Where to in terms of temperature?

28th July 2023

“Eigentime” = “Proper Time”. In relativity theory, proper time (Latin, “own time”) is independent of coordinates. Now is the “Proper Time” for change
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 Whare are we headed?
Current Policies are still nowhere near the scale and pace of emission reductions required
to limit global warming to 1.5oC; current median projection is 2.5oC

UN analysts assessed all of the current climate pledges from

the nearly 200 nations that have signed onto the 2015 Paris
Agreement. The researchers determined that those 2.0OC by 2050;
commitments leave the global community far from the agreed- 3.5OC by 2100

upon goal to limit warming to 1.5oC. 1.8OC

1.7OC
To stay within that 1.5oC
goal, total greenhouse gas emissions
need to fall 43% by 2030 compared with 2019 levels
But, based on existing plans and policies, the world is headed 1.6OC

toward a 10.6% increase in annual emissions by 2030 over

2010 levels.
Compared with 2019 levels, current NDCs2 and climate
pledges put us at just a 0.3% emissions reduction by 2030.
The best estimate of peak temperature in the twenty-first
century (projected mostly for 2100 when temperature
continues to rise) is in the range of 2.1-2.9oC, depending on
the underlying assumptions.

126 October 2022 2 Nationally Determined Contributions Source: gizmodo.com/un-report-climate-change-2-degrees-warming-1849704926, referring to : FCCC/PA/CMA/2022/4 ; Figure from IPCC, 2022: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2022: Mitigation
of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (see Table SPM.2; -Cases: C7 (29), C3b(97), C3 (311), C1 (97) 1
 The minimum achievable increase is close to 1.6oC
In the absence of radical and swift reduction in fossil fuel developments, including the use
of coal and gas, a temperature rise of 1.8oC (black dotted line) by 2050 appears likely
Global GHG emissions projections and associated temperature increases Global GHG emissions projections and associated temperature increases
IPCC 6th Assessment Report 2022 (ESGP Summary Analyses) IPCC 6th Assessment Report 2022 (ESGP Summary Analyses)
70 3.5 80 4.0
Trend from Current
Implemented Policies Trend from Current

Global Termperature rise from pre-indstrial levels, Degrees C

Global Termperature rise from pre-indstrial levels, Degrees C

and Planned Fosiil Fuel 70 Implemented Policies 3.5
60 3.0
Developments and Planned Fosiil Fuel
Limit Warming to 2.0 Developments
60 3.0
GHG Emissions GT-CO2e (p.a.)

GHG Emissions GT-CO2e (p.a.)

Deg C; current NDCs to
50 2.5 Limit Warming to 2.0 Deg C;
2030 (overshoot then
current NDCs to 2030 (overshoot
swift action) 50 2.5
then swift action)
40 2.0
40 2.0

30 1.5
Limit Warming to 2.0 30 1.5
Deg C

20 1.0 20 1.0
Limit Warming to 2.0
Deg C
Limit Warming to Limit Warming to
10 0.5 10 0.5
1.5 Deg C 1.5 Deg C

0 0.0
0 0.0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Solid lines are total global GHG emissions ; dashed lines are the associated average global termperature projections
Solid lines are total global GHG emissions ; dashed lines are the associated average global termperature projections

IPCC 6th AR Scenario Group Scenario Description

C1 Limit Warming to 1.5 Deg C
C3 Limit Warming to 2.0 Deg C
C3b_NDCs Limit Warming to 2.0 Deg C; current NDCs to 2030 (overshoot then swift action)
C5 Limit Warming to 2.5 Deg C
C7 Trend from Current Implemented Policies and Planned Fossil Fuel Developments

1The curves above represent the average emissions and temperature trajectories for the 6th AR Scenarios : C1, C3, C3b_NDCs (to 2030); C5 and C7
Source: Representative cases from the IPCC projections fr the 6th Assessment Report, ESGP analysis and graphics ; data site at : https://iiasa.ac.at/models-tools-data/ar6-scenario-explorer-and-database 2
 The role of fossil fuels in exceeding the 1.5oC target
A massive reduction in future (including currently planned) coal, oil and gas developments
is required to achieve a 1.5oC maximum global warming
If historical operating patterns are
maintained, and without additional
abatement, estimated cumulative future
CO2 emissions from existing fossil fuel
infrastructure, the majority of which is in the
power sector, would amount to 850 [600-
1100] GtCO2 when unabated emissions
from currently planned infrastructure in the
power sector are included
These estimates compare with cumulative
global net CO2 emissions from all sectors
of 510 [330-710] GtCO2 until the time of
reaching net zero CO2 emissions in
pathways that limit warming to 1.5oC
(>50%) with no or limited overshoot, and
890 [640-1160] GtCO2 in pathways that
limit warming to 2oC (>67%)

1[ Footnote ]
Source: IPCC, 2022: Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 3