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Journal of Housing Economics 26 (2014) 126–138

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Journal of Housing Economics


journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jhec

The impact of construction quality on house prices q


Joseph T.L. Ooi ⇑, Thao T.T. Le, Nai-Jia Lee
National University of Singapore, Singapore

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: This paper examines the impact of workmanship and construction quality of new housing
Received 10 September 2013 on their sale price and capital growth. To measure construction quality, we take advantage
Revised 24 September 2014 of a unique situation in Singapore where newly completed residential projects are assessed
Accepted 17 October 2014
independently on their workmanship under the Construction Quality Assessment System
Available online 28 October 2014
(CONQUAS). Examining 100,593 sale transactions of apartment units in 205 residential
developments completed between 1998 and 2010, we find strong evidence that their sell-
JEL classification:
ing price and appreciation rate are related significantly to construction quality of the new
R21
R31
homes. Moreover, the ‘‘quality’’ premium is present in both the primary and secondary
markets. The empirical evidence suggests that apartments that are well constructed not
Keywords: only command a higher price for developers, but they also generate higher capital gains
Construction quality for homeowners and investors in the future.
Housing Ó 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Price inflation

Those who design and construct high-quality buildings 1. Introduction


may follow three strategies. One strategy is passive,
continuing to provide good quality and hoping that The quality of a house can be defined is different ways.
there will be a future although uncertain rewards from Many researchers have modeled housing quality as a func-
a good reputation. The second strategy is to aim directly tion of the neighborhood characteristics and structural
at the premium and provide easily digested information attributes of the houses. At the neighborhood level, hous-
in a standardized form that would influence the price ing quality is often associated with local amenities and liv-
paid for the facility. The third strategy is to acknowl- ing conditions. At the unit level, housing quality is
edge that real estate funds and similar investors are frequently restricted to structural attributes that could be
more occupied with the analysis of taxation and incen- measured objectively, such as the house’s built-up area,
tives for fund managers than with the technical quality number of bedrooms, number of bathrooms, and land area.
of built facilities. . .’’ Numerous studies have also identified the premiums
[Brochner (2011)] attached to the individual attributes using the hedonic
regression methodology (Rosen, 1974).
Besides these neighborhood and structural attributes,
q
We thank G. Ofori, K.O. Lee, M. Mori, T.F. Sing and participants at the buyers of new homes are particularly concerned with the
NUS IRES-DRE seminar for their valuable inputs and comments. We also
quality of construction and workmanship, i.e. the number
like to thank Piet Eicholtz and the participants at the seminar held in
Maastricht University for their comments and insights. We also thank the of defects in the completed units. Hence, it is not surprising
editors and reviewers for their helpful inputs and comments. The main that several authors have posited that buyers will pay a pre-
author received financial assistance from National University of Singa- mium for high quality homes. For example, Wieand (1983)
pore for this research project. postulates that the occurrences of defects or breakdowns
⇑ Corresponding author.
reveal poor quality components, and in themselves indicate
E-mail addresses: rstooitl@nus.edu.sg (J.T.L. Ooi), thanhle.thao@gmail.
com (T.T.T. Le), rstlnj@nus.edu.sg (N.-J. Lee). undesirable conditions which the occupants will attempt to

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhe.2014.10.001
1051-1377/Ó 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
J.T.L. Ooi et al. / Journal of Housing Economics 26 (2014) 126–138 127

avoid or will only accept the dwellings at reduced rent.1 capitalized into housing prices, there is no incentive for
Baum (1993) also hypothesizes that ‘‘front-loading’’ the con- the profit-maximizing homebuilders to produce good qual-
struction cost improves building quality and reduces the ity homes. This may consequently lead to a ‘‘lemons’’ market
maintenance costs for the occupier, which may in turn lead where only low quality of housing are provided (Akerlof,
to higher rental value and/or and lower capitalization rate 1970). From a policy perspective, this is certainly not desir-
for the building. Similarly, Ong (1997) argues that if the pub- able, which may then necessitates the regulators intervening
lic and buyers can observe the product quality, they will pay through incentives and or penalties to ensure that construc-
a market price which commensurate with the quality. tion quality in the housing development sector is not com-
There are many anecdotal incidents of homebuilders promised. From the property appraisal literature, the
advertising the construction quality of their developments premium for a marginal improvement in the construction
in the hope of gaining an edge over competing projects. and workmanship quality of housing is rarely incorporated
However, empirical evidence on the impact of construction in the appraiser report too.
quality on housing price is limited due to the difficulty in Moreover, house price changes affect many households’
quantifying the quality of workmanship and construction.2 wealth holdings because home equity constitutes a large
This paper attempts to fill the gap in the literature by taking percentage of household wealth (Le Blanc and Lagarenne,
advantage of a unique situation in Singapore where the work- 2004). House price appreciation can be tapped and makes
manship quality of new buildings is assessed independently by trading up in the housing market easier, likely increasing
regulators throughout their construction phase until physical turnover sates in the residential market (see Bourassa
completion. Under the Construction Quality Assessment Sys- et al., 2009). Variations in residential property prices also
tem (CONQUAS) scheme, the assessment covers three main affect the risk level of a homeowner’s portfolio (Englund
components, namely structural works, architectural works, et al., 2002). Hence, it would be insightful to calibrate to
and mechanical and electrical (M&E) works. An aggregate what extent capital appreciation of housing is related to
CONQUAS score (out of 100%) is given for each completed construction quality. This line of enquiry extends a stream
building. Focusing on the private residential market, we col- of the literature which finds that price appreciation of
lected the construction quality scores of 205 new housing pro- houses is not homogenous (see Smith and Tesarek, 1991;
jects in Singapore. The projects were completed within a time Archer et al., 1996; Smith and Ho, 1996; Clapp and
span of 13 years from 1998 to 2010. Combining this informa- Giaccotto, 1998; Coulson and Lahr, 2005; Harding et al.,
tion with another database containing the sale transactions 2007; Bourassa et al., 2009; Ferreira and Gyourko, 2012).
of new and resale units over the study period, this unique data We first identify the marginal value of construction
set allows us to evaluate the impact of good construction qual- quality by analyzing a total of 100,593 sale transactions
ity on prices in the primary and secondary housing markets. of multi-family dwelling units with varying CONQUAS
Two primary research questions guide our empirical tests. scores. Standard hedonic equations are employed to con-
First, do homebuyers pay a premium for new homes with good trol for building and unit heterogeneity as well as real
construction quality, and if so, by how much? Second, is it estate market conditions and other location-, time- and
worthwhile for homebuyers to pay more for quality homes? developer-fixed effects. Focusing on the value of good con-
These questions are not trivial. First, new residential struction, we introduce additional variables into the hedo-
projects are capital intensive and measures required to nic pricing function to capture the effect of construction
improve construction quality (either through prevention quality. Our results show a positive and significant positive
measures such as proper training of personnel, and process relationship between house prices and CONQUAS scores,
analysis prior to the start of each job; or through appraisal indicating that, all else being equal, a premium exists for
processes such as routine monitoring and benchmarking construction quality. Specifically, a one standard deviation
using systematic checklists at various stages of the project) improvement in the CONQUAS score increases the selling
incur additional costs.3 If good construction quality is not price of an average home by 2.92%. It is interesting to
observe that the premium on construction quality exists
1
The brokerage literature further suggests that the condition of homes
in the presale market, whereby houses are purchased off
can be inferred from their time-on-market with a longer time-on-market the drawings, i.e. before they are physically built. This is
associated with lower housing quality. The intuition for this argument is so despite that the CONQUAS scores are only ascertainable
that if a house has stayed on the market for a long time, potential after the new homes are physically built. Our analysis sug-
purchasers are likely to suspect that the property has some flaws which are
gests that the score of previous projects built by the same
not apparent to them but have been detected by earlier visitors (Taylor,
1999; Chen and Rutherford, 2012). homebuilders is a good predictor of the construction qual-
2
In the field of construction management, the three standard perfor- ity for their next development project.
mance measures for project assessment are cost, schedule and quality. We also observe that the construction quality premium
Unlike the first two measures which are quantitative in nature, quality is persisted in the resale (secondary) housing market. This
subjective (see Low and Yeo, 1998; Yasamis et al., 2002).
3 implies that homebuyers who have paid a high price for
From the contractor’s perspective, effective project control involves a
multitude of tasks including the meticulous management of procurement, good quality homes can at the least recoup the premium
cost, schedule, quality, workforce and safety. Kim and Kim (2011) on construction quality when they resell the houses in
highlighted that inspection is one of the critical processes in quality the secondary market. In fact, the effect of quality in the
control for ensuring that final products fulfill the defined requirements resale market is almost twice that in the presale market.
assigned by the customer. However, quality inspection requires enormous
amounts of time and effort from inspectors and contractors. Rosenfeld
New homes in the presale market can enjoy a 0.36% pre-
(2009) classifies them as costs of quality, i.e. the cost of measures taken to mium in sale prices for every additional CONQUAS score,
ensure and achieve a satisfactory level of quality. while existing homes will sell for 0.69% more. An average
128 J.T.L. Ooi et al. / Journal of Housing Economics 26 (2014) 126–138

house in our sample, which is sold at about $1,000,000, can rate the quality of a particular aspect of each dwelling unit,
raise its price by $21,456 and $41,124 in the presale and for example, the walls, on a scale ranging between 1
resale market, respectively, if its CONQUAS score is one (‘‘excellent condition’’) and 5 (‘‘requires replacement’’). A
standard deviation higher than the average score. The second survey conducted by city building inspectors pro-
lower premium attached to construction quality of uncom- vided quality ratings for specific aspects of the exterior of
pleted homes could be attributed to either a discount in each sample structure. In the third survey, building inspec-
the presale market due to uncertainty in the eventual con- tors also rated the quality of the block facing both sides of
struction quality scores, or the value of good construction the streets on which the sample dwelling units were
quality homes appreciating faster over time. located. The combined surveys provided 39 separate vari-
To probe deeper, we next examine how construction ables indicating the quality of the sampled dwelling units,
quality affects the price appreciation of new housing over which are then consolidated through factor analysis into
time. Prior studies have shown that houses of different five composite factors, representing qualities of the ‘‘basic
quality and location do not appreciate at the same rate. residential’’, ‘‘dwelling unit’’, ‘‘nearby properties’’, ‘‘non-
The null hypothesis is that the returns of high construction residential use’’, and ‘‘structure’’, respectively.4 In their
quality homes are not statistically different from the aver- hedonic regressions, three out of the five quality measures
age market return. To test this hypothesis, we employ a were statistically and economically significant in affecting
generalized version of the repeat-sales model to estimate housing rental values. Moreover, they find that the physical
the house price appreciation for 23,843 pairs of housing and environmental quality of dwelling units has about as
sales in our sample. Controlling for the overall price move- much effect on the price of housing as the number of rooms,
ment in the market, we observe that prices of high quality number of bathrooms, and lot size.5
homes appreciated significantly more than the average In another study covering twenty U.S. cities between
quality homes. This confirms that homebuyers who have 1974 and 1976, Wieand (1983) observes that housing
paid for good quality homes earned a higher return than quality is an important factor in rental consideration. He
buyers who have purchased lesser quality homes over measures housing quality by the probability-of-defect. This
the same period. is derived from the Annual Housing Survey which asked
This paper is organized as follows: Section 2 reviews the survey respondents about the presence of specific
prior studies in the literature which have examined the defects such as incomplete plumbing, broken kitchen
relationship between quality and housing prices and or appliances, or basement leaks in their apartments.
rentals. Section 3 outlines the objective measure of con- Ommeren and Koopman (2011) recent study on public
struction quality we used in the research, and describes housing in Rotterdam also find that maintenance quality
the sample used for the study. Sections 4 and 5 present sep- is negatively related to residential moving probabilities
arately the research methodology and empirical results for whilst positively connected with rent. Categorizing the
each of our two research questions. Section 6 concludes sampled apartments into high-, average- and low-quality
with a summary of the main findings and their implications. (based on maintenance condition obtained from the own-
ers), the authors find that households are willing to pay a
rent increase of 6.8% to move from a low-quality apart-
2. Literature review ment to an average-quality one, and 6.7% more to move
from an average-quality unit to a high-quality one.
It is widely recognized that home buyers are jointly The above studies have generally focused on the condi-
purchasing a wide variety of services at a particular loca- tion of existing homes, which is largely related to their
tion, such as a certain number of square feet of living space, state of maintenance and disrepair.6 Building age has been
different kinds of rooms, a particular structure type, an employed as an instrument of the otherwise unobservable
address, accessibility to employment, a neighborhood housing quality. This is on the basis that building age and
environment, a set of neighbors, and a diverse collection
of public and quasi-public services including schools, 4
‘‘Basic residential quality’’ variable measures the overall quality of the
garbage collection, and police protection. However, as exterior physical environment such as overall condition of the structure
noted by Kain and Quigley (1970), the difficulty in measur- and parcel, landscaping, cleanliness of the parcel and block face, conditions
ing the ‘‘quality’’ of a dwelling unit, that is how they impact of streets, walks and driveways. ‘‘Dwelling unit quality’’ variable represents
the structural condition and housekeeping inside the sample dwelling unit.
the occupiers’ utility, is perhaps the most vexing problem
‘‘Quality of proximate properties’’ variable accounts for the cleanliness,
encountered in evaluating the attributes of bundles of res- landscaping, and condition of nearby properties. ‘‘Non-residential use’’
idential services. Researchers try to determine the contri- variable measures the presence and effect of commercial and industrial
bution of specific housing attributes to property values or land uses in the immediate vicinity. ‘‘Average structure quality’’ variable
rentals by moving to a regression framework. However, measures the average quality of structures on the block face.
5
The coefficients suggest an increase of $7.22, $4.02 and $2.08,
for these attributes to be included in the hedonic pricing
respectively, for each additional quality unit – a substantial effect given
models, they need to be measurable. that the mean value of contract rents of their sample is $63.19. Similarly,
Kain and Quigley (1970) were amongst the firsts to rec- testing with the property owners sample confirms that they are also willing
ognize ‘‘quality’’ as an individual attribute contributing to to pay $750–$1400 more for properties with higher quality.
6
the value of a property. They employ data from three sep- Using data on 1.8 million house transactions in Massachusetts,
Campbell et al. (2011) recently find that houses sold close to the death of
arate surveys of around 1500 households and dwelling at least one of the seller are sold at 5–7% lower prices than other houses.
units in the city of St. Louis completed in the summer of They attribute the death-related discounts to result primarily from poor
1967. In the first survey, interviewers were instructed to maintenance of single-family housed by older sellers.
J.T.L. Ooi et al. / Journal of Housing Economics 26 (2014) 126–138 129

quality are highly correlated (that is, newly built houses also assessed. Other private developers may also request
tend to be in better physical shape than older houses). for their buildings to be assessed (Ofori and Gang, 2001).11
Nevertheless, Baum (1993) and Harding et al. (2007) have Other countries that have since adapted the CONQUAS suc-
cautioned that it would be incorrect to relate the age of cessfully include United Kingdom and Hong Kong.
structure to quality, especially for a property that has been The CONQUAS assessment system consists of three main
substantially refurbished or diligently maintained by its components: Structural Works, Architectural Works, and
owners.7 Moreover, self-assessment by owners may under- Mechanical and Electrical (M&E) Works within each compo-
standably overstate the quality of their properties. Occupi- nent are further divided into different items for assessment.
ers’ survey are also subjected to disparities in the Structural Works comprises: (i) Site inspection of form-
respondents’ view on what constitute good quality or their work, steel reinforcement and finished concrete during
diligence in reporting defects.8 construction. The assessment includes structural steel
In sum, prior studies that have attempted to relate ‘‘qual- and pre-stressed concrete if each constitutes more than
ity’’ to prices or rentals of existing homes focused primarily 20% of the total structural cost; (ii) Laboratory testing of
on the maintenance standard of the dwellings.9 However, compressive strength of concrete and tensile strength of
researchers face a potential endogeneity problem because steel reinforcement; and (iii) Non-destructive testing of
expensive homes are likely to have better quality. For exam- the uniformity and the cover of hardened concrete. The
ple, the literature argues that rent controls have an adverse structural integrity of the building is of paramount impor-
effect on the quality of housing because landlords are dis- tance as the costs of failure and repairs are very significant.
couraged from investing in the maintenance of their proper- Architectural Works deals mainly with the finishes and
ties (Olsen, 1988; Gyourko and Linneman, 1990; Moon and components. This is the part where the quality and stan-
Stotsky, 1993; Sims, 2007). In addition, empirical research dard of workmanship are most visible. The assessment
in this area is plagued by the lack of an objective measure covers: (i) Site inspection of internal finishes, roofs, exter-
of what is good (or bad) construction quality. Adopting an nal walls and external works at the completion stage of the
objective measure of construction and workmanship quality building. Internal finishes include floors, internal walls,
of new private housing developments in Singapore, our study ceiling, doors, windows and components (architectural
is the first to examine explicitly the influence of construction works that are not classified above); and (ii) Material &
quality on housing prices and returns. Functional tests such as water-tightness of windows and
external walls and adhesion of internal wall tiles.
3. Construction quality M&E Works covers Air-conditioning & Mechanical Venti-
lation Works (ACMV), Electrical Works, Fire Protection
We measure construction quality using the CONQUAS Works, the Sanitary & Plumbing Works and the basic M&E
scoring metric, which has been recognized in construction fittings. Their inclusion in the scoring is in view of their
economics literature as an objective measure of construc- increasingly high cost proportion and impact on the perfor-
tion workmanship quality (Ling, 2005). The scoring metric mance of a building. The stages of the assessment include:
was first introduced in 1989 by the Building Construction (i) Site inspection of in-process works during construction
Authority (BCA) as a standardized method of quality assess- such as on ACMV ductworks, electrical conduits, concealed
ment for homebuilders to set targets for contractors and to pipes; (ii) Site inspection of final installed works such as the
grade the quality of their finished buildings.10 Adopted as Air-Handling Unit (AHU), the cooling tower, fire alarm con-
the de facto yardstick for measuring the workmanship qual- trol panel; and (iii) Performance tests on selected works
ity of building projects in Singapore, all public-sector pro- such as Water Pressure Test, Earthing Test, Dry Riser Test.
jects with a gross floor area exceeding 5000 m2 are All assessments are carried out independently by asses-
required to be assessed under the CONQUAS. Private-sector sors from the Quality and Certification Department of BCA.
projects built on leasehold sites acquired from the State are For Structural and M&E Works, the assessment is carried
out throughout various construction stages of a project.
7
Baum (1993) contends that by measuring building depreciation and
For Architectural Works, the assessments are carried out
developing a classification of building qualities, it is possible to relate on the completed building.12 The weightage for private
qualities to depreciation in order to prove a stronger and more meaningful housing projects are allocated as follows: Structural Works
relationship exists between quality and depreciation than that which exists (25%), Architectural Works (65%), and M&E Works (10%).13
between age and depreciation. Harding et al. (2007) further argue that the
rate of decay is slower for homeowners who maintain their homes.
8 11
As noted by Lichtenstein and Kern (1987), quality measures obtained The fee for CONQUAS assessment can range from $10,600 (for
from tenants are unreliable and subject to serious measurement error developments with total floor area less than 5000 sqm) to $126,000 (for
because evaluation of quality involves subjective judgment. Consequently, developments with total floor area more than 110,000 sqm). Among all
different tenants are unlikely to apply consistent standards. 999-year and freehold residential projects that were completed between
9
The contribution of architectural design, which is commonly linked to 1998 and 2010 in Singapore, less than 40% do not have CONQUAS scores.
12
the aesthetic appearance and internal spatial configuration of the housing The assessment includes tests on the materials and the functional
project, to the value of buildings has been evaluated empirically by Vandell performance of selected services and installation. These tests helps to
and Lane (1989). The results of their study confirm a strong influence of safeguard the interest of building occupants in relation to safety, comfort
design on rents; structures rated in the top 20% for design quality were and aesthetic defects, which surface only after sometime. Information on
predicted to extract almost 22% higher rents than those rated in the bottom the CONQUAS is available on the BCA’s website: http://www.bca.gov.sg.
13
20%. The weightage system, which is a compromise between the cost
10
Oakland and Marosszeky (2005) report that property developers have proportions of the three components in the various buildings and their
used the CONQUAS score to drive improvement and to differentiate aesthetic consideration, is aimed at making the CONQUAS score objective in
themselves from their competitors. representing the quality of a building.
130 J.T.L. Ooi et al. / Journal of Housing Economics 26 (2014) 126–138

Table 1
Descriptive statistics of CONQUAS scores by project characteristics.

Mean Median Std. deviation Minimum Maximum No. of projects


All projects 83.4 82.5 6.1 62.5 96.2 205
By completion year
1998–2001 78.9 79.6 4.0 67.4 86.5 61
2002–2005 82.4 82.1 5.3 62.5 94.1 60
2006–2010 87.3 87.8 5.5 69.0 96.2 84
By land tenure
Freehold 84.7 84.8 5.7 69.0 96.2 103
Leasehold 82.0 81.3 6.3 62.5 94.8 102
By project size
<200 units 83.4 83.5 6.7 62.5 94.8 73
201–500 units 83.1 82.5 5.9 69.0 96.2 92
>500 units 83.8 82.5 5.8 69.1 95.6 40
By location
Prime location 85.8 86.6 5.9 72.6 94.8 66
Non-prime location 82.2 81.8 5.9 62.5 96.2 139

This table presents the descriptive statistics of the CONQUAS scores of 205 private residential developments completed in Singapore between 1998 and
2010. The scores shown below are in percentage terms and the highest score a development can get is 100%.

The CONQUAS score for a building is the sum of points


awarded to the three components. Based on a maximum
score of 100%, a score of 80 means 80% of the items checked
for workmanship quality met the CONQUAS standards. Thus,
a building that achieves a higher score is better constructed,
in terms of workmanship quality, than a building with a
lower score. The assessment standards are fine-tuned peri-
odically and the last major revision carried out in 1998 when
CONQUAS 21 was launched. For consistency, this marks the
beginning of our sample period.
In total, we managed to collect the CONQUAS scores of
205 new residential projects that were completed between
1998 and 2010. Table 1 reports the descriptive statistics of
the CONQUAS scores for the full sample as well as sub- Fig. 1. Number of developments and their average CONQUAS scores,
samples, which are partitioned according to the land ten- 1998–2010. This figure plots the number of new private residential
ure, year of completion, and size of developments. The projects completed annually between 1998 and 2010 (right axis). The
average project in the sample has a score of 83.4.14 We scores shown on the left axis are the average scores of the projects
completed in each year.
see an obvious rising trend over the study period, with the
average score improving from 78.9 during 1998–2001 to
87.3 during 2006–2010. This trend is confirmed in Fig. 1,
which plots the number of residential projects completed
to 99 years in Singapore. For the purpose of our study, res-
annually between 1998 and 2010 and the average CONQUAS
idential developments with longer lease tenure of 999-
scores of all projects completed in each year over the study
years are classified as freehold properties. Table 1 illus-
period. The rising trend indicates that construction quality
trates that the construction quality of the average freehold
of new private housing projects has, on average, improved
project is 270 basis points higher than the average lease-
over time, possibly due to a shift in demand for good con-
hold project with the difference being statistically signifi-
struction quality by homebuyers, or due to the developers
cant at the 1% level. In addition, the CONQUAS scores are
and contractors becoming more familiar with the CONQUAS
significantly higher for residential projects in planning dis-
assessment criterion.
tricts 1–4, and 9–11, which are traditionally regarded as
In Singapore, residential properties can be built on land
the prime residential locations in Singapore (see Fig. 2).
with either a freehold or leasehold tenure. Freehold prop-
There is, however, no significant difference in the CON-
erties are usually more expensive because the land is
QUAS scores for huge and small development projects.
owned by the owners in perpetuity. The tenure of lease-
hold properties, on the other hand, is limited, commonly
4. Construction quality and house prices
14
The top three developments ranked by CONQUAS scores in our sample
are: The Arte (96.2), The Cascadia (95.6) and City Squares Residence (95.6).
In this section, we examine the impact of good con-
At the other end, the bottom three developments are: The Trumps (62.5), struction quality on the sale prices of new homes. To
Hilltop Grove (67.4) and Starville (69.0). explore how construction quality affects property values,
J.T.L. Ooi et al. / Journal of Housing Economics 26 (2014) 126–138 131

Fig. 2. Location map of sampled projects. This figure plots the locations of the 205 sampled private residential developments in relation to the Central
Business District (CBD), which is outlined in red, and the planning districts, which are numbered from 1 to 28. The prime residential areas in Singapore are
located in districts 1–4, and 9–11. (For interpretation of the references to colour in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)

we begin by estimating a standard hedonic price model For each of the developments in our sample, we also mea-
with an additional variable measuring the construction sure the distance to the Central Business District (CBD)
quality score. In general, the price model is and the closest subway station. The greatest distance to a
subway station is only 6.6 km. Similarly, the development
Pi ¼ Pxi þ mi ; ð1Þ farthest away from the CBD is only 17.9 km.
where Pi is the natural log of the real selling price of the ith Presale transactions refer to units sold by the home-
property, xi is a vector of explanatory variables containing builders to the first buyers prior to the physical comple-
physical and location characteristics, development specific tion of the development.16 Sub-sale transactions refer to
attributes, and the construction quality score. The error the first buyers (who purchased their unit from the
term, mi is assumed to be normally distributed with mean developer) selling the uncompleted units to third parties.
zero and variance r2v . Notably, 55% and 12% of the sale transactions occurred in
Our sample for the hedonic regressions comprises the presale and sub-sale markets where the new housing
100,593 sale transactions in the 205 developments sold units have not been physically completed. The balance
between 1998 and 2011. The data on the sale price, con- 33% of the sample is resale transactions which involved
tract date, and floor area for each unit sold are obtained owners selling their physically completed units in the
from Real Estate Information System (REALIS), a data set secondary market. To control for sales in the presale and
maintained by Singapore’s national land use planning sub-sale markets, we incorporate two additional variables
authority, the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA). in the regression models, namely NEWSALE and SUBSALE,
The transaction price is the agreed purchase price of the representing sale of uncompleted new housing by home-
property, and excludes stamp duties, legal and agency fees, builders, and resale by the original buyers prior to the
and other professional fees. The prices are then adjusted project completion.
using the property price index to 1998. Table 2 defines The estimation results are presented in Table 3. In
and presents the descriptive statistics of the variables used Model 2, we control for time-varying effects by including
in the empirical model for the entire sample. Monetary val- a set of dummy variables for transaction year as well as
ues are expressed in Singapore dollars throughout. The unobserved fixed-effects associated with the homebuilder
average unit in our sample was sold at slightly above S$1 and location.17 Overall, the estimates in the model are sig-
million and has a floor area of 122.4 m2 (1317 ft2). About nificant with the models explaining more than 78% and
37% of the sampled units are built on freehold or 999-year 90% of the price variations in Model 1 and Model 2, respec-
leasehold land, as opposed to 63% being built on 99-year tively. All the explanatory variables behave as expected. The
leasehold land. Signifying the popularity of condominiums effect of living AREA and floor LEVEL on sales price is positive
in Singapore, 85% of the sale transactions involved condo- and robust across subsamples. Developments on freehold
minium units.15 Singapore occupies a small physical area. sites command a significant price premium, whilst age has
a negative impact on sale price. As expected, the distance
15
The term ‘‘condominium’’, as used in the Singapore context, is a
16
planning term which refers to residential projects developed on sites of at The dominance of the presale market is consistent with the practice of
least 40,000 sq ft, and the residents share the communal facilities. It is not selling new condominiums before their completion in Asia, such as China,
to be confused with the legal term used in the US, which refers to strata Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, South Korea, and Malaysia (see Munneke
title ownership of multi-family apartments where the land and common et al., 2011). It is noted that built-to-suit is not an option for multi-family
areas are co-owned by all the homeowners. Thus, non-condominium developments.
17
projects (i.e. residential projects developed on sites smaller than 40,000 sq The set of binary variables can usefully proxy unmeasurable attributes
ft in which the residents still share the communal facilities) can still be sold of the planning sectors and homebuilders that affect house prices, such as
in Singapore. perception on the developers’ goodwill and reputation.
132 J.T.L. Ooi et al. / Journal of Housing Economics 26 (2014) 126–138

Table 2
Descriptive statistics of sample.

Variable Definition Mean Std. dev. Min Max


PRICE Transaction price 1,086,317 987,611 107,000 30,000,000
AREA Floor area of unit (m2) 122.35 43.35 26.00 1023.00
AREA_SQ Squared floor area of unit 16,848 18,310 676 1,046,529
FLOOR Floor level of unit 9.99 8.65 1.00 69.00
FLOOR_SQ Squared floor level of unit 174.54 352.70 1.00 4761.00
FH Binary variable for freehold unit 0.37 0.48 0.00 1.00
CONDO Binary variable for condominium unit 0.85 0.35 0.00 1.00
AGE No. of years between sale and completion 1.78 3.15 0.00 14.00
CBD Distance from CBD (km) 9.06 4.90 0.37 17.91
MRT Distance from MRT (km) 1.38 1.16 0.06 6.52
NEWSALE Binary variable for new sale transaction 0.55 0.50 0.00 1.00
SUBSALE Binary variable for sub sale transaction 0.12 0.32 0.00 1.00
CONQUAS CONQUAS scores 83.30 5.96 62.50 96.20

This table presents the definition and sample statistics of the dependent and explanatory variables in the empirical models. The descriptive statistics are
based on the final sample of 100,593 sale transactions between 1995 and 2011.

Table 3
Estimation results on the impact of construction quality.

Model 1 Model 2 Model 3


Constant 12.10*** 12.26*** 12.72***
(679.2) (557.1) (682.4)
AREA 0.0106*** 0.00966*** 0.00966***
(70.68) (50.14) (50.23)
AREA_SQ 9.25e06*** 9.51e06*** 9.50e06***
(21.44) (16.88) (16.90)
LEVEL 0.00408*** 0.00527*** 0.00532***
(18.29) (27.34) (27.66)
LEVEL_SQ 4.55e05*** 3.04e06 8.78e07
(7.592) (0.549) (0.159)
FH 0.176*** 0.126*** 0.126***
(106.4) (81.02) (81.32)
CONDO 0.0133*** 0.0482*** 0.0542***
(5.014) (22.16) (25.31)
AGE 0.0132*** 0.0207*** 0.0253***
(36.67) (64.31) (87.03)
CBD 0.0403*** 0.0321*** 0.0309***
(227.8) (52.40) (50.57)
MRT 0.00239*** 0.00728*** 0.00921***
(3.890) (13.21) (16.71)
NEWSALE 0.0228*** 0.0156*** 0.00365*
(8.658) (8.186) (1.912)
SUBSALE 0.0329*** 0.0245*** 0.0199***
(9.483) (10.51) (8.496)
CONQUAS 0.00493*** 0.00544*** 0.00438***
(33.22) (38.20) (28.90)
Year dummy No Yes Yes
Location dummy No Yes Yes
Homebuilder dummy No Yes Yes
Observations 100,593 100,593 100,593
Adjusted R-squared 0.789 0.906 0.906

This table presents the OLS estimation results with 1998 market-adjusted price as the dependent variable. In Model 1 and Model 2, the original CONQUAS
scores are used. Model 3 uses the orthogonalized CONQUAS scores (which involves regressing the original scores against the development and market
characteristics and using the residuals as the proxy for construction quality). White’s heteroscedastic robust t-statistic standard errors are reported in
parenthesis.
***
Represents significance at the 1.0% level.
*
Represents significance at the 10.0% level.

to CBD coefficient is negative and significant in all the externality from pedestrian congestion, noise, or other neg-
models. The distance to metro station coefficient, however, ative externalities from a metro station is stronger than the
is positive and significant, which suggests that the negative countervailing positive externality of easy access to mass
J.T.L. Ooi et al. / Journal of Housing Economics 26 (2014) 126–138 133

Table 4
Correlation of project characteristics with CONQUAS scores.

PRICE AREA FLOOR FH CONDO AGE CBD MRT CONQUAS


PRICE 1
AREA 0.6297 1
FLOOR 0.2375 0.0163 1
FH 0.3688 0.1636 0.0548 1
CONDO 0.0403 0.1401 0.1720 0.1411 1
AGE 0.0008 0.0192 0.1008 0.1390 0.0013 1
CBD 0.5002 0.0489 0.3518 0.1822 0.1478 0.1495 1
MRT 0.0648 0.0735 0.2460 0.0724 0.0102 0.0577 0.1968 1
CONQUAS 0.3091 0.0149 0.2938 0.1631 0.0160 0.2502 0.4288 0.1603 1
CONQUAS# 0.0734 0.0378 0.0468 0.0136 0.0197 0.0357 0.0378 0.0685 0.6157

This table presents the pair-wise correlation coefficient between CONQUAS scores and the other explanatory variables in the empirical model based on the
final sample of 100,593 observations. The definition of the variables is presented earlier in Table 2. CONQUAS# represent the orthogonalized CONQUAS
scores, which are the residuals from regressing the actual CONQUAS scores against the development’s characteristics.

transportation (see Munneke et al., 2011).18 The underlying properties tend to have higher construction quality.
performance of the real estate market also has a strong Development height and distance to CBD also have signif-
impact on transaction prices. icant relationship with construction quality. To mitigate
Our main variable of interest is construction quality, the potential bias, we orthogonalize the CONQUAS scores
which is instrumented by the project’s CONQUAS score. If by regressing the actual CONQUAS scores against a set of
construction quality is capitalized into house prices, then development characteristics, namely size, tenure, develop-
we would see a significant relationship between the CON- ment height and a set of fixed effects for planning districts
QUAS score and price. The regression results indeed show and time, and employing the residuals (which are then not
that homes with higher CONQUAS score command a related to the explanatory variables) as a proxy for con-
higher price, all else equal. Economically, the magnitude struction quality. The regression results, presented under
of the coefficient indicates an increase of 0.49% in the sell- Model 3 that applies the orthogonalized CONQUAS, are
ing price for each additional CONQUAS score. In other consistent with our earlier conclusion regarding the rela-
words, a one standard deviation increase in the CONQUAS tionships of the explanatory variables and sale price.
score would result in the average apartment in our sample In Table 5, we further substitute the overall CONQUAS
selling for 2.92% higher, or S$31,720 more. For a large pro- score with the value of the respective components, namely
ject with 500 units, the overall increase in the sales reve- structural, architectural, and M&E scores.20 The estimation
nue arising from one standard deviation improvement in results show that coefficient for each component score is
the CONQUAS score would be around S$ 15.9 million. positive and statistically significant. Overall, the observed
While it may be argued that the observed premium may positive relationship between sale price and construction
be related to either the developer’s reputation (Chau quality is robust to alternative proxies used to measure
et al., 2007),19 it should be noted that the coefficient for the quality of construction.
CONQUAS continues to be significant after controlling for To examine the impact of construction quality in the
unobserved fixed-effects associated with individual home- different sub-markets, we also run separate regressions
builders in Model 2. for transactions in the resale, sub-sale and presale housing
Table 4 reports the pairwise correlation matrix between markets. While the estimation results, as tabulated in
CONQUAS scores and various attributes of the residential Table 6, show that the relationship between house price
project. Consistent with regression results reported earlier, and construction quality is robust, they also reveal several
we see a significant positive relationship between the implications on the relationship between house price and
CONQUAS scores and average selling price of the project. construction. First, concerns over the quality of workman-
However, the CONQUAS scores are also correlated with ship and construction defects are expected to be more
various attributes of the development and market. For pressing in the presale and sub-sale markets where dwell-
example, we observe that expensive and freehold ing units are purchased prior to their physical completion.
Chau et al. (2007), for example, contend that housing units
18
sold under a presale system suffer from the risk of having
The results are robust to measuring the distance to MTA and CBD in
lower quality than intended in the initial contract because
natural logarithm to account for non-linearity. As suggested by a referee,
the positive sign on MTA could be less indicative of characteristics of the homebuilders, having received payment for the unfinished
metro station than to those of the street under which the MTA lies. In units, have incentives to increase their profit by cutting
particular, MTA was planned to improve access to certain neighborhood, construction costs. Ong (1997) also postulates that build-
and there is some path dependence of passenger rail lines to pre-existing ing defects are accentuated by the practice of homebuild-
road system. Nevertheless, 36 out of the 53 MTA stations on the two service
lines in Singapore are located above ground.
19 20
Comparing two residential developments in Hong Kong that are similar For this procedure, 593 transactions had to be omitted because the
in most aspects except for their developers, Chau et al. (2007) find that the disaggregated CONQUAS scores of a development, namely Glendale Park,
project built by the more reputable homebuilder commanded a 6.4% are not available. The regression results are not sensitive to the omission of
premium, which persisted even after the completion of both projects. this development.
134 J.T.L. Ooi et al. / Journal of Housing Economics 26 (2014) 126–138

Table 5
Estimation results with alternative measures of construction quality.

Model 4 Model 5 Model 6


Constant 13.05*** 13.03*** 13.03***
(851.2) (860.7) (860.7)
AREA 0.00967*** 0.00968*** 0.00966***
(50.22) (50.12) (50.32)
AREA_SQ 9.50e06*** 9.52e06*** 9.47e06***
(16.89) (16.88) (16.90)
LEVEL 0.00547*** 0.00536*** 0.00528***
(28.35) (27.79) (27.46)
LEVEL_SQ 2.79e06 1.53e06 2.26e06
(0.504) (0.276) (0.410)
FH 0.128*** 0.121*** 0.126***
(79.58) (75.69) (78.97)
CONDO 0.0586*** 0.0530*** 0.0590***
(27.67) (24.39) (27.66)
AGE 0.0254*** 0.0254*** 0.0255***
(86.21) (87.14) (87.41)
CBD 0.0288*** 0.0319*** 0.0316***
(46.87) (51.52) (51.82)
MRT 0.00804*** 0.00971*** 0.00951***
(14.66) (17.61) (17.36)
NEWSALE 0.00255 0.00334* 0.00325*
(1.327) (1.740) (1.690)
SUBSALE 0.0185*** 0.0193*** 0.0199***
(7.855) (8.213) (8.419)
STRUCTURAL 0.00284***
(22.39)
ARCHITECTURAL 0.00282***
(24.49)
M&E 0.00221***
(28.31)
Year dummy Yes Yes Yes
Location dummy Yes Yes Yes
Homebuilder dummy Yes Yes Yes
Observations 100,000 100,000 100,000
Adjusted R-squared 0.906 0.906 0.906

This table presents the OLS estimation results with 1998 market-adjusted price as the dependent variable. In Model 4, Model 5 and Model 6, the overall
CONQUAS score for each project is replaced by the three sub-components, namely structural, architectural and M&E works, respectively. White’s het-
eroscedastic robust t-statistic standard errors are reported in parenthesis.
***
Represents significance at the 1.0% level.
*
Represents significance at the 10.0% level.

ers marketing their projects prior to the completion of con- the presale sample using a two-stage regression: In the first
struction. Thus, all else being equal, one would expect a stage, a predicted CONQUAS score is derived for each project
lower premium attached to construction quality for homes in our sample using the score achieved for previous projects
that are sold before their physical completion. Model 9 in by the same developer.22 The predicted scores are then used
Table 6 indeed shows that buyers in the presale market as an instrument variable for construction quality in the sec-
are likely to discount the premium for construction quality. ond stage regression.
Second, while the possibility that house prices may The estimation results of the second stage regression
influence CONQUAS scores in the presale market cannot are presented in the last column (Model 10) of Table 6.
be discounted,21 the fact that the coefficient for CONQUAS The results are consistently positive, indicating that con-
remains positive and statistically significant in the sample struction quality is an important determinant of selling
using only resale transactions shows that the positive pre- prices in the presale market. The evidence also indicates
mium attached to construction quality still persists after that a developer’s commitment to quality construction in
controlling for the potential endogenous variable. Moreover, a current project can be predicted from his previous pro-
to account for the predictability of the construction quality jects. In sum, the regression results suggest that developers
of homes under construction, we re-estimate the model for can extract a price premium directly on quality homes, and
indirectly by gaining good reputation through a sequence
of consistently high quality projects.
21
Highlighting that maintenance may be endogenous to house value,
Harding et al. (2007) argue that ‘‘it is likely that owners of expensive homes
will spend more on home maintenance than owners of inexpensive homes. As
22
such, one cannot simply put maintenance into a standard ordinary lease The results of the first stage regression are not reported because they
squares hedonic regression of house value.’’ (p. 196). are essentially similar to the correlation matrix (Table 4).
J.T.L. Ooi et al. / Journal of Housing Economics 26 (2014) 126–138 135

Table 6
Estimation results on the impact of construction quality (by sub-markets).

Model 7 Model 8 Model 9 Model 10


OLS OLS OLS IV
Constant 12.73*** 12.19*** 12.98*** 12.47***
(378.6) (196.5) (482.6) (211.3)
AREA 0.00895*** 0.0105*** 0.00976*** 0.00974***
(31.39) (43.91) (27.94) (28.32)
AREA_SQ 9.02e06*** 1.01e05*** 9.64e06*** 9.29e06***
(10.70) (14.90) (9.382) (9.306)
LEVEL 0.00504*** 0.00558*** 0.00739*** 0.00642***
(16.24) (12.47) (27.29) (22.37)
LEVEL_SQ 7.63e06 1.23e05 4.92e05*** 3.41e05***
(0.771) (1.323) (6.301) (4.255)
FH 0.111*** 0.0647*** 0.160*** 0.149***
(37.50) (11.87) (80.78) (62.72)
CONDO 0.0438*** 0.0486*** 0.0672*** 0.0847***
(11.53) (8.825) (22.99) (20.56)
AGE 0.0215***
(56.82)
CBD 0.0384*** 0.0252*** 0.0286*** 0.0274***
(34.05) (12.10) (38.21) (32.80)
MRT 0.0156*** 0.0126*** 0.0112*** 0.0137***
(10.42) (4.063) (15.59) (15.38)
CONQUAS 0.00692*** 0.00607*** 0.00362*** 0.00224***
(25.45) (12.09) (19.31) (3.831)
Year dummy Yes Yes Yes Yes
Location dummy Yes Yes Yes Yes
Homebuilder dummy Yes Yes Yes Yes
Sub-market Resale Sub-sale Presale Presale
Observations 33,499 11,767 55,327 42,081
Adjusted R-squared 0.909 0.935 0.914 0.921

Models 7, 8 and 9 report the OLS regression results for the sub-samples of resale, sub-sale, and new sale, respectively. In the first three models, the original
scores are regressed against the development and market characteristics and the residuals are then used as the proxy for construction quality. Model 10
reports the IV estimation result for the sub-sample of new sales. The fitted values of CONQUAS in Model 10 are derived from the following equation
CONQUASi,di,i = b CONQUASj,d,t–k + e + x, where CONQUASi,d,t is the CONQUAS score of project i by homebuilder d completed in quarter t; CONQUASj,p,t–k is the
CONQUAS score of project j by the same homebuilder d completed in quarter t–k (k P 1, and k is the smallest possible number, such that j is the immediate
project preceding i); e is a set of fixed effect for developer. Note that the number of projects is reduced to 160 projects because projects of the same
homebuilders and completed in the same quarter are filtered out. White’s heteroscedastic robust t-statistic standard errors are reported in parenthesis.
***
Represents significance at the 1.0% level.

Although the premium attached to good construction determinants of house price inflation over time. An advan-
quality exists in all the sub-markets, Table 6 shows that tage of using the repeat sales approach is that it removes
the premium is highest in the resale market. This interest- any potential bias from unobserved apartment or neigh-
ing result suggests that buyers who pay more for quality borhood characteristics that remain unchanged over time.
homes in the presale market can recoup the premium Specifically, the log-price change between two sale dates is
when they sell the units subsequently in the secondary regressed on the property’s CONQUAS scores and a set of
market. To probe this further, we examine whether there control variables suggested by prior literature:
is any significant difference in the investment performance    
of good construction quality homes. This line of enquiry is Ptþi Mkttþi 2
ln  ln ¼ a þ bi þ ci þ dPRIME
consistent with prior studies which found that houses do pt Mktt
not appreciate at the same rate due to their property attri- þ lCONQUAS þ cPRESALE þ e ð2Þ
butes, such as age, type and location (Smith and Tesarek,
1991; Archer et al., 1996; Smith and Ho, 1996; Clapp and where pt and pt+i are the transacted prices at time t and t + i
Giaccotto, 1998; Coulson and Lahr, 2005; Harding et al., respectively, and Mktt and Mktt+i are the market price indi-
2007; Bourassa et al., 2009; Ferreira and Gyourko, 2012). ces at the corresponding time period. Thus, the dependent
variable in Eq. (2) is the difference between the price
change of a resale unit and the average price change in
5. Construction quality and capital appreciation the market. We also include the number of quarters
between the two sales, i, which captures age-related
We employ a generalized version of the standard depreciation, as well as its square term to reflect the fact
repeat-sales model to estimate the house price apprecia- that houses depreciate at a non-linear rate (see Shilling
tion for each pair of repeat sales in our sample. Archer et al., 1991; Lee et al., 2005). The binary variable PRIME is
et al. (1996), Harding et al. (2007) and Bourassa et al. defined as units that are located in the prime residential
(2009) employ a similar methodology to examine the district. Finally, we incorporate PRESALE which is a binary
136 J.T.L. Ooi et al. / Journal of Housing Economics 26 (2014) 126–138

Table 7
Descriptive statistics of repeat sales sample.

Variable Definition Mean Std. dev. Min Max


RETURN_PA Market-adjusted house price change (annualized) 0.03 0.16 0.80 4.15
i Number of quarters between the two sales 19.62 14.21 0.00 63.00
PRIME Binary variable for unit in prime residential location 0.15 0.35 0.00 1.00
PRESALE Binary variable for pairs of repeat sales in which the first sale involves a presale transaction 0.66 0.47 0.00 1.00
CONQUAS CONQUAS score 82.89 5.52 67.40 95.60

This table reports the descriptive statistics for 23,843 pairs of repeat sales between 1998 and 2010. The holding period return for each pair is calculated as
the percentage price changes between the first sale and the second sale, after adjusting for changes in the house price index over the corresponding period.
Note that for the regression models, the holding period real returns are utilized. However, for reporting purpose, we report the annualized appreciation rate
for ease of interpretation.

variable, representing pairs of repeat sales in which the during the property boom in 2007. In particular, some
first sale involves a presale transaction. This will allow us houses were quickly turned over with nominal price
to monitor whether investors earn superior returns by increases of 30–60% within 3–6 months.27
buying new houses from homebuilders, or by buying exist- The regression results are presented in Table 8. The first
ing properties in the secondary market. To the extent that two models are run on the full sample of repeat sales using
homebuilders time their new project launches to take original (Model 11) and orthogonalized (Model 12) CON-
advantage of hot sentiment in the property market, we QUAS scores as proxies for quality. All the control variables
expect the appreciation rate to be lower for PRESALE also behaved as expected. For example the coefficient of
properties.23 age-related depreciation, as instrumented by the time
We are primarily interested in the coefficient l of CON- between two sales, is negative, indicating that depreciation
QUAS, with the null hypothesis that the appreciation rates dampens price growth at a decreasing rate. Location also
of dwelling units are invariant with respect to construction appears to be an important determinant of house price
quality of the new homes; that is, prices of good quality appreciation, as evidenced by the significant positive coef-
homes will move in tandem with the overall market.24 In ficient for PRIME. Specifically, prices of houses located in
total, 23,843 pairs of repeat sales were identified over the the prime residential districts rose faster than an otherwise
sample period with each pair representing two consecutive similar property in non-prime districts. We also observe
sales of the same property. that houses bought directly from the homebuilders offer
Table 7 presents the summary statistics for our sample a lower return to investors as compared to existing houses
of repeat sales. About 15% of the sample is located in prime that are bought in the secondary market. The lower return
residential areas. For those who resold their houses, the is consistent with the notion that homebuilders, due to
average holding period is approximately 5 years.25 The superior information or stronger market power, are price
average market-adjusted capital appreciation of resale leaders in the housing market (Glaeser et al. (2008) and
homes in our sample is 3% per annum, which is higher than Ooi and Le (2012, 2013).28
the 7% registered by the aggregate housing market over the Focusing on the contribution of construction quality, we
corresponding period.26 It should be noted that the mean find positive and statistically significant coefficients for
figures are skewed by a few observations that occurred CONQUAS, indicating that good construction quality
homes registered higher capital appreciation, after control-
23
An alternative specification is to include the market average price
ling for market condition, age and location of the proper-
changes on the right-hand side of Eq. (2). The regression results are ties. The magnitude of the coefficient implies that for
consistent. every one point increase in the CONQUAS score, the capital
24
Smith and Ho (1996) contend that in the long run, demand shocks appreciation of an average apartment over a five-year
trigger supply responses such that long-run real prices vary along the long-
holding period would be $5279 more than the average
run supply curve. They argue that unless supply constraints (such as land
use controls, building codes, and zoning regulations), or technological appreciation of the whole market over the same period. A
innovation (such as systems building or increased prefabrication) system- one standard deviation increase in CONQUAS score of
atically favor one stratum of housing and thus generate differently sloped 5.52, therefore, can improve the price appreciation of the
long-run supply curves for different valued housing, relative long-run real average apartment by $29,143 over its holding period,
prices will be invariant with respect to value.
25 which is typically 5 years. Overall, the relative investment
This is consistent with Harding et al. (2007) estimates of just below
6 years for US homeowners’ time in the home. They also find the median returns of houses with different construction quality indi-
time between sales dates in their sample of 6841 repeat sales is 5 years. cate a growing demand for houses with high workmanship
Splitting our sample into two sub-samples according to whether the quality.
property was brought directly from the developer in the primary market or
from the original buyer in the secondary market, we interestingly observe
27
that the average holding period of units in the first category is 5.9 years, as Our regression results are robust to the exclusion of these 82
compared to only 3.1 years for units in the second category. observations.
26 28
The nominal annual capital appreciation of resale homes in our sample Examining the spillover effects of infill developments on local housing
is 10%, which is 3 percentage points higher than the 7% registered by the prices, Ooi and Le (2013) find a contagion effect which could be traced to
aggregate housing market over the corresponding period. As noted by developers overpricing the new homes by 4.8% on average. In contrast, the
Hendershott and Hu (1981), housing ownership is very much a leveraged resale housing market is dominated by ‘‘amateurs’’, who trades infre-
investment, and as such, can lead to higher rates of return than the quently and have less up-to-date information (see also Glaeser and
appreciation rates presented here. See also Pollakowski et al. (1991). Nathanson, 2014).
J.T.L. Ooi et al. / Journal of Housing Economics 26 (2014) 126–138 137

Table 8
The effect of construction quality on house price appreciation.

Model 11 Model 12 Model 13 Model 14


Constant 0.276*** 0.132*** 0.167*** 0.0642***
(15.88) (53.34) (35.16) (13.03)
i 0.00858*** 0.00927*** 0.0116*** 0.00288***
(34.12) (36.76) (20.91) (5.774)
i2 8.48e05*** 8.68e05*** 0.000123*** 2.51e06
(18.82) (19.11) (11.48) (0.265)
PRIME 0.0373*** 0.0478*** 0.0568*** 0.0368***
(11.79) (15.52) (3.800) (8.599)
PRESALE 0.0374*** 0.0296*** 0.0514*** 0.00561
(15.67) (12.43) (10.82) (1.285)
CONQUAS 0.00486*** 0.00260*** 0.00135** 0.00680***
(23.91) (8.889) (2.423) (11.80)
Sample All sales All sales Least expensive Most expensive
Observations 23,843 23,843 6448 5750
R-squared 0.236 0.219 0.246 0.10

Model 11 and Model 12 report the OLS regression for the full sample of repeat sales. Model 13 and Model 14 present the regression results for two sub-
samples of ‘‘least expensive’’ and ‘‘most expensive’’ homes, which represent the bottom and top 25% of all the resale homes. In all the models, the dependent
variable is the log-price change of the house over the two sales dates, adjusted for market returns over the corresponding period. The right-hand side
variables are the number of quarters between the two sales (i), the number of quarters between the two sales squared (i2), a binary variable for units located
in prime residential districts (PRIME), and construction quality (CONQUAS). In Model 11, the original CONQUAS scores are employed. In Models 12, 13 and
14, the orthogonal CONQUAS scores are employed. This involves regressing the original scores against the development and market characteristics and
using the residuals as the proxy for construction quality. White’s heteroscedastic robust t-statistic standard errors are reported in parenthesis.
**
Represents significance at the 5.0% level.
***
Represents significance at the 1.0% level.

The housing literature has also recorded differences in results also clearly suggest that the prices of houses that
the appreciation rates of high and lower value homes are well constructed in the beginning appreciate at a sig-
(see Smith and Ho, 1996; Smith and Tesarek, 1991). We nificantly higher rate than the prices for average quality
therefore turn our attention on the impact of construction house in the market. This is also empirically supported
quality on house price appreciation for two sub-samples of by our findings that the CONQUAS premium is highest in
‘‘least expensive’’ and ‘‘most expensive’’ houses, which is the resale market. Interestingly, we also observe that
defined as homes in bottom 25 percentile and top 25 per- homebuyers in the presale and sub-sale markets are will-
centile based on their original sale price, respectively. The ing to pay for good construction quality even before the
results, which are reported in Table 8 under Model 13 and project’s completion.
Model 14, show that our earlier results are robust. More The combined results appear to suggest that although
importantly, the positive impact of construction quality houses with good workmanship cost more to homebuyers,
on price appreciation can still be seen in both sub-samples. they also offer higher prospective returns in terms of cap-
Comparing the relative magnitude of the CONQUAS coeffi- ital appreciation to the investors. The significant premium
cients in the two models, the effect of construction quality and price appreciation associated with construction qual-
is three times bigger for the sub-sample of ‘‘most expen- ity also imply that the housing market may not need gov-
sive’’ houses. This implies that the marginal effect of ernment intervention to encourage the developers to build
improvements in construction quality on the rate of house better housing. However, data on construction and mainte-
price appreciation is larger for more expensive properties. nance cost are needed to empirically determine the elastic-
ity of each effect.

6. Conclusion
References
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