1.

Stock market analysis

1.1. Evaluate and analyze the overall situation of the stock market in the banking industry.
- At the end of the last trading session of the week 6/5-9/6, VN-Index remained in green when it increased by 6.21
points to 1,107.53 points, which is also the highest increase in more than 1 year. In which, banking stocks
continued to actively contribute to the growth of the market as most stocks increased in price. Specifically, ACB
shares connected to set a new peak at VND 147.500/share; many banking stocks increased by 2-4% such as LPB,
TCB, STB, VIB...
- According to Mr. Matthew Smith, Research Director of Institutional Banking, Yuanta Securities Vietnam, the
stock market is showing many good signals, namely the Golden Cross signal has appeared. “The VNIndex MA50
crossed above the MA200 on Thursday, June 15. We take this as a solid signal of a breakout over the past two
weeks – despite a negative sell-off late Friday. This seems to be a sell-in reaction to the latest the State Bank of
Vietnam's announcement of an interest rate cut.The past doesn't always repeat itself, but after a golden cross
(Golden Cross) of VNIndex appeared (in September 2020), the market increased +68% within the next 15
months" said Matthew Smith.
Forecast trend of Vn-Index on 22/6
Securities firm Positive Neutral Negative
AGRISECO X    
KBSV X    
YUANTA X    
VCBS   X  
CTS     X
- KBSV securities: The bottom-fishing demand once again increased around the support level near 1.105-1.110,
helped the index recover soon after a swinging and struggling span. VN-Index is likely to continue gaining
momentum in the next sessions and retest the old peak around 1.125-1.130. Investors are recommended to
continue to apply the revolving trading strategy, hold a part of the position and combine buying at support - selling
at resistance according to each individual code with the rest of the position.
- ACBS securities:
• From a technical perspective, ACB stock has shown positive signs recently. The demand at the end of the session
has helped the stock form a green candle, indicating a gain and recovery in its price. Both the daily and hourly
chart frames have shown positive upward signals, as indicated by the trend strength indicator lines DI+ and ADX
in the daily chart, which are still at high levels. This suggests that the market is still in an uptrend

 However, it's worth noting that the MACD and RSI indicators on the hourly chart have only formed one
bottom after a series of correction sessions. Therefore, ACB stock may experience some volatility and
consolidation in the short term. ACBS recommends that investors maintain their stock holdings and
consider increasing their positions during correction sessions rather than chasing after strong gaining
sessions.

-SHB securities :
In terms of technical analysis, SHB stock is currently facing some challenges. The overall strength of the VN-
Index, which includes SHB, has shown signs of weakening in the short term, particularly in the resistance area of
1,125 - 1,135 points. This weakening scenario is supported by several technical indicators that have also indicated
a downward movement, confirming the ongoing short-term correction. As a result, it is likely that the VN-Index,
including SHB stock, will retreat to the support level of 1,092 points or the threshold of 1,078 points before
resuming its upward trend. Investors should be aware of these potential levels and consider their investment
strategies accordingly.
1.2. Factors affecting stock price volatility in the market
1.2.1. Supply and demand for stock market
- If a company is doing well and everyone wants to buy shares of the same company, there will be a shortage of
shares, leading to the shooting up of the stock price of the company. And the opposite happens if there are too
many shares available, but no one wants to buy them. The stock price will plummet in that case
1.2.2. Company related factors of stock market
- If the company is on the rise, with successful product launches, increased revenue, reduced debt, then the stock
price of the company is bound to increase, because everyone would want to buy shares of such a company that is
going from strength to strength.
1.2.3. Investor sentiment for stock market
- If investors are taking greater risks and investing aggressively, then stock prices will go up. On the other hand, if
investors are more subdued, choosing safety over risk, then the stock prices will come down
1.2.4. Interest rates affecting stock market
- The State Bank of Vietnam decides the interest rates in Vietnam and they keep changing it at regular intervals to
stabilise Vietnam economy.
- A higher interest rate will mean that companies will have to pay more for loans, resulting in lesser profitsà this
will reduce stock prices. Inversely, lower interest rates mean that the company can now borrow money from banks
for much lesser costs, thus saving their money and making a higher profità the price of stock will go up.
1.2.5. Current events that affect stock market
- Including any political turmoil, civil war or riots, or terrorist attacks. All these events are bound to make stock
prices go down drastically and affect the market volatility.
1.2.6. International factors (foreign strategic partners)
- With a very information-sensitive market like Vietnam's stock market, information about the moves of strategic
shareholders of banks will receive a lot of attention from domestic investors. Any change in the percentage of
bank shares owned by these institutions will have a great impact on investors' buying and selling decisions.
1.3. Compare and evaluate the performance of the securities market in the banking industry and the oil and
gas industry
a. Stabilization:
Bank stock market: Banks often have high stability in the stock market. Banks are often considered an integral
part of the financial and economic system and are prioritized by economic and monetary policy. However, in the
event of a financial crisis, the banking industry could be hit hard.
Oil and gas stock market: The oil and gas industry is less stable. Oil and gas companies often face risks due to
fluctuations in world oil prices, policy changes in oil-producing countries and political factors. Oil prices can
fluctuate sharply, causing instability in the oil and gas industry's stock market
b. Growth:
Bank stock market: The banking industry usually has stable growth. Banks play an important role in providing
capital for businesses and individuals. Economic development and increasing demand for loans through banking
services both affect the growth of the banking industry.
Oil and gas stock market: Growth of the oil and gas industry can be highly variable. While the industry has great
profit potential, its growth depends on oil prices, political factors, the ability to find and exploit new oil, as well as
the transition to renewable energy.
c. Investment risk:
Bank stock market: Investing in the banking industry usually carries less risk. Risks are often related to credit risk,
risks related to monetary and financial policies, as well as the risk management ability of banks.
Oil and gas stock market: Investing in the oil and gas industry carries higher risks. Risks include oil price
fluctuations, environmental risks and policy decisions of oil-producing countries. The oil and gas market may also
be affected by changes in oil extraction, storage and transportation technologies.
d. Profit potential:
Banking stock market: Profits in the banking industry are generally stable, but tend to be relatively lower than in
other industries. The banking industry is typically profitable based on borrowing and lending rates, financial
services, and related fees.
Oil and gas stock market: The oil and gas industry has great profit potential. The profitability of oil and gas
companies depends on oil prices, production efficiency and cost management. When the price of oil rises, the
profits of this industry also tend to increase.

2. The banking industry in Vietnam has experienced significant growth and development in recent years. It plays a
crucial role in supporting the country's economic expansion. Some of the largest banks in Vietnam include
Vietcombank, BIDV, Techcombank, and VietinBank.

When analyzing the stock market of the banking industry in Vietnam, several factors can influence stock price
movements:

 Macroeconomic Factors: The overall economic conditions of Vietnam, including GDP growth, inflation
rates, interest rates, and government policies, can impact the banking industry's performance and
consequently affect stock prices.
 Regulatory Environment: Changes in regulations and policies by the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) or
other regulatory bodies can significantly impact the banking industry. For example, stricter lending
regulations or capital requirements can influence profitability and stock prices.
 Financial Performance: Investors closely monitor the financial performance of banks, including metrics
such as net interest margin, loan quality, asset quality, and profitability ratios. Positive financial results
can drive stock prices up, while negative results may lead to declines.
  Loan Portfolio Quality: The quality of a bank's loan portfolio, including non-performing loan (NPL)
ratios and provisions for loan losses, is crucial. Higher NPL ratios can signal potential credit risks,
negatively affecting investor confidence and stock prices.
 Interest Rates: Changes in interest rates can have a significant impact on the banking industry's
profitability. Banks generally benefit from higher interest rates, as it allows them to generate more
income from lending activities. Conversely, lower interest rates can put pressure on profitability.
 Foreign Investment and Capital Flows: Foreign investments and capital flows into Vietnam can influence
the banking industry and stock prices. Increased foreign investor interest can lead to higher demand for
banking stocks.
 Market Sentiment and Investor Confidence: General market sentiment, investor confidence, and global
economic conditions can affect stock prices across all industries, including banking. Positive or negative
sentiment can impact investor decisions and influence stock price movements.

1. Stock market analysis

1.1. Evaluate and analyze the overall situation of the stock market in the banking industry.

- At the end of the last trading session of the week 6/5-9/6, VN-Index remained in green when it increased by 6.21
points to 1,107.53 points, which is also the highest increase in more than 1 year. In which, banking stocks
continued to actively contribute to the growth of the market as most stocks increased in price. Specifically, ACB
shares connected to set a new peak at VND 147.500/share; many banking stocks increased by 2-4% such as LPB,
TCB, STB, VIB...

- According to Mr. Matthew Smith, Research Director of Institutional Banking, Yuanta Securities Vietnam, the
stock market is showing many good signals, namely the Golden Cross signal has appeared. “The VNIndex MA50
crossed above the MA200 on Thursday, June 15. We take this as a solid signal of a breakout over the past two
weeks – despite a negative sell-off late Friday. This seems to be a sell-in reaction to the latest the State Bank of
Vietnam's announcement of an interest rate cut.The past doesn't always repeat itself, but after a golden cross
(Golden Cross) of VNIndex appeared (in September 2020), the market increased +68% within the next 15
months" said Matthew Smith.

Forecast trend of Vn-Index on 22/6

Securities Positive Neutra Negative

firm l

AGRISECO X    

KBSV X    

YUANTA X    

VCBS   X  

CTS     X

- KBSV securities: The bottom-fishing demand once again increased around the support level near 1.105-1.110,
helped the index recover soon after a swinging and struggling span. VN-Index is likely to continue gaining
momentum in the next sessions and retest the old peak around 1.125-1.130. Investors are recommended to
continue to apply the revolving trading strategy, hold a part of the position and combine buying at support - selling
at resistance according to each individual code with the rest of the position.
- ACBS securities:

• From a technical perspective, ACB stock has shown positive signs recently. The demand at the end of the session
has helped the stock form a green candle, indicating a gain and recovery in its price. Both the daily and hourly
chart frames have shown positive upward signals, as indicated by the trend strength indicator lines DI+ and ADX
in the daily chart, which are still at high levels. This suggests that the market is still in an uptrend

·       However, it's worth noting that the MACD and RSI indicators on the hourly chart have only formed one
bottom after a series of correction sessions. Therefore, ACB stock may experience some volatility and
consolidation in the short term. ACBS recommends that investors maintain their stock holdings and consider
increasing their positions during correction sessions rather than chasing after strong gaining sessions.

-SHB securities :

In terms of technical analysis, SHB stock is currently facing some challenges. The overall strength of the VN-
Index, which includes SHB, has shown signs of weakening in the short term, particularly in the resistance area of
1,125 - 1,135 points. This weakening scenario is supported by several technical indicators that have also indicated
a downward movement, confirming the ongoing short-term correction. As a result, it is likely that the VN-Index,
including SHB stock, will retreat to the support level of 1,092 points or the threshold of 1,078 points before
resuming its upward trend. Investors should be aware of these potential levels and consider their investment
strategies accordingly.

1.2. Factors affecting stock price volatility in the market

1.2.1. Supply and demand for stock market

- If a company is doing well and everyone wants to buy shares of the same company, there will be a shortage of
shares, leading to the shooting up of the stock price of the company. And the opposite happens if there are too
many shares available, but no one wants to buy them. The stock price will plummet in that case

1.2.2. Company related factors of stock market

- If the company is on the rise, with successful product launches, increased revenue, reduced debt, then the stock
price of the company is bound to increase, because everyone would want to buy shares of such a company that is
going from strength to strength.

1.2.3. Investor sentiment for stock market

- If investors are taking greater risks and investing aggressively, then stock prices will go up. On the other hand, if
investors are more subdued, choosing safety over risk, then the stock prices will come down

1.2.4. Interest rates affecting stock market

- The State Bank of Vietnam decides the interest rates in Vietnam and they keep changing it at regular intervals to
stabilise Vietnam economy.

- A higher interest rate will mean that companies will have to pay more for loans, resulting in lesser profitsà this
will reduce stock prices. Inversely, lower interest rates mean that the company can now borrow money from banks
for much lesser costs, thus saving their money and making a higher profità the price of stock will go up.

1.2.5. Current events that affect stock market

- Including any political turmoil, civil war or riots, or terrorist attacks. All these events are bound to make stock
prices go down drastically and affect the market volatility.

1.2.6. International factors (foreign strategic partners)

- With a very information-sensitive market like Vietnam's stock market, information about the moves of strategic
shareholders of banks will receive a lot of attention from domestic investors. Any change in the percentage of
bank shares owned by these institutions will have a great impact on investors' buying and selling decisions.

1.3. Compare and evaluate the performance of the securities market in the banking industry and the oil and
gas industry

a. Stabilization:

Bank stock market: Banks often have high stability in the stock market. Banks are often considered an integral
part of the financial and economic system and are prioritized by economic and monetary policy. However, in the
event of a financial crisis, the banking industry could be hit hard.

Oil and gas stock market: The oil and gas industry is less stable. Oil and gas companies often face risks due to
fluctuations in world oil prices, policy changes in oil-producing countries and political factors. Oil prices can
fluctuate sharply, causing instability in the oil and gas industry's stock market

b. Growth:

Bank stock market: The banking industry usually has stable growth. Banks play an important role in providing
capital for businesses and individuals. Economic development and increasing demand for loans through banking
services both affect the growth of the banking industry.

Oil and gas stock market: Growth of the oil and gas industry can be highly variable. While the industry has great
profit potential, its growth depends on oil prices, political factors, the ability to find and exploit new oil, as well as
the transition to renewable energy.

c. Investment risk:

Bank stock market: Investing in the banking industry usually carries less risk. Risks are often related to credit risk,
risks related to monetary and financial policies, as well as the risk management ability of banks.

Oil and gas stock market: Investing in the oil and gas industry carries higher risks. Risks include oil price
fluctuations, environmental risks and policy decisions of oil-producing countries. The oil and gas market may also
be affected by changes in oil extraction, storage and transportation technologies.

d. Profit potential:

Banking stock market: Profits in the banking industry are generally stable, but tend to be relatively lower than in
other industries. The banking industry is typically profitable based on borrowing and lending rates, financial
services, and related fees.

Oil and gas stock market: The oil and gas industry has great profit potential. The profitability of oil and gas
companies depends on oil prices, production efficiency and cost management. When the price of oil rises, the
profits of this industry also tend to increase.

2. SHB

-       Name: Saigon – Hanoi Commercial Joint Stock Bank

-       Abbreviation name: SHB

-       Securities code: SHB (listed at the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange – HOSE)

- History: 

In 1993, Saigon Hanoi Commercial Joint Stock Bank (SHB) was established in Can Tho with the initial name of
Nhon Ai Rural Commercial Joint Stock Bank.
In 2006, SHB was renamed to the current SHB and restructured its operations.

2008: Moving the headquarters to Hanoi was a big turning point in the development of SHB.

2009: The Bank listed its shares on the Hanoi Stock Exchange.

2011: Increased charter capital to nearly 5 trillion VND. The State Bank of Vietnam has agreed to open branches
in Cambodia and Laos. 2012: SHB opened a branch in Cambodia with a total investment of 37 million USD and a
branch in Laos with a charter capital of 104 billion kip.

2013: Second prize for beautiful photos on the occasion of SHB's 20 years old.

2014: SHB is present in more than 40 states and cities, as well as Laos and Cambodia. Participating in capital
support in many important areas.

2015: Increase charter capital to 9.5 trillion VND.

The bank opened a subsidiary in Laos on January 15, 2016 and a subsidiary in Cambodia on September 9, 2016.
In December 2016, successfully merged with Vinaconex Viettel (VVF) to establish SHB Company Limited.

- Branch network coverage: 

 SHB currently has a total of more than 262 branches/transaction offices in 44 provinces and cities across
the country.
 The two big cities with the most branches and transaction offices are Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City.
 In addition to branches and transaction offices in the country, SHB also has subsidiaries in Cambodia and
Laos.
- Services and Business sector:
Services Business sector
Foreign exchange in domestic and international Deposits
markets in accordance with relevant regulations
Commodity price derivatives within the scope Loans
prescribed by the State Bank of Vietnam

Settlement and banknotes; Guarantees

Correspondent banking Credit cards

Other services as per the bank’s Business Domestic and foreign factoring
Registration.
  Discounting, re-discounting of bills
and other valuable papers
  Other forms of credit grant in
accordance with legal regulations;

2.1. Fundamental analysis

a) Experienced management team and BoarD with deep industry expertise:

b) Competitive advantages 

At SHB, in 2022, the parent bank's individual pre-tax profit reached VND 9,539.1 billion, up 61.3% compared to
2021.
With the average number of employees in 2022 reaching 5,300 people, on average each employee at SHB brings
in VND 1.8 billion in profit, belonging to the group of banks that own a team of employees who have the ability to
make money every day. leading in the market (only after VPBank, MB, Techcombank) according to VietTimes
survey.

SHB continued to maintain the position of Top 5 most profitable private joint stock commercial banks
Accordingly, by the end of June 30, 2022, SHB's total assets reached VND 522,131 billion, completing 91.7% of
the plan. in 2022. Charter capital will reach VND 26,674 billion, equity capital will reach VND 58,763 billion,
capital adequacy ratio according to Basel II standards will reach nearly 12%, Moody's credit rating will reach B1
– positive outlook. SHB's total mobilized capital reached VND 471,160 billion, credit balance reached VND
390,554 billion, both targets completed 93% of the 2022 plan.
As of December 31, 2022, SHB's total assets reached nearly VND 551 trillion, among the Top 5 largest private
joint stock commercial banks in Vietnam; total mobilized capital reached more than 407 trillion dong; credit
balance is nearly 399 trillion dong; equity buffer reached nearly 63 trillion dong according to Basel II standards. 

c) ROE, ROA

Saigon Commercial Joint Stock Bank - Hanoi (SHB) announced its financial statements for the fourth
quarter of 2022 with a full-year pre-tax profit of VND 9,659 billion, up 54% over the previous year.
SHB's total business income reached more than 19,371 billion VND, up 7% over the same period. In
which, the main contribution is still income from interest with VND 17,529 billion, up 13%.
Net profit from service activities also increased by 51% over the same period, reaching 882 billion. The
segment of capital contribution and share purchase brought the bank 4.2 billion, up 13% compared to
last year.
d) CIR 

e) NIM
NIM – Strong improvement despite headwinds. SHB's NIM has achieved impressive improvement thanks to: (1)
LTM Return on Profitable Assets reached 8.74%, among the top 25% of banks; (2) SHB was selected by
international organizations and governments as the on-lending bank and servicing bank with a funding source of
2.55 billion USD in 2021, which is the basis for SHB to reduce capital costs and NIM support. 

It is estimated that SHB's 2022 NIM will improve by 5 bps to 3.76% thanks to (1) Good interest rate customer
ecosystem lending products; (2) Mobilizing cheap sources from international financial institutions.

Case study of risks that ACB bank had to face in the past.

- In August 2012, ACB experienced many great shocks, Mr. Nguyen Duc Kien, former Vice
Chairman of ACB's Founding Council, was arrested and detained to investigate violations in
economic activities. And after Bau Kien was arrested, Mr. Ly Xuan Hai - former General
Director of ACB was also detained, former Chairman of the Board of Directors - Tran Xuan
Gia and 3 former Vice Chairman of ACB Board of Directors were respectively freed from the
crime. and prosecuted.
The reason was because of illegal business activities of 03 companies, led by Mr. Nguyen Duc
Kien and Mr. Ly Xuan Hai, who were also detained for 4 months on charges of intentionally
violating regulations. The bank suffered heavy losses. on gold, assets decreased, etc. This has
significantly affected the operation and reputation of the bank. The incident caused confusion
and concern in the financial world and had a significant impact on ACB. ACB's shares on the
stock exchange plummeted, the bank had difficulty in collecting debts and maintaining
liquidity.
4.1. Risk cause
- Nguyen Duc Kien and related individuals hold shares and control a series of banks such as
Vietbank, ACB, Sacombank... through cross-investment, forming a widespread network of
ownership and borrowing.
=> Controlling and manipulating the Vietnamese currency market.
- The main cause of the risk is the fraudulent gold trading activities that ACB and related
individuals participate in, creating fake gold transactions that make the bank's transaction
system lack of transparency.
- Inadequate internal control has facilitated fraudulent and abusive acts.
- Lack of supervision and intervention by regulatory agencies, especially the State Bank, has
allowed fraudulent and illegal activities to take place for a long time.
- During that period, ACB increased its lending activities and expanded its customer portfolio.
However, the risk management and debt control are not tight, leading to uncollectible debt.
- Overdependence on key individuals like Nguyen Duc Kien has created a centralized power
environment, lacking the distribution of power.
4.2. Impact of those risks on the stock market
- Investors have difficulty in buying and selling stocks, negatively affecting the liquidity of
the stock market.
- At the end of the morning session on August 21, VN-Index dropped 20.73 points, equivalent
to 4.74%, the strongest drop in many years, down to 416.53 points. HNX-Index also dropped
further by 5.32%, equivalent to 3.76 points, to 66.89 points.
After two trading sessions since the news of Mr. Nguyen Duc Kien's arrest, VN-Index lost a
total of 27.05 points, equivalent to a decrease of nearly 6.2%. HNX-Index dropped 6 points,
equivalent to a decrease of nearly 8.5%.
- According to statistics, on HOSE, market capitalization as of August 22 reached 653,314.41
billion VND, down 41,225 billion VND compared to 694,539.84 billion VND on August 20.
- On the HNX, the total market capitalization reached VND 93,683.11 billion, down more
than VND 7,984 billion compared to August 20.
- In the past two days, Vietnam's listed stock market "evaporated" more than 49,200 billion
VND, equivalent to more than 2.3 billion USD. The downtrend lasted for more than 3 months,
VNINDEX dropped from 437 points to 375 points, equivalent to a decrease of 15%.
4.3. The impact of such risks on ACB
- Immediately after the incident was announced, ACB's stock fell more than 13% in 2
sessions, down to 22,500 VND/share as of August 22, 2012. In addition, the market
capitalization "evaporated" nearly 3,200 billion VND (152 billion VND). U.S. DOLLAR).
ACB stock fell to the floor, there were no buyers.
The Stock Price of ACB from 2007 to 2020.

At the end of 2011, ACB's total assets reached over 280,000 trillion Vietnamese dong,
solidifying its position as the largest private bank in the market. However, after Mr. Kien was
arrested, the bank's total assets decreased by nearly 40%, reaching only over 176,000 trillion
Vietnamese dong by the end of 2012.
- The loans and customer deposits at ACB from 2010 to 2021.

In 2012, nearly 17,000 trillion Vietnamese dong in deposits were withdrawn from ACB.
However, after two years, the mobilization of deposits at ACB began to stabilize and grow
steadily.
-
The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of ACB from 2010 to 2021.

Before Mr. Kien's arrest, ACB had a domestic non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of
0.89%, which placed it among the banks with good risk management at that time.
However, by the end of 2012, the bank's NPL ratio had surged to 2.5% and continued to
increase to a peak of 3.03% in 2013.

-
The pre-tax profit of ACB from 2010 to 2018.

During the years 2010-2011, ACB consistently ranked among the top two private banks
with the highest profits. However, after the event involving Mr. Kien occurred, ACB's
profits plunged from 4,200 trillion Vietnamese dong to just over 1,000 trillion
Vietnamese