Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Exploring Social Psychology 7th Edition Myers Solutions Manual 1
Exploring Social Psychology 7th Edition Myers Solutions Manual 1
MODULE 8
REASONS FOR UNREASON
Copyright © 2015 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without
the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 1
LECTURE AND DISCUSSION IDEAS
3. Illusory Correlation
You can link the previous discussion of the availability heuristic to Myers’ discussion of illusory
correlation and with Gilovich’s (1991) analysis of several folk beliefs including “It always rains right
after you wash the car,” “You always seem to need something just after you’ve thrown it away,” “The
phone always rings when you’re in the shower,” and “The elevator (or the bus) always seems to be
heading in the wrong direction.”
In analyzing these beliefs, Gilovich made a useful distinction between “one-sided” and “two-sided”
events. Events are two-sided if different outcomes produce the same intensity of emotion (even if it is not
the same kind), or if they each necessitate further action on the part of the individual. Many times,
however, events have only one outcome that arouses much affect or demands further action. As an
example of a one-sided event, Gilovich cited how when entering his office building through one of six
possible doors, he often seemed to find that the custodian had left that one and just that one locked. He
wrote, “I ‘always’ seemed to select the locked door.” The point is that a locked door arouses frustration
and makes the event stand out in one’s experience. Passing through an unlocked door gives rise to no
emotion, requires no special effort, and goes unnoticed. Consequently, the locked doors stand out in one’s
memory and are the basis for the illusory correlation. If analyzed closely, the folk beliefs listed above
have their basis in such “one-sided” events.
Gilovich also showed how this same process may work in close relationships, contributing, for example,
to the common belief among couples that they are “out of sync.” It seems one always wants to stay home
when the other needs to socialize, or one wants to make love when the other “needs some space.”
Wanting to do something when the other doesn’t can be frustrating and it can occupy one’s mind for some
time. When things go smoothly, events are less noteworthy. Even when they do stand out, they tend to do
so by virtue of the quality of the events themselves, and not by virtue of the synchrony that produced
them. They are remembered as instances of laughter, passion, or fun, and not as instances of synchrony.
6. Attributional Complexity
Myers notes that Fletcher and his colleagues (1986) found that psychology students explained behavior
less simplistically than equally able natural science students. This finding emerged from their research on
attributional complexity, a construct you may want to discuss in class.
In developing a measure of individual differences, the researchers postulated that the following seven
attributional constructs can be viewed as ranging along a simple-complex dimension:
A. Level of interest or motivation. Attributionally complex people possess higher levels of intrinsic
motivation to explain human behavior (“I really enjoy analyzing the reasons or causes for
people’s behavior”).
Copyright © 2015 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without
the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 4
B. Preference for complex rather than simple explanations. All other things being equal,
explanations that contain more causes are considered more complex (“Once I have figured out a
single cause for a person’s behavior, I don’t usually go any further” [reversed scored]).
C. Presence of metacognition concerning explanations. The attributionally complex tend to think
about the underlying processes involved in causal attribution (“I am very interested in
understanding how my own thinking works when I make judgments about people or attach causes
to their behavior”).
D. Awareness of the extent to which people’s behavior is a function of interaction with others.
Attributionally complex people are more aware of the power of the social situation both in terms
of the influence other people have on their own behavior and in terms of the impact their own
behavior has on others (“I think a lot about the influence I have on other people’s behavior”).
E. Tendency to infer abstract or causally complex internal attributions. Some dispositions seem to be
summary terms for specific behaviors (e.g., punctuality). Others refer to more abstract cognitive
mental structures (e.g., beliefs, attitudes, abilities). Moreover, internal causes can be linked in
complex chains (e.g., shyness causes anxiety, which causes insomnia). Abstract or causally
complex internal explanations are associated with increased attributional complexity (“To
understand a person’s behavior, I have found it is important to know how that person’s attitudes,
beliefs, and character traits fit together”).
F. Tendency to infer external causes operating at a spatial distance. External causes can be viewed
as radiating out spatially, however contemporaneously, from the person. The more physically
removed the cause, moving say, from the immediate environment to societal causes, the more
complex it is judged to be (“I think a lot about the influence that society has on other people”).
G. Tendency to infer external causes operating at a temporal distance. Some external causes exert
their influence from the distant past, perhaps through a chain of intermediary causes. The
perception of more distant causes are considered to be more complex (“I have often found that the
basic cause for a person’s behavior is located far back in time”).
7. Self-Fulfilling Prophecy
The classic instance of self-fulfilling prophecy is probably the case of Clever Hans [Pfungst, 1965; read
more online (http://skepdic.com/cleverhans.html)]—not to be confused with Freud’s case of Little Hans!
It’s a delightful story that can be told to provide some historical background to the chapter section on self-
fulfilling beliefs. Or, if you have a little more time, Marshall and Linden’s (1994) simulation of Clever
Hans in the classroom works well.
Robert Rosenthal (1994) provided an excellent overview of the research on self-fulfilling prophecy, from
the early laboratory studies, through Pygmalion effects in the classroom, to current research in
management, the courtroom, and nursing homes. In this summary, Rosenthal also reviewed his four-
factor “theory” of how teacher expectations are communicated to students. One central factor is the
“climate” in which teachers appear to create a warmer socio-emotional environment for their “special”
students. This warmth is in part communicated through nonverbal cues. Another central factor is “input.”
Teachers seem to teach both more material and more difficult material to their “special” students.
Additional factors include “output” and “feedback.” That is, teachers appear to give their “special”
students greater opportunities to respond. These are offered both verbally and nonverbally (e.g., giving
students more time to answer a question). Teachers also seem to give their “special” students more
informative feedback, again both verbal and nonverbal, as to how they are performing.
Copyright © 2015 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without
the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 5
• Discusses the fallibility of human reason in everyday life. Includes treatment of belief in ESP and
in ineffective “alternative” health practices.
Kahneman, D., Slovic, P., & Tversky, A. (Eds.). (1999). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and
biases. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
• A classic collection of 35 articles on various topics including representativeness, attribution,
availability, and overconfidence.
Levy, D. A. (1997). Tools of critical thinking: Metathoughts for psychology. Needham Heights, MA:
Allyn & Bacon.
• Separate chapters explore biases described in the text including the fundamental attribution error,
confirmation bias, and the belief perseverance. Emphasis is on applications and includes exercises
that activate the learner.
Ross, L., & Nisbett, R. (1991). The person and the situation. New York: McGraw-Hill.
• Includes discussion of the attribution process and the fundamental attribution error.
ASSIGNMENT IDEAS
DEMONSTRATIONS
Copyright © 2015 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without
the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 6
2. We Often Ignore Useful Information
A. The impact of vivid events. People typically overrecall vivid information that is more available to
memory. Demonstration 8-1 provides a demonstration of the memorability of vivid events. It is
also structured to provide yet another demonstration of overconfidence (since most students will
be more confident than correct). On each question, Fischhoff, Slovic, and Lichtenstein (1977)
reported that the second cause of death—usually the more quiet cause—is actually far more
prevalent:
Deaths per 100 Million Americans
Homicide (9,200) vs. Diabetes (19,000)
Flood (100) vs. Infectious hepatitis (330)
All accidents (55,000) vs. Strokes (102,000)
All cancers (160,000) vs. Heart disease (360,000)
Tornados (44) vs. Asthma (920)
Drowning (3,600) vs. Leukemia (7,100)
Lightning (52) vs. Appendicitis (440)
Motor vehicle accidents (27,000) vs. Cancer of the digestive system (46,400)
Many people are very confident of their erroneous responses to these items. Why? Because they
are insensitive to the invalidity of their “availability heuristic” (which uses ease of recall as one’s
clue to actual frequency).
B. The availability heuristic and the news media. Does the media sometimes lead us to distort
frequency estimation by overexposing us to some events and underexposing us to others? Pose
the following question to your students:
The FBI classifies crime in the United States into two categories-—violent crimes, such as
murder, rape, robbery, and assault, and property crime, such as burglary, larceny, or car theft.
What percent of crimes would you estimate are violent rather than property crimes? What percent
of accused felons plead that they are innocent by reason of insanity? What percent are acquitted?
What percent of convictions for felony crimes are obtained through trial instead of plea-
bargaining?
The answer to the first question is 13 percent. In 1995, there were 1,798,790 violent crimes
reported and 12,068,400 property crimes. Less than 1 percent of all accused felons plead insanity
and only a quarter of those are ultimately acquitted. Less than 10 percent of convictions for
felony crimes are obtained through a trial; more than 90 percent result from plea-bargaining.
However, aided by the news media’s reporting, we tend to overestimate the number of violent
crimes, pleas of insanity, and trials because they are more available to memory.
Demonstration 3-9 is based on a Time magazine report (January 13, 1986, p. 35). Give each
student a copy to read. At some later point (e.g., end of class period or next class period) ask
everyone to assume that everything Time reported is true and continues to be true. Imagine, then,
a frequent traveler who over the next five years showed up for 300 People’s Express flights for
which he or she had a reservation. Roughly how many times out of 300 attempts to board planes
would you expect the traveler to be bumped because People’s didn’t have room? Get a show of
hands for the answers. Explain that the correct statistical answer, assuming that everything Time
reported is true, is 10/10,000 = 1/1000 - .33/300 = 0 times every 300 flights. Most students will
answer more than 0, because the vivid tales of woe are, after a time, more available in memory
than the dry statistical fact.
Copyright © 2015 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without
the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 7
3. Illusions of Causation, Correlation, and Personal Control
The “gambler’s fallacy” is an example of an illusory correlation. The gambler believes that later chance
outcomes will balance early trends in the opposite direction, as if the early results somehow force or
influence the later results. You can demonstrate the gambler’s fallacy, if you are willing to temporarily
deceive your students. You will flip a coin a number of times. Each time before you flip, have them
record their guess. As you flip the coin five times record the following fake outcomes on the board: 1)
tails, 2) heads, 3) tails, 4) tails, and 5) tails. After they write their sixth guess, pause and ask them to agree
that the outcome of the next toss is pure chance. Say, “Since it is 50-50 whether it will be heads or tails,
half of you should predict each, right?” However, a show of hands will reveal that heads will probably
have been predicted by a 3 to 1 margin or more. Say, “You folks don’t seem to think this toss is a chance
event. And that is called the ‘gambler’s fallacy.’”
Our flawed statistical intuition interferes with our recognizing chance events for what they are. If a
sequence of events does not look random, then we will want to concoct some explanation for it. Thus if a
family has four children—all girls—we may wonder whether the father is deficient in Y chromosomes.
The two versions of Demonstration 3-10 (adapted from Kahneman & Tversky, 1972) allow you not only
to illustrate flawed statistical intuition, but also to teach two simple principles and to give students the
satisfaction of knowing they have learned something. Give half of the class each version, asking them to
complete only the first two items.
On Item #1, Kahneman and Tversky reported that Israeli students are totally insensitive to the simple
principle that statistical variability decreases as sample size increases. The odds of getting more than 60
percent girls in a sample of 1,000 babies (the chance of which is essentially zero) is not perceived as far
less than the odds of getting more than 60 percent girls in a sample of 10 babies (roughly a 40 percent
chance). To clarify by analogy, the odds of flipping six or more heads in 10 coin flips are reasonably
good. The odds of getting 600 or more heads in 1,000 tosses are infinitesimal. Point out that this dramatic
failure to consider sample size leads people to be too confident of exact percentage results derived from
small numbers of people, and not trusting enough of percentage results derived from large, representative
samples of people.
On Item #2, people tend to see outcome C as more likely than outcomes A or B. You can ask your
students how many of them put answers less than 50 for A? For B? (Most hands will likely rise.) How
many put an answer of more than 50 for C? (Again, most hands will rise.) Actually, any given sequence is
equally likely. The sequence that looks less random is actually no less likely than one that looks more
random.
Now invite them to answer Items #3 and #4, which retest the sample principles. Kahneman and Tversky
found that only 20 percent of their subjects realized that greater variability can be expected in the samples
drawn from the smaller hospital. Did more than 20 percent of your students correctly answer “B” to Item
#3? If so, you can congratulate them for apparently having learned something. And do students now
recognize that any given sequence of cards is equally improbable?
Having learned that statistical variability decreases as sample size increases, your students should have
little difficulty with these questions suggested by Gordon Wood (1984):
1) Assume you are playing tennis with a friend whose skill is a bit better than yours. Your friend
suggests you play a little longer, with the loser buying dinner for the winner. If you want to
increase your chances of winning, how much tennis should you play, given the choices of a single
game, one set, or a match consisting of three sets?
2) Assume you are an above-average golfer and you have the opportunity to play the greatest golfer
in the world. If you want to maximize your slim chance of winning should you elect to play 1, 18,
36, or 72 holes?
Copyright © 2015 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without
the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 8
4. The Illusion of Control
Stephen J. Dollinger (1986) suggested a brief classroom demonstration for introducing the illusion of
control and the overconfidence phenomenon. It provides an excellent introduction to Ellen Langer’s
research on gambling behavior and on how we are easily seduced into believing we can beat chance.
Ask for nine volunteers to participate in a brief card game. (You might inform the class that it’s
nonthreatening—they’ll not even have to leave their seats.) Having identified the participants, present a
standard deck of playing cards and announce that the student drawing the highest card will win $1.00.
Distribute a sheet of paper to each student and tell the volunteers that after they have their cards, but
before looking at them, they are to estimate their confidence in winning from 0 percent (absolutely no
chance) to 100 percent (I’m certain I have the highest card). Tell them not to sign their sheets and indicate
that you will not reveal their own individual estimate. For the first person, draw a card from the deck. For
the second, and alternating thereafter, allow the student to select his or her own card. After all students
have a card and have indicated their probability estimates, collect the sheets of paper, carefully keeping
the judgments of those given a card separate from those who picked their own card. After you have
identified the winner and awarded the prize, calculate the mean estimates of the two groups. Dollinger
reported that in his class those choosing their own card were significantly more confident of winning (M
= 55 percent) than those whose card was assigned (M = 45 percent). Both groups were wildly
overconfident given the base rate odds of about 11 percent.
Copyright © 2015 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without
the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 9
Finally, tabulate the post-treatment results for both the low and high aspiration groups. Students will
immediately see the regression toward the average effect. The post-treatment test scores for the high
group will be lower and those for the low group will be higher.
7. Illusory Correlations
(http://jonathan.mueller.faculty.noctrl.edu/crow/IllusoryCorrelationDemonstration.ppt)
The above link takes you to an excellent PowerPoint demonstration adapted and developed by Marcel
Yoder. You can instruct students to go to this link and complete the activity, or you can use this as an in-
class activity. As Yoder suggests and research has demonstrated, this illusory correlation between
distinctive events can also be connected to stereotyping and prejudice.
Copyright © 2015 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without
the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 10
MACHINERY....” Most will be trapped by expectations into pronouncing the last word as a
fictitious Scottish surname.
B. Fabricated memories. Roediger III and McDermott’s (1995) research demonstrated how easily
we form false memories. To begin, you might tell students that you are going to demonstrate the
superiority of recognition over recall memory. Ask them to listen carefully as you read a list of
words. Then present the following words at about 1.5 second intervals:
note
sound
piano
sing
radio
melody
horn
concert
instrument
symphony
jazz
orchestra
art
rhythm
After reading the words, ask students to write down as many of them as they can recall on a blank
sheet of paper. Then distribute a copy of Demonstration 3-3 to the students and have them
complete it. Students are certain to recognize words that they did not recall, demonstrating the
superiority of recognition over recall. Finally, for the false memory, ask how many recalled and
wrote down the word music. Also ask how many gave music on the handout a “3” or “4”? As
many as half are likely to have recalled music and even more will say they recognized it.
C. Memory construction. Allport and Postman’s (1947) classic book, The Psychology of Rumor,
provides many examples of memory construction, and of assimilating events (interpreting and
recalling them in ways compatible with our existing beliefs). Explain to the class that you are
going to hand out, to the first person in each row, a paragraph to read (Demonstration 3-4). After
the first person in each row has read it, he or she is to turn it over and write down on a piece of
paper what they remember. This description is then read by the second person in the row who,
after turning it face down, writes down as much as he or she can recall on a second sheet of paper.
The procedure is repeated until reaching the last persons—who then will read their descriptions to
the class after the original has been read aloud. What types of changes have been introduced?
Does the knife ever shift (as it did in Allport and Postman’s research) into the hand of the black
person? If so, you may want to point out that the last person in the row is not necessarily
responsible for any given change in the story.
Sheldon Lachman (1984) suggested a similar demonstration that can be carried out during a regular
classroom lecture. A short story is whispered from one student to another until everyone has participated.
With a class of 35, the process is easily completed in a 50-minute session. At the start of the class session,
students count off in order and place their number at the top of a blank sheet of paper. Take the first
student out of the room (or out of earshot) and ask her to listen closely to the story because she will have
to write down all she can recall on the sheet of paper. Proceed to read the following:
A crowded city bus stopped at Belmont Park at 4:30 p.m. Among the passengers were two males who
stood next to each other toward the front of the bus. One was a tall, well-dressed black carrying a
briefcase. The other had a knife in his belt and was shaking his left fist.
After she has finished writing, she is to whisper her written report to the second student, who repeats the
same steps. At the end of the period, write the story on the board beside the story written by the last
Copyright © 2015 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without
the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 11
student. Collect all of the story transcriptions and place them in order. You can analyze them for the
distortions identified by Allport and Postman or, better yet, type and duplicate the protocols for analysis
in class. In addition to assimilation, Allport and Postman identified two other common distortions: 1)
leveling, in which perceivers drop certain details because they do not fit their cognitive categories or
assumptions; and, 2) sharpening, where the details of the story that are consistent with the values and
interpretations of the observer are emphasized.
Copyright © 2015 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without
the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 12
Demonstration 8-1
Which of the following are the more frequent causes of death in the United States?
1. Homicide or diabetes?
I feel percent sure of my answer.*
2. Flood or infectious hepatitis?
I feel percent sure of my answer.
3. All accidents or strokes?
I feel percent sure of my answer.
4. All cancers or heart disease?
I feel percent sure of my answer.
5. Tornados or asthma?
I feel percent sure of my answer.
6. Drowning or leukemia?
I feel percent sure of my answer.
7. Lightning or appendicitis?
I feel percent sure of my answer.
8. Motor vehicle accident or cancer of the digestive system?
I feel percent sure of my answer.
*Estimates can range from 50 percent (I’m guessing—it’s 50-50) to 100 percent (I’m absolutely sure).
Copyright © 2015 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without
the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 13
Demonstration 8-2
(with permission from J. Brink)
The Psychology Department chairman would like you to know that some of our Psychology majors will
need help in the somewhat tedious but necessary task of coding and collating data from their experimental
projects. The Department is trying to get an idea as to whether these students can count on some of you
for help. Will you volunteer some of your time to help these students in the near future? If so, you will be
contacted within the next couple weeks.
Copyright © 2015 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without
the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 14
Demonstration 8-2
(with permission from J. Brink)
The Psychology Department chairman would like you to know that some of our Psychology majors will
need help in the somewhat tedious but necessary task of coding and collating data from their experimental
projects. The Department is trying to get an idea as to whether these students can count on some of you
for help. The Department is not asking for a commitment right now, but if you were to be asked, would
you volunteer some of your time to help these students in the near future?
Copyright © 2015 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without
the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 15
FILMS/VIDEOS
Copyright © 2015 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without
the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 16