For a world

in motion

COVID-19 Impact on the

Road Transport Industry
Update: June 2021

IRU Intelligence Report

Update including:
• Purchasing Managers’ Index by sector
• Revenue forecasts for 2021
• Insolvency indicators for 2021

June 2021

iru.org
IRU 2 Intelligence Report – June 2021 IRU 3 COVID-19 Impact on the Road Transport Industry – June 2021

Introduction Bankruptcies accelerating

Commercial road transport
operators, in both mobility and
logistics, continue to be severely
impacted by COVID-19. This is
primarily due to social, sanitary
and mobility restrictions put in
place by governments to help
control the pandemic, coupled with
the consequent overall economic
downturn in some sectors.
are expected to be half of 2020
In 2020, IRU predicted a looming Goods road transport forecast losses (USD, global)
levels, passenger transport losses
wave of bankruptcies. With the
are forecast to be even higher than 2020 2021
sector facing continued revenue
last year.
losses globally in 2021, this looming
wave is turning into a real wave
This report updates IRU’s two
previous reports on the impacts of
of bankruptcies. -679 Bn -347 Bn
COVID-19 on the commercial road
transport sector, from June and
November 2020. Passenger road transport forecast losses (USD, global)

2020 2021
Both passenger and goods transport
are forecast to lose revenue globally
in 2021. While goods transport losses
-500 Bn -543 Bn

Distress call Goods transport

Global losses for the goods road
transport sector are expected to reach
Insolvency Risk Indicator – Goods transport

347 billion USD in 2021.

A full year into the pandemic, Global PMI by sector – Feb 21/Mar 21 Revenue growth Free Cash Flow
global mobility and supply chains 10 10
Although this is around half of the 10
remain disrupted. Telecommunication Services 9
679 billion USD losses suffered 8
Tourism & Recreation
46.9% by the sector in 2020, insolvency
Road transport companies have 49.7%
indicators for free cash flow remain
been crucial in responding to the Construction Materials at critical levels.
crisis in all parts of the world,
Beverages & Food
but many are now facing real
Liquidity shortages remain the
financial difficulties and struggling Media
most serious challenge for goods
to survive. 46.5%
Transportation 52.7%
transport operators.
1
2020 2021 2020 2021
The purchasing manager’s index Real Estate
(PMI) measures the expectations of
Forestry & Paper Products Passenger transport
purchasing managers in 21 sectors
Other Financials Mobility services have been
on their expected future orders. Insolvency Risk Indicator – Passenger transport
hit particularly hard during the
Chemicals
pandemic, especially international
Compared to all other sectors, Household & Personal Use Products Revenue growth Free Cash Flow
coach and tourism services.
purchasers of transport services 10 10 10 10
Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology 10
have a negative expectation of
Metals & Mining
Some types of services are still
future orders, expecting volumes,
suspended or severely restricted
on average, to contract. They do Industrial Services
and face little prospect of returning
not see predictability and certainty
Healthcare Services to normal operational levels for
when planning transport services,
Automobiles & Auto Parts some time.
as reflected in the negative PMI
scores for transportation, tourism Software & Services
Revenue losses in the passenger
and recreation. Insurance transport industry in 2021 are forecast
1
Machinery & Equipment to climb to 543 billion USD, 43 billion 2020 2021 2020 2021
Banks USD more than in 2020. Some 30%
of passenger operators have already
Technology Equipment
laid off staff.
Feb 21 Mar 21 40% 50% 60%
The score indicates an expansion/decline of the sector.
Source: HIS Markit, IRU analysis, 2021
 Government inaction
Limited, untargeted and mostly
uncoordinated action from the
world’s governments is putting
more road transport companies at
serious risk of going bankrupt.
Without support, road transport
operators will not be in a position
to drive economic recovery as the
global economy moves beyond
the impacts of the pandemic.
IRU calls on governments to
take immediate action:
▸ C
 oordinate pandemic responses
at global and cross-border level
▸ D
 eploy targeted financial
support measures
▸ U
 se digital tools that already
exist, including eTIR and e-CMR
▸ P
 rioritise commercial drivers in
national vaccination programmes

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