ANSWER TEST STA104:

Question1 Answer
1(a)

Title
Axis
Plot

Comment: There is a positive relationship between the number of

lessons conducted fully in English and the average students’ rating

1(b)
x y x2 y2 xy
4 45 16 2025 180
7 79 49 6241 553
8 80 64 6400 640
3 40 9 1600 120
10 89 100 7921 890
5 56 25 3136 280
7 71 49 5041 497
11 98 121 9604 1078
4 50 16 2500 200
6 67 36 4489 402
65 675 485 48957 4840
 Comment: There is a strong positive relationship between the
number of lessons conducted fully in English and the average
students’ rating

1(c)

Regression equation:

1(d)
For every increase in one number of lesson conducted fully in
English, the average students’ rating will increase by 7.24%.

1(e)

Meaning: 96.51% total variation of average students’ rating can

be explained by the number of lessons conducted fully in English.

1(f)
Q2
a)
Two criteria of selecting a base year:
1)The base year should be normal and stable year (stable economy)
2)The base year shouldn’t be too far apart from the current year

bi IT = (10/6) x 100 = 166.6667

IS = (2/2) x 100 =100

ID= (6/4) x 100 = 150

IF = (12/10) x 100 = 120

IB = (12/8) x 100 = 150

Deodorant and Body lotion have the same value of percentage increase in price
in 2020 as compared to 2018

bii

The price for all items for year 2020 has increased by 37.33%
biii

biv
 The quantity for all items for year 2020 has decreased by 13.85%

biv 1)Easy to calculate

2)Presents a meaningful comparison because the changes in the index are
related to change in prices

QUESTION 3 (a)

Determine the appropriate components of the time series for the situation below

i) The revenue of Mega Holding is low during Movement Control Order (Irregular)
ii) The sales of baju kurung in the month of Ramadhan (Seasonal)
iii) Job opportunities during the economic recession (Cyclical)
iv) The number of registered UiTM students from the year 2012 to 2022 (Trend)

QUESTION 3 (b)

The following table shows the sales in (RM’000) of Harumanis by Fruity Shop from 2017 to 2019

Year Quarter
I II III IV
2017 - 23 37 44
2018 11 16 30 40
2019 19 28 30 45
i) Find the trend values for the sales using the moving average method (correct to three decimal places)
(5 marks)

Year Quarter Y 4-Moving 4-Moving Trend Seasonal

Total Average (Centred Variation
trend)

2017 1

2 23

3 37

115 28.750

4 44 27.875
157.848
108 27.000

2018 1 11 26.125 42.105

101 25.250

2 16 24.750 64.646

97 24.250

3 30
25.250
118.812
105 26.250

4 40 27.750 144.144

117 29.250

2019 1 19 29.250 64.957

117 29.250

2 28 29.875
93.724
122 30.500

3 30

4 45
 ii) Calculate the seasonal indices for each quarter

Year Quarter

1 2 3 4

2017 157.848

2018 42.105 64.646 118.812 144.144

2019 64.957 93.724

Total 107.062 158.37 118.812 301.992

Mean 53.531 79.185 118.812 √150.996

CF 𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅 400 √
=
𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴 402.524
√
SI (Mean x 53.195 78.688 118.067 150.049
CF)

∑ = 402.524
√
iii) Interpret the seasonal indices obtained for the second and third quarter
(2 marks)
The sales of Harumanis in the second quarter is 21.312% below the trend line due to seasonal
√√√
influence

The sales of Harumanis in the third quarter is 18.067% above the trend line due to seasonal
influence

iv) Forecast the sales of Harumanis in the first quarter of 2020.

(3 marks)
𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿 𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇 𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑣−𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹 𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇 𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑣
Average increase =
𝑛𝑛−1
29.875−27.875
=
7−1
= 0.3333
𝑇𝑇� = 𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿 𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡 𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑣 + (𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛. 𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜 𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠)(𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴 𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖)
= 29.875 + 3(0.3333)

= 30.875
𝑇𝑇� × 𝑆𝑆1 30.875 × 53.195
𝑌𝑌� = = = 16.424 ≈ 𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅16424
100 100