II anchoring
heuristic mcurse of
The first thing you judge influences your
judgment of all that follows.
Hllmnmnclsare�inn.111:1Ee,so'Cheon:iefnwhicrlwe
�M':iromatian.�de tfflnrl<!'Che COU"lll': cJ rujud�
,.-,dpe ,ceptions
8e espe,::� rrmdful OIi lhisbiudumg fhw>cW� sui;h
as houses.cars.and salaries.1lle nitlal � Ol'b'ed iiP'OYffl to
haveaslgniflcs-.:enect.
:ou._r:::�r:=�:=�:=:s:�
ft c9nfirmation
Ub1as
andto�,.-,ddisrnssrlbrrnati<;T,thatoonllr;tswthtt-n
Thrlkol )Q1I'Ideas and beliefs as sottw•e you're actlYdy Dyi'vJIO
m
tn:l.�withratheflhanlh�tobediihnded.
"Thef1m�hthatyoomustnotloolyi:vS('W-myoue,e
theeasiestpenonlOlocl'
-Rid\.vdFeynrr-,_
backfire effect
When your core beliefs are challenged. it can cause
you to believe e...en more stmngly.
Wfl. ain� taig wic:ng abculSOffll! idolas asan 111\ad<. 1.por10UT
� selws .o.- D.Jrtfbti ilentity.This can ....dtorrctWiHd�h;i
v.n;:t\c.tUSIQ5USIO�-ck>wn(»1PtQdsc:ool'I'��
'ltalritwhat)Qldon'tlcnowthatqelb)'Ollr.(Otrouble.k'lwhat)"0'1
le'K:wb'1Vathatjultatn1so."
-Marlt'lw..
lldeclinism
You Temember the past as better than it was, and
eXpect the future to beWOf'Se than it will likely be.
Despite�ri t�mcmpe�and� � n Hstory ,
manypeq:iebelieveh'IQ5sec;1etmc;1wone.The24holne'WS
�.wilhits�rv;iof,:,.,mly��and�t�mi,y
11CCD.1N;fasomeoflhiseffect.
lns�ofrelys,gonnoJtal9icimpresslons o l howi,rutlh.-,gsused
tobeuseme1HtnblemetrlcslUChaslke,q:,ectancy.lewlsolmne
and� ardprospetey ,tatistb.
ftjust world
- hypothesis
Your preference for a just wa-ld makes you
presume that it exists.
A v.atl h v.tidlpeqE obilltweysget vmalthey� twdwcrlr.
doesnl4'wayspey<:tf,8'ld��isan1.0:�cne
IMl.ttvmtensour��-�.il.isi!bo'Che�ality.
A morejult worid requirn�••� then blame
Remember thal�t\as lherONntft Story; IW'fe Ill fa!ti:lle,
and bad lhs,gs happento!J00d p,!Ope
£ell sunk cost fallacy
You inationaUy cling to things that have already
cost you something.
v.tienweve �tecl cu tme. m:iney,or emoaon i'lto�� it
l TTWO!lhffl"l�mctt�rt. hi:s.
h..tsusto�tgn hi:sa�topan candiitortou.rbett<!<'
).ld�andcauseustomake�i1'1estrnents.
To �objectivty, ask) OU"RW: had l not *e* wtl/ftt«I
' lnl01TMtion raehef than rdyinQ p.ae\y on l'rlljudgments and
� would I still do soraw?Whlll. v«lllld ICOY"lSel a l'l'iend
todo'tlheywe..,nthe...,..,.,lilul!tion?
ft dunning-kruger
la effect
The more you l<now, the less confident
you're likely to be.
��kroNjusthowTT'l,d\�d:::nll<n:lw.tho!ytend
to�stmlltelhe'r!lblfy;tut:'s easytobec,,,er�
'Mllmyou�crtya�ideac:Jhowttr,gsae
"ThewholeprotianwththcwondlsthlltloolJandfll'lllllclare
so�olthemse!Yes,yet�pe<JPl!sotuloldou.bu."
·Bel'U'andRussel
• bamum effect
You see personal specifics in vague statements
by fillng in the gaps.
�cu IT'irdl •a �to�cornaclicnl.rt's �nybus
totai<un<bbJs�anil'hiwaysto.-mp,,,1.tharn'iOlhat
th.y�si»dhclnlp,;ncm.
flsychk:s.astrolcqasand otMnu•lhl1 btastomakeltNemlike
tlwy'l'otolling)'C'.lsomathtngNl<IYar&.c:a-mdoftwowlhlng1 ""9ht
beirurp"eted to2R'tYtoanyona.notj1,1sl;you.
Iii framing effect
You allow yourself to be unduly influenced by
oontext ard delivery.
Wf!«l!keto�k1hatwe1hrilcr.dependently,Wthetruthi:s&-atal
c:Jus�. infact. i'll'l.ien::rcl� �- fla�and!lb:le cue
Thi:s i:swhy � .sdhdustry i:sa lhh}. de,ple alrrost e-:,-one
believngthey'renollltfectedt,/advenimq�
Only whenwehave the intellectual humtity lo KCept the lac:t lhat
II
we can be ITW\lp.11ated.can we hope to limit howtnJCh wea r e .
Trytobemhdl'u.1 olhl7N thhpare being puttoyou.
in-group bias
�­
You unfairly favor those who belong to your group.
Wf!p,,ewmeth!!twe'refaTtnd�tuthet:ruthi:sltw.
we111Jtcfn.!iiclily 111-.a-those Y<roaremostlke us, Of belongto
T r y t o imagn)'OW3"1fW\lhepositiondthoseW\out�whlbt
allo attempti",g10 bedispassionMewhenjudglng those who belong
toyoish-grcups.
ffl fundamental
U attribution error
You judge othen on their charactet', but you.rgelf
on the situation.
r you haven't h&d. a '1C"Jd rq't's sie,.,p ,you kroN 'Ml/you� t,e;rv.ia
bil. XHl;but iiyou� scmeone elseberq 51owyoud:::n't ha11e
m a
strn�an:l'i0""'1,�tt-nto).JStbea��
ft'1notont,,khdtovlew�' 1itulltlon1wi1hc:hllrty,lt'1 more
oojectlYe loo. 8e mh:tl'ul 10 aboffl' on lhe 1lcledlllkhgpenonlli
respons!blityrather lhln)Js�anclblaJTrl9.
placebo effect
If you believe you' r e taking medicine it can
sometimes ' work' even if it's fake.
l
hepacetx:lcfb:tcanw.'.111:bsU'llh!lcurrh:ltnzn:cs(ut,m
P"h)Wrci,orn,chbh-Qs"evru9eSOftocilerlbcre.
Homeopathy.�IWl!.end manyoO'lff lllrm1dnatlnl
'medicft'hll',,ebeen�tobenomore effecthlethanplacebo
Keiepa healll'(ybodyandlllril.bmancet,julhgevicience-baled
rnedkh!, lrcmaqu,,l&d doc:D'.
•-f halo effect
How much you like someone, or how attractiw
they are, influences your other judgments of them.
0...�1tt�end!ll.ltunatic.an:lso�wew.,n1tobe
�-�cltoo:nsciouslyc:cntrolfOfmievanli'll'l.ien::rs.
'Tlui:s.e��IT\a�...t!rq.
It you notice that you're (llvT,; oonslstently high a, low markl
ac:rou!he bo«d. il'sworth cONidenng lhat )'Ol,lr jud;Jment may
belUtlerlngfl'Omlhehaloeffect.
Ill bystander
Iii effect
You presume someone else is going to do
somethirq in an emergency situation.
Whenunetllhqterrtieis�hqr\4µ.bttsettinq�C.411
e�akndd710do:andrner'tap,11ral:ym1hltdistnicts us!,,:;m
l
a'lel"ISe cl pencnlli responst:,ilty .heprotjem isltw.el'efY!)ne can
e�this.........,of�lnac,owd.
It!hen:' 1 anfl'M1'9fflCY lltuMion.presune to be lhe one whowil l
helpOfcalllDrhelp.Be lhec;t,m,geyou.-,am...,n1tie--'li
II availability
knowledge
Your judgments are influenced by what Once you understand something you presume
springs most easily to mind. it to be obvious to everyone.
How recent emoticollil/ p:Nffl"flJ. or \TU5UIII Y(llEmemaies arecan �TNl(esseraecn::etheyTNl<esiense,�tcanbetwdto
l � tan cane&JS<"youtollP\'.lly ttm!IT"t:ewhythey Mlt Wt, tud.o::ffP<!X�M<'.:tksc:J�
m
l:hemtoo�adiy .ridID'TQel:howrtrr.llle lhepethtocu al'iliable�real.]y ii.
-r..,.togaWl.�tper�end relevvtitatbtlail When teac� KJmeOne a:>methS1Qnew, go slr7Nandexi,1&W\ the
lhey'l'eten�1old(whhou.t ben;P11ooruh;l).Repeatkeypoint1
emotivelnlluences and.faclule lldM! pn,,ctia, to �tp embed knovMdge.
belief bias ft self-serving
liilbias
If a conclusion supports your existing beliefs, You believe your faihlres are due to external factors,
you1l rationalize anythirq that supports i t . yet you're personally responsible for yotr success es .
lt' s dtf\aitg..atoif'taMiecuenstng�ffltoccnsidttth!,­ Many ofusmjoyunearned p!ivi�ges. UCXand.advan� thal
mertsofan�t.hp,actkett-.smeansi:t.ato.rideasbeo:lrne othersdor ot . l's easytoteOa.nel.....sthatwe de5"fl'e these t�
�tocmcisnsll11tt�tually�Won:M whilst blarrn;J cro.lTISl�whenh-qsdxlt rpou.rwsy.
Ausefl.ll thnJto GM ls�and hoWdicl I !1et thisbelief?' WhenJudgln;j others. be mndl'ul ol hoWthisbwlsttcmct1
We tSld to automatlcallydelendQ0.11' ldees withoo.t ev� really withthe _jl,lst·w:,rid �funclamental attr ibution 1111'0!',
B
questioning them and lhe h-qroup bias.
C3 groupthink negativity bias
You let the social dynamics of a group situation You anow negative things to disproportionately
O'JelTide the best outcomes. influence your thinking.
DisSIMlt Ca'\be� in:!�to�·s K:lcial stMICfno;I. �PUlc:Jlo:!5.rldtutet<!c�m:n-�a"ldpmislffitlylhlnlhe
and,ocitenlhe=tccnficlentOf!Tst;tioewldetemine tleetng�r:JJjeasant�W..ae,:,rmedb'SlM\lal..rld
a a
grcupdecimu. o.r..-saltipainCa'l�as�fO'arnc:idemWO!lcl.
Ralhefthanoperly oontradicthgotller1,ledc to fac:ittate Pro-and-con lists.aswen as th!nkno in termsdprobabltitle1,
objuttve mean s ol evaluation end crtic:a1 thlnkng praclk:n can hetpyou. evah.iate lhlrqlffl01'e objectNely than relying on
asagr�activit,< acog ni!MWT\presllon.
optimism bias
You o.,erestimate the likelihood of
pessimism bias
YouOll'ef'estimate the likelihood of
positiw outcomes. negative outcomes.
ll>ereciribebenef\1s toaposi,Matitude,but it' s un...;.seto._ ��i:s.ottl!cna���t�crit
suct\Slatti�toadl/lmely�otlabtt)o'to�llllionlll. can belhe�r:J�andaruetydisorders.
�ts(�nolrTtlullily�) �� the w:,rst aipect ol pemmism b lhal e"""' llsornelh�
-.youffllll<eratlcnal.realtsticjudgrnerayou,hawakllmoreto good happens,you. 11 probabl.y feel pessmtstic about It lfftWtlY .
lee\po,simoeabow.
l!Jreactance spotlight effect
You'd rather do the opposite r:A what someone is You OYerestimate how much p eople notice how
trying to make you do. you lool<and act
��leelasltcrtyisbm;J cOOSIR!Rd.cuh:rdm iitorczl. �pcqr111emrllmaean:rrrm !ll:oi �amtheyire
�nocr,gsoweca'I=� «xllt )O.l.llbsert��),.dce� peq,le�wet1tto[Joe!IJld
getalcngW:1hyouasit�lhem�too.
8e cattrul notto lose otitectMtYWMn someone I s being
coerci�laUve,or tryingtolorce you d o somethi",g. lmtead ol wonyi",g about how you� benQ�consider how
Whdomsprings fromrefteclion. folly from reaction. you. make ott\er1fttl. They'll remember this much more end you.'U
make the world • bet� plaa,