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A Cloud Model-Based Method For The Analysis of Accelerated Life Test Data
A Cloud Model-Based Method For The Analysis of Accelerated Life Test Data
A Cloud Model-Based Method For The Analysis of Accelerated Life Test Data
Microelectronics Reliability
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/microrel
A cloud model-based method for the analysis of accelerated life test data
Wenjin Zhang a, Shunli Liu b, Bo Sun a,⇑, Yue Liu a, Michael Pecht c
a
School of Reliability and Systems Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China
b
Avic Aviation Motor Control System Institute, Wuxi 214000, China
c
Center for Advanced Life Cycle Engineering (CALCE), University of Maryland, USA
a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t
Article history: Various curve fitting models, including the Arrhenius stress model, inverse power law model, and Eyring
Received 13 November 2012 model have been used to model the load (stress) – life relationship to aid in planning accelerated life
Received in revised form 5 September 2014 tests; that is, the relationship between the mean of the sample lifetimes and the testing stress level.
Accepted 9 October 2014
The load-life relationship is a one-to-one relationship: one mean of the sample lifetimes corresponds
Available online 8 November 2014
to one testing stress level. However, due to the random uncertainties existing in the testing stress, the
relationship should be a many-to-many relationship rather than one testing stress corresponding one
Keywords:
mean lifetime of the tested product. Based on the one-to-one relationship of the mean of the sample
Accelerated life test
Uncertainty
lifetimes to the testing stress level, a many-to-many relationship can be derived using the reasoning
Cloud model method presented in this paper. The reasoning method is constructed as ‘If X, then Y.’ X is termed the rule
Stress cloud antecedent, and Y is called the rule consequent. They are constructed with the stress values and the
Life cloud sample lifetimes, respectively, based on the cloud model, which represents random uncertainty and fuzzy
Multi-rule-based cloud reasoner uncertainty. The reasoning method presented is called the multi-rule-based cloud reasoner, which can
refine the one-to-one relationship established by models such as the Arrhenius stress model to a
many-to-many relationship. In the case study, the multi-rule-based cloud reasoner was applied to a
thermal stress accelerated life test of ammunition fuses. The results from the multi-rule-based cloud rea-
soner were compared with the estimation results from a normal cloud generator under a stress level of
20 °C. The results showed that the many-to-many relationship between the uncertain stress level and the
means of the sample lifetimes was derived by the multi-rule-based cloud reasoner.
Ó 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.microrel.2014.10.006
0026-2714/Ó 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
124 W. Zhang et al. / Microelectronics Reliability 55 (2015) 123–128
and lifetimes may be inaccurate if the variability in testing stress certainty grade u(x) of x belonging to C is a random variable with
levels is ignored. a stable tendency [15]:
Uncertainty in the testing equipment will introduce some
l : U ! ½0; 1 8x 2 U; x ! uðxÞ ð1Þ
amount of uncertainty in the estimates resulting from the ALT.
Specifically, the control accuracy of the testing equipment affects Then, the distribution of x in the domain of discourse U is called
the magnitude of the uncertainty in the testing stress levels, where a cloud, and each x is called a cloud drop, which is a random instan-
higher control accuracy results in a lower uncertainty in the testing tiation in probability theory, where the certainty degree is the
stress level. Generally, newly developed testing equipment has a membership degree in fuzzy set theory.
high precision controller to keep the uncertainty of the testing The cloud model consists of three feature parameters: Ex, En,
stress level under 0.1 °C. However, obsolete testing equipment is and He. Together they express an uncertainty concept [11]. Ex is
still used due to financial constraints, policies, or other factors. the expectancy of the cloud model, denoting the distribution
The uncertainty within the testing stress level should not be expectation of the cloud drop in the domain distribution, and also
ignored when the stress level is processed. In order to continue representing the most typical sample of this quantification con-
to use the older testing equipment and get accurate results, the cept. En is the entropy of the cloud model, denoting the uncertainty
effects of the uncertainty of the stress in ALT should be qualified. measure of the qualification concept, which is the stochastic mea-
One feasible solution is to qualify and process the uncertainty sure of the qualification concept. He is the hyper-entropy of the
using a cloud model. A cloud model represents random uncertainty cloud model, which is the uncertainty measure of entropy deter-
and fuzzy uncertainty using probability theory and fuzzy mathe- mined by both the randomness and the fuzziness of the entropy
matics [11]. It transforms qualitative concepts to quantitative [11]. Due to He, the cloud model has a heavy-tailed property, which
values, or quantitative values to qualitative concepts, using a keeps the quantitative values from obeying a normal distribution.
forward cloud generator, a backward cloud generator, or the The distribution of the cloud drops can be transformed from a nor-
approximate index method [12,13]. These are described in detail mal distribution to a heavy-tailed distribution or from a heavy-
in Section 2 of this paper. tailed distribution to a normal distribution by changing the value
In this work, the uncertain stress data and random sample life- of He [16], which expands the scope of the cloud model.
time data in the constant stress ALT are processed based on the In ALT, the stress data and the lifetime data do not obey a normal
cloud model. The relationship between the uncertain stress level distribution. Therefore, they are processed based on a cloud model
and the testing sample lifetime is also refined based on a reasoning in this paper. Stress data were used to establish a model called the
method. The reasoning method is called a multi-rule-based cloud stress cloud. The sample lifetime data were used to establish a
reasoner in this paper. It is constructed based on the cloud model model called the life cloud. The process of establishing the stress
methodology. Once the relationship is refined, any number of the cloud and life cloud is described in the following sections.
random means of the sample lifetimes can be derived from the
multi-rule-based cloud reasoner. 2.2. Stress cloud
This paper is organized into six sections. In Section 2, cloud the-
ory is presented. Based on cloud theory, the stress cloud and life The stress cloud is recorded as Cs = (Exs, Ens, Hes), where Exs is
cloud are described. In Section 3, three assumptions about the the testing stress value set in the accelerated equipment, Ens
uncertain stress level, the sample lifetimes, and their relationships indicates the fluctuation range of the stress level, and Hes measures
are given. These assumptions are the preconditions to ALT data the deviation of the stress data from the normal distribution due to
processing based on the cloud model. In order to refine the rela- the combined influence of the uncertain testing environment and
tionship between the uncertain stress level and the sample life- the test behavior. The fluctuation range of the testing stress is pro-
times, Section 4 presents a multi-rule-based cloud reasoner, vided by the manufacturer of the accelerated testing equipment.
which is constructed with several stress clouds and their corre- Taking a thermostat as an example, the fluctuation range of the
sponding life clouds. In Section 5, the procedure is applied in a case testing temperature is often given in the form of t ± e. Then, the
study on ammunition fuse storage life assessment. In Section 6, feature parameters of the stress cloud are calculated by the
conclusions about multi-rule-based cloud reasoner construction approximate indicator method. The computational formulas are
and its function are presented, and directions for future research as follows [13]:
are presented as well.
Exs ¼ Ext ¼ t ð2Þ
2. Stress cloud and life cloud of ALT Ens ¼ Ent ¼ e=n ð3Þ
Probability theory is the main mathematical tool used to deal Hes ¼ Het ¼ k ð4Þ
with randomness. The normal distribution is widely used to
approximate a large number of random phenomena. Fuzzy sets where n reflects the frequency of the temperature exceeding the
theory is the main method used to deal with fuzziness. The normal range of t ± e. The greater the value of n is, the lower the frequency
membership function is widely used to qualify the fuzzy concept. is. Usually, n is made to equal 3 or 6; this is commonly referred to as
By integrating the uncertainty processing advantages of the normal the 3-sigma or 6-sigma principle. The k in (4) is an empirical con-
distribution and normal membership function, Li [14] developed stant estimated considering the uncertainty of the accelerated
cloud theory in 1996. The cloud model measures the deviation of stress provided by the thermostat.
a random phenomenon from a normal distribution when the ran- If the fluctuation range of the testing stress is unknown, the
dom phenomenon does not satisfy a normal distribution. stress cloud Cs = (Exs, Ens, Hes) can be established by a backward
cloud generator with the sampling discrete testing stress levels
S = {s1, s2, . . .. . ., sn}. The algorithm of the backward cloud generator
2.1. Cloud and cloud drop is as follows [17]:
over the universe of discourse, U. If the quantitative value x belongs Exs ¼ si ði ¼ 1; 2; . . . . . . ; NÞ ð5Þ
N i¼1
to U, and x is the random realization of concept C, then the
W. Zhang et al. / Microelectronics Reliability 55 (2015) 123–128 125
The life cloud of the testing samples under normal working con- (5) Repeat steps (1)–(4) until i = P.
ditions can be determined by extrapolating the life clouds of the
samples under the accelerated stresses by an accelerator model The one-rule-based cloud reasoner represents the nearly linear
for different stress types and levels. For the single test stress, the uncertainty mapping between testing stresses and sample life-
Arrhenius model, inverse power law model can be used. For multi- times. While the uncertainty mapping is strongly nonlinear, the
ple test stress, the Eyring model can be used. The life cloud one-rule-based cloud reasoner brings calculation errors which can-
obtained based on extrapolation has great uncertainty, and the not be ignored. In order to improve the accuracy of the uncertainty
sample lifetimes belonging to the life cloud can be estimated by mapping representation, the multi-rule-based cloud reasoner con-
the forward cloud generator. The algorithm of the forward cloud structed by the one-rule-based cloud reasoner [19,20] can be
generator is described below [13]. applied. For example, N reasoning rules exist as follows.
Input: three parameters of the cloud model (Ex, En, He) and the If s 2 C t1 ; then T 2 C t1
T
number of cloud drops, N.
Output: N cloud drops and their certainty degree. If s 2 C tN ; then T 2 C tN
T
Steps:
(1) Generate a random En0s with Ens as the expectancy and Hes as
the standard deviation.
(2) Calculate the certainty of the stress, s, belonging to the
antecedent stress cloud li ¼ expfðs Exs Þ2 =ð2En0s Þg.
0
(3) Generate a normal random EnsT with ExsT as the expectancy
s
and EnT as the standard deviation.
pffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
(4) If s < Exs, then T i ¼ ExsT þ 2 lnðli ÞEnsT .
Fig. 4. Structure of one-rule-based cloud reasoner. Fig. 5. Structure of multi-rule-based cloud reasoner [19].
W. Zhang et al. / Microelectronics Reliability 55 (2015) 123–128 127
reason rules; m is the time of the stress, s, input to any antecedent Table 2
stress cloud each cycle; and l is the time of lij as the input to the ith Life cloud parameters of the samples under different accelerated stress clouds/h.
consequence stress cloud each cycle. Stress level ExT EnT HeT
When a stress value, si, is input in the multi-rule-based cloud C65°C (65 1.5 0.2) 1.480 ⁄ 103
2.512 ⁄ 102
30.25
reasoner, an uncertain value, which is a random mean value of C75°C (75 1.5 0.2) 0.437 ⁄ 103 0.779 ⁄ 102 10.88
the sample lifetime, will be the output. Inputting the stress, si, mul- C85°C (85 1.5 0.2) 0.236 ⁄ 103 33.924 4.54
tiple times will output a range of uncertain numbers. The mapping
relationship between inputs and outputs can be seen in Fig. 2. This
relationship can be achieved using a stress-life cloud reasoner.
5. Case study
Table A.1 The authors would like to thank CALCE and the more than 150
Sample lifetimes under the three ranges of stress clouds/103 h. sponsors of CALCE at the University of Maryland for their valuable
Index C65°C (65,1.5,0.4) C75°C (75,1.5,0.4) C85°C (85,1.5,0.4) support.
1 1.0604 0.3478 0.2466
2 1.2165 0.4524 0.2068 Appendix A.
3 1.7123 0.5028 0.2155
4 1.4662 0.4342 0.2551
(see Table A.1).
5 1.6294 0.5247 0.2053
6 1.5122 0.4687 0.2224
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