Assumptions 第一阶段 第二阶段

增速 6.0% 3.0%
折现率 10.0%
year count
0 1 2 3
自由现金流 73,365.0 77,766.9 82,432.9 87,378.9
折现 70,697.2 68,126.4 65,649.1
EV 1,347,169.3
Net debt (69,552.0)
Minority Interest -
Market Cap 1,416,721.3
Shares outstanding 17,001.8 增速
Price per share 83.33 4% 5%
折现率 12%
11%
10%
9%
8%

Assumptions 第一阶段 第二阶段

增速 15.0% 3.0%
折现率 10.0%
year count
0 1 2 3
自由现金流 40,270.2 46,310.7 53,257.3 61,245.9
折现 42,100.7 44,014.3 46,015.0
EV 1,442,655.4
Net debt (27,075.3)
Minority Interest 5,719.4
Market Cap 1,464,011.3
Shares outstanding 1,256.2 增速
Price per share 1165.43 10% 12%
折现率 12%
11%
10%
9%
8%
Apple Inc.
经营现金流过去三年CAGR 营收过去三年CAGR
7.9% 6.2%

永续价值=最后一年自由现金流*(1+二阶段增速)/(折现率-二阶段增
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
92,621.6 98,178.9 104,069.7 110,313.8 116,932.7 123,948.6 131,385.5
63,261.8 60,961.4 58,744.6 56,608.4 54,550.0 52,566.3 50,654.8

6% 7% 8%

贵州茅台
经营现金流过去三年CAGR 营收过去三年CAGR
15.8% 19.2%

永续价值=最后一年自由现金流*(1+二阶段增速)/(折现率-二阶段增
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
70,432.8 80,997.8 93,147.4 107,119.5 123,187.5 141,665.6 162,915.4
48,106.6 50,293.2 52,579.3 54,969.3 57,467.9 60,080.0 62,810.9

15% 18% 20%

速)/(折现率-二阶段增速)
永续价值
1,933,244.4
745,349.4

速)/(折现率-二阶段增速)
永续价值
2,397,184.0
924,218.2