CHAPTER 4

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

OVERVIEW

The chapter begins with a detailed description of the

data acquisition and preparation process. It outlines the

specific geospatial data sources utilized, such as

satellite imagery, digital elevation models (DEMs),

hydrological data, and land cover information. The

preprocessing steps involved in cleaning, aligning, and

preparing the data for analysis are explained. Next, the

chapter delves into the GIS analysis techniques employed

for hydropower potential assessment in Lake Sebu. It

discusses the application of watershed delineation methods,

stream network extraction, and the analysis of terrain

characteristics like slope, elevation, and flow

accumulation. The criteria used for site selection are also

outlined, encompassing considerations such as water

availability, topography, infrastructure proximity, and

environmental factors. The chapter highlights the

generation of hydropower potential maps using GIS. It

explains the visualization techniques and symbology

employed to depict areas with varying levels of suitability

for hydropower development in Lake Sebu. The results of the

GIS analysis are presented, along with interpretations and

discussions of the findings, emphasizing the identification

of high-potential areas for hydropower generation.

4.1 Data Acquisition and Preparation

Digital Elevation Models (DEMs)(As shown in figure

4.1.a) provide essential elevation data for the study area,

aiding in the identification of suitable sites for

hydropower development based on terrain characteristics

such as slope, aspect, and elevation. Flow direction and

strahler order data, depict the flow paths, connectivity of

rivers and streams and the natural direction of water flow

within a watershed or river network. This data facilitates

the identification of potential locations for small-scale

hydropower installations by analyzing stream

characteristics such as flow volume, gradient, and stream

order. Rainfall data is crucial for assessing water

availability and flow patterns, enabling an understanding

of the temporal and spatial distribution of precipitation,

which directly influences hydropower potential. Land

use/land cover data provides information on various land

cover classes within the study area, including forests,

agriculture, urban areas, and water bodies. This data is

instrumental in assessing the environmental impact of

hydropower development and identifying potential conflicts

with protected areas or sensitive ecosystems. Lastly the

hydrologic soil group map it is a critical input in

watershed modeling, which simulates the hydrological

processes within a watershed. By assigning soil types to

different hydrologic soil groups, the model can estimate

the amount of water that infiltrates the soil, runs off the

surface, or gets stored in the soil. This information helps

understand the availability and distribution of water

resources within the watershed.

4.1.1 Study Area Map

Figure 4.1.a
 To extract the Lake Sebu map, the researchers

obtained the Philippine shapefile from DIVA-GIS, a

platform that offers free spatial data and tools for

mapping and analyzing biodiversity and environmental

data. After acquiring the Philippine shapefile, the

researchers filtered out only the features that

correspond to the Lake Sebu area within the South

Cotabato province (Figure 4.1.a). The selected features

of the Philippine shapefile were then extracted and

saved according to the target Coordinate Reference

System (CRS). This extracted shapefile can now be used

for further analysis, visualization, or any specific

tasks related to the Lake Sebu area within QGIS.

Figure 4.1.b
4.1.2 Digital Elevation Model(DEM)

Once the DEM(Figure 4.1.b) is imported into a GIS

software, it serves as a foundation layer for numerous

analyses. One of the primary purposes of a DEM in GIS

is to visualize and understand the topography of a

study area. By displaying the elevation data as a

continuous surface, the DEM helps identify high and low

elevation areas, slopes, ridges, valleys, and other

terrain features. Steep slopes are often desirable for

hydro-power development as they indicate rapid water

flow and the potential for higher energy generation.

Figure 4.1.c Figure 4.1.d

4.1.3 Annual Rainfall Map

Obtain annual rainfall data (Figure 4.1.c) from

PERSIANN-CCS-CDR (Precipitation Estimation from

Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural

Networks-Cloud Classification System-Climate Data

Record) and save it as as a raster file or in TIF

format.The rainfall map provides information about the

spatial distribution of rainfall within the study area.

It helps identify regions with higher or lower average

rainfall, indicating areas with potentially greater or

lesser water resources available for hydropower

generation. Areas with higher rainfall may have a

greater potential for hydropower due to increased water

availability and runoff.

4.1.4 Land Cover Map

Geospatial data for land cover map(Figure 4.1.d)

can be obtained in United States Geological Survey

(USGS) EarthExplorer including the metadata associated

with the data sources to ensure they meet your study

requirements in terms of accuracy, resolution, and

spatial extent. The land cover map provides information

about the distribution and types of land cover classes

within the study area. Each land cover class has a

 specific curve number assigned to it, representing its

runoff potential. Using the land cover map, you assign

the appropriate curve number values to each land cover

class present in the study area. Curve numbers are

typically derived from tables or lookup charts

available in hydrological literature, such as the Soil

Conservation Service (SCS) curve number method. These

values reflect the hydrological characteristics of

different land cover types.

Figure 4.1.e

4.1.5 Hydrologic Soil Group Map

The hydrologic soil data and soil classification

can be obtained from Natural Resources Conservation

 Service (NRCS) of the United States Department of

Agriculture (USDA). The hydrologic soil group map is a

critical input in the calculation of the curve number

(CN). The CN method, developed by the NRCS, estimates

runoff and infiltration rates based on hydrologic soil

group classifications. Each hydrologic soil group is

assigned a specific CN value, reflecting its runoff

potential and infiltration capacity. By incorporating

the CN values derived from the hydrologic soil group

map into hydrological models or equations, you can

estimate th e runoff generated from rainfall events

within the study area. The CN values contribute to

calculating the initial abstraction and potential

maximum retention, which affect the runoff volume and

timing.

4.2 Flow Direction and Flow Accumulation

To obtain the flow direction, the generated DEM is

used as the elevation raster in the PCRaster plugin to

extract the stream flow direction of the study area. In GIS,

flow direction is derived from a Digital Elevation Model

(DEM) using algorithms like D8 or D-Infinity. These

algorithms calculate the steepest downward slope for each

cell and assign a direction indicating the flow path. Once

the flow direction is determined, Strahler order can be

calculated for each stream segment using the SAGA Tool

plugin. Strahler order is a hierarchical classification

system that assigns an order to each stream segment based

on the complexity of its tributaries. The order starts with

the smallest tributaries having an order of 1 and increases

as two streams of the same order converge, resulting in an

increment of 1 for the combined segment. Higher Strahler

orders represent larger rivers formed by the convergence of

multiple smaller streams.

Figure 4.2.a
 Figure 4.2.b

4.3 Stream Network and Watershed Delineation

Sream order and watershed delineation were conducted in

QGIS using flow direction and flow accumulation data,

facilitated by the GRASS toolset. The objective was to

analyze the hydrological characteristics of the study area

and identify stream networks and watershed boundaries.

Initially, a digital elevation model (DEM) was imported

into QGIS and prepared for analysis, ensuring proper

georeferencing and alignment. The GRASS tool "r.watershed"

was then employed to generate the flow direction and flow

accumulation maps from the DEM. These maps provided

information on the direction of water flow and the

accumulation of flow in each cell of the raster dataset.

With the flow direction and flow accumulation maps

available, Using the GRASS tool "r.stream.order" in QGIS,

the flow direction raster was inputted along with the

specified threshold value of 6. This threshold value

determined that streams with a Strahler stream order equal

to or greater than 6 would be considered significant. The

tool analyzed the network of streams and assigned stream

orders to each segment accordingly. In addition to the

stream order threshold, the watershed delineation process

incorporated the use of 7 outlet points located along the

stream network. These outlet points were strategically

selected to represent key locations within the study area

where water flow converges and forms distinct drainage

basins.
 The x and y coordinates (Figure 4.3.a) of each outlet

point were identified and inputted into the watershed

delineation algorithm. This allowed for targeted analysis

of specific areas of interest and facilitated the

extraction of watershed boundaries associated with these

outlet points.

Figure 4.3.a Figure 4.3.b

The output of the watershed delineation process is a map

that depicts the delineated watersheds overlaid with the

stream network (Figure 4.3.b). The map provides a

comprehensive view of the hydrological characteristics and

connectivity within the study area. The watersheds,

represented as polygons, are displayed with varying sizes

and shapes, reflecting the unique drainage areas associated

with each stream segment or outlet point. The boundaries of

the watersheds follow the natural flow patterns derived

from the flow direction and flow accumulation data. Each

watershed is accompanied by its corresponding area value,

represented in square meters (sq.m), which provides an

indication of the land surface area that contributes runoff

to the respective stream segment. The area values are

derived from the raster data and are attributed to each

watershed polygon. Overlaying the watersheds, the stream

network is visualized as a series of interconnected lines

representing the flow paths of the watercourses. The stream

network displays the hierarchical stream orders, where

thicker lines denote higher-order streams. Combining the

watershed polygons with the stream network, the map enables

the identification of the contributing areas to each stream

segment and provides insights into the spatial distribution

and relationships of the hydrological features within the

study area.
4.4 Head Drop Calculation

This approach allows you to quantify the difference in

elevation between a location and its nearest neighbor,

providing valuable information for hydrological analysis,

engineering design, and other applications related to water

flow and terrain analysis.

4.4.1 Nearest Neighbor Conversion and Head Drop

Calculation

Using the GRASS plugins(Figure 4.4.a) in QGIS,

the researchers imported the study area DEM as the

raster layer to convert the layer to nearest neighbor

DEM. To calculate the head drop, the researcher

subtract the nearest neighbor Digital Elevation

Model(DEM) from the Digital Elevation Model(DEM) of

the study area using the Raster Calculator in

QGIS(Figure 4.4.B).

Figure 4.4.a
 Figure 4.4.b

4.4.2 Head Drop Map

By analyzing the head drop map the researchers can

calculate the hydropower potential in QGIS because it

represents the change in elevation or the vertical

distance between two points along a river or stream. In

the context of hydropower, the head drop refers to the

height difference between the upstream and downstream

sections of a river or stream, which is crucial for

estimating the potential energy that can be harnessed

for power generation.

 Figure 4.4.c

4.5 Curve number calculations

To solve the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) Curve

Number (CN) using the raster calculator in QGIS, follow

these steps. First, ensure you have a land cover map and a

hydrologic soil group map in raster format with the same

spatial extent and coordinate system. Open the Raster

Calculator in QGIS and construct an expression that

combines the land cover and hydrologic soil group rasters

to calculate the CN values. This expression should account

for all possible combinations of land cover and soil group

values and assign the appropriate CN values based on the

SCS method.

4.5.1 Land Cover Map Reclassification

To reclassify the land cover map into four

categories, the researchers examine the original land

cover classes in the map and identify the dominant or

most significant classes(Table 3). These classes can

serve as the basis for the new categories.

Original Classification Revised Classification
Numbe
Number Description Description
r
18 Inland Wetlands
19 Coastal Wetlands
1 Water
22 Inland Water
23 Ocean Water
1 Residential Area
2 Industrial Area
3 Commercial Area
Urban(Developed
2
4 Amusement Area )
5 Traffic Area
Public utilities
6
Area
12 Deciduous Forest
13 Coniferous Forest 3 Forest
14 Mixed Forest
7 Paddy Fields
8 Cultivated Fields
9 House Plantation
10 Orchards
11 Etc.
Agricultural
4
15 Natural Grasses (Grass/Crops)
Artificial
16
Grasses
17 Etc.
20 Mining Area
21 Barren Area

Table 3
 Figure 4.5.a

Figure 4.5.b

The researchers then created a .txt file(Figure 4.5.a)

containing the maximum,minimum, and output value for the

reclassified Land cover. Using the Raster Analysis

Plugins(Figure 4.5.b), the researchers set the input layer

as the Land Cover raster map and the class_table .txt file

as the layer containing the class breaks. Using the given

inputs the Land Cover map is reclassified into four

categories, the Forest, Agricultural, Water,and Urban

area(Figure 4.5.c)

Figure 4.5.c
4.5.2 Calculating Soil Conservation Service (SCS) Curve

Number (CN) using Raster Calculator

Figure 4.5.d

100 * (A == 1) +
57 * (A == 2 AND B == 1) +
72 * (A == 2 AND B == 2) +
81 * (A == 2 AND B == 3) +
86 * (A == 2 AND B == 4) +
30 * (A == 3 AND B == 1) +
58 * (A == 3 AND B == 2) +
71 * (A == 3 AND B == 3) +
78 * (A == 3 AND B == 4) +
67 * (A == 4 AND B == 1) +
77 * (A == 4 AND B == 2) +
83 * (A == 4 AND B == 3) +
87 * (A == 4 AND B == 4)

Figure 4.5.e
 Upon obtaining the necessary input data, including

the land cover map and a hydrologic soil group map,

Using the PCRaster tool(Figure 4.5.d), the researchers

join the attribute tables of the land cover and

hydrologic soil group layers based on a common

identifier or spatial relationship. This will associate

the curve number values from the hydrologic soil group

layer to the land cover layer. Using the raster

calculator, Create an expression that combines the land

cover and hydrologic soil group rasters to assign the

appropriate curve number to each cell which shown in

Table 2. The expression syntax(Figure 4.5.e) will

depend on the specific values and categories in your

land cover and soil group rasters. This expression

should account for all possible combinations of land

cover and soil group values and assign the appropriate

CN values based on the SCS method. Execute the

calculation to generate a new raster layer representing

the calculated CN values. Analyze the resulting CN

raster to interpret the runoff potential and

infiltration capacity of each cell. Higher CN values

indicate higher runoff potential and lower infiltration

capacity, while lower CN values represent lower runoff

potential and better infiltration capacity. Visualize

the CN raster using symbology and classification

methods in QGIS to identify areas with varying runoff

potential and infiltration characteristics. This

information can be used for further hydrological

analysis and to assess the hydropower potential in the

study area.

4.5.3 Soil Conservation Service (SCS) Curve Number (CN)

Map (Figure 4.5.e)

From the Land Cover and Hydrologic Soil group

data inputs, The output of the the SCS CN map mas

correspond to the given values of the combination of

HSG and Land Cover data. Low CN values (typically below

50): These values are often associated with land covers

and soil conditions that have high infiltration rates,

such as forests, wetlands, or well-drained soils. Areas

with low CN values tend to generate less runoff and

have a higher capacity to retain water. Moderate CN

values (around 50 to 75): These values are commonly

associated with a mix of land cover types, including

agricultural lands, grasslands, or moderately-drained

soils. Areas with moderate CN values exhibit moderate

infiltration rates and can generate moderate amounts of

runoff. High CN values (above 75): These values are

 often associated with land covers and soil conditions

that have low infiltration rates, such as urban areas,

paved surfaces, or poorly-drained soils. Areas with

high CN values tend to generate significant amounts of

runoff and have a lower capacity to retain water in

hydrological analysis.

Land Use LU Hydrologic Soil Groups (HSGs)

Description Value A B C D
Water 1 100 100 100 100
Urban 2 57 72 81 86
Forest 3 30 58 71 78
Agricultural 4 67 77 83 87

Table 2
Figure 4.5.f
4.6 Runoff Calculation

estimation of runoff from a catchment area is an

important aspect of hydrological analysis. To calculate

runoff, the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) model developed

by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) is

commonly utilized. This model employs an empirical equation

that considers rainfall and a parameter known as the Curve

Number (CN), which represents the combined effects of land

cover, hydrologic soil class, and other factors on runoff

generation. By incorporating these variables, the SCS model

provides a means to estimate direct runoff. The annual

runoff calculation involves applying the formula and

utilizing rainfall data along with the appropriate Curve

Number coefficient.The annual runoff calculation was

approached using the formula(Eqn.1);

(1)

Where Q = actual annual runoff (mm), P = average annual

rainfall (mm), S = potential maximum retention, Ia = 0.2S

initial abstraction (mm). This is the loss of water before

runoff begins by soil and vegetation in a form of

infiltration. The constant value of 0.2 was used for the

study area. The potential maximum retention (S) was

calculated by involving CN and the constant value. Equation

below is used for calculation (Eq. 2);

(2)

CN = curve number of hydrologic soil and is the function of

soil type, Land use and Land cover (LULC) and antecedent

moisture condition (AMC)

4.6.1 Potential Maximum Retention Calculation

Using the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) Curve

Number (CN), the researchers calculate the potential

maximum retention using the Raster Calculator. Equation

below is used for calculation (Eq.2)

25400
S= − 254 (2)
CN

Figure 4.6.a
By considering the potential maximum retention in the

analysis, you can refine the estimation of actual annual

runoff for hydropower potential. In hydropower analysis,

understanding the potential maximum retention helps in

evaluating the water availability and flow patterns within

a watershed. It provides insights into the amount of water

that can be captured and utilized for hydropower generation

rather than being lost as runoff.

4.6.2 Annual Runoff Calculation

The annual runoff calculation was approached using

the formula(Eqn.1);

(1)

The rainfall data and the CN coefficient raster

were used as inputs to the raster calculator to compute

the runoff values for each cell in the catchment area.

The raster calculator performed the necessary

calculations based on the equations and algorithms

specified in the SCS model, resulting in a runoff

raster layer. This runoff layer provides information

about the amount of water runoff generated by each cell

in the catchment area, which is essential for further

hydrological analysis and water resource management.

Figure 4.6.b

Figure 4.6.c
4.7 Discharge Calculation

The output from calculation above was the annual

runoff in millimetre (mm) which was then integrated with

watershed area to obtain cubic metre (m3)of river discharge.

The river discharge within a sub-watershed is then divided

by 31,536,000 (total seconds in a year) to get the output

unit in m3/s. The calculation was done using raster

calculator.

Figure 4.7.a

To determine the area of the watershed, the raster

data representing the watershed boundaries was converted

into a polygon shapefile. This conversion process involved

transforming the pixel-based representation of the

watershed into a vector-based format, which allows for more

precise geometric calculations. Once the watershed polygons

were obtained, the field calculator was employed to

calculate the area of each catchment.By applying the

appropriate formula or function, the field calculator

computed the area in square meters for each catchment

polygon, providing valuable information about the size and

extent of the watershed (Figure 4.7.a).

Figure 4.7.b
4.8 Hydropower potential calculations

The hydropower potential calculation is based on the

fundamental principles of fluid mechanics and the

relationship between key parameters such as water density,

annual discharge, falling height or head, and gravity.

Hydropower potential development sites were quantified by

calculating certain power outputs at potential site. The

power potential (P) in Watts (W) was calculated using

(Eq 3).

P = q * m * g * h (3)

Where,P = power potential (W), q = density of

water(1000 kg/m3),m = annual discharge (m3/s),h = falling

height or head (m), g = acceleration due to gravity (9.81

m/s2). By utilizing raster data, including the discharge map,

head drop raster data, and constant values for gravity and

water density, we conducted an assessment of the hydropower

potential within the diverse catchment areas of Lake Sebu

in South Cotabato. The raster calculator tool was employed

to perform the calculations necessary for estimating the

energy-generating capacity of the water resources in the

region (Figure 4.8.a). The output raster is the hydropower

potential map of different catchment area.

 Figure 4.8.a

Upon analyzing the calculated values of the hydropower

potential, it was observed that the range varied from 0 to

4.8 MW across the study area, encompassing the entire

watershed. However, the primary interest lies in assessing

the hydropower potential specifically within the stream

networks. Therefore, the focus narrows down to evaluating

the energy-generating capacity within the river channels

rather than considering the entire watershed. By

concentrating on the stream networks, the study aims to

identify the most suitable locations for hydropower

development, taking advantage of the flowing water and

optimized falling heights along the rivers.

Figure 4.8.b
4.9 Hydropower potential sites

In this section, the analysis is centered on

identifying potential hydropower sites within the stream

network, with a specific focus on run-of-river projects.

The first step involves converting the hydropower raster

data into a vector format, allowing for a more detailed

examination of each individual pixel within the stream

network. By zooming in on these areas, the capacity and

suitability of each location can be assessed. By

concentrating on the run-of-river concept, which relies on

the natural flow of water without the need for large-scale

reservoirs, the study aims to identify optimal sites for

hydropower base on the energy-generating capacity.

Figure 4.9.a
 Figure 4.9.b

Several areas within the study region have been

identified as having the potential to generate 1 to 2 MW of

hydropower based on our calculations. However, we would

like to highlight a specific area (Figure 4.9.b) that holds

significant promise due to a proposed project by Euro Hydro.

This area aligns with the capacity of a planned mini

hydropower plant, which is expected to generate 1.5 MW of

electricity. Furthermore, this plant has the potential to

generate a total of 3 MW by utilizing two sets of

horizontal axis Francis runner turbines, each with a

capacity of 1.5 MW. This underscores the significance of

this particular area in terms of its potential for

hydropower development and the role it could play in

contributing to the region's energy needs.

Another noteworthy point of interest within the study area

is situated at the coordinates 672559.22 (X) and 689596.81

(Y). This particular location exhibits a considerable

hydropower potential, with an estimated capacity to

generate approximately 2 MW of electrical power. The

precise coordinates allow for the accurate identification

and mapping of this site, highlighting its significance in

terms of renewable energy resources.

Figure 4.9.c
 Figure 4.9.d

Upon further analysis, a specific point has been

identified within the study area where the hydropower

potential exhibits a capacity of 4 MW. This pointrepresents

an area of significant interest due to its higher power

generation capability compared to other locations. The

identified capacity of 4 MW highlights the substantial

potential for hydropower development at this specific point,

emphasizing its significance in the overall assessment of

the study area.

 Figure 4.9.e

Figure 4.9.f

The identified point, characterized by the

coordinates 6.1644716 latitude and 124.5324971 longitude,

lies between the geographical areas of Lake Sebu and

Maitum. This location holds significant importance in

terms of hydropower potential assessment. The proximity

to both Lake Sebu and Maitum suggests a strategic

position that could capitalize on the natural resources

and topography of the region for hydropower generation.

With a capacity of 4 MW at this point, it presents a

compelling opportunity for further exploration and

development of sustainable energy solutions in the area.

In this study, while there are numerous areas

within the study site that exhibit the potential to

generate a maximum of 2 MW of hydropower, we have chosen

to focus on two specific areas for further analysis. The

first area of interest is characterized by an existing

hydropower project proposal. Additionally, we have

identified another area within the study site that

demonstrates the maximum capacity for hydropower

generation. By meticulously applying the calculations and

methodologies using QGIS, we have determined that this

particular area, with its coordinates, has the potential

to generate the highest power output of 4 MW. By

highlighting this location, we aim to showcase the

accuracy and reliability of our hydropower potential

calculations using QGIS as a valuable tool in the field

of renewable energy assessment.