‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ‬

‫ﺃﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﺮﺍﻣﺞ ﻭ ﻣﺮﺍﺟﻌﺘﻬﺎ‬

‫ﻭ ﻁﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺤﺮﺝ‬

‫‪P‬‬
‫‪E‬‬
‫‪R‬‬
‫‪T‬‬
‫&‬
‫‪C‬‬
‫‪P‬‬
‫‪M‬‬
 ‫ﻋﻠﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺳﺏ‬

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‫ﻋﻠﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺳﺏ‬

‫ﺃﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﺮﺍﻣﺞ ﻭﻣﺮﺍﺟﻌﺘﻬﺎ ) ‪Program evaluation and review‬‬

‫‪ (technique‬ﻭﻁﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺤﺮﺝ ) ‪(Critical path method‬‬
‫ﻣﻘﺪﻣﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﻣﺎ ﺗﻘﻮﻡ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻜﺒﻴﺮﺓ ﺑﻌﻤﻞ ﻣﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﺿﺨﻤﺔ ﻭﻣﻌﻘﺪﺓ‪ ،‬ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﻜﺒﻴﺮﺓ‬
‫ﺗﺘﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺨﻄﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻗﺒﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﺍﺯﻳﺔ ﻹﻧﺠﺎﺯﻫﺎ‪ .‬ﻓﻤﺜﻼ ﻋﻨﺪ‬
‫ﺻﻨﻊ ﻣﻨﺘﺞ ﺟﺪﻳﺪ ﻟﻴﻨﺰﻝ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﻓﺈﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺍﻟﻜﺜﻴﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺨﻄﻮﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬
‫ﻳﺠﺐ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻤﺮ ﺑﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﺠﺪﻳﺪ ﻫﺬﺍ‪ .‬ﻓﺎﻟﻤﻨﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﺠﺪﻳﺪ ﻳﺤﺘﺎﺝ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺑﺤﻮﺙ ﺳﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﻭﺗﻄﻮﻳﺮ‪،‬‬
‫ﺍﺧﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺘﺞ ‪ ،‬ﺑﺤﻮﺙ ﺗﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻛﻴﻔﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻠﻴﻒ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻜﺬﺍ‪.‬‬
‫ﻟﺬﺍ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻜﻢ ﻓﻲ ﺗﺨﻄﻴﻂ ﻭﺗﻨﻔﻴﺬ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺑﺎﻟﻮﺳﺎﺋﻞ ﺍﻟﻘﺪﻳﻤﺔ ﺃﺻﺒﺢ ﻣﺴﺘﺤﻴﻼ‪ .‬ﻭﻓﻲ ﻫﺬﻩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺳﻴﻜﻮﻥ ﺗﺮﻛﻴﺰ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﻬﺘﻤﺔ ﺑﺘﻨﻔﻴﺬ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻓﻲ ﻣﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﺳﻴﻨﺘﻬﻲ‬
‫ﻓﻴﻪ ﺇﻛﻤﺎﻝ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ .‬ﻭﺣﻴﺚ ﺍﻧﻪ ﻳﻮﺟﺪ ﻛﺜﻴﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻷﺣﺪﺍﺙ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺆﺛﺮ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﻭﻗﺖ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻧﻪ ﺑﺎﻷﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﺑﻤﻜﺎﻥ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻮﺟﺪ ﻋﻨﺪﻧﺎ " ﻛﻤﺪﺭﺍء ﻣﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ‬
‫ﻣﺜﻼ‪ "..‬ﻭﺳﻴﻠﺔ ﺍﺗﺨﺎﺫ ﻗﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺗﺴﺎﻋﺪﻧﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻹﺟﺎﺑﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﺳﺌﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪ - 1‬ﻣﺘﻰ ﻧﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻨﺘﻬﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ؟‬
‫‪ - 2‬ﻣﺎ ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺇﺫﺍ ﺣﺪﺙ ﺗﺄﺧﺮ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻱ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺃﻭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺨﻄﻮﺍﺕ؟‬
‫‪ - 3‬ﻣﺎ ﻫﻮ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻓﻲ ﻭﻗﺘﻪ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﺧﻄﻂ ﻟﻪ؟‬
‫‪ - 4‬ﻛﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻹﺿﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻣﻤﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻧﺘﺤﻤﻠﻬﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﺃﺭﺩﻧﺎ ﺃﻥ ﻧﻌﺠﻞ ﺑﺎﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻗﺒﻞ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺪﺩ؟‬
‫‪“Program evaluation and review‬‬ ‫ﺃﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﺮﺍﻣﺞ ﻭﻣﺮﺍﺟﻌﺘﻬﺎ‬
‫"‪technique "PERT‬ﻭﻁﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺤﺮﺝ ‪“Critical path method‬‬
‫"‪"CPM‬ﻫﻤﺎ ﻭﺳﻴﻠﺘﻴﻦ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺳﺎﺋﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻄﻴﻂ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻜﻢ ﻓﻲ ﺗﻨﻔﻴﺬ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﻜﺒﻴﺮﺓ‬
‫ﻭﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﻟﻺﺟﺎﺑﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﺳﺌﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ‪ .‬ﻭ ﻟﻨﺠﺎﺡ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻠﺘﻴﻦ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻄﻴﻂ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺤﻜﻢ‬
‫ﻓﻘﺪ ﺍﺳﺘُﻌﻤﻠﺖ ﻓﻲ ﻛﺜﻴﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻼﻗﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺤﻜﻮﻣﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺑﺪﺃ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺃﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﻭﻣﺮﺍﺟﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ) ‪ (PERT‬ﻭﻁﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺤﺮﺝ‬
‫)‪ (CPM‬ﻣﻨﺬ ﺃﻭﺍﺧﺮ ﺍﻟﺨﻤﺴﻴﻨﻴﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺗﺨﻄﻴﻂ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻜﺒﻴﺮﺓ ﻭﻣﺘﺎﺑﻌﺔ ﺗﻨﻔﻴﺬﻫﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻳﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﺃﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﻭﻣﺮﺍﺟﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺮﺍﻣﺞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻘﺴﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻋﺪﺩ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬
‫ﺗﺴﺒﻖ ﻭ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺘﺒﻊ ﺯﻣﻨﻴﺎ ﻭ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻨﻔﺬ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻧﻔﺲ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﻬﺘﻢ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻷﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺑﺎﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﻹﻧﻬﺎء ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺪﺧﻞ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﻨﺼﺮ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺃﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺗﻨﻔﻴﺬ ﺃﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﻬﺘﻢ ﻁﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺤﺮﺝ )‪ (CPM‬ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻋﻨﺼﺮ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺑﻌﻨﺼﺮ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﺾ ﺯﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺗﻨﻔﻴﺬ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺑﺰﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺗﻨﻔﻴﺬ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﻭ ﺗﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﺨﻄﻂ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﻳﻠﺔ ﻟﺘﺨﻔﻴﺾ ﺯﻣﻦ‬

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 ‫ﻋﻠﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺳﺏ‬

‫ﺗﻨﻔﻴﺬ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺑﺄﻗﻞ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻣﻤﻜﻨﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻗﺪ ﺗﻢ ﺗﻄﻮﻳﺮ ﺃﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﻭﻣﺮﺍﺟﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺮﺍﻣﺞ‬
‫ﻭﻁﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺤﺮﺝ )‪ (CPM‬ﻭ ﺍﻧﺪﻣﺎﺟﻬﺎ ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﻓﻲ ﺇﻁﺎﺭ ﻣﺎ ﻳﺴﻤﻰ ﺑﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺷﺒﻜﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎﻝ ‪.Network Analysis‬‬

‫‪ -‬ﺃﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬
‫ﻳﻨﻈﺮ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﻱ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻧﻪ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻗﺒﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﺍﺯﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻛﻞ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺗﺴﻤﻰ ﻧﺸﺎﻁﺎ‪ .‬ﻛﻞ ﻧﺸﺎﻁ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﻳﺘﻄﻠﺐ ﺇﻧﻔﺎﻕ ﺷﻲ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻣﻦ ﻫﻨﺎ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ )‪ (Activity‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻧﻪ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻣﻬﻤﺔ ﺗﺘﻄﻠﺐ ﺃﻧﻔﺎﻕ ﺑﻌﺾ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﻟﻴﺘﻢ ﺇﻧﺠﺎﺯﻫﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﺜﺎﻝ ‪:‬‬
‫ﻟﺒﻨﺎء ﻣﺪﺭﺳﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﺪﺍﺭﺱ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻡ ﻋﻤﻠﻬﺎ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪ .A‬ﻋﻤﻞ ﻣﺨﻄﻂ ﻣﻌﻤﺎﺭﻱ‬
‫‪ .B‬ﺣﻔﺮ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺍﻋﺪ‬
‫‪ .C‬ﺻﺐ ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺪﺓ‬
‫‪ .D‬ﺑﻨﺎء ﺍﻟﻌﻈﻢ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻬﻴﻜﻞ‬
‫‪ .E‬ﺻﺐ ﺍﻷﺩﻭﺍﺭ‬
‫‪ .F‬ﺃﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎء‬
‫‪ .G‬ﺃﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺴﺒﺎﻛﺔ‬
‫‪ .H‬ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ ﻣﻦ ﻧﻮﺍﻓﺬ ﻭ ﺃﺑﻮﺍﺏ ﻭﺩﻫﺎﻥ‬
‫ﻛﻞ ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﻳﺘﻄﻠﺐ ﻭﻗﺘﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻦ ﻭﻳﺘﻄﻠﺐ ﻣﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﻣﻦ ﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﻭﻣﻮﺍﺩ ﺃﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻭ‬
‫ﺃﻣﻮﺍﻝ‪ .‬ﺭﻣﺰﻧﺎ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻧﺸﺎﻁ ﺑﺤﺮﻑ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺤﺮﻭﻑ ﻟﻠﺘﺴﻬﻴﻞ‪ ،‬ﻓﻨﻘﻮﻝ ﻧﺸﺎﻁ ‪ A‬ﻭ ﻧﺸﺎﻁ ‪.B‬‬
‫ﻓﻤﺜﻼ ﻋﻤﻞ ﻣﺨﻄﻂ ﻣﻌﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ‪ ، A‬ﻭﺣﻔﺮ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺍﻋﺪ ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ‪ B‬ﻭﻫﻜﺬﺍ‪...‬‬
‫ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﻣﻤﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺒﺪﺃ ﻓﻲ ﻭﻗﺖ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻌﺾ ﻗﺪ ﺗﺒﺪﺃ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺍﻧﺘﻬﺎء ﺃﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺳﺎﺑﻘﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻓﻤﺜﻼ ﻻ ﻧﺴﺘﻄﻴﻊ ﺑﻨﺎء ﺍﻟﻌﻈﻢ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺍﻻﻧﺘﻬﺎء ﻣﻦ ﺻﺐ ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺪﺓ ‪ .‬ﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﻓﺈﻧﻪ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻧﺸﺎﻁ ﺃﻭ‬
‫ﻣﻬﻤﺔ ﻳﺠﺐ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺤﺪﺩ ﺑﺎﻟﻀﺒﻂ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ )‪. (Predecessor activities‬‬
‫ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ ‪ :‬ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ) ‪ (Predecessor activities‬ﻭ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻳﺠﺐ‬
‫ﺇﺗﻤﺎﻣﻬﺎ ﺃﻭﻻ ﻟﻴﺒﺪﺃ ﻧﺸﺎﻁ ﻣﻌﻴﻦ‪.‬‬
‫ﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﻟﻠﻨﺸﺎﻁ ‪ " D‬ﺑﻨﺎء ﺍﻟﻌﻈﻢ ﻭﺍﻟﻬﻴﻜﻞ " ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ‪ . C‬ﻭﻧﺤﻦ‬
‫ﻫﻨﺎ ﻻ ﻧﻨﻈﺮ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺟﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻳﺠﺐ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺴﺒﻖ ‪ ،‬ﺇﻧﻤﺎ ﻧﻨﻈﺮ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺃﻭ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ‪ .‬ﻓﻤﺜﻼ ﺍﻛﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ‪ C‬ﻣﻌﻨﺎﻩ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ‪ A‬ﻭ ‪B‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﻟﻠﻨﺸﺎﻁ ‪ D‬ﻩ ﻱ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ‪ A‬ﻭ‬ ‫ﺓ‬ ‫ﺟﻤﻴﻌﻬﺎ ﻗﺪ ﺍﻛﺘﻤﻞ‪ .‬ﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﻻ ﻧﻘﻮﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻂ ﺓ‬

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‫ﻋﻠﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺳﺏ‬

‫‪ B‬ﻭ ‪ . C‬ﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ‪ H‬ﻳﺘﻄﻠﺐ ﺇﻧﻬﺎء ﻛﻼ ﻣﻦ ‪ G‬ﻭ ‪ F‬ﻻﻥ ‪ G‬ﻻ ﻳﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫‪ F‬ﻭﻫﻜﺬﺍ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺇﺫﺍ ﺃﺭﺩﻧﺎ ﻣﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﻭﻗﺖ ﺍﻛﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻓﺈﻧﻪ ﻳﺠﺐ ﻣﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺪﺓ " ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ" ﻹﻧﺠﺎﺯ‬
‫ﻛﻞ ﻧﺸﺎﻁ‪.‬‬
‫ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﻫﻮ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻣﺔ ﻹﻧﺠﺎﺯ ﺃﻱ ﻧﺸﺎﻁ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﺗﻘﺎﺱ ﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺑﺎﻟﺴﺎﻋﺎﺕ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻷﻳﺎﻡ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺸﻬﻮﺭ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻮﺍﺕ ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﺑﺄﻱ ﻭﺳﻴﻠﺔ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ‬
‫ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺒﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻟﻜﻦ ﻳﺠﺐ ﺗﻮﺣﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﻮﺣﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﻟﻠﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻓﻲ ﺟﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﺑﻤﻌﺮﻓﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻧﺸﺎﻁ ﻓﺈﻧﻪ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﻣﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﺍﻹﺟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻹﻧﻬﺎء ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ‪. PERT‬‬
‫ﻭ ﺑﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﻛﻞ ﻧﺸﺎﻁ ﻻ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺒﺪﺃ ﺣﺘﻰ ﻳﻨﺘﻬﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﻟﻪ ﻓﺈﻧﻪ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ‬
‫ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﺍﻟﺤﺪﺙ ”‪ “ event‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻧﻪ ‪:‬‬
‫ﻫﻮ ﻧﻘﻄﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻟﺤﻈﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻳﺘﻢ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻛﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺜﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ‪ H‬ﻻ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺒﺪﺃ ﺃﻻ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺍﻧﺘﻬﺎء ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ‪ ، F ، E‬ﻭ ‪. G‬‬
‫ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﻳﻘﻊ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺤﺪﺙ ﻓﺈﻧﻪ ﻳﺒﺪﺃ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ‪ .H‬ﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﻣﻤﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻧﺮﻣﺰ ﻟﻸﺣﺪﺍﺙ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺑﺎﻷﺭﻗﺎﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﺜﻼ ﺣﺪﺙ ‪ ، 1‬ﺣﺪﺙ ‪ ، 2‬ﻭﻫﻜﺬﺍ‪ .....‬ﻓﺤﺪﺙ ‪ 1‬ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺑﺪﺍﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﺤﺪﺙ ﺍﻷﺧﻴﺮ ﻫﻮ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ) ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ﺟﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻷﺣﺪﺍﺙ ﻗﺪ ﺍﻧﺘﻬﺖ(‪.‬‬

‫ﺷﺒﻜﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺧﺮﻳﻄﺔ ‪PERT‬‬

‫ﺗﻌﺮﻑ ﺷﺒﻜﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺧﺮﻳﻄﺔ ‪ PERT‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﻧﻬﺎ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﻋﻦ ﺭﺳﻢ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﻲ ﺃﻭ ﻧﻤﻮﺫﺝ ﺷﻜﻠﻲ‬
‫ﻳﻮﺿﺢ ﺗﻌﺎﻗﺐ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺤﻮﺍﺩﺙ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻣﺔ ﻹﻧﻬﺎء ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﺎ‪ .‬ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺸﺒﻜﺔ ﺗﺴﺎﻋﺪ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺪﻳﺮ ﻭﻣﺘﺨﺬ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺭﺅﻳﺔ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺤﻮﺍﺩﺙ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻣﺔ ﻹﻧﻬﺎء‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺑﺴﻬﻮﻟﺔ ‪.‬‬

‫"‪.‬‬ ‫" ﻭ ﺍﻷﺣﺪﺍﺙ ﺑﺪﻭﺍﺋﺮ "‬ ‫ﻗﺎﻋﺪﺓ‪ :‬ﻳﺠﺐ ﺗﻤﺜﻴﻞ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺑﺎﺳﻬﻢ "‬

‫ﻓﻤﺜﻼ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻳﻮﺿﺢ ﺑﺪﺍﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ‪:A‬‬

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 ‫ﻋﻠﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺳﺏ‬

‫ﻭﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺗﻮﺿﻴﺢ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻕ ﺑﻴﻦ ﺍﻟﺤﺪﺙ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺤﺪﺙ ‪2‬‬
‫ﺑﺪﺍﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ‬

‫ﺍﻛﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ‬

‫ﻭﺑﺎﻟﻤﺜﻞ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ‪ ، F ، E‬ﻭ ‪ G‬ﻻ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺒﺪﺃ ﺣﺘﻰ ﻳﻨﺘﻬﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ‪. D‬‬
‫ﻫﺬﺍ ﻣﻤﻜﻦ ﺗﻤﺜﻴﻠﻪ ﺑﺎﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬

‫ﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ‪ H‬ﻻ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺒﺪﺃ ﺣﺘﻰ ﺗﻨﺘﻬﻲ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ‪ ، F ، E‬ﻭ ‪ .G‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ‬
‫ﺗﻤﺜﻴﻠﻪ ﺑﺎﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬

‫ﻭﻋﻤﻮﻣﺎ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺣﺪﺙ ﻓﻲ ﺑﺪﺍﻳﺔ ﻭﻧﻬﺎﻳﺔ ﻛﻞ ﻧﺸﺎﻁ‪.‬‬

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‫ﻋﻠﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺳﺏ‬

‫ﻭ ﺍﻵﻥ ﺩﻋﻨﺎ ﻧﺮﺳﻢ ﺷﺒﻜﺔ ‪ PERT‬ﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻟﻤﺪﺭﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﻭﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﻫﻲ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺠﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬

‫ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻮﺻﻒ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ‬

‫ﻻ ﻳﻮﺟﺪ‬ ‫ﻋﻤﻞ ﻣﺨﻄﻂ ﻣﻌﻤﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫‪A‬‬‫‪0B‬‬

‫‪A‬‬‫‪2B‬‬ ‫ﺣﻔﺮ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺍﻋﺪ‬ ‫‪B‬‬ ‫‪1B‬‬

‫‪B‬‬ ‫‪4B‬‬ ‫ﺻﺐ ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺪﺓ‬ ‫‪C‬‬ ‫‪3B‬‬

‫‪C‬‬ ‫‪6B‬‬ ‫ﺑﻨﺎء ﺍﻟﻌﻈﻢ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻬﻴﻜﻞ‬ ‫‪D‬‬‫‪5B‬‬

‫‪D‬‬‫‪8B‬‬ ‫ﺻﺐ ﺍﻷﺩﻭﺍﺭ‬ ‫‪E‬‬ ‫‪7B‬‬

‫‪D‬‬‫‪10B‬‬ ‫ﺃﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎء‬ ‫‪F‬‬ ‫‪9B‬‬

‫‪D‬‬‫‪12B‬‬ ‫ﺃﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺴﺒﺎﻛﺔ‬ ‫‪G‬‬‫‪1B‬‬

‫ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ ﻣﻦ ﻧﻮﺍﻓﺬ ﻭ ‪G, E, F‬‬

‫‪14B‬‬ ‫‪H‬‬‫‪13B‬‬

‫ﺃﺑﻮﺍﺏ ﻭﺩﻫﺎﻥ‬

‫ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺭﺳﻢ ﺷﺒﻜﺔ ‪ PERT‬ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻮﺿﺢ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬

‫ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﺒﻜﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﻭﺿﻌﻨﺎ ‪ 7‬ﺃﺣﺪﺍﺙ ﺭﺋﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ‪ ،‬ﺣﺪﺙ ‪ 1‬ﻫﻮ ﺑﺪﺍﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ‪،‬‬
‫ﺑﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﺣﺪﺙ ‪ 7‬ﻫﻮ ﺍﻛﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬
‫ﺃﻻﻥ ﺩﻋﻨﺎ ﻧﻨﺘﻘﻞ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻣﺜﺎﻝ ﺃﺻﻌﺐ ﻗﻠﻴﻼ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺠﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻳﻮﺿﺢ ﻛﻞ ﻧﺸﺎﻁ ﻭﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺸﺮﻛﺔ‬
‫ﺳﺪﻳﺮ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮﺏ ﺭﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﻭ ﺗﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻷﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﻜﺮﺓ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺘﺄﺧﺮﺓ ﻟﻸﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﻭ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺣﺪﺍﺙ ﻭ ﺍﻷﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﻀﺔ ﻭﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺤﺮﺝ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﻟﻼﻧﺘﻬﺎء‪:‬‬

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 ‫ﻋﻠﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺳﺏ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ‪Expected duration‬‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ‬

‫)‪(te‬‬
‫‪12‬‬ ‫ﻻ ﻳﻮﺟﺪ‬ ‫‪A‬‬
‫‪15B‬‬

‫‪20‬‬ ‫ﻻ ﻳﻮﺟﺪ‬ ‫‪B‬‬ ‫‪16B‬‬

‫‪14‬‬ ‫ﻻ ﻳﻮﺟﺪ‬ ‫‪C‬‬ ‫‪17B‬‬

‫‪16‬‬ ‫‪C‬‬ ‫‪19B‬‬ ‫‪D‬‬

‫‪18B‬‬

‫‪28‬‬ ‫‪A‬‬ ‫‪21B‬‬ ‫‪E‬‬ ‫‪20B‬‬

‫‪15‬‬ ‫‪D, B‬‬

‫‪23B‬‬ ‫‪F‬‬ ‫‪2B‬‬

‫‪36‬‬ ‫‪D, B‬‬

‫‪25B‬‬ ‫‪G‬‬
‫‪24B‬‬

‫‪22‬‬ ‫‪C‬‬ ‫‪27B‬‬ ‫‪H‬‬

‫‪26B‬‬

‫‪18‬‬ ‫‪E, F‬‬ ‫‪29B‬‬ ‫‪I‬‬ ‫‪28B‬‬

‫‪24‬‬ ‫‪H‬‬ ‫‪J‬‬ ‫‪30B‬‬

‫ﻭﺑﺬﻟﻚ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺷﻜﻞ ﺷﺒﻜﺔ ‪PERT‬‬

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‫ﻋﻠﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺳﺏ‬

‫ﺣﻴﺚ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ‪ G‬ﻭ ‪ I‬ﻭ ‪ J‬ﻫﻢ ﻱ ﺁﺧﺮ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﻓﺈﻧﻬﺎ ﻳﺠﺐ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺘﻢ ﻓﺈﻧﻬﻢ ﻳﺠﺐ ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﺗﻨﺘﻬﻲ ﺑﺎﻟﺤﺪﺙ ‪ ) 7‬ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﻟﻴﺴﺖ ﺳﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﻷﻱ ﻧﺸﺎﻁ( ‪:‬‬
‫ﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﻻﻥ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻂﺓ ‪ G ،F‬ﺕﺗﺤﺪ ﻓﻲ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ‪، B‬ﻭ ‪ D‬ﻛﺄﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺳﺎﺑﻘﺔ‬
‫ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ‪،B‬ﻭ ‪ D‬ﻳﺠﺐ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻨﺘﻬﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺤﺪﺙ ‪ 4‬ﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ‪ G ،F‬ﺗﺒﺪﺃ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺣﻴﺚ ﺍﻧﺘﻬﻰ ﺍﻟﺤﺪﺙ ‪. 4‬‬

‫ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻼﺣﻆ ﺃﻧﻨﺎ ﻭﺿﻌﻨﺎ ﺍﻟﻤﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﻹﻧﻬﺎء ﻛﻞ ﻧﺸﺎﻁ ﺑﺠﻮﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺹ ﺑﻪ ﻭﺫﻟﻚ‬
‫ﻟﻠﺘﺴﻬﻴﻞ‪.‬‬

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 ‫ﻋﻠﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺳﺏ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻕ )‪ (Paths‬ﻓﻲ ﺷﺒﻜﺔ ‪PERT‬‬

‫ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﺳﺌﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻬﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻳﺠﺐ ﺃﻥ ﻧﺠﻴﺐ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﻫﻮ ﻣﺘﻰ ﻧﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﺍﻻﻧﺘﻬﺎء ﺑﺎﻟﻜﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﺇﺣﺪﻯ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺴﺎﻋﺪﻧﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻫﻮ ﻣﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﺃﺧﺬﻫﺎ‬
‫ﻹﻧﻬﺎء ﺟﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺭﺍﺕ‪.‬‬
‫ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺭ )‪:(Path‬‬
‫ﻫﻮ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﻋﻦ ﻧﺸﺎﻁﺎﺕ ﻣﺘﺘﺎﺑﻌﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺮﺑﻂ ﺑﻴﻦ ﺣﺪﺙ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﺍﻳﺔ ) ﺍﻟﺤﺪﺙ ‪ (1‬ﻭﺣﺘﻰ ﺣﺪﺙ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﻳﺔ ) ﻓﻲ ﻣﺜﺎﻟﻨﺎ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻟﺤﺪﺙ ‪ ، 7‬ﻫﻮ ﺣﺪﺙ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﻳﺔ(‪ .‬ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻳﻌﻄﻲ ﻣﺜﺎﻻ ﻷﺣﺪ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺭﺍﺕ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺠﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻳﻮﺿﺢ ﺟﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻜﻨﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻣﺴﺎﺭ‪:‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺪﺓ ”‪“ Duration‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺭ ”‪“Path‬‬ ‫ﺭﻗﻢ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺭ ‪“Path‬‬
‫"‪Number‬‬
‫‪58=18+28+12‬‬ ‫‪A-E-I‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪53=18+15+20‬‬ ‫‪B-F-I‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫‪56=36+20‬‬ ‫‪B-G‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫‪63=18+15+16+14‬‬ ‫‪C-D-F-I‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬
‫‪66=36+16+14‬‬ ‫‪C-D-G‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬
‫‪60=24+22+14‬‬ ‫‪C-H-J‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬

‫ﻣﺜﻼ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ‪ ،‬ﻳﺘﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ‪ C-D-G‬ﻭ ﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﺍﻷﺣﺪﺍﺙ ‪ 7 ،4 ، 3 ، 1‬ﻭ‬

‫ﻫﻮ ﻳﺴﺘﻐﺮﻕ ﺣﻮﺍﻟﻲ ‪ 66‬ﻳﻮﻣﺎ ‪ .‬ﻭﻟﻜﻦ ﺍﻛﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ‪ C-D-G‬ﻻ ﻳﻌﻨﻰ ﺍﻛﺘﻤﺎﻝ‬

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‫ﻋﻠﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺳﺏ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﻷﻧﻪ ﻳﺠﺐ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻨﺘﻬﻲ ﺟﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ‪ .‬ﻭﻟﻜﻦ ﺇﺫﺍ ﺃﺧﺬﻧﺎ ﺍﻟﻤﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ‬
‫ﻹﻛﻤﺎﻝ ﺟﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ) ﻛﻞ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺣﺪﺓ( ﻭﻛﻤﺎ ﻓﻌﻠﻨﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺠﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﻓﺈﻥ‬
‫ﺃﻁﻮﻝ ﻣﺴﺎﺭ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﻤﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﻟﻺﻧﺘﻬﺎء‪ .‬ﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺭ ﺭﻗﻢ ‪5‬‬
‫ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺘﻄﻠﺐ ﻭﻗﺘﺎ ﺃﻁﻮﻝ " ‪ 66‬ﻳﻮﻣﺎ " ﻭﻣﻨﻪ ﻧﻘﻮﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻣﺔ ﻹﻛﻤﺎﻝ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻫﻲ ‪ 66‬ﻳﻮﻣﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺑﺪﺍﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺤﻴﺎﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺼﻌﺐ ﺇﻳﺠﺎﺩ ﺟﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﺣﺴﺎﺑﻬﺎ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﺛﻢ ﻣﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻡ ﻹﻛﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ .‬ﻭﻟﻜﻦ ﺃﺳﻠﻮﺏ ‪ PERT‬ﻫﻮ ﺃﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﺳﻬﻮﻟﺔ ﻭ ﺃﻓﻀﻞ‬
‫ﻁﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﻋﻠﻤﻴﺔ ﻟﺤﻞ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺎﻛﻞ ﺍﻟﻜﺒﻴﺮﺓ‪.‬‬

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 ‫ﻋﻠﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺳﺏ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﻟﻼﻧﺘﻬﺎء "‪“ Expected time of completion‬‬

‫ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﺳﺌﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻬﻤﺔ ﻫﻮ ﻣﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﻹﻧﻬﺎء ﻛﻞ ﻧﺸﺎﻁ ﻭﻛﻞ ﺣﺪﺙ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺑﻨﺎء‬
‫ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﻳﺄﺗﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ ‪ TE :‬ﺗﺮﻣﺰ ﻷﺑﻜﺮ ﻟﺤﻈﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻦ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻳﻜﺘﻤﻞ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﻧﺸﺎﻁ ﻣﻌﻴﻦ‪ .‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﻤﺜﻞ‬
‫ﻓﺈﻥ ‪ TE‬ﺗﺮﻣﺰ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﺑﻜﺮ ﻟﺤﻈﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻦ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻳﻘﻊ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺣﺪﺙ ﻣﻌﻴﻦ ) ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ﺟﻤﻴﻊ‬
‫‪“ Earliest‬‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻨﺘﻬﻲ ﺑﻬﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺤﺪﺙ ﻗﺪ ﺍﻛﺘﻤﻠﺖ( ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﻜﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻊ‬
‫"‪ Expected time‬ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﻣﺖ ﻷﻧﻨﺎ ﻧﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﺇﻧﻬﺎء ﺗﻜﺘﻤﻞ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺫﻟﻚ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺠﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻳﻮﺿﺢ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﻜﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻊ ‪ TE‬ﻟﻼﻧﺘﻬﺎء ﻣﻦ ﻛﻞ ﻧﺸﺎﻁ ‪:‬‬
‫‪Earliest Expected‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ‪Earliest Expected‬‬
‫‪Completion time ( TE‬‬ ‫( ‪Completion time‬‬
‫)‬ ‫) ‪TE‬‬
‫‪45‬‬ ‫‪F‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪A‬‬
‫‪66‬‬ ‫‪G‬‬ ‫‪20‬‬ ‫‪B‬‬
‫‪36‬‬ ‫‪H‬‬ ‫‪14‬‬ ‫‪C‬‬
‫‪63‬‬ ‫‪I‬‬ ‫‪30‬‬ ‫‪D‬‬
‫‪60‬‬ ‫‪J‬‬ ‫‪40‬‬ ‫‪E‬‬

‫ﻭﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﻜﺮ ﻟﻮﻗﻮﻉ ﺍﻷﺣﺪﺍﺙ ﻫﻮ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻫﻮ ﻣﻮﺿﺢ ﻓﻲ ﺷﺒﻜﺔ ‪ PERT‬ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪:‬‬

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‫ﻋﻠﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺳﺏ‬

‫ﻟﺤﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﻜﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﻟﻸﺣﺪﺍﺙ ﻳﺠﺐ ﻭﺿﻊ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺮ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﺍﻳﺔ ) ‪ ، ( TE‬ﻟﺬﻟﻚ‬
‫ﻓﺈﻥ ﻛﻞ ﺍﻷﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﻜﺮﺓ ﻟﻮﻗﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﺤﺪﺙ ﺗﻔﺴﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻧﻬﺎ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻷﻳﺎﻡ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬
‫ﻣﻀﺖ ﻣﻨﺬ ﺑﺪﺍﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ .‬ﻓﻤﺜﻼ ﺍﻟﺤﺪﺙ ‪ ( 36 = TE ) 6‬ﺃﻱ ﺍﻧﻪ ﺃﺑﻜﺮ ﻭﻗﺖ ﻣﺘﻮﻗﻊ‬
‫ﻟﻮﻗﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﺤﺪﺙ ‪ 6‬ﻫﻮ ‪ 36‬ﻳﻮﻣﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺑﺪﺍﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬
‫ﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﻜﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﻵﻱ ﻧﺸﺎﻁ ﻫﻮ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﻟﻠﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﻧﻔﺴﻪ‪+‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﻜﺮ ﻟﻮﻗﻮﻉ ﺣﺪﺙ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﺍﻳﺔ ‪ .‬ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ‪:‬‬
‫‪ TE‬ﻟﻠﻨﺸﺎﻁ ‪12 = 12 +0 = A‬‬
‫‪ TE‬ﻟﻠﻨﺸﺎﻁ ‪20 = 20 +0 = B‬‬
‫‪ TE‬ﻟﻠﻨﺸﺎﻁ ‪45 = 15 +30 = F‬‬
‫ﻭﻫﻜﺬﺍ‬

‫ﻛﺬﻟﻚ ‪ TE‬ﻟﻠﺤﺪﺙ ‪ 4‬ﻳﻘﻊ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﺕﻛﺘﻤﻞ ﺟﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﻭﻫﻲ ‪ B‬ﻭ ﻛﺬﻟﻚ ‪ .D‬ﻓﻤﺜﻼ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ‪ B‬ﻳﻨﺘﻬﻲ ﺑﻌﺪ ‪ 20‬ﻳﻮﻣﺎ ﻭ ﻟﻜﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ‪ D‬ﻳﻨﺘﻬﻲ ﺑﻌﺪ ‪ 30‬ﻳﻮﻣﺎ ‪ ،‬ﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺒﻜﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﻟﻮﻗﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﺤﺪﺙ ‪ 4‬ﻫﻮ ‪ 30‬ﻳﻮﻣﺎ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﻜﺬﺍ ﻟﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻷﺣﺪﺍﺙ‪.‬‬
‫ﻻﺣﻆ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺤﺪﺙ ‪ 7‬ﻫﻮ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻛﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ‪ ، G ، I‬ﻭ ‪. J‬ﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﻓﺎﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ‬
‫ﻳﺎﺧﺬ ﻭﻗﺖ ﺃﻁﻮﻝ ﻟﻼﻧﺘﻬﺎء ﻣﻨﻪ ﻫﻮ ﺃﺑﻜﺮ ﻭﻗﺖ ﻳﺘﻢ ﻓﻴﻪ ﺍﻟﺤﺪﺙ ‪ ، 7‬ﻭﻫﻮ ‪ .66‬ﻭﻫﻮ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ‬
‫ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﻁﻮﻝ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺤﺮﺝ‪.‬‬

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 ‫ﻋﻠﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺳﺏ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺄﺧﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﻤﻮﺡ ﺑﻪ )‪(Latest allowable time‬‬

‫ﺣﻴﺚ ﺃﻥ ‪ TE‬ﻫﻲ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﻋﻦ ﻣﺪﺓ ﻣﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﻜﺮ ﻹﻧﻬﺎء ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺒﻜﺮ ﻟﻮﻗﻮﻉ ﺃﻳﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﺣﺪﺍﺙ ﺳﻴﻜﻮﻥ ﺗﻮﻗﻊ ﻓﻘﻂ ‪ .‬ﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﻗﺪ ﺗﺄﺧﺬ‬
‫ﻭﻗﺖ ﺃﻁﻮﻝ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﻭ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﺳﻴﺆﺛﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺑﺄﻛﻤﻠﻪ ‪ .‬ﻭﻣﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺄﺧﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﻤﻮﺡ ﺑﻪ ﻹﻧﺠﺎﺯ ﺃﻱ ﻧﺸﺎﻁ ﺃﻭ ﻟﻮﻗﻮﻉ ﺃﻱ ﺣﺪﺙ ﻣﻬﻢ ﺟﺪﺍ‪ .‬ﻻﻥ ﻣﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺄﺧﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﻤﻮﺡ ﺑﻪ ﺳﺘﻮﺿﺢ ﻟﻨﺎ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺧﻴﺮ ﻓﻲ ﻧﺸﺎﻁ ﺃﻭ ﺣﺪﺙ ﻣﻌﻴﻦ ﺳﻴﺆﺛﺮ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﺄﺧﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺑﺄﻛﻤﻠﻪ ﺃﻡ ﻻ‪ .‬ﺳﻨﺮﻣﺰ ﻟﻠﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺄﺧﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﻤﻮﺡ ﺑﻪ ﺑﺎﻟﺮﻣﺰ )‪. (TL‬‬
‫ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ‪ TL :‬ﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﻣﻌﻴﻦ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻫﻮ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﻋﻦ ﺁﺧﺮ ﻟﺤﻈﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻦ ﻳﺴﻤﺢ‬
‫ﺑﻪ ﻹﻧﺠﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺑﺤﻴﺚ ﻻ ﻳﺆﺛﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﺄﺧﺮ ﺍﻛﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺻﻠﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻛﺬﻟﻚ ‪ TL‬ﻟﺤﺪﺙ ﻣﻌﻴﻦ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﺣﺪﺍﺙ ‪ ،‬ﻫﻮ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﻋﻦ ﺁﺧﺮ ﻟﺤﻈﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻦ ﻳﺴﻤﺢ ﺑﻪ‬
‫ﻟﻮﻗﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﺤﺪﺙ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺑﺤﻴﺚ ﻻ ﻳﺆﺛﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﺄﺧﺮ ﺍﻛﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺻﻠﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﺍﻟﺠﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻳﻮﺿﺢ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺄﺧﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﻤﻮﺡ ﺑﻪ ﻟﻸﻧﺸﻄﺔ‪:‬‬
‫) ‪Latest Allowable ( TL‬‬ ‫‪Earliest Expected Completion‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺄﺧﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﻤﻮﺡ ﺑﻪ‬ ‫) ‪time ( TE‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﻜﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻊ‬
‫‪20‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪A‬‬
‫‪30‬‬ ‫‪20‬‬ ‫‪B‬‬
‫‪14‬‬ ‫‪14‬‬ ‫‪C‬‬
‫‪30‬‬ ‫‪30‬‬ ‫‪D‬‬
‫‪48‬‬ ‫‪40‬‬ ‫‪E‬‬
‫‪48‬‬ ‫‪45‬‬ ‫‪F‬‬
‫‪66‬‬ ‫‪66‬‬ ‫‪G‬‬
‫‪42‬‬ ‫‪36‬‬ ‫‪H‬‬
‫‪66‬‬ ‫‪63‬‬ ‫‪I‬‬
‫‪66‬‬ ‫‪60‬‬ ‫‪J‬‬

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‫ﻋﻠﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺳﺏ‬

‫ﻟﺤﺴﺎﺏ ﻗﻴﻢ ) ‪ ( TL‬ﻓﺄﻧﻨﺎ ﻧﺒﺪﺃ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺤﺪﺙ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺋﻲ ) ﺣﺪﺙ ‪ ، 7‬ﺃﻱ ‪ 66‬ﻳﻮﻣﺎ( ﻭﻧﺮﺟﻊ‬
‫ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻷﻣﺎﻡ ﺑﺎﺗﺠﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﺍﻳﺔ ‪ .‬ﻭ ‪ TE‬ﻟﻠﺤﺪﺙ ﺍﻷﺧﻴﺮ ) ﺣﺪﺙ ‪ 7‬ﻓﻲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻤﺜﺎﻝ( ﻫﻮ ﺩﺍﺋﻤﺎ‬
‫ﻳﺴﺎﻭﻱ ) ‪ ( TL‬ﻟﻨﻔﺲ ﺍﻟﺤﺪﺙ ‪ .‬ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ‪ 66 = TL = TE‬ﻳﻮﻣﺎ‪ .‬ﻭﻧﺮﺟﻊ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻷﻣﺎﻡ‬
‫ﻟﺤﺴﺎﺏ ﻗﻴﻢ ‪ TL‬ﺍﻟﺒﺎﻗﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻗﺎﻋﺪﺓ ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺄﺧﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﻤﻮﺡ ﺑﻪ )‪ ( TL‬ﻷﻱ ﻧﺸﺎﻁ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﻫﻲ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﻋﻦ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺄﺧﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﻤﻮﺡ ﺑﻪ )‪ ( TL‬ﻟﻠﺤﺪﺙ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻨﺘﻬﻲ ﻓﻴﻪ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ‪.‬‬
‫ﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﻓﺈﻧﻪ ﺑﻤﺠﺮﺩ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺄﺧﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﻤﻮﺡ ﺑﻪ )‪ ( TL‬ﻷﻱ ﺣﺪﺙ ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻧﻪ ﻫﻮ ﻧﻔﺴﻪ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺄﺧﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﻤﻮﺡ ﺑﻪ )‪ ( TL‬ﻟﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻨﺘﻬﻲ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺍﻟﺤﺪﺙ‪.‬‬
‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﺍﻓﺘﺮﺿﻨﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ‪ J‬ﻣﺜﻼ ﻟﻢ ﻳﺒﺪﺃ ﺣﺘﻰ ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻡ ﺍﻝ ‪ 43‬ﻓﻬﻞ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺳﻴﺆﺛﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ؟‬
‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﻧﻈﺮﻧﺎ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺄﺧﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﻤﻮﺡ ﺑﻪ )‪ ( TL‬ﻟﻠﺤﺪﺙ ‪ 7‬ﻭ ﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ‪ J‬ﻫﻮ ‪66‬‬
‫‪ J‬ﻫﻲ ‪ 24‬ﻳﻮﻣﺎ‪ .‬ﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ‪J‬‬ ‫ﻳﻮﻣﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻣﺔ ﻹﻧﺠﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ‬
‫ﻳﺠﺐ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺒﺪﺃ ﻓﻲ ﻣﻮﻋﺪ ﺃﻗﺼﺎﻩ ﻫﻮ ‪) 42 = 24– 66‬ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺄﺧﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﻤﻮﺡ‬
‫ﺑﻪ )‪ ( TL‬ﻟﻠﺤﺪﺙ ‪ 6‬ﻫﻮ ‪ 42‬ﻳﻮﻣﺎ( ﻭ ﺇﻻ ﺍﺛﺮ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﻛﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺪﺩ‪ .‬ﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﺇﺫﺍ ﺑﺪ ﺃ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ‪ J‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻡ ﺍﻝـ ‪ 43‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻳﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻨﺘﻬﻲ ﻟﻴﺲ ﻗﺒﻞ‬
‫‪ 67= 24 +43‬ﻳﻮﻣﺎ ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﺑﺘﺄﺧﺮ ﻳﻮﻣﺎ ﻭﺍﺣﺪﺍ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﻮﻋﺪ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﻟﻮﻗﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﺤﺪﺙ ‪. 7‬‬
‫ﺷﺒﻜﺔ ‪ PERT‬ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺗﻮﺿﺢ ﺃﻳﻀﺎ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺄﺧﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﻤﻮﺡ ﺑﻪ )‪ ( TL‬ﻟﻸﺣﺪﺍﺙ‬

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 ‫ﻋﻠﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺳﺏ‬

‫ﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﻭﺑﻨﻔﺲ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺄﺧﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﻤﻮﺡ ﺑﻪ ) ‪ ( TL‬ﻟﻠﺤﺪﺙ ‪. 5‬‬
‫ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺄﺧﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﻤﻮﺡ ﺑﻪ ) ‪ ( TL‬ﻟﻠﺤﺪﺙ ‪ 5‬ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﻋﻦ ‪ ) 66-18=48‬ﺍﻟﻤﺪﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻣﺔ ﻹﻧﺠﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ‪ I‬ﺗﺴﺎﻭﻱ ‪ 48‬ﻳﻮﻣﺎ(‪.‬‬
‫ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺄﺧﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﻤﻮﺡ ﺑﻪ ) ‪ ( TL‬ﻟﻠﺤﺪﺙ ‪ 4‬ﻗﺪ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺃﺻﻌﺐ ﻗﻠﻴﻼ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻟﻚ‬
‫ﻻﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ‪ F‬ﻭ ﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ‪ G‬ﺗﺒﺪﺃ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺤﺪﺙ ‪ . 4‬ﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﺤﺪﺙ ‪ 4‬ﻳﺠﺐ ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻧﺘﻬﺎء ﻗﺒﻞ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺄﺧﺮ‬ ‫ﻳﺒﺪﺃ ﻣﺒﻜﺮﺍ ﺑﻤﺎ ﻓﻴﻪ ﺍﻟﻜﻔﺎﻳﺔ ﻟﻴﺴﻤﺢ ﻟﻜﻼ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁﻴﻦ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﻤﻮﺡ ﺑﻪ ﻟﻜﻼ ﻣﻨﻬﻢ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺄﺧﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﻤﻮﺡ ﺑﻪ ) ‪ ( TL‬ﻟﻠﻨﺸﺎﻁ ‪ ، 48 =F‬ﻭ ﺍﻟﻤﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺄﺧﺬﻫﺎ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﻫﺬﺍ ﻫﻲ ‪ 15‬ﻳﻮﻣﺎ‪ ،‬ﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ‪ F‬ﻳﺠﺐ ﺃﻥ ﻻ ﻳﺘﺄﺧﺮ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻡ ‪ 33‬ﻳﻮﻣﺎ‬
‫ﻭﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻕ ﺑﻴﻦ ‪ 48‬ﻭ ﺑﻴﻦ ‪. 15‬‬
‫ﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺄﺧﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﻤﻮﺡ ﺑﻪ ) ‪ ( TL‬ﻟﻠﻨﺸﺎﻁ ‪ ، 66 =G‬ﻭ ﺍﻟﻤﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﻳﺄﺧﺬﻫﺎ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﻫﺬﻩ ﻫﻲ ‪ 36‬ﻳﻮﻣﺎ‪ ،‬ﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ‪ G‬ﻳﺠﺐ ﺃﻥ ﻻ ﻳﺘﺄﺧﺮ ﻋﻦ ‪ 30‬ﻳﻮﻣﺎ‬
‫)‪.(66-36‬‬
‫ﻭ ﻟﺤﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺄﺧﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﻤﻮﺡ ﺑﻪ ) ‪ ( TL‬ﻟﻠﺤﺪﺙ ‪ 4‬ﻓﺄﻧﻨﺎ ﻧﺄﺧﺬ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻷﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺑﻴﻦ ﺍﻷﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻳﺠﺐ ﺃﻥ ﻻ ﺗﺘﺄﺧﺮ ﻋﻨﻬﺎ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺒﺪﺃ ﻣﻦ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺍﻟﺤﺪﺙ ) ﺃﻱ ﺍﻷﻗﻞ‬
‫ﻣﻦ ﺑﻴﻦ ‪ 30 ، 33‬ﻳﻮﻣﺎ( ‪ .‬ﺃﻭ ﺑﺼﻴﻐﺔ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ )‪ ، min ( 30,33‬ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺄﺧﺮ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﻤﻮﺡ ﺑﻪ )‪ ( TL‬ﻟﻠﺤﺪﺙ ‪ 4‬ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ‪ 30‬ﻳﻮﻣﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻓﺘﺮﺽ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺤﺪﺙ ‪ 4‬ﻭﻗﻊ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻡ ﺍﻝ ‪ ، 31‬ﻣﺎﺫﺍ ﺳﻴﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ‪ F‬ﻭﻛﺬﻟﻚ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ‪ G‬؟‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ‪ F‬ﻟﻦ ﻳﺘﺄﺛﺮ ﺑﻬﺬﺍ ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﻻﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ‪ F‬ﻳﺠﺐ ﺃﻥ ﻻ ﻳﺘﺄﺧﺮ ﻋﻦ ‪ 33‬ﻳﻮﻣﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﺃﻣﺎ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ‪ G‬ﻓﺴﻮﻑ ﻳﺘﺄﺛﺮ ﺑﻬﺬﺍ ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﻻﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ‪ G‬ﻳﺠﺐ ﺃﻥ ﻻ ﻳﺘﺄﺧﺮ ﻋﻦ ‪30‬‬
‫ﻳﻮﻣﺎ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﺳﻴﺘﺄﺧﺮ ﺑﻴﻮﻡ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﻣﻤﺎ ﻳﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺑﺄﻛﻤﻠﻪ ﺑﻴﻮﻡ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻧﻔﺲ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﻓﺄﻧﻨﺎ ﻧﺴﺘﻄﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺄﺧﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﻤﻮﺡ ﺑﻪ ) ‪TL‬‬
‫‪( TL‬‬ ‫( ﻟﻜﻞ ﺍﻷﺣﺪﺍﺙ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﻗﻴﺔ ‪ .‬ﻭﻳﺠﺐ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺄﺧﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﻤﻮﺡ ﺑﻪ )‬
‫ﻟﻠﺤﺪﺙ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ) ﺍﻟﺒﺪﺍﻳﺔ( ﺩﺍﺋﻤﺎ ﺗﺴﺎﻭﻱ )‪ ( TE‬ﻭﺗﺴﺎﻭﻱ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺮ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺄﺧﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﻤﻮﺡ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻬﻤﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺴﺎﻋﺪﻧﺎ ﻓﻲ ﻣﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻳﺠﺐ ﺃﻥ ﻻ ﺗﺘﺄﺧﺮ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﻮﻋﺪ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺪﺩ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺇﻻ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺑﺄﻛﻤﻠﻪ ﺳﻴﺘﺄﺧﺮ‪.‬‬
‫ﻓﻤﺜﻼ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺃﻥ ﺑﺪﺃﻧﺎ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭﺟﺪﻧﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ‪ B‬ﻟﻦ ﻳﻨﺘﻬﻲ ﺇﻻ ﺑﻨﻬﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻡ ﺍﻝ ‪ 25‬ﺑﺪﻻ‬
‫ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺪﺩ ﺃﻱ ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻡ ‪ . 20‬ﻫﻞ ﺳﻴﺆﺛﺮ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻛﻜﻞ؟‬

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‫ﻋﻠﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺳﺏ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺠﻮﺍﺏ ﻁﺒﻌﺎ ﺑﻼ! ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﻻﻥ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺄﺧﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﻤﻮﺡ ﺑﻪ ) ‪ ( TL‬ﻟﻠﺤﺪﺙ ‪ ) 4‬ﻭ ﺃﻳﻀﺎ‬
‫ﻟﻠﻨﺸﺎﻁ ‪ ( B‬ﻫﻮ ‪ 30‬ﻳﻮﻣﺎ‪ .‬ﻭﻻ ﻳﻮﺟﺪ ﺃﻱ ﻣﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺑﺈﻧﺘﻬﺎء ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ‪ B‬ﺣﺘﻰ ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻡ ﺍﻝ ‪.30‬‬
‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﻁﺮﻳﻘﺔ ‪PERT‬ﺗﺴﺘﻄﻴﻊ ﺇﻋﻄﺎﺋﻚ ﺍﻟﻜﺜﻴﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻭﺭﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﺤﻜﻢ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺾ )‪(Slack‬‬
‫ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﺳﺌﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻬﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺠﻴﺐ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺃﺳﻠﻮﺏ ‪ PERT‬ﻫﻮ ﻣﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺪﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺘﺄﺧﺮ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﻧﺸﺎﻁ ﺃﻭ ﺣﺪﺙ ﺑﺪﻭﻥ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺴﺒﺐ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺧﻴﺮ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺃﻭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺤﺪﺙ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺗﺄﺧﻴﺮ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺑﺄﻛﻤﻠﻪ‪ .‬ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺘﺄﺧﺮ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﻧﺸﺎﻁ ﺃﻭ‬
‫ﺣﺪﺙ ﺑﺪﻭﻥ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺴﺒﺐ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺧﻴﺮ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺤﺪﺙ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺗﺄﺧﻴﺮ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺑﺄﻛﻤﻠﻪ‬
‫‪ ،‬ﺗﺴﻤﻰ ﺍﻷﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﻀﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻛﻴﻒ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻷﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﻀﺔ؟‬
‫ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺾ ﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺃﻭ ﺣﺪﺙ ﻣﻌﻴﻦ ) ﻭﻧﺮﻣﺰ ﻟﻪ ﺑﺎﻟﺮﻣﺰ ‪ (s‬ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻕ ﺑﻴﻦ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺄﺧﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﻤﻮﺡ ﺑﻪ) ‪ ( TL‬ﻟﻠﺤﺪﺙ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﻜﺮ ) ‪ ( TE‬ﻟﻬﺬﺍ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺤﺪﺙ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ‪ .‬ﺃﻱ ﺍﻧﻪ = )‪(TL – TE‬‬
‫ﻳﻔﺴﺮ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺾ ﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﻣﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻧﻪ ﺍﻟﻤﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﺰﺍﺋﺪﺓ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻊ ) ‪ (te‬ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬
‫ﻣﻤﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺄﺧﺬﻫﺎ ﻧﺸﺎﻁ ﻣﻌﻴﻦ ﺑﺪﻭﻥ ﺃﻱ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺑﺄﻛﻤﻠﻪ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭ ﻳﻔﺴﺮ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺾ ﻟﺤﺪﺙ ﻣﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻧﻪ ﺍﻟﻤﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﺰﺍﺋﺪﺓ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﻜﺮ ﻟﻮﻗﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﺤﺪﺙ‬
‫) ‪ (TE‬ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻣﻤﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻘﻊ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺣﺪﺙ ﻣﻌﻴﻦ ﺑﺪﻭﻥ ﺃﻱ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺑﺄﻛﻤﻠﻪ‪.‬‬

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 ‫ﻋﻠﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺳﺏ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺠﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻳﻮﺿﺢ ﺍﻷﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﻀﺔ ﻟﻸﻧﺸﻄﺔ‪:‬‬

‫ﺍﻷﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﻀﺔ (‪Slacks‬‬ ‫) ‪Latest Allowable ( TL‬‬ ‫‪Earliest Expected Completion‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ‬

‫) ‪TL - TE‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺄﺧﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﻤﻮﺡ ﺑﻪ‬ ‫) ‪time ( TE‬ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﻜﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻊ‬

‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪20‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪A‬‬

‫‪10‬‬ ‫‪30‬‬ ‫‪20‬‬ ‫‪B‬‬
‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪14‬‬ ‫‪14‬‬ ‫‪C‬‬
‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪30‬‬ ‫‪30‬‬ ‫‪D‬‬
‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪48‬‬ ‫‪40‬‬ ‫‪E‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪48‬‬ ‫‪45‬‬ ‫‪F‬‬
‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪66‬‬ ‫‪66‬‬ ‫‪G‬‬
‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪42‬‬ ‫‪36‬‬ ‫‪H‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪66‬‬ ‫‪63‬‬ ‫‪I‬‬
‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪66‬‬ ‫‪60‬‬ ‫‪J‬‬

‫ﺍﻷﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﻀﺔ ﻟﻜﻞ ﺣﺪﺙ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﺣﺪﺍﺙ ﻫﻮ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﺒﻜﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪:‬‬

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‫ﻋﻠﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺳﺏ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺾ ﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ‪ E‬ﻫﻮ ‪ 8‬ﺃﻳﺎﻡ‪ .‬ﺫﻟﻚ ﻳﻌﻨﻲ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ‪E‬ﻣﻤﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺘﺄﺧﺮ ‪ 8‬ﺃﻳﺎﻡ‬
‫ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ) ‪ ، ( te‬ﺃﻱ ﻳﺄﺧﺬ ﺇﻧﺠﺎﺯﻩ ‪ 36 = 8 + 28‬ﻳﻮﻣﺎ‪ .‬ﺃﻭ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ‬
‫ﻣﻤﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺘﺄﺧﺮ ‪ 8‬ﺃﻳﺎﻡ ﻋﻦ ﺑﺪﺍﻳﺘﻪ ‪ .‬ﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺾ ﻟﻠﺤﺪﺙ ‪ 3‬ﻳﻮﺿﺢ ﻟﻨﺎ ﺃﻧﻪ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺤﻴﻞ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺘﺄﺧﺮ ﺍﻟﺤﺪﺙ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﻜﺮ ﻟﻠﺤﺪﺙ )‪ ( TE =14‬ﻭ ﺁﻱ ﺗﺄﺧﺮ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺬﺍ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺤﺪﺙ ﻳﻌﻨﻲ ﺗﺄﺧﺮ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻛﻜﻞ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺤﺮﺝ )‪(The Critical Path CPM‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺤﺮﺝ ﻫﻮ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻼﺣﻘﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﻬﺎ ﺃﻁﻮﻝ ﻓﺘﺮﻩ‬
‫ﻣﻤﻜﻨﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﺍﻳﺔ ﻭﺣﺘﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﻳﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﻨﻈﺮ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺷﺒﻜﺔ ‪ PERT‬ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﻳﺘﻀﺢ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ‬
‫‪ C→D→G‬ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺤﺮﺝ ﻟﻬﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ .‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﺗﻌﺮﻓﻨﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺤﺮﺝ ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﺑﺠﻤﻊ ﻓﺘﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻣﺔ ﻟﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻜﻨﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻜﻦ‬
‫ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺃﺳﻠﻮﺏ ‪ PERT‬ﻓﺈﻧﻨﺎ ﻻ ﻧﺤﺘﺎﺝ ﻻﻥ ﻧﺤﺴﺐ ﺟﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺭﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﺍﺫ ﺍﻧﻪ‬
‫ﺑﺎﻟﺴﻬﻮﻟﺔ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺗﺤﺪﻳﺪﻩ‪.‬‬
‫ﺟﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻓﺎﺋﻀﻬﺎ ﻳﺴﺎﻭﻱ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺮ ‪ ،‬ﻻ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺗﺄﺧﻴﺮﻫﺎ ﻋﻦ ﻣﻮﻋﺪﻫﺎ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺪﺩ ﻭ‬
‫ﺇﻻ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺳﻴﺆﺛﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺑﺄﻛﻤﻠﻪ‪ .‬ﻭﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﻓﺈﻥ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺤﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺪﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﻹﻧﻬﺎء ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺤﺮﺝ‪.‬‬
‫ﻗﺎﻋﺪﺓ ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺤﺮﺝ ﻳﺘﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻻ ﻳﻮﺟﺪ ﺑﻬﺎ ﻓﻮﺍﺋﺾ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺃﻱ )‬
‫‪ . (s=0‬ﺍﻷﺣﺪﺍﺙ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻻ ﻳﻮﺟﺪ ﺑﻬﺎ ﻓﻮﺍﺋﺾ ) ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ﻓﻮﺍﺋﻀﻬﺎ ﺗﺴﺎﻭﻱ ﺃﺻﻔﺎﺭﺍ( ﺗﻜﻮﻥ‬
‫ﺗﻘﻊ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺤﺮﺝ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺑﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻋﺪﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺷﺒﻜﺔ ‪ PERT‬ﻧﺠﺪ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻻ ﻳﻮﺟﺪ ﺑﻬﺎ ﻓﻮﺍﺋﺾ‬
‫ﻫﻲ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ‪ ،D ، C‬ﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ‪ .G‬ﻭﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺤﺮﺝ ﻳﻤﺮ ﺏﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻷﺣﺪﺍﺙ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻳﻮﺟﺪ ﺑﻬﺎ ﻓﻮﺍﺋﺾ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻷﺣﺪﺍﺙ ‪ ، 4 ، 3 ، 1‬ﻭ ﻛﺬﻟﻚ ‪ . 7‬ﻭﻫﺬﻩ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺣﺪﺍﺙ ﺗﺮﺑﻂ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ‪ ،D ، C‬ﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ‪ G‬ﻟﺘﻜﻮﻳﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺤﺮﺝ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻋﻤﻮﻣﺎ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻷﺷﺨﺎﺹ ﺍﻟﺬﻳﻦ ﻳﻌﻤﻠﻮﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺳﺘﻜﻮﻥ ﻋﻼﻗﺘﻬﻢ ﻗﻮﻳﺔ ﺑﺄﻧﺸﻄﺔ‬
‫ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻭﻟﻴﺲ ﻟﻬﻢ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﺎﻷﺣﺪﺍﺙ ‪ ،‬ﻻﻥ ﺍﻷﺣﺪﺍﺙ ﺳﺘﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻦ ﺗﺨﺼﺺ ﻣﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬
‫ﻭ ﻣﺤﻠﻞ ﺷﺒﻜﺔ ‪.PERT‬‬
‫ﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﻓﺈﻧﻪ ﺑﺎﻷﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﺑﻤﻜﺎﻥ ﺍﻻﻫﺘﻤﺎﻡ ﺑﺎﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻘﻊ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺤﺮﺝ ﻭﻳﺠﺐ‬
‫ﻣﻼﺣﻈﺘﻬﺎ ﺑﻌﻨﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﻛﺒﺮ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺮﻛﻴﺰ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺤﻜﻢ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻭﻗﺎﺗﻬﺎ ﺣﺘﻰ ﻻ ﻳﺘﺄﺧﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬
‫ﺑﺄﻛﻤﻠﻪ‪.‬‬

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 ‫ﻋﻠﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺳﺏ‬

‫ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﻫﻤﻴﺔ )‪:(Dummy Activities‬‬

‫ﻓﻲ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻻﺕ ﻧﺠﺪ ﺃﻥ ﺃﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﺗﺸﺎﺭﻙ ﺑﻌﻀﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺒﻌﺾ ﻓﻲ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﻭﻟﻴﺲ ﻛﻠﻬﺎ‪ .‬ﺍﻧﻈﺮ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺠﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ‬
‫‪T , U, V‬‬ ‫‪X‬‬
‫‪T,V‬‬ ‫‪Y‬‬

‫ﻓﻲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﻓﺄﻧﻨﺎ ﻻ ﻧﺴﺘﻄﻴﻊ ﺃﻥ ﻧﻀﻊ ﺣﺪﺙ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﻳﻨﺘﻬﻲ ﻓﻴﻪ ‪ V , U, T‬ﻭﻳﻜﻮﻥ‬
‫ﺑﺪﺍﻳﺔ ﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ‪ X‬ﻭ ﻧﺸﺎﻁ ‪ . Y‬ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﻻﻥ ﻧﺸﺎﻁ ‪ Y‬ﻻ ﻳﺤﺘﺎﺝ ﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ‪ U‬ﺃﻥ ﻳﺘﻢ ﻗﺒﻠﻪ‬
‫ﻛﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺳﺎﺑﻖ‪ .‬ﻭﻓﻲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﻳﺠﺐ ﺃﻥ ﻧﻀﻊ ﻧﺸﺎﻁ ﻭﻫﻤﻲ )‪ ( Dummy Activity‬ﻭ‬
‫ﻧﻌﻄﻴﻪ ﺻﻔﺮﺍ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻦ ) ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ‪ (te =0‬ﻭﻳﻮﺿﻊ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺷﻜﻞ ﺧﻂ ﻣﺘﻘﻄﻊ ﻓﻲ ﺷﺒﻜﺔ‬
‫‪ PERT‬ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻳﻮﺿﺢ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ‪:‬‬

‫ﻭﺑﺎﻓﺘﺮﺍﺽ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﺸﺎﻁ ‪ U =9 , V=8 , T =6‬ﻓﺈﻧﻪ ﺑﻤﺠﺮﺩ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻘﻊ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺤﺪﺙ ‪ ) 5‬ﻣﺜﻼ ( ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﺤﺪﺙ ‪ 6‬ﺳﻴﻘﻊ ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ‪ U‬ﻗﺪ ﺍﻛﺘﻤﻞ ‪ .‬ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺤﺪﺙ ‪ 6‬ﺳﻴﻘﻊ ﻣﺘﻰ ﻣﺎ ﺍﻧﺘﻬﺖ ﺟﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﻼﺛﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﺗﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺣﻴﺚ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻣﺔ‬
‫ﻹﻧﺠﺎﺯﻫﺎ ﺩﺍﺋﻤﺎ ﻳﺴﺎﻭﻱ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺮ ﻓﺈﻥ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺤﻴﻞ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺘﺴﺒﺐ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺗﺄﺧﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬

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‫ﻋﻠﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺳﺏ‬

‫ﺟﺪﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﻗﺎﺕ "‪“ Schedule times‬‬

‫ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﻛﺜﻴﺮﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﻗﻊ ﻳﺠﺐ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻨﺘﻬﻲ ﺑﻨﺎء ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺪﺓ ﻣﺤﺪﺩﺓ ‪ .‬ﻣﺜﻼ ‪،‬‬
‫ﺻﺎﺣﺐ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻳﺮﻳﺪ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻨﺘﻘﻞ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺮ ﺍﻟﺠﺪﻳﺪ ﻓﻲ ﺗﺎﺭﻳﺦ ﻣﻌﻴﻦ ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺍﻻﻧﺘﻬﺎء ﻣﻦ ﺑﻨﺎء‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺮ ﻓﻲ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺑﺎﻷﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﺑﻤﻜﺎﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺜﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ‬
‫ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ‪ Ts :‬ﺗﺮﻣﺰ ﻟﻠﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺄﺧﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﻤﻮﺡ ﺑﻪ ﻹﻛﻤﺎﻝ ﻧﺸﺎﻁ ﻣﻌﻴﻦ ﺃﻭ ﺣﺪﺙ ﻣﻌﻴﻦ‬
‫ﺑﺪﻭﻥ ﺗﺄﺧﻴﺮ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺑﺄﻛﻤﻠﻪ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺭﻳﺦ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺪﺩ ﻟﻪ‪.‬‬
‫ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ ‪ Ss :‬ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺾ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ) ‪ ( TL–Ts‬ﻭﻫﻮ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻕ ﺑﻴﻦ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺄﺧﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﻤﻮﺡ ﺑﻪ ﻹﻛﻤﺎﻝ ﻧﺸﺎﻁ ﺃﻭ ﺣﺪﺙ ﻣﻌﻴﻦ ﺑﺪﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺭﻳﺦ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺪﺩ‬
‫ﻟﺘﺴﻠﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ‪ -‬ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺄﺧﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﻤﻮﺡ ﺑﻪ ﻹﻛﻤﺎﻝ ﻧﺸﺎﻁ ﺃﻭ ﺣﺪﺙ ﻣﻌﻴﻦ ﺑﺪﻭﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺭﻳﺦ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺪﺩ ﻻﻛﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬
‫ﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﻓﺈﻥ ‪ Ts‬ﻟﻠﺤﺪﺙ ﺍﻷﺧﻴﺮ ﻳﺴﺎﻭﻱ ﺗﺎﺭﻳﺦ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻠﻴﻢ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺭﻳﺦ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺮﺭ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻨﺘﻬﻲ ﻓﻴﻪ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ‪ .‬ﺟﻤﻴﻊ ﻗﻴﻢ ‪ Ts‬ﻟﻸﺣﺪﺍﺙ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ ﺳﺘﺤﺴﺐ ﺑﺪﻗﺔ ﺇﺫﺍ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﻣﻨﺎ ﺗﺎﺭﻳﺦ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻠﻴﻢ‬
‫ﻛﺄﺳﺎﺱ ﻟﺤﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻷﺣﺪﺍﺙ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﺜﻼ ﺍﻓﺘﺮﺽ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻧﺤﻦ ﺑﺼﺪﺩﻩ ﻣﻄﻠﻮﺏ ﻟﻪ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻨﺘﻬﻲ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻡ ﺍﻝ ـ ‪. 75‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻗﺪﺭﻧﺎ ﻳﺘﻄﻠﺐ ﻓﻘﻂ ‪ 66‬ﻳﻮﻣﺎ ﻹﻧﻬﺎﺋﻪ‪ .‬ﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﻓﺈﻥ ﻛﻞ ﻗﻴﻢ ‪ Ts‬ﻫﻲ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ‬
‫ﻋﻦ ﻗﻴﻢ ‪ TL‬ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺣﺼﻠﻨﺎ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺇﺿﺎﻓﺔ ‪ ) 9‬ﻭﻫﻲ ‪ (9= 66-75‬ﺃﻳﺎﻡ ) ‪+9‬‬
‫‪ (Ts = TL‬ﻭﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﻔﻮﺍﺋﺾ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﻫﻲ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻔﻮﺍﺋﺾ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺇﺿﺎﻓﺔ‬
‫‪ 9‬ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ) ‪(Ss= s+9‬‬

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 ‫ﻋﻠﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺳﺏ‬

‫ﻗﻴﻢ ‪ Ss‬ﻭﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﻗﻴﻢ ‪ Ts‬ﻟﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﻫﻲ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ‪:‬‬

‫‪Schedule‬‬ ‫‪Schedule time‬‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﻀﺔ‬ ‫‪Latest‬‬ ‫‪Earliest‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ‬
‫) ‪(Ss‬‬ ‫) ‪(T s‬‬ ‫‪Slacks( TL -‬‬ ‫( ‪Allowable‬‬ ‫‪Expected‬‬
‫‪Ss= Ts-‬‬ ‫) ‪ TL‬ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ‬ ‫‪Completion‬‬
‫‪= TL +9‬‬ ‫) ‪TE‬‬
‫‪TE‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺄﺧﺮ‬ ‫) ‪time ( TE‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﻤﻮﺡ ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﻜﺮ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻊ‬

‫‪17‬‬ ‫‪29‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪20‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪A‬‬

‫‪19‬‬ ‫‪39‬‬ ‫‪10‬‬ ‫‪30‬‬ ‫‪20‬‬ ‫‪B‬‬
‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪23‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪14‬‬ ‫‪14‬‬ ‫‪C‬‬
‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪39‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪30‬‬ ‫‪30‬‬ ‫‪D‬‬
‫‪17‬‬ ‫‪57‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪48‬‬ ‫‪40‬‬ ‫‪E‬‬
‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪57‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪48‬‬ ‫‪45‬‬ ‫‪F‬‬
‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪75‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪66‬‬ ‫‪66‬‬ ‫‪G‬‬
‫‪15‬‬ ‫‪51‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪42‬‬ ‫‪36‬‬ ‫‪H‬‬
‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪75‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪66‬‬ ‫‪63‬‬ ‫‪I‬‬
‫‪15‬‬ ‫‪75‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪66‬‬ ‫‪60‬‬ ‫‪J‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ‪ 9‬ﻟﻠﺤﺪﺙ ‪ ) 1‬ﺣﺪﺙ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﺍﻳﺔ ( ﺗﻔﺴﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻧﻨﺎ ﺑﺈﻣﻜﺎﻧﻨﺎ ﺃﻥ ﻧﺒﺪﺃ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺳﻊ‬
‫ﻭﻟﻴﺲ ﺃﻻﻥ ﻭﻣﻊ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻧﺴﺘﻄﻴﻊ ﺃﻥ ﻧﻜﻤﻞ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻡ ﺍﻝ ‪، 75‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻣﺎﺗ ًﻢ ﻛﻞ ﻧﺸﺎﻁ‬
‫ﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺪﺭ ﻟﻪ‪.‬‬

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‫ﻋﻠﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺳﺏ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺸﺒﻜﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺗﻮﺿﺢ ﻗﻴﻢ ‪ Ss‬ﻭﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﻗﻴﻢ ‪ Ts‬ﻟﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻷﺣﺪﺍﺙ‪:‬‬

‫‪- 187 -‬‬

 ‫ﻋﻠﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺳﺏ‬

‫ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻷﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺪﺭﺓ " ‪“ Variable time estimate‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﻣﻨﺎﻫﺎ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻧﺸﺎﻁ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﻫﻲ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﻋﻦ ﺗﻮﻗﻊ ﻭﺗﺨﻤﻴﻦ ﻭﻟﻴﺲ ﺷﻲء‬
‫ﻣﺆﻛﺪ‪ .‬ﻭﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﺔ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﻗﺪ ﻻ ﺗﺄﺧﺬ ﻧﻔﺲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺍﻓﺘﺮﺿﻨﺎﻫﺎ‪ .‬ﻓﻲ ﺑﻌﺾ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺣﻴﺎﻥ ﻗﺪ ﺗﺄﺧﺬ ﻭﻗﺖ ﺃﻁﻮﻝ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻗﺼﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ‪ .‬ﻟﺬﻟﻚ ‪،‬ﻓﻠﻜﻲ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺗﻮﻗﻌﻨﺎ‬
‫ﺍﻗﺮﺏ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﺔ ‪،‬ﻓﺈﻧﻪ ﻳﺠﺐ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﺃﻓﻀﻞ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻹﻁﻼﻕ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻤﺠﺎﻝ ‪،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺘﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﺍﺳﺘﻌﻤﺎﻟﻪ ﻣﻊ ﻁﺒﻴﻌﺔ‬
‫ﻁﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻳﺘﻄﻠﺒﻬﺎ ﺇﻧﺠﺎﺯ ﻧﺸﺎﻁ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ‪،‬ﻫﻮ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ”‪. “ beta‬‬

‫ﺍﻓﺘﺮﺽ ﺃﻧﻨﺎ ﻭﺿﻌﻨﺎ ﺛﻼﺙ ﻓﺘﺮﺍﺕ ﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻡ )‪ ( te‬ﺑﺪﻻ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ‪.‬‬

‫‪-1‬ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻔﺎﺋﻞ )‪(Optimistic estimate‬‬

‫ﻭﻫﻲ ﺍﻗﺼﺮ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﻣﻤﻜﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﺑﺤﻴﺚ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺼﺤﻴﺤﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻳﺄﺧﺬﻫﺎ ﻧﺸﺎﻁ ﻣﻌﻴﻦ ﻳﺠﺐ ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺃﻁﻮﻝ ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺑﻨﺴﺒﺔ ‪ . %99‬ﺍﻓﺘﺮﺽ ﺇﻧﻨﺎ ﺭﻣﺰﻧﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﺮﻣﺰ ) ‪ (a‬ﻟﻬﺬﺍ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ‪.‬‬

‫‪ -2‬ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻷﻛﺜﺮ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻ )‪(Most likely estimate‬‬

‫ﻭﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻘﺎﺑﻞ ﺍﻛﺒﺮ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﻣﻤﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺄﺧﺬﻩ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻮﺍﻝ‬
‫”‪ “ Mode‬ﻭﻟﻴﺲ ﺑﺎﻟﻀﺮﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻳﺄﺧﺬﻫﺎ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺤﺴﺎﺑﻲ ”‪ ، “ Mean‬ﺍﻓﺘﺮﺽ ﺃﻧﻨﺎ ﺍﺳﻤﻴﻨﺎ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ”‪.“ m‬‬

‫‪ -3‬ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺸﺎﺋﻢ )‪(Pessimistic estimate‬‬

‫ﻭﻫﻲ ﺃﻁﻮﻝ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﻣﻤﻜﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﺑﺤﻴﺚ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺼﺤﻴﺤﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻳﺄﺧﺬﻫﺎ ﻧﺸﺎﻁ ﻣﻌﻴﻦ ﻳﺠﺐ ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻗﺼﺮ ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺑﻨﺴﺒﺔ ‪ . %99‬ﺍﻓﺘﺮﺽ ﺇﻧﻨﺎ ﺭﻣﺰﻧﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﺮﻣﺰ “ ‪ “ b‬ﻟﻬﺬﺍ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ‪ .‬ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺑﻴﺘﺎ ﻟﻪ ﺧﺎﺻﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﺣﺪﺓ ﺟﻌﻠﺘﻪ ﺍﻷﻧﺴﺐ ﻭﺍﻷﻓﻀﻞ ﻟﻮﺻﻒ ﺍﻟﻤﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻨﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻳﺘﻄﻠﺒﻬﺎ ﺇﻧﺠﺎﺯ ﻧﺸﺎﻁ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ‪ .‬ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺻﻴﺔ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻧﻪ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻋﺮﻓﻨﺎ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺜﻼﺙ )‬
‫ﺃﻱ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻔﺎﺋﻞ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻷﻛﺜﺮ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺸﺎﺋﻢ( ﻓﺈﻧﻨﺎ ﻧﺴﺘﻄﻴﻊ ﻣﻌﺮﻓﺔ‬

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‫ﻋﻠﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺳﺏ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﻟﺤﺴﺎﺑﻲ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻤﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ) ‪ ، ( te‬ﻭ ﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ ‪ σ2e‬ﻟﻬﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﻛﻤﺎ‬
‫ﻳﻠﻲ‪:‬‬

‫= ‪te‬‬ ‫‪a +4m + b‬‬

‫‪6‬‬

‫‪b-a‬‬
‫= ‪σ2e‬‬ ‫(‬ ‫‪)2‬‬
‫‪6‬‬

‫ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺑﻴﺘﺎ ﻳﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ ﺑﺄﻧﻪ ﻟﻴﺲ ﺑﺎﻟﻀﺮﻭﺭﺓ ﻣﺘﻨﺎﺳﻖ ﺣﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﻷﻧﻪ ﺑﺈﻣﻜﺎﻧﻨﺎ ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﻣﺘﻔﺎﺋﻞ ”‪ “a‬ﻗﺮﻳﺐ ﺟﺪﺍ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻷﻛﺜﺮ‬
‫ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻ ”‪ “ m‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺸﺎﺋﻢ ”‪ ” b‬ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺑﻌﻴﺪ ﺟﺪﺍ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻷﻛﺜﺮ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻ ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﻜﺲ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﻳﻌﺮﻑ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎء ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺤﺮﻑ "‪“ Skewed distribution‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻳﻮﺿﺢ ﺍﻷﺷﻜﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺜﻼﺛﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻜﻨﺔ ﻟﻔﺘﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺣﺴﺐ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺑﻴﺘﺎ ‪:‬‬

‫ﺍﻵﻥ ﺩﻋﻨﺎ ﻧﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺜﻼﺙ ) ﺃﻱ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻔﺎﺋﻞ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻷﻛﺜﺮ‬
‫ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺸﺎﺋﻢ( ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺑﺪﻻ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ‪ .‬ﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺤﺴﺎﺑﻲ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ‪ te‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ ‪ σ2e‬ﻓﻲ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ‪.‬‬

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 ‫ﻋﻠﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺳﺏ‬

‫‪σ2e‬‬ ‫‪ te‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻳﻮﺿﺢ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﻟﺤﺴﺎﺑﻲ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ‬

‫ﻟﻔﺘﺮﺍﺕ ﺟﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ‪:‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻷﻛﺜﺮ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺸﺎﺋﻢ‬ ‫ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻔﺎﺋﻞ‬
‫‪1.78‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪16‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪A‬‬ ‫‪31B‬‬

‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪20‬‬ ‫‪31‬‬ ‫‪19‬‬ ‫‪13‬‬ ‫‪B‬‬ ‫‪32B‬‬

‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪14‬‬ ‫‪20‬‬ ‫‪14‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪C‬‬ ‫‪3B‬‬

‫‪16‬‬ ‫‪16‬‬ ‫‪28‬‬ ‫‪16‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪D‬‬

‫‪34B‬‬

‫‪40.11‬‬ ‫‪28‬‬ ‫‪57‬‬ ‫‪23‬‬ ‫‪19‬‬ ‫‪E‬‬ ‫‪35B‬‬

‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪15‬‬ ‫‪21‬‬ ‫‪15‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪F‬‬ ‫‪36B‬‬

‫‪16‬‬ ‫‪36‬‬ ‫‪48‬‬ ‫‪36‬‬ ‫‪24‬‬ ‫‪G‬‬

‫‪37B‬‬

‫‪7.11‬‬ ‫‪22‬‬ ‫‪30‬‬ ‫‪22‬‬ ‫‪14‬‬ ‫‪H‬‬

‫‪38B‬‬

‫‪2.78‬‬ ‫‪18‬‬ ‫‪23‬‬ ‫‪18‬‬ ‫‪13‬‬ ‫‪I‬‬ ‫‪39B‬‬

‫‪11.11‬‬ ‫‪24‬‬ ‫‪34‬‬ ‫‪24‬‬ ‫‪14‬‬ ‫‪J‬‬ ‫‪40B‬‬

‫ﻣﺜﻼ ﻟﺤﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﻟﻠﻨﺸﺎﻁ ‪ B‬ﻓﺈﻥ ‪:‬‬

‫= ‪te‬‬ ‫‪13+ 4(19) +31‬‬ ‫‪120/ 6 = 20‬‬

‫‪6‬‬

‫‪31-13‬‬
‫= ‪σ2e‬‬ ‫(‬ ‫‪6‬‬
‫‪)2‬‬ ‫‪(3)2 =9‬‬

‫ﻻﺣﻆ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺜﻼﺙ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻭﺿﻌﻨﺎﻫﺎ ) ﺃﻱ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻔﺎﺋﻞ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻷﻛﺜﺮ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻ ‪،‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺸﺎﺋﻢ( ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺠﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺿُﻌﺖ ﻟﻜﻲ ﺗﺘﻔﻖ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﻓﺈﻥ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻮﻳﺾ ﻓﻲ )‪ (te‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺟﺎءﺕ ﻛﺎﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﺑﺪﻭﻥ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ‪.‬‬

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‫ﻋﻠﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺳﺏ‬

‫ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ )‪(Project Duration‬‬

‫ﻣﻦ ﺃﻫﻢ ﺍﻷﺳﺌﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮﺏ ﺍﻹﺟﺎﺑﺔ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻓﻴﻦ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ‪ ،‬ﻫﻲ ﺃﺳﺌﻠﺔ‬
‫ﺗﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﺎﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻨﺘﻬﻲ ﻓﻴﻪ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ .‬ﻭ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﺴﺆﺍﻝ ﻫﻮ ﺑﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻛﻢ ﻧﺤﻦ ﻭﺍﺛﻘﻮﻥ‬
‫ﺑﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺳﻴﻨﺘﻬﻲ ﻓﻲ ﻭﻗﺖ ﺃﻭ ﺗﺎﺭﻳﺦ ﻣﻌﻴﻦ؟‬
‫ﻭﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺜﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﻲ ﻣﻤﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻧُﺴﺄﻝ ‪ :‬ﺑﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻛﻢ ﻧﺤﻦ ﻭﺍﺛﻘﻮﻥ ﺑﺄﻧﻨﺎ ﺳﻨﻜﻤﻞ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻗﺒﻞ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻡ ﺍﻟـ ‪75‬؟‬
‫ﺑﺈﻣﻜﺎﻧﻨﺎ ﺇﺭﻓﺎﻕ ﻣﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻟﻼﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻫﺬﻩ ‪ ،‬ﻣﺜﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﻭ ﺍﻻﻧﺤﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻟﻸﻭﻗﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺣﺴﺒﻨﺎﻫﺎ ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﻣﺜﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻗﻴﺖ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﻜﺮ ﻟﻸﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻷﺣﺪﺍﺙ‪ .‬ﻭﻟﻜﻦ ﻧﺤﻦ ﺍﻵﻥ ﺑﺼﺪﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺮﻛﻴﺰ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﻭﻗﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﺤﺪﺙ ﺍﻷﺧﻴﺮ ) ﺣﺪﺙ ‪ ( 7‬ﻭ ﻫﻮ ﺣﺪﺙ ﺍﻻﻧﺘﻬﺎء ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬
‫ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ ‪ σ2E :‬ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﻓﻲ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺇﻛﻤﺎﻝ ﻧﺸﺎﻁ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺣﺪﺙ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﺣﺪﺍﺙ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺃﻻﻥ ﺩﻋﻨﺎ ﻧﻘﻮﻡ ﺑﺼﻴﺎﻏﺔ ﻭﻗﺖ ﺇﺗﻤﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻧﻪ ﻳُﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻜﺘﻤﻞ ﻓﻲ ﺧﻼﻝ ‪66‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫ﻳﻮﻣﺎ ﻭ ﺑﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ ‪ . σ E‬ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻢ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ‪ 66‬ﻳﻮﻣﺎ ﺟﺎء ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﻭﻣﻦ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗ ًﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺤﺮﺝ‪.‬‬
‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺇﺗﻤﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻫﻲ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﻋﻦ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻉ ‪ 3‬ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﻋﺸﻮﺍﺋﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ‬
‫ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﻋﻦ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻉ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺜﻼﺙ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻮﺍﺋﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ‬
‫ﻧﻈﺮﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺰﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﻛﺰﻳﺔ ”‪ “ Central limit theory‬ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻘﻮﻝ ‪ :‬ﺍﻧﻪ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺟﻤﻊ ﻋﺪﺓ‬
‫ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﻋﺸﻮﺍﺋﻴﺔ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺑﻐﺾ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮ ﻋﻦ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻌﺎﺗﻬﺎ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﻫﻮ‬
‫ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﻋﺸﻮﺍﺋﻲ ﻳﻘﺘﺮﺏ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ‪ .‬ﻭﻛﻠﻤﺎ ﺯﺍﺩ ﻋﺪﺩ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻮﺍﺋﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ ﻫﺬﻩ ‪ ،‬ﻛﻠﻤﺎ ﺍﻗﺘﺮﺏ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ‪ .‬ﻭﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﻫﻮ‬
‫ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﻋﻦ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻉ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻄﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻮﺍﺋﻴﺔ ) ﺃﻱ ﻓﺘﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ(‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺗﺒﺎﻳﻨﻪ ﻫﻮ‬
‫ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﻋﻦ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻉ ﺗﺒﺎﻳﻨﺎﺕ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻮﺍﺋﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﻓﺈﻥ ‪:‬‬
‫ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﻟﻤﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻳﺄﺧﺬﻫﺎ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ = ‪ 66 = 36+16+ 14‬ﻳﻮﻣﺎ ) ﻛﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ(‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫ﻭﺗﺒﺎﻳﻨﻪ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ‪ 36 = 4 + 16 + 16 = σ e‬ﻳﻮﻣﺎ‬
‫ﻭ ﺍﻻﻧﺤﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ = ‪ 6 = 36‬ﻳﻮﻡ‬

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 ‫ﻋﻠﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺳﺏ‬

‫ﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﻓﺈﻧﻪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻧﺘﺼﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻳﺄﺧﺬﻫﺎ ﺇﻛﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻛﺘﻤﺎﻝ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺃﻭ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺍﻟﻤﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺮﺭﺓ ﻭﻫﻲ ‪ 75‬ﻳﻮﻣﺎ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬

‫ﻭﻟﺤﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺇﻛﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻓﻲ ‪ 75‬ﻳﻮﻣﺎ ﻓﺈﻧﻪ ﻳﺠﺐ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ) ﺃﻱ ﺑﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ = ﺻﻔﺮ ﻭ ﺍﻧﺤﺮﺍﻑ ﻣﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ = ‪( 1‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﺴﺆﺍﻝ ﻫﻮ ﻣﺎ ﻫﻮ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺑﺎﻥ ﻧﺄﺧﺬ ﻋﻴﻨﺔ ﻋﺸﻮﺍﺋﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺠﺘﻤﻊ ﻁﺒﻴﻌﻲ ﻣﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ‬
‫ﺑﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ‪ 66‬ﻭﺍﻧﺤﺮﺍﻑ ﻣﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ‪ ، 6‬ﻭﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﺍﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻭ ﻳﺴﺎﻭﻱ ‪ 75‬؟‬
‫ﻭﻟﻠﻮﺻﻮﻝ ﻟﻠﺠﻮﺍﺏ ﻓﺈﻧﻪ ﺃﻭﻻ ﻳﺠﺐ ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ‪ ) z‬ﻟﺘﺤﻮﻳﻠﻪ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﻋﺸﻮﺍﺋﻲ‬
‫ﻣﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻁﺒﻴﻌﻲ (‪.‬‬

‫=‪z‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺮﺭﺓ ﻟﻠﺘﺴﻠﻴﻢ ‪ -‬ﺍﻟﻤﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻣﺔ ﻹﻛﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

‫ﺍﻻﻧﺤﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ‬

‫=‪z‬‬ ‫‪75 - 66‬‬

‫=‬ ‫‪1.5‬‬
‫‪6‬‬

‫ﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﻓﺈﻥ ‪ 75‬ﻳﻮﻣﺎ ﺗﻘﺎﺑﻞ ﺍﻧﺤﺮﺍﻑ ﻣﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ‪ 1.5‬ﻓﻮﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ‪ .‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺮﺟﻮﻉ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺟﺪﻭﻝ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﻤﻴﻌﻲ ) ‪Cumulative Standard Normal‬‬
‫‪ (Distribution‬ﻓﺈﻧﻨﺎ ﻧﺠﺪ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ‪ 1.5‬ﺗﻘﺎﺑﻞ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ‪ . 0.9332‬ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﻳﻜﺘﻤﻞ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻡ ﺍﻝ ـ ‪ ، %93 = 75‬ﻭﺑﺎﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﻹﻛﻤﺎﻝ‬

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‫ﻋﻠﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺳﺏ‬

‫‪G-‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻫﻮ ‪ 66‬ﻳﻮﻣﺎ ﺣُﺪﺩ ﺑﻮﺍﺳﻄﺔ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻘﻊ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺤﺮﺝ ) ﺃﻱ‬
‫‪( D-C‬‬
‫ﻣﻊ ﺇﻧﻨﺎ ﺍﻓﺘﺮﺿﻨﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﻹﻛﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻫﻲ ‪ 66‬ﻳﻮﻣﺎ‪ ،‬ﺃﻻ ﺃﻥ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻗﺪ ﻻ‬
‫ﻳﺤﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﺼﺤﻴﺢ ‪ ،‬ﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﺃﻥ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ ﻗﺪ ﻳﺄﺧﺬ ﻭﻗﺖ ﺃﻁﻮﻝ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺤﺮﺝ ﺃﻭ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺤﺮﺝ ﻗﺪ ﻳﻜﺘﻤﻞ ﻓﻲ ﻭﻗﺖ ﺍﻗﻞ‪.‬‬
‫ﺃﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺄﺧﺬ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺭ ‪ A-E-I‬ﻭﻗﺘﺎ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻦ ‪ 43‬ﻳﻮﻣﺎ‪.‬‬

‫ﺃﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﻭﻗﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﺤﺪﺙ " ‪“ Event occurrence times‬‬

‫ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺇﻛﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻫﻲ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﻜﺮ ‪ TE‬ﻟﻮﻗﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﺤﺪﺙ ﺍﻷﺧﻴﺮ‪ ،‬ﻭﺧﺎﺻﺔ‬
‫‪ σ2E‬ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺍﻓﻖ ﻟﻠﻮﻗﺖ‬ ‫ﻻﻥ ‪ TE‬ﻟﻠﺤﺪﺙ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ﺑﺪﺃ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺮ‪ .‬ﻭﺑﺈﻣﻜﺎﻧﻨﺎ ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺒﻜﺮ ‪ TE‬ﻟﻜﻞ ﺣﺪﺙ ‪ .‬ﻭﺳﻨﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﺗﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ‪ σ2e‬ﻟﻠﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﺒﺎﻳﻦ‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺤﺪﺙ ‪ . σ2E‬ﻓﻠﻜﻞ ﺣﺪﺙ ﻣﻌﻴﻦ ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﻓﻲ ﻭﻗﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﺤﺪﺙ ) ‪ = ( σ E‬ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫) ‪ ( σ E‬ﻟﻠﺤﺪﺙ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﻟﻪ ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ‪ +‬ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ ) ‪ ( σ e‬ﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺮﺑﻂ ﺑﻴﻦ‬
‫ﻫﺬﻳﻦ ﺍﻟﺤﺪﺛﻴﻦ‪.‬‬
‫ﻓﻤﺜﻼ‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﻟﻠﺤﺪﺙ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ ، 0 = σ E‬ﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﻳﻒ‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﻟﻠﺤﺪﺙ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ‪= σ E‬ﺗﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﺍﻟﺤﺪﺙ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ +‬ﺗﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺮﺑﻂ ﺍﻟﺤﺪﺙ ‪2‬‬
‫ﺑﺎﻟﺤﺪﺙ ‪ ) 1‬ﺃﻱ ﺗﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ‪( A‬‬
‫=‪1.78 = 1.78 + 0‬‬
‫ﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﺍﻟﺤﺪﺙ ‪ 4 = 4 + 0 = 3‬ﺃﻳﺎﻡ‬
‫ﻭﻟﻜﻦ ﺍﻟﺤﺪﺙ ‪ ، 4‬ﺍﺻﻌﺐ ﻗﻠﻴﻼ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﻮﺟﺪ ﻧﺸﺎﻁﻴﻦ ﺳﺎﺑﻘﻴﻦ ﻟﻠﺤﺪﺙ ‪ 4‬ﻭﻫﻢ ‪D , B‬‬
‫ﻭﻟﻤﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﻟﻬﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺤﺪﺙ ﻓﺈﻧﻪ ﻳﺠﺐ ﻣﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﺃﻱ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁﻴﻦ ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﺣﺪﺩ ﻭﻗﺖ‬
‫ﻣﺒﻜﺮ ‪ 30 = TE‬ﻳﻮﻣﺎ ﻟﻠﺤﺪﺙ ‪ 4‬؟‬
‫ﺇﻧﻪ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ‪ D‬ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﻻﻥ ‪ 30 = TE‬ﻫﻲ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﻋﻦ ﺟﻤﻊ ‪ 30 = 16 + 14‬ﻳﻮﻣﺎ‬

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 ‫ﻋﻠﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺳﺏ‬

‫ﺷﺒﻜﺔ ‪ PERT‬ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺗﻮﺿﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﻟﻜﻞ ﺍﻷﺣﺪﺍﺙ ‪:‬‬

‫ﻭﻫﻮ ﻋﻦ ﻁﺮﻳﻖ ﺍﻟﺤﺪﺙ ‪ . 3‬ﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﻓﻌﻨﺪ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﻟﻬﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺤﺪﺙ ﻓﺈﻧﻨﺎ ﻧﺠﻤﻊ ﺗﺒﺎﻳﻦ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺤﺪﺙ ‪ + 3‬ﺗﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ = ‪ 20 = 16 + 4‬ﻳﻮﻣﺎ‬
‫ﻭﻳﻔﺴﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﻭﻗﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﺤﺪﺙ ‪ 4‬ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻳﺘﺒﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ ﺑﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺣﺴﺎﺑﻲ )‬
‫‪ (TE‬ﻳﺴﺎﻭﻱ ‪ 30‬ﻳﻮﻣﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﺒﺎﻳﻦ ‪ 20‬ﻳﻮﻣﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻜﻦ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻘﻊ ﺍﻟﺤﺪﺙ ‪ 4‬ﻗﺒﻞ ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻡ ‪ . 35‬ﻭﻟﺤﺴﺎﺏ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻓﺈﻧﻨﺎ ﺃﻭﻻ‬
‫ﻧﺴﺘﺨﺮﺝ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ‪z‬‬

‫=‪z‬‬ ‫‪35 - 30‬‬

‫‪= 1.12‬‬
‫‪20‬‬

‫ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺮﺟﻮﻉ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﻤﻴﻌﻲ ‪ ،‬ﺑﺈﻣﻜﺎﻧﻨﺎ ﺇﻳﺠﺎﺩ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ‪:‬‬
‫‪z ≤ 1.12‬‬
‫ﻭﻫﻜﺬﺍ ﻣﻤﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻧﻜﻤﻞ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﻟﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻷﺣﺪﺍﺙ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﻗﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻼﺣﻈﺔ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ‬
‫ﻟﻠﺤﺪﺙ ﺍﻷﺧﻴﺮ )‪ (7‬ﻳﺠﺐ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺴﺎﻭﻱ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺹ ﺑﺎﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﻹﻧﻬﺎء ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬
‫ﺑﺄﻛﻤﻠﻪ‪.‬‬

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‫ﻋﻠﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺳﺏ‬

‫ﺃﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺇﺗﻤﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ )‪(Activity-Completion Times‬‬

‫ﺑﺈﻣﻜﺎﻧﻨﺎ ﺃﻳﻀﺎ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻧﺸﺎﻁ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺣﺪﺓ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻘﺎﻋﺪﺓ ﻫﻲ ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪ σ2e‬ﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ‬ ‫ﺗﺒﺎﻳﻦ ) ‪ ( σ2‬ﻧﺸﺎﻁ ﻣﻌﻴﻦ = ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ ‪ σ2‬ﻟﻠﺤﺪﺙ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ‪ +‬ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ‬
‫‪E‬‬ ‫‪E‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﻧﻔﺴﻪ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺠﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻳﻮﺿﺢ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻊ ) ‪ (TE‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﻹﻛﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ‪:‬‬
‫) ‪ Earliest Expected Completion time ( TE‬ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ ‪Variance‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ‬
‫‪σ2‬‬ ‫‪E‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﻜﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻊ‬
‫‪1.78‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪A‬‬
‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪20‬‬ ‫‪B‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪14‬‬ ‫‪C‬‬
‫‪20‬‬ ‫‪30‬‬ ‫‪D‬‬
‫‪41.89‬‬ ‫‪40‬‬ ‫‪E‬‬
‫‪24‬‬ ‫‪45‬‬ ‫‪F‬‬
‫‪36‬‬ ‫‪66‬‬ ‫‪G‬‬
‫‪11.11‬‬ ‫‪36‬‬ ‫‪H‬‬
‫‪26.78‬‬ ‫‪63‬‬ ‫‪I‬‬
‫‪22.22‬‬ ‫‪60‬‬ ‫‪J‬‬

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 ‫ﻋﻠﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺳﺏ‬

‫ﻣﺴﺎﺋﻞ ﻣﺤﻠﻮﻟﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﺮﺍﻣﺞ ﻭﻣﺮﺍﺟﻌﺘﻬﺎ ﻭﻁﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺤﺮﺝ‬
‫)‪(CPM‬‬
‫‪ ) .1‬ﺗﺨﻄﻴﻂ ﻣﻨﺸﺂﺕ ﺳﻴﺎﺣﻴﺔ ( ﺷﺮﻛﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺘﺠﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻮﻁﻨﻴﺔ ﻗﺎﻣﺖ ﺑﺸﺮﺍء ﺍﺭﺽ‬
‫ﻣﺴﺎﺣﺘﻬﺎ ‪ 16‬ﻛﻢ ‪ 2‬ﺑﻤﺪﻳﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﺮﻳﺎﺽ ﻹﻗﺎﻣﺔ ﺍﺳﺘﺮﺍﺣﺎﺕ ﻁﺒﻴﻌﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺃﺷﺠﺎﺭ ﻭﻣﻼﻋﺐ‬
‫ﺃﻁﻔﺎﻝ ﻭﻣﺴﻄﺤﺎﺕ ﺧﻀﺮﺍء ﻭ ﻣﺎﺋﻴﺔ ﻭ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻣﺔ ﻟﺘﺨﻄﻴﻂ ﺍﻷﺭﺽ ﻭ‬
‫ﺗﺴﻮﻳﺘﻬﺎ ﻭﺗﻘﺴﻴﻤﻬﺎ ﻭ ﺯﺭﺍﻋﺘﻬﺎ ﻭﺗﺸﺠﻴﺮﻫﺎ ﻭ ﺑﻨﺎءﻫﺎ ﻳﺘﻄﻠﺐ ﺇﻧﺠﺎﺯ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪:‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ )‪(predecessor activities‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ )‪(Activity‬‬

‫ﻻ ﻳﻮﺟﺪ‬ ‫‪A‬‬
‫ﻻ ﻳﻮﺟﺪ‬ ‫‪B‬‬
‫‪A‬‬ ‫‪C‬‬
‫‪A‬‬ ‫‪D‬‬
‫‪A,B‬‬ ‫‪E‬‬
‫‪B,A‬‬ ‫‪F‬‬
‫‪C,E‬‬ ‫‪G‬‬
‫‪D,G‬‬ ‫‪H‬‬
‫‪E‬‬ ‫‪I‬‬
‫‪F‬‬ ‫‪K‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮﺏ ﺭﺳﻢ ﺷﺠﺮﺓ ﺑﻴﺮﺕ ﻓﻘﻂ‬
‫‪) .2‬ﺗﺨﻄﻴﻂ ﺃﺣﺪﺍﺙ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ( ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺍﻷﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻊ ) ‪ (te‬ﻫﻲ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻫﻮ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺷﺒﻜﺔ ﺑﻴﺮﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﺍﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮﺏ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺮﺍﺝ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﻜﺮ ) ‪ (TE‬ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺘﺄﺧﺮ ) ‪(TL‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﻔﻮﺍﺋﺾ )‪ (Slacks‬ﻷﺣﺪﺍﺙ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭﺍﺳﺘﺨﺮﺍﺝ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺤﺮﺝ )‪:(CPM‬‬

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‫ﻋﻠﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺳﺏ‬

‫‪ .3‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺍﻷﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﻟﻸﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻹﺣﺪﺍﺙ ﻷﺣﺪ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﻫﻲ‬
‫ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮﺏ‪:‬‬
‫ﺃ‪ -‬ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻨﺘﻬﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻓﻲ ﺧﻼﻝ ‪ 14‬ﻳﻮﻣﺎ ) ‪ 14‬ﻳﻮﻡ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻗﻞ(؟‬
‫ﺏ ‪ -‬ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻨﺘﻬﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻓﻲ ﺧﻼﻝ ‪ 10‬ﺃﻳﺎﻡ ) ‪ 10‬ﺃﻳﺎﻡ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻗﻞ( ؟‬
‫ﺝ ‪ -‬ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻨﺘﻬﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ‪ D‬ﻓﻲ ﻣﺪﺓ ﺗﺘﺮﺍﻭﺡ ﺑﻴﻦ ‪ 5‬ﺇﻟﻰ ‪ 10‬ﺃﻳﺎﻡ؟‬
‫ﺩ ‪ -‬ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻨﺘﻬﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ‪ D‬ﻓﻲ ﺧﻼﻝ ‪ 10‬ﺃﻳﺎﻡ؟‬
‫‪ .4‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺷﺒﻜﺔ – ﺧﺎﺭﻁﺔ‪ PERT -‬ﺷﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﻟﻸﻧﺸﻄﺔ‬
‫ﻫﻲ ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬

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 ‫ﻋﻠﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺳﺏ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮﺏ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻨﺘﻬﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻓﻲ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﻻ ﺗﻘﻞ ﻋﻦ ‪ 46‬ﻳﻮﻡ؟‬
‫ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻨﺘﻬﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻓﻲ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﻻ ﺗﺰﻳﺪ ﻋﻦ ‪ 86‬ﻳﻮﻡ؟‬
‫ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺒﺪﺃ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ‪ G‬ﻓﻲ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﻻ ﺗﺰﻳﺪ ﻋﻦ ‪ 40‬ﻳﻮﻣﺎ؟‬
‫ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺒﺪﺃ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ‪ G‬ﻓﻲ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺗﺘﺮﺍﻭﺡ ﺑﻴﻦ ‪ 30‬ﺇﻟﻰ ‪ 50‬ﻳﻮﻣﺎ؟‬

‫‪ .5‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺗﺴﻮﻳﻖ ﻣﻨﺘﺞ ﻫﻲ ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ)‪ ( Activities‬ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ) ‪(Predecessors‬‬
‫ﻻ ﻳﻮﺟﺪ‬ ‫‪57B‬‬ ‫‪ : A‬ﺗﺪﺭﻳﺐ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻝ‬
‫ﻻ ﻳﻮﺟﺪ‬ ‫‪58B‬‬ ‫‪ : B‬ﺷﺮﺍء ﺍﻵﻻﺕ‬
‫‪A,B‬‬ ‫‪ :C‬ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺩﺓ )‪(1‬‬
‫‪B‬‬ ‫‪ :D‬ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺩﺓ )‪(2‬‬
‫‪D‬‬ ‫‪ :E‬ﺍﺧﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺩﺓ )‪(2‬‬
‫‪C, E‬‬ ‫‪ :F‬ﻣﺰﺝ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺩﺗﻴﻦ )‪1‬‬
‫‪(2،‬‬

‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮﺏ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺼﺤﻴﺢ ﻟﺸﺒﻜﺔ ‪ PERT‬ﻣﻦ ﺑﻴﻦ ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻮﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪:‬‬

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‫ﻋﻠﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺳﺏ‬

‫‪ .6‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻟﺠﺰﻳﺮﺓ ﻫﻲ ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬

‫ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ) ‪Predecessors‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ)‪( Activities‬‬
‫ﻻ ﻳﻮﺟﺪ‬ ‫‪59B‬‬ ‫‪ : A‬ﺗﺪﺭﻳﺐ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻝ‬
‫ﻻ ﻳﻮﺟﺪ‬ ‫‪60B‬‬ ‫‪ : B‬ﺷﺮﺍء ﺍﻵﻻﺕ‬
‫‪B‬‬ ‫‪ :C‬ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺩﺓ )‪(1‬‬
‫‪A‬‬ ‫‪ :D‬ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺩﺓ )‪(2‬‬
‫‪D,B‬‬ ‫‪ :E‬ﺍﺧﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺩﺓ )‪(2‬‬

‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮﺏ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺼﺤﻴﺢ ﻟﺸﺒﻜﺔ ‪ PERT‬ﻣﻦ ﺑﻴﻦ ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻮﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪:‬‬

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 ‫ﻋﻠﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺳﺏ‬

‫‪ .7‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺷﺒﻜﺔ ﺑﻴﺮﺕ ‪ PERT‬ﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭ ﻫﻲ ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮﺏ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻘﻊ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺤﺮﺝ ‪CPM‬‬

‫‪a) A, ,Dummy,D‬‬

‫‪b) A,Dummy,E‬‬

‫‪c) B,C,D‬‬

‫‪d) B,C,E‬‬

‫‪e) A,Dummy, C,B‬‬

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‫ﻋﻠﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺳﺏ‬

‫‪ .8‬ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻣﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ‪.‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﺑﺎﻷﺳﺎﺑﻴﻊ ﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻟﺠﺰﻳﺮﺓ‬

‫ﻫﻲ ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪te‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺸﺎﺋﻢ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻔﺎﺋﻞ ﺍﻷﻛﺜﺮ‬
‫ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻ )‪(b) (m‬‬ ‫)‪(a‬‬
‫‪2.75‬‬ ‫‪3.5‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪A‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3.5‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪B‬‬
‫‪4.5‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪C‬‬
‫‪5.5‬‬ ‫‪10‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪D‬‬
‫‪5.5‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪E‬‬
‫‪3.5‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪3.5‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪F‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮﺏ ﺁﻻﺗﻲ‪ :‬ﺑﺎﻻﺳﺘﻌﺎﻧﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺠﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﻓﻖ ﺍﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮﺏ‪:‬‬

‫ﺃ ‪ -‬ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﻜﺮ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺘﺄﺧﺮ ﻟﻸﺣﺪﺍﺙ ﻭ ﻟﻸﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﻭﺗﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺤﺮﺝ؟‬

‫ﺏ‪ -‬ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻨﺘﻬﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻓﻲ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺗﺘﺮﺍﻭﺡ ﺑﻴﻦ ‪ 10‬ﺇﻟﻰ ‪ 15‬ﺃﺳﺒﻮﻋﺎ؟‬
‫ﺝ‪ -‬ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻨﺘﻬﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻓﻲ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﻻ ﺗﻘﻞ ﻋﻦ ‪ 14‬ﺃﺳﺒﻮﻉ ) ﺃﻱ ‪ 14‬ﺃﺳﺒﻮﻋﺎ ﺃﻭ‬
‫ﺃﻛﺜﺮ(؟‬
‫ﺩ‪ -‬ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺒﺪﺃ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ‪ d‬ﻓﻲ ﻣﺪﺓ ﻻ ﺗﺰﻳﺪ ﻋﻦ ‪ 3‬ﺃﺳﺎﺑﻴﻊ؟‬

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 ‫ﻋﻠﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺳﺏ‬

‫ﺣﻞ ﻣﺸﻜﻠﺔ ‪ Pert‬ﻭ ‪ CPM‬ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﺳﺐ‬

‫ﺣﻞ ﻣﺸﺎﻛﻞ ‪ Pert‬ﻭ ‪ CPM‬ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻛﺴﻞ )‪(Excel‬‬

‫ﻫﻨﺎ ﻧﺴﺘﺮﺟﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﺳﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﻭ ﻣﻠﺨﺺ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺠﺪﻭﻝ ﻭ‬
‫ﺧﺮﻳﻄﺔ ﺑﻴﺮﺕ )‪ (PERT‬ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺘﻴﻦ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻢ ﺣﻠﻬﺎ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺷﺒﻜﺔ ‪ Pert‬ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻔﺼﻴﻞ‪:‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ‬
‫)‪Expected duration (te‬‬
‫‪12‬‬ ‫ﻻ ﻳﻮﺟﺪ‬ ‫‪A‬‬
‫‪41B‬‬

‫‪20‬‬ ‫ﻻ ﻳﻮﺟﺪ‬ ‫‪B‬‬ ‫‪42B‬‬

‫‪14‬‬ ‫ﻻ ﻳﻮﺟﺪ‬ ‫‪C‬‬ ‫‪43B‬‬

‫‪16‬‬ ‫‪C‬‬ ‫‪45B‬‬ ‫‪D‬‬

‫‪4B‬‬

‫‪28‬‬ ‫‪A‬‬ ‫‪47B‬‬ ‫‪E‬‬ ‫‪46B‬‬

‫‪15‬‬ ‫‪D, B‬‬

‫‪49B‬‬ ‫‪F‬‬ ‫‪48B‬‬

‫‪36‬‬ ‫‪D, B‬‬

‫‪51B‬‬ ‫‪G‬‬
‫‪50B‬‬

‫‪22‬‬ ‫‪C‬‬ ‫‪53B‬‬ ‫‪H‬‬

‫‪52B‬‬

‫‪18‬‬ ‫‪E, F‬‬ ‫‪5B‬‬ ‫‪I‬‬ ‫‪54B‬‬

‫‪24‬‬ ‫‪H‬‬ ‫‪J‬‬ ‫‪56B‬‬

‫ﻭ ﺍﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮﺏ ﺣﻞ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﻭ ﺗﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺤﺮﺝ ﻭﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﻟﻼﻧﺘﻬﺎء ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ‬

‫ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﺍﻛﺴﻞ )‪.(EXCEL‬‬

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‫ﻋﻠﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺳﺏ‬

‫ﻟﺤﻞ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﻳﺘﻌﻴﻦ ﻋﻠﻴﻨﺎ ﺇﺗﺒﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺨﻄﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﺘﺴﻬﻴﻞ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﻞ‪:‬‬
‫ﺍﻻﻧﺘﻘﺎﻝ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﺍﻛﺴﻞ ) ‪ (EXCEL‬ﻭ ﻭﺿﻊ ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﺑﻴﺮﺕ ) ‪ (PERT‬ﺑﺎﻟﺸﻜﻞ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫• ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺻﻒ ﻭﺗﺴﻤﻴﺘﻪ ﺍﻷﺣﺪﺍﺙ ﻭﻭﺿﻊ ﺃﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻷﺣﺪﺍﺙ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺼﻒ‪.‬‬
‫• ﻛﻞ ﺧﻠﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺨﻼﻳﺎ ﺗﻤﺜﻞ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﻜﺮ ﻟﺒﺪﺍﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺪﺙ‪.‬‬
‫• ﻧﺒﺪﺃ ﺑﻮﺿﻊ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺻﻔﺮ )‪ (0‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺨﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻤﺜﻞ ﺍﻟﺤﺪﺙ ﺭﻗﻢ ‪.1‬‬
‫• ﺍﻟﺨﻼﻳﺎ ‪ D9:G9‬ﺳﺘﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﺨﻼﻳﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻳﺨﺮﺝ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﻗﻴﻢ ﻭ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﻜﺮ ﻟﻜﻞ‬
‫ﺣﺪﺙ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﺳﻴﻜﻮﻥ ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮﺏ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺒﺮﺍﻣﺞ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺻﻞ ﺇﻟﻴﻪ ﻭﺳﻴﻜﻮﻥ ﺷﻜﻞ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﺍﻛﺴﻞ )‪ (EXCEL‬ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬

‫• ﺑﻌﺪ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻧﺪﺧﻞ ﺷﺒﻜﺔ ﺑﻴﺮﺕ ) ‪ (PERT‬ﻭ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﻴﻦ ﺍﻷﺣﺪﺍﺙ ﻭ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻛﺴﻞ ) ‪ (EXCEL‬ﺑﻮﺿﻊ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻮﺩ ‪ B‬ﻭ ﺍﻷﺣﺪﺍﺙ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺼﻒ ‪ 15‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﺒﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻤﺜﺎﻝ‪.‬‬
‫• ﺣﻴﺚ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺗﻤﺜﻞ ﻓﻲ ﺷﺒﻜﺔ ﺑﻴﺮﺕ ) ‪ (PERT‬ﺑﻤﻨﺤﻨﻰ ﺃﻭ ﺧﻂ ﻳﺼﻞ ﺑﻴﻦ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺤﺪﺙ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺤﺪﺙ ﺍﻟﻼﺣﻖ ﻓﺎﻧﻪ ﻫﻨﺎ ﺳﺘﻮﺿﻊ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﻮﻑ‬
‫ﺑﺤﻴﺚ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻧﺸﺎﻁ ﺻﻒ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ‪.‬‬

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 ‫ﻋﻠﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺳﺏ‬

‫• ﻛﻞ ﻧﺸﺎﻁ ﺳﻴﻮﺿﻊ ﺇﻣﺎﻣﻪ ﺍﻟﺮﻗﻢ )‪ (1 -‬ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻞ ﺍﻟﺤﺪﺙ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺒﺪﺃ ﺑﻪ ﻭ ﻳﻮﺿﻊ ﺃﻣﺎﻣﻪ‬
‫)‪ (1‬ﺃﻣﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺤﺪﺙ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻨﺘﻬﻲ ﻓﻴﻪ ﻭﻣﺎ ﻋﺪﻯ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻧﻀﻊ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ) ‪ (0‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬

‫• ﺑﻌﺪ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻧﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻤﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ) ‪ (te‬ﻟﻜﻞ ﻧﺸﺎﻁ ﺃﻣﺎﻣﻪ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻮﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺳﺒﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻤﺜﺎﻝ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻮﺩ ‪ . L‬ﻭﺕﻛﻮﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺨﻼﻳﺎ )‪. (L16:L25‬‬
‫• ﻭﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻮﺩ ‪ J‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﺒﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻤﺜﺎﻝ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻧﻀﻊ ﺍﻟﺨﻼﻳﺎ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻮﻗﺖ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺄﺧﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﻤﻮﺡ ﺑﻪ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻧﺸﺎﻁ ﺃﻱ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺨﻼﻳﺎ ) ‪ .(J16:J25‬ﻭﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺣﺴﺐ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪ sumproduct($c$9:$I$9,c16:I16) :‬ﻟﺤﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺄﺧﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﻤﻮﺡ ﺑﻪ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻧﺸﺎﻁ‪ .‬ﻣﻊ ﻣﻼﺣﻈﺔ ﺃﻥ ﺭﻣﺰ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻻﺭ ) ‪ ($‬ﻭﺿﻊ ﺑﻴﻦ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺷﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺼﻒ ﺭﻗﻢ ‪ 9‬ﻟﺘﺜﺒﻴﺖ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺨﻼﻳﺎ ﻭﻋﺪﻡ ﺗﺤﺮﻙ ﺍﻹﺷﺎﺭﺓ ﺇﻟﻴﻬﺎ ﻋﻨﺪ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺒﺌﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺒﺌﺔ ﺳﻨﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﻧﺴﺦ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﻟﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺨﻼﻳﺎ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ‪ .‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻧﺒﺪﺃ‬
‫ﺑﺎﻟﺨﻠﻴﺔ ﺭﻗﻢ ‪ J16‬ﺛﻢ ﻧﺴﺤﺐ ﺍﻟﺨﻠﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺰﺍﻭﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻔﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻴﺴﺮﻯ ﻣﻊ ﺍﺳﺘﻤﺮﺍﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻀﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻭﺱ ﺣﺘﻰ ﻧﺼﻞ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﺧﺮ ﺧﻠﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫• ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻮﺩ ‪ M‬ﻧﻀﻊ ﺍﻟﻔﻮﺍﺋﺾ ﻭﻫﻲ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﻋﻦ ﻧﺎﺗﺞ ﻁﺮﺡ ﻗﻴﻢ ‪J16-L16‬‬
‫ﻭﻫﻜﺬﺍ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﺍﻷﺧﺮ ﻓﻲ ﻧﻔﺲ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻮﺩ‪.‬‬

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‫ﻋﻠﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺳﺏ‬

‫• ﻭﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻮﺩ ﺭﻗﻢ ‪ K‬ﻧﻘﻮﻡ ﺑﺈﺩﺧﺎﻝ ﻋﻼﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﻛﺒﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻭ ﻳﺴﺎﻭﻱ ) =>( ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺄﺧﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﻤﻮﺡ ﺑﻪ ﺩﺍﺋﻤﺎ ﺍﻛﺒﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻭ ﻳﺴﺎﻭﻱ ﺍﻟﻤﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻧﺸﺎﻁ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭ ﻱﻛﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﺤﻞ ﻋﻨﺪ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺨﻄﻮﺓ ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬

‫ﺑﻌﺪ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻧﺤﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﺨﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻤﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻛﻜﻞ ﻭﻫﻲ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺒﻜﺮ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺄﺧﺮ ﻟﻠﺤﺪﺙ ﺍﻷﺧﻴﺮ ﻭﻧﻀﻌﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺨﻠﻴﺔ ﻣﺜﻼ ‪ H11‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﻧﻔﺴﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺨﻠﻴﺔ ‪ .I9‬ﻭﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﻧﻀﻊ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺨﻠﻴﺔ ‪ H11‬ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ )‪.(I9‬‬
‫ﺍﻻﻧﺘﻘﺎﻝ ﺇﻟﻰ ‪ Solver‬ﻓﻲ ﻗﺎﺋﻤﺔ ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ ‪ Tools‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺩﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻄﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺧﺎﻧﺔ ﺍﻟﺨﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻬﺪﻑ ‪ set target cell‬ﺿﻊ ‪H11‬‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺧﺎﻧﺔ ‪ equal to‬ﻧﻀﻊ ‪ min‬ﺃﻱ ﺍﻗﻞ ﻣﺪﺓ ﻣﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺧﺎﻧﺔ ﺍﻟﺨﻼﻳﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﻫﺎ ‪ by changing‬ﻧﻀﻊ ‪D9:I9‬‬
‫ﻭﻓﻲ ﺧﺎﻧﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻮﺩ ‪ subject to‬ﻧﻀﻊ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺪ ‪ D9:I9>=0‬ﻭﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺪ‬
‫‪J16:J25>=L16:L25‬‬
‫ﻭﻓﻲ ﺧﺎﻧﺔ ﺍﻟﺨﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ‪ Options‬ﻧﻀﻊ ﺍﻓﺘﺮﺍﺽ ﻧﻤﻮﺫﺝ ﺧﻄﻲ ‪Assume Linear‬‬
‫‪ Model‬ﻭﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺷﻜﻞ ﻧﺎﻓﺬﺓ ‪ Solver‬ﻛﺎﻵﺗﻲ‪:‬‬

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 ‫ﻋﻠﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺳﺏ‬

‫ﺛﻢ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﻘﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺣﻞ ‪ Solve‬ﺛﻢ ﻣﻮﺍﻓﻖ ‪ Ok‬ﻧﺼﻞ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺤﻞ ﻭﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﻳﻈﻬﺮ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﻭﻗﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺄﺧﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﻤﻮﺡ ﺑﻬﺎ ﻟﻜﻞ ﺣﺪﺙ ﻫﻲ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ‪:‬‬
‫(‪TL(1)=0,TL(2)=20,TL(3)=14,TL(4)=30,TL(5)=48,TL(6)=42,TL‬‬
‫‪7)=66‬‬

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‫ﻋﻠﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺳﺏ‬

‫ﺣﻞ ﻣﺸﺎﻛﻞ ‪ Pert‬ﻭ ‪ CPM‬ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ‪QSB‬‬

‫ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺣﻞ ﻣﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺷﺮﻛﺔ ﺳﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ‪ QSB‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ‪:‬‬

‫ﺃﻭﻻ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺎﺋﻤﺔ ﺍﺑﺪﺃ ) ‪ (Start‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﺍﻓﺬ ﻧﺬﻫﺐ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺒﺮﺍﻣﺞ ) ‪ (programs‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ‪ SQB‬ﻭﺑﻌﺪ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺗﺨﺮﺝ ﻟﻨﺎ ﻗﺎﺋﻤﺔ ﻁﻮﻳﻠﺔ ﺑﺘﻄﺒﻴﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﻭﻧﺨﺘﺎﺭ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ‬
‫)‪ (Pert/cpm‬ﺛﻢ ﺗﺨﺮﺝ ﻟﻨﺎ ﻧﺎﻓﺬﺓ ﺍﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬

‫"ﻣﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺟﺪﻳﺪﺓ" ﻭﻳﺘﻢ ﻛﺘﺎﺑﺔ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﻌﺪ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻳﻘﻮﻧﺔ‬
‫ﻛﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬

‫ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻢ ﺑﺄﻥ ‪ Number of activities‬ﻫﻲ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﻭ ﻥ ﻭﻋﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ‬

‫)‪ (Problem type‬ﻫﻲ ﻣﺤﺪﺩﺓ )‪ (Deterministic‬ﻭ ﺣﻘﻞ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ )‪(Data Field‬‬
‫ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ ) ‪ (Normal Time‬ﺑﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﻭﺿﻌﻨﺎ ﺍﻟﻬﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻧﺪﺧﻞ ﺑﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬
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 ‫ﻋﻠﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺳﺏ‬

‫)‪ (Data Entry Format‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺷﻜﻞ ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ) ‪ .(Spreadsheet‬ﻭﺑﻌﺪ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺗﺨﺮﺝ ﻟﻨﺎ‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬﺓ ﺇﺩﺧﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻫﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬

‫‪ (Activity Number‬ﻭ ﺍﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﻫﻮ‬ ‫ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻢ ﺃﻳﻀﺎ ﺑﺎﻥ ﺭﻗﻢ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﻫﻮ )‬
‫)‪ (Activity name‬ﻭ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﻫﻲ ) ‪(Immediate Predecessor‬‬
‫ﻭ ﻳﺘﻢ ﻭﺿﻊ ﻓﻮﺍﺻﻞ ﺑﻴﻨﻬﻤﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ‪ .‬ﻭﺑﻌﺪ ﺍﻻﻧﺘﻬﺎء‬
‫ﻣﻦ ﺇﺩﺧﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺑﺎﻟﻜﺎﻣﻞ ﻧﻘﻮﻡ ﺑﺤﻞ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺎﺋﻤﺔ )‪.(Solve and Analyze‬‬
‫ﻭ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺗﺨﺮﺝ ﻟﻨﺎ ﻧﺎﻓﺬﺓ ﺍﻟﺤﻞ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺤﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪:‬‬

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‫ﻋﻠﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺳﺏ‬

‫‪ (CPM‬ﻫﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﻧﻼﺣﻆ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺤﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻘﻊ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺤﺮﺝ )‬
‫ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ) ‪ (c,d,g‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻈﻬﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻮﺩ ) ‪ (On Critical Path‬ﻭ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﻭﻗﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺒﻜﺮﺓ ﻟﻸﻧﺸﻄﺔ ) ‪ (TE‬ﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺟﻮﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻮﺩ ) ‪ (Earliest Start‬ﻭ ﻛﺬﻟﻚ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﻻﻧﺘﻬﺎء ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ )‪ (Project Completion Time‬ﻭ ﻫﻲ ﻧﻔﺴﻬﺎ ﻧﻔﺲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺤﺼﻠﻨﺎ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻁﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺑﻴﺮﺕ )‪. (PERT‬‬
‫ﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺍﻻﻁﻼﻉ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﻟﺤﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺧﺎﺭﻁﺔ ﺑﻴﺮﺕ )‪ (PERT‬ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪:‬‬

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 ‫ﻋﻠﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺳﺏ‬

‫ﻭﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺍﻻﻁﻼﻉ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺹ ﺑﺎﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﻜﺮ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺄﺧﺮ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻧﺸﺎﻁ‬
‫ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬

‫ﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﻬﻤﺔ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﻣﺜﻞ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﻣﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺑﻴﺮﺕ ) ‪ (PERT‬ﻭ ﺭﺳﻢ ﺷﺒﻜﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﻟﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ‬
‫ﺑﻴﺮﺕ ) ‪ (PERT‬ﻭ ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ ) ‪ (Probabilities‬ﻭ ﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎﺓ‬
‫)‪.(Simulation‬‬

‫‪- 210 -‬‬

‫ﻋﻠﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺳﺏ‬

‫ﺣﻠﻮﻝ ﺃﺳﺌﻠﺔ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﺮﺍﻣﺞ ﻭﻣﺮﺍﺟﻌﺘﻬﺎ ﻭﻁﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺤﺮﺝ‬

‫)‪(CPM‬‬
‫‪.1‬‬

‫‪.2‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺤﺮﺝ ﻫﻮ ‪G ، D ، A‬‬

‫‪- 211 -‬‬

 ‫ﻋﻠﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺳﺏ‬

‫‪.3‬‬
‫ﺃ‪ -‬ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻨﺘﻬﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻓﻲ ﺧﻼﻝ ‪ 14‬ﻳﻮﻣﺎ ) ‪ 14‬ﻳﻮﻡ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻗﻞ(؟‬

‫‪x- µ‬‬ ‫‪14-12.5‬‬ ‫‪1.5‬‬

‫=‪Z‬‬ ‫=‬ ‫=‬ ‫=‬ ‫‪1.07‬‬ ‫ﻭﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺠﺪﻭﻝ‬ ‫=‬ ‫‪0.3577‬‬
‫‪σ‬‬ ‫‪√1.96‬‬ ‫‪1.4‬‬
‫‪P(x ≤ 14) =0.5+0.3577 =0.8577‬‬

‫ﺏ ‪ -‬ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻨﺘﻬﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻓﻲ ﺧﻼﻝ ‪ 10‬ﺃﻳﺎﻡ ) ‪ 10‬ﺃﻳﺎﻡ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻗﻞ( ؟‬

‫‪x- µ‬‬ ‫‪10-12.5‬‬ ‫‪2.5‬‬

‫=‪Z‬‬ ‫=‬ ‫=‬ ‫=‬ ‫‪-1.79‬‬ ‫ﻭﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺠﺪﻭﻝ‬ ‫=‬ ‫‪0.4833‬‬
‫‪σ‬‬ ‫‪√1.96‬‬ ‫‪1.4‬‬
‫‪P(x ≤ 10) =0.5-0.4833=0.017‬‬

‫ﺝ ‪ -‬ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻨﺘﻬﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ‪ D‬ﻓﻲ ﻣﺪﺓ ﺗﺘﺮﺍﻭﺡ ﺑﻴﻦ ‪ 5‬ﺇﻟﻰ ‪ 10‬ﺃﻳﺎﻡ؟‬

‫‪X1- µ‬‬ ‫‪5 - 7.5‬‬ ‫‪-2.5‬‬ ‫ﻭﻣﻦ‬

‫=‪Z1‬‬ ‫=‬ ‫=‬ ‫=‬ ‫‪-2.80‬‬ ‫=‬ ‫‪0.4974‬‬
‫‪σ‬‬ ‫‪√0.8‬‬ ‫‪0.894‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺪﻭﻝ‬

‫‪- µ 2X‬‬ ‫‪- 7.510‬‬ ‫‪2.5‬‬

‫=‪Z2‬‬ ‫=‬ ‫=‬ ‫=‬ ‫‪2.80‬‬ ‫ﻭﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺠﺪﻭﻝ‬ ‫=‬ ‫‪0.4974‬‬
‫‪σ‬‬ ‫‪√0.8‬‬ ‫‪0.894‬‬
‫‪P(5 ≤x ≤ 1)= 0.4974 +0.4974 = 0.99‬‬

‫‪- 212 -‬‬

‫ﻋﻠﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺳﺏ‬

‫ﺩ ‪ -‬ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻨﺘﻬﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ‪ D‬ﻓﻲ ﺧﻼﻝ ‪ 10‬ﺃﻳﺎﻡ؟‬

‫ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﻫﻮ ‪:‬‬
‫‪X- µ‬‬ ‫‪10 - 7.5‬‬ ‫‪2.5‬‬ ‫ﻭﻣﻦ‬ ‫‪0.497‬‬
‫=‪Z‬‬ ‫=‬ ‫=‬ ‫‪= 2.80‬‬ ‫=‬
‫‪σ‬‬ ‫‪√0.8‬‬ ‫‪0.894‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺪﻭﻝ‬ ‫‪4‬‬
‫‪P(x ≤ 10) =0.5 + 0.4974=0.9974‬‬

‫‪.4‬‬
‫‪ - 1‬ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻨﺘﻬﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻓﻲ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﻻ ﺗﻘﻞ ﻋﻦ ‪ 46‬ﻳﻮﻡ؟‬
‫‪x-µ‬‬
‫=‪Z‬‬
‫‪σ‬‬
‫‪46-66‬‬
‫=‪Z‬‬ ‫‪= -.3.33‬‬
‫‪36‬‬

‫ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺠﺪﻭﻝ ‪p=0.499‬‬

‫‪ =0.5+0.499=0.999‬ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ‬

‫‪ - 2‬ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻨﺘﻬﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻓﻲ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﻻ ﺗﺰﻳﺪ ﻋﻦ ‪ 86‬ﻳﻮﻡ؟‬

‫‪x-µ‬‬
‫=‪Z‬‬
‫‪σ‬‬
‫‪86-66‬‬
‫=‪Z‬‬ ‫‪= +.3.33‬‬
‫‪36‬‬

‫ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺠﺪﻭﻝ ‪p=0.499‬‬

‫‪ =0.5+0.499=0.999‬ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ‬

‫‪- 213 -‬‬

 ‫ﻋﻠﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺳﺏ‬

‫‪ - 3‬ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺒﺪﺃ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ‪ G‬ﻓﻲ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﻻ ﺗﺰﻳﺪ ﻋﻦ ‪ 40‬ﻳﻮﻣﺎ؟‬

‫‪x-µ‬‬
‫=‪Z‬‬
‫‪σ‬‬
‫‪30-40‬‬
‫=‪Z‬‬ ‫‪= + 2.24‬‬
‫‪20‬‬
‫ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺠﺪﻭﻝ ‪p=0.487‬‬
‫‪ =0.5+0.487=0.987‬ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ‬

‫‪ - 4‬ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺒﺪﺃ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ‪ G‬ﻓﻲ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺗﺘﺮﺍﻭﺡ ﺑﻴﻦ ‪ 30‬ﺇﻟﻰ ‪ 50‬ﻳﻮﻣﺎ؟‬

‫‪x-µ‬‬
‫=‪Z‬‬
‫‪σ‬‬
‫‪30-50‬‬
‫=‪Z1‬‬ ‫‪= + 4.47‬‬
‫‪20‬‬

‫‪x-µ‬‬
‫=‪Z‬‬ ‫‪σ‬‬

‫‪30-30‬‬
‫=‪Z2‬‬ ‫‪=0‬‬
‫‪20‬‬

‫ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺠﺪﻭﻝ ‪p=0.499‬‬

‫‪ =0+0.499= 0.5‬ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ‬

‫‪- 214 -‬‬

‫ﻋﻠﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺳﺏ‬

‫‪.5‬‬

‫‪.6‬‬

‫‪.7‬‬

‫‪b) A,Dummy,E‬‬

‫‪- 215 -‬‬

 ‫ﻋﻠﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺳﺏ‬

‫‪.8‬‬
‫‪TL‬‬ ‫‪TE‬‬ ‫‪σ2‬‬ ‫‪te‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺸﺎﺋﻢ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻛﺜﺮ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻔﺎﺋﻞ‬
‫)‪(b‬‬ ‫)‪(m‬‬ ‫)‪(a‬‬
‫‪2.75‬‬ ‫‪2.75‬‬ ‫‪0.17‬‬ ‫‪2.75‬‬ ‫‪3.5‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪A‬‬
‫‪6.25‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.25‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3.5‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪B‬‬
‫‪11.75‬‬ ‫‪7.25‬‬ ‫‪0.69‬‬ ‫‪4.5‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪C‬‬
‫‪11.75‬‬ ‫‪7.5‬‬ ‫‪1.36‬‬ ‫‪5.5‬‬ ‫‪10‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪D‬‬
‫‪8.25‬‬ ‫‪8.25‬‬ ‫‪0.69‬‬ ‫‪5.5‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪E‬‬
‫‪11.75‬‬ ‫‪11.75‬‬ ‫‪0.027 3.5‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪3.5‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪F‬‬

‫ﺃ‪ -‬ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺤﺮﺝ ‪A,E,F‬‬

‫ﺏ ‪ .‬ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻨﺘﻬﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻓﻲ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺗﺘﺮﺍﻭﺡ ﺑﻴﻦ ‪ 10‬ﺇﻟﻰ ‪ 15‬ﺃﺳﺒﻮﻋﺎ؟‬

‫‪x- µ‬‬ ‫‪10-11.75‬‬ ‫‪1.75‬‬

‫=‪Z1‬‬ ‫=‬ ‫=‬ ‫=‬ ‫‪-1.86‬‬ ‫ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺠﺪﻭﻝ‬ ‫‪= 0.4686‬‬
‫‪σ‬‬ ‫‪√0.887‬‬ ‫‪0.942‬‬

‫‪x- µ‬‬ ‫‪15-11.75‬‬ ‫‪3.25‬‬

‫=‪Z2‬‬ ‫=‬ ‫=‬ ‫=‬ ‫‪3.45‬‬ ‫ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺠﺪﻭﻝ‬ ‫‪= 0.4999‬‬
‫‪σ‬‬ ‫‪√0.887‬‬ ‫‪0.942‬‬

‫‪- 216 -‬‬

‫ﻋﻠﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺳﺏ‬

‫‪P(10 ≤x ≤ 5)= 0.4686+0.4999 = 0.9686‬‬

‫ﺝ‪ -‬ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻨﺘﻬﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻓﻲ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﻻ ﺗﻘﻞ ﻋﻦ ‪ 14‬ﺃﺳﺒﻮﻉ ) ﺃﻱ ‪ 14‬ﺃﺳﺒﻮﻋﺎ ﺃﻭ‬

‫ﺃﻛﺜﺮ(؟‬

‫‪x- µ‬‬ ‫‪14-11.75‬‬ ‫‪2.25‬‬

‫=‪Z‬‬ ‫=‬ ‫=‬ ‫=‬ ‫‪2.38‬‬ ‫ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺠﺪﻭﻝ‬ ‫‪= 0.4916‬‬
‫‪σ‬‬ ‫‪√0.887‬‬ ‫‪0.942‬‬
‫‪P (14 ≤x) =0.5- 0.4916=0.0084‬‬
‫ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻨﺘﻬﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺧﻼﻝ ‪ 11‬ﻳﻮﻡ‬

‫‪0.5-0.288=0.22‬‬
‫ﺩ‪ -‬ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺒﺪﺃ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ‪ d‬ﻓﻲ ﻣﺪﺓ ﻻ ﺗﺰﻳﺪ ﻋﻦ ‪ 3‬ﺃﺳﺎﺑﻴﻊ؟‬
‫‪x- µ‬‬ ‫‪3-2‬‬
‫=‪Z‬‬ ‫=‬ ‫∞=‬ ‫‪=0.4999‬‬ ‫‪+0.5‬‬ ‫‪= 0.9999‬‬
‫‪σ‬‬ ‫‪0.125‬‬

‫‪- 217 -‬‬

 ‫ﻋﻠﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺳﺏ‬

(2) ‫ﻣﺮﻓﻖ ﺭﻗﻢ‬

‫ﻣﻔﺮﺩﺍﺕ ﻻﺗﻴﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﻣﻌﻨﺎﻫﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﻌﺮﺑﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﻔﺮﺩﺍﺕ ﻋﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﻭﻣﻌﻨﺎﻫﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﻼﺗﻴﻨﻲ‬

A ‫ﺍ‬
Activity ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ‬ Equipment Selection ‫ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻣﻌﺪﺍﺕ‬
Activity Completion
Times ‫ﺃﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺇﺗﻤﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ‬ Quantitative Methods ‫ﺍﻷﺳﺎﻟﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬
Arrival Process ‫ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺻﻮﻝ‬ Powers Or Exponentiation ‫ﺍﻷﺳﺲ‬
Arrival Rate ‫ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻮﺻﻮﻝ‬ Jobs ‫ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎﻝ‬
Arrivals ‫ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ‬ Predecessor Activities ‫ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ‬
Artificial Intelligence ‫ﺍﻟﺬﻛﺎء ﺍﻻﺻﻄﻨﺎﻋﻲ‬ Dummy Activities ‫ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﻫﻤﻴﺔ‬
Artificial Variables ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﺹﻁﻧﺎﻋﻴﺔ‬ Systems ‫ﺍﻷﻧﻈﻤﺔ‬
Assignment Problem ‫ﻣﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﺼﻴﺺ‬ Stochastic ‫ﺍﻷﻧﻈﻤﺔ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬
FMS Flexible Manufacturing
B Systems ‫ﺍﻷﻧﻈﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﻧﺔ‬
Branch – And – Bound
Methods ‫ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻁﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺮﻉ‬ Interarrival Times ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺻﻠﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻮﺻﻮﻝ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ‬
C First Come First Served ‫ ﺃﻭ‬FCFS ‫ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ‬
CAD‫ ﺍﻭ‬Computer Aided
Design ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴﻢ ﺑﻤﺴﺎﻋﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﺳﺐ‬ Totals ‫ﺍﻹﺟﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬
Capacity Of Queue ‫ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻟﺼﻒ‬ Parametric Programming ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺮﻣﺠﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺮﺍﻣﺘﺮﻳﺔ‬
Central Limit Theory ‫ﻧﻈﺮﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺰﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﻛﺰﻳﺔ‬ Dynamic Programming ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺮﻣﺠﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎﻣﻴﻜﻴﺔ‬
Chain ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ‬ Mathematical Programming ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺮﻣﺠﺔ ﺍﻟﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺔ‬
Clock Time ‫ﺳﺎﻋﺔ ﺗﻮﻗﻴﺖ‬ Nonlinear Programming ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺮﻣﺠﺔ ﻏﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﺨﻄﻴﺔ‬
Computer –Aided
Manufacturing ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺼﻨﻴﻊ ﺑﻤﺴﺎﻋﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﺳﺐ‬ Quadratic Programming ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺮﻣﺠﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻴﺔ‬
Constant ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺑﺖ‬ Linear Programming ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺮﻣﺠﺔ ﺍﻟﺨﻄﻴﺔ‬
Constraints ‫ﺻﻴﺎﻏﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻮﺩ‬ Robots Control ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻜﻢ ﺍﻵﻟﻲ‬
Continues System ‫ﻧﻈﺎﻡ ﻣﺘﺼﻞ‬ Degeneracy ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻞ‬
Critical Path ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺤﺮﺝ‬ Quantitative Analysis ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻲ‬
Critical Path Method
CPM ‫ﻁﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺤﺮﺝ‬ Duality ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻄﺎﺑﻘﻴﺔ ﺃﻭﺍﻟﺜﻨﺎﺋﻴﺔ‬
Cumulative Normal ‫ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍ ﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻴﻊﻱ ﺍ‬
Distribution Standard ‫ﻟﻤﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﻱ ﺍ ﻟﺘﺠﻤﻴﻌﻲ‬ Differentiation ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺎﺿﻞ‬

D User Interface ‫ﻭﺍﺟﻬﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ‬

Decision Science ‫ﻋﻠﻢ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ‬ Most Likely Estimate ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻷﻛﺜﺮ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻ‬
Decision Support
Systems(DSS) ‫ﻧﻈﻢ ﺩﻋﻢ ﺍﺗﺨﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ‬ Pessimistic Estimate ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺸﺎﺋﻢ‬
Declarative Rule ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺍﻧﻴﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻨﺔ‬ Optimistic Estimate ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻔﺎﺋﻞ‬
Degeneracy ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻞ‬ Integration ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻣﻞ‬
Demands ‫ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ‬ Exponential Distribution ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻵﺳﻲ‬
Intelligent Scheduling And ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺬﻛﻲ ﻭﻧﻈﺎﻡ‬
Destinations ‫ﻣﺮﺍﻛﺰ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ‬ Information System ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ‬
Determinates ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺪﺩﺍﺕ‬ Skewed Distribution ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺤﺮﻑ‬
Deterministic ‫ﻣﺤﺪﺩﺓ‬ Constant ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺑﺖ‬
Differentiation ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺎﺿﻞ‬ Feasible Solution ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻠﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻜﻨﺔ‬
Dijkstra’s Algorithm ‫ﺧﻮﺍﺭﺯﻣﻴﺔ ﺩﺟﻜﺴﺘﺮﺍ‬ Programming Languages ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺹ ﺑﺎﻟﺒﺮﻣﺠﺔ‬

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‫ﻋﻠﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺳﺏ‬

‫ﺳﺮﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﻄﻠﺤﺎﺕ‬

‫ﻣﻔﺮﺩﺍﺕ ﻻﺗﻴﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﻣﻌﻨﺎﻫﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﻌﺮﺑﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﻔﺮﺩﺍﺕ ﻋﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﻭﻣﻌﻨﺎﻫﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﻼﺗﻴﻨﻲ‬

A ‫ﺍ‬
Activity ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ‬ Equipment Selection ‫ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻣﻌﺪﺍﺕ‬
Activity Completion
Times ‫ﺃﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺇﺗﻤﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ‬ Quantitative Methods ‫ﺍﻷﺳﺎﻟﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬
Arrival Process ‫ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺻﻮﻝ‬ Powers Or Exponentiation ‫ﺍﻷﺳﺲ‬
Arrival Rate ‫ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻮﺻﻮﻝ‬ Jobs ‫ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎﻝ‬
Arrivals ‫ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ‬ Predecessor Activities ‫ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ‬
Artificial Intelligence ‫ﺍﻟﺬﻛﺎء ﺍﻻﺻﻄﻨﺎﻋﻲ‬ Dummy Activities ‫ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﻫﻤﻴﺔ‬
Artificial Variables ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﺹﻁﻧﺎﻋﻴﺔ‬ Systems ‫ﺍﻷﻧﻈﻤﺔ‬
Assignment Problem ‫ﻣﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﺼﻴﺺ‬ Stochastic ‫ﺍﻷﻧﻈﻤﺔ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬
FMS Flexible Manufacturing
B Systems ‫ﺍﻷﻧﻈﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﻧﺔ‬
Branch – And – Bound
Methods ‫ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻁﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺮﻉ‬ Interarrival Times ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺻﻠﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻮﺻﻮﻝ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ‬
C First Come First Served ‫ ﺃﻭ‬FCFS ‫ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ‬
CAD‫ ﺍﻭ‬Computer Aided
Design ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴﻢ ﺑﻤﺴﺎﻋﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﺳﺐ‬ Totals ‫ﺍﻹﺟﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬
Capacity Of Queue ‫ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻟﺼﻒ‬ Parametric Programming ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺮﻣﺠﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺮﺍﻣﺘﺮﻳﺔ‬
Central Limit Theory ‫ﻧﻈﺮﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺰﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﻛﺰﻳﺔ‬ Dynamic Programming ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺮﻣﺠﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎﻣﻴﻜﻴﺔ‬
Chain ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ‬ Mathematical Programming ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺮﻣﺠﺔ ﺍﻟﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺔ‬
Clock Time ‫ﺳﺎﻋﺔ ﺗﻮﻗﻴﺖ‬ Nonlinear Programming ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺮﻣﺠﺔ ﻏﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﺨﻄﻴﺔ‬
Computer –Aided
Manufacturing ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺼﻨﻴﻊ ﺑﻤﺴﺎﻋﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﺳﺐ‬ Quadratic Programming ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺮﻣﺠﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻴﺔ‬
Constant ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺑﺖ‬ Linear Programming ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺮﻣﺠﺔ ﺍﻟﺨﻄﻴﺔ‬
Constraints ‫ﺻﻴﺎﻏﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻮﺩ‬ Robots Control ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻜﻢ ﺍﻵﻟﻲ‬
Continues System ‫ﻧﻈﺎﻡ ﻣﺘﺼﻞ‬ Degeneracy ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻞ‬
Critical Path ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺤﺮﺝ‬ Quantitative Analysis ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻲ‬
Critical Path Method
CPM ‫ﻁﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺤﺮﺝ‬ Duality ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻄﺎﺑﻘﻴﺔ ﺃﻭﺍﻟﺜﻨﺎﺋﻴﺔ‬
Cumulative Normal ‫ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍ ﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻴﻊﻱ ﺍ‬
Distribution Standard ‫ﻟﻤﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﻱ ﺍ ﻟﺘﺠﻤﻴﻌﻲ‬ Differentiation ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺎﺿﻞ‬

D User Interface ‫ﻭﺍﺟﻬﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ‬

Decision Science ‫ﻋﻠﻢ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ‬ Most Likely Estimate ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻷﻛﺜﺮ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻ‬
Decision Support
Systems(DSS) ‫ﻧﻈﻢ ﺩﻋﻢ ﺍﺗﺨﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ‬ Pessimistic Estimate ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺸﺎﺋﻢ‬
Declarative Rule ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺍﻧﻴﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻨﺔ‬ Optimistic Estimate ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻔﺎﺋﻞ‬
Degeneracy ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻞ‬ Integration ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻣﻞ‬
Demands ‫ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ‬ Exponential Distribution ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻵﺳﻲ‬
Intelligent Scheduling And ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺬﻛﻲ ﻭﻧﻈﺎﻡ‬
Destinations ‫ﻣﺮﺍﻛﺰ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ‬ Information System ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ‬
Determinates ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺪﺩﺍﺕ‬ Skewed Distribution ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺤﺮﻑ‬
Deterministic ‫ﻣﺤﺪﺩﺓ‬ Constant ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺑﺖ‬
Differentiation ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺎﺿﻞ‬ Feasible Solution ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻠﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻜﻨﺔ‬
Dijkstra’s Algorithm ‫ﺧﻮﺍﺭﺯﻣﻴﺔ ﺩﺟﻜﺴﺘﺮﺍ‬ Programming Languages ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺹ ﺑﺎﻟﺒﺮﻣﺠﺔ‬

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Discrete Event
Simulation
Discrete System
Dual Problem
Duality
Dummy Activities
Dummy Points
Dummy Supply Point
Duration
Dynamic Programming
Dynamic Simulation
Model
E Slack Variables
Earliest Expected
Completion Time TE ‫ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﻜﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﻟﻼﻧﺘﻬﺎء‬
Equipment Selection
Event Occurrence Times
Exchange Coefficient
Exchange Ratio
Expected Duration
Expected Time Of
Completion
Expert Systems
Exponential Distribution
F Dual Problem
Facility Planning
Feasible Solution
First Come First Served ‫ﺃﻭ‬
FCFS
Flexibility
Flexible Manufacturing
System
Fms Flexible
Manufacturing Systems
Formulation
G Latest Allowable Time
Gauss Jordan
Gemory Methods
Goal Programming
Graphical Solution
Methods
Group Technology GT
H Reasoning
Hardware
Hungarian Method
I Ctivity Completion Times
Idle
Improvement Row
Infeasible
Inference Engine
Infinite
Initial Simplex Tableau
Integer Programming
Integration
Intelligent Scheduling
And Information System
Interarrival Rate
Interarrival Times
Inventory Models
J Network Analysis
Jobs
Just-I N-Time
K Computer –Aided
Kan Ban System
‫ﻧﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻘﻄﻌﺔ‬ Chain ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ‬
‫ﻧﻈﺎﻡ ﻣﺘﻘﻄﻊ‬ Just-I N-Time ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻨﻊ ﻓﻲ ﻭﻗﺘﻪ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺍﻓﻘﺔ‬ Demands ‫ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻄﺎﺑﻘﻴﺔ ﺃﻭﺍﻟﺜﻨﺎﺋﻴﺔ‬ Supplies ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺽ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﻫﻤﻴﺔ‬ Declarative Rule ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺍﻧﻴﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻨﺔ‬
‫ﻧﻘﺎﻁ ﻭﻫﻤﻴﺔ‬ Shipping Allocation ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻘﻮﻟﺔ‬
‫ﻋﺮﺽ ﻭﻫﻤﻲ‬ Logarithm ‫ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻏﺎﺭﻳﺘﻤﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺪﺓ‬ Variable Mix ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺤﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﺮﻣﺠﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎﻣﻴﻜﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺰﺍﺋﺪﺓﻭﺍﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺳﺏ‬
Surplus Variables
‫ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺮﺍﺕ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻡ‬
‫ﻧﻤﻮﺫﺝ ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎﺓ ﺩﻳﻨﺎﻣﻴﻜﻲ‬ Artificial Variables ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﻀﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﻏﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﺔ ﻓﻲ‬
Nonmix Variables ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻞ‬
‫ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺩﻭﺍﺕ‬ Simulation ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎﺓ‬
‫ﺃﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﻭﻗﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﺤﺪﺙ‬ Determinates ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺪﺩﺍﺕ‬
‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﻴﺮ‬ Duration ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺪﺓ‬
‫ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﻴﺮ‬ Expected Duration ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ‬ Critical Path (CPM) ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺤﺮﺝ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﻟﻼﻧﺘﻬﺎء‬ Paths ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻕ‬
‫ﺃﻧﻈﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺨﺒﺮﺍء‬ Zero-One-Problems ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺎﻛﻞ ﺫﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺘﻴﻦ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻵﺳﻲ‬ Unbound Feasible Solutions ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺎﻛﻞ ﻏﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﻴﺪﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺍﻓﻘﺔ‬
‫ﺗﺨﻄﻴﻂ ﺍﻟﺨﺪﻣﺎﺕ‬ Sources ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺎﺩﺭ‬
‫ﻣﺠﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺤﻞ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻜﻦ‬ Matrixes ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﻔﻮﻓﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻮﺻﻮﻝ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ‬ Activity ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ‬
‫ﺗﻘﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﻭﻧﺔ‬ Limits ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﻳﺎﺕ‬
Earliest Expected ‫ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﻜﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻊ‬
‫ﻧﻈﻢ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﻧﺔ‬ Completion Time TE ‫ﻟﻼﻧﺘﻬﺎء‬
‫ﺍﻷﻧﻈﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﻧﺔ‬ Earliest Expected Time ‫ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﻜﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻊ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺄﺧﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﻤﻮﺡ‬
‫ﺻﻴﺎﻏﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺭﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎ‬ Latest Allowable Tl ‫ﺑﻪ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺄﺧﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﻤﻮﺡ‬
‫ﺑﻪ‬
Expected Time Of
‫ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﻗﺲ ﺟﻮﺭﺩﻥ‬ Completion ‫ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻌﻠﻼﻧﺘﻬﺎء‬
‫ﻁﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﻗﻮﻣﺮﻱ‬ Optimized Production ‫ﺃﻣﺜﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ‬
‫ﺑﺮﻣﺠﺔ ﺍﻟﻬﺪﻑ‬ Hardware ‫ﺃﺟﺰﺍء ﺍﻟﺤﺎﺳﺐ ﺍﻵﻟﻲ‬
‫ﻁﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﻞ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﻲ‬ Shadow Prices ‫ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻈﻞ‬
Program Evaluation And ‫ﺃﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﺮﺍﻣﺞ‬
‫ﺗﻘﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻤﻮﻋﺎﺕ‬ Review Technique PERT ‫ﻭﻣﺮﺍﺟﻌﺘﻬﺎ‬
‫ﺃﻧﻈﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ‬
‫ﺃﺟﺰﺍء ﺍﻟﺤﺎﺳﺐ ﺍﻵﻟﻲ‬ Natural Language Systems ‫ﺃﻧﻈﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻠﻐﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻁﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﻫﺎﻧﻐﺎﺭﻳﺎﻥ‬ Expert Systems ‫ﺃﻧﻈﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺨﺒﺮﺍء‬
‫ﺃﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺇﺗﻤﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ‬
‫ﻓﺎﺭﻍ‬ Event Occurrence Times ‫ﺃﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﻭﻗﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﺤﺪﺙ‬
‫ﻛﺴﺐ ﺍﻟﻮﺣﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺣﺪﺓ‬ Slacks ‫ﺇﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﻮﺍﺋﺾ‬
‫ﻏﻴﺮ ﻣﻤﻜﻦ‬ ‫ﺏ‬
Branch – And – Bond
‫ﻣﺎﻛﻴﻨﺔ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺪﻻﻝ‬ Methods ‫ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻁﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺮﻉ‬
Decision Support Systems ‫ﺃﻭ‬
‫ﻻﻧﻬﺎﺋﻲ‬ DSS ‫ﺑﺄﻧﻈﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﻋﺪﺓ‬
‫ﺑﺮﻣﺠﺔ ﺍﻷﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﺼﺤﻴﺤﺔ‬
‫ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍ ﻟﺴﻤﺒﻠﻜﺲ ﺍﻻﺑﺘﺪﺍﺋﻲ‬ Integer Programming ‫ﺃﻭﻏﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﻜﺴﺮﻳﺔ‬
‫ﺑﺮﻣﺠﺔ ﺍﻷﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﺼﺤﻴﺤﺔ‬
‫ﺃﻭﻏﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﻜﺴﺮﻳﺔ‬ Goal Programming ‫ﺑﺮﻣﺠﺔ ﺍﻟﻬﺪﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻣﻞ‬ Malti Objectives ‫ﺑﺮﻣﺠﺔ ﻣﺘﻌﺪﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﻫﺪﺍﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺬﻛﻲ ﻭﻧﻈﺎﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﺃﻭﻟﻲ‬
- 220Primal
-
‫ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻮﺻﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺻﻞ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺃﻭ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﻷﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺻﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺻﻠﺔ‬ Most Attractive Corner ‫ﺗﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﺃﻋﻈﻢ ﺯﺍﻭﻳﺔ ﺟﺬﺍﺑﺔ‬
‫ﻧﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺰﻭﻥ‬ Sensitivity Analysis ‫ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺤﺴﺎﺳﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺸﺒﻜﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎﻝ‬ Facility Planning ‫ﺗﺨﻄﻴﻂ ﺍﻟﺨﺪﻣﺎﺕ‬
‫ ﺇﺣﻀﺎﺭ‬،‫ﻁﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﻻ ﻣﺨﺰﻭﻥ‬ CAD‫ ﺍﻭ‬Computer Aided ‫ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻜﻤﺒﻴﻮﺗﺮ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺍﺩ ﺃﺛﻨﺎء ﺍﻟﺼﻨﻊ ﻓﻘﻂ‬ Design ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺼﻤﻴﻢ‬
‫ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻜﻤﺒﻴﻮﺗﺮ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴﻘﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﺑﻮﺍﺳﻄﺔ‬
Manufacturing ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻤﺒﻴﻮﺗﺮ‬
‫ﻧﻈﺎﻡ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺑﺎﻥ‬ Maximization ‫ﺗﻌﻈﻴﻢ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺳﺏ‬

‫‪- 221 -‬‬

 ‫ﻋﻠﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺳﺏ‬

Logarithm ‫ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻏﺎﺭﻳﺘﻤﺎﺕ‬ Plant Scheduling ‫ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﺟﻬﺰﺓ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻝ‬

M Memoryless
Distribution ‫ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺫﻭ ﺧﺎﺻﻴﺔ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺬﻛﺮ‬

Malti Objectives ‫ﺑﺮﻣﺠﺔ ﻣﺘﻌﺪﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﻫﺪﺍﻑ‬ ‫ﺝ‬

Management Science ‫ﻋﻠﻢ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ‬ Transportation Tableau ‫ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ‬
Mathematical Cumulative Standard ‫ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ ﺍ ﻟﻤﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﺍ‬
Programming ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺮﻣﺠﺔ ﺍﻟﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺔ‬ Normal Distribution ‫ﻟﺘﺠﻤﻴﻌﻲ‬
Initial Simplex
Matrixes ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﻔﻮﻓﺎﺕ‬ Tableau ‫ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍ ﻟﺴﻤﺒﻠﻜﺲ ﺍ ﻻﺑﺘﺪﺍﺋﻲ‬
Maximization ‫ﺗﻌﻈﻴﻢ‬ Schedule Times ‫ﺟﺪﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﻗﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺫﻭ ﺧﺎﺻﻴﺔ ﻋﺪﻡ‬
Memoryless Distribution ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺬﻛﺮ‬ Quailty ‫ﺟﻮﺩﺓ‬
Minimization ‫ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﺗﺼﻐﻴﺮﻳﺔ‬ State ‫ﺣﺎﻟﺔ‬
Minimum Cost Technique ‫ﻁﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺃﻗﻞ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ‬ Capacity Of Queue ‫ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻟﺼﻒ‬
MIS Management Multiple Optimal
Information System ‫ﻧﻈﻢ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ‬ Solutions ‫ﺣﻠﻮﻝ ﻣﺘﻌﺪﺩﺓ ﻣﺜﻠﻰ‬
Mixed Integer
Programming Problem
‫ﻣﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺮﻣﺠﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﺤﻴﺤﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻄﺔ‬ ‫ﺥ‬
Modi Modified Transportation
Distribution Methods ‫ﻁﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺪﻟﺔ‬ Algorithm ‫ﺧﻄﻮﺍﺕ ﻁﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ‬
Monte Carlo Simulation ‫ﻧﻤﻮﺫﺝ ﻣﻮﻧﺘﻲ ﻛﺎﺭﻟﻮ‬ Dijkstra’s Algorithm ‫ﺧﻮﺍﺭﺯﻣﻴﺔ ﺩﺟﻜﺴﺘﺮﺍ‬

Most Attractive Corner ‫ﺗﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﺃﻋﻈﻢ ﺯﺍﻭﻳﺔ ﺟﺬﺍﺑﺔ‬ ‫ﺩ‬

Most Likely Estimate ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻷﻛﺜﺮ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻ‬ Objective Function ‫ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻬﺪﻑ‬
Multi-Objective ‫ﻣﺘﻌﺪﺩ ﺍﻷﻫﺪﺍﻑ‬ Minimization ‫ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﺗﺼﻐﻴﺮﻳﺔ‬

Multiple Optimal Solutions ‫ﺣﻠﻮﻝ ﻣﺘﻌﺪﺩﺓ ﻣﺜﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺭ‬

N Unit Profit ‫ﺭﺑﺤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺣﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺣﺪﺓ‬

Natural Language Systems ‫ﺃﻧﻈﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻠﻐﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺱ‬

Clock Time ‫ﺳﺎﻋﺔ ﺗﻮﻗﻴﺖ‬

- 222 -
‫ﻋﻠﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺳﺏ‬

Network Analysis ‫ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺸﺒﻜﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺹ‬

Network Models ‫ﻧﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﺸﺒﻜﺎﺕ‬ Pivot Row ‫ﺻﻒ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻮﺭ‬
Non Negative Constraints ‫ﻗﻴﺪ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ‬ Constraints ‫ﺻﻴﺎﻏﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻮﺩ‬
Nonlinear Programming ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺮﻣﺠﺔ ﻏﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﺨﻄﻴﺔ‬ Formulation ‫ﺻﻴﺎﻏﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺭﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎ‬

Nonmix Variables
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﻏﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﺔ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺤﻞ‬ ‫ﻁ‬
Northwest Corner Modi Modified Distribution
Technique ‫ﻁﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺮﻛﻦ ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻟﻐﺮﺑﻲ‬ Methods ‫ﻁﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺪﻟﺔ‬

O Simplex Methods ‫ﻁﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﻞ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﻲ‬

‫ﻁﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺮﻛﻦ ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬
Objective Function ‫ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻬﺪﻑ‬ Critical Path Method CPM ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺮﺑﻲ‬
Operations Research ‫ﻋﻠﻢ ﺑﺤﻮﺙ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ‬
Optimistic Estimate ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻔﺎﺋﻞ‬
Optimized Production ‫ﺃﻣﺜﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ‬ Minimum Cost Technique ‫ﻁﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺃﻗﻞ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ‬
Optimized Production
Technology OPT ‫ﺗﻘﻨﻴﺔ ﺃﻣﺜﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ‬ Gemory Methods ‫ﻁﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﻗﻮﻣﺮﻱ‬

P Simplex Methods
‫ﻁﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻤﺒﻠﻜﺲ‬
Parametric Programming ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺮﻣﺠﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺮﺍﻣﺘﺮﻳﺔ‬ Hungarian Method ‫ﻁﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﻫﺎﻧﻐﺎﺭﻳﺎﻥ‬
Paths ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻕ‬ Critical Path Method (CPM) ‫ﻁﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺤﺮﺝ‬

Permanent ‫ﻧﻬﺎﺋﻲ‬ ‫ﻉ‬

Pessimistic Estimate ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺸﺎﺋﻢ‬ Arrivals ‫ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ‬
Pivot Column ‫ﻋﻤﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻮﺭ‬ Number Of Services ‫ﻋﺪﺩ ﻧﻘﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ‬
Pivot Row ‫ﺻﻒ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻮﺭ‬ Dummy Supply Point ‫ﻧﻘﻄﺔ ﻋﺮﺽ ﻭﻫﻤﻲ‬
‫ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﺎﺋﻦ ﺃﻭ‬
Plant Scheduling ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻝ‬ Statistics ‫ﻋﻠﻢ ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎء‬
Powers Or Exponentiation ‫ﺍﻷﺳﺲ‬ Management Science ‫ﻋﻠﻢ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ‬
Predecessor Activities ‫ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ‬ Decision Science ‫ﻋﻠﻢ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ‬

Primal ‫ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﺃﻭﻟﻲ‬ Operations Research ‫ﻋﻠﻢ ﺑﺤﻮﺙ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ‬

Program Evaluation And
Review Technique ‫ﺃﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﺮﺍﻣﺞ‬
PERT ‫ﻭﻣﺮﺍﺟﻌﺘﻬﺎ‬ Service Process ‫ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ‬
Programming Languages ‫ﻟﻐﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﺮﻣﺠﺔ‬ Arrival Process ‫ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺻﻮﻝ‬
Project Duration ‫ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬ Pivot Column ‫ﻋﻤﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻮﺭ‬
Pure Integer Programming ‫ﻣﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺮﻣﺠﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﺤﻴﺤﺔ‬
Problem ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺎﻓﻴﺔ‬

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 ‫ﻋﻠﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺳﺏ‬

Q ‫ﻑ‬
Quadratic Programming ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺮﻣﺠﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻴﺔ‬ Idle ‫ﻓﺎﺭﻍ‬
Quality ‫ﺟﻮﺩﺓ‬ Project Duration ‫ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

Quantitative Analysis ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﻕ‬

Non Negative
Quantitative Methods ‫ﺍﻷﺳﺎﻟﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ Constraints ‫ﻗﻴﺪ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ‬

Queuing Models ‫ﻧﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﻮﻑ‬ ‫ﻙ‬

Queuing Theory ‫ﻧﻈﺮﻳﺔ ﺍﻻﻧﺘﻈﺎﺭ)ﺍﻟﺼﻔﻮﻑ‬ Improvement Row ‫ﻛﺴﺐ ﺍﻟﻮﺣﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺣﺪﺓ‬

R ‫ﻝ‬
Reasoning ‫ﺃﻧﻈﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ‬ Infinite ‫ﻻﻧﻬﺎﺋﻲ‬

Recursive Equation ‫ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺍﺟﻊ‬ ‫ﻡ‬

Robots Control ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻜﻢ ﺍﻵﻟﻲ‬ Temporary ‫ﻣﺆﻗﺘﺔ‬

S Inference Engine ‫ﻣﺎﻛﻴﻨﺔ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺪﻻﻝ‬

Multiple
Schedule Times ‫ﺟﺪﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﻗﺎﺕ‬ Objectives ‫ﻣﺘﻌﺪﺩ ﺍﻷﻫﺪﺍﻑ‬
Sensitivity Analysis ‫ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺤﺴﺎﺳﻴﺔ‬ Multi-Objective ‫ﻣﺘﻌﺪﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﻫﺪﺍﻑ‬
Service Discipline ‫ﻧﻈﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ‬ Slack Variable ‫ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﻓﺎﺋﺾ‬
Service Process ‫ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ‬ Feasible Solution ‫ﻣﺠﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺤﻞ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻜﻦ‬
Service Time ‫ﻣﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﻟﻜﻞ ﺯﺑﻮﻥ‬ Deterministic ‫ﻣﺤﺪﺩﺓ‬
Services , Number Of ‫ﻋﺪﺩ ﻧﻘﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ‬ Service Time ‫ﻣﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﻟﻜﻞ ﺯﺑﻮﻥ‬
Shadow Prices ‫ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻈﻞ‬ Destinations ‫ﻣﺮﺍﻛﺰ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ‬
Shortest Path
Shipping Allocation ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻘﻮﻟﺔ‬ Problems ‫ﻣﺸﺎﻛﻞ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻳﻖ ﺍﻷﻗﺼﺮ‬
Shipping Cost ‫ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ‬ Subject To ‫ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻁ ﺃﻭ ﻣﻘﻴﺪ ﺑـ‬
Pure Integer
Programming
Shortest Path Problems ‫ﻣﺸﺎﻛﻞ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻳﻖ ﺍﻷﻗﺼﺮ‬ Problem ‫ﻣﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺮﻣﺠﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﺤﻴﺤﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﻓﻴﺔ‬
Mixed Integer
Programming
Simplex Methods ‫ﻁﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻤﺒﻠﻜﺲ‬ Problem ‫ﻣﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺮﻣﺠﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﺤﻴﺤﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻄﺔ‬
Assignment
Simulation ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎﺓ‬ Problem ‫ﻣﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﺼﻴﺺ‬
Transportation
Skewed Distribution ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺤﺮﻑ‬ Problem ‫ﻣﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ‬
Slack Variable ‫ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﻓﺎﺋﺾ‬ Knapsack Problem ‫ﻣﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺣﻘﻴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻈﻬﺮ‬
Recursive
Slacks ‫ﺇﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﻮﺍﺋﺾ‬ Equation ‫ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺍﺟﻊ‬

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 ‫ﻋﻠﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺳﺏ‬

Solution Values ‫ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﻟﺤﻞ‬ Gauss Jordan ‫ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔﻗﺲ ﺟﻮﺭﺩﻥ‬

Exchange
Sources ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺎﺩﺭ‬ Coefficient ‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﻴﺮ‬
State ‫ﺣﺎﻟﺔ‬ Exchange Ratio ‫ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﻴﺮ‬
Static Simulation Model ‫ﻧﻤﻮﺫﺝ ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎﺓ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ‬ Arrival Rate ‫ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻮﺻﻮﻝ‬
Statistics ‫ﻋﻠﻢ ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎء‬ Interarrival Rate ‫ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺃﻭ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﻷﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺻﻠﺔ‬

Stochastic ‫ﺍﻷﻧﻈﻤﺔ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻥ‬

Subject To ‫ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻁ ﺃﻭ ﻣﻘﻴﺪ ﺑـ‬ Solution Values ‫ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﻟﺤﻞ‬
Supplies ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺽ‬ Service Discipline ‫ﻧﻈﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ‬
Surplus Variables ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺰﺍﺋﺪﺓ‬ Kan Ban System ‫ﻧﻈﺎﻡ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺑﺎﻥ‬
Systems ‫ﺍﻷﻧﻈﻤﺔ‬ Continues System ‫ﻧﻈﺎﻡ ﻣﺘﺼﻞ‬

T Discrete System ‫ﻧﻈﺎﻡ ﻣﺘﻘﻄﻊ‬

Temporary ‫ﻣﺆﻗﺘﺔ‬ Queuing Theory ‫ﻧﻈﺮﻳﺔ ﺍﻻﻧﺘﻈﺎﺭ)ﺍﻟﺼﻔﻮﻑ‬
Central Limit
Totals ‫ﺍﻹﺟﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ Theory ‫ﻧﻈﺮﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺰﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﻛﺰﻳﺔ‬
Flexible
Manufacturing
Transportation Problem ‫ﻣﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ‬ System ‫ﻧﻈﻢ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﻧﺔ‬
Decision Support
Transportation Algorithm ‫ﺧﻄﻮﺍﺕ ﻁﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ‬ System ‫ﻧﻈﻢ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﻧﺪ‬
MIS Management
Information
Transportation Tableau ‫ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ‬ System ‫ﻧﻈﻢ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ‬

U Dummy Points ‫ﻧﻘﺎﻁ ﻭﻫﻤﻴﺔ‬

Unbalanced ‫ﻏﻴﺮ ﻣﺘﻮﺍﺯﻧﺔ‬ Network Models ‫ﻧﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﺸﺒﻜﺎﺕ‬
Unbound Feasible
Solutions ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺎﻛﻞ ﻏﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﻴﺪﺓ‬ Queuing Models ‫ﻧﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﻮﻑ‬
Discrete Event
Unit Profit ‫ﺭﺑﺤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺣﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺣﺪﺓ‬ Simulation ‫ﻧﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻘﻄﻌﺔ‬
User Interface ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺎﻋﻞ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ‬ Inventory Models ‫ﻧﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺰﻭﻥ‬

V Static Simulation
Model ‫ﻧﻤﻮﺫﺝ ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎﺓ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ‬
Dynamic
Variable Mix ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺤﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ‬ Simulation Model ‫ﻧﻤﻮﺫﺝ ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎﺓ ﺩﻳﻨﺎﻣﻴﻜﻲ‬

Y Monte Carlo
Simulation ‫ﻧﻤﻮﺫﺝ ﻣﻮﻧﺘﻲ ﻛﺎﺭﻟﻮ‬
Zero-One-Problems ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺎﻛﻞ ﺫﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺘﻴﻦ‬ Permanent ‫ﻧﻬﺎﺋﻲ‬

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 ‫ﻋﻠﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺳﺏ‬

‫ﻣﺮﻓﻖ ﺭﻗﻢ )‪(3‬‬

‫ﻣﺮﺍﺟﻊ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺍﺟﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ‪:‬‬

‫‪،‬‬ ‫‪ .1‬ﻧﻈﺮﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻳﺔ )ﻣﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﻭﻁﺮﻕ ﻛﻤﻴﺔ(‪ ،‬ﻛﺎﺳﺮ ﻧﺼﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺼﻮﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ‪ ،‬ﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻣﺪ ‪ 2000‬ﻡ‪.‬‬
‫ﺩﺧﻞ ﻛﻤﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ(‪ ،‬ﺣﺴﻦ ﻋﻠﻲ ﻣﺸﺮﻓﻲ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ .2‬ﻧﻈﺮﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ)ﻡ‬
‫ﻋ ّﻤﺎﻥ‪ ،‬ﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﻴﺮﺓ ﻟﻠﻨﺸﺮ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ‪1997 .‬ﻡ‪.‬‬
‫‪ ،‬ﺗﺮﻛﻲ ﺇﺑﺮﺍﻫﻴﻢ ﺳﻠﻄﺎﻥ‪،‬ﺍﻟﺮﻳﺎﺽ ‪ ،‬ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ‬ ‫‪ .3‬ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﺗﺨﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻠﻚ ﺳﻌﻮﺩ‪1984 .‬ﻡ‬
‫‪ ، (2‬ﺩ‪ .‬ﺇﺑﺮﺍﻫﻴﻢ ﻣﺨﻠﻮﻑ‪ ،‬ﻣﺬﻛﺮﺓ ‪ ، -‬ﻗﺴﻢ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﻟﻴﺐ‬ ‫‪ .4‬ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ)‬
‫ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻠﻚ ﺳﻌﻮﺩ‪1998.‬‬
‫ﺍﻷﺳﺎﻟﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﺗﺨﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ‪ .‬ﺩ‪ .‬ﻣﻨﺼﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﻳﻮﻱ ) ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺭ‬ ‫‪ .5‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ‪1987‬ﻡ(‪.‬‬
‫ﺑﺮﻭﻧﺴﻮﻥ‪ .‬ﻧﻴﻮﻳﻮﺭﻙ‪ :‬ﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫‪ .6‬ﻧﻈﺮﻳﺎﺕ ﻭﻣﺴﺎﺋﻞ ﻓﻲ ﺑﺤﻮﺙ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ‪ .‬ﺩ‪ .‬ﺭﻳﺘﺸﺎﺭﺩ‬
‫ﻣﺎﻛﺮﻭﻫﻴﻞ ﻟﻠﻨﺸﺮ ؛ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻫﺮﺓ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﺸﺮ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ‪.1988 ،‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺍﺟﻊ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ‪:‬‬

‫‪1. Operation Research, Application and Algorithms, Wayne‬‬

‫‪L. Winston, Indiana University, 4th Edition, 2004.‬‬
‫‪2. Applied Management Science: A Computer-Integrated‬‬
‫‪Approach for Decision Making: John A., Jr. Lawrence,‬‬
‫‪Barry Alan Pasternak, 1997‬‬
‫‪3. Introduction to Operations Research, Hamdy A. Taha,‬‬
‫‪eighth edition, April 4, 2006.‬‬
‫‪4. Introduction to mathematical programming, Frederick S.‬‬
‫‪Hillier, Gerald J. Lieberman. 2 edition, April 1, 1995‬‬

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‫ﻋﻠﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺳﺏ‬

5. Production and Operations Analysis, Second Edition,

Steven Nahmais, Santa Clara University, IRWIN, March 3,
2008
6. Introduction to Mathematical Programming, by N. K.
Kwak, Saint Louis University, Marc J. Schniederjurs
university of Nebraska, Robert E.Krieger Publishing
Company, Malabar, Florida, 1987
7. Quantitative Methods for Business Decision with Case.
San Jose. State University, The Dryden Press, Sixth
Edition, 1994
8. Operation Research Principles and Practice, Second
Edition, Ravindran Phillips Solberg, July 2007
9. Quantitative Decision-Making for Business, Prentice, Hall
International editions, Gilbert Gordon, Israel Pressman.
Third edition, 1990
10.Linear Programming and Network Flows, Second Edition,
Makhtar s. Bazaraa, John J. Jarvis, and Hanif D. Sherali,
November 2008

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