Thayer Consultancy Background Brief:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Will Vietnam and the U.S.
Become Strategic Partners this
Year?
August 9, 2023

We are working on a report regarding the possibility of a U.S.-Vietnam relationship

upgrade this year and request your insights.
Here are the questions we would like you to respond to:
Q1. Last month, Vietnam and the United States celebrated the 10th anniversary of
their comprehensive partnership. Many people predicted and expected that the two
countries would upgrade their relations on this occasion. Why didn’t this happen?
ANSWER: The United States and Vietnam have not upgraded their relations to a
strategic partnership because President Joe Biden and Secretary General Nguyen Phu
Trong have not yet exchanged visits. There are some concerns that the health of
General Secretary Trong may affect his ability to travel, according to private
Vietnamese sources. Today, President Biden unexpectedly announced that he would
be visiting Vietnam ”shortly” without giving any further details.
Strategic partnerships are usually state to state agreements. The U.S.-Vietnam
Comprehensive Partnership was agreed by Presidents Barack Obama and Truong Tan
Sang in 2013, for example.
It is likely that agreement on a strategic partnership will be announced in either Hanoi
or Washington on the occasion of a visit by a high-level leader. Since the
comprehensive partnership was announced in Washington, it seems likely that
Vietnam would want to host the agreement on a strategic partnership in Hanoi.
Q2. Is there anything standing in the way of the two former enemies upgrading their
relationship?
ANSWER: When President Biden and General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong spoke by
telephone in March, they agreed to let appropriate officials on both sides work out
the details. Since that conversation, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and Treasury
Secretary Janet Yellen have visited Vietnam. Le Hoai Trung, Chairman of the Vietnam
Communist Party of Vietnam External Relations Committee visited Washington.
Protocol issues have been the main reason for the delay – when will Biden and Trong
exchange visits, and when, where and who will announce the elevation of relations to
a strategic partnership. President Biden’s surprise announcement sets the scene for
an upgrade in U.S.-Vietnam relations during his visit to Hanoi.
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Q3. U.S .President Joe Biden said on July 28 that the leader of Vietnam wanted to meet
him for talks at the September G20 summit in September in New Delhi to discuss
elevating U.S.-Vietnam relations. Why did Biden reveal that information at the Maine
meeting with donors for his re-election campaign in 2024?
ANSWER: President Biden’s remarks at a campaign reception in Freeport, Maine were
wide-ranging. It was a relaxed informal occasion with his supporters. Biden was trying
to regale his audience with his command of international affairs. His central theme
was how much the world had changed since the end of the Second World War. For
example, Biden said, “does anybody think that the post-war eras still exist, the rules
of the road from the end of World War Two?” Biden touched on various regions in the
world first mentioning Europe, China, Japan and South Korea before turning to
Southeast Asia and Vietnam.
Q4. President Biden told his supporters that the Vietnamese leader "want[ed] to
elevate us to a major partner, along with Russia and China." As of now, the U.S. is
Vietnam's third-tier diplomatic partner, while China and Russia are Vietnam's
comprehensive strategic partners, which is at the top level. When Biden gave that
information out, what message was he trying to convey?
ANSWER: At the end of his comments on Vietnam President Biden added, “I’m not
going to take you around the world, but the point is: The world is changing.” Biden
was conveying that Vietnam was a former enemy and now sought closer ties with
the United States. Further, Vietnam wanted to put the U.S. on par with its closest
partners, China and Russia.
Q5. Vietnamese-American relations are seen as having a strong substance and close
cooperation in many areas. Some Vietnamese officials have described the partnership
as a strategic in all but name. Do you think upgrading the relationship is necessary?
ANSWER: When Vietnamese officials say that it doesn’t matter what term is used,
Vietnam-US relations are strategic in nature, they are engaged in a bit of hyperbole.
The upgrading of the relationship is necessary for symbolic and practical reasons.
Vietnam has a three tier hierarchy of relations – comprehensive, strategic, and
comprehensive strategic. The top tier includes China, Russia, India and South Korea
with Australia likely to be added this year.
As a comprehensive partner, the United States is ranked along with South Africa, Chile,
Brazil, Venezuela, Argentina, Ukraine, Denmark, Myanmar, Canada, Hungary, Brunei
and the Netherlands.
As a strategic partner the U.S. would join the ranks that include: Japan, Spain, United
Kingdom, Germany, Italy, Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia, France, Malaysia,
Philippines, Australia and New Zealand.
As for practical reasons, when a strategic partner’s head of state/government makes
an official visit to Vietnam he/she is given access to Vietnam’s “four pillars” – party
General Secretary, state president, prime minister and chairman of the National
Assembly.
Q6. Who would gain more from the relationship upgrade, Vietnam or the US?
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Vietnam, as a developing country, will gain the most across all areas of the strategic
partnership because cooperation in these areas is designed to increase Vietnam’s
human resources and capacity to develop further. But these are marginal differences.
The two stand to benefit reciprocally from economic cooperation including trade and
investment
Q7. Do you expect to see an upgrade of the U.S.-Vietnam relationship this year?
Explain the reason for your expectation.
ANSWER: Yes, I expect to see an upgrade in bilateral relations this year. It has been
the Biden Administration that has pressed Vietnam to upgrade relations. Vietnam was
initially reticent, but with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the formation of a China-
Russia “partnership without limits” Vietnam has a pressing interest in developing
leverage to ward off unwanted pressures from China.
Scheduling seems to have been a problem up to now. ASEAN will be holding its summit
and related meetings in Jakarta from 5-7 September just prior to the G20 Summit.
President Biden’s announcement today suggests he may visit Vietnam as part of his
attendance at the G20 summit in New Delhi from 9- 10 September.
The U.S. is hosting the annual APEC summit in San Francisco in November. This
provides a second option of officially hosting Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh in
Washington where an announcement on a strategic partnership could be made.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Will Vietnam and the U.S. Become Strategic
Partners this Year?,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, August 9, 2023. All
background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.