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In-Class Assignment Chapter 3 Forecasting (Version 2)
In-Class Assignment Chapter 3 Forecasting (Version 2)
Month Sales (000 units) (a) Plot the monthly data on a sheet of graph paper.
Feb 19 (b) Forecast september sales volume using each of the following:
Mar 18 (1) The naïve approach
Apr 15 (2) A five month moving average
May 20 (3) A weighted average using 0,60 for august, 0,30 for july, and 0,10 for ju
Jun 18 (4) Exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant equal to 0,20 assum
Jul 22 a March forecast of 19(000)
Aug 20 (5) A Linear trend equation
(c) Which method seems least appropriate? Why? (hint: refer to your plot fro
(d) What does use of the term sales rather than demand presume?
a) b) NAIVE METHOD
Sales (000 units) Month
25 Feb
Mar
20 Apr
May
15 Jun
Jul
10 Aug
Sep
5
0
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHI
Month
c) yang kurang tepat adalah trend equation, karena ketika kita plot Feb
datanya, variasi di sekitar average tidak ada trend. Mar
Apr
d) karena akan di forecast dalam soal ini adalah berapa yang terjual May
perbulannya, atau berapa sales perbulan, sehingga yang digunakan Jun
adalah sales. Jul
Aug
Sep
period were as follows:
0
Feb Mar Apr May
GHTED MOVING AVERAGE
Sales (000 units)
19
18
15
20
18
22
20
20.4
22
20 20
571428571429
18
15
Month Units Sold Index (a) Plot the data. Does there seem to be a trend?
Jan 640 0.80 (b) Deseasonalize car sales
Feb 648 0.80 (c) Plot the deseasonalized data on the same graph as the original data.
Mar 630 0.70 comment on the two graphs.
Apr 761 0.94 (d) Assuming no proactive approach on the part of management,
May 735 0.89 discuss (no calculations necessary) how you would forecast sales for
Jun 850 1.00 the first three months of the next year.
Jul 765 0.90 (e) What action might management consider based on your findings in part b
Aug 805 1.15
Sep 840 1.20
Oct 828 1.20
Nov 840 1.25
Dec 800 1.25
a) Units Sold b)
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
c) d)
Deseasonalized
Sales
1200.00
1000.00
800.00
600.00
400.00
200.00
0.00
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
grafik - grafik diatas dapat dilihat sebelum melakukan deseasonalized sales
terlihat tidak terlalu berfluktuasi, tetapi yang sudah mengalami
deseasonalized terlihat lebih berfluktuasi.
al distributor.
art of management,
u would forecast sales for
Quarter Deseasonalized
Periode Quarter Units Slold Relative Sales
Jan 1 640 1.20 533.33
Feb 2 648 1.10 589.09
Mar 3 630 0.75 840.00
Apr 4 761 0.95 801.05
May 1 735 1.20 612.50
Jun 2 850 1.10 772.73
Jul 3 765 0.75 1020.00
Aug 4 805 0.95 847.37
Sep 1 840 1.20 700.00
Oct 2 828 1.10 752.73
Nov 3 840 0.75 1120.00
Dec 4 800 0.95 842.11
20
0
10 15 20 25 30 35 40
b) Observation x y
1 15 74
2 25 80
3 40 84
4 32 81
5 51 96
6 47 95
7 30 83
8 18 78
9 14 70
10 15 72
11 22 85
12 24 88
13 33 90
95 96
6739527 x + 66.3333333333333
90
88
85 83 81 84
80
25 30 35 40 45 50 55