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Financial Times (UK Edition) No. 41,377 (17 Jul 2023)
Financial Times (UK Edition) No. 41,377 (17 Jul 2023)
90
US Supreme Court rulings may not be all bad Breaking the barriers to more female CEOs
RANA FOROOHAR, PAGE 23 WORK & CAREERS, PAGE 18
after Sony signs Call of Duty licence Business Life column and the
FT crossword can today be found
on Page 12.
Datawatch
3 Truce called after 18-month battle 3 Path opened to $75bn purchase 3 Regulatory hurdles cleared Do me a favour
% who say corruption is widespread
in their country 2022 2023
RICHARD WATERS — SAN FRANCISCO Phil Spencer, head of Microsoft’s it claimed it would hurt competition by earlier licensing offers included games Late last month in its court battle with
TIM BRADSHAW — LONDON
Xbox gaming division, said on Twitter giving Microsoft the power to make Call for both the PlayStation console and the FTC, Microsoft pointed to an email Finland
Microsoft was close to sealing its conten- that the companies had signed “a bind- of Duty exclusive to its own Xbox game PlayStation Plus subscription service. from PlayStation chief Jim Ryan reas- Germany
tious $75bn purchase of Activision Bliz- ing agreement to keep Call of Duty on console and other services. The US Fed- The software company claimed Sony suring a colleague that the software Romania
zard with the announcement yesterday PlayStation following the acquisition”. eral Trade Commission had argued in had refused the licence and tried to company was not likely to turn Activi- Italy
that arch-rival Sony had signed a licence Sony later confirmed the new licence, court that the acquisition would hurt block its deal for competitive reasons, sion games into Xbox exclusives. In later Spain
for the games company’s most popular though both sides refused to give fur- competition in the console, subscription rather than out of genuine concern for video testimony shown during the hear- Malta
title. ther details. and cloud streaming markets. how it might hurt gamers. ing, Ryan said he changed his view after Greece
The agreement over Activision’s Call The pact appeared to resolve Sony’s Microsoft has already signed 10-year A last-ditch attempt by US regulators seeing details of the terms Microsoft was EU
of Duty signalled a truce between the two biggest complaint over the acquisition: licences for Activision games with other to prevent the deal from closing failed proposing. 0 25 50 75 100
Source: Eurobarometer
giants after a bruising 18-month battle companies, including Nintendo, an unu- on Friday. The UK’s Competition and Microsoft had appealed the CMA’s
in which the Japanese company became sually long period that it claims proves Markets Authority put its opposition to April decision to block the deal but last More than two-thirds of Europeans
the biggest opponent to the acquisition,
The software company its intention to continue to make Activi- the deal on hold to give Microsoft a fresh week both parties requested that the believe corruption is widespread in their
which is expected to reshape the gaming claimed the Japanese group sion’s games widely available. chance to resolve its complaints. CAT postpone that case as they re- country, an uptick of two percentage
points since last year, according to a new
industry. The pact came after Microsoft Sony had earlier declined a Microsoft The companies and the CMA will opened negotiations.
made regulatory breakthroughs on both
was trying to block the deal offer to license Activision’s games, add- meet before the Competition Appeal The CAT had not yet responded to poll from Eurobarometer. Malta has seen
the biggest rise in this perception
sides of the Atlantic last week, leaving it for competitive reasons ing fuel to regulatory attempts in the US Tribunal for a case management confer- that request ahead of today’s hearing.
on brink of clinching victory. and UK to block the deal. Microsoft’s ence today. FT View page 22
World Markets
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2 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES Monday 17 July 2023
NATIONAL
Consultants
Transatlantic inflation gap set to widen to go on strike
Disparity likely to be at its that last month’s CPI reading for the UK, US-style labour shortages for the UK measures have tended to track one 5.5 per cent, with price growth in Spain
for first time
biggest since stagnation
due on Wednesday, will come in at
above 8 per cent.
becoming the G7 economy most
plagued by inflation.
another. But over the past year, a gap has
emerged. US inflation began declining
falling even below the European Central
Bank’s target of 2 per cent.
in 10 years
and political strife of 1970s As of Friday afternoon, economists “Inflation is higher in the UK than the during the autumn of 2022 after hitting The widening gap between the UK
polled by Reuters expected, on average, US because it has suffered a worse its highest level in decades last June on and the US comes despite the Bank of
VALENTINA ROMEI a figure of 8.2 per cent for June. If they energy shock, worse labour shortages, the back of falling energy costs and England abandoning its near-zero inter- ANNA GROSS AND PHILIP GEORGIADIS
are right, that would mean UK inflation and goods inflation rose later and subse- slowing food inflation, while UK infla- est rate policy ahead of the Federal
Hospital consultants are stepping up
The gulf between price pressures in the is now 5.2 percentage points higher than quently started to fall later than in the tion continued to climb during the Reserve. The Fed first raised rates in
their plans for strikes as rail workers
US and the UK is likely to widen to levels in the US, the widest gap since Novem- US,” said Simon MacAdam, economist autumn, on the back of a surge in Euro- March 2022, while the BoE’s increases
prepare to walk out again, in moves
not seen since the late 1970s this week, ber 1977, when the country was beset by at research firm Capital Economics. pean energy prices and accelerating began in the autumn of 2021. But the
that highlight the UK continuing to
as Britain increasingly becomes a global economic stagnation and political strife. Food price inflation, another impor- services price growth. Fed moved more quickly once it started
contend with industrial action over
inflationary outlier. “The drop in US inflation shines a tant aspect of the surge in global prices, While UK inflation has declined since to tighten, raising rates by 5 percentage
pay.
Figures out last week confirmed that light on the UK’s persistent inflation has fallen faster in the US and much of hitting a peak of 11.1 per cent in October, points in little more than a year.
US consumer price inflation is abating problem,” said Victoria Scholar at Inter- Europe, partly because of Britain’s reli- it has done so less dramatically than The ECB did not begin raising interest Consultants who are members of the
fast, with the annual figure for June fall- active Investor, an online investment ance on imports and weather limiting elsewhere in Europe. In the eurozone, rates until the summer of 2022. British Medical Association will be
ing to a two-year low of 3 per cent. That service. Economists blame a combina- crop supplies. where inflation hit a high of 10.6 per cent Market Questions page 10 striking in England this week for the
contrasts with economists’ expectations tion of EU-style high energy prices and Historically the US and UK inflation last October, the annual rate is now Ruchir Sharma page 23 first time in over a decade, shortly after
junior doctors end an unprecedented
five-day walkout.
As well as strikes by consultants
Trade. Divergence scheduled for Thursday and Friday, the
BMA said today they would also walk
NATIONAL
INTERNATIONAL
Triumphant
EU presses biggest polluters to hasten cuts Alcaraz takes
Brussels faces own fight the costs of the necessary green shift in
the energy system.
closely by the EU. The bloc’s share of glo-
bal greenhouse gas emissions dropped
cent by 2030 to keep alive the Paris goal
of limiting global temperature rises to
Draft text being prepared by EU coun-
tries ahead of COP28, seen by the FT,
Wimbledon
over setting 2040 target
to reduce emissions
The move comes as temperatures
climb towards 40C across much of Italy,
from 16.8 per cent in 1990 to 7.3 per cent
in 2021, according to European Com-
1.5C above pre-industrial levels.
The world remains on track for a tem-
shows that a section committing the
bloc to update its contribution from 55
crown from
ALICE HANCOCK AND ANDY BOUNDS
BRUSSELS
Spain, parts of France, Greece and the
Balkans. Meteorologists predict that
Rome could tomorrow experience an
mission data. The EU cut emissions by
about a third, mainly as dirty coal in the
electricity mix fell, while the share from
perature rise of between 2.4C and 2.6C
by 2100, according to the UN Environ-
ment Programme.
per cent to 57 per cent is bracketed,
meaning that it could be changed before
the UN summit in December.
Djokovic
ATTRACTA MOONEY — LONDON all-time high for the city of 43C, while on China and India rose as energy demands US climate envoy John Kerry is The EU’s main scientific advisory
The EU is putting pressure on big the island of Sardinia the mercury is increased. restarting climate talks in China this board has suggested that it should be set OLIVER BARNES
polluting countries to cut greenhouse projected to touch 48C. Italian authori- But the EU is now struggling with week. Environment ministers from G20 as high as 95 per cent. Lawmakers are
Young Spanish tennis star Carlos
gas emissions faster as the bloc faces ties urged citizens to stay indoors in the internal discussions over setting a 2040 countries, including China, met in Brus- concerned that a backlash against the
Alcaraz defeated Novak Djokovic in an
an internal fight about its own climate middle of the day. target to reduce emissions. sels last week to set the agenda for the green transition could grow as EU indus-
epic five-set battle to win his first Wim-
targets. A wildfire on La Palma, one of the Geopolitical tensions over climate UN COP28 summit in the UAE, where a try is squeezed by US competitors with
bledon final, denying his rival a chance
Senior officials in Brussels told the Spanish Canary Islands off the coast of policies are rising as governments grap- “global stocktake” will take place. lower energy costs and subsidies under
to equal the record for the highest
Financial Times that they wanted large Africa, prompted the evacuation of at ple with overstretched budgets, at the The EU has committed to cut green- the Inflation Reduction Act, and China’s
number of Grand Slam wins.
economies such as China, India and the least 4,000 people over the weekend. same time as extreme weather raises house gas emissions by 55 per cent by dominance of the supply chain for green
US to share the burden as European The world’s largest emitters today are fears about global warming. 2030 and reach net zero by 2050, with technologies. Staking his claim as a new dominant
consumers and industry begin to balk at the US, China and India, followed Global emissions need to fall by 43 per the 2040 goal intended as a milestone. Opinion see Letters page force in the sport, the 20-year-old world
number one came back from a set down
to beat the 36-year-old Djokovic 3-2
to clinch just his second Grand Slam
Russia. Fake media victory.
Djokovic had not lost on centre court
France
INTERNATIONAL
Diplomacy
Brussels struggles to revive Latin America relations amid rifts on trade and Ukraine
MICHAEL STOTT — LONDON tral position on the Ukraine war, while World interests such as securing critical two decades in the EU’s list of top trad- Despite the EU’s stated desire to bol- the Brussels summit to discuss the dra-
IAN JOHNSTON — BRUSSELS
Cuba and Venezuela are close allies of minerals rather than addressing their ing partners, while the EU has gone from ster relations, some of its proposals lack matic deterioration of human rights in
The EU wants to revive relations with Moscow. Many governments in the big issues, like poverty and inequality. being Brazil’s biggest trading partner to economic weight. At the summit, a list Nicaragua, where President Daniel
Latin America at a summit with the region would prefer to see Europe push “There’s something rather naive and its third-largest. “For us, a successful of about 100 Global Gateway projects Ortega has jailed, tortured and expelled
region’s presidents this week, but harder for peace talks instead of supply- arrogant about saying, ‘We will pay you summit is one that delivers free trade would be touted, the senior EU official opponents.
delays to trade deals and a rift over the ing more weapons to Kyiv. attention now because we’ve suddenly agreements,” said Eleonora Catella, said, but many still lack funding. Cuba and Venezuela have publicly
Ukraine war have underlined their During awkward pre-summit discus- discovered we need friends and want to deputy director of international rela- During last month’s visit, von der denounced the EU for “manipulative
political differences after eight years sions, some Latin American nations project power’,” said one senior diplo- tions at Business Europe. Leyen raised the EU’s pledge of grants behaviour and a lack of transparency”
without a top-level meeting. sought the removal of wording from a mat from the region. and loans from €6bn to €10bn for 2021- ahead of the gathering, accusing Brus-
draft text condemning Russia’s invasion Few expect a breakthrough in the EU- 2027. But this pales beside the €150bn sels of trying to organise parallel events
Concerned by China’s growing eco- of Ukraine and tried to add a demand Mercosur trade agreement. The pact, dedicated to Africa under the scheme. without all the invited nations.
nomic power in one of the world’s big- for reparations for the transatlantic signed in 2019 after two decades of China has made development finance After disagreements between the EU
gest commodity-exporting regions, and slave trade, moves one EU diplomat negotiations, has not been ratified as EU loans totalling $136bn to Latin America and the Community of Latin American
keen to secure supplies of critical miner- described as “provocative”. member states raised concerns that it and the Caribbean from 2005 to 2022. and Caribbean States over the lengthy
als, the EU wants to convince Latin Today’s gathering comes a month could fuel deforestation. Some leaders invited may also prove summit text, EU states are pushing for a
American and Caribbean leaders that after European Commission president Brazil president Luiz Inácio Lula da problematic for the EU. Cuban presi- leaner, less controversial document, but
the two blocs are natural partners. Ursula von der Leyen toured Latin Silva reiterated last week that addi- dent Miguel Díaz-Canel, who has pre- one that will still mention Ukraine.
But a key trade deal between the EU America, meeting the presidents of Bra- tional environmental demands on Mer- sided over the jailing of hundreds of However, Javi López, a Spanish social-
and the South American Mercosur bloc zil, Argentina, Mexico and Chile. She cosur, led by France, were “unaccepta- opposition activists, was likely to ist MEP who chairs the European parlia-
remains stalled, and Ukrainian presi- pledged more funding from Europe’s ble” because they would impose sanc- attend, diplomats said. Venezuela presi- ment’s delegation to the Euro-Latin
dent Volodymyr Zelenskyy will not infrastructure programme, Global tions on Mercosur countries which did dent Nicolás Maduro, currently under American parliamentary assembly,
address the two-day event. Although he Gateway. “Europe is back in Latin not abide by climate commitments. investigation by the International Crim- insisted that after years of neglect, “the
has appeared at recent forums from the America,” she announced. Argentina has backed his position. inal Court for alleged crimes against photo and participation is a success in
Arab League to Nato’s summit, some Latin American nations have wel- Trade groups Business Europe and humanity, is not expected to come. itself”, adding: “The summit is not a
Latin American nations blocked the comed Europe’s increased attention but the Brazilian Confederation of Industry More than 170 Nicaraguan opposition port of arrival, it’s a port of departure.
idea of inviting him to speak in Brussels. expressed concern that the initial sum- have warned meanwhile that India and Brazil trip: Ursula von der Leyen and activists and civil society groups yester- It’s the start of the relaunch of our ties.”
Brazil and Mexico favour a more neu- mit agenda appeared tailored to Old South Korea overtook Brazil in the past Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva last month day called on presidents taking part in Martin Sandbu see Opinion
Monday 17 July 2023 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES 7
INTERNATIONAL
Just say no The thankless, invisible work that eats into time and career priorities is mostly done by women y PILITA CLARK, PAGE 12
earnings will be
of the world’s most lucrative banking
audit contracts after the bank’s take-
over of rival Credit Suisse.
EY, which has been UBS’s external audi-
tor since 1998, will audit the enlarged
bank from 2024, according to people
with knowledge of the decision. The size
of the contract means EY will have to
call in staff from other countries to work
3 Uncertainty over second-quarter profits on the audit, two people said.
UBS’s state-orchestrated takeover of
3 Lender likely to lag behind peers again Credit Suisse was completed last month
but integrating it into the wider group is
expected to take several years.
JOSHUA FRANKLIN AND recent acquisition and losses from its Luxury goods: LVMH is part of the blue-chip Euro Stoxx 50 index, up 14% since January — Dominique Charriau/WireImage PwC, which had been Credit Suisse’s
STEPHEN GANDEL — NEW YORK
consumer and commercial real estate auditor, will audit the stricken bank’s
Analysts are sharply divided over just loan portfolios. Investors opt for protection accounts for 2023, according to people
how bad Goldman Sachs’ second- Analysts are guessing Goldman’s net with knowledge of the matter.
Euro Stoxx 50 put/call ratio
quarter earnings will be, offering a income might be as high as $1.7bn for The audits of UBS and Credit Suisse
much wider range of estimates than is the quarter or as low as $116mn, accord- 2.2 were already among the biggest in
typical for the Wall Street bank. ing to data compiled by Bloomberg, a far Europe. Last year UBS paid EY $70mn
2.0
There is a consensus that it will not be steeper drop than peers. in fees, while Credit Suisse paid PwC
one of Goldman’s best quarters, but On an earnings per share basis, these 1.8 $90mn, according to the banks’ annual
some are predicting it could be one of estimates for Goldman range from as reports. The audit fee for the combined
the bank’s worst. Earnings estimates low as 33 cents to as high as $4.99, far 1.6 group is expected to be less than the
range from Goldman making 33 cents wider than they have for other banks sum of the standalone audits but would
per share and barely eking out a profit, this quarter and the broadest range ana- 1.4 still be one of the highest in banking.
to almost $5 a share and netting more lysts have had for Goldman in more than HSBC paid PwC $148mn last year,
than $1.5bn. two years. On Wall Street, 10 cents a 1.2 while Barclays paid KPMG £71mn. Wall
While it is not uncommon for analysts share can count as a big earnings beat. 2014 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 Street trio Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase
to disagree, the debate over what The unpredictability comes despite Higher ratio suggests investors are looking for protection and Goldman Sachs each paid their
Goldman’s management flagging for Source: Bank of America auditors between $95mn and $103mn,
investors that this quarter would be according to Ideagen Audit Analytics.
‘Goldman cannot afford to challenging for the bank. GEORGE STEER AND MARY MCDOUGALL since January to its highest level since pushed higher so far this year even as EY did not comment on whether it
be a serial offender . . . to It will be another quarter in which LONDON
2007. the European Central Bank has ratch- had been retained by UBS but said: “The
Goldman has lagged behind peers such “Fundamentally, we’re still in a eted up interest rates at unprece- size and scale of the global EY financial
tell investors about more as Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase,
Cautious investors are snapping up
place where [Europe’s] growth out- dented speed to combat inflation. services audit practice means we are
derivatives that would protect them
charges they need to take’ which have other businesses including if this year’s rally in European stocks look isn’t amazing,” said Abhinandan This year’s stock market gains have able to access resource and specialist
wealth management and retail banking crumbles, in a sign of mounting con- Deb, head of global cross asset quant come despite the eurozone economy skills from across our network.”
Goldman, which is led by chief execu- to pick up slack when trading and cerns that slowing economic growth investment strategy at BofA Global sinking into a mild technical recession The firm has 20,000 banking audit
tive David Solomon, will report on investment banking sputter. will weigh on markets sitting close to Research. “People are uncomfortably in June after two consecutive quarters staff globally. Its international opera-
Wednesday is more divided than usual. This will add to the challenges facing record highs. long [Europe], they’re long because of contraction, stoking concerns tions are more closely integrated than
One reason for the uncertainty is that Solomon, Goldman’s chief executive they need to participate but the among investors who worry that the its rivals, making it easier to share
some analysts expect Goldman’s leader- since 2018, who is already dealing with Traders have been buying an increas- fundamental conviction isn’t there. rally rests on shaky foundations. resources across borders, according to
ship to take a “kitchen sink” approach, unrest among many employees and ing number of “put” options, which No one wants to chase this market so “The whole bounceback of share one person familiar with the business.
by stuffing in as many one-off items as it pressure to deliver on his strategy to provide insurance against a slide in close to its high.” prices in Europe after last winter was Auditor appointments are subject to
can in what was already shaping up to be diversify the bank’s business. prices, relative to “calls”, which pay Other investors point out that a due to this rebound in services. People shareholder approval.
a challenging quarter. Despite Solomon’s efforts to expand out if the market rises. recent slowdown in activity across thought and still think that the econ- EY has continued to win banking
“Goldman Sachs cannot afford to be a into newer areas, Goldman is still heav- In so doing, they betrayed an Europe’s hitherto resilient services omy remains resilient,” said Tomasz audits despite its role in signing off the
serial offender, to go back next quarter ily reliant on its legacy businesses of “underlying nervousness” about sector also bodes poorly for local Wieladek, chief European economist accounts of German fintech group Wire-
and tell investors about more charges investment banking and trading, which European stocks despite their recent stock markets. at T Rowe Price. card, which collapsed in a fraud scandal
they need to take. That’s CEO school do not lead to a higher stock market val- run, said analysts at Bank of America. S&P Global’s eurozone services pur- However, “[services PMI] will prob- in 2020. Last year EY won a share of the
101,” said Mike Mayo, a longtime bank- uation from investors due to their The ratio of puts to calls tied to the chasing managers’ index, a measure ably go down significantly as part of €60mn-a-year audit contract for BNP
ing analyst at Wells Fargo. volatility. blue-chip Euro Stoxx 50 benchmark of activity in services, fell for a second the natural monetary policy tighten- Paribas. It also audits Deutsche Bank,
Like its peers, Goldman’s earnings are Goldman’s return on equity, a critical has risen to its highest level in BofA month running in June to 52, indicat- ing cycle and that’s something that Germany’s biggest lender, but it has
suffering from a sharp drop in invest- measure of profitability, is forecast to be data stretching back a decade. ing continued expansion albeit at the markets are not prepared for,” he said, been barred from bidding for new
ment banking fees and a slowdown in about 5 per cent for the quarter, below The index — which includes luxury slowest pace since January. adding that the euro area services PMI audits of German-listed companies for
stock and bond trading. the 10 per cent hurdle seen as earning goods group LVMH, chip equipment The decline in service sector had been “highly correlated” with two years after its failures at Wirecard.
But the bank’s profits will also take a back the cost of capital, and well below maker ASML and industrial conglom- momentum may soon begin to weigh European share price moves over the UBS, Credit Suisse and PwC declined
hit from probable writedowns on a the bank’s own target of 14-16 per cent. erate Siemens — has risen 14 per cent on European equities, which have past three years. to comment.
Financial services
Retail Technology
South Korean
Křetínský set to win battle for Casino ‘ant’ traders
Billionaire poised to take creditors. In it, he and Marc Ladreit de
Lacharrière’s Fimalac would put in a
retailer with 53,000 employees in the
country, has been controlled for dec-
from bankruptcy. The process, which
started in May, is being overseen by a
“Our desire is to make the greatest
effort possible to preserve the maxi-
swarm all over
control of food retailer
after rivals quit race
€1.2bn equity injection to take a 53 per
cent stake in the company. On top of
ades by Jean-Charles Naouri, who built
it up but has saddled it with €6.4bn in
court-appointed agent and closely
watched by the French finance ministry.
mum possible, rational perimeter of
Casino,” the Czech billionaire said, in an
battery stocks
that, €4.9bn of Casino’s debt would be Casino shares have fallen more than effort to quell fears that the retail chain
converted into equity. 75 per cent in the past year. could be sold off in parts.
ADRIENNE KLASA AND LEILA ABBOUD
PARIS The trio dubbed 3F, including Niel,
‘Our desire is to preserve In an interview prior to the trio Křetínský said no agreements to sell SONG JUNG-A AND CHRISTIAN DAVIES
investment banker Matthieu Pigasse the maximum rational announcing they would pull out, Křetín- stores to rivals were in place and that he SEOUL
Czech billionaire Daniel Křetínský is and retail entrepreneur Moez- ský argued his offer was the best one for would work to preserve and eventually
poised to win the battle for control of Alexandre Zouari, had been working on
perimeter of Casino’ the company and its creditors. He called create jobs as part of a turnaround
An army of South Korean retail traders
has sparked a nine-fold rise in the
Casino after a trio of investors led by bil- a new offer but decided to abandon it Daniel Křetínský on creditors to be “realistic” and that “a focused on Casino’s extensive network shares of a battery materials producer
lionaire Xavier Niel dropped out of the late yesterday blaming Casino for run- business plan that is based on hopes or of small urban stores. However, “if the as it takes on hedge funds betting
running to bail out the heavily indebted ning “a biased process” and singling out debt that rating agencies doubt it can imagined hopes will not succeed”. reaction of customers, for example to against the company’s stock.
French food retailer. investment fund Attestor for switching repay. Křetínský also proposed that Casino the hypermarket format, is really very
Křetínský said in an interview with sides to rally to Křetínský’s bid. The company, which has been burn- boss Jean-Charles Naouri stay on in a negative, with a continuing negative The individual investors — known
the Financial Times that he had submit- “Today after months of work, 3F has ing through cash while losing market “respectable” role once he takes control trend, you have to respect reality”. locally as “ants” — have bought a net
ted a revised offer on Saturday to Casino decided not to submit an offer,” they share to rivals, has been in a voluntary of the indebted French grocer, which he Křetínský said if he took control he Won3.1tn ($2.5bn) of shares in EcoPro
as part of the company’s voluntary said in a statement. debt restructuring negotiation with vowed to keep together to the “maxi- would want to take advantage of and its subsidiary, cathode producer
debt restructuring negotiation with Casino, France’s sixth-biggest food creditors aimed at saving the company mum possible” extent. Naouri’s “very deep knowledge”. EcoPro BM, in an episode with echoes of
the US “meme stock” craze, where small
traders used platforms such as Reddit to
whip up enthusiasm for previously
Market questions. Week ahead unloved stocks.
EcoPro’s rally of 833 per cent this year
has come as bigger investors ramp up
Speed of UK inflation slowdown holds key to rate rises their short positions, or bets that the
stock will fall. Short positions in EcoPro
shares have surged from Won54bn at
the beginning of the year to Won1.3tn,
according to data from Korea Exchange.
EcoPro BM shares have gained about
How fast is UK inflation falling? 200 per cent in the year to date.
Investors are expecting UK inflation to But South Korean retail investors,
have slowed when figures for June are who call themselves ants because of
published on Wednesday — the question their capacity to act as a powerful collec-
is, how quickly? tive, keep buying shares.
Expectations for UK policy rates Spurred on by popular YouTubers
ramped up sharply last month following including Park Soon-hyuk, a former
unexpectedly strong wage numbers and chemical company executive known as
stubbornly high consumer price infla- “Mr Battery”, the retail investors have
tion data, as markets priced in substan- shrugged off warnings that the stock is
tially higher interest rates to bring down overvalued.
inflation to the Bank of England target EcoPro and EcoPro BM “are typical
of 2 per cent. meme stocks”, said Chan Lee, managing
The June numbers will also be
watched by the government, as Prime
Minister Rishi Sunak has made it one of
‘Retail investors are crazy
his five goals to halve inflation over the about the shares so short
course of this year. Economists polled
by Reuters forecast that rises in prices
sellers find it difficult to
slowed to 8.2 per cent in June, down withstand their losses’
from 8.7 per cent in the previous month.
That would still be above the BoE’s fore- partner at Petra Capital Management, a
cast of a decline to 7.9 per cent. Seoul-based hedge fund. “They have
Sandra Horsfield, economist at become too expensive even if you factor
Investec, expects a sharper decline to in their future growth potential.”
8.1 per cent, driven by lower petrol and, EcoPro’s operating profit jumped sev-
to a lesser extent, food price inflation. enfold from Won86bn in 2021 to
However, she forecasts that core infla- Won613bn last year. But its price-to-
tion, which strips out the more volatile earnings ratio is nearly 700 times, com-
food and energy prices, will be pared with 267 for fellow Korean bat-
unchanged at 7.1 per cent. tery material producer Posco Future M,
“As concerns primarily centre on the 166 for battery maker LG Energy Solu-
sticky nature of core inflation, merely tion, and 31 for cathode producer L&F.
seeing lower headline inflation would Retail investors are betting that South
not deter additional tightening,” said Korean battery makers and material
Horsfield. She expects that the BoE will producers will benefit from a booming
increase rates by another half percent- City of London: the start of July to trade at $1.1171, its the bloc shrinking by 0.1 per cent in ‘It could be retail sales for June are expected to have market in electric vehicles, and US pres-
age point to 5.5 per cent in August fol- economists highest level since March 2022, lifted by each of the past two quarters, and Ger- risen 0.3 per cent. ident Joe Biden’s landmark programme
lowing the same increase in May. polled by US inflation slowing faster than ex- man house prices falling at a record rate that once Bank of America analysts believe that of subsidies for clean energy.
“Indeed, we doubt the MPC [Monetary Reuters predict pected to 3 per cent for the year to June. this year and manufacturing struggling we get to last month’s figures will be lower than The legislation restricts the use of Chi-
Policy Committee] will be confident UK inflation The outlook for inflation in the euro- with weaker demand from China. the estimate, however, in part because nese components in green technologies
enough to pause raising rates in Septem- slowed to 8.2% zone is more difficult, with consumer “It could be that once we get to Sep- September the bank — which has a large retail pres- if they are to qualify for generous US tax
ber either,” she added. last month, prices in Germany rising 6.8 per cent for tember the market may realise that the the market ence in the US — has seen a decline in its credits, potentially eliminating compe-
Markets are betting that the BoE will above the Bank the year to June, higher than economists eurozone has growth issues of its own, own credit and debit card spending. tition for Korean companies.
lift interest rates to 6 per cent by the end of England’s had forecast. Traders have still fully interest rates have peaked and suddenly may realise The analysts cite a 0.2 per cent decline But analysts at Goldman Sachs
of the year. To reverse some of the forecast of 7.9% priced in two more 0.25 percentage the euro doesn’t look very attractive any that the in card spending in June, consistent with warned last month that the global cath-
Kin Cheung/AP
recent surge in rates expectations, that point rate rises for the ECB, but have more,” Foley said. the recent slowdown in the labour mar- ode market may be oversupplied over
pushed up mortgage rates, “data will removed bets the Fed will move beyond Mary McDougall eurozone ket. Bank of America therefore expects the next decade, advising investors to
have to show clear signs that disinflation a widely anticipated rate rise in July. has growth the Census Bureau data to show a sell shares in EcoPro BM and Posco
is accelerating”, said Horsfield. “The euro had no difficulty at all tak- What will retail sales tell us about 0.2 per cent decline in retail sales ex- Future M.
Valentina Romei ing out its spring high against the dollar the health of the US consumer? issues of its automotive for June, and a 0.1 per cent “It is hard either to buy them or to
this week,” said Jane Foley, head of FX Retail sales data for June to be released own’ drop in the core control group. short the shares, as short covering is also
Will the euro keep rising against strategy at Rabobank. tomorrow will offer insight into the The US reported last week that hiring boosting their prices,” said An Hyung-
the dollar? “But what’s interesting now is that health of the US consumer as the labour Jane Foley, had slowed in June after months of jin, chief executive at the Seoul-based
The euro hit a 16-month high against the you’ve seen Isabel Schnabel, member of market begins to slow. Rabobank unexpected strength. That slowdown, hedge fund Billionfold Asset Manage-
dollar this week as traders ramped up the ECB governing council, talking Economists polled by Reuters fore- which is nevertheless still modest, could ment. “Retail investors are crazy about
their bets that the Federal Reserve will about weakening economic data, in con- cast that the Census Bureau will report a put pressure on spending, and comes the shares so short sellers find it increas-
stop raising interest rates ahead of the trast to sentiments from [ECB president 0.4 per cent increase in overall retail amid expectations of a recession, tight ingly difficult to withstand their bal-
European Central Bank. Christine] Lagarde last week,” she said. sales in June from the prior month, fol- financial conditions and slowing infla- looning losses,” An added.
The euro has risen by more than The eurozone has already entered a lowing an increase of 0.3 per cent in tion, all of which weigh on spending. “Amateur traders are winning the bat-
2.3 per cent against the greenback since technical recession, with output across May. Excluding the automotive sector, Kate Duguid tle against the short sellers.”
UK COMPANIES
rates leaves buyers having to Companies on the UK’s FTSE 100 index
have cut their charitable donations by
pay thousands more a month 17 per cent in real terms over the past
six years despite a near trebling of pre-
JANE CROFT AND JAMES PICKFORD tax profits over the same period.
Wealthy borrowers in the UK with large The UK’s largest 100 listed companies
interest-only mortgages face a punish- donated £1.85bn in 2022, a similar
ing jump in payments — leaving them amount to 2016 and a quarter lower
potentially paying thousands of pounds than the £2.51bn of charitable giving
a month more — as they come off fixed- reported in 2012, according to research
rate deals in a rising interest rate envi- due to be published today by Charities
ronment. Aid Foundation.
The focus of what MPs have dubbed The figures come as many charities
the country’s “mortgage time bomb” face a rise in requests for help from peo-
has understandably been trained on ple struggling to make ends meet during
households already hit hard by the cost the cost of living crisis.
of living crisis, particularly on younger Companies on the UK’s blue-chip
families that tend to have bigger out- index donated 0.8 per cent of pre-tax
standing loans. profits last year, down from 2.4 per cent
But repayments on interest-only in 2016, the last time the analysis was
mortgages, which tend to be favoured run. “As many households are squeezed
by relatively affluent borrowers, are and many charities struggle to survive
also forecast to increase by thousands of in the current climate, it is essential that
pounds each month as the sensitivity of those who have the capital and
the products to rate movements leads to resources step up and lead,” said Neil
much bigger swings in monthly costs Heslop, chief executive of Charities Aid
than a capital repayment deal. Foundation, a charity that advises busi-
The Bank of England decided to raise nesses and individuals on how they can
interest rates by half a percentage point support other charities.
last month to 5 per cent, its 13th consec- “Had the FTSE 100 continued to
utive rise. It is predicted to raise rates to donate the same proportion of cumula-
6 per cent next year in an attempt to tive pre-tax profits as they did in 2016,
bring down stubbornly high inflation. we would have seen a total of £5.59bn of
“When mortgage rates were cheap, Bigger hit: building his own house and had all the Banks say that since 2008, interest- ‘Some sheets,” said Michelle White, co-head of charitable donations from these busi-
we’d have clients saying ‘Lend me as wealthier planning permissions and was ready to only mortgages tend to be limited to the private office at Investec Wealth. nesses [in 2022],” he said.
much as you can for as long as possible’,” borrowers are go but had to pull out of this when rates more prosperous clients. The interest- people “Some people prefer to reduce their While many companies increased
said Carlos Mendes, a banker at using annual went to nearly 6 per cent,” said Dean only jumbo mortgages over £1mn are prefer to monthly payments and so go for
Investec, a private bank whose 7,000 cli- bonuses or Esnard, director of Magni Finance, a usually offered by private banks that interest-only rates and instead invest
ents have an average income of property sales to mortgage broker specialising in home cater for the affluent, such as Coutts, go for their money in property or the stock
‘It is essential that
£700,000 and a personal net asset value pay off part of loans above £500,000. which is owned by NatWest. interest- market,” added Aaron Strutt, product those who have the
of £11mn. their loans and UK banks do not publicly break down Interest-only deals also apply stricter and communications director at mort-
Interest-only mortgages are popular soften any how many of their customers are on criteria on eligibility than repayment only rates gage broker Trinity Financial Group.
capital and resources
with wealthy borrowers such as bankers upcoming interest-only mortgages. There were mortgages. and instead Esnard said interest-only mortgages step up and lead’
and private equity executives, who payment shock 702,000 outstanding pure interest-only Lenders may demand a minimum could help well off professionals who
receive part of their pay in annual Simon Dawson/Bloomberg mortgages at the end of 2022, according income level, limit term length to 25 invest their may receive annual bonuses but needed their contributions in 2020 and 2021 to
bonuses or shares. to UK Finance. In the first quarter of years and insist that the mortgage ends money in lower monthly payments. offset the economic impact of the coro-
This is because the products keep 2023, 8 per cent of newly advanced resi- before retirement and that borrowers In the past 18 months more banks and navirus pandemic, the report found that
monthly payments low and allow bor- dential mortgages were interest-only, must have a plan for repayment of the property or building societies, backed by regulators corporate giving mostly fell to pre-
rowers to stretch themselves more, as compared with 87 per cent on interest capital sum. the stock and the government in its “mortgage pandemic levels in 2022.
the payments reduce the interest and and capital repayment terms, according If borrowers plan to pay it off by sell- charter”, have suggested mainstream The impact of inflation meant that the
not the capital sum. to BoE data. ing the home, lenders typically set lower market’ borrowers struggling to pay soaring value of the companies’ charitable
But BoE data shows that by the end of The proportion of interest-only mort- limits on the loan size as a share of the mortgage bills should consider a tempo- donations was 17 per cent lower in real
2026, around 215,000 mortgage bor- gages has declined since the financial property’s value. rary switch of six months to interest- terms than in 2016. But the businesses
rowers will see their payments rocket by crisis because of tighter lending regula- “All of these things naturally skew only mortgages — or an extension of the were more generous than members of
£1,000 or more a month — 56,000 of tions, which introduced stringent interest-only towards higher net worth term of their loan — for short-term the public had assumed. A YouGov poll
these are interest-only mortgages and affordability tests. In the first quarter of borrowers,” said David Hollingworth, financial relief. found the public believed only 37 per
60,000 are a mix of capital repayment 2008, pure interest-only accounted for director at L&C Mortgages, a broker. Brokers said this might lead to a short- cent of the FTSE 100 donated to charity.
and interest-only, according to the cen- just under 44 per cent of new residential In the recent era of low interest rates, term rise in interest-only borrowers but In fact, 94 of the companies on the index
tral bank. mortgages — now it is 11.5 per cent of all it has often made sense for prosperous cautioned that a permanent rise was publicly declare charitable giving.
For instance, in July 2020 a two-year mortgages. borrowers to borrow cheaply and then unlikely because of tighter eligibility Healthcare companies gave more to
interest-only mortgage of 1.69 per cent Adding in so-called part-part mort- deploy their wealth elsewhere to get criteria applied to interest-only loans, charity than any other relative to their
was available from HSBC, meaning a gages, which combine a portion of inter- returns from shares or bond portfolios which would kick in after the initial six earnings, contributing 2.95 per cent of
borrower with a £300,000 mortgage est-only with a repayment loan, brings that outstrip the cost of borrowing. months. pre-tax profits. GSK’s contributions
and a 25 per cent deposit would have the share of mortgages with an interest- “It’s about being clever and sophisti- Switching to interest only does cut amounted to 5.47 per cent of pre-tax
paid £5,070 a year. only element to just under 16 per cent. cated with their personal balance monthly payments substantially. On a profits, a higher proportion than any
In July 2023, HSBC offered a similar £200,000 mortgage at an interest rate other company.
deal for remortgaging at 5.79 per cent. Value of new mortgages at lowest level Share of interest-only mortgages has of 5.5 per cent over 25 years, the The basic materials and consumer
Ignoring one-off fees, that equates to monthly bill under an interest and capi- staples sectors, which include mining
£17,370 a year for the same borrower.
since first quarter of 2020 dropped since financial crisis tal repayment mortgage would be companies such as Rio Tinto, Glencore
Monthly costs would jump from £423 to Gross advances (£bn) % share of total £1,228. On an interest-only deal, that and Anglo American and high street
£1,448, more than three times as much. Other would fall to £917 a month, according to names such as Tesco, J Sainsbury and
100 Combined 100
Mendes said that clients were now Rolling 4-quarter average broker L&C Mortgages. Unilever, were also among the most
using annual bonuses or property sales 80 Interest only 80 However, on a repayment mortgage generous, contributing an average of
to pay off part of their loans and soften over 25 years, the borrower would pay 1.76 per cent of pre-tax profits. All other
any upcoming payment shock. 60 60 £169,000 in interest, compared with sectors gave less than 1 per cent of prof-
One senior banker with a £1.14mn £275,000 on an interest-only arrange- its, on average.
interest-only mortgage said he expected 40 40 ment. The report was based on data dis-
his payments to go up from £1,200 a Repayment* Bankers dealing with high net worth closed in companies’ annual reports and
month to £7,000 later this year and so 20
customers say many are well prepared ESG reports about their charitable giv-
20
planned to pay down part of the capital for the upcoming payment shock. “We ing, which includes cash and in-kind
instead. are not seeing a scenario with lots of cli- donations, matched funding of
0 0
In the wake of rising rates, clients ents contacting us in distress,” said employee donations, employee volun-
2007 10 15 20 23 2010 15 20
have already begun to change their Mendes. teering, and costs incurred from sup-
Source: Bank of England * Capital + interest
behaviour. “I had one client who was Esnard added: “It’s no time to panic.” porting community initiatives.
12 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES Monday 17 July 2023
Just say no
if working
while female
{ UK labour shortage:
making crime pay }
Campaigns to get more UK companies show more
willingness to hire people
are bearing fruit with convictions
Employment of people on probation Employers indicating they would hire
following release from custody, someone who had committed these
offences (%)
Driving
Alcohol-
after release related
Criminal
damage
Common
assault
after release
Drug-related
Benefit fraud
‘White collar’ Would recruit:
crime a man
Burglary, a woman
Pilita Clark
Apr Jul Oct Jan robbery, theft
Business Life
Source: UK Ministry of Justice and hiring responsibilities by NfpResearch for the UK
HM Prison and Probation Service charity Working Chance
S
In an attempt to plug the UK’s chronic, Redemption Roasters in London, which
Kenneth Andersson
1mn-plus labour shortage, employers owns a chain of 10 coffee shops, were
aying no to people is one of important to understand the persistent I will never forget hearing a senior mentoring, training, organising are tapping 16 to 18-year-olds, born out of efforts by the Ministry of
the most important skills you inability to say no. executive from a large company schedules, taking notes or serving on over-50s and recent retirees. Justice to encourage entrepreneurs to
can develop. You can only The remorseless slew of books on the explain that an internal search for committees to pick a new travel firm. The government has another idea. It train inmates.
achieve great things if you topic is not helping. Many make a people to promote had immediately They repeatedly found research has embarked on a drive to persuade But there are difficulties for both
know how to say no. People reasonable fist of outlining the ruled out anyone who compulsively evidence that women were asked to do more companies to hire former ex-prisoners and employers. Former
pleasing is driven by fear, not virtue. consequences of being too ready to say worked through their evenings, this work more than men, and were offenders. More than 12mn people in prisoners are praised for displaying
All this advice comes from three of yes — exhaustion, resentment, burnout weekends or vacations. These people more likely to agree to do it. the UK have a criminal record, high work rates and levels of loyalty.
the many books on how to say no that and so on. obviously did not know how to In other words, there is a collective according to the charity Unlock. But they can also be among the most
have gushed forth from a publishing But they struggle to identify the prioritise or work effectively, the expectation that women will do more Supporting ex-offenders in vulnerable people in society. Employers
industry apparently incapable of cause of the dilemma: poorly managed executive told me, so why would you of the work that never makes it into an employment cuts reoffending rates. with experience of working with
saying anything but yes to this idea for organisations that do not know who is promote them? organisation’s press releases or weekly Previous attempts to integrate more ex-convicts estimate that only about a
decades. doing what and do not formally I have seen men fall into this trap. updates. former prisoners into the workplace are third of prisoners would be in a position
Don’t Say Yes When You Want to Say No recognise work that is vital but mostly But I also remember the shocked look The story was the same whether bearing fruit. The share of ex-offenders to take up employment successfully on
came out in 1975. In the past 15 months invisible. of a male colleague with the same job women worked in supermarkets, in work six months after their release release. Others need support with
alone it has been joined by The Power of In other words, they blame as mine who one day saw my online airport security lines or law firms. At increased to more than 30 per cent at issues such as addiction and mental
Saying No, 100 Ways to Say No, The Joy of individuals for a problem that is largely calendar on my computer. “What’s all one big professional services firm, the the end of March from just over 14 per health before they can work.
Saying No, How to Say No, and No Will caused by organisational systems. that?” he laughed, staring at all the authors found the average woman was cent in April 2021. Organisations Charities say overcrowding and
Set You Free. Some books offer useful guidance on appointments, meetings and task spending about 200 hours a year — working in the field are encouraged, understaffing in the prison service
You would think we might have how to be more assertive, or wily, reminders crowding each week. His nearly one whole month — more than even though statistics during the mean people close to release have
conquered the problem by now. The about saying no. They rightly say too own calendar turned out to be virtually the average man on non-promotable pandemic were artificially low. often not received support and training
fact that we have not came to mind last many of us worry unduly about letting empty in comparison. work. A survey from the charity Working needed to prepare for work.
week, as I contemplated the onset of others down, while too few appreciate He was not alone. The thankless, Their findings have had an impact. Chance last year found that 45 per cent Companies that successfully recruit
one of the gravest moments for the the damage of being known as a invisible work that eats into time and Some organisations have come up with of employers would theoretically take from prison populations often have
people pleaser: summer. workaholic doormat. career priorities is overwhelmingly ways to make staff aware of the NPT on someone with a conviction. In 2010 separate programmes tailored to the
Working through July and August done by women. gender divide and allocate such work this figure was 25 per cent. needs of former offenders. These
poses the constant risk of being asked “ The thankless, invisible If you don’t believe me, I suggest you fairly. Shoe repair and key-cutting chain frequently start with training
to fill in for absent colleagues and do work that eats into time read an excellent book on saying no A lot more must follow them. It’s not Timpson has a long history of academies within prison walls. But such
work that equally absent bosses fail to that came out last year called The No just fairer. It’s better for a business to employing former prisoners. They schemes are resource-intensive.
notice. and career priorities Club. It was written by four female use all its workers’ time well, rather account for more than 10 per cent of its Companies will need to balance the
This year, as the humdrum trials of is overwhelmingly done academics who realised that they and than lumbering one group with so workforce — some 650 people. A cost of such partnerships against
working life are compounded by cost of others like them were drowning in much stressful drudgery that they end number of small businesses such as potential losses from understaffing.
living miseries, it seems even more by women ” NPTs, or “non-promotable tasks”: up saying yes to a better job.
CROSSWORD
No 17,470 Set by SLORMGORM
ACROSS
1 Airlines obtain whistle in case of ditches
(9)
6 Cheap wine set (5)
9 Tory right to cut most of cost for
authority (7)
10 Flash director singers knocked back in
Fame (7)
11 Fat old worker eating slice of salami (5)
12 Noisy couple love, primarily, to get
passionate (9)
14 Vessel in service after refurbs essentially
(3)
15 Most unmanageable weed I insult angrily
(11)
17 Thorny climber replanted using a pot (11)
19 Infusion of blood type given by
companion (3)
20 One enjoying a benefit of their golden
years? (9)
22 Noisily eat meal left out for Frenchman
(5)
24 Outfit in German tank powerless to take
town at front (7)
26 Two heads will have a vegetarian dish (7)
27 Friend that’s put on Republican
convention (5)
28 At this moment in time, criminal enters
into fold (9)
DOWN
1 Eccentric with a cold fine after a turn (5)
2 Buff eager to give support to old relative
(7)
3 A favourite city you recalled as eternal (9)
JOTTER PAD 4 She is one with The Force (11)
5 Relative fractions I solved ... partly (3)
6 Good doctor screening a music producer
Solution 17,468 (5)
7 A shade past it to get on the wine! (3,4)
$ $ , ( ) & & + 8 Manual promoting diversity in union?
0 $ ' $ 6 $ 0 $ 5 & + + $ 5 ( (4,5)
$ 9 / 0 , ( 6 / 13 A man looking like Trump’s a stripper
7 + ( 7 $ $ / * 2 5 , 7 + 0 (5,6)
( 1 1 + 8 $
14 Pollarded brown tree outside uni not
loved by all (9)
8 1 7 , ' , ( 6 7 % 2 1 & (
16 Last month I joined up with soldiers in
5 ( 9 ( ( 8 unit (9)
, 0 0 ( 5 6 , 2 1 + ( $ 7 ( 5 18 Private shot by a loony leader in error
6 $ 7 ( $ < (3,4)
+ 2 9 ( 5 $ / ' ( 5 6 + 2 7 19 Prisoner meeting with kind partner (7)
( ( 3 ' 2 + 21 One lake feeding river in the country (5)
) $ 5 0 6 7 ( $ ' 5 ( $ / 0 23 Sizable broadsheet taken over by Hello!
(5)
, , , 5 , 8 5 , You can now solve our crosswords 25 Sink installed in Burundi, perhaps (3)
% $ & . * 5 2 8 1 ' 0 8 6 , & in the new FT crossword app at
6 . 1 1 . 6 ( 6 ft.com/crosswordapp
Monday 17 July 2023 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES 13
MARKET DATA
S&P 500 New York S&P/TSX COMP Toronto FTSE 100 London Xetra Dax Frankfurt Nikkei 225 Tokyo Kospi Seoul
4,519.02
20,307.70 7,628.26 16,290.12 16,128.02 33,485.49 2,628.30
20,015.09 2,608.54
4,372.59 7,434.57 32,391.26
Day 0.20% Month 3.34% Year 19.21% Day 0.00% Month 1.31% Year 10.63% Day -0.08% Month -2.13% Year 5.69% Day -0.22% Month 3.71% Year NaN% Day -0.09% Month -1.77% Year 22.49% Day 1.43% Month -0.37% Year 12.87%
Nasdaq Composite New York IPC Mexico City FTSE Eurofirst 300 Europe Ibex 35 Madrid Hang Seng Hong Kong FTSE Straits Times Singapore
14,194.28 19,828.92
55,344.25 1,838.15 1,824.51 19,413.78 3,248.63
9,430.80 9,438.30 3,218.14
13,573.32 54,119.71
Day 0.39% Month 4.15% Year 26.14% Day -0.67% Month -2.26% Year 15.31% Day -0.06% Month -0.81% Year 13.93% Day -0.43% Month 1.12% Year 18.80% Day 0.33% Month -0.64% Year -6.73% Day 0.31% Month 1.87% Year 3.84%
Dow Jones Industrial New York Bovespa São Paulo CAC 40 Paris FTSE MIB Milan Shanghai Composite Shanghai BSE Sensex Mumbai
7,374.54 28,663.30 66,060.90
34,520.43 119,221.00 7,290.91 3,237.70
118,520.92 27,731.78 3,233.67
34,212.12 63,143.16
Day 0.36% Month 1.60% Year 12.71% Day -1.06% Month -0.91% Year 22.74% Day 0.06% Month 1.15% Year 22.90% Day -0.39% Month 3.98% Year 34.66% Day 0.04% Month 0.12% Year -1.42% Day 0.77% Month 4.74% Year 23.59%
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For more information on dividend payments visit www.ft.com/marketsdata For a full explanation of all the other symbols please refer to London Share Service notes.
14 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES Monday 17 July 2023
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FT 500: TOP 20 FT 500: BOTTOM 20 BONDS: HIGH YIELD & EMERGING MARKET BONDS: GLOBAL INVESTMENT GRADE
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16 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES Monday 17 July 2023
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18 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES Monday 17 July 2023
Listen and
‘
Of all the management techniques, Some writers have been telling If they co-ordinate supplies, they After that, you can announce your
few are as powerful as curious business leaders this for years. Stephen know the suppliers. If they deal with decision: for all the listening, to lead is
’
magic. They’re at the top because they have employees may not be pleased, but at behind them speaking up would make them stand
Why does it work? Because people the answers. least they have been heard. out and leave them vulnerable to
feel listened to. They feel they matter. Those who educate leaders often The same applies to chairing a victimisation.
You can achieve this, too, by repeating don’t think listening is important meeting. You are far more likely to If, as a leader, you are known for
whatever they have just told you. either. A 2015 study of US reach a productive outcome if you eliciting opinions and engaging with
Psychologists call it “reflecting back”. undergraduate business programmes spend the first part just listening, them, people are more likely to bring
A 2009 study assessing randomised found that 76 per cent included oral encouraging others to talk. As people looming trouble to your attention.
control trials of therapy sessions in presentation and 22 per cent some share their thoughts, you can begin to Having those “so what you are saying”
the US and Norway found that of aspect of conversation. Just 11 per cent see the ways different groups are or “tell me a bit more” conversations
all the techniques counsellors focused on listening. thinking. You can use the same not only makes for a more engaged
attempted — including confrontation, You can learn the techniques of listening techniques with each group: workforce. It could save your
questioning and offering support — listening — reflecting back, asking reflecting back, asking for more organisation — and your leadership
“the therapist listening carefully and questions — but there is more to it information. As the meeting moves reputation.
reflecting back what the patient said” than that. You need to believe your on, you can summarise different points
Michael Skapinker was the most effective. The “listening teams have interesting insights. of view. You need to do this in good The writer is an FT contributing editor
carefully” part is vital. People know Luckily, they are bound to have them. faith, showing that you have and author of ‘Inside the Leaders’ Club:
Management when you are only going through
the motions.
They do their jobs every day, and
know them better than anyone else.
understood not just people’s words but
the feelings behind them.
How Top Companies Manage Pressing
Business Issues’
Women in business
C
CEO roles and similar executive posi-
tions held by women has increased,
hanel boss Leena Nair and according to the BoardEx data. In the
former Xerox head Anne S&P 500, women make up 22 per cent of
Mulcahy have something in these roles, up from 14 per cent in 2018.
common: they were In the UK, it is 18 per cent, up from 10.
appointed chief executive This matters particularly in the US,
after extensive experience in human as these roles are increasingly a
resources. stepping stone to the CEO position.
But their promotions were not typi- Over the 20 years before their appoint-
cal. Figures from global data company ment to the top job, 45 per cent of US
BoardEx show a far more common CEOs had experience as divisional
route to the top job is through finance chiefs, up from 39 per cent in 2018,
and operational roles — and these are while the proportion of CEOs with
still overwhelmingly held by men. experience as regional chiefs increased
For the number of female CEOs in the from 5 per cent to 8 per cent.
US and UK to increase, BoardEx says Katie Bickerstaffe, who was
there must be a significant shift in appointed co-CEO of British retailer
recruitment practices. Either compa- Marks and Spencer last year, has experi-
nies broaden their search beyond tradi- ence in HR and marketing, but was also
tionally male-dominated jobs or step a regional CEO of Dixons Carphone
up efforts to appoint women to these (now Currys).
positions. Imberg noted that more women were
Using exclusive data on senior roles being appointed to C-suite roles in
within the S&P 500 and FTSE 350, the finance, operations and sales, although
Financial Times has analysed the pipe- these remained heavily male-domi-
line of potential future female CEOs and nated. “In the long run this will help
assessed the path to greater equality at boost the pipeline for future female CEO
the head of business. Ruth Porat, left, FTSE 350 now, up from 4 per cent for BoardEx, said not enough women were Roisin Currie, chief executive of The candidates.”
Margherita both indices in 2018. gaining the relevant experience as UK bakery chain Gregg’s, spent 30 years Some companies are also making
Route to the top Della Valle and Drop one tier down and women are their careers developed to later become in HR but gained additional experience inclusion of efforts to give women exposure to other
UK telecoms group Vodafone this year
elevated its finance chief, Margherita
Amy Hood
FT montage/Reuters/Getty
still by far the minority, although the
numbers are higher. They hold 21 per
CEO of a large listed company. With
women a minority in top level commer-
as the company’s retail and property
director.
female- parts of the business. Danny Harmer,
Aviva’s chief people officer, said the
Della Valle, to become its first female Images
cent of senior finance roles in the top US cial, operations and finance roles, she However, there are signs of a shift in dominated insurer had created a commercial lead-
CEO. It is a common career path — in the companies, up from about 18 per cent said “there is a limited pipeline of possi- how companies perceive HR roles, ership programme to develop a diverse
FTSE 350 as a whole, 13 per cent of cur- five years ago, according to BoardEx. ble female candidates for an eventual which could help more women progress roles, such pipeline. “The programme covers eve-
rent CEOs were promoted from a CFO
position, according to data provided by
Amy Hood at Microsoft, Ruth Porat at
Alphabet and Colette Kress at Nvidia
CEO position”.
She added that to build that pipeline
up the ranks. HR positions are now
more likely to be considered part of
as HR, in rything from commercial insights and
case studies to understanding the inves-
BoardEx. are among the female CFOs in the at UK and US-listed companies, “female the C-suite than five years ago. Accord- senior tor perspective and AI. It even includes
But still only 23 per cent of UK CFO US. British water group Severn Trent, leaders need to gain more experience in ing to the BoardEx data, 59 per cent of a mini MBA.”
positions are currently held by women, one of the few FTSE 100 businesses either commercial and executive func- FTSE 350 companies have an
leadership The increase in female non-executive
indicating the challenge for companies with a female CEO, recently appointed tions, finance, operations or sales. HR officer in their senior leadership teams directors is also preparing women to
to achieve better gender diversity. Helen Miles as CFO. The same role at team, up from 42 per cent in 2018, while become CEO, acting as “an accelerator,”
Similarly, of the S&P 500 bosses that Barclays has been held by Anna Cross Future route through HR? in the S&P 500 77 per cent of companies could help according to Laura Sanderson, UK
were not already a CEO in their previous
role, 13 per cent were promoted from
since last year.
The “C-suite” roles where women
Female CEOs who initially worked in
HR often gained experience elsewhere
do, up from 61 per cent.
The inclusion of female-dominated
broaden country head at headhunter Russell
Reynolds Associates. She cited Liv
the position of chief operations officer make up the majority are HR, market- in their companies before landing the roles, such as HR, in senior leadership the pool of Garfield, chief executive of Severn
and 6 per cent from CFO, both heavily ing and PR. They account for about half top job. Mulcahy at Xerox, for example, teams could help broaden the pool of Trent, and Alison Rose of NatWest as
male-dominated roles in the US. the senior sustainability positions and began her career in HR, but moved into potential chief executives. potential examples.
The BoardEx data analysed the
careers of current CEOs over a 20-year
40 per cent of senior legal roles. But the
BoardEx data suggests these functions
senior operational positions before
becoming CEO. Mary Barra, CEO and
“HR is not the country cousin it
used to be,” said Denise Wilson, chief
chief What needs to change now?
period. This showed a clear trend of have not historically been a stepping chair of General Motors, led other sec- executive of the FTSE Women Leaders executives Wilson said a big part of the problem
CEOs coming up through the ranks of stone to the top job. tions of the carmaker following her time Review. “Post-Covid has brought about was “a bias in the selection process
traditionally male-dominated finance Maya Imberg, senior director at as vice-president of global HR. monumental changes about what is [and] about our perception of what a
and operational roles. About 45 per cent leader looks like. It feeds into our
of those holding S&P 500 and FTSE 350 Jobs running divisions, operations and finance are Women make up the majority of executive choice.”
CEO jobs in the first quarter of 2023 had “It’s not that [women] don’t have the
previously run a division. A fifth of S&P
common paths to chief executive appointees in HR, sustainability, marketing and PR right experience,” she added.
500 and a quarter of FTSE CEOs had % of current CEOs with experience in the following areas in the % of executives appointed in 2022-23, by area and gender Sanderson agreed: “There are still
held a role in finance. 20 years before their appointment Women Men some basic hangups about how a CEO
Only 1.4 per cent of current CEOs in US (S&P 500) UK (FTSE 350) US (S&P 500) UK (FTSE 350) looks, sounds and behaves.”
the S&P 500, and 1.6 per cent in the 0 20 40 60 80 0 20 40 60 80 0 50 100 0 50 100 Leagh Turner, co-CEO at Ceridian, a
FTSE 350 had HR experience over the Chief executive/president HR US-listed HR software provider, said
20 years prior to their appointment. Other executive positions leaders, especially in male-dominated
Division chief Sustainability
About 9 per cent of US bosses and 5 per Operations Marketing and PR sectors, should encourage women to
cent of those in the UK had held market- Finance join their teams. “Companies should
Sales, strategy and Legal
ing roles. business development reflect the world their customers are
Others
Regional chief Chief executive and similar operating in. When they do they imme-
Where are the women? Marketing and PR positions diately strengthen the relationship with
Chair/vice-chair Technology, data and digital
There are more female CEOs in the Consultant/adviser their customers.”
US and UK than five years ago, accord- Technology, data and digital Finance Wilson said that even the slow
Others
ing to the BoardEx data — but the Legal Operations progress in appointing women to CEO
numbers still do not even make double HR Sales, strategy and roles was not reason alone to be gloomy.
Sustainability business development
digits. Women account for 8 per cent “Is it woeful? Yes, it is. [But] it’s our stan-
Source: BoardEx, an Altrata company, April 2023
of CEOs in both the S&P 500 and dout poor statistic in good progress.”
Monday 17 July 2023 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES 19
R
yan Roslansky’s LinkedIn
page lists 46 skills, from
product management to
problem solving.
But none fully prepared
him to run the networking site for pro-
fessionals when he took over as chief
executive three years ago.
“I fundamentally believe you can only
learn how to be a CEO by being a CEO,”
he says. “On day one in a role like this,
you’re entering a world where you’re
about to face a large list of unexpected
challenges that you don’t know how to
do. The problem is the entire world
expects you to know how to do it.”
Sitting behind his tidy desk, 16 floors
up LinkedIn’s San Francisco headquar-
ters, with a bookshelf behind him fea-
turing a daughter’s picture of Baby Yoda
and a sign saying “hard things are hard”,
Roslansky points to his dark computer
screen. He will switch it on again after
our hour-long conversation and dis-
cover he has been mentioned 500 times
on LinkedIn, he predicts. With 20,000
employees and more than 930mn users,
something will have gone awry. Custom-
ers, whose complaints range from rou-
tine glitches to fake commenters and
abuse by fraudsters, will be looking to
him to fix it.
“It’s probably not on my LinkedIn
profile, but I think the most important
skill I had to pick up early on was learn- Ryan Roslansky says he prefers ‘small pivots’ in response to challenges so that he avoids ‘whipsawing’ by lurching too far in a new direction, only to have to pull back later — Jason Henry/FT
ing how to manage my psychology,” Ros-
lansky says.
“Product strategy, business strategy, what motivates people and how they out ways for us to get LinkedIn to work
people, operations: those things you can think. “As a product person, it’s proba- inside of China,” Roslansky admits. He
easily figure out, but you have to learn bly the most important skill that one says he is still bullish on the opportunity
how to quickly get your mind in the could have.” the country’s vast working population
right spot”. Roslansky describes himself as an offers, even though he has not yet found
Doing so, the 45-year-old says, “adaptive” leader. “You can practically a sustainable business case.
requires first assembling the right team decide that you are going to adapt as a LinkedIn is keeping its options open
around you — both direct reports and leader, or you can stay who you are,” he by letting Chinese companies hire via its
mentors (among whom he diplomati- explains. But when challenges hit, he global platform, he notes, but “one of
cally highlights Satya Nadella, the prefers to make “small pivots” rather the worst things that you can do . . . is to
than “whipsawing” — lurching too far in keep something going that is just kind
a new direction, only to have to pull of working and thinking that next year
‘You cannot let the highs back later. is going to be the year this is actually
get too high, or the lows It is one reason he has avoided making going to work. We tried that for about
proclamations about when people 10 years.”
get too low . . . maintain should return to its offices. (LinkedIn Roslansky’s definition of adaptive
a band in the middle’ has still not laid down the law on how
often it expects staff to come in, saying it
leadership also means trying to “play
up” rather than down, or looking for the
trusts them to decide whether to choose opportunities a situation presents
Microsoft chief executive who led the in-person, remote or hybrid work.)
software group’s 2016 acquisition of Otherwise, he says, “you’re just thrash-
LinkedIn). Second, “you cannot let the ing these people in these companies
‘The most important skill
highs get too high, or the lows get too around”. I had to pick up early on
low . . . You have to maintain kind of a There is one place where adaptation
steady band in the middle of all of it.” and pivots seem not to have paid off. In was learning how to
And finally, he says, you cannot get so
caught up in the day-to-day minutiae
May, LinkedIn closed its jobs app for
Chinese users and cut more than 700
manage my psychology’
that you lose sight of the bigger corpo- jobs, in the face of fierce competition
rate vision. and regulatory scrutiny. The Financial rather than succumbing to the fear the
Roslansky delivers such insights in a Times dubbed the first stage of its pull- worst will happen.
crisp, bullet-point style befitting an back from China — the shutdown of its He had been named to LinkedIn’s
executive who launched the “influ- localised social media site in 2021 — the top job in February 2020, weeks before
encer” and content programmes that end of an unsustainable compromise Covid-19 was declared a pandemic,
turned LinkedIn from a site for recruit- between profit and ethics. and took the reins that June when a
ers and jobseekers into a haven for peo- “I’ve constantly been trying to figure sudden freeze in hiring and advertis-
ple to disperse views on how to get to the ing was throttling the company’s two
top and what to do once you get there. main revenue sources. He made a big
The CVs that LinkedIn’s members early bet that LinkedIn could find new
have shared since it started two decades A day in growth by rolling out tools for users who
ago add up to 10bn years of experience, the life were out of work, pushing skills-build-
he says. One of the challenges of his role ing content to job-swappers engaged in
has been to work out how to “pull all of what he dubbed “the great reshuffle”,
this knowledge out of people’s heads”. There’s a set of [meetings] we use to and helping previously desk bound
The new sharing tools, news feeds, run the company effectively that are employees navigate the shift to remote
newsletters and video series he and his very important to me. Every Tuesday, working.
team have built are designed to keep we have our executive team meeting. “I put all of my eggs in the basket
users coming back more often. “Solving It’s half the day and that’s where we of we’re going to transform LinkedIn
problems is much more of a frequent just talk about everything that’s to help the world learn when they
use case than searching for a job,” he happening across the company. can’t get together in person, sell when
observes. Every two weeks, I bring the entire you can’t go and meet a customer,
Roslansky’s own LinkedIn profile company together for what we call a and recruit when you can’t interview
details his 14 years at the company, “company connects”. It’s in a format somebody in person.” As companies
starting as chief product officer in 2009, where we go through the top priorities started hiring and advertising again,
and his jobs before that at Glam Media, of the company, we have “open mic”, revenues climbed from $8bn to $10.3bn
Yahoo and the housing-themed dotcom we call it, for anybody’s questions. It’s a in the year to June 2021. They are
start-up he dropped out of college to run coming together moment every two expected to exceed $15bn for the year to
in 1997. weeks no matter what . . . You know, June 2023.
But it does not capture the experience trust is consistency over time and you Along the way, Roslansky has been
he says most shaped him as a leader — can’t substitute either of those things. working to master the platform he
an episode from his childhood. Roslan- The thing that’s, probably ironically, helped to create. With more than
sky grew up in the Sierra Nevada moun- most important to me is having a 725,000 followers, he has become one of
tains near Lake Tahoe. His parents were strong work-life balance. I have three LinkedIn’s “Top Voices”, part of a pan-
hippies-turned-real estate entrepre- daughters and it’s extremely important theon of corporate influencers that
neurs who taught him something about for me to make sure I’m there for them includes Bill Gates, Arianna Huffington
taking control of one’s career. as much as I’m here for LinkedIn. So I and Nadella. His regular videos on the
When he was 13, they put him on a will always take my daughters to site, in which he interviews other execu-
plane to Florida, where he enrolled in school. I will always be home for tives about their career paths, also make
the intensely competitive Nick Bollet- dinner. Those things are non- him something of a rival to journalists
tieri Tennis Academy alongside the likes negotiable. And I think more than writing about leadership, I observe.
of Maria Sharapova and Andre Agassi. anything, it keeps me grounded and “I’m excited to talk to you because
The only American in his dorm, “I balanced. Because if I didn’t have I’m excited to learn how you do this,”
learned how to survive by understand- those set in place, it’s very easy to get he replies disarmingly. He has 46 skills,
ing other people very well”, he recalls, caught up in just answering what’s in other words, but is still looking to
building an empathy in later life for going on here all day long. add to them.
20 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES Monday 17 July 2023
ARTS
W
ith the opening of the
Schaulager in the Swiss
town of Basel in 2003,
architects Herzog & de
Meuron initiated the
shift in curatorial attention from the
exhibition space to the archive. There,
in their home town, in that vast, enig-
matic shed, they created a warehouse
for art, not a museum but a place in Installation view of the new Royal Academy exhibition — David Parry/Andreas Gursky
which, in theory at least, it was the
visitor who determined the objects that a photographer. That photographer is This leads us into the final room
were of interest rather than the curator Thomas Ruff, with whom H&deM have and its subject, the architects’ plans for
or the institution. Twenty years later been collaborating for decades. And just the huge and nearing completion
the trend is gathering pace: the V&A as we are shown how their design has Kinderspital (children’s hospital) in
is building an open storage facility in developed through the application and Zurich. This is a very different kind of
east London and the Boijmans van Beu- evolution of technology, so we see on architecture to that which we might be
ningen opened its version in Rotterdam one wall a conventional, if epic, photo of used to seeing displayed in the cultural
last year. the Ricola storage building (1987) amid context: fiercely complex, highly
With the construction of the Kabinett other shots which seem to be blurred serviced and technical.
(2014), a concrete structure looming and pixelated. At the end, a huge photo- It is presented here in a ghostly white
over the old railway yards in Basel, this collage fantasia of their Tai Kwun centre room with a mocked-up section of a
45-year-old practice — founded in 1978 in Hong Kong is set against an X-ray child’s hospital room with its opening
by Jacques Herzog and Pierre de Meu- skyline with buildings appearing as porthole window and seats. On the rear
ron — turned their archival attention on structural cages being overwhelmed by wall a huge plan drawing reveals the
themselves. This massive concrete box, speculative foliage. complexity of the construction in all its
almost medieval in scale and presence, The first of the three rooms does all meticulous detail. This is architecture
would house their own vast archives of this. It is also employs an augmented not as precious finished object but diffi-
design and process but also of art and reality app which sees chunks of struc- cult details, conditions and gestation.
photography. It is designed as a ture floating about on your phone
public archive capable of evolving into Above: Herzog & filled with large timber-framed glass screen as if in real space. It works better
a museum. Any exhibition then of de Meuron’s vitrines which are stuffed with the than most of these ventures but fails to
This is architecture
the architects’ work must, in a way, extension of the working models, material samples and add a huge amount to the material not as precious
compete with this legacy. Stadtcasino in waste products of their design proc- uality of the things behind glass.
The last exhibition of their work was Basel. Left: esses, illustrating how architecture The next room is dark and quiet. A big finished object but
housed in another of their creations,
the cavernous Turbine Hall of Tate
model for the
Elbphilhar-
progresses and how emerging technolo-
gies influence it.
screen in the middle. One side features
films of views of their buildings, each
difficult details,
Modern in London. Their newest show monie concert There is a roughly taped-up card- seen as a triptych. It is a reminder of how conditions and gestation
is in the very different confines of the hall in Hamburg board model of their “Bird’s Nest” many astonishing structures they have
Ruedi Walti
classical Royal Academy in London, a stadium (designed with Ai Weiwei, who contributed to architecture since their It is a powerful statement and here the
space lacking in the raw, brutal qualities later disassociated himself from the foundation in 1978. augmented reality kicks up a gear —
of their architecture. project) for the 2008 Beijing Olympics The other side features a newly com- point your phone at the plan and a con-
So what they have done is to import and there is an exquisite copper model missioned film from architecture’s struction site envelops you in all its dark
the cabinets from the Kabinett. Or at for their railway signal box in Basel pre-eminent filmmakers, Ila Bêka and contingent impenetrability. The con-
least reconstruct them. The first room is (1999). Their preoccupation with skins Louise Lemoine. It is an exploration of trast between this clinical white room
and surfaces is displayed here in abun- the practice’s Rehab clinic for neuro- and the dark density of the construction
dance, from that copper to the ceramics rehabilitation in Basel. A pioneering and site is stark. In that gap lies an entire
used in their M+ museum in Hong Kong humane building made for people who world. That, it seems to me, is what Her-
and the bronze of the De Young Museum find themselves confined by their disa- zog & De Meuron are attempting to con-
in San Francisco, but also the rammed bilities. The humanity and the joy in vey. This is not a retrospective, not a
earth walls of their Ricola Herb Centre simple things — a garden, a breeze, the hagiographic rear-view but a paean to
in Switzerland, the coarse ground, the skylights which allow patients to enjoy the power of architecture to make the
pebbles and the mud. This is categori- views of the clouds from their beds — is world better through building.
cally a display of architecture as a mate- abundant and allowed to shine through
rial practice, far removed from the con- without words. To October 15, royalacademy.org.uk
temporary curators’ vogue for archi-
tects who engage in social and environ-
mental activism or spatial justice.
Yet unlike, say, the current Norman
Foster exhibition at the Pompidou in
Paris, it refuses to fetishise the finished
building. Instead we are presented with
the exhaust, the detritus of process
placed in a vitrine. The things here are
intriguing but this is a cabinet of curiosi-
ties and not a traditional retrospective
in which we are shown sculptural mod-
els on plinths and suspiciously exquisite
construction drawings. But then neither
are there glimpses of anything personal.
Even Foster’s show features his old
snapshots and early sketchbooks. Here
we have architecture as a collaborative
pursuit, the practice as workshop.
While we might expect large-format
photos in an architecture exhibition,
here we find not architectural photo-
graphy but architecture as a subject for Herzog & de Meuron’s new Royal College of Art London campus — Iwan Baan
A
wife’s life, and once tried to drown her emotional. I have only heard the first
cat on the grounds that she was too fond four episodes, so there is still time for
t first, Bob Bierenbaum of it. After Gail disappeared, Alayne was it to find its feet. But currently, in trying
seemed quite the catch. A convinced that Bierenbaum was to be all things to all people — comedy,
surgeon who could speak responsible and resolved to bring him murder-mystery, meditation on
five languages, he was at to justice. domestic abuse — The Girlfriends is
the top of his field and True crime podcasts have evolved just a bit of a mess.
frequently travelled via a private jet that since the early days of Serial, when hosts
he piloted himself. When Carole Fisher, and producers salivated over the details
a divorced single parent from Las Vegas, of murder cases without giving due time
began dating him in the mid-1990s, she to the victims. The Girlfriends takes pains
was delighted, as was her mother who to tell Gail’s story with sensitivity (the
always wanted her daughter to get series has been made in collaboration
together with a Jewish doctor. But then with the domestic violence charity
Fisher discovered that Bierenbaum had NO MORE).
a short fuse: he yelled at her after she But despite its good intentions, the
broke a glass at his home, and falsely series never quite hangs together.
accused her of giving him syphilis after Having Fisher as its presenter is the first
noticing a rash on his hands. After six error. In the opening episodes she is
months, he called off the relationship. both host and interviewee as she is
But the story doesn’t end there. Fisher quizzed by the series producer Anna
had learned that Bierenbaum had Sinfield about her relationship with
an ex-wife, Gail Katz, who was missing, Bierenbaum. Fisher is a compelling
presumed dead. Wanting to know more, interviewee but, as a first-time podcast
she teamed up with another of his ex- host, she lacks the required charisma
girlfriends, Mindy, to discover the truth. and naturalism. Bob Bierenbaum in New York in
Their findings led to the creation of a The tone is also wildly uneven. At the 1999; women who dated him tell
new nine-part podcast hosted by Fisher. start, it is that of a comedy caper as their stories in ‘The Girlfriends’
Monday 17 July 2023 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES 21
Retailer’s redevelopment bid has raised questions about the ‘embodied carbon’ that is
lost by demolishing and replacing older buildings as opposed to retrofitting them.
By Dan Stewart
The FT View
Khan’s FTC should aim for evolution, not revolution
sive market power — rising prices — is ness would pull the popular Call of Duty Repeated of the regulator and its thinking. And the
Microsoft-Activision deal outdated. The second is that vertical game from Sony’s rival PlayStation plat- losses risk Supreme Court’s conservative majority
mergers, or consolidation between com- form. The judge said the FTC had also makes this an especially tricky environ-
setback suggests antitrust panies with a supplier-customer rela- failed to show the combination would
undermining
ment in which to persuade lower court
chief has over-reached tionship, can merit tougher antitrust substantially lessen competition in the the credibility judges to back novel legal theories.
action, not just “horizontal” mergers embryonic market for cloud gaming. of the regulator Khan’s FTC should be more selective
Lina Khan has had a rough few days. between rivals in one sector. Third, reg- The EU had already cleared the deal. and its thinking in the cases it fights, focusing on those
The Federal Trade Commission chair ulators should attempt to spot incipient The UK’s Competition and Markets where it has the most powerful evi-
suffered a setback in her ambitions to monopolies as they emerge, rather than Authority, which had blocked it, rowed dence. It could then focus its best efforts
beef up antitrust enforcement for the tackle them only after they have formed. back after the California decision. Yes- on winning key cases, or at least bring-
Big Tech era when a California judge The arguments, particularly the first, terday, Microsoft Gaming said it had ing compelling arguments. That is espe-
rejected her attempt to halt Microsoft’s have merit, and efforts to get ahead of signed an agreement to keep Call of Duty cially true with two potential landmark
$75bn purchase of Activision Blizzard, a the regulatory curve on tech are worth- on PlayStation after the acquisition. cases looming — against Meta over its
video game maker. On Thursday, Khan while. But the FTC’s crusading zeal has The FTC may yet press ahead with 2012 takeover of Instagram, and a suit
endured a four-hour grilling at an often moved too fast, given this is untested efforts to scupper the deal in its own Khan is said to be readying over Ama-
hostile Congressional hearing. The FTC ground. With no congressional majority administrative court, but that will be zon’s online marketplace.
appealed against the California judge’s to enact Khan’s ideas into law, more- much harder if the deal has already There is still scope for Khan’s FTC to
decision, but was rebuffed. The losses over, she was always likely to have to closed. And as one lawmaker noted last make a mark through rulemaking, such
are a sign that Khan’s team, however rely in part on creatively reinterpreting week, the latest loss meant Khan was as its proposal to ban employers from
well-intentioned, has over-reached. existing law and fighting cases in court. now “0 for 4 in merger trials”. imposing non-compete agreements on
Khan, along with Jonathan Kanter at The Microsoft-Activision deal was an Khan made clear last year she would workers. It is preparing to unveil new
the Department of Justice, came into important test incorporating elements push the legal envelope, noting: “You lose merger guidelines, and its probe into the
office determined to establish new prin- of the new thinking. But Judge Jacque- all the shots you don’t take”. But shots data privacy risks of OpenAI’s ChatGPT
ciples to shake up decades of antitrust line Scott Corley denied an injunction to that fail to hit the mark can prejudice chatbot is an innovative step. But when it
thinking. One is that the conventional stop the deal completing, rejecting the shots that might be taken later. Repeated comes to modernising antitrust, evolu-
ft.com/opinion test of harm to consumers from exces- FTC’s assertion that the combined busi- losses risk undermining the credibility tion may succeed better than revolution.
from killing biodiversity OECD’s lobbying points to failure on fair corporate taxation
We wish to congratulate the FT their anaemic proposals, which are may actually have the opposite efforts to kick-start a new round of
María Hergueta
for exposing the duplicity of the expected to provide minuscule sums effect. The reported attempts of negotiations at the UN, as called
OECD (“OECD lobbied to weaken to developing countries and emerging the OECD in Australia to actively for by the African Group at the UN
tax plans”, Report, July 8). The article markets in return for holding off undermine efforts to increase and following the adoption last
deftly explains how the organisation imposing digital and other taxes on transparency confirms we were autumn of the general assembly’s
pressured the Australian government multinationals. These taxes are critical right to worry. resolution to scale up international tax
to weaken critical transparency for raising badly needed revenues in Given the situation, ICRICT urges co-operation, fight illicit financial flows
requirements for multinational coming decades. developing countries and emerging and combat aggressive tax avoidance
corporate taxation. The OECD has designed reforms markets to, first, think carefully and evasion.
The Independent Commission for tilted in favour of its members — before signing on to the multilateral Joseph Stiglitz
the Reform of International Corporate advanced countries — and the convention to implement what is Co-Chair, ICRICT, Professor, Columbia
Taxation (ICRICT) has long been corporations in them. There’s known as amount A of pillar one of Business School, Columbia University,
concerned about the OECD’s central a distinct possibility that the allegedly the October 2021 G20-OECD inclusive New York, US
role in recent efforts to make minimum standards set in the framework agreement, which Jayati Ghosh
multinationals pay their fair share agreements will turn out to be the prohibits digital taxation and other Co-Chair, ICRICT, Professor,
of taxes. We grew especially worried de facto standards. If so, a reform measures needed to enhance tax Department of Economics, University
in 2021 after the OECD released effort intended to raise revenues revenues. Second, they should support of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA, US
T
mining for the critical minerals on the Conservative government’s new innovations require new laws is affirmative action in higher education
needed for green tech is occurring in plans to repeal the legislation one we would do well to remember at has sparked numerous discussions of
here is widespread agree- environmentally sensitive regions. underpinning the Leveson system of the moment (“We don’t need new admission policies (Report, July 11).
ment that climate change We need to chart a path that does independent press regulation (“Labour ‘neurorights’ — we need to know the These discussions have focused on
is an existential threat. not address one environmental chal- to oppose scrapping of controversial existing law”, Opinion, July 13). admissions from under-represented
But in our rush to address lenge by creating others. Indeed, with post-Leveson press rule”, Report, But Susie Alegre is mistaken in communities, yet fail to consider the
this challenge, our efforts pragmatic choices, we can do the FT.com, July 7) you explained only one setting her sights on the UK’s first thing — the purpose of higher
must not heighten another, more opposite, harnessing nature to address side of how that measure, Section 40 Information Commissioner’s Office education. I find this very odd.
immediate one: the global decline of climate change. of the Crime and Courts Act 2013, in this regard. We are not calling for Any evaluation of an admission
biodiversity. Consider carbon removal. Research would operate. new neurorights. The report she policy must start with determining
We are losing species at more than shows that between 2001 and 2019, Section 40 is a provision that references focuses on the application whether it serves the purpose of a
1,000 times the natural rate. If we stay forests around the world sequestered would level the playing field between of the existing data protection rights college. In my view, the purpose of
on this trajectory, we risk losing up to more than twice the amount of carbon defendant and claimant in media we regulate. higher education is to produce as
half of them by the middle of the cen- dioxide that they emitted — absorbing cases. It would incentivise both sides Regulating this area is not a task well-qualified graduates as possible. To
tury. Science is only just beginning to more than the combined annual emis- to use cheap arbitration to resolve we take lightly, particularly where that end, colleges should select
quantify the magnitude of throwing a sions of the US and UK. Nature is also legal disputes. technologies can have such an students based on their predicted
complex system like Mother Nature critical in dealing with the adaptation Your report claimed that, under impact on people’s lives. Our report competence on graduation. And
out of balance. But we know that biodi- necessary to prepare for increasingly Section 40, “any publishers outside The University of North Carolina lost was produced by data protection qualifications of college graduates
versity loss poses a fundamental risk severe weather shocks, such as the the only officially recognised regulator, its affirmative action case last month experts and lawyers, and peer correlate with their performance on
to health, prosperity and wellbeing. role of marshes and mangroves in Impress, would be required to pay legal reviewed by respected experts in traditional academic metrics on
Sadly, the singular focus on solving absorbing storm surges and floods. costs of both sides regardless of the the neurotech field. entering the college and not on
climate change has led to the neglect of Governments must think differ- outcome of any court case”. has social issues. Few, however, are also We will continue to work with whether they come from historically
biodiversity. The alarming result is that ently, employing better infrastructure While it is the case that defendant home to world-leading biomedical industry in this space, including under-represented communities.
many climate efforts inadvertently planning at all levels. A report from news organisations that refuse to join innovation with the potential to through our technology advisory panel The only way to increase admission
accelerate nature’s destruction. Take The Nature Conservancy shows care- a regulator may face an adverse costs transform our local community while that met last week, to offer sensible from these groups without subverting
the huge need for solar farms. If not ful siting can reduce the effects of the order whether or not the claim is delivering high returns on investment. and pragmatic advice on how data the college’s purpose is to better
located properly, they will have a big clean energy build out by 70 per cent successful, this applies only if the The snub follows on from Dundee’s protection laws apply. prepare applicants from these
compared with siting-as-usual prac- judge deems such an order to be just. green port bid being knocked back and Stephen Almond communities. Tinkering with
tices. Solar farms can be put on Your account also makes no mention government failure to use levelling-up Executive Director, Information admission policies can make diversity
The result of this singular already degraded land. Transmission
lines and pipelines can be placed to
of Section 40’s reverse effect — that any
regulated newspaper title would be
funding to support the city’s vision for
long-term economic transformation.
Commissioner’s Office, Wilmslow,
Cheshire, UK
numbers right but it cannot make
more diversity students Harvard or
focus is that many efforts minimise impact. Wind turbines can immune from paying claimant costs Our university’s spinout successes Yale qualified.
inadvertently accelerate be sited to avoid important migratory even if it were to lose. include the UK’s fastest-growing Hunt’s pensions plan falls Lenny Gengrinovich
pathways: even painting one blade The article makes no reference to pharma company, Exscientia, which Oradell, NJ, US
nature’s destruction black can help birds avoid collisions. the plight of ordinary people, like me, completed Europe’s biggest ever down at question of fees
We need creative solutions, such as who suffered libellous coverage at the biotechnology intellectual property Helen Thomas is right that the An AI in play can keep
impact on ecosystems and habitats. high-quality carbon credits, to protect hands of multimillionaire newspaper offering in 2021. A lack of government’s umpteen pension
In Virginia, for example, more than rich ecosystems such as rainforests, publishers. I was able to bring an action infrastructure has hampered our documents don’t “inspire confidence” the doctor’s mistakes away
half of solar facilities are being built on while also helping finance a transition on the basis of a no win, no fee ability to anchor successful companies that there is a clear “direction of travel”, The biggest promise of artificial
forested land rather than areas such as to a clean energy economy. agreement, but these agreements are in the area, however, and investment as promised by the chancellor (“The intelligence lies in supporting the
rooftops or parking lots. The state’s Regulators should take concrete now almost impossible to get hold of. zone funding would have supported future of UK pensions: delayed and decisions doctors make when
push for solar development could lead measures to signal to the market that For ordinary people abused by the the creation of a life sciences confused”, Opinion, FT.com, July 12). diagnosing and treating patients
to the deforestation of nearly 30,000 there is no place for policies harmful press, Section 40 would be a lifeline. innovation district to grow capabilities, Moreover, Jeremy Hunt’s “big idea” — not simply in expanding medical
acres annually. to biodiversity in efforts to achieve net Christopher Jefferies attract inward investment and create — boosting pensions by “over £1,000 care in the absence of doctors
In California, 161 planned or operat- zero. Global governance structures Bristol, UK hundreds of high-quality jobs. a year” by getting all defined (“Should the AI doctor see you now?”,
ing utility-scale solar power develop- should be reformed to ensure that cli- Our ambition is that the innovation contribution pension savers to put Opinion, July 14).
ments were built on undeveloped mate and biodiversity efforts are not Investment zones add to district unlocks the city’s expertise in 5 per cent into private equity — is Doctors are trained to see patterns,
desert with sensitive wildlife habitats. disjointed and siloed. Currently, there life sciences, digital and artificial pure snake oil. and invariably try to squeeze
This has been a disaster for a wide is a global scientific body dedicated to the levelling-up neglect intelligence by building on connectivity Even if we believe private equity symptoms and outcomes into the
range of plants and animals in the biodiversity, and a separate one for cli- Last month Chloe Smith, the UK’s with local research institutes and the returns are more than just a function limited patterns they feel familiar with.
Mojave Desert, and the destruction is mate. Likewise, there is a global UN science secretary, spoke about the public and private sectors. This will of very high debt, and very low interest However, diseases and patients are
only going to expand. conference for climate, and a separate government’s ambitions of creating bring economic benefits and rates — now no longer the case — most much more complex, and doctors
Wind farms present a similar chal- one for biodiversity. a scientific superpower (Report, improvements to healthcare, food outperformance is lost to end-investors invariably miss important hints.
lenge. To meet net zero targets, wind COP28 is an opportunity to elevate FT.com, June 27). Two days later, productivity, and the health and wealth in very high annual and performance AI, however, can deal with more
electricity generation needs a massive biodiversity to the main stage. The Michael Gove, the levelling-up of our citizens. fees. Even the government’s analysis complexity, alerting the doctor to
build out. But in meeting the Biden United Arab Emirates, taking the secretary, announced Dundee had With the third round of levelling-up shows people could easily be worse off, potential diagnoses or treatments that
administration’s admirable goal of COP28 presidency, must ensure that it missed out on a designation as one funding, the government can rectify after fees, than sticking with quoted she or he would not have thought of.
deploying 30 gigawatts of offshore is treated in tandem with climate of Scotland’s new investment zones. this by delivering support to one of the equities with very low fees. We would all get better medical care if
wind by 2030, bird deaths from colli- change and develop a global agenda This is despite the University of UK’s most innovative — and deprived The clutch of City firms that have our doctors made good use of AI.
sions could rise to more than a million that deals with both. This should be a Dundee being ranked the UK’s top — cities to realise its potential while signed up to the Mansion House Ludwig Kanzler
per year. low lift given the UN’s COP28 high- university for biological sciences and transforming the prospects of its compact will certainly make money Tokyo, Japan
There is a real risk that badly level champion Razan Al Mubarak is one of the best institutions for turning population. out of pushing pension savers into
planned renewable infrastructure will also president of the International innovation into economic impact. Professor Dario Alessi private equity. If it really does lead
have an even greater impact on biodi- Union for Conservation of Nature. Life sciences is one of the priority Director of the Medical Research Council to higher average long-term returns, Correction
versity than existing fossil fuel infra- It would be a tragic irony if, in our sectors that investment zones are Protein Phosphorylation and with negligible risk, why don’t these
structure. A Brookings Institution efforts to deal with climate change, we intended to drive growth in by Ubiquitylation Unit firms offer to provide a guarantee c William Li, chief executive of Chinese
report says that wind and solar gener- end up accelerating a bigger and “leveraging existing strengths and Professor Julian Blow of outperformance, for a modest electric vehicle maker Nio, did not make
ation require at least 10 times as much immediate crisis in the natural world. assets to increase opportunities for Dean of the School of Life Sciences fee reflecting the (supposedly) a reference to the red carpet treatment
land per unit of power produced as local communities”. Dundee’s case was Professor Doreen Cantrell modest risk? Elon Musk received from Chinese
fossil fuel-powered plants. The writer, a former US Treasury secre- a compelling one. Wellcome Trust Principal Research Fellow John Ralfe officials last month, as wrongly
Hydropower can disrupt aquatic tary, chairs the Paulson Institute Like many areas of the UK, the city Full list of signatories on FT.com/letters Kirk Ireton, Derbyshire, UK attributed to him in an article on July 13.
Monday 17 July 2023 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES 23
Opinion
The trouble with US exceptionalism Idea of migrant
barges should
MARKETS
a full six times the average in other
developed economies.
public spending exceeds the govern-
ment’s interest payments. That feat was
end up with more new debt than new
growth. The Biden team clearly feels
US. A recent study from the Federal
Reserve attributed two-thirds of Amer- be consigned
How did the US steer so deeply into easier to achieve when interest rates this advice doesn’t apply to the world’s ica’s recent inflation surge to excess
Ruchir
Sharma
the red? Most countries have ended the
spending programmes they launched to
were near zero, however. Now that rates
are rising, it’s almost impossible.
leading economic superpower.
Through 2025, the trillions unleashed
demand, and half that increase in
demand to deficit spending.
to history
ease the pain of pandemic-induced Though public debt is at historic highs by this administration will push govern- But the positive view on American
lockdowns. But all the $6.7tn in new — more than 100 per cent of GDP across ment spending up to 39 per cent of GDP, exceptionalism still dominates. Many
T
spending from the Biden administra- the developed world — it is stabilising in most of it not covered by new revenue. favour Biden’s calls for bigger govern-
tion came after 2020 was over. Most of it Europe but rising relentlessly in the US. In other big developed economies, ment, dismissing fears of a deficit- Anna
he buzz around “American had nothing to do with pandemic relief. With interest rates rising rapidly at the spending is poised to fall sharply as a driven crisis as crying wolf and pre-
exceptionalism” keeps on Instead, Joe Biden used the sense of share of GDP, while revenues hold up paring for a threat that never comes. McKay
growing, boosted by the crisis to launch a latter-day New Deal, relatively well. They scoff at the idea that foreigners
I
strength of the US economy
and markets compared with
building infrastructure and industry
ostensibly to compete with China and
No other government plans Under pressure from Congress last
month, Biden signed the Fiscal Respon-
might ever tire of financing US spending
habits or buying into US markets.
other developed countries — and to a combat climate change. No other gov- to spend as heavily, leaving sibility Act of 2023, creating the appear- America’s flaws pale and its technology n the coming weeks, the British gov-
stumbling China. But this confident talk ernment plans to spend as heavily, leav- the country all but alone on ance of a new restraint. Despite what dazzles in comparison to rivals in ernment will accommodate asylum
overlooks the extent to which US growth ing the US all but alone on the road to look like large spending cuts of $1.3tn Europe and Asia. seekers on board a barge in Port-
now depends on deficits and debt. deeper deficits. Bidenomics fans see it as the road to deeper deficits over 10 years, the US deficit is still pro- So why should anyone care about the land, Dorset. This plan was for-
Based on those measures, the US has smart investment. But they ignore the jected to hover near 6 per cent of GDP US’s deepening debt and deficits? mally announced in April, but the
started to look exceptional in a bad way. curve-busting scale of new spending and same time, the interest paid on public throughout the next decade. Because it is now one of the most fiscally barge is yet to arrive, delayed by pro-
Once typical, it is now the biggest deficit its potential consequences for US debt, debt is increasing — and doing so much Though inflation dipped last week, it’s irresponsible nations. Its deficit has tests and growing public criticism.
spender in the developed world. During inflation, and growth in the long run. faster in the US. still running well above 2 per cent, and climbed the ranks to worst in the devel- Britain has seen this before: it’s
the pandemic, the US budget deficit tri- The US has been running deficits Within 10 years, US government Biden’s defenders blame its return on oped world, its public debt is already the impossible to look at the policy without
pled to more than 10 per cent of gross almost every year since the 1960s with- interest payments will exceed spending anything but his spending plans, includ- third highest after Japan and Italy. To making historical comparisons to
domestic product, more than double out triggering a serious financial crisis. on defence and on social programmes ing the lingering effect of global supply wilfully ignore this new reality is an prison hulks, 19th-century floating pris-
the peak in other developed economies. So the conventional wisdom is that defi- such as Medicaid. The Bank for Interna- chain disruptions. While inflation did exceptionally risky mistake. ons etched on to public memory thanks
In coming years, the US deficit is cits don’t matter. Many economists tional Settlements says developed econ- spike worldwide, it did so most sharply to screen adaptations of Great Expecta-
expected to average close to 6 per cent of argue that they pay for themselves if the omies need to bring deficits down in nations that spent the most during The writer is chair of Rockefeller Interna- tions. What’s different today is that we
GDP — well above its historic norm, and economic growth generated by new sharply in this high-rate environment or the pandemic. Few spent more than the tional no longer hold the Victorian values that
upheld that system. Back then, it took
far longer for public opinion to turn
against these sites.
Matt Kenyon
There are striking parallels between
those days and now. Prison hulks were
rulings hold
prisons. Hulks became the linchpins
that supported the government’s policy
of deportation to New South Wales and
Tasmania.
Of course, ships have always been
used to provide temporary accommo-
T
them by creating what might be called a
rainbow aristocracy. days of prison hulks in
wo recent Supreme Court Research by the economist Raj Chetty
rulings — one ending shows that Harvard, for example, has 15 the 19th century and now
affirmative action in uni- times as many students from the richest
versity admissions and fifth of the population than the poorest their degrees have to start making pay- year of roughly $80,000 in university due, given that university education in that escaped convicts would pose a
another vetoing Joe Biden’s fifth. Likewise, black, Hispanic and ments again. This will inevitably start fees for my eldest child. If you aren’t sit- America hasn’t been revamped in a threat to the community. During recent
student debt forgiveness plan — have Native American students received a lessening their ability to spend on other ting on lots of cash, or if you are not major way since the end of the second protests against the Bibby Stockholm,
been lambasted by progressives as yet bigger boost than lower income stu- things. New York Fed research has receiving a fair amount of financial aid, world war. the people of Portland expressed similar
more evidence that the judicial branch dents in admissions. No wonder 71 per shown that student debt levels are one you have only a couple of ways to deal Indeed, this is already starting to hap- concerns that the town does not have
is wrecking America. But there is a silver cent of those students come from col- of the biggest mid to longer term struc- with this. pen. The huge amount of stimulus adequate infrastructure to support the
lining to almost everything, and I can lege-educated homes with incomes tural risks to the US economy. First, you can take on boatloads of money being poured into the re-indus- plan, that streets will not be safe and
see one here. The Supreme Court has above the national median. That puts I believe this decision is also going to debt (student loan debt payments actu- trialisation of the US has put vocational that tourism will be affected. Already,
unwittingly elevated the issue of income them in the top fifth of the income spec- add fuel to the fire of an already testy ally skewed towards upper income education back in vogue. The need to cruise ships scheduled to visit the
inequality, and the need for class-based trum of their own racial groups. Many debate about the ridiculous levels of households, which are rich in the meri- reduce the overall burden of college Jurassic Coast are beginning to bypass
educational reform in the US. top schools have similar trends. inflation in higher education, and how tocratic anxiety that props up the busi- costs has created a tailwind for so-called the port due to the disruption.
Let’s start with the first ruling, out- All this ends up pitting low income to rein in costs while simultaneously ness models of so many schools). Or you “6 in 4” schools, which offer two years of Others object to the policy on human-
lawing affirmative action, which has for students — no matter what their colour improving education itself. This would can make some major lifestyle changes. college credits within the context of a itarian grounds, given that the ship is
more than half a century allowed col- is — against each other. This phenome- be a very good thing. This is becoming a macro as well as a four year secondary education. These due to house asylum seekers — many of
leges to admit more minority students non is, of course, cleverly exploited by Between 1979 and 2021, the price of a microeconomic issue. Many people I schools — which are catching on not whom have fled war and persecution.
on the basis of race. Certainly, this has some conservatives, in order to fuel four-year degree from an American col- know are working longer than planned only in the US but in many other parts of The detainees will probably arrive in
helped more people of colour into top anger among poorer white voters that lege (either public or private) tripled — in order to pay for a child’s education as the world — have the effect of improving small, staggered groups: imagine being
schools, which is a good thing. But the the system is rigged against them. It’s an and that’s after accounting for normal well as their own retirement. That will high school curriculums even as they met by protests, shouts and placards.
dirty little secret of affirmative action is effective argument because it’s partly inflation. I am about to pay the fourth inevitably distort labour markets and make college shorter and cheaper. In the 19th century, ordinary people
that colleges also use it to help get well- true. The system is rigged against the thus the economy as a whole. The Supreme Court didn’t set out to initially turned a blind eye to the hulks
off students of all colours (and national- less affluent. Clearly, this system isn’t working. revolutionise American higher educa- — they were immersed in their own
ities — nothing says “global luxury
brand” like a degree from a top Ameri-
This gets to the second Supreme Court
ruling, barring Biden’s debt forgiveness
Justices have elevated the Unless Biden can somehow push
through a student debt jubilee in the
tion by killing affirmative action and
cancelling Biden’s debt forgiveness
problems, since wars with America and
France had caused a recession and pov-
can university) through the doors. scheme for students. This may create issue of income inequality future, I think we are going to have plans. But if that’s the end result, so erty was widespread. But public opinion
This means that while higher education what a number of economists believe and need for class-based broad-based college education reform. much the better. experienced a shift thanks to a boom in
has become more diverse by culture could be a recessionary headwind as the That means we are likely to have a Victorian-era press coverage. Newspa-
and ethnicity, the income gap has grown 27mn people who borrowed to pay for educational reform national conversation that is long over- rana.foroohar@ft.com pers, pamphlets, and periodicals circu-
lated, and literacy rates climbed. Rich
and poor alike read about the hulks.
Opinion began to shift. People stopped
thinking of the convicts as dangerous —
EU needs to aim for its own Belt and Road instead, they began to see them as hav-
ing been let down by the state.
Prison inspectors published reports
that outlined the cost of maintaining the
leaky and rotting wooden ships, and
starting, if not from square one, then not requires political underpinnings — does not mean it has been wrong to try. tion than the EU has shown to date. It pointed out that it was significantly
ECONOMICS much further than square two. At best, which Europe was long content to let the The EU is, to be fair, catching up. Its would require a commensurate devo- more expensive to continually repair
the EU-Mercosur trade agreement, US sustain. After the 2008 crisis, Euro- pandemic recovery fund, new energy tion of both financial and political and modify them than it was to build
Martin under way for decades, will get a politi- pean leaders were too consumed by policy and drive to promote technologi- resources, and partnership forms going permanent prisons on land. Today,
cal push towards ratification. internal problems to adapt to America’s cal and industrial investment have deeper than conventional trade deals. campaigners argue that the plans to put
Sandbu The likely underwhelming summit is increasing dereliction of this role. righted the balance that made some This could mean new forms of partici- asylum seekers on the Bibby Stockholm
a sign that the EU has not contemplated, The pandemic and the war have member states look kindlier on Beijing pating in the single market itself, or won’t end the use of hotels, and that sav-
O
let alone articulated, what deeper forms boosted French president Emmanuel than on their neighbours. The war has large-scale migration partnerships. ings will be trivial.
of relationship it can offer non-mem- Macron’s concept of “strategic auton- rekindled the political will to use mem- As EU leaders contemplate how The change in public opinion in the
n paper, the EU should be bers beyond traditional trade deals and omy”, but even this comes with a dose of bership prospects to mould others in the they adapt their institutions to a larger mid-19th century undoubtedly contrib-
an attractive partner for association agreements. solipsism. More than standoffish auton- EU’s image. The current difficult deal- membership, they should also consider uted to the demise of the hulk system in
many low- and middle-in- The pandemic and Russia’s war ings with Turkey should be a cautionary how to create tighter links with far- England. It took longer to end in the col-
come countries across the against Ukraine woke European leaders tale: that country was reforming until it flung non-members. They should onies, including Bermuda and Gibraltar,
globe. It is the biggest mar-
ket in the world, its social model is
up to their continent’s dangerous
dependence on others for the founda-
What is missing is a was convinced in the 2000s that the
EU’s door was not open in good faith.
match China’s ambition and aim for a
global economy as centred on Europe
where media coverage was less outspo-
ken, and ships were removed from the
widely admired and it is less pushy on tions of its security, from energy to strategy for relationships The EU cannot afford to lose Ukraine in as possible. But they should aim higher public eye. Hulks haven’t been con-
foreign policy alignment than either microchips. They also found their geo- with countries beyond the the same way. than Beijing in attracting countries signed entirely to history. HMP Weare, a
China or the US. political priorities were less widely What is missing still is a committed not through financial entrapment but prison ship that was in use in Portland
Also on paper, Latin America should shared than they may have assumed membership candidates strategy for deep relationships with by offering deeper, mutually beneficial Harbour from 1997-2005, was the object
be the most promising place for the EU when this mattered less. countries beyond the conceivable mem- links. of political controversy as it was both
to press this advantage home. The The first step to solving the problem — omy, the EU needs strategic engage- bership candidates. This is not just a Think of this more-for-more unpopular and costly to run.
region is culturally close to Europe, recognising that it exists — is happening, ment to get other countries more firmly matter of, say, securing critical minerals approach as “Belt and Road with liberal Today, it feels as though support for
it is largely democratic and shares then. Not before time. The construction on its side. and metals supplies (though it is that democratic characteristics”. That may migrant barges is already beginning to
the EU’s founding values, and immigra- of post-1945 European unity around Europe’s neglect of the world con- too). It is about shaping a world where seem unrealistic. Yet it is of the deepest falter. While the Home Office may
tion from it into the bloc has been economic integration conditioned lead- trasts with China’s Belt and Road Initia- the EU remains relevant because it has realism, for nothing less can protect choose to ignore the historical parallels,
relatively easy to absorb. ers to seeing the world stage as a market tive, which uses geopolitics and infra- more and closer allies on global issues Europe’s interests if the US gives up on the public is not. It may only be a matter
But when European and Latin Ameri- square: a place to sell exports and source structure to reshape trade patterns to such as the geography of supply chains, the liberal rules-based order after next of time before the policy sinks.
can leaders meet this week for their first raw materials. its advantage — including by turning tech rules, multilateral governance and year’s presidential election.
summit in almost a decade, their A marketplace, however, is so easy to the heads of some EU states. The fact climate change. The writer is a historian at the University of
attempts at collaboration will feel like take for granted that one forgets it that Beijing has not fully succeeded That is a much higher-stakes ambi- martin.sandbu@ft.com Liverpool
24 ★ Monday 17 July 2023*