We propose a specific particle simulation for Japan based on the Japanese government data on COVID19.

The basic model for the simulation is using the Euler’s equation of inviscid fluid to model the people movement.
Radioactive decay function is used for modelling transmission probability from infectious to susceptible person.
From the Japanese government data we are able to draw a relationship between coronavirus transmission rate
and average distance between people in Japan and by using this information we propose an estimated SIR
model for Japan. Using the estimated SIR model, it is possible to control the transmission rate for small area
(school,supermarket,etc) by controlling the distance between people. From specific particle simulation results,
we get the optimum average distance between people to reduce the transmission rate of COVID-19 in Japan is
d = 1.6m.
The SIR Model divides the population into three species namely Susceptible(S), Infectious(I), and Recov-
ered(R). The SIR model is the following system of coupled non-linear ODEs:

dS
= −βS(t)I(t) (1a)
dt
dI
= βS(t)I(t) − γI(t) (1b)
dt
dR
= γI(t) (1c)
dt
β is the disease transmission rate and γ is the recovery rate (in other words the duration of infection is 1/γ
). From Japanese Government Prefecture Data on COVID-19 (figure 1 right), we get the relationship between
√
transmission rate (β) and average distance between people (d0 ) with d0 = 1/ ρ and ρ is a population density:

β̂japan (d0 (m)) = −0.0014d0 (m) + 0.1858 (2)

T1/2 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000
βf it 0.9465 0.523 0.5205 0.4759 0.356 0.2846 0.1827 0.1477 0.1684 0.1489

Table 1: βf it for various T1/2 .

N 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240

βf it 0.1523 0.1781 0.1927 0.2205 0.2182 0.4085 0.4623 0.4666 0.4355 0.5388

Table 2: βf it for various N in 20 × 20 space.

1
Figure 1: Simulation results for various T1/2 (left), and Simulation results for various N in 20 × 20 space
(midle),COVID-19 Japan Prefectural Data (right)

We choose the suitable characteristic half-time for transmission probability in Japan based on (2) with
d0 = dsim and results of particle simulation with various half-time with dsim .(see figure 1,left and table 1). From
table (1), the closest value with β̂Japan is βf it (T1/2 = 700). Then the choice of characteristic probability half time
for Japan is (T1/2 = 700). From the prefectural data, we get the estimation for coronavirus transmission rate
by using (2). Since the data used to estimate the transmission rate is the prefectural data, where the minimum
average distance between people is dT okyo ≈ 12m, we need to do some correction for the transmission rate in
a space smaller than prefecture size (for instance supermarket, school, or any area with d ≤ 12m). Using the
characteristic half-time for Japan, we examine the simulation results on smaller space. The simulation results
for various particle density is shown by figure (1, midle) and table (2).
Assuming that the transmission rate of coronavirus for smaller area is higher than larger area (prefecture)
case by some factor α(d0 ) ≥ 1. Then the estimated SIR model for Japan with correction from particle simulation
is

dS
= −α(d0 )β̂japan S(t)I(t) (3a)
dt
dI
= α(d0 )β̂japan S(t)I(t) − γI(t) (3b)
dt
dR
= γI(t) (3c)
dt
Where α(d0 ) is a multiplier factor depending on average distance between people (d0 (m)). This factor can
be estimated by comparing the results in table (2) with the calculated β̂japan in equation (2) and fit it with
exponential decay function. The fitting results of figure (2 right)

α̂(d0 ) = 1 + 102 exp (−3.05d0 ) (4)

Figure 2: Specific Particle Simulation Results

From the specific particle results (Figure 2 left) we can see that for Japan case, we can reduce the transmission
greatly by keeping distance between people d ≥ 1.6m. By using the estimated SIR model for Japan (3) with
corresponding α(d0 ) estimated by equation (4), we can control the transmission rate by controlling the distance
between people using some policies.