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If the yuan falls below last November's nadir of 7.328, that would be its
weakest level since December 2007.
The recent selling has been driven mainly by what the PBOC referred to as the
influence of monetary tightening in advanced economies. Repeated hikes by
the Federal Reserve pushed U.S. long-term interest rates above China's last
year for the first time in about 12 years.
The projections released by the Fed in June suggest two more increases in
2023, which would lift long-term rates to nearly 4%. China's benchmark 10-
year government bond yield, meanwhile, is sitting in the 2.7% range, close to
an all-time low. This apparent new normal of higher yields in the U.S. than in
China has dented the latter's ability to attract capital.
The yuan's slide is alarming the Chinese government, which still has fresh
memories of the "yuan shock" of 2015, when it nearly lost its grip on the
exchange rate.
The PBOC is taking action to check the currency's decline. Reuters has
reported that the central bank has guided lenders to cut interest rates on
dollar deposits.
The Bank of China, one of the four big state-owned institutions, is offering a
0.5% annual rate on six-month time deposits for retail customers -- down
from 2.6% in early June and below the 1.7% rate on yuan deposits -- removing
an incentive for depositors to sell yuan for other currencies.
But the PBOC remains leery of making any substantial rate cuts to boost the
economy, out of concern about widening the rate differential with the U.S. and
potentially accelerating the yuan's slide.
When the currency softened last fall, China added a "countercyclical factor"
back into calculations of the yuan's daily fix against the dollar to check its
decline. The central bank also lowered the foreign exchange reserve
requirement ratio, or the amount of foreign currency that commercial banks
need to keep set aside.
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อ้างอิง : https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/Currencies/As-yuan-
nears-15-year-low-China-s-hands-tied-on-monetary-stimulus