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Jmfl-Policybazaar Ic 161121
Jmfl-Policybazaar Ic 161121
PB Fintech (Policybazaar)
Insurance on a Platter
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Introduction 3
Key Charts 4
Investment Thesis 6
Addressable Market 12
Financial Analysis 15
Valuation Methodology 17
Key Risks 19
Company Overview 20
Learnings across the globe 25
Competitive Landscape 26
Key Medium to Long-term Industry Trends 28
Financial Tables 29
RECENT REPORTS
PB Fintech (Policybazaar)
Insurance on a Platter
Insurance is a long-term penetration story with distribution playing a
Policybazaar is the dominant market leader in a large and key role: Even with INR 8.3tn in premium generated in FY21, India has
growing industry with strong tailwinds such as increasing digital one of the highest insurance ‘protection gap’ amongst global
penetration, rising disposable income and insurance awareness. economies. Policybazaar due to its monopolistic positioning and broad
The company garnered 93.4% market share in FY20 among insurer coverage is likely to be at the forefront of enhancing insurance
online insurance distributors and also remains ideally positioned penetration in the country. The company’s web portal will benefit from
improving tech penetration while the recently launched physical
to leverage its brand presence and insurer coverage to rapidly
distribution will take insurance products to peoples’ homes across the
penetrate physical insurance distribution. We postulate that the length and breadth of India. We forecast insurance business to deliver
company should continue deepening scale moats in light of Premium/Revenue CAGR of 31%/32% over FY21-31. While we expect
new-found competition emerging from insurers’ direct channels slight market share loss in online distribution due to insurers’
and cross-sell by fin-tech players (PhonePe, Paytm etc.). We also investment in direct channel and newer competition, this loss will be
expect Paisabazaar (credit marketplace) to grow synergistically, aptly compensated by the company’s growth in physical distribution
by leveraging the group’s digital fulfilment capabilities. We (11% premium contribution in FY31).
forecast Group Revenue to deliver FY21-31 CAGR of 31% led
Larger renewal base, tech investments and operating leverage to drive
by 31%/25% CAGR in Insurance Premium/Credit Disbursals. margin improvement: With incremental insurance premium generated
Our 12M target price for PB Fintech stands at INR 1,270 and we every month, Policybazaar is building out a larger renewal base that has
initiate HOLD on the stock. Though we see limited near-term higher contribution margins due to minimal CAC. Simultaneously, the
company’s investments into AI capabilities are expected to reduce
upside vs CMP post the strong listing, we reckon there is a likely
fulfilment costs by automating customer support and policy issuance.
path for PB Fintech to grow to a US$13.5bn (INR 2,260/share) These factors combined with operating leverage will drive operating
valuation over the next couple of years vs US$7.3bn currently, profitability by FY26.
provided a few incremental levers fall into place (unlikely in the
very near-term, in our view). The stock’s ability to generate Initiate with a HOLD and TP of INR 1,270 with significant upside risks in
further value here onwards would be premised upon: 1) Digital the medium-term: We value PB Fintech as of Mar’30 at 8x EV/Revenue
penetration surprising on the upside to 5.5% vs 4.5% assumed and 35x EV/EBITDA multiple to ideally factor-in long term growth as
well as dilute the impact of near-term one-offs. We then discount this
in our base case (China at 5.5% at present), 2) LIC, the
valuation to Dec’22 to derive our target price of INR 1,270 (5.6%
country’s largest insurer by miles, joining the platform, and 3)
upside from CMP). We initiate coverage with a HOLD rating solely due
Paisabazaar becoming a dominant player in the credit- to premium valuations with significant upside risks in our “Bull”
marketplaces space (See Exhibit 31). scenario that can drive share price to INR 2,200+ by Dec’24.
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Please see Appendix I at the end of this report for Important Disclosures and Disclaimers and Research Analyst Certification.
Key Charts
Exhibit 1. Insurance penetration in India across various segments
Life Insurance Health Insurance Motor Insurance
Lives covered/ Adults* Lives insured** /Total population Penetration excl. 2W^ (%)
92%
100% 95%
81%
28% 34%
Exhibit 2. Life insurer market share (based on new premium) Exhibit 3. Non-life insurers market share (based on premium)
Others
14.4% Life NBP (FY21) Non-Life (FY21)
New India
14.3%
ICICI Prudential
4.7%
United
Others 8.4%
42.8%
HDFC Standard
7.3%
National
7.1%
SBI Life
7.4%
ICICI Lombard
LIC 7.0%
66.2%
333
302
274
6,317
Exhibit 8. Competitive Landscape – Policybazaar is larger than the remaining four players combined
Distribution Insurer Partners Premium Online Traffic
Investment Thesis
1. Indian insurance continues to be a long-term penetration story
2. Online share to grow but physical format to present a larger opportunity
3. Policybazaar to continue dominating online insurance distribution despite
the recent delisting of some larger insurers
4. Foray into physical business to empower newer attractive avenues
5. Operating leverage, larger renewal base and tech investments to enable
improved margins and profitability
6. Paisabazaar is a synergistic business catering to the massive credit market
1. Indian insurance continues to be a long-term penetration story
In FY2020, Indian insurance industry accounted for INR 7.6tn in terms of total premium. India
has one of the highest insurance ‘protection gap’ amongst global economies. The insurance
density is also one of the lowest (Life at USD 58 and Non-life at USD 19 compared with the
global average of USD 379 and USD 439, respectively). India is among the lowest countries
globally in terms of sum assured as % of GDP in 2021. Moreover, penetration is particularly
low in the non-life segment at 1%, whereas the global average is 2.8% of GDP.
Limited information and understanding of insurance products are the two major reasons for
the under-penetration in India. With increasing income per capita, awareness of insurance
products in light of the devastating COVID pandemic and favourable government policies,
insurance penetration is expected to increase in India gradually. We estimate the total
insurance premium in the country to grow at 15.2% FY21-31 CAGR to reach INR 33.5tn by
FY2031 with significant headroom available for a decadal growth opportunity. While life
insurance will still continue to account for ~72% of the market, we expect Health and Others
(including travel, home, fire etc.) to grow at a relatively faster rate.
Source: Swiss Re Institute. Note: Bubble size indicates insurance market size in the country
Lives covered/ Adults* Lives insured** /Total population Penetration excl. 2W^ (%)
92%
100% 95%
81%
28% 34%
Source: BCG Report, JM Financial. Note: * indicates above 18 years of age. ** Lives covered= Individual + Group + Government. ^ Penetration basis total # of registered vehicles. Penetration= # vehicles insured/
insurable stock Figures for France–2017, India–2019.
Exhibit 11. Product share in the insurance market (Premium, FY20) Exhibit 12. Product-wise growth over the last five years in India
Personal Travel Others Growth CAGR (Past 5 Years)
Accident 0.1% 8.2%
0.7% 21% 20%
19%
Health
7.4%
Life - NBP
33.8%
15%
Motor
9.0%
10%
10%
8%
Life - Renewal Others Health Personal Life - NBP Travel Motor Life -
40.9% Accident Renewal
Source: IRDA, JMFL Source: IRDA, JMFL. Note: We have used FY15-FY20 CAGR for Life – Renewal, Health, Personal
Accident, Travel and others, CAGR is calculated over FY16-FY21 for Life-NBP and Travel
2. Digital channel to grow but physical channel will be too big to ignore
Most insurance companies across the globe (including in India) depend on distribution
channels to sell insurance policies. Traditional distribution models include retail agents,
corporate brokers, bancassurance and in-house sales force. All the traditional models are
opaque for the consumer as well as the insurer and leave significant control with the
distribution channels. Over the past few years, insurance providers in India have started to
beef up their digital platforms to drive traffic to the portals and sell insurance directly.
However, the total online channel (including direct and web aggregators) still accounts for
<1.5% of total insurance premium in FY21. The primary reasons for such low online
penetration in insurance sector have been 1) Insurance continues to be a push product that is
not “bought”, it is rather “sold” and 2) larger ticket insurance products (life and health) are
too complicated for a customer to purchase online. We expect online share as % of total
premium to grow from 1.0% in FY20 to 4.5% in FY31 with Indian population gaining
comfort with transacting online and policy terms and conditions becoming standardised.
However, we expect life insurance to still have only 2.4% online penetration while general
insurance online penetration is expected to reach 9.8%.
Exhibit 13. In volume terms, online policy sales now account for Exhibit 14. Similarly, the online channel’s share in total health
3%+ of total motor insurance policy sales insurance sales (volumes) has improved over FY16-FY20
Traditional - Direct Web aggregator
Online insurance sales (mn) Total motor policies sold (mn)
89
84
78
2.5%
1.0%
1.3%
0.2% 0.4%
2.3% 2.4%
2.0% 2.0% 1.9%
Offline, most insurance companies target the metro and tier-1 city population, where it is
easier to convince to buy insurance products. A media article indicates that for the private
sector in general insurance, 96% of the insurance branches of companies are in larger cities
despite a sizeable chunk of the population living in smaller cities. Even when it comes to
brokers (typically the largest channel for general insurance distribution), 85% have offices in
just 7 states. This presents a large opportunity for new-age insurance brokers such as
Policybazaar that have a leaner cost structure and can amortise these costs by selling
products of multiple insurers.
In Oct’15, IRDA allowed insurers and insurance intermediaries (brokers and corporate agents
but not web aggregators) to utilise the services of point of sales persons (PoSPs), ie agents,
with an aim to boost insurance penetration and density in India. PoSPs are individuals who
have reached minimum specified qualifications and completed mandatory trainings to be able
to sell an insurance policy. Insurers and intermediaries share a significant portion of premium
commissions generated with the PoSP agents in order to encourage them to increase their
sales volumes. One of the major advantages of distributing insurance policies through the
PoSP network is that companies can operate in an asset-light mode (limited number of
physical offices and sales based variable cost structure) even in under-penetrated semi-urban
and rural regions. Consequently, several digital-first intermediaries have off late transformed
their business model to omni-channel by building a PoSP agent network of their own.
40%
35%
2.5%
Life - NBP Life - NBP Motor - Health - Life - Renewal Life - Renewal Motor -
(Individual term) (Individual non- Comprehensive Individual (Individual term) (Individual non- Standalone TP
term >12 Yrs.) term)
Exhibit 17. Policybazaar market share of digital premium to stabilise at 43% in FY31
(in INR bn) FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E FY24E FY25E FY26E FY27E FY28E FY29E FY30E FY31E
Total Insurance Premium 7,618 8,304 9,546 11,037 12,742 14,683 16,887 19,390 22,231 25,460 29,129 33,303
Change – YoY 12.4% 9.0% 15.0% 15.6% 15.4% 15.2% 15.0% 14.8% 14.7% 14.5% 14.4% 14.3%
Total Digital Market Size 76 103 155 228 319 425 546 688 853 1,051 1,257 1,493
% Digital Share 1.0% 1.2% 1.6% 2.1% 2.5% 2.9% 3.2% 3.5% 3.8% 4.1% 4.3% 4.5%
% Policybazaar Share 49.3% 45.5% 46.0% 45.5% 45.0% 44.5% 44.0% 43.8% 43.5% 43.3% 43.1% 43.0%
Policybazaar Online Premium 37. 6 47.0 71.3 103.7 143.4 189.1 240.1 301.1 371.0 454.4 541.7 641.8
Change - YoY 62.3% 25.1% 51.7% 45.4% 38.3% 31.9% 27.0% 25.4% 23.2% 22.5% 19.2% 18.5%
Source: Company, JM Financial
While Policybazaar continues to grow from strength to strength, the recent media coverage
on the larger insurers – LIC, ICICI Lombard and HDFC Ergo – seems to suggest a worrying
trend. LIC has never been present on the broker portals as the company focuses on
complicated investment-related products that are best sold its dedicated agent network.
However, LIC continues to lose market share in life insurance segment and we believe that
the company’s impending IPO and enhanced investor scrutiny has the potential to push the
company towards being present where the customers are likely to be present – online and
PoSP network. ICICI Lombard delisted from web portals while deciding to focus on its own
direct online channel as the company did not want to be competing on pricing with other
insurers listed on these web portals. While that seems to be a fair policy, we believe
Policybazaar’s foray into the PoSP network can enable it provide customised support to the
insurance buyers and discuss non-pricing related features with the buyers as well and that
aspect could be attractive to ICICI Lombard. Similar reasons could apply to HDFC Ergo as
well. Moreover, insurance companies’ web portals are unlikely to be able to acquire
customers as cheaply as Policybazaar and these companies would also need to invest on
JM Financial Institutional Securities Limited Page 9
PB Fintech (Policybazaar) 16 November 2021
In conclusion, while we do expect the insurers to invest on strengthening their online portals
to get higher business via direct channel, resulting in Policybazaar’ market share of online
premiums declining to 43% by FY2031, Policybazaar will still continue to be maintain a
dominant, monopolistic position in online insurance distribution.
Access to offline customers: Policybazaar can now use the nationwide PoSP network
to sell insurance to customers that are expected to continue sticking to offline
format in the near to medium-term. This significantly enhances the serviceable
market available to Policybazaar.
Commissions on Life Insurance Renewals: While web aggregators are not allowed
to get commissions on renewals of life insurance policies, direct insurance brokers
are able to get renewal commissions too.
Corporate and Group Insurance: As a direct insurance broker, Policybazaar can also
serve corporate and group insurance customers while it was earlier restricted to only
catering to individual customers. The company can now provide fire insurance,
marine insurance etc. to small and medium companies, thereby increasing its
customer base with higher premium products. Simultaneously, the company can
now sell group health insurance (an INR 277bn opportunity) that was earlier
restricted.
Claims Support: Policybazaar can also provide claim support services to their
customers and hence have significantly higher customer engagement and touch-
points. This can enable the company to improve its renewal rates as more touch-
points can amplify customer stickiness. Higher renewal rates can boost margins as
customer acquisition cost (CAC) is zero.
Limit on number of insurer tie-ups? No limit No limit Max 3 each in Life, Health and General
Policy renewal commission allowed? Allowed for both life and non-life Allowed only for non-life Allowed for both life and non-life
Can offer any other product other than insurance products on platform? X X
Source: IRDA, Media Reports, JM Financial
With Policybazaar adding newer customers buying first-time insurance through the platform,
the company continues to build an ever increasing renewal base, particularly in health and
life segments. As these policies have significantly higher renewal rates due to high switching
costs, Policybazaar can generate annual business at zero CAC and hence benefit from margin
improvement.
Furthermore, the company continues to invest into tech / product capabilities in order to
reduce the dependence on call centre staff. In FY21, 3.7 million policies, representing 80.4%
of the new policies sold by Policybazaar, were sold with minimal human assistance. Going
forward, we expect the company to continue building product capabilities that are
convenient for buyers to have an end-to-end digital purchase while also improving artificial
intelligence capabilities to use chat-bots to answer simpler buyer questions. These tech
investments will enable call centre cost (as % of Policybazaar revenue) to drop to 27% in
FY31 from 60%/39% in FY20/FY21.
The company launched Paisabazaar platform in 2014 to simplify the process of consumer
credit in India. This platform enables the consumers to compare and apply for personal credit
products via Paisabazaar’s tie-ups with 56 banks and NBFCs. Consumers can apply for
personal loans, business loans, home loans, credit cars and loans against property.
Paisabazaar acquires a large share of its customers through free credit score checking utility
with ~22.5 million unique consumers having accessed their credit score as of Jun’21. This
platform generates revenue via commissions on loan disbursals, lead generation and fixed fee
arrangements with the partner financiers. Paisabazaar helped disburse ~INR 175bn worth of
loans over the past three fiscal years with FY21 disbursals dropping ~55% due to COVID-
related disruptions. However, the business is reverting now with Q1FY22 disbursals of INR
9.8bn. On a blended basis, Paisabazaar generates over 3% of disbursals as revenue.
Addressable market
PB Fintech has an overall addressable market opportunity of INR 33.3tn for
Policybazaar and INR 64.8tn for Paisabazaar
Life Insurance
India’s life insurance market has grown in spurts historically with the premium growing at
24% CAGR during FY01-11 and then followed up with an insipid 8% CAGR during FY11-21.
However, this past decade was also plagued with several changes in product regulations and
we expect a relatively stable regulatory environment going forward. Driven by increasing
disposable income in India and a discerning need of insurance since COVID, we expect life
insurance to grow at 14.3% CAGR during FY21-31 to reach INR 24.0tn in total premium by
FY31, accounting for 72% of the overall insurance market.
However, life insurance continues to be tougher to sell digitally due to complicated terms and
conditions requiring physical hand-holding for the consumers. Additionally, the largest life
insurer in the country with 65%+ market share, LIC, has not yet adopted to distribute online.
Hence, we expect digital share in life insurance to reach only 2.4% by FY31 from 0.7% in
FY21.
6,317
3,242 2,655 3,376
637 678 673
Health Insurance
The total health insurance premium in India was INR 637bn in FY21 with strong growth
expected in the near-term due to COVID raising awareness about the need of health
insurance coverage. India continues to be severely underpenetrated in health insurance with
only 20% of the population covered and over 60% of medical expenses incurred from out-
of-pocket. We expect health insurance segment to deliver the strongest growth of 17.7%
FY21-31 CAGR to reach INR 3,242bn, driven by increasing penetration as well as a shift to
higher coverage policies.
Exhibit 21. Life insurer market share (based on new premium) Exhibit 22. Non-life insurers market share (based on premium)
Others
14.4% Life NBP (FY21) Non-Life (FY21)
New India
14.3%
ICICI Prudential
4.7%
United
Others 8.4%
42.8%
HDFC Standard
7.3%
National
7.1%
SBI Life
7.4%
ICICI Lombard
LIC 7.0%
66.2%
Motor Insurance
Motor insurance premium accounted fro INR 678bn in FY21 with a 1.7% de-growth seen
over the prior year. With new auto sales impacted severely during the first half of the year as
well as COVID related work from home mandates resulting in people postponing renewing
their existing vehicle policies, this segment was the most severely impacted due to COVID.
With new auto sales impacted again in FY22 due to the chip shortages, we expect this
segment to bounce back gradually and then deliver a 14.8% FY21-FY31 CAGR to reach INR
2,698bn by FY31.
On the digital front, motor insurance is expected to continue being the highest penetrated to
reach 11.2% penetration by FY31 from 5.2% in FY21 as motor insurance policies are
relatively standardised and simple to understand. However, there remains a regulatory
overhang for the intermediaries’ market share in motor insurance due to the possibility of
five-year insurance (third-party and own damage) purchase obligation at the time on initial
vehicle purchase. In almost all new vehicle purchases, the dealer controls the insurance
transaction and intermediaries have only a minimal opportunity.
333
302
274
43 35
18 8
Other Insurance
Other Insurance segment includes categories such as fire, marine, cargo as well as the
recently emerging small-ticket categories such as flight, taxi rides etc. With insurance
products being built for newer use cases, we expect this segment to grow strongly to reach
INR 3,376bn by FY31 from INR 673bn in FY21.
As multiple of these categories are actually being launched digitally itself, we expect digital
penetration in Other Insurance segment to reach 10% by FY31.
Exhibit 24. Credit penetration in India is significantly lower than other major economies
Consumer Credit Penetration - As of CY20 India USA China
Consumer lending marketplaces that primarily enable lender discovery for customers are
addressing these issues and thereby playing a pivotal role in consumer credit penetration in
the country. They educate customers on a range of credit products, evaluate their credit
eligibility and help them compare, decide and apply for products (such as personal loans, car
loans, home loans and credit cards) that are well-suited for a particular individual. In turn,
they earn commissions from lenders for leads generated and loans disbursed to customers in
addition to earning advertising income. Some marketplaces also facilitate instant purchase of
personal loans and credit cards on their platform with no human intervention or paperwork.
This is subject to the level of backend integration marketplaces have with the lenders.
However, the product purchase process in case of home, automobile, gold, SME loans, etc. is
a bit more complex and requires certain level of paperwork. In such cases, the sales agents of
the marketplace follow up with the customer either online or offline to complete the loan
purchase process. The benefits of partnering with marketplaces from lenders perspective
include access to a broad spectrum of borrowers, wider reach without the need for brick and
mortar presence and comparatively low agent interaction and customer acquisition costs.
Source: JM Financial
India’s consumer lending market has grown strongly until COVID crisis with disbursals
reaching INR 13.5tn in FY20. However, FY21 has seen a small blip with COVID related
uncertainties impacting both, demand and supply for consumer credit. We are now starting
to see a decent reversal in lending and expect this market to reach INR 65tn by FY31, at
FY21-31 CAGR of 17.5%.
Financial Analysis
Insurance to continue being the primary business driver for Policybazaar
Insurance Premium reported 42% CAGR while revenue posted 49% CAGR over FY19-21:
Policybazaar’s insurance business grew strongly during FY19-21 as Indian populace became
more aware of insurance requirements due to heightened medical expenses and loss of life
during COVID. Growth in insurance premium was led by the renewals business, which posted
81% CAGR while new business premium could only manage 26% CAGR. We estimate
insurance premium to post a 31% FY21-31 CAGR driven by an increase in digital penetration
(5% in FY31) and Policybazaar’s physical channel also ramping up well to provide >10% of
the premium in FY31. Unlike other categories, we believe that digital penetration in India
would remain lower for a long period as insurance is a ‘push’ product while also having
inherent complexity in terms of coverage and exclusions. Hence, the large share of insurance
growth will be driven by a digitally-enabled PoSP model. We also estimate Policybazaar’s
digital market share to decline slightly to reach 43% from ~46% in FY21. We expect the
commissions as a % of total premium to stay stable and revert back to FY20 levels to drive
revenue CAGR of 32% over FY21-31.
Insurance premium market size (INR bn) 7,618 8,304 9,546 11,037 12,742 14,683 16,887 19,390 22,231 25,460 29,129 33,303
Change (YoY) 12% 9% 15% 16% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 14% 14%
Policybazaar insurance premium (INR mn) 37,586 47,013 73,301 109,473 154,376 207,257 267,427 338,947 420,040 514,918 611,651 717,393
Change (YoY) 62% 25% 56% 49% 41% 34% 29% 27% 24% 23% 19% 17%
Revenue (INR mn) 5,773 7,927 11,728 17,789 25,858 35,047 45,409 57,655 71,575 87,896 104,592 122,889
Change (YoY) 63% 37% 48% 52% 45% 36% 30% 27% 24% 23% 19% 18%
Revenue as a % of premium 15.4% 16.9% 16.0% 16.3% 16.8% 16.9% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.1% 17.1% 17.1%
Source: Company, JM Financial
Loan Disbursals reported -24% CAGR while revenue shrunk at -17% CAGR in FY19-21: FY21
has been a tough year for loan markets as both supply and demand were impacted. With job
losses and uncertain financial environment, customers avoided initiating discretionary
purchases on loan while the banks / NBFCs avoided lending aggressively due to a potential
rise in NPAs and RBI enforced loan moratorium prevented them from realising the actual
default rates. Going forward, we believe the digital loans industry would post ~21% CAGR
until FY30 and that Paisabazaar would roughly consolidate its market share in the face of
emerging competition from vertically focused lenders and direct channel of banks / NBFCs.
We expected Paisabazaar disbursals/revenue to record a 25%/26% FY21-31 CAGR.
Advertising Expense to reduce significantly: Management has mentioned that the spike in
advertising expense in FY19 and FY20 is expected to reverse significantly. Additionally, the
growth of physical business mix continues to reduce Policybazaar’s dependence on digital
marketing and we expect advertising expense to drop down to 20% of revenue by FY31
from 41% in FY21.
Physical Store and PoSP Expenses to ramp up: In light of the recently acquired Direct
Insurance Broker license, Policybazaar plans to invest heavily to become the most dominant
omni-channel insurance distribution platform in the country. Over the coming three fiscal
years, the company plans to use INR 3,750mn from the fresh issue in operationalising 200
physical stores and on-boarding PoSPs including their training costs and commissions.
EBITDA level profitability expected in FY26: With most costs curtailed deeply in FY21,
significant investments across manpower, tech/product along with the launch of physical
store business would require Policybazaar to continue requiring capital investments until
FY24. Additionally, as physical business also requires commission sharing arrangements with
the PoSPs, it will result in a slight margin dilution. However, this dilution would be more than
compensated by the incremental growth that physical business would bring by enabling
Policybazaar in selling complex products and also providing claims support to drive customer
experience. In conclusion, we expect the company to achieve EBITDA margins of ~25% by
FY31 from -18% in FY21.
Valuation Methodology
We initiate coverage on Policybazaar with a ‘HOLD’ rating, TP of INR 1,270 per
share. We also reckon there is a likely path for PB Fintech to grow to a US$13bn+
(INR 2200/share) valuation over the next couple of years
We believe Policybazaar is the dominant player in a large market with strong tailwinds
enabling a decadal growth opportunity. With its monopolistic market positioning, robust
balance sheet and strong brand recognition, the company remains impeccably positioned to
drive insurance penetration across India through its web portal as well as via recently
launched PoSP network. To provide the company credit for this, we believe Policybazaar
should be valued with a longer term bias that would also dilute the impact of distorted
financials in the near-term due to one-offs (COVID crisis and investment into physical
business).
Policybazaar does not have any direct comps across India or even globally as most global
insurance markets have distribution controlled directly by the insurers either in traditional
formats or via digital-first plays such as Lemonade and Metromile in the USA and Admiral in
the UK. Additionally, the retail insurance addressable market is curtailed in multiple countries
as health and life insurance is often provided by the employers or by the governments as part
of social security schemes. We therefore value Policybazaar as of Mar’30 at an average of 8x
EV/Revenue and 35x EV/EBITDA. We then discount the Mar’30 valuations back to Dec’22
assuming a discount rate of 11.0%. Our TP of INR 1,270 per share implies ~6% upside to the
CMP, implying EV/FY23 Revenue multiple of 25x. We initiate coverage on Policybazaar with a
‘HOLD’ rating.
25%. As FY21 was suppressed to COVID, this implies FY20-31 CAGR of only 14%.
Assuming that the company becomes more aggressive about expansion of
Paisabazaar and makes it a driver of value than just being an “ancillary” business
currently, we see an upside risk to our forecasts and Paisabazaar disbursals delivering
a 30% FY21-31 CAGR.
Exhibit 31. Path to USD 13.5bn valuation by Dec’24 (INR 2,260 per share)
USD 0.5bn
USD 1.5bn
USD 1.5bn
USD 7.6bn
These 3 scenarios can combine to deliver strong upside opportunity to the company’s
valuation with target share price reaching INR 2,250+ in Dec’24.
Key Risks
Downside risks: 1) Tech penetration in India is slower than forecasted by industry reports: Our
digital insurance/credit underwriting growth assumptions for Policybazaar are based on the
assumption that growing share of digitally native millennial/GenZ population in income share
would lead to significant increase in tech-enabled transactions. However, if tech-enabled
transactions penetration in India were to not materialise/or the rate is significantly lower than
forecasted by industry reports it could have significant impact on the company’s ability to
scale up and thereby report sustainable profits/free cash flow. 2) Growing competitive
intensity: Both the digital insurance and credit markets are characterised by few entry
barriers. In fact, a number of fin-techs are now aggressively building their own insurance and
credit platforms either in a D2C format or through partnerships with various insurers/lenders.
Ramp-up of these businesses is also getting accelerated due to current ease of raising private
capital. 3) Stakeholder conflicts: In Aug’21, HDFC Ergo announced plans to delist products
from third-party brokers while deciding to invest heavily on its in-house online platform. With
brokers continuing to gain negotiating power for higher margins, there is a likelihood of
other larger players also following suit, impacting the number of products offered. 4)
Regulatory risks: The insurance segment continues to be under heavy regulatory scrutiny with
regards to commissions, distribution models, capital adequacy etc. and there exist potential
risks with regard to regulatory headwinds. 5) Multi-year bundling of motor insurance policies:
There have been media reports mentioning that motor comprehensive insurance will be
bundled as a 5-year product at the time of vehicle purchase. While auto dealers control the
transaction completely at purchase and hence restrict any business reaching marketplaces
such as Policybazaar, this bundling will also take away annual renewal opportunities and
could impact business growth adversely.
Upside risks: 1) Insurance penetration exceeds our expectations: We expect the insurance
sector to continue to remain relatively underpenetrated in India in the medium term along
with a slower digital penetration trajectory due to the handholding needed for insurance
buyers. We believe there is potential for a positive surprise in both insurance premium growth
as well as digital penetration. 2) Sharp rise in online transacting users: Tech-enabled
transactions could grow at a much faster rate than expected due to faster than anticipated
rise in transacting user base on the company’s platform, thereby significantly upending
insurance premium underwritten/credit disbursements enabled by the company. 3) Company
manages to tie-up with Life Insurance Corporation: With the largest life insurance player
(65%+ market share), Life Insurance Corporation of India, continuing to not work with any of
the marketplaces, any business partnership with it could be a huge upside risk to valuation
expectations. 4) Regulation mandates compulsory purchase of certain insurance policies: E.g.
As in the case of motor insurance, any regulatory push that mandates compulsory purchase
of other insurance policies could also drive robust growth for the distribution players. 5)
Significant value accretion from organic/inorganic expansion: While our model factors in
significant growth opportunities for Policybazaar in its insurance/credit marketplace
businesses, the company is also exploring opportunities beyond these verticals – E.g. the
company has invested in Health-tech (Docprime), Car repair services (Quickfixcars) and
international expansion (UAE) which may provide incremental value to the company’s
valuations.
Company Overview
Delhi-based Policybazaar was founded in 2008, by Yashish Dahiya, Avaneesh Nirjar and Alok
Bansal. The Company initially operated as an insurance research and comparison platform for
consumers and earned revenues through sale of leads to insurance companies. In 2012, after
receiving the web aggregator license consumers could also purchase policies on the
company’s platform for which it would earn commissions from insurers. Later, the company
also started providing telemarketing and outsourcing services to insurance companies. The
Company launched Paisabazaar platform in 2014 that helped consumers’ access credit by
comparing, choosing and applying from a wide range of personal loan and credit card
products. In 2021, the company acquired license to operate as a direct insurance broker in
order to further expand its gamut of services as well as operate an offline PoSP network
channel. The online portal garners ~10 million monthly visitors who can purchase over 340
life, health, motor, travel and home insurance products from 51 insurer partners. As of
Mar’21, Policybazaar has sold 19.2 million insurance policies to 9.6 million transacting
consumer since inception.
Alok Bansal
1.3%
Tencent
Inventus Capital 8.4%
1.4%
Ithan
Creek True North
1.7% 2.1% Tiger Global
Steadview Falcon 7.1%
2.2% 2.6%
Premji Invest Temasek
3.5% Yashish Dahiya 6.7%
Etechaces ESOP Trust Claymore Investment
3.8%
5.0% 5.7%
Source: Company, JM Financial
26 Mar'13-3 Apr'13 249.9 Inventus Capital, Intel Capital, Info Edge 1,650
Source: Company
3 Feb'14 - 31 Mar'16 Bachelor’s degree in Engineering from University of Citibank N.A. (India), Capital One
Mr. Naveen Co-founder and
(Policybazaar) Delhi and a Post-graduate diploma in management (Europe) Plc and Aviva Life Insurance INR 12.20 mn
Kukreja CEO - Paisabazaar
1 Apr'16 (Paisabazaar) from Indian Institute of Management, Kolkata Company India Ltd.
Master of management studies degree from Birla Advisory council member of Oktober6
Chief Operating
Mr. Sharat Institute of Technology and Science, Pilani and a Insight Pvt. Ltd., India; Hindustan Lever
Officer - 18 Nov'19 INR 12.48 mn
Dhall Post-graduate diploma in business management from Ltd., Times Internet Ltd., and Yatra
Policybazaar
XLRI, Jamshedpur Online Pvt. Ltd.
Bachelor’s degree of Technology from Indian Institute
of Technology, Kanpur, Master’s degree in
Chief Technical myMBSC.com Ptd. Ltd. (Singapore),
Mr. Saurabh 23 Sep'10 - 15 Jul'16 Technology from National University of Singapore
Officer - IBM India Pvt. Ltd. and GEP Solutions INR 12.74 mn
Tiwari and rejoined on 1 Feb'19 and an Executive programme in business
Policybazaar Pvt. Ltd.
management from Indian Institute of Management,
Calcutta
Bachelor’s degree in Commerce from Kurukshetra
Director of finance
University, qualified Chartered Accountant with the Fiamm Minda Automotive Ltd.,
Mr. Manoj and Principal
28 Aug'08 Institute of Chartered Accountants of India and Ericsson India Pvt. Ltd. and FE Global INR 6.85 mn
Sharma Officer -
qualified associate with the Insurance Institute of Technology Services Pvt. Ltd.
Policybazaar
India
Senior Vice president – legal,
compliance and corporate affairs -
Munich Health Insurance Company
Bachelor’s degree in Commerce and Bachelor’s
Group Head – Ltd. ; Vaish Associates Advocates,
Ms. Deepti degree in law from University of Delhi and qualified
legal and 10 Feb'20 Canara HSBC Oriental Bank of INR 7 mn
Rustagi Company Secretary with the Institute of Company
compliance Commerce Life Insurance Company
Secretaries of India
Ltd., Aviva Life Insurance Company
India Ltd. and Apollo Munich Health
Insurance Company Ltd.
PB Fintech
Policybazaar Paisabazaar
Insurance
Commission from
commissions, Outsourcing Online marketing Online marketing
financial products
rewards and listing services and consulting and consulting
and sale of leads
services
Exhibit 41. Policybazaar: Premium break-up Exhibit 42. Policybazaar: Premium per advisor and no. of advisors
New business premium (INR mn) Premium from renewals (INR mn) Premium per new advisor (in mn) Premium per advisor (in mn)
No. of advisors
47,013
4,422 14.10
37,586 3,675
19,584 3,334
3,134
11,182
8.50 8.23
23,154
6.30 5.97
5,967
15,669 5.00
4.68
26,404 27,429
7,706
17,187 2.54
7,963
Exhibit 43. Paisabazaar: Disbursals data Exhibit 44. Paisabazaar: Users and disbursal % to existing customers
Users accessing their credit score
Paisabazaar disbursals (INR mn) (mn)
Disbursals to existing cutomers 22.5
65,496
67.8%
51,015
67.0%
29,167
21.5
9,842
Exhibit 45. PB Fintech: Business wise revenue break-up Exhibit 46. PB Fintech: Function-wise employee share
Policybazaar Paisabazaar Others (Docprime) General Administration Sales and Marketing
Technology and product management Operations
Broader Product bouquet available for distribution: The addressable market available
for distribution in most developed economies has been devoid of the larger life and
health insurance opportunity. These segments also have higher ticket premiums and
higher renewal rates and are very attractive for a distributor such as Policybazaar.
However, in most developed economies, life and health insurance is provided either
as social security by the government or by the employers. With a higher share of
population participating in organised employment, the coverage rates are very high.
Even though the remaining insurance segments are also decently large in these
economies but a smaller TAM makes the business model less attractive and private
participants in these countries have focused on becoming the insurer itself to
capture the entirety of the value chain.
With ~INR 18bn available in cash and investments, why is primary issuance needed?
Policybazaar is already sitting on INR 18bn pile of cash and the company is planning to raise INR 37.5bn in fresh issue. This will be the highest
amount of cash that Policybazaar has ever had since inception. We need to understand the reasons for this fundraise and where is it likely to
be used in order to comprehend potential future plans of the company.
Policybazaar has had a gradual and sustainable growth path historically with the company roughly breaking even in FY18. Since the Softbank
fundraise, the company has focused on pushing the growth pedal and the next step towards that is disrupting the physical distribution
channel where competitors such as Turtlemint, Renewbuy and InsuranceDekho continue to drive growth. While the company has allocated
INR 3.75bn from the fresh issue for physical offices and PoSP commissions until 2024, this will also be complemented by a strong investment
in advertising & promotion of INR 15bn. Simultaneously, the sector is also seeing enhanced competitive intensity from new entrants with fin-
tech platforms such as PhonePe and PayTM also eyeing insurance cross-sell to their consumer base and OLA, MakeMyTrip etc. getting into
smaller ticket insurance items such as travel, flights and taxis. Having large cash pile not only enables Policybazaar to fight in case of a battle
but also signals potential competitors to not resort to aggressive competitive tactics.
Competitive Landscape
Policybazaar
Almost 1.2% of insurance premium in India is transacted through digital channels with
marketplaces accounting for ~54%; the remaining is issued by the insurers directly on their
online platform. At INR 47bn, Policybazaar accounts for ~88% of the digital marketplace
business. While we expect Policybazaar to continue being the most dominant online player,
we believe insurers would continue to enhance their digital platforms to cater to consumers
directly as well.
With the Direct Insurance Broker license in place, Policybazaar can now take the omni-
channel route and compete with the other marketplaces in the PoSP business as well. The
company expects to enhance its physical offices to 200 by FY24 compared with 15 as of
today while also on-boarding PoSPs rapidly. INR 3,750mn from the fresh issue is expected to
be used by FY24 to build out this physical presence.
Exhibit 47. Competitive Landscape – Policybazaar is larger than the remaining four players combined
Distribution Insurer Partners Premium Online Traffic
Exhibit 48. Digital insurance intermediaries: Recent financials and funding details in brief
Revenue – FY20 EBITDA – FY20 Funding Latest known valuation
Platform Key Investors
(INR mn) Margin (USD mn) (USD mn)
Softbank, Info Edge, Tencent, Tiger Global, PI Opportunities
Policybazaar 5,159 -35% NA NA
Fund, Steadview, True North
Sequoia Capital, Lightspeed Venture Partners and Moonstone
OneAssist 2,460 -31% 41.7 149
Investment Management
Turtlemint 468 10% 130 176 Norwest Venture Partners, Sequoia, Blume Ventures, GGV Capital
Toffee Insurance 20 -468% 7.1 15 Kalaari Capital, Omidyar Network, Flourish and Accion
PolicyX 55 12% NA NA NA
InsuranceDekho 2016 Jaipur Broker NA Life, Motor and Health 2.5mn+ Has a POSP Advisor Network
Coverfox 2013 Mumbai Broker 40+ Insurers Life, Motor and Health 5mn -
PhonePe 2020 Bengaluru Corporate Agent 9 Insurers Motor, Travel and Health NA -
Turtlemint 2015 Mumbai Broker 35+ Insurers Life, Motor and Health 1.5mn+ >1 mn policies sold till-date
Toffee Insurance 2017 Gurgaon Corporate Agent 8 Insurers Life, Motor and Health NA -
Policyboss 2012 Mumbai Broker NA Motor and Health NA Has a PoSP network
PolicyX 2013 Gurgaon Web Aggregator Multiple Life, Motor and Health 0.2mn+ -
Source: Company, JM Financial. * indicates data based on company’s own web portal/disclosures
Paisabazaar
Exhibit 50. Key digital credit marketplaces
Platform Founded/Entry Base location Intermediary Type Lender Tie-ups* Credit products offered* Lifetime Customers*
Personal loan, Home loan, Car loan, Business
Paisabazaar 2014 Gurgaon Marketplace 54 21.5mn
loan and Credit Cards
Personal loan, Home loan, Car loan and Credit
Bankbazaar 2008 Chennai Marketplace 50+ 50mn+
Cards
CreditMantri 2012 Chennai Marketplace 50+ Personal loan, Business loan and Credit Cards 10mn+
Exhibit 51. Digital credit marketplaces: Recent financials and funding details in brief
Revenue – FY20 EBITDA – FY20 Funding Latest known valuation
Platform Key Investors
(INR mn) Margin (USD mn) (USD mn)
Softbank, Info Edge, Tencent, Tiger Global, PI Opportunities Fund,
Paisabazaar 2,261 -43% NA NA
Steadview, True North
Sequoia Capital, Walden International, Amazon India, Eight Road
Bankbazaar 802 -10% 117 264
Ventures
CreditMantri 280 -34% 14.2 21.2 Accion, Chiratae Ventures, Elevar Equity
APPENDIX I
Definition of ratings
Rating Meaning
Buy Total expected returns of more than 10% for large-cap stocks* and REITs and more than 15% for all other stocks, over the next twelve
months. Total expected return includes dividend yields.
Hold Price expected to move in the range of 10% downside to 10% upside from the current market price for large-cap* stocks and REITs and
in the range of 10% downside to 15% upside from the current market price for all other stocks, over the next twelve months.
Sell Price expected to move downwards by more than 10% from the current market price over the next twelve months.
* Large-cap stocks refer to securities with market capitalisation in excess of INR200bn. REIT refers to Real Estate Investment Trusts.
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No part of his or her or their compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research
report.
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