6/17/23, 11:36 AM The Black Sea grain deal has worked in the interests of the rich, not the

, not the poor – would Russia be within its rights to withdraw? — RT Russia & …

The Black Sea grain deal has worked in the interests of

the rich, not the poor – would Russia be within its rights
to withdraw?
Data shows that most of the produce exported by Ukraine goes to
Western Europe, with only a very small amount reaching sub-Saharan
Africa

FILE PHOTO: Piles of grain on board a ship during an inspection in Istanbul,

Turkey. ©  Chris McGrath / Getty Images

In mid-May, the UN Black Sea Initiative, widely known simply as "the grain deal," was
extended for another two months, until July 17. However, experts doubt whether this pact,
designed to provide the poorest countries with food, will be prolonged any further. 

In the final days of May, a scandal broke out around several cargo ships that were blocked
in the Black Sea. Six Turkish bulk carriers were unable to leave Ukraine, and even more
ships were halted at the entrance to the Bosphorus Strait. Meanwhile, Russia threatened to
terminate the agreement.

So what is really going on?

The war is to blame

The conflict in Ukraine has demonstrated just how fragile globalization can be. As a result
of a conflict in Eastern Europe, many external economies have slid into recession,
politicians have allocated huge funds from national budgets for aid, global trade has
been undermined, and billions of people have been put at risk of having their normal lives
disrupted. 

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The world has so far avoided a major energy shortage.

The looming food crisis, however, has become a
leading source of concern in the global
media. According to the UN, for the first time in
decades, developed countries may see a shortage of
basic products while the world’s poorer regions may
face real famine. 

For this reason, a lot of attention is now directed at the

deal, which allows grain and fertilizers to be exported Read more Henry Kissinger tried
from Ukraine via a safe corridor. This is also the reason to end the Cold War. Why did
why so many people became nervous when cargo those who came after him in
ships were blocked and stopped sailing.  Washington seek to restart the
conflict?
Mainstream media outlets claim that while Russia
selfishly delays the ships and halts navigation at sea,
the Ukrainian authorities and the UN are doing all they can to free the Black Sea “road of
life” and save the world from famine. 

Their version, however, is full of inconsistencies. If the cargo from Ukraine is so vital, then
why do experts believe that the Black Sea Initiative cannot solve the global food crisis?
And why did EU members Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Bulgaria, and Romania
place restrictions on the import of Ukrainian grain?

FILE PHOTO. ©  Alexey Furman / Getty Images

The role assigned to Russia is even more strange. Why would Moscow sabotage a deal
that can save one of its key industries? What would it gain from violating agreements with
an important partner, Türkiye? And finally, why would it risk new sanctions and make the
path to peace even more thorny?

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How things got to this point

The Black Sea Initiative came into effect on July 22, 2022. The agreement was signed by
representatives of Russia, Ukraine, Türkiye, and the UN. The parties pledged to organize
and maintain a safe corridor for the export of grain and fertilizers from Ukraine’s Port
Yuzhny and via the Bosphorus Strait in order to prevent a global food shortage.

For its part, Russia has promised not to interfere with

the loading and unloading of cargo in the Black Sea,
where fighting continues, and not to destroy
infrastructure that is critically important for the grain
deal. As for Ukraine, the terms of the agreement
required it to coordinate shipments with inspectors and
not to use the safe corridor for weapons and munitions
supplies. Türkiye acted as a mediator and provided
most of the cargo ships. The UN also promised to ease
Read more Glenn Diesen: How economic sanctions imposed on Russia.
the US military-industrial complex
has used think tanks to hijack EU A Joint Coordination Center (JCC) – with
policymaking representatives from Russia, Ukraine, Türkiye, and the
UN – was established in Istanbul in order to monitor
cargo shipment and sea traffic. The JCC had to ensure compliance with the agreement
and inspect cargo ships as they entered and left the ports. 

Yuzhny (literally "south) is the biggest deepwater port in Ukraine, and has all the necessary
infrastructure for large ships. Coupled with its proximity to the battlefield, this makes the
facility, near Odessa, strategically important. However, for the sake of the pact,
Russia agreed to lift a maritime blockade and limit the actions of its Armed Forces so they
wouldn’t interfere with the transit of ships.

The grain deal ensures not only the export of grain from Ukraine, but also fertilizers and the
resources necessary to produce them. This includes ammonia, used for producing nitrogen
fertilizers. For most types of grain, these are a lot more important than phosphorus and
potash. Without ammonia, the world's food production would be endangered. For Russia, it
was particularly important to resume the operation of the Togliatti-Odessa ammonia
pipeline, which was responsible for half of Russia’s ammonia exports. The volumes were
huge and met the needs of Estonia, Bulgaria, Finland, Belgium, Lithuania, Spain, Sweden,
and other countries.

Due to sanctions, Russia’s huge ammonia production industry – the second largest in the
world after China – suddenly lost most of its buyers. With the signing of the grain deal in
July of last year, this situation was supposed to be resolved.  

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The grain deal was valid until October 2022. Then came the attacks on the Crimean Bridge
and Russian Navy infrastructure in Sevastopol. The Russian Defense Ministry said the
ships used for the second attack were stationed in the safe corridor. On the same day, the
Black Sea Initiative was halted. 

On November 2, the Russian Ministry of Defense received written guarantees from Ukraine

that the Black Sea corridor would not be used for military purposes. The pact was resumed
and later extended several times. 

However, the many problems concerning the

agreement itself were never resolved. 

A dubious solution to a fixable problem

The mainstream narrative assures us that the grain
deal was concluded to avoid the disruption of important
supply chains from Ukraine. The armed conflict
disrupted the export of grain, and even its storage
became difficult and dangerous. Since the whole world
Read more Inside Europe's
could face a food crisis as a result of these actions, all
largest salt mine: Wagner Group
parties agreed on a compromise. But now, Russia is
fighters offer a tour of the huge
sabotaging the agreement and threatening to disrupt
Donbass facility captured from
supplies in order to achieve its goals.
Ukrainian forces
In reality, things are a lot more complicated.

Ukrainian agricultural exports are definitely important for the global economy. Before the
start of the conflict, Ukraine was the world’s third largest supplier of maize – one of the
most important cereal grains. Its production rate was exceeded only by the United States
and Argentina. Ukrainian agriculture was quite successful in other aspects as well.

Russia’s agriculture industry, however, easily surpasses it. Russia is one of the global
guarantors of food security and the largest supplier of wheat and ammonia – providing
17% and 20% of the world’s total market supply, respectively, before February of last year. 

Since then, however, the Russian agricultural industry has been hit by sanctions. The
Russian Agricultural Bank – the main payment operator in the agricultural industry – was
disconnected from SWIFT, the Western assets of agriculture producers and exporters have
been frozen, the supply of agricultural equipment, spare parts, and service to Russia has
been halted, and exports have been hit.  

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FILE PHOTO: Monument to Friedrich Engels, Moscow. Background:

Rosselkhozbank sign. ©  Sputnik / Maksim Blinov

A bunch of hasty sanctions turned out to be more catastrophic for the world's food supplies
than missiles and bullets. The problems caused by an interruption in Ukrainian grain
supplies do not even come close to those caused by the boycott of Russian agricultural
products. Agriculture Minister Dmitry Patrushev believes that, given the opportunity,
Russian exports could fully replace and exceed those of Ukraine. 

In the common interest, but not for everyone

The UN quickly assumed the role of defender of the weak and hungry and said that its
mission in the initiative was “to stabilize food prices and prevent hunger that will impact
millions.” Unfortunately, the noble plan turned out to be questionable in practice. 

The UN’s own statistics show that 50% of all cargo

exported under the grain deal is sent to other parts of
Europe. Another 26% goes to East Asia, 15% is sent to
the Middle East and North Africa, and 5% goes to South
Asia. Only 2.5% of the grain and fertilizers concerned
are dispatched to Sub-Saharan Africa, where about 240
million people lack adequate nutrition. 

Instead of aiding a region that already suffers from a

Read more Inside the ‘Bakhmut severe food crisis recently exacerbated by severe
meat grinder’: How Russia forced droughts – where, according to some sources, one
Ukrainians to retreat from person dies of hunger every 48 seconds – the UN helps
Artyomovsk, their supposed Europeans save money on food, which ensures that
‘fortress’ in Donbass politicians don’t lose the support of voters.

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The UN appears to be in no hurry to fulfill its obligations to Russia, established in the

Memorandum of Understanding, either. Over the past 10 months, Russian producers of
agricultural products and fertilizers have not received the promised access to global
markets. Apparently, to save the world from hunger, only grain and fertilizers of Ukrainian
origin would do. The Togliatti-Odessa ammonia pipeline stands idle as Kiev continues
setting new conditions and demands new ports to be included in the pact in order to make
control over the shipped goods even more difficult. 

As a result of this deal, Russia faces only restrictions, Türkiye can’t do anything with the
ships stuck in the ports, the UN has to maneuver between incompatible interests, and the
world’s poor struggle to survive. The only beneficiary of the Black Sea Initiative is Kiev.
With the help of the UN, for Ukrainian officials the deal turned into a way to make easy
money.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (L), Ukrainian President Volodymyr

Zelenskyy (C) and United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres (R) pose
during a joint press conference after their meeting in Lviv, Ukraine on August
18, 2022. ©  TCCB / Murat Cetinmuhurdar / Handout / Anadolu Agency via
Getty Images

Seeing that anti-Russian sanctions caused a large niche to open up in the market, Ukraine
decided to take advantage of it. While reducing its cheaper exports of maize – a popular
staple in poor countries – it increased exports of wheat, sought-after in richer state.

The imbalance has become so striking that Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Bulgaria, and
Romania set restrictions on the import of Ukrainian grain. These countries announced a
sudden “thousandfold” increase in grain supplies from Ukraine, and as a result, local
farmers could not sell their crops.

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Instead of providing vital food supplies that can save lives, Ukrainian officials are busy
making money from the crisis.

Dubious Ukrainian tactics don’t stop there, however. A

source close to the JCC who wished to remain
anonymous, spoke about the pressure exerted on
Russian inspectors. “When we refuse to approve the
departure of unprepared or non-compliant ships, we are
simply held onboard until we give forced consent. Our
complaints are ignored, and no one pays attention to
our opinion.” 

Thus, Russian inspectors are no longer able to check Read more Nightmare in Manipur:
the type and volume of goods being loaded onto the Peace remains elusive in bloody
ships in Ukrainian ports.  battle over land, identity politics as
ethnic clashes singe Indian state
Ukraine also refused to seek a compromise during the
suspension of the deal. The Russian Navy tried to ease
the situation and offered to lead the Turkish ships stuck in Yuzhny along another route that
is not included in the Black Sea Initiative. The Russian Navy was also ready to clear the
sea route of mines and escort the ships.

On May 24, three days before the planned departure, drones attacked the Russian
intelligence ship Ivan Khurs, responsible for the security of the TurkStream and Blue
Stream gas pipelines. The attack was successfully repelled, the ship safely returned to the
naval base in Sevastopol, and the crew received awards. But the command could not risk
either their ships or the lives of the crew of a neutral state. As a result, the departure of
Turkish bulk carriers was further postponed. 

Coincidentally, Ivan Khurs was attacked by British-made drones, operated from Ochakov: a

naval center opened and equipped with the help of the United States.

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The Ivan Khurs, a Project 18280 reconnaissance ship, during a naval parade
rehearsal in Kronstadt to mark Navy Day. ©  Sputnik / Alexander Galperin

A matter of patience 
Despite various provocations and dishonesty in fulfilling the obligations of the agreement,
the grain deal was extended for another 60 days. For its part, Russia is ready to stick to its
obligations. Of course, Moscow is acting in its own interests – the Togliatti-Odessa pipeline
will allow it to return to an important ammonia market, and the restoration of normal trade
will help Russian agriculture. Perhaps this can even help balance the currently unstable
food market. However, there’s more to the matter than that. 

Moscow is not interested in destabilizing the entire world. Famine in Africa can lead not
only to mass deaths, but also to a new wave of migration to more developed countries that
don’t have food shortages. Given that Europe, of which Russia is the biggest part, barely
managed the crisis presented by Syrian migrants, the influx of another – possibly even
larger – wave of refugees will lead to unimaginable consequences. 

However, the longer the deal remains one-sided and the regulators are biased, the less
chance Moscow has of fulfilling its side of the agreement. After all, for Russia, the deal
restricts both the army and the economy without any benefits in return.

The words of Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov best reflect Russia’s position.

“If everything remains as it is, and, apparently, it will, then we will have

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to proceed from the fact that it (the grain deal) is no longer functioning,”

he said at a recent press conference.

The importers may come up with alternative solutions and try to partially replace Ukrainian
supplies. However, to do this quickly and without the help of Russia as one of the main
producers of grain and fertilizers in the world will be difficult, to say the least. A mistake like
that is bound to come at a high price – not just raising price tags in supermarkets, but
spurring a real global crisis.

By Vadim Zagorenko, a Moscow-based journalist

focused on international relations and tech

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