Chapter 5: Discrete Probability Distributions  A Poisson distributed random variable is

often useful in estimating the number of

a. Random Variables
occurrences over a specified interval of time
or space
 Examples of Poisson distributed random
variables: the number leaks in 100 miles of
pipeline, the number of arrivals at a car
wash in one hour.

 x = the number of
occurrences in an interval, f(x) = the
probability of x occurrences in an interval,
µ = mean number of occurrences in an
interval, e = 2.71828 (Euler’s number).
 mean and variance are equal.

b. Developing Discrete Probability Distributions e. Hypergeometric Probability Distribution

 Syarat, f(x) > 0 and ∑f(x) = 1
 The use of the relative frequency method to
develop discrete probability distributions
leads to what is called an empirical (經驗)
discrete distribution
 The expected value, E(x) = µ = ∑xf(x)
 The variance, Var(x) = s2 = S(x - µ)2f(x

Ex: Bob Neveready has removed two dead

batteries from a flashlight and inadvertently
c. Binomial Probability Distribution
mingled them with the two good batteries he
intended as replacements. The four batteries
look identical. Bob now randomly selects two of
the four batteries. What is the probability he
selects the two good batteries?
x= the number of successes, p= the probability
of a success on one trial, n= the number of
trials, f(x)= the probability of x successes in n
trials.

 Expected Value
 Variance

 Standard Deviation
d. Poisson Probability Distribution
  The letter z is used to designate the
 Mean
standard normal random variable.
 Variance

CH.6 : Continuous Probability Distributions

Example: Pep Zone

a. Uniform Probability Dist
 Expected Value of x
 Variance of x
b. Normal Probability Dist.
is the most important distribution for describing
a continuous random variable.
Pep Zone sells auto parts and supplies including
a popular multi-grade motor oil. When the
stock of this oil drops to 20 gallons, a
replenishment order is placed.
The store manager is concerned that sales are
being lost due to stockouts while waiting for a
replenishment order
It has been determined that demand during
replenishment lead-time is normally distributed
with a mean of 15 gallons and a standard
deviation of 6 gallons.

What is the probability that demand during

lead-time will exceed 20 gallons? P(x > 20) = ?
Characteristics:

 The distribution is symmetric; its skewness

measure is zero. trus cari di cumulative prob
 The entire family of normal probability
distributions is defined by its mean µ and its
standard deviation s
 The highest point on the normal curve is at
the mean, which is also the median and
mode.
If the manager of Pep Zone wants the
 The mean can be any numerical value:
probability of a stockout during replenishment
negative, zero, or positive.
lead-time to be no more than .05, what should
 The standard deviation determines the the reorder point be?
width of the curve: larger values result in
wider, flatter curves
 A normal distribution with a mean of 0 and
a standard deviation of 1 is said to have a
standard normal probability distribution
c. Approximation of Binomial Probabilities

Using Excel to Compute Normal Probabilities

d. Exponential Distribution

Cumulative Probabilities