8

TABLE OF CONTENTS

CHAPTER NO. TITLE PAGE NO.

ABSTRACT iii
LIST OF TABLES xi
LIST OF FIGURES xii
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS xiv

1 INTRODUCTION 1
1.1 TAMILNADU POLICE 1
1.2 CRIME ANALYSIS 2
1.3 CRIME FORECASTING 10
1.4 GIS IN CRIME ANALYSIS MAPPING 12
1.5 CRIME MAPPING 18
1.6 CRIME CLASSIFICATION 21
1.7 CLUSTERING 22
1.7.1 Spatial Clustering 24
1.8 SPATIAL DATA MINING 26
1.8.1 Temporal Data mining 26
1.9 GEOGRAPHIC SIMULATION MODELS
WITH GIS 27
1.10 PROBLEM DEFINITION 29
1.11 STRUCTURE OF THESIS 31
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CHAPTER NO. TITLE PAGE NO.

2 BACKROUND OF THE STUDY 34

2.1 INTRODUCTION 34
2.2 RELATED SUBSPACE CLUSTERING
ALGORITHMS 34
2.3 COMPARISON OF GRID BASED SUBSPACE
CLUSTERING ALGORITHMS 39
2.4 RELATED CLASSIFICATIONS ALGORITHMS 39
2.5 EVALUATION OF TRUE POSITIVE AND
FALSE NEGATIVE IN CLASSIFICATION 42
2.6 COMPARISON OF CLASSIFICATION
ALGORITHMS 43
2.7 EXISTING FORECASTING SIMULATIONS 43
2.8 AGGREGATED VS. DISAGGREGATE
ANALYSIS 50
2.9 CONCLUSION 52

3 LITERATURE SURVEY 54
3.1 INTRODUCTION 54
3.2 DIMENSIONS OF CRIME ANALYSIS 55
3.3 CRIME FORECASTING BASED ON
GEOGRAPHICAL MODELS 59
3.4 CRIME CLASSIFICATION ON BOTH
TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL 63
3.5 HOT SPOTTING TECHNIQUES AND
VISUALIZATION 66
3.6 SPATIAL CLUSTERING ALGORITHM
FOR HOTSPOT IDENTIFICATION 70
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CHAPTER NO. TITLE PAGE NO.

3.7 GEOGRAPHIC SIMULATION AND ANALYSIS 77

3.8 SCOPE OF THE THESIS 83
3.9 CONCLUSION 83

4 STRUCTURED CLASSIFICATION ALGORITHM 85

4.1 DESCRIPTION OF THE STUDY REGION 85
4.2 DESCRIPTION OF THE STUDY DATA 87
4.3 CRIME DATA COLLECTION 88
4.4 STRUCTURED CLASSIFICATION
ALGORITHM 89
4.5 CRIME HOTSPOT THEORIES OF
CRIME MAPPING 90
4.6 LIMITATIONS OF STRUCTURED
CLASSIFICATION ALGORITHM 92
4.7 STRUCTURED CLASSIFICATION METHOD 92
4.8 THE ANALYSIS OF CRIME INCIDENTS 93
4.9 PROPOSED ALGORITHM DESIGN 95
4.10 STRUCTURED CLASSIFICATION
ALGORITHM FOR CRIME
CLASSIFICATIONS 102
4.11 PROCESS OF STRUCTURED CRIME
CLASSIFICATION ALGORITHM 104
4.11.1 Data Collection and Formation for Input 106
4.11.2 Crime Characterization and Type 108
4.12 THE SPATIAL CRIME DATA 114
4.13 TEST RESULTS 116
4.14 CREATING CRIME HOTSPOT
AND COLD SPOT 117
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CHAPTER NO. TITLE PAGE NO.

4.15 RESULT COMPARISON 120

4.16 CONCLUSION 121

5 CLIQUE OPTIMIZATION ALGORITHM 122

5.1 INTRODUCTION 122
5.2 THE CLIQUE OPTIMIZATION ALGORITHM 123
5.2.1 Description of the Algorithm 123
5.2.2 Clique Optimization Algorithm
Pseudo Code 127
5.3 CLIQUE OPTIMIZATION IMPLEMENTATION 128
5.4 EXPERIMENT RESULTS 135
5.5 RESULT COMPARISON 136
5.6 CONCLUSION 137

6 SPATIAL CLUSTERING SIMULATION FOR

FORECASTING CRIME EVENTS AT HIGH
DENSITY CRIME AREAS 139
6.1 INTRODUCTION 139
6.2 MICRO LEVEL SIMULATION FOR
SHORT TERM FORECASTING 140
6.3 ME-SO LEVEL SIMULATION FOR
MEDIUM TERM FORECASTING 141
6.4 MACRO LEVEL SIMULATION FOR
LONG TERM FORECASTING 142
6.5 CUMULATIVE PERCENT
AGE CRIME RATIO (CPR) 143
6.6 TOTAL CRIME CLASSIFICATION (TC) 143
6.7 CRIME ATTRIBUTE RATIO (CAR) 144
6.8 FORECASTING VALIDATIONS 144
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CHAPTER NO. TITLE PAGE NO.

6.8.1 Materials and Methods

for Forecasting Techniques 145
6.9 PROCESSING OF SIMULATION FLOW 147
6.10 SHORT TERM FORECASTING
(MICRO LEVEL SIMULATIONS) 148
6.11 MEDIUM TERM FORECASTING
(ME-SO LEVEL SIMULATION) 149
6.12 LONG TERM FORECASTING
(MACRO LEVEL SIMULATIONS) 151
6.13 ANALYSIS OF CPR 153
6.14 ANALYSIS OF TC 155
6.15 ANALYSIS OF CAR 157
6.16 CONCLUSION 157

7 CONCLUSION AND SUGGESTIONS

FOR FUTURE WORK 159
7.1 INTRODUCTION 159
7.2 SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH FINDINGS 159
7.3 AN EVALUATION OF THE METHODOLOGY 161
7.4 SUGGESTIONS FOR FUTURE WORK 162

APPENDIX 1 FIRST INFORMATION

REPORT (FIR) 164
APPENDIX 2 POLICE STATION DIARY (PSD) 165

REFERENCES 166

LIST OF PUBLICATIONS 176

CURRICULUM VITAE 177

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LIST OF TABLES

TABLE NO. TITLE PAGE NO.

2.1 Comparison of Clustering Algorithms 39

2.2 Comparison of Classification Algorithms 43
4.1 Crime Hotspots Classified into Class 101
4.2 Crime Type and Description 109
4.3 Crime Database 2007-2008 110
4.4 Crime class Classification based on
Generalization 1 and 2 113
4.5 Identified Positive and Negative Characteristics
of Crimes Class Based on Generalization3 115
4.6 Comparison of Several Features in Classification 120
5.1 CLIQUE Optimization Algorithm Pseudo Code 127
5.2 Unconditional Grouped Classes and Descriptions 130
6.1 Structured from 2008 Crime Record with Crime
and Hotspot 150
6.2 Medium Term Forecasting Parameters 150
6.3 Structured form 2003 to 2008 Crime Records,
Test Data and Hotspot 151
6.4 Long Term Forecasting Parameters 152
6.5 CPR Value Calculated in Area Wise 154
6.6 Identification of Crime Hotspot and Cold Spot 155
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LIST OF FIGURES

FIGURE NO. TITLE PAGE NO.

1.1 Crime Analysis Model 8

2.1 2-Dimensional Dense Components are
Computed From the 1-Dimensional Dense
Components 36
2.2 Confusion Matrix 43
4.1 The Study Region 87
4.2 Crime Activities In Study Region 89
4.3 Classification for Crime Places 94
4.4 Classification of Crime Types 95
4.5 Classification for Crime Time 96
4.6 Algorithm Flow Design 98
4.7 Crime Db Denoted in Hotspots 99
4.8 Class Find In Similarity of Objects 100
4.9 Classification of Density and Sparse Area 100
4.10 Classifications of Crime Hotspots and Cold
Spots 102
4.11 Process of Structured Crime Classification
Algorithm 104
4.12 Classification Rule for Classification Algorithm
Program for Generalization = 1 111
4.13 Classification Rule for Classification Algorithm
Program for Generalization = 2 112
4.14 Classification Rule for Classification Algorithm
Program For Generalization = 3 114
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FIGURE NO. TITLE PAGE NO.

4.15 Hotspot and Cold Spot 119

4.16 Classification Comparison 121
5.1 Given Spatial Data Space 125
5.2 Finding X, Y Axis 125
5.3 Scale Points of Crime Cluster 126
5.4 Points of the Max out Clusters 126
5.5 Identify Dens Clusters and Sparse Areas Based T 127
5.6 Subspace Clustering Example 128
5.7 Clique Optimization Algorithm Flow Chart 129
5.8 Implementation Process of Clique Optimization
Algorithm 132
5.9 The X, Y Axis Parallel Histogram for Database
Splitting 133
5.10 Database Separation after Recursive
Optimization 135
5.11 Splitting Result of Clique Optimization 136
5.12 Comparison of Clique and Clique Optimization
with Scalability and Data Points 137
6.1 Simulation Work Flow 147
6.2 Attribute Name and Type 148
6.3 Day-To-Day Hotspot Analysis 149
6.4 Month-wise Forecasting Simulation for Crime
Data 151
6.5 Year-wise Forecasting Simulation for Crime
Data 153
6.6 Total Crime Classification Crime Report 156
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LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS

ABM - Agent-based modeling

ABN - Adaptive Bayes Network
ASM - Abstract State Machine
BIRCH - Balanced and Iterative Reducing and Clustering using
Hierarchies
CA - Cellular Automata
CA - Crime Analysis
CAR - Crime Attribute Ratio
CCIS - Crime Criminal Information System
CLARA - Clustering Giant Applications
CLARANS - Clustering giant Applications Primarily based on
CLIQUE - CLustering In QUEst
CPR - Cumulative Percentage Crime Ratio
DGD - Deflected Grid-based
DT - Decision Tree
EDA - Exploratory Knowledge Analysis
FIR - First Information Report
GCHL - Grid-Clustering Algorithm for High-dimensional very
Large Spatial Databases
GIS - Geographical Information System
KDE - Kernel Density Estimation
LQC - Location Quotients of crime
MABS - Multi-Agent-Based Simulation
MAFIA - Merging of Adaptive Intervals Approach
MAUP - Modifiable Areal Unit Problem
NDE - Network Density Estimation
NIJ - National Institute of Justice
 17

NV - Naive Bayes
PAI - Predictive Accuracy Index
PAM - Partitioning Around Medoids
PROCLUS - Projection-Based Clustering Algorithm
QL - Query Language
RIS - Ranks Interesting Subspaces
RS - Randomized Search
STARS - Space-Time Analysis of Regional Systems
STEM - Space- Time-Event model
STING - STatistical INformation Grid
SVM - Support Vector Machine
TC - Total Crime Classification