Schiphol Group:440k ATM cap and

potential air cargo implications

March 2023

Final presentation

6/14/2023. All rights reserved

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6/14/2023. All rights reserved
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Impact of Air Transport Movements (ATMs) cap on Schiphol air cargo traffic
Executive summary

Cargo operations at Schiphol are expected to be impacted disproportionally

by the limitation of the annual ATMs at schiphol to 440K

Reducing 2030 schiphol The findings enable future air cargo operations strategic planning for air
air cargo traffic by cargo stakeholders and policymakers

-29%
vs 2021
9 key findings of the study impacting various stakeholders of the air cargo
community are summarized below:
• A cap on 440k ATMs will likely result in a -29% traffic drop in 2030 compared to
2021, up to -46% in a pessimistic scenario; freighter traffic is expected to be
impacted most significantly (-60%)
Utilization of warehouse • Far East and Middle East inbound trade lanes expected to be most severely
capacity constrained when introducing ATM caps
• High tech (especially from inbound Far East), raw materials and machinery parts

~50% •
commodity volumes expected to be impacted most in terms of tonnage
The Netherlands air trade will become more important for Schiphol, but Schiphol
will become less important as main gateway to carry Netherlands air trade
In 2030
• Within trucking distance of Schiphol, well-connected alternative air cargo gateways
exist to carry cargo volumes which cannot be accommodated at Schiphol
• Ripple effects can severely impact Schiphol’s 2030 air cargo traffic outlook up to a
Ripple effects total of ~130-210K traffic tonnes
• Excess handling warehouse capacity at Schiphol will grow, as only half of the
identified which potentially warehouse capacity is expected to be utilized in 2030
reduce cargo traffic even • Relocation of Dutch shippers unlikely as a result from the 440k ATM cap
further in 2030 • Cross-border trucking will reduce for The Netherlands, but a 440k ATMs cap likely
to drive an increase at the European level
Confidential – © Accenture 2023 1
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Agenda

Historical air cargo development

Cargo community’s view on Schiphol

Air cargo outlook at 440k ATMs cap

ATMs cap and implications on warehouse capacity

2
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 Pre-financial crisis cargo traffic and ATM1 growth at Schiphol
was significant, post-financial crisis it has been relatively flat
Schiphol air cargo traffic, 1992-2022
Million tonnes
+5.8% +0.9% COVID

2 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.7

1.3 1.4 1.4
1 Financial crisis caused
0.7
massive decline in
traffic in 2009
0
1992 2007 2008 2009 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Schiphol Air Traffic Movements, 1992-2022 Freighter Passenger Total
Thousand ATMS
+1.5%
+4.1%
600 497 499 497
436 429 391 398
18 16 14
400 18 18 14 267 16
239 227
16 17
200
0
19922 2007 2008 2009 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
In 2017, Schiphol was operating at peak cargo traffic throughput of 1.8M
tonnes with ~18k freighter ATMs, while operating close to 500k ATMs limit
1) ATM stands for “Air Traffic Movements”, representing the number of arrivals and departures by commercial aircraft at Schiphol (excluding general aviation); 2) Freighter ATMs not
3
available; Source: Schiphol traffic and transport statistics 1992-current; Freighter ATMs year 2020-2022 Seabury Capacity Tracking Database; 6/14/2023. All rights reserved
Copyright © Accenture
 Schiphol’s air cargo capacity is heavily reliant on a limited
number of widebody aircraft movements

Schiphol ATMs and cargo capacity by aircraft type, 2019 widebody aircraft account for
Thousand movements, million tonnes

497 2.7
10% Narrow body passenger
~20%
Narrow body freighter
of Schiphol’s movements …
43% Wide body passenger
82%
… providing

46% Wide body freighter

~90%
15%
3%
Air cargo capacity of Schiphol’s air cargo capacity
Movements

Allocation of 60k ATMs reduction over aircraft types is crucial for

Schiphol’s air cargo capacity outlook
Note: As narrowbody passenger aircraft represent a limited share of Schiphol Airport air cargo capacity and are generally not fully utilized by airlines, air cargo capacity offered by
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narrowbody passenger aircraft will be neglected in subsequent analysis; Source: Seabury Cargo Capacity Tracking database; Schiphol airport traffic statistics (2019) 6/14/2023. All rights reserved
Copyright © Accenture
Agenda

Historical air cargo development

Cargo community’s view on Schiphol

Air cargo outlook at 440k ATMs cap

ATMs cap and implications on warehouse capacity

5
6/14/2023. All rights reserved
Copyright © Accenture
 All stakeholders recognize the importance of Schiphol as a
major enabler for air cargo trade growth in Europe
High-level overview of interview insights Level of importance expressed by stakeholder group

Stakeholders in the air cargo 1 Importance of 2 Importance of 3 Ripple effects 4 Alternative thoughts
value-chain Schiphol and growth freighters on ATM cap
Shipper Requires airport that
Some commodities
Direct connectivity is can accommodate
require main deck
vital; already using growth in shipping Additional trucking
capacity
other airports volumes
kilometers and
Freight forwarder therefore emissions
Need flexibility to fly
Some easier than demand peaks of Without minimum are inevitable
others, but all goods time-sensitive cargo
can be rerouted Stakeholders expect traffic it is necessary
Ground handler strong growth in air to stop investing and
Freighters cause Reducing emissions of
Reducing footprint is a peaks in volumes and
cargo demand, reduce footprint airside equipment can
serious option when drive revenue also help
traffic is not sufficient looking at Schiphol to
Carrier accommodate growth Belly network is A minimum level of Consider the specific
Freighters are vital insufficient to run service is needed to impact of aircraft
and a minimum proper cargo division continue operations types at Schiphol
frequency is key

Freighters are perceived crucial in supporting the cargo industry at

Schiphol
6
Source: Interviews with industry experts, Seabury Cargo analysis (February 2023) 6/14/2023. All rights reserved
Copyright © Accenture
Agenda

Historical air cargo development

Cargo community’s view on Schiphol

Air cargo outlook at 440k ATMs cap

ATMs cap and implications on warehouse capacity

7
6/14/2023. All rights reserved
Copyright © Accenture
 Reducing ATMs by -12% to 440k affects air cargo
at Schiphol disproportionally, up to -18% in 2030
Expected difference between 500k and 440k ATMs1 cap scenario in 2030F

Air Transport Air Cargo Capacity Air Cargo Traffic

Movements Tonnes Tonnes

Total -12% -450k -18%

(-60k) (-20%) (-245k)

Freighter -41% -420k -40%

(-4k) (-41%) (-260k)

Widebody belly -2% -30k +2%

(-2k) (-2%) (+20k)

Note: the expected impact on air cargo in 2030 is derived from comparing Schiphol’s air cargo forecast at the current capacity of 500k
ATMs per year, with the forecast at a reduced capacity of 440k ATMs per year; 1) Based on the 440k ATM base forecast scenario, Source:
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Seabury Cargo analysis 6/14/2023. All rights reserved
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A 440k ATMS cap will likely result in a -29% traffic drop in
2030 compared to 2021, up to -46% in a pessimistic scenario
Schiphol air traffic outlook, 2018-2030F From 500k ATMs in 2030F...
Million tonnes …to 440k ATMs base scenario
2.0
1.80 Air cargo Mixed
1.75
1.63 volumes Freighters carriers

1.5 1.40 -18% -3,900 -40%

-29%
1.44 in weight movements cargo capacity
1.21
1.15
1.0 -17% From 440k ATMs base in 2030F...
.. to 440k ATMs ..to 440k ATMs
0.87 positive scenario pessimistic scenario

0.5 Capacity Capacity Ripple

Actuals 440K ATMs optimistic home carrier home carrier effects
Unconstrained forecast 440K ATMs base
500K ATMs 440K ATMs pessimistic +8% -16% -210k
0.0 By retaining By retiring tonnes
2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 freighters freighters

2030F base scenario outlook of 1.15M tonnes is well below the 1.75M peak in 2017
Sources: Seabury Global Trade database, Schiphol annual traffic statistics, Seabury Traffic estimation model, Boeing ASK air forecast, IATA air forecast, Seabury Capacity Tracking
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database, Seabury Cargo analysis (February 2023); 6/14/2023. All rights reserved
Copyright © Accenture
Agenda

Historical air cargo development

Cargo community’s view on Schiphol

Air cargo outlook at 440k ATMs cap

ATMs cap and implications on warehouse capacity

10
6/14/2023. All rights reserved
Copyright © Accenture
 Excess handling warehouse capacity at Schiphol will grow;
only half of capacity expected to be utilized in 2030
Schiphol air cargo traffic forecast vs. planned handling warehouse capacity
Million tonnes
Expected completion of two new handler facilities
adding ~310k tonnes in handling capacity

2.4 1st line handling

warehouse capacity
2.2

-21% -51%
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
“Decreasing traffic will directly
0.8 incur in proportionate downsizing
0.6 Actuals 440K ATMs optimistic of labor force, violent price
0.4 Unconstrained forecast 440K ATMs base swings, loss of service quality and
0.2 500K ATMs 440K ATMs pessimistic Excess capacity vacant buildings in the long term’’
Handler
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Cargo handling facilities may be forced to downsize as a response

Note: Historic and future warehouse capacity based on design production efficiency per handler as provided by Schiphol [tonnes/m2];
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Source: Seabury Cargo analysis (February 2023) 6/14/2023. All rights reserved
Copyright © Accenture