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Quarterly Houston Office Report
Quarterly Houston Office Report
23Q2
Houston
Accelerating success.
Office Key Takeaways
Houston
23Q2
• Office vacancy rate stabilizes with no change
• Sublease space declines for second consecutive quarter
• Net absorption positive for both quarters
• Leasing volume increases
22.1% FORECAST
35.8K SF FORECAST
1.8M SF FORECAST
$35.46/SF FORECAST
Houston Highlights
Houston’s office market posted minimum net absorption of 35,777 square feet in Q2 2023, but this activity continued a positive trend
for the year for a mid-year total of 240,815 square feet. The overall average vacancy rate stabilized at 22.1% for the year, dropping from
23.5% year-over-year. Leasing activity jumped 23.4% from a sluggish first quarter, recording 3.5 million square feet. The Katy Freeway
submarket reported 38% of the total, although many of the largest new signed leases represent reductions in overall square footage. The
under-construction pipeline remains limited at 1.8 million square feet, while three buildings totaling 227,848 square feet in two submarkets
delivered during second quarter. Houston’s overall average gross rental rates nudged up to $29.87 from first quarter’s $29.73 but declined
from the same period last year. Houston’s Class A average rental rate increased to $35.46 per square foot from $34.76 in Q1 2023.
0 18%
22Q2 23Q1 23Q2 -500,000 16%
Net Absorption
(224.2) 205.0 35.8
(in Thousands of SF) Absorption New Supply Total Vacancy
Under Net absorption has remained positive while new supply has been
Construction 2,000.2 1,920.0 1,823.4 limited. The overall vacancy rate has currently stabilized but will
(in Thousands of SF) likely increase within the next year as tenants move into their new
downsized offices. Sublease space has also been declining the last
Overall Asking 12 months.
$30.25 $29.73 $29.87
Lease Rates (FSG)
Recent Transactions
*Colliers Transaction
23Q2
Commentary
By Greg Young, Senior Vice President, Colliers Mortgage
Houston’s office market continues to face challenges as we see the cannibalism of lower-class assets for the foreseeable
enter the sixth quarter of the new interest-rate environment. future.
During recent earnings calls, most large investment banks
reported they are sharply increasing credit loss reserves Negative leverage is here to stay until cap rates continue their
primarily due to office loan maturities through 2024. That upward trend or we see a sharp decline in the cost of capital.
being said, there is cautious optimism for a broad range of Most prognosticators do not anticipate this happening any
office assets in the Bayou City with some bright spots, some time soon. Liquidity concerns are also worth noting. Year-over-
acute pain points and some economic realities being reset. year, middle-market CMBS volume is off 75%, taking a primary
source of liquidity off the table for office product. Banks are
The Good looking for less office exposure and are reeling in their lines
There are undeniable positive trends going on in certain to the debt funds. Life insurance companies are selectively
submarkets in Houston. Job growth through May of this year picking their spots and declining to romance any sort of
is +18,500. Employment hit 3.4 million (an all-time high for risk profile. In short, there is capital for office product, but
Houston), we had positive absorption of 240,815 square feet most buildings do not qualify for the usual lending suspects.
at mid-year, vacancy for Class A space was flat quarter over Anything maturing in the near term will have some difficult
quarter, and leasing activity is sharply up to 3.5 million square decisions to make.
feet. Houston remains among the leaders in workers returning
to the office, currently with Kastle Index’s highest return-to- The Reality
office percentage at 61.2%. Class A assets near residential Outstanding commercial real estate debt totals $5 trillion, with
and retail centers are performing well as employers work to $1.5 trillion secured by office product. Lenders are keeping
shorten commute times. a close eye on this, and it explains their reluctance to pursue
assets they would have pursued pre-COVID. Maturities are
For stable assets with long-term creditworthy leases, there starting to roll in as well as the problems that are tethered to
is still an appetite for new conventional debt. From a supply them.
side, the limited speculative development is a plus with only
1.8 million square feet of space underway. Several older assets Remote and hybrid work are the primary drivers of the
are acquiescing to their obsolete status and will eventually be demand reduction, and they are the new norm. Operational
taken out of the rental pool. stagflation will result in a “pushing-the-can” process with
incumbent lenders versus “kicking the can.” If you are facing a
Impairments to current CRE equity investors will present maturity default with an underperforming asset, lenders will
attractive opportunities during the next 24-to-36 months with likely assess your asset and consider an extension but expect
transaction velocity to increase as loans mature. to write an equity check if you receive one.
23Q2
Top Performing Office Buildings
Net Absorption
8,000,000
Noble Energy Center II July 2030 FM 1960 470,623
7,000,000
3,000,000
1200 Enclave Parkway January 2024 Katy Freeway 143,295
2,000,000
Jefferson Towers June 2030 CBD 123,040
1,000,000
2023 2024
23Q2
Market Statistics
Total Direct Sublease Total Previous Net Net Avg Direct
Submarket/ Inventory Availability Availability Availability Vacancy Vacancy Absorption Absorption Under Deliveries Asking Rate
Class SF Rate Rate Rate Rate Rate Current YTD Construction YTD (FSG)
CBD
A 35,760,129 26.2% 3.3% 29.5% 24.2% 24.0% (71,769) 36,379 386,323 0 $44.68
B 7,139,810 37.4% 2.0% 39.4% 31.6% 32.1% 38,269 106,862 0 0 $31.41
C 593,730 6.6% 0.0% 6.6% 14.2% 14.1% (784) (784) 0 0 $0.00
TOTAL 43,493,669 27.8% 3.1% 30.8% 25.3% 25.2% (34,284) 142,457 386,323 0 $42.47
Suburban
A 103,472,900 24.5% 4.2% 28.7% 24.6% 25.4% 84,838 237,934 1,046,331 0 $31.22
B 80,066,246 20.4% 1.0% 21.4% 20.2% 20.0% 17,556 (110,957) 390,713 227,848 $21.12
TOTAL 194,581,078 22.0% 2.6% 24.6% 22.1% 22.2% 70,061 98,358 1,437,044 227,848 $26.90
Houston Total
A 139,233,029 25.0% 4.0% 29.1% 24.1% 24.1% 13,069 274,313 1,432,654 0 $35.46
B 87,206,056 21.8% 1.1% 22.9% 20.9% 20.7% 55,825 (4,095) 390,713 227,848 $24.92
TOTAL 238,074,747 23.2% 2.7% 25.9% 22.1% 22.1% 35,777 240,815 1,823,367 227,848 $29.87
Submarkets by Class
Total Direct Sublease Total Previous Net Net Avg Direct
Submarket/ Inventory Availability Availability Availability Vacancy Vacancy Absorption Absorption Under Deliveries Asking Rate
Class SF Rate Rate Rate Rate Rate Current YTD Construction YTD (FSG)
TOTAL 6,168,731 16.0% 1.1% 17.1% 15.1% 14.7% (22,414) (58,047) 0 0 $24.54
Baytown
TOTAL 143,551 27.0% 0.0% 27.0% 27.0% 23.7% (4,679) (6,223) 0 0 $24.54
Bellaire
TOTAL 3,078,270 18.5% 3.9% 22.4% 22.0% 20.3% (51,359) (92,330) 0 0 $24.13
23Q2
Submarkets by Class (continued)
FM 1960
TOTAL 9,725,828 21.9% 5.2% 27.1% 19.6% 19.5% (9,288) (111,126) 0 0 $19.19
Greenway Plaza
TOTAL 10,822,921 24.1% 1.4% 25.6% 23.2% 23.7% 42,677 35,783 0 0 $33.70
Gulf Freeway/Pasadena
B 3,059,837 14.7% 0.7% 15.4% 15.1% 14.9% (5,771) (4,629) 90,000 0 $23.01
TOTAL 4,396,501 14.8% 0.5% 15.3% 12.8% 12.9% 4,068 (12,166) 191,000 0 $22.23
I-10 East
TOTAL 607,287 18.1% 0.0% 18.1% 18.2% 19.7% 9,005 14,808 0 0 $19.41
Katy Freeway
A 23,429,425 19.7% 5.0% 23.3% 18.8% 19.4% 155,351 222,001 355,694 0 $30.41
TOTAL 34,916,676 19.9% 3.5% 22.5% 18.6% 19.1% 173,803 256,390 355,694 0 $27.54
B 975,228 4.1% 0.0% 4.1% 1.4% 1.9% 5,164 9,639 48,170 0 $28.23
TOTAL 2,726,889 15.3% 8.1% 22.2% 13.2% 11.9% (35,107) (12,709) 48,170 0 $28.51
Kingwood/Humble
TOTAL 1,447,806 7.8% 0.0% 7.8% 7.6% 6.9% (11,583) 8,520 0 0 $20.52
NASA/Clear Lake
A 1,974,761 17.1% 2.4% 19.4% 16.4% 16.4% (115) (20,799) 400,000 0 $26.75
B 2,578,752 7.6% 1.8% 9.4% 8.0% 10.1% 149,930 155,914 152,000 106,000 $24.00
TOTAL 4,990,213 11.9% 1.9% 13.7% 11.7% 12.8% 150,205 145,144 552,000 106,000 $24.53
North Belt/Greenspoint
TOTAL 12,455,758 40.6% 0.8% 41.4% 41.8% 42.0% 31,624 100,912 0 0 $16.98
23Q2
Submarkets by Class (continued)
TOTAL 865,690 4.8% 0.0% 4.8% 4.8% 4.6% (993) (8,466) 0 0 $22.19
Northwest and Northwest Outlier
A 1,955,916 27.7% 4.4% 32.2% 26.3% 27.3% 19,772 75,913 0 0 $23.82
B 6,573,489 16.0% 0.5% 16.6% 14.0% 13.1% 92,220 70,858 0 121,848 $18.40
Richmond/Fountainview
TOTAL 1,080,058 11.5% 0.0% 11.5% 11.6% 11.9% 3,728 4,938 0 0 $16.85
San Felipe/Voss
TOTAL 5,252,824 29.8% 1.3% 31.0% 29.6% 29.0% (33,359) (72,367) 0 0 $28.29
South
B 347,288 11.5% 2.3% 13.8% 8.1% 6.7% (4,776) (298) 0 0 $25.47
C 135,387 8.0% 0.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 0 0 0 0 $20.00
TOTAL 482,675 10.5% 1.7% 12.2% 8.1% 7.1% (4,776) (298) 0 0 $23.94
TOTAL 1,232,152 12.6% 0.5% 13.2% 9.5% 9.9% 4,534 (6,522) 0 0 $20.13
Southeast
B 1,801,646 3.0% 0.0% 3.0% 1.3% 1.2% (2,648) (1,078) 0 0 $17.73
C 322,220 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0 0 $0.00
TOTAL 2,123,866 2.5% 0.0% 2.5% 1.1% 1.0% (2,648) (1,078) 0 0 $17.73
Southwest
A 1,334,274 21.1% 3.9% 25.0% 24.2% 21.9% (30,748) (15,057) 157,437 0 $18.42
TOTAL 9,211,127 16.1% 0.8% 16.9% 15.6% 14.9% (63,238) (48,510) 157,437 0 $19.05
TOTAL 1,411,762 8.3% 0.0% 8.3% 3.1% 3.1% 0 (11,516) 56,000 0 $23.75
The Woodlands
TOTAL 17,695,322 14.1% 3.0% 17.0% 14.0% 14.8% 135,450 245,226 56,743 0 $33.69
23Q2
Submarkets by Class (continued)
West Belt
TOTAL 6,397,221 28.3% 4.1% 31.9% 24.9% 25.2% 18,355 72,943 0 0 $26.79
West Loop/Galleria
TOTAL 24,033,842 29.1% 2.6% 31.7% 29.4% 29.0% (114,451) (184,157) 0 0 $33.69
Westchase
B 7,076,629 26.8% 3.0% 29.9% 27.7% 27.0% (48,882) (74,378) 20,000 0 $19.79
TOTAL 16,855,867 27.4% 4.6% 32.0% 28.8% 27.1% (292,052) (321,244) 20,000 0 $27.44
Submarket Map
Northeast
Outlier
1. CBD
2. Northwest
3. Allen Parkway
(Midtown)
4. Greenway Plaza Northwest
Kingwood/Humble
Outlier
5. West Loop/ Galleria
6. San Felipe/ Voss
7. Richmond/
Fountainview
8. Southwest/ Hillcroft
9. Westchase
Northeast
10. Southwest
Outlier
11. Bellaire
12. South Main/
Medical Center
13. Katy Freeway
Gulf Freeway/
14. FM 1960 Pasadena
15. West Belt
16. North Belt
6 continents
+1 713 830 2125
patsy.fretwell@colliers.com
Danny Rice
President
United States: 156 Houston
Canada: 45 +1 713 830 2134
Latin America: 20 danny.rice@colliers.com
Asia Pacific: 99
William Uhalt
EMEA: 112 Research Manager
Houston
+1 713 830 2137
william.uhalt@colliers.com
Contributor:
Greg Young
Senior Vice President
$4.5B Colliers Mortgage
+1 346 547 4896
in revenue
greg.young@colliers.com
18,000 +
been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No
responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are
encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting
on any of the material contained in this report.
professionals and staff
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