I NTRODUCTION

Philippines is endowed with rich water resources. It has varying sources coming from 421
principal rivers, 59 natural lakes, numerous individual streams and four major groundwater reservoirs.
When aggregated, this accounts for about 50,000 square kilometers (NSCB, 2013). Overall, the
Philippines’ total available freshwater resource is at 145,900 MCM/year based on 80% probability for
surface water, and groundwater recharge or extraction at 20,000 MCM/year (NWRB-SPM, 2003). With
this, groundwater contributes to 14% of the total water resource potential of the country (Greenpeace,
2007).

However, even with an abundant source of water, there is growing alarm on issues like water
scarcity and pollution, and most specially, the projected inability to meet the water demands of a
rapidly growing population (Gleick, 1995). Population growth linked with increasing demand on water
is creating increasing pressure on our current water supply. According to JICA (2002), if business-as-
usual scenarios and current population and development growth rates continue, water demand in the
Philippines for domestic, agricultural and industrial use will increase from 30 BCM in 1996 to 86.5 BCM
in 2025. With the varying availability of water depending on different factors such as precipitation, runoff
and evapotranspiration, there is a pressing need to manage the limited water supply and predict future
water shortages.

With these issues, a study which will link the relationship of groundwater supply with population
growth is crucial. It is important to determine up to when the available water supply can meet the
growing needs of an increasing population so that early on, the concerned stakeholders could plan how
to circumvent this future scenario.

This study will focus on the assessment of groundwater supply vis-à-vis the household demand
of Los Baños, Laguna. Los Baños, as a science community has continuously recorded an increase in
population and water demand. With this current scenario, this study aims to identify the relationship of
groundwater supply with households water demand. Furthermore, it aims to determine the period when
the available groundwater supply can no longer meet the demand of the predicted population of Los
Baños. Lastly, this study hopes to come up with recommendations on how to avert this future crisis.

Signiicance of the Study

This study could help the government of Los Baños and the province of Laguna, together with
other concerned stakeholders in coming up with proper management strategies forsustainable use of
water resources.

Objectives

This study aims to:

• Describe the water supply situation of Los Baños, Laguna from 1995-2012.

• Explain the water demand of households ofLos Baños, Laguna from 1995-2012.

• Determine the population of Los Baños, Laguna from 1995-2012.

• Identify the relationship of groundwater supply and population growth.

• Forecast the groundwater supply of Los Baños, Laguna up to year 2050 vis-à-vis projected
population growth.
2
R eview of Literature

Water Sources

Philippines generates its water supply from a number of different sources which include: rainfall,
surface water resources(i.e. rivers, lakes, and reservoirs) and groundwater resources. According to the
National Water Regulatory Board (NWRB), Philippines has 18 major river basins and 421 principal river
basins.

In terms of groundwater supply, the country has an extensive groundwater reservoir with an
aggregate area of about 50,000 sq km. According to the Mines and Geosciences Bureau (MGB) as cited
by Greenpeace, there are several groundwater basins underlaid in about 100,000 sq km of various rock
formationsin the Philippines. Some of these resources are found inNortheast Luzon, Central Luzon,
Laguna Lake basin, Cavite-Batangas-Laguna basin, Southeast Luzon, Mindoro Island, Negros Island,
Northeast Leyte, Ormoc-Kananga basin, Agusan-Davao basin, Occidental Misamis basin, and Lanao-
Bukidnon-Misamis basin.

Groundwater resources are continuously recharged by rain and seepage from rivers and lakes
(PEM, 2003; EMB, 2006).Overall, the Philippines’ total available freshwater resource is at 145,900
MCM/year based on 80 percent probability for surface water, and groundwater recharge or extraction
at 20,000 MCM/year (NWRB-SPM, 2003; PEM, 2003; ASEAN, 2005). The report also mentions that
groundwater contributes 14% of the total water resource potential of the country (Greenpeace, 2007).

Domestic uses of water

Water for domestic purposes includes water for drinking, use for public services, commercial
service establishments (such as hotels), and homes. It is estimated that 325 billion cubic meters of water
are used worldwide each year. The world average water use per person is 52 cubic meters per year
(Water Dialogues, 2013).

According to MWH Global and American Water Works Association, domestic water use accounts
for 69% indoor activities and 31% outdoor activities. Indoor activities include water use for kitchen and
toilet. Of this, 14% are wasted to leaks. Meanwhile, 31% are from outdoor activities such as for gardening
and cleaning of vehicles, etc.

In Metro Manila, the available estimates of water usage by sources of water and quality of water
service show that daily per capita consumption ranges from 20 liters up to 400 liters (JICA, 1992).

Major problems

Disparities between water supply and demand. Water supplyis declining as the world’s population
increases. Demands for water in many areas are exceeding supplies. Even though Philippines is endowed
with abundant water resources, this does not guarantee suficient supply. Distribution of water resources
vary in time and place because of different geographic and climatic conditions in the Philippines (Barba,
P, 2003). During dry season, highly populated areas of the country experience water shortage (PEM,
2004).

Assessing current and future groundwater supply 3

 According to US National Wildlife Federation, “limited supply of freshwater must meet the needs
of a human population that has tripled in the last century and continues to grow at almost 80 million
people per year.” On the demand side, slower population growth would help reduce pressure on limited
water supplies, thus, can provideenough time to develop creative solutions.

Lack of water allocation formula. Sectoral conlicts arise on how water is being used and allocated.
Different sectors have varying needs of water and to determine which sector deserves greater share
when conlicts in use of water rise remain unsolved. In the case of the Angat Reservoir, when the
Metropolitan Waterworks and Sewerage System (MWSS) withdraws water from the reservoir, portion
of the National Irrigators Association’s (NIA) water rights are taken away (Jose, A. and Cruz, N., 1999).

Different sectors are competing for the control and use of available water supply. Big corporations
which use huge amount of water in their operation are also competing for supply of water. For example,
in San Pablo City, Laguna, farmers and residents complain of declining water availability due to the
operation of a mineral water plant by Nestle Philippines, Inc. (Padilla, A., 2007).

Weak water use regulation and enforcement. Though there are a number of agencies involved in
implementing rules and regulation related to water use and despite of the number of policies formulated
to address this issue,regulation and enforcement are still lacking. A number of private companies are still
able to pollute sources of water without being penalized.

Ineficient use of water. Huge amount of water are being put into waste in distribution lines, irrigation
canals, and at homes. Another contributing factor to this is the high level of water loss due to leaking
pipes and illegal connections. Vast amounts of water are also wasted through ineficiency; growing
water-intensive crops in dry areas; using drinking water for other purposes (e.g., gardening, lushing
toilets and cleaning of vehicles) where non-potable “grey” water could be used.

Depletion of groundwater resources. Groundwater abstraction is being done in residential areas

and industrial areas wherein water providers have failed to provide water services. Indiscriminate
groundwater abstraction resulting to salt-intrusion is noticeable in Metro Manila, Cavite, Iloilo, and Cebu.

Threats to water availability. Excessive logging and shifting cultivation in the watersheds have triggered
widespread degradation and subsequent erosion and siltation of rivers, lakes, and reservoirs (Santos
1997, as cited in Jose and Cruz, 1999). Most of the watersheds in the Philippines are in critical condition
as manifested by recent and recurring calamities such as lashloods in Southern Leyte and Northern
Mindanao and an increase in frequency of El Niño events in Luzon which reduces water levels in dams.
When remains unaddressed, this could pose serious threats to future water supply.

Fragmented management. This is brought about by a number of different institutions that deal
with different water concerns and issues. At present, there are over 30 government agencies and
departments separately dealing with concerns on water supply, irrigation, hydropower, lood control,
pollution, watershed management, etc. This causes an overlap of work and conlicts among agencies
and results in a fractional water management plan that does not adequately meet the requirements for
sustainability (Barba, 2005).

4
Water Providers in the Philippines

Water Districts provide services to 15.3 million people in 700 cities and municipalities outside
Manila (Water Dialogues, 2013). As of 2003, there are 574 water districts in the country. These are
government-controlled municipal entities.

AGENCY TOTAL
Water Districts 574
Big private operators 8
Self provision 9
National Government, NGOs, LGUs Water Service As- 46
sociations, and Cooperatives

Sources of water include water districts, private operators, and cooperatives. Other sources of
water include unimproved water sources or roofwater and SSIP-supplied.

Since 2000, percent water coverage has been static. This implies that investments on water
sector are unparallel to the increasing demand caused by population growth and aging water systems
(Water Dialogues, year).

Projected Future Water Supply Scenarios in the Philippines

According to JICA, if the current water use and demand will continue along with population
growth rates and development growth rates, water demand in the country is expected to increase from
30 BCM in 1996 to 86.5 BCM in 2025.

Projected increase in water demand from 1996-2005 (JICA, )

Assessing current and future groundwater supply 5

 T heoretical Framework

Figure 1. DPSIR framework for groundwater supply.

This framework aims to deine the problem on sustaining groundwater supply vis-à-vis increasing
water demand of households. Generally, it describes the issue on groundwater supply. Water supply
problems arise from the increase in demand thereby exceeding the available supply for that time.
Through this framework, key concepts and keywords related to the problem are listed to identify their
links and relationships.

For the drivers, our drivers include population dynamics, households and use of water. For the
pressures, human activities that create stress on the water supply includes: domestic water consumption,
water abstraction, deforestation,urbanization and climate change. With these pressures, the state is
characterized by groundwater availability and water quality. The impacts of the pressures and drivers
include: depletion of groundwater supply, decrease in water supply and loss of amenity. To address
these impacts, the responses include: policy formulation, infrastructure development through creation
of additional pumps, eficient water allocation, and demand management.

6
M ethodology

Data gathering

Primary and secondary data were collected in this study. Data on the water supply scenario from
1995-2012 were gathered from the Laguna Water District while population data will be gathered from
the Municipality of Los Baños. Other secondary data were collected from books, journals and reports to
generate data that could help understand the present water scenario in the Philippines and to provide
information that could support and strengthen the indings of the study.

Data analysis

For assessing past, present and future water supply and demand, population and production
data were collected. The population and production data were analyzed on a yearly basis from 1995-
2012 and were interpreted graphically to understand the dynamics of population and water production.

When a series of observations are arranged with reference to their occurrences in a systematic
order, the resulting series is called a time series and conversely, a steady increase or decrease of the
time series is known as trend (Patra, 2001). In Time Series Models the past behavior of time series
data set is examined to infer something about its future behavior (Gupta, 2008). In this study the trend
of population for the demand and the production for the supply was calculated using average values of
population and production using Microsoft Ofice Excel 2007.

R esults and Discussion

POPULATION DYNAMICS IN LOS BAÑOS, LAGUNA

Description of the study site

Los Baños is a irst class community with a total land area of 5,422 has. It is composed of 14
barangays. It is bordered on the south and southwest by Mt. Makiling, on the north by Laguna de Bay,
on the northwest by Calamba City and on the east by the town of Bay.

Los Baños was declared as a science city because of the various research and science
institutions found in the area. It houses the University of the Philippines at Los Baños (UPLB) and
various international and national research institutions like the Ecosystems Research and Development
Bureau (ERDB), ASEAN Centre of Biodiversity (ACB), Forest Products Research and Development
Institute (FPRDI), International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), International Potato Center (IPC),
Biotech, PCARRD, PCAMMRD, Institute of Plant Breeding, among others.

Aside from the research institutions in the area, there are also 21 places along with 42 resorts
that can be found in Los Baños (EIA Report, 2012). There are also historical landmarks, museums,
botanical gardens, shrines and recreation areas that are found in the area. Also situated in Los Baños,
Laguna is the Makiling Forest Reserve which was recently declared as an ASEAN natural heritage park.

Assessing current and future groundwater supply 7

 Figure 2. Map of Los Baños, Laguna (Wikipedia, 2013).

Socio-economic proile of Los Baños, Laguna

According to the Socio-Economic Proile and Physical Proile of Los Baños in 2007, Los Baños has
a total population of 85, 722 comprised of 21,031 households (Table 1). From 2007 to 2010, there was an
increase of 16,162 in its total population (Census of Population and Housing, 2010).

As of May 2010, the total population of Los Baños is 101,884 (NSCB). The average household size
is 4.14 (BMIS, 2005). It has a total population density of 1,451 per square kilometer. As of 2000, its growth
rate is estimated at 2.93% (NSO, 2000). Half of the population is comprisedof female.

Table 1. Population per barangay of Los Baños, Laguna.

BARANGAY HOUSEHOLDS MALE FEMALE TOTAL

Anos 1,588 3,209 3,398 6,607
Bagong Silang 159 317 319 636
Bambang 1,719 3,492 3,439 6,931
Batong Malake 2,884 5,592 5,746 11,338
Baybayin 379 711 784 1,495
Bayog 1,747 3,635 3,676 7,311
Lalakay 986 2,071 1,987 4,058
Maahas 1,304 2,632 2,571 5,203
Malinta 1,385 2,832 2,877 5,709
Mayondon 3,371 6,822 6,788 13,610
Putho-Tuntungin 1,559 3,196 3,329 6,525
San Antonio 2,404 4,725 4,881 9,606
Tadlac 691 1,437 1,585 3,022
Timugan 853 1,864 1,807 3,671
Total 21,031 42,535 43,187 85,722
8 Source: Socio-Economic and Physical Proile, 2007
 The most populated barangay is Mayondon with a population of 13, 610 followed by Batong
Malaki with 11, 338. The least populated barangay is Bagong Silang with only 636 individuals. Bagong
Silang is situated in the Makiling Forest Reserve. Most of the families in the area used to be informal
settlers that inhabit the area.

The ratio of female to male is 1:1. Fifty percent (50.38) or 43, 187 of the total population are
female. Table 2 shows the ratio of male to female population.As to the age of population, Los Baños can
be considered as a fairly young community. Majority of the population is in the age group of 0-29 years
old. This is attributed to the number of work opportunities available in the area. Meanwhile, there are 594
individuals aged 80 and up.

Table 2. Total population of Los Baños by age group and sex.

AGE MALE FEMALE TOTAL

0-4 3,998 3,629 7,627
5 to 9 4,916 4,466 9,382
10 to 14 4,286 4,058 8,344
15 -19 4,223 4,288 8,511
20-24 4,140 4,610 8,750
25-29 4,039 4,250 8,289
30-34 3,260 3,294 6,554
35-39 2,960 3,028 5,988
40-44 2,645 2,713 5,358
45-49 2,267 2,353 4,620
50-54 1,878 1,974 3,852
55-59 1,408 1,428 2,836
60-64 866 971 1,837
65-69 686 781 1,467
70-74 433 554 987
80+ 199 395 594
All Ages 42,535 43,187 85,722
Source: BMIS, 2007

For the fertility and mortality rate of Los Baños, Los Baños has 0.60% mortality rate in 2007
compared to its fertility rate which is 2.15% (BMIS, 2007). Low mortality rate in Los Baños can be
attributed to the medical services and assistance being provided by the local government and other
institutions (EIA Report, 2012). This implies that Los Baños is a growing community because of its
2.93% growth rate (NSO, 2000). Fertility and mortality rate of Los Baños is shown in Table 3.

Table 3. Fertility and mortality rate of Los Baños from 2006-2007.

FERTILITY MORTALITY FERTILITY MORTALITY

YEAR POPULATION*
NUMBER NUMBER RATE (%) RATE (%)
2006 85,586 2,067 546 2.41 0.63
2007 88,093 1,902 537 2.15 0.60
Source: NSO, 2000

Assessing current and future groundwater supply 9

 For the number of houses in Los Baños, there are 18,882 houses as per record of the BMIS in
2006 (Table 4). Majority of the houses are found in the barangay of Mayondon. It is composed of 2,893
houses. It is closely followed by barangay Batong Malake with 2,727 houses; San Antonio with 2,136
and Bayog with 1,574. The least number of houses could be found in the barangays of Bagong Silang
(144), Baybayin (330) and Tadlac (613).

Table 4. Number of houses in Los Baños.

BARANGAY NO. OF HOUSES

Anos 1,469
Bagong Silang 144
Bambang 1,425
Batong Malake 2,727
Baybayin 330
Bayog 1,574
Lalakay 869
Maahas 1,186
Malinta 1,228
Mayondon 2,893
Putho-Tuntungin 1,454
San Antonio 2,136
Tadlac 613
Timugan 834
Total 18,882
Source: BMIS, 2007

Some of the houses in Los Baños are commercial/industrial agricultural houses, duplexes,
bungalows, extensions, apartments, 1-3 storey’s type and semi-mansions.

In terms of income, the average monthly income of the people in Los Baños is P7,652.26 (BMIS,
2006). This is below the poverty threshold in Region 4 which is P12,452. Table 6 presents the monthly
income of the heads of the family in Los Baños.

Table 6. Monthly income of heads of family in Los Baños.

INCOME NO. OF HEAD OF THE FAMILY

Below 1, 999 2,286
2,000-2,999 2,756
3,000-3,999 3,234
4,000-4,999 2,209
5,000-9,999 7,476
10,000-14,999 2,481
15,000-19,999 1,045
20,000 above 1,162
Total 22,649
Source: BMIS, 2007

10
 WATER SUPPLY IN LOS BAÑOS, LAGUNA

Water sources of Los Baños

The primary source of water in Los Baños is the Laguna Water District (LWD). By virtue of PD
198 or the Provincial Local Water Utilities Act of 1973, LWD has the authority to provide potable water
to communities and at the same time control and regulate the development of water resources within its
area of jurisdiction.

Formed in 1977, it was originally called Los Baños Waterworks and was later renamed Los
Baños Water District. With the annexation of the towns of Bay and Calauan it was called the Laguna
Water District.

As of 2012 record, it services 87,300 populations of Los Baños divided into: residential,
government and commercial ofices. The total water consumption is at 6,988,415 cubic meters. Aside
from the water from LWD, other sources of water include deep well, artesian well, creeks, river, spring
and lakes (EIA Report, 2012).

Water Pump Stations in Los Baños

There are nine active pump stations in Los Baños situated in different barangays of Los Baños
(Figure 3 and Table 7). These include the barangays of Baybayin, Bayog, Timugan, Lalakay, Maahas,
Batong Malake, and Putho Tuntungin. The water sources are mostly from groundwater.

Table 7. Pump stations in Los Baños, Laguna.

PUMP STATIONS WATER SOURCE LOCATION (BRGY) YEAR OF OPERATION

VILLEGAS 1 Groundwater Baybayin 1959 -2010
VILLEGAS 2 Groundwater Baybayin 2010 – present
LOPEZ HEIGHTS Groundwater Timugan 1987 – present
LALAKAY Groundwater Lalakay 2004 – present
MAAHAS Groundwater Maahas 2002 – present
MALINTA Groundwater Malinta 1980 – 1995
UMALI Groundwater Batong Malake 1973 – present
BAYOG Groundwater Bayog 2010 – present
VEGA Groundwater Batong Malake 2003 – present
STA. RITA Groundwater San Antonio 1998 – 2010
UPCO Groundwater Batong Malake 1995 – present
STP Groundwater Putho Tuntungin 2001 – present
DAMPALIT Spring Lalakay 1950’s -2006
Source: Laguna Water District, 2013

The total rated capacity of existing and active LWD pump stations is 6,940 gallons per minute or
is equivalent to 13,807,910.275 cubic meters per year of water that can be supplied to the needs of the
present and future population.

Assessing current and future groundwater supply 11

 Table 8. Rated Capacity of Pump stations.

RATED CAPACITY
PUMP STATIONS
(Gallons per Minute)
VILLEGAS 2 1,400
LOPEZ HEIGHTS 500
LALAKAY 520
MAAHAS 1,270
UMALI 500
BAYOG 1,200
VEGA 1,000
UPCO 350
STP 200
Source: Laguna Water District, 2013

Figure 3. Los Baños Water DistributionSystem showing Pump stations (LWD, 2013)

12
Population and Population Served Los Baños, Laguna (1995-2050) - LWD

Figure 4 shows the trend in the population of Los Baños and the population served by LWD.
Also shown are the projected population and the future service connections. Population in Los Baños
is 71,673 in 1995 and it shoots up to 107,942 people as of 2012 for an increase of 33.6% for a period
of 17 years and with present trend and a growth rate of 2.93 the population is predicted to be tripled to
323,433 by the year 2050.

As the population increased the population served by LWD increases also from 45,580 in 1995
to 87,300 in 2012. These were taken from the number of service connections from the said years 9,741
and 18,311 respectively. LWD used a factor of 5 individuals per household or service connections.

With the increasing population and the trend in the number of service connections by the year
2036 all the population of Los Baños will have an access to the water service of LWD as depicted in
Figure 4.

Water demand and Water production of Los Baños

In terms of production and demand (Figure 5), Los Baños produces 5,022,499.65 cubic meters
of water in 1995. This is greater than the demand in the study area which is only 4,970,522.55 cubic
meters. From 1995 to 2012, 17 years after, the production of water increased to 8,720,196.27 cubic
meters this is to answer the increased to the demand by 7,485,769.60 cubic meters. With the increasing
demand LWD also increase its production to answer the population’s need for safe and potable for their
well-being. Based from the trends from 1995-2012 in every increase in demand there is an increase of
1.42% for the production of water.

By 2050, with the increasing population the demand will escalate to a total of 22,430,107.94
cubic meters and LWD should be able to produce a total of 24,823,004.69 cubic meters of water. With
the current total rated capacity or the maximum sustainable yield of 13,807,910.275 cubic meters, the
existing pump stations of LWD will only be able to support water dependent human activities by 2029.

C onclusionAND
CONCLUSION andRECOMMENDATIONS
Recommendations
Based on the results of this study, the following conclusion and recommendations were drawn:

1. Water, as a prime necessity, though renewable is not constant from year to year or month to
month. Precipitation, runoff, and evaporation all change from year to year, in some years less
water will be available for allocation than in others.

2. In year 2029, groundwater available at the 9 pumping stations in Los Baños may no longer be
suficient to meet the household’s water demand during that time.

3. More research and studies should be funded for the determination of total full potential of
groundwater resources in Los Baños.

4. To prevent depletion of groundwater supply and increase the water supply, the Water District of
Los Baños has to construct new pumps that could provide new sources of water.

Assessing current and future groundwater supply 13

 Figure 4. Population and Population Served.

Figure 5. Water Demand and Production.

14
 5. The government of Los Baños has to ind ways to facilitate groundwater recharge at a faster
way. This may mean creation of lood control infrastructures that could mitigate factors that
slows down groundwater recharge.

6. Policies that could address the causes of slower groundwater recharge such as: deforestation
and increasing number of residential areas and road infrastructures could also be created.

7. Lesser per capita water consumption and leakage control should also be promoted.

REFERENCES

Census of Population and Housing. 2010.

Dano, A. et al. 2010. Vulnerability assessment of Mt. Makiling Watershed. Ecosystems Research and
Development Bureau. Los Baños, Laguna.

EIA Report of the Proposed UPLB IT Park. Unpublished Report. 2012. School of Environmental Science
and Management. UPLB. Los Baños, Laguna.

Gleick, P. 1995. Human Population and Water: To the Limits in the 21st Century. Paciic Institute
for Studies in Development, Environment and Security. Oakland, California. [cited 2013 August 11].
Retrieved at http://www.aaas.org/international/ehn/isheries/gleick.htm

Gupta S. P. and Gupta M. P. 2008. Business Statistics. Sultan Chand & Sons Educational Publishers,
New Delhi

Greenpeace. 2007. The state of water in the Philippines. Quezon City, Philippines. Retrieved at _____
________________________________ on July 29, 2013.

Laguna Water District. 2013

National Statistics Coordination Board. n/a. Philippine Water Resources. [cited 2013 August 11].
Available from http:www.nscb.gov.ph/peenra/Publications/asset/water.pdf

National Water Resources Council. 1982. Rapid Assessment of Water Supply Sources. Province of
Laguna. Report No. 36 Volume 24.

Patra, K. C. 2001. Hydrology and water resources engineering. New Delhi: Narosa Publishing House

Socio-Economic and Physical Proile of Los Baños, Laguna. 2007.

The Water Dialogues. The Philippine Water Situation. [cited 2013 August 11]. Retrieved at http://www.
waterdialogues.org/documents/PhilippinesCountryContext.pdf

Assessing current and future groundwater supply 15