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The Evaluation of National Income in An Imperfect Economy (A J) 1969
The Evaluation of National Income in An Imperfect Economy (A J) 1969
The Evaluation of National Income in An Imperfect Economy (A J) 1969
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ofEconomicsin theUniversity
♦Theauthoris Professor ofOxford. He wishesto thank
Dr. A. R. Khan forusefulcomments.The subjectof the paperwas suggested bya seminar
givenby Mr. M.FG. Scottin Oxford. The researchwas carriedout at thePakistanInstitute
of Development Economics.
iAmongthemore important papersare: [2 ; 4 ; 6]. ProfessorSamuelson'spaper [6]
butnotintheformsketchedhere.
accountofthetheory,
givesa definitive
4 u- gw (3)
whereUjis thederivativeof u withrespectto xj, themarginalutilityof consum-
ing theyth commodity, and xj is the rate of changeof consumptionof theyth
commodity. The assumption of competitiveequilibriummeans that marginal
utilitiesare proportionalto prices. Therefore
= mLqjXj (4)
-^-u
This simpleargumentsuggeststhatsuitablepricesforevaluatingnational
incomecan, in principle,be defined,and shows that the accountingpricesso
definedare the pricesone would want for decentralizing
productiondecisions.
But two serious worriescry out for comment. First, the definitionof the
accountingpriceswas made on the assumptionthat social welfarewas being
maximized. Second, it is far fromclear how such accountingprices could
possibly be estimated. Nevertheless,it has been clearly demonstratedthat
Commodity1
Figure 1
in
I shall now outlinethe more formalderivationof the accountingprices,
and outlinetherelationbetweenmarketpricesand accountingpricesin an opti-
mallycontrolledeconomyof the type we have been considering. It must be
assumed,and it is not unreasonableto do so, thatthegovernment can, by means
of commoditytaxes and subsidies,arrangefor marketpricesto be anythingit
pleases. As before,marketprices are denoted by q = (q2 , . . . , qn). I
denoteby V (q) = V (qx , . . ., qn) thewelfarethatarisesfromtheoptimumuse
of othergovernment policies,giventhe marketprices. When thesepoliciesare
followed, the aggregatedemands by consumers,D = (Dx , . . . , Dn) are func-
tions of q. The argumentsof the previous section suggested,and is rigor-
ously demonstratedby Diamond and Mirrlees [1], that there are account-
ing prices p = (pl9 . . . , pn) such that optimumproductionx* = (xf,. . . , x*)
maximizes
PX = piXi + p2X2+ . . . + PnXn.
q* = (qj,...,qp,
optimumproductionis
x* = D(q«). (8)
It is shownby Diamond and Mirrlees[1] thatthepricesp can be chosenso that
"M~k2PjDj(q<)(9)
-4V(q<)
fora constnatM» . It is also shownthat(9) can be interpreted
as sayingthat
=MSjPj
1 v=2>-kv(q')qr (I0)
(Eik Dj(q*)qr)
From(8), we seethat
Therefore,
-Ay = MSjPjx/,
as we expect.
Relations(9) definethe optimumrelationbetweenmarketpricesand
accounting canholdevenifincome
prices. It willbe noticedthattheserelations
taxes,etc.,are notbeing chosen optimally. The conclusion(10) holdsevenif
someofthemarket prices arefixedand constantfor somereason,notdeliberately
chosenby government9. Thus,the conditions necessaryfor the conclusion
thatchangesin nationalincomeat constantaccounting pricesreflect
changes
in welfareare that:
taxesare beingchosenoptimally;
a) some commodity
b) all policiesnot chosenoptimally,and all marketpricesnot deter-
minedoptimally, remainconstant.
Ofcoursein anycomparison ofnationalincomeovertime,ithasto be assumed
thatpreferences and thecircumstances ofdemandremainconstant:thiscondi-
- e.g.incometaxrates
themorecircumstances
tionis lesslikelyto be satisfied
- haveto be assumedconstant, determined.
ifnotoptimally
IV
so far impliesonlythatundercertainratherUtopian
Our argument
that,in an imperfect
It is unfortunate economy,thepricesappropriateto
measuring the national income are not actual prices,and thereforecannot be
observed directly. They are surelynot, in any presentlyexistingeconomy,
marketprices,for reasons we have already seen. They are not, in general,
factorprices. Factor priceswould indeed be the appropriatepricesto use if
controlof the marketsforgoods and serviceswereexercisedentirelyby means
of uniformtaxes. But thisrequires,in particular,thattariffs and exporttaxes
different from 'optimum' taxes and tariffsare not levied. Revenue or protec-
of
tivetaxation foreign trade is ruled out. Undeniably, it is awkward to want
an economic statisticsthat is not definedby standard proceduresapplied to
observabledata: the 'objectivity'of the statisticsappears to be compromised.
But thereis no way out. Eitherone has a (relatively)meaninglessfigure,or
one employseconomic expertiseand guessworkin the constructionof the
statistics. We should not have expectedanythingelse.
of an economymightbe ratherinformatively
portrayedby means of thefollow-
:
ing schemeof estimates
Total
Public consumption =
Grosscapitalformation =
= GrossNationalExpenditure =
(accountingprices)
VI
REFERENCES
1. Taxationand PublicPro-
Diamond,P.A. and J.A. Mirrlees,Optimum
duction.WorkingPaperNo. 21. (Cambridge;M.I.T., Departmentof
Economics,
May 1968).
2. 1940.
Hicks,J.R., "The ValuationofSocialIncome",Economica,
3. Lewis,S. R. andGuisinger,
Measuring ina Developing
Protection Country:
The Case of Pakistan. Memorandum No. 20. (HarvardUniversity
Research,December1966).
Projectfor Quantitative
4. Little,I.M.D., 'The Valuationof Social Income",Economica,1949.
5. Manualof Industrial
Little,I.M.D. and J.A.Mirrlees, ProjectAnalysis.
(Paris: Organisationfor Economic Cooperationand Development,
forthcoming).
6. Samuelson,P.A., "ValuationofReal NationalIncome",OxfordEcono-
micPapers,1950.
7. Soligo,R. andJ.J.Stern,"Tariff and In-
ImportSubstitution
Protection,
vestment Pakistan
Efficiency", DevelopmentReview,Vol. V, No. 2,
Summer 1965.