SOUTHEAST ASIA

REGRESSION FROM
DEMOCRACY AND
ITS IMPLICATION
JOSHUA KURLANTZICK

PRESENTED BY: CANAYON, MYLA, L.

MAIN POINT:
How ASEAN countries has undergone a
rapid and severe regression from
democracy.

Why Democracy Stagnated in Southeast

Asia.

The Role of the United States.

Why Regression From Democracy in

Southeast Asia Matters.

Why implications of this regression from

democracy are significant.
 In August 1967, when ASEAN, the main
regional organization, was founded.

The situation changed little

throughout the 1970s and 1980s; brief
experiments with democracy in
Thailand and the Philippines
succumbed to new versions of
authoritarian rule.

Indonesia, Singapore, Thai Military and

several SEA nations posted some of
the highest growth rates in the world
between 1960's and 1990's.
SOUTHEAST ASIA’S ROCKY
HISTORY OF DEMOCRACY Fear of external threats from China and
Vietnam brought the countries
together into ASEAN.

1990s and early 2000s ASEAN

developed a charter affirming its
commitment to upholding human
rights
By the 1990s, decades of growth in
Southeast Asian nations had created
larger, more educated urban middle
classes in cities like Bangkok, Jakarta,
Manila, Singapore, Kuala Lumpur, and
even Phnom Penh. SOUTHEAST ASIA’S ROCKY
HISTORY OF DEMOCRACY
The Philippines is the first Southeast Asian nation to
democratize.

In other countries, like Thailand, the military

managed to regain power for a time in the late
1980s and early 1990s but then used such bloody
tactics that it lost significant middle- and upper-
class support.

In the late 1990s, Southeast Asia suffered

immensely from the Asian financial crisis, and the
falling growth rates further diminished the appeal of
many longtime autocrats. The crisis hit Indonesia
the hardest.

In Malaysia, the financial crisis and the cronyistic

politics and economic management revealed as
Malaysian companies imploded sparked urban
street protests, which gave birth to an opposition
movement led by former deputy prime minister
Anwar Ibrahim.

Even in Singapore, the financial crisis fostered

greater public criticism of the long-ruling People’s
Action Party.
In its report on global freedom in 2009, Freedom House ranked the Philippines,
Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, and Timor-Leste as “partly free” nations, and ranked
Indonesia as “free.”

Twenty years earlier, only the Philippines ranked as “partly free” in the region; the rest of
these countries were graded “not free,” while Timor-Leste did not even exist as an
independent nation.
THE
REGRESSION:
THAILAND
AND
MALAYSIA
THE REGRESSION: THAILAND AND
MALAYSIA
THAILAND:
Thailand has been mired in political crisis since
2006, when the Thai military, after fifteen years
of avoiding politics, once again launched a
coup while then prime minister Thaksin
Shinawatra was abroad.
Thailand’s security forces killed over 2,500
people in what was termed a war against
narcotics trafficking.
As Thailand’s politics have become more
unstable and its elected governments shorter
lived, its climate of civil liberties and human
rights has deteriorated badly.
 THE REGRESSION: THAILAND AND
MALAYSIA: MALAYSIA
Malaysia’s regression has been less violent, but no
less sharp, than that of Thailand. In the late 2000s it
appeared that Malaysia was poised for a peaceful
transition from the BN coalition, which had ruled the
country since it gained independence from the
United Kingdom in 1957, to an opposition coalition.

The period between late 2008 and early 2013 was,

however, the high point of Malaysia’s democratic
progression.

Following large and peaceful rallies in Kuala

Lumpur demanding electoral reforms, the
government arrested over 1,600 people, and police
beat demonstrators.
 THE REGRESSION: THAILAND AND
MALAYSIA: MALAYSIA

Then, though the opposition won the popular vote in the

2013 parliamentary elections, the BN coalition held on to
power through intimidation, electoral fraud, and
gerrymandering.

The government essentially reinstated the long-hated

Internal Security Act (ISA), a colonial-era law that
independent Malaysian governments had retained to
crack down on dissent. The law allowed Malaysia’s
government to detain people without trial indefinitely,
often on vague charges.

Malaysia had, earlier in Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak’s

time in office, gotten rid of the ISA. Yet after the 2013
elections the government passed new amendments
once again allowing detention without trial.
MYANMAR,
CAMBODIA,
AND OTHER
BACKSLIDERS
CAMBODIA

In the 1990s, Cambodia, though poor and

ravaged socially by the legacy of the Khmer
Rouge, built a vibrant NGO sector, a relatively
free press, and a political system that
accommodated real contestation, even if the
country’s lawlessness also allowed Hun Sen to
repeatedly use force to maintain his party’s
power within the system.

In the late 2000s and early MYANMAR, CAMBODIA, AND

2010s, Hun Sen consolidated
his hold over the country.
In the run up to parliamentary elections
in July 2013, the government stepped up
attacks on CNRP supporters, while
hundreds of thousands of people were
deleted from the voter rolls.
OTHER BACKSLIDERS
In January 2014, security
forces stormed several of
the protest encampments,
firing live ammunition at
protestors, burning down
homes, and beating
demonstrators.
MYANMAR

Myanmar, which had seemed poised for

extraordinary political change
in the early 2010s, also regressed as the decade
progressed.

Myanmar’s opening initially allowed for both

opposition parties and the media to blossom.
Where once the Myanmar media diet consisted of
a bland state dominated newspaper, a few
websites, and state television and radio, in the
past two years Myanmar based sites have opened
up. MYANMAR, CAMBODIA, AND
OTHER BACKSLIDERS

The initial changes had sparked massive instability, including

widespread interreligious violence that has led to the internal
displacement of over a hundred thousand people and cast doubt on
whether the country can avoid nationwide civil conflict.
VIETNAM

In 2012 and 2013, Vietnam’s regime

launched its largest crackdown on
activists, religious leaders, bloggers, and
other civil society leaders in two decades.

BRUNEI

The sultan of Brunei instituted sharia law

in 2014 in place of a previous system that
had mixed sharia for some civil, social
matters with a modern, secular legal
system for criminal cases

LAOS
Meanwhile, in Laos, which had in the 1990s and
early 2000s opened up to the world, allowing in
foreign NGOs, relaxing controls on the Internet, and
building better relations with industrialized MYANMAR, CAMBODIA, AND
democracies, the government has resumed a tight OTHER BACKSLIDERS
grip over politics and society.
 INDONESIA

Only Indonesia, of all the major countries in

Southeast Asia, has proven largely an
exception to this regression from
democracy. Since the end of Suharto’s
regime in 1998, Indonesia has held multiple
free and fair national elections

Yet at a national level, the country’s biggest

political parties, and major political
institutions such as the top levels of the
judiciary, remain dominated by a small
handful of people, many of whom have been
in power since the Suharto era.

In the run-up to Indonesia’s July 2014

presidential election, vote-buying was
widespread throughout the archipelago. MYANMAR, CAMBODIA, AND
OTHER BACKSLIDERS
WHY
DEMOCRACY 1. THE ELECTED AUTOCRATS

STAGNATED IN
2. NO TECHNOLOGICAL MAGIC BULLET

3. FAILURES OF GOVERNANCE

SOUTHEAST 4. THE REGION

ASIA
THE ROLE OF UNITED STATES

PROMOTE
DEMOCRACY
 VITAL INFORMATION:

Young generations in many countries in Southeast Asia, though

angered by the disappointing performances of many elected
governments, and frustrated with the lack of progress on
fundamental rights even under elected leaders, generally remain
committed to the idea of democracy.

Older generations in Southeast Asia, particularly urban middle-class

men and women may not have such commitments, but as long as
younger men and women from Myanmar to the Philippines retain this
commitment, democracy’s health can be restored.
 QUESTION:

Aside from rallying/street protest, what is the

best way to call out a government for its bad
governance?
 The Politics of
“Public Opinion” in
the Philippines
Eva-Lotta E. Hedman

PRESENTED BY: CANAYON, MYLA, L.

MAIN POINTS:

Something Old, Something New: Voter

Mobilisation in the Philippines.

The Rise of Public Opinion in Philippine

Politics and Society

The Ebb and Flow of “Public Opinion” in

Three Presidential Elections.
 THE POLITICS OF PUBLIC OPINION
IN THE PHILIPPINES

Elections

Public Opinion Oligarchy Voter Mobilisation

Oligarchical Democracy Aquino Administration

 Pierre Bourdieu

The article identifies the broad parameters of the

rise in polls and surveys in the Philippines, and,
drawing on the critical insights of Pierre Bourdieu,
examines the nature and significance of “public
opinion” itself. However, the argument advanced
here is a cautionary one, indicating that, while the
emergence of public opinion as a social fact alters
political calculations and dynamics associated
with voter mobilisation, the politics of public
opinion may only have limited transformative
potential for democracy in the Philippines.

Pierre Bourdieu was a French sociologist and public

intellectual.
Something Old, Something New:
Voter Mobilisation in the Philippines
SOMETHING OLD SOMETHING NEW

- Buying votes - Public opinion

Overall, then, even as money and
- Bandwagoning machinery have remained
- Bribing officials essential elements of election
- Political branding campaigning and voter
mobilization, the something of the
- Political dynasty - Owners of the largest old “glue” that cemented pre-
martial law politics has come
conglomerates in the PH unstuck.
- Voter brokerage
lend support
- Two party system - Multi Party
 The Rise of Public Opinion in
Philippine Politics and Society
It is in the wider context of such social, economic and institutional
change that “public opinion” has gained greater circulation as
political discourse and social fact in Philippine politics and
society, with the popularity and poll ratings of candidates – rather
than the construction and maintenance of machines – viewed as
an increasingly effective and decisive mode of voter mobilisation.

Public opinion as political discourse in Philippine politics and

society is a phenomenon that began to emerge only in the
context of the deepening crisis and mounting opposition that
marked the late authoritarian period.

In the first regular presidential elections to be held after martial

law, for example, the SWS introduced so-called “exit polls” to the
Philippines in 1992.

MORE EXAMPLE OF
SWS SURVEY:
 The Ebb and Flow of “Public Opinion”
in Three Presidential Elections

Against this backdrop, the three

presidential elections in the period
between the first and the second
Aquino presidency provide instructive
glimpses of both the power and the
limitations of “public opinion” since
the resurrection of democratic
institutions in the Philippines.
 VITAL INFORMATION
As a result of the increased focus upon the
technologies of aggregating votes and building
party systems, and the possibilities for improving
upon these, however, the society and politics
within which parties and elections are embedded
in Southeast Asia, as elsewhere, have tended to
disappear from view.
 OPINION

I believe that these 'public opinion' isn't

credible for you to say that a country
(Philippines) is democratize. After all, the votes
and support can be bought.
 QUESTION/ARGUMENT
If someone talk to you during the election day and
they want to buy your vote, would you take the money and vote for that
someone's presidential candidate or would you take the money but still
stick to your principle?

If you choose to take the money and stick to your principle, but then later
on, you found out that the money that they gave and you already spent is
from the tax of your kababayans that these candidate steal, how would
you feel?