become clear in recent years is that the genotypes of crops and animals and their agroecologi- 854
791 success of modern agriculture has masked some cal management. Agricultural sustainability does not, 855
792 significant negative externalities, with environmental therefore, mean ruling out any technologies or 856
793 and health problems documented and recently costed practices on ideological grounds (e.g. genetically 857
794 for Ecuador, China, Germany, the Philippines, the UK modified or organic crops)—provided they improve 858
795 and the USA (Pingali & Roger 1995; Crissman et al. biological and/or economic productivity for farmers 859
796 1998; Waibel et al. 1999; Pretty et al. 2000, 2001, 2003a, and do not harm the environment ( NRC 2000; Pretty 860
797 2005; Cuyno et al. 2001; Norse et al. 2001; Buttel 2003; Q9 2001; Uphoff 2003; Nuffield Council on Bioethics 861
798 Tegtmeier & Duffy 2004; Sherwood et al. 2005; Zhao 2004). Agricultural sustainability, therefore, empha- 862
799 et al. in press). These environmental costs begin to sizes the potential dividends that can come from 863
800 change conclusions about which agricultural systems making the best use of the genotypes (G) of crops 864
801 are the most efficient and suggest that alternatives which and animals (Dennis et al. 2007; Shennan in press; 865
802 reduce externalities should be sought. Witcombe et al. in press) and the ecological (Ec) 866
803 Examples of costs in developing countries include conditions under which they are grown or raised. The 867
804 that in the Philippines, where agricultural systems that outcome is a result of this G!Ec interaction (Khush 868
805 do not use pesticides result in greater net social benefits et al. 1998). Agricultural sustainability suggests a focus 869
806 owing to the reduction in illnesses among farmers on both genotype improvements through the full range 870
807 and their families, and the associated treatment costs of modern biological approaches, as well as improved 871
808 (Rola & Pingali 1993; Pingali & Roger 1995). In understanding of the benefits of ecological and 872
809 China, the externalities of pesticides used in rice agronomic management, manipulation and redesign 873
810 systems cause $1.4 billion of costs per year through (Collard & Mackill 2007; Flint & Wooliams 2007; 874
811 health costs to people, and adverse effects on both on- Thomson in press). 875
812 and off-farm biodiversity ( Norse et al. 2001). In Agricultural systems, or agroecosystems, are 876
813 Ecuador, annual mortality in the remote highlands amended ecosystems (Conway 1985; Gliessman 877
814 due to pesticides is among the highest reported 1998, 2005; Olsson & Folke 2001; Dalgaard et al. 878
815 anywhere in the world at 21 people per 100 000 2003; Odum & Barrett 2004; Swift et al. 2004) that 879
816 people, and so the economic benefits of integrated have a variety of different properties (table 2). Modern 880
817 pest management (IPM)-based systems that eliminate agricultural systems have amended some of these 881
818 these effects are increasingly beneficial (Sherwood et al. properties to increase productivity. Sustainable agroe- 882
819 2005). In the UK, agricultural externalities have been cosystems, by contrast, have to seek to shift some of 883
820 calculated to be some £1.5 billion per year in the late these properties towards natural systems without 884
821 1990s, a cost that is greater than net farm income significantly trading off productivity. Modern agroeco- 885
822 (Pretty et al. 2000, 2001). These, though, are exceeded systems have, for example, tended towards high 886
823 by the environmental costs of transporting food from through-flow systems, with energy supplied by fossil 887
824 farm to retail outlet to place of consumption—these fuels directed out of the system (either deliberately for 888
825 ‘food miles’ in the UK result in a further £3.8 billion of harvests or accidentally through side effects). For a 889
826 environmental costs per year (Pretty et al. 2005). transition towards sustainability, renewable sources of 890
827 These data suggest that all types of agricultural energy need to be maximized and some energy flows 891
828 systems impose some kinds of costs on the environ- directed to fuel essential internal tropic interactions 892
829 ment. It is, therefore, impossible to draw a boundary (e.g. to soil organic matter or to weeds for arable 893
830 between what is sustainable and what is not. If the birds) so as to maintain other ecosystem functions 894
831 external costs are high and can be reduced by the (Rydberg & Jansén 2002; Champion et al. 2003; Haberl 895
832 adoption of new practices and technologies, then this is et al. 2004; Firbank et al. 2005, in press). All annual 896

ARTICLE IN PRESS
897 Table 2. Properties of natural ecosystems compared with modern and sustainable agroecosystems. (Adapted from Gliessman 961
898 (2005).) 962
899 963
900 property natural ecosystem modern agroecosystem sustainable agroecosystem 964
901 965
902 productivity medium high medium (possibly high) 966
903 species diversity high low medium 967
904
functional diversity high low medium–high 968
output stability medium low–medium high
905 969
biomass accumulation high low medium–high
906 970
nutrient recycling closed open semi-closed
907 trophic relationships complex simple intermediate 971
908 natural population regulation high low medium–high 972
909 resilience high low medium 973
910 dependence on external inputs low high medium 974
911 human displacement of ecological processes low high low–medium 975
912 sustainability high low high 976
913 977
914 978
915 crops, though, are derived from opportunists and so There are several types of resource-conserving 979
916 their resource use is inherently different to perennials. technologies and practices that can be used to improve 980
917 Modern agriculture has also come to rely heavily of the stocks and use of natural capital in and around 981
918 nutrient inputs obtained from or driven by fossil fuel- agroecosystems. These are: 982
919 based sources. Nutrients are also used inefficiently and 983
920 together with certain products (e.g. ammonia, nitrate, (i) IPM, which uses ecosystem resilience and 984
921 methane, carbon dioxide) are lost to the environment. diversity for pest, disease and weed control, 985
922 For sustainability, nutrient leaks need to be reduced to and seeks only to use pesticides when other 986
923 a minimum, recycling and feedback mechanisms options are ineffective (e.g. Lewis et al. 1997; 987
924 introduced and strengthened, and nutrients and Gallagher et al. 2005; Herren et al. 2005; 988
925 materials diverted to capital accumulation. Agroeco- Hassanali et al. 2007; Bale et al. in press). 989
926 systems are considerably more simplified than natural (ii) Integrated nutrient management, which seeks both 990
927
ecosystems, and loss of biological diversity (to improve to balance the need to fix nitrogen within farm 991
928
crop and livestock productivity) results in the loss of systems with the need to import inorganic and 992
929
some ecosystem services, such as pest and disease organic sources of nutrients and to reduce 993
930
control (Gallagher et al. 2005). For sustainability, nutrient losses through erosion control 994
931
biological diversity needs to be increased to recreate (Crews & Peoples 2004; Leach et al. 2004; 995
932
natural control and regulation functions and to manage Goulding et al. 2007; Moss 2007). 996
933
pests and diseases rather than seeking to eliminate (iii) Conservation tillage, which reduces the amount 997
934 of tillage, sometime to zero, so that soil can be 998
them. Mature ecosystems are now known to be not
935 conserved and available moisture used more 999
stable and unchanging, but in a state of dynamic
936 efficiently (Petersen et al. 2000; Holland 2004; 1000
equilibrium that buffers against large shocks and
937 Hobbs et al. 2007). 1001
stresses. Modern agroecosystems have weak resilience,
938 (iv) Agroforestry, which incorporates multifunctional 1002
and for transitions towards sustainability need to focus
939 trees into agricultural systems and collective 1003
on structures and functions that improve resilience
940 management of nearby forest resources (Leakey 1004
(Holling et al. 1998; Folke et al. 2005; Shennan Q10
941 et al. 2005). 1005
in press).
942 (v) Aquaculture, which incorporates fish, shrimps 1006
943 But converting an agroecosystem to a more sustain- and other aquatic resources into farm systems, 1007
944 able design is complex, and generally requires a such as into irrigated rice fields and fish ponds, 1008
945 landscape or bioregional approach to restoration or and so leads to increases in protein production 1009
946 management (Kloppenburg et al. 1996; Higgs 2003; (Bunting in press). 1010
947 Jordan 2003; Odum & Barrett 2004; Swift et al. 2004; (vi) Water harvesting in dryland areas, which means 1011
948 Terwan et al. 2004). An agroecosystem is a bounded formerly abandoned and degraded lands can be 1012
949 system designed to produce food and fibre, yet it is also cultivated, and additional crops can be grown on 1013
950 part of a wider landscape at which scale a number of small patches of irrigated land owing to better 1014
951 ecosystem functions are important (Gliessman 2005). rain water retention (Pretty 1995; Reij 1996), 1015
952 For sustainability, interactions need to be developed and improving water productivity of crops 1016
953 between agroecosystems and whole landscapes of other (Morison et al. 2007). 1017
954 farms and non-farmed or wild habitats (e.g. wetlands, (vii) Livestock integration into farming systems, such 1018
955 woods, riverine habitats), as well as social systems of as dairy cattle, pigs and poultry, including using 1019
956 food procurement. Mosaic landscapes with a variety of zero-grazing cut and carry systems (Altieri 1020
957 farmed and non-farmed habitats are known to be good 1995; Wilkins 2007). 1021
958 for birds as well as farms (Bignall & McCracken 1996; 1022
959 Shennan et al. 2005; Woodhouse et al. 2005; Wade et al. Many of these individual technologies are also 1023
960 in press). multifunctional (Pretty 1995; Lewis et al. 1997). This 1024

ARTICLE IN PRESS
1025 implies that their adoption should mean favourable technologies (Dobbs & Pretty 2004). Nonetheless, 1089
1026 changes in several components of the farming system at periods of lower yields seem to be more apparent 1090
1027 the same time. For example, hedgerows and alley crops during conversions of industrialized agroecosystems. 1091
1028 encourage predators and act as windbreaks, thus There is growing evidence to suggest that most pre- 1092
1029 reducing soil erosion. Legumes introduced into industrial and modernized farming systems in devel- 1093
1030 rotations fix nitrogen, and also act as a break crop to oping countries can make rapid transitions to both 1094
1031 prevent carry-over of pests and diseases. Grass contour sustainable and productive farming. 1095
1032 strips slow surface-water run-off, encourage percola- 1096
1033 tion to groundwater and can be a source of fodder for 1097
1034 livestock. Catch crops prevent soil erosion and leaching 6. EFFECTS OF SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE 1098
1035 during critical periods, and can also be ploughed in as a ON YIELDS 1099
1036 green manure. The incorporation of green manures not One persistent question regarding the potential benefits 1100
1037 only provides a readily available source of nutrients for of more sustainable agroecosystems centres on pro- 1101
1038 the growing crop but also increases soil organic matter ductivity trade-offs. If environmental goods and 1102
1039 and hence water-retentive capacity, further reducing services are to be protected or improved, what then 1103
1040 susceptibility to erosion. happens to productivity? If it falls, then more land will 1104
1041 Although many resource-conserving technologies be required to produce the same amount of food, thus 1105
1042 and practices are currently being used, the total number resulting in further losses of natural capital (Green et al. 1106
1043 of farmers using them worldwide is still relatively small. 2005). As indicated earlier, the challenge is to seek 1107
1044 This is because their adoption is not a costless process sustainable intensification of all resources in order to 1108
1045 for farmers. They cannot simply cut their existing use of improve food production. In industrialized farming 1109
1046 fertilizer or pesticides and hope to maintain outputs, systems, this has proven impossible to do with organic 1110
1047 thus making operations more profitable. They also production systems, as food productivity is lower for 1111
1048 cannot simply introduce a new productive element into both crop and livestock systems (Lampkin & Padel 1112
1049 their farming systems and hope it would succeed. These 1994; Caporali et al. 2003). Nonetheless, there are now 1113
1050 transition costs arise for several reasons. Farmers some 3 Mha of agricultural land in Europe managed 1114
1051 must first invest in learning (Orr 1992; Röling & with certified organic practices. Some have led to lower 1115
Q11
1052 Wagermakers 1997; Bentley et al. 2003; Lieblin et al. energy use (though lower yields too), others to better 1116
1053 2004; Bawden 2005; Chambers 2005). As recent and nutrient retention and some greater nutrient losses 1117
1054 current policies have tended to promote specialized, (Dalgaard et al. 1998, 2002; Løes & Øgaard 2003; 1118
1055 non-adaptive systems with a lower innovation capacity, Q12 Gosling & Shepherd 2004), and some to greater labour 1119
1056 farmers have to spend time learning about a greater absorption (Morison et al. 2005; Pretty et al. 2006). 1120
1057 diversity of practices and measures (Gallagher et al. Many other farmers have adopted integrated farming 1121
1058 2005; Kesevan & Swaminathan in press). Lack of practices, which represent a step or several steps towards 1122
1059 information and management skills is, therefore, a sustainability. What has become increasingly clear is that 1123
1060 major barrier to the adoption of sustainable agriculture. many modern farming systems are wasteful, as integrated 1124
1061 During the transition period, farmers must experiment farmers have found they can cut down many purchased 1125
1062 more and thus incur the costs of making mistakes as inputs without losing out on profitability (EA 2005). 1126
1063 well as of acquiring new knowledge and information. Some of these cuts in use are substantial, others are 1127
1064 The on-farm biological processes that make relatively small. By adopting better targeting and 1128
1065 sustainable agroecosystems productive also take time precision methods, there is less wastage and more benefit 1129
1066 to become established ( Firbank et al. in press; to the environment. They can then make greater cuts in 1130
1067 Kibblewhite et al. in press; Wade et al. in press). input use once they substitute some regenerative 1131
1068 These include the rebuilding of depleted natural technologies for external inputs, such as legumes for 1132
1069 buffers of predator stocks and wild host plants; inorganic fertilizers or predators for pesticides. Finally, 1133
1070 increasing the levels of nutrients; developing and they can replace some or all external inputs entirely over 1134
1071 exploiting microenvironments and positive interactions time once they have learned their way into a new type of 1135
1072 between them; and the establishment and growth of farming characterized by new goals and technologies 1136
1073 trees. These higher variable and capital investment (Pretty & Ward 2001). 1137
1074 costs must be incurred before returns increase. However, it is in developing countries that some of 1138
1075 Examples include for labour in construction of soil the most significant progress towards sustainable 1139
1076 and water conservation measures; planting of trees and agroecosystems has been made in the past decade 1140
1077 hedgerows; pest and predator monitoring and manage- (Uphoff 2002; McNeely & Scherr 2003; Pretty et al. 1141
1078 ment; fencing of paddocks; the establishment of 2003b). The largest study comprised the analysis of 1142
1079 zero-grazing units; and purchase of new technologies, 286 projects in 57 countries (Pretty et al. 2006). This 1143
1080 such as manure storage equipment or global position- involved the use of both questionnaires and published 1144
1081 ing systems for tractors. reports by projects to assess changes over time. As in 1145
1082 It has also been argued that farmers adopting more earlier research ( Pretty et al. 2003b), data were 1146
1083 sustainable agroecosystems are internalizing many of triangulated from several sources and cross-checked 1147
1084 the agricultural externalities associated with intensive by external reviewers and regional experts. The study 1148
1085 farming and hence could be compensated for effec- involved analysis of projects sampled once in time 1149
1086 tively providing environmental goods and services. (nZ218) and those sampled twice over a 4-year period 1150
1087 Providing such compensation or incentives would be (nZ68). Not all proposed cases were accepted for the 1151
1088 likely to increase the adoption of resource conserving dataset and rejections were based on a strict set of 1152

ARTICLE IN PRESS
1153 Table 3. Summary of adoption and impact of agricultural sustainability technologies and practices on 286 projects in 57 1217
1154 countries. 1218
1155 1219
1156 no. of hectares 1220
1157 no. of farmers under sustainable average % increase 1221
1158 FAO farm system categorya adopting agriculture in crop yieldsb 1222
1159 1223
1160
smallholder irrigated 177 287 357 940 129.8 (G21.5) 1224
wetland rice 8 711 236 7 007 564 22.3 (G2.8)
1161 1225
smallholder rainfed humid 1 704 958 1 081 071 102.2 (G9.0)
1162 1226
smallholder rainfed highland 401 699 725 535 107.3 (G14.7)
1163 smallholder rainfed dry/cold 604 804 737 896 99.2 (G12.5) 1227
1164 dualistic mixed 537 311 26 846 750 76.5 (G12.6) 1228
1165 coastal artisanal 220 000 160 000 62.0 (G20.0) 1229
1166 urban-based and kitchen garden 207 479 36 147 146.0 (G32.9) 1230
1167 all projects 12 564 774 36 952 903 79.2 (G4.5) 1231
1168 a
Farm categories from Dixon et al. (2001). 1232
1169 b 1233
Yield data from 360 crop-project combinations; reported as % increase (thus a 100% increase is a doubling of yields). Standard errors in
1170 brackets. 1234
1171 1235
1172 criteria. As this was a purposive sample of ‘best 100 1236
1173 practice’ initiatives, the findings are not representative 1237
1174 of all developing country farms. 1238
Table 3 contains a summary of the location and 80
1175 1239
no. of observations
1176 extent of the 286 agricultural sustainability projects 1240
1177 across the eight categories of FAO farming systems 60 1241
1178 (Dixon et al. 2001) in the 57 countries. In all, some 1242
1179 12.6 million farmers on 37 Mha were engaged in 1243
transitions towards agricultural sustainability in these 40
1180 1244
1181 286 projects. This is just over 3% of the total cultivated 1245
1182 area (1.136 Mha) in developing countries. The largest 20 1246
1183 number of farmers was in wetland rice-based systems, 1247
1184 mainly in Asia (category 2), and the largest area was in 1248
0
1185 dualistic mixed systems, mainly in southern Latin 1249
0.
1. .1
1. 1.6
2. 2.1
2. .6
3. 3.1
3. 3.6
4. .1
4. .6
5. .1
5. 5.6
America (category 6). This study showed that
9–
4–
9–
4–
9–
4–
9–
4–
9–
4–
9–
1186 1250
1
4
5
2
6.
agricultural sustainability was spreading to more farm-
1
1187 1251
ers and hectares. In the 68 randomly re-sampled relative change in yield
1188 1252
1189 projects from the original study, there was a 54% Figure 5. Histogram of change in crop yield after or 1253
1190 increase over the 4 years in the number of farmers and with project, compared to before or without project 1254
1191 45% in the number of hectares. These resurveyed (nZ360, mean Z1.79, s.d.Z0.91, medianZ1.50, geometric 1255
1192 projects comprised 60% of the farmers and 44% of the meanZ1.64). 1256
1193 hectares in the original sample of 208 projects. 1257
1194 For the 360 reliable yield comparisons from 198 — improvements to natural capital, including increased 1258
1195 projects, the mean relative yield increase was 79% water retention in soils, improvements in water table 1259
1196 across the very wide variety of systems and crop types. (with more drinking water in the dry season), 1260
1197 However, there was a widespread in results (figure 5). reduced soil erosion combined with improved 1261
1198 While 25% of projects reported relative yields greater organic matter in soils, leading to better carbon 1262
1199 than 2.0 (i.e. 100% increase), half of all the projects sequestration and increased agrobiodiversity 1263
1200 had yield increases between 18 and 100%. The — improvements to social capital, including more and 1264
1201 geometric mean is a better indicator of the average for stronger social organizations at local level, new rules 1265
1202 such data with a positive skew, but this still shows a and norms for managing collective natural resources 1266
1203 64% increase in yield. However, the average hides large and better connectedness to external policy insti- 1267
1204 and statistically significant differences between the tutions 1268
1205 main crops (figure 6a,b). In nearly all cases, there was — improvements to human capital, including more local 1269
1206 an increase in yield with the project. Only in rice there capacity to experiment and solve own problems, 1270
1207 were three reports where yields decreased, and the reduced incidence of malaria in rice-fish zones, 1271
1208 increase in rice was the lowest (meanZ1.35), although increased self-esteem in formerly marginalized 1272
1209 it constituted a third of all the crop data. Cotton groups, increased status of women, better child 1273
1210 showed a similarly small mean yield increase. health and nutrition, especially in dry seasons, and 1274
1211 These sustainable agroecosystems also have positive reversed migration and more local employment. 1275
1212 side effects, helping to build natural capital, strengthen 1276
1213 communities (social capital) and develop human What we do not know, however, is the full economic 1277
1214 capacities (Ostrom 1990; Pretty 2003). Examples of benefits of these spin-offs. In many industrialized 1278
1215 positive side effects recently recorded in various countries, agriculture is now assumed to contribute 1279
1216 developing countries include: very little to GDP, leading many commentators to 1280

ARTICLE IN PRESS
1281 (a) (a) 1345

1282 4.0 1346
relative crop yield changes after/with projects (%)

1283 300 1347
1284 3.5 D A 1348
relative change in yield
250 rice
1285 maize 1349
3.0 wheat
1286 sorghum 1350
200 vegetables
potato
1287 2.5 cotton 1351
legumes
1288 150 no yield change 1352
2.0 no pesticide change
1289 1353
100
1290 1354
1291 1.5 1355
50 C B
1292 1356
1.0
1293 1357
ca
co ava
fru on wee
gr t an
m ndn coff
m ze t
ot et/s
ot r ghu
po r leg
ric to me
so
ve be
w tab
0 50 100 150
he le
ai u ee
ill
he or
he
ou d
ya
ss
ge an
tt /s
ta u
e
i
1294 1358
at s
relative pesticide use changes after/with projects (%)
1295 1359
s
tp
1296 1360
ot
(b)
at
1297 1361
o
crop or type
change in pesticide use and crop yields (%)

1298 80 1362
average
1299 (b) 60 1363
pesticide use
1300 7 40 change (%) 1364
1301 20 average yield 1365
6 change (%)
1302 0 1366
relative change in yield
1303 5 crop or type A C D All 1367

–20
1304 wheat 1368
–40
1305 4 soya bean 1369
–60
1306 rice 1370
3 –80
1307 potato 1371
1308 other legumes –100 1372
2
1309 millet/sorghum Figure 7. (a) Association between pesticide use and crop 1373
1310 1 maize yields (data from 80 crop combinations, 62 projects, 26 1374
1311 cotton countries). (b) Changes in pesticide use and yields in 62 1375
1312 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10 000 projects (A: nZ10; C: nZ5; D: nZ47). 1376
1313 1377
yield before/without project (kg ha–1) (iii) both pesticide use and yields fall (C) and
1314 1378
1315 Figure 6. (a) Mean changes in crop yield after or with project, (iv) pesticide use declines, but yields increase (D). 1379
1316 compared with before or without project. Vertical lines 1380
indicate Gs.e.m. ‘Other’ group consists of sugar cane The assumption in modern agriculture is that
1317 1381
(nZ2), quinoa (1), oats (2). (b) Relationship between relative pesticide use and yields are positively correlated. For
1318 1382
changes in crop yield after (or with project) to yield before or IPM, the trajectory moving into sector A is therefore
1319 (without project). Only field crops with nO9 shown. 1383
1320
unlikely but not impossible, for example in low-input 1384
systems. What is expected is a move into sector C. While
1321 assume that agriculture is not important for moder- 1385
1322 nized economies ( NRC 2000). But such a conclusion is a change into sector B would be against economic 1386
1323 a function of the fact that very few measures are being rationale, farmers are unlikely to adopt IPM if their 1387
1324 made of the positive side effects of agriculture (MEA profits would be lowered. A shift into sector D would 1388
1325 2005). In poor countries, where financial support is indicate that current pesticide use has negative yield 1389
1326 limited and markets weak, then people rely even more effects or that the amount saved from pesticides is 1390
1327 on the value they can derive from the natural reallocated to other yield-increasing inputs. This could 1391
1328 environment and from working together to achieve be possible with excessive use of herbicides or when 1392
1329 collective outcomes. pesticides cause outbreaks of secondary pests, such as 1393
1330 observed with the brown plant hopper in rice (Kenmore 1394
1331 et al. 1984). 1395
1332 7. EFFECTS OF SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE Figure 7a,b shows data from 62 IPM initiatives in 26 1396
1333 ON PESTICIDE USE AND YIELDS developing and industrialized countries (Australia, 1397
1334 Recent IPM programmes, particularly in developing Bangladesh, China, Cuba, Ecuador, Egypt, Germany, 1398
1335 countries, are beginning to show how pesticide use can Honduras, India, Indonesia, Japan, Kenya, Laos, Nepal, 1399
1336 be reduced and pest management practices can be Netherlands, Pakistan, Philippines, Senegal, Sri Lanka, 1400
1337 modified without yield penalties (Brethour & Weerskink Switzerland, Tanzania, Thailand, UK, USA, Vietnam 1401
1338 2001; Wilson & Tisdell 2001; Gallagher et al. 2005; and Zimbabwe; Pretty & Waibel 2005). The 62 IPM 1402
1339 Herren et al. 2005; Pretty & Waibel 2005; Hassanali initiatives have some 5.4 million farm households on 1403
1340 et al. 2007). In principle, there are four possible 25.3 Mha. The evidence on pesticide use is derived from 1404
1341 trajectories of impact if IPM is introduced: data on both the number of sprays per hectare and the 1405
1342 amount of active ingredient used per hectare. This 1406
1343 (i) pesticide use and yields increase (A), analysis does not include recent evidence on the effect of 1407
1344 (ii) pesticide use increases, but yields decline (B), some genetically modified crops, some of which result in 1408

ARTICLE IN PRESS
1409 reductions in the use of herbicides (Champion et al. Table 4. Mechanisms for increasing carbon sinks and 1473
1410 2003) and pesticides (Nuffield Council on Bioethics reducing CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions in 1474
1411 2004), and some of which have led to increases agricultural systems. (Adapted from Pretty et al. (2002) and 1475
1412 (Benbrook 2003). Smith et al. (in press).) 1476
1413 There is only one sector B case reported in recent 1477
1414 literature (Feder et al. 2004). Such a case has recently Mechanism A. Increase carbon sinks in soil organic matter and 1478
above-ground biomass
1415 been reported from Java for rice farmers. The cases in 1479
replace inversion ploughing with conservation- and zero-
1416 sector C, where yields fall slightly while pesticide use tillage systems
1480
1417 falls dramatically, are mainly cereal-farming systems in adopt mixed rotations with cover crops and green manures 1481
1418 Europe, where yields typically fall to some 80% of to increase biomass additions to soil 1482
1419 current levels while pesticide use is reduced to 10–90% adopt agroforestry in cropping systems to increase above- 1483
1420 of current levels (Röling & Wagemakers 1997; Pretty ground standing biomass 1484
1421 1998). Sector A contains 10 projects where total minimize summer fallows and periods with no ground 1485
1422 pesticide use has indeed increased in the course of cover to maintain soil organic matter stocks 1486
1423 IPM introduction. These are mainly in zero-tillage and use soil conservation measures to avoid soil erosion and 1487
1424 loss of soil organic matter 1488
conservation agriculture systems, where reduced tillage
1425 apply composts and manures to increase soil organic 1489
creates substantial benefits for soil health and reduced matter stocks
1426 off-site pollution and flooding costs. These systems 1490
improve pasture/rangelands through grazing, vegetation
1427 usually require increased use of herbicides for weed 1491
and fire management both to reduce degradation and
1428 control (de Freitas 1999), though there are some increase soil organic matter 1492
1429 examples of organic zero-tillage systems (Petersen cultivate perennial grasses (60–80% of biomass below 1493
1430 et al. 2000). Over 60% of the projects are in category ground) rather than annuals (20% below ground) 1494
1431 D where pesticide use declines and yields increase. restore and protect agricultural wetlands 1495
1432 While pesticide reduction is to be expected, as farmers convert marginal agricultural land to woodlands to increase 1496
1433 substitute pesticides by information, yield increase standing biomass of carbon 1497
1434 induced by IPM is a more complex issue. It is probable, Mechanism B. Reduce direct and indirect energy use to avoid 1498
1435 greenhouse gas emissions (CO2,CH4 and N2O) 1499
for example, that farmers who receive good quality field
1436 conserve fuel and reduce machinery use to avoid fossil fuel 1500
training will not only improve their pest management consumption
1437 skills but also become more efficient in other agronomic 1501
use conservation- or zero-tillage to reduce CO2 emissions
1438 practices such as water, soil and nutrient management. 1502
from soils
1439 They can also invest some of the cash saved from 1503
adopt grass-based grazing systems to reduce methane
1440 pesticides in other inputs such as higher quality seeds emissions from ruminant livestock 1504
1441 and inorganic fertilizers. use composting to reduce manure methane emissions 1505
1442 substitute biofuel for fossil fuel consumption 1506
1443 reduce the use of inorganic N fertilizers (as manufacturing 1507
1444 is highly energy intensive), and adopt targeted- and slow- 1508
1445 8. EFFECTS ON CARBON BALANCES release fertilizers 1509
1446 The 1997 Kyoto Protocol to the UN Framework use IPM to reduce pesticide use (avoid indirect energy 1510
1447 Convention on Climate Change established an inter- consumption) 1511
1448 national policy context for the reduction of carbon Mechanism C. Increase biomass-based renewable energy pro- 1512
1449 emissions and increases in carbon sinks in order to duction to avoid carbon emissions 1513
address the global challenge of anthropogenic cultivate annual crops for biofuel production such as
1450 1514
ethanol from maize and sugar cane
1451 interference with the climate system. It is clear that cultivate annual and perennial crops, such as grasses and 1515
1452 both emission reductions and sink growth will be coppiced trees, for combustion and electricity generation, 1516
1453 necessary for mitigation of current climate change with crops replanted each cycle for continued energy 1517
1454 trends (Watson et al. 2000; IPCC 2001; Royal Society production 1518
Q13
1455 2001; Swingland 2003; Oelbermann et al. 2004; Hobbs use biogas digesters to produce methane, so substituting 1519
1456 et al. 2007; Lal in press; Smith et al. in press). A source is for fossil fuel sources 1520
1457 any process or activity that releases a greenhouse gas, or use improved cookstoves to increase efficiency of biomass 1521
1458 aerosol or a precursor of a greenhouse gas into the fuels 1522
1459 atmosphere, whereas a sink is such mechanism that 1523
1460 removes these from the atmosphere. Carbon sequestra- and 1.6 Gt C yrK1 in the 1990s (Watson et al. 2000; 1524
1461 tion is defined as the capture and secure storage of Bellamy et al. 2005). 1525
1462 carbon that would otherwise be emitted to or remain in On the other hand, agriculture is also an accumulator 1526
1463 the atmosphere. Agricultural systems emit carbon of carbon when organic matter is accumulated in the 1527
1464 through the direct use of fossil fuels in food production, soil, and when above-ground biomass acts either as a 1528
1465 the indirect use of embodied energy in inputs that are permanent sink or is used as an energy source that 1529
1466 energy intensive to manufacture, and the cultivation of substitutes for fossil fuels and thus avoids carbon 1530
1467 soils and/or soil erosion resulting in the loss of soil emissions. There are 3 main mechanisms and 21 1531
1468 organic matter. Agriculture also contributes to climate technical options (table 4) by which positive actions 1532
1469 change through the emissions of methane from irrigated can be taken by farmers by: 1533
1470 rice systems and ruminant livestock. The direct effects of 1534
1471 land use and land-use change (including forest loss) (i) increasing carbon sinks in soil organic matter and 1535
1472 have led to a net emission of 1.7 Gt C yrK1 in the 1980s above-ground biomass, 1536

ARTICLE IN PRESS
1537 Table 5. Summary of potential carbon sequestered in soils and above-ground biomass in the 286 projects. (Note. Gs.e. in 1601
1538 brackets.) 1602
1539 1603
1540 carbon sequestered per total carbon sequestered carbon sequestered per 1604
1541 FAO farm system category hectare (t C haK1 yrK1) (Mt C yrK1) household (t C yrK1) 1605
1542 1606
1543 smallholder irrigated 0.15 (G0.012) 0.011 0.06 1607
1544
wetland rice 0.34 (G0.035) 2.53 0.29 1608
smallholder rainfed humid 0.46 (G0.034) 0.34 0.20
1545 1609
smallholder rainfed highland 0.36 (G0.022) 0.23 0.56
1546 1610
smallholder rainfed dry/cold 0.26 (G0.035) 0.20 0.32
1547 dualistic mixed 0.32 (G0.023) 8.03 14.95 1611
1548 coastal artisanal 0.20 (G0.001) 0.032 0.15 1612
1549 urban-based and kitchen garden 0.24 (G0.061) 0.015 0.07 1613
1550 total 0.35 (G0.016) 11.38 0.91 1614
1551 1615
1552 1616
1553 (ii) avoiding carbon dioxide or other greenhouse gas As indicated above, agricultural sustainability can 1617
1554 emissions from farms by reducing direct and contribute to increased food production, as well as makes 1618
1555 indirect energy use, and a positive impact on environmental goods and services. 1619
1556 (iii) increasing renewable energy production from Clearly, much can be done with existing resources, but a 1620
1557 biomass that either substitutes for consumption wider transition towards a more sustainable agriculture 1621
1558 of fossil fuels or replacing inefficient burning of will not occur without some external support and money. 1622
1559 fuelwood or crop residues, and so avoids carbon There are always transition costs in developing new or 1623
1560 emissions. adapting old technologies, in learning to work together 1624
1561 and in breaking free from existing patterns of thought 1625
The potential annual contributions being made in the and practice. It also costs time and money to rebuild
1562 1626
286 projects (Pretty et al. 2006) to carbon sink increases
1563 depleted natural and social capital. 1627
in soils and trees were calculated, using an established
1564 Most agricultural sustainability improvements occur- 1628
methodology (Pretty et al. 2002; table 5). As the focus is
1565 ring in the 1990s and early 2000s appear to have arisen 1629
on what sustainable methods can do to increase
1566 despite existing national and institutional policies, rather 1630
quantities of soil and above-ground carbon, no account
1567 than owing to them (Dasgupta 1998). Although almost 1631
was taken of existing stocks of carbon. Soil carbon
1568
sequestration is corrected for climate, as rates are higher every country would now say it supports the idea of 1632
1569 agricultural sustainability, the evidence points towards 1633
in humid when compared with dry zones and generally
1570 only patchy reforms. Only three countries have given 1634
higher in temperate than tropical areas.
1571 explicit national support for sustainable agriculture: 1635
These projects were potentially sequestering
1572 Cuba has a national policy for alternative agriculture; 1636
11.4 Mt C yrK1 on 37 Mha. The average gain was
1573 Switzerland has three tiers of support to encourage 1637
0.35 t C haK1 yrK1, with an average per household
1574 environmental services from agriculture and rural 1638
gain of 0.91 t C yrK1. The per hectare gains vary from
1575 development; and Bhutan has a national environmental 1639
0.15 t C haK1 yrK1 for smallholder irrigated systems
1576 1640
(category 1) to 0.46 t C haK1 yrK1 for category three policy coordinated across all sectors (Funes et al. 2002;
1577 1641
systems. For most systems, per households gains were in Pretty 2002; Herzog et al. 2005; Zhao et al. in press).
1578 1642
the range 0.05–0.5 t C yrK1, with the much larger farms Several countries have given subregional support to
1579 1643
of southern Latin America using zero-tillage and agricultural sustainability, such as the states of Santa
1580 1644
conservation agriculture achieving the most at Caterina, Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul in southern
1581 1645
14.9 t C yrK1 (Hobbs et al. 2007). Such gains in carbon Brazil supporting zero-tillage, catchment management
1582 1646
may offer new opportunities for income generation and rural agribusiness development and some states in
1583 1647
under carbon trading schemes (Swingland 2003). India supporting participatory watershed and irrigation
1584 1648
1585
management. A larger number of countries have 1649
1586
reformed parts of agricultural policies, such as China’s 1650
9. THE WIDER POLICY CONTEXT
1587 support for integrated ecological demonstration villages, 1651
Three things are now clear from evidence on the recent
1588 Kenya’s catchment approach to soil conservation, 1652
spread of agricultural sustainability:
1589 Indonesia’s ban on pesticides and programme for farmer 1653
1590 (i) Many technologies and social processes for local field schools, Bolivia’s regional integration of agricul- 1654
1591 scale adoption of more sustainable agricultural tural and rural policies, Sweden’s support for organic 1655
1592 systems are increasingly well tested and estab- agriculture, Burkina Faso’s land policy and Sri Lanka 1656
1593 lished, and the Philippines’ stipulation that water users’ groups 1657
1594 (ii) The social and institutional conditions for spread be formed to manage irrigation systems. In Europe and 1658
1595 are less well understood, but have been estab- North America, a number of agri-environmental 1659
1596 lished in several contexts, leading to more rapid schemes have been implemented in the past decade 1660
1597 spread during the 1990s–early 2000s, and (Dobbs & Pretty 2004), though their success has been 1661
1598 (iii) The political conditions for the emergence of patchy (Kleijn et al. 2001; Marggraf 2003; Carey et al. 1662
1599 supportive policies are the least well established, 2005; Feehan et al. 2005; Herzog et al. 2005; 1663
1600 with only a few examples of positive progress. Meyer-Aurich 2005). 1664

ARTICLE IN PRESS
1665 A good example of a carefully designed and Like all major changes, transitions towards sustain- 1729
1666 integrated programme comes from China (Li Wenhua Q14 ability can also provoke secondary problems. For 1730
1667 2001). In March 1994, the government published a example, building a road near a forest can not only 1731
1668 White Paper to set out its plan for implementation of help farmers reach food markets, but also aid illegal 1732
1669 Agenda 21 and put forward ecological farming, known timber extraction. If land has to be closed off to grazing 1733
1670 as Shengtai Nongye or agroecological engineering, as the for rehabilitation, then people with no other source of 1734
1671 approach to achieve sustainability in agriculture. Pilot feed may have to sell their livestock; and if cropping 1735
1672 projects have been established in 2000 townships and intensity increases or new lands are taken into 1736
1673 villages spread across 150 counties. Policy for these ‘eco- cultivation, then the burden of increased workloads 1737
1674 counties’ is organized through a cross-ministry partner- may fall particularly on women. Producers of current 1738
1675 ship, which uses a variety of incentives to encourage agrochemical products are likely to suffer market losses 1739
1676 adoption of diverse production systems to replace from a more limited role for their products. The increase 1740
1677 monocultures. These include subsidies and loans, in assets that could come from sustainable livelihoods 1741
1678 technical assistance, tax exemptions and deductions, based on sustainable agriculture may simply increase the 1742
1679 security of land tenure, marketing services and linkages incentives for more powerful interests to take over. In 1743
1680 to research organizations. These eco-counties contain addition, with benefits weighted towards the future 1744
1681 some 12 Mha of land, approximately half of which is while requiring current costs, this may leave poor 1745
1682 cropland, and though only covering a relatively small farmers unable to adopt novel technologies, while richer 1746
1683 part of China’s total agricultural land, do illustrate what farmers in industrialized countries are being paid to 1747
1684 make the changes (Lee 2005; Tripp in press). 1748
is possible when policy is appropriately coordinated.
1685 New winners and losers will emerge with the 1749
Many countries now have national policies that now
1686 widespread adoption of sustainable agriculture. A 1750
advocate export-led agricultural development. Access to
1687 differentiated approach for agricultural policies will 1751
international markets is clearly important for poorer
1688 thus become increasingly necessary if agroecosystems 1752
countries, and successful competition for market share
1689 are to become more productive while reducing negative 1753
can be a very significant source of foreign exchange.
1690 impacts on the environment, thus improving efficiency 1754
However, this approach has some drawbacks: (i) poor
1691 (Dobbs & Pretty 2004; Lee 2005; Wilkins 2007). This 1755
countries are in competition with one another for market
1692 will require wider attention to exchange rate policies, 1756
share, and so there is likely to be a downward pressure
1693 trade reforms, domestic agricultural prices, input 1757
on prices, which reduces returns over time unless
1694 subsidies, labour market reforms, education and invest- 1758
productivity continues to increase, (ii) markets for
1695 ment in schools, rural infrastructure, secure property 1759
agri-food products are fickle, and can be rapidly
1696 rights to water and land, development of institutions for 1760
undermined by alternative products or threats (e.g.
1697 resource management and substantial investments in 1761
1698
avian bird flu and the collapse of the Thai poultry 1762
sector), (iii) distant markets are less sensitive to the agricultural research and extension. At the same time,
1699 the environmental costs of transporting food are 1763
1700
potential negative externalities of agricultural pro- 1764
duction and are rarely pro-poor (with the exception of increasing, and in some countries are greater than the
1701 costs arising from food production on farms, suggesting 1765
1702
fair-trade products and efforts by some food companies; 1766
Smith in press), and (iv) smallholders have many that sustainability priorities need to be set for whole food
1703 1767
difficulties in accessing international markets and chains (Pretty et al. 2005; Smith in press).
1704 1768
market information. In this context, it is unclear whether progress towards
1705 1769
More importantly, an export-led approach can seem more sustainable agricultural systems will result in
1706 1770
to ignore the in-country opportunities for agricultural enough food to meet the current food needs in
1707 1771
development focused on local and regional markets. developing countries, let alone the future needs after
1708 1772
Agricultural policies with both sustainability and poverty continued population growth (and changed consump-
1709 1773
reduction aims should adopt a multi-track approach that tion patterns) and adoption of more urban and meat-
1710 1774
emphasizes five components: (i) small farmer develop- rich diets (Popkin 1998). But what is occurring should
1711 1775
ment linked to local markets, (ii) agri-business develop- be cause for cautious optimism, particularly as evidence
1712 1776
ment—both small businesses and export-led, (iii) agro- indicates that productivity can grow over time if natural,
1713 1777
processing and value-added activities to ensure that social and human assets are accumulated.
1714 1778
1715 returns are maximized in-country, (iv) urban agricul- 1779
1716 ture, as many urban people rely on small-scale urban 1780
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2433 Author Queries Q23 Please update publication details in Kibblewhite et al. (in 2497
2434 press). 2498
JOB NUMBER: 20072163
2435 Q22 Please update publication details in Kesevan & 2499
2436 JOURNAL: RSTB Swaminathan (in press). 2500
2437 Q24 Please update publication details in Lal (in press). 2501
2438 Q1 We have inserted a short tile. Please approve or provide Q25 Please update publication details in Shennan (in press). 2502
2439 an alternative. Q26 Please update publication details in Smith (in press). 2503
2440 Q2 Please check the edit of the sentence ‘Today, concerns Q27 Please update publication details in Smith et al. (in 2504
2441 about sustainability.’ press). 2505
2442 2506
Q3 Please note that the reference citation Victor & Reuben Q28 Please update publication details in Thomson (in
2443 2507
(2000) has been changed to Victor & Reuben (2002) press).
2444 2508
with respect to the reference list provided. Q29 Please update publication details in Tripp (in press).
2445 2509
Q4 Please note that the reference citation Trewevas (2001) Q30 Please update publication details in Waage & Mumford
2446 2510
has been changed to Trewevas (2002) with respect to (in press).
2447 2511
the reference list provided. Q31 Please update publication details in Wade et al. (in
2448 2512
2449 Q5 Please note that the reference citation Putnam (1993) press). 2513
2450 has been changed to Putnam et al. (1993) with respect Q32 Please update publication details in Witcombe et al. (in 2514
2451 to the reference list provided. press). 2515
2452 Q6 Reference Scoones (1998) has been cited in text but Q33 Please update publication details in Zhao et al. (in 2516
2453 not provided in the list. Please supply reference details press). 2517
2454 or delete the reference citation from the text. 2518
2455 Q7 Reference Costanza et al. (1999) has been cited in text 2519
2456 but not provided in the list. Please supply reference 2520
2457 details or delete the reference citation from the text. 2521
2458 Q8 Please suggest if ‘that provide’ can be deleted in the 2522
2459 sentence ‘It is enhanced by access.’ 2523
2460 Q9 Reference Uphoff (2003) has been cited in text but not 2524
2461 2525
provided in the list. Please supply reference details or
2462 2526
delete the reference citation from the text.
2463 2527
Q10 Please note that the reference citation Leaky (2005) has
2464 2528
been changed to Leakey et al. (2005) with respect to the
2465 2529
reference list provided.
2466 2530
2467
Q11 Please note that the reference citation Röling & 2531
2468 Wagermakers (1998) has been changed to Röling & 2532
2469 Wagermakers (1997) with respect to the reference list 2533
2470 provided. 2534
2471 Q12 Please note that the reference citation Gosling & 2535
2472 Shepherd (2005) has been changed to Gosling & 2536
2473 Shepherd (2004) with respect to the reference list 2537
2474 provided. 2538
2475 Q13 Please note that the reference citation Oelbermann et 2539
2476 al. (2003) has been changed to Oelbermann et al. 2540
2477 (2004) with respect to the reference list provided. 2541
2478 Q14 Please check the edit of the sentence ‘For example, 2542
2479 building a road.’ 2543
2480 Q15 References Kiljonen & Rikkonen (2004) and Day et al. 2544
2481 2545
(2007) are provided in the list but not cited in the text.
2482 2546
Please supply citation details or delete the reference
2483 2547
from the reference list.
2484 2548
Q16 Please update publication details in Bale et al. (in
2485 2549
press).
2486 2550
2487 Q17 Please update publication details in Bunting (in press). 2551
2488 Q18 Please check the inserted volume number in Firbank et 2552
2489 al. (2005). 2553
2490 Q19 Please update publication details in Firbank et al. (in 2554
2491 press). 2555
2492 Q20 Please provide complete details for the reference Folke 2556
2493 et al. (2005). 2557
2494 Q21 Please provide the initials for the author ‘Hesiod’ in 2558
2495 reference Hesiod (1988). 2559
2496 2560

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ARTICLE IN PRESS

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

1 This journal is q 2007 The Royal Society

RSTB 20072163—25/6/2007—21:06—THIAGU—278760—XML RSB – pp. 1–20

129 6 outnumber the hungry (WHO 1998). Diet-related 193

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

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257 (a) (b) 321

proportion of livestock numbers

compared with 1961 (= 1)

276 2.3 340

proportion of fertilizer consumption

compated with 1961 (= 1)

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

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385 (a) (b) 449

387 tubers, oil crops; billion tonnes) 451

405 4.0 469

have to make improvements. In many, the challenge is

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

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Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

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Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

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Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

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Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

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Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

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Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

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1281 (a) (a) 1345

relative crop yield changes after/with projects (%)

change in pesticide use and crop yields (%)

1303 5 crop or type A C D All 1367

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

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Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

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Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

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Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

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Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

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Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

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Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

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Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

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Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

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Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

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