Exit, Voice, and Political

Change: Evidence from

Swedish Mass Migration
to the United States

TOPICS IN PUBLIC ECONOMICS

PROF.DR. STEFAN BAUERNSCHUSTER, PROF.DR. AIXA GARCIA-RAMOS

Presenters Kenzhebekova N., Mamasaidova O.

OUTLINE

INTRODUCTION
MOTIVATION
METHODOLOGY & IDENTIFICATION STRATEGY
REPLICATION
DISCUSSION
 BACKGROUND
IN 1860 - 1920 A TOTAL OF 1,3 MILLION SWEDES EMIGRATED

1867-1879 1864-1867 1869 1889 1909 1911-1921

First wave of mass Agriculture shocks: several motions The Social Participation in Increased voter
migration 83% of the advocating Democratic Party major general turnout in national

population lived in emigration was founded strikes significantly elections & higher
rural areas, thus restrictions were increases vote shares for left-
real GDP per capita raised in wing parties
fell parliament by its
members from
high-emigration
countie
 MOTIVATION AND RELEVANCE
How paper contributes to the existing literature

Did the US policy of open

borders during the 19th
century influence political
development in the Old
World?
x Transfer of attitudes from
host to origin countries
Motivation v Improved outside options
Channels
of connected citizens

The focus of this study Not only demand for political

is on Sweden, which is change but also actual
Outcome changes. ex. local policies &
US - destination origin country, where
the research is lacking variable institutions

Exploitation of plausibly
First study to make use
exogenous variation of
of 2 data sources from
emigration to indentify the Method the Swedish Migration
Data
causal effect on political
Center in Karlstad
outcomes
CAN LARGE SCALE EMIGRATION LEAD TO
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENT IN
UNDEMOCRATIC ORIGIN COUNTRIES
Central Research Question
WHAT CAUSAL EFFECT MASS EMIGRATION IN
THE 19TH CENTURY TO THE UNITED STATES
HAD ON THE POLITICAL OUTCOMES IN
SWEDEN?
Main outcome variable: membership in the local labor movement


METHODOLOGY


6

Aim to estimate the effect of emigration over the course

of Mass Migration on long-run political outcomes in 5

origin

municipalities

OLS

Issues: Biased
estimates of the effects
of emigration (reverse
causation, omitted
variables bias)

OLS equation of interest

political outcome in municipality m, county c, and year t

log of cummulated emigration from 1867 to year t
fixed effect for the 24 counties
vector of municipality characteristics before the mass emigration
error term for municipality m, county c, and year t
Table 1 in replication part
Omitted Variable Bias

Observable and
unobservable charactersitcs
of origin municipalities. For
example, infrastructure, Political
Emigration
social housing, Outcome
transportation, employment
opportunities, religious
tolerance
Reverse Causality

Political
Emigration
Outcome


METHODOLOGY


6

Aim to estimate the effect of emigration over the course

of Mass Migration on long-run political outcomes in 5

origin

municipalities

IV

OLS Solution: exploit

migration-related push
Issues: Biased factors prior to mass
estimates of the effects emigration
of emigration (reverse

causation, omitted
variables bias)

Key Identifying Assumptions

Independence assumption (IA):

Instrument is as good as randomly assigned, i.e., it is independent of the vector of potential
outcomes and potential treatment assignments

Exclusion Restriction
The instrument operates through a single known causal channel

Relevance of the Instrument

The instrument has an effect on the treatment status

Monotonicity
While the instrument may have no effect on some people, all those who are affected are affected
in the same way


METHODOLOGY



6

Aim to estimate the effect of emigration over the course

of Mass Migration on long-run political outcomes in

5

origin municipalities

Instrument

IV Frost Shocks x


Proximity to emigration
OLS Solution exploit port

migration-related push

Issues: Biased factors prior to mass

estimates of the effects emigration

of emigration (reverse

causation, omitted

variables bias)

FROST SHOCKS
Shock realtive to the local long-run weather in a
particular month. Frost day - day with a minimum
temperature below 0 °C
For each :
month, r
year, t
weather station, s

Frost shock = (number of frost days in that month) -

(long-run average number of frost days in that month)

Independence Assumption
Low temperatures and frost:
exogenous variation in emigration through
direct effect on crop yields
PROXIMITY TO EMIGRATION PORT
Proxy for the within-country travel cost of emigration.
Defined as minus the log distance to either Gothenburg
or Malmö, whichever is closest.

Frost Shocks x Proximity to nearest emigration port:

captures only variation in emigration push factors
controls for both proximity and frost shocks to
Gothenburg

aboid confouding direct effects of severe

economic shocks on plitical outcomes
Malmö
EXOGENEITY
OF THE
INSTRUMENT
EXCLUSION RESTRICTION ASSUMPTION

Frost Shocks
x Emigration Political
Proximity to Outcome
emigration port

ex. Internal
Migration
MONOTONICITY


METHODOLOGY




6

Aim to estimate the effect of emigration over the course

of Mass Migration on long-run political outcomes in 5

origin

municipalities

First Stage
1

Instrument Effect of the instrument



on emigration

IV Frost Shocks x (independent variable)


Proximity to emigration

OLS Solution exploit port

migration-related push

Issues: Biased factors prior to mass

estimates of the effects emigration

of emigration (reverse

causation, omitted

variables bias)

RELEVANCE OF THE INSTRUMENT ASSUMPTION

Instrument (Shocks x Port) has a causal effect on emigration (log)

emigration in 1864-1867 in municipality m of county c, in time t

single excluded instrument
the number of frost shocks in 1864–67 in municipality m of county c,
the proximity to the nearest emigration port
county fixed effects
vector of municipality characteristics before the mass emigration
error term for municipality m, county c, and year t





The effect of





emigration on citizens'





demand for political
METHODOLOGY





6
change

Aim to estimate the effect of emigration over the course

of Mass Migration on long-run political outcomes in 5

origin

municipalities

Second Stage

2

First Stage The effect of
1



emigration on citizens'


Instrument The effect of the demand for political



instrument on change

IV Frost Shocks x emigration

Proximity to emigration (independent variable)
OLS Solution exploit port

migration-related push

Issues: Biased factors prior to mass

estimates of the effects emigration

of emigration (reverse

causation, omitted

variables bias)

CAUSAL EFFECT OF EMIGRATION ON Y

political outcome in municipality m, county c, and year t

predicted emigration from the first stage equation
number of frost shocks in 1864-67 in municipality m of county c
proximity to the nearest emigration port
fixed effect for the 24 counties
vector of municipality characteristics before the mass emigration
error term for municipality m, county c, and year t
 REPLICATION

Figure 2 Figure 3 Table 1 Figure 4 Figure 5 Table 2 Figure 8

Emigration Flows Detrended Summary The spatial The frequency Balance Test Monotonicity
Swedish real GDP Statistics distribution of distribution of assumption
per capita for growing season frost shocks
1850–1900 frost shocks during 1864–67
during 1864–67
 REPLICATION

Table 3 Figure 9 Table 5 Table 6 Table 7 Table 10

First stage results Instrument against Effect of emigration Mobilization of Policy responses to Economic outcomes
emigration during on labor organization workers and electoral emigration
1867–1900 (the first outcomes
stage) and labor
movement
membership during
1900–1920 (the
)reduced form
TABLE 5: EFFECTS OF LOG EMIGRATION 1867-1900 ON THE
AVERAGE LABOR ORGANIZATION RATE 1900-1920
use "/Users/oibekaoi/Desktop/seminar public/jpe replication materials/data/use/analysis1.dta"
global ctrl_nourban larea arableshare1810 lproxport10 lproxtown lproxsthlm lproxrail lproxstnfrost latitude longitude barley_hi oats_hi wheat_hi dairy_hi forest1907_hi
global ctrl urban $ctrl_nourban
global balance lpop1865 $ctrl imr cmr mmr preemi_popgrowth
global int shockport10 shocktown
global p19 pop1918_1500
eststo: areg labor_capy0020 emi67t lpop1865 if year==1900, a(c_id) cluster(stnfrost)
estadd ysumm
eststo: areg labor_capy0020 emi67t lpop1865 $ctrl if year==1900, a(c_id) cluster(stnfrost)
estadd ysumm
eststo: areg labor_capy0020 emi67t lpop1865 $ctrl $int if year==1900, a(c_id) cluster(stnfrost)
estadd ysumm
eststo, add(fstat e(widstat)): xi: ivreg2 labor_capy0020 (emi67t=shockport) shock lproxemiport lpop1865 i.c_id if year==1900, partial(i.c_id) cluster(stnfrost)
estadd ysumm
eststo, add(fstat e(widstat)): xi: ivreg2 labor_capy0020 (emi67t=shockport) shock lproxemiport lpop1865 $ctrl i.c_id if year==1900, partial(i.c_id) cluster(stnfrost)
estadd ysumm
eststo, add(fstat e(widstat)): xi: ivreg2 labor_capy0020 (emi67t=shockport) shock lproxemiport lpop1865 $ctrl $int i.c_id if year==1900, partial(i.c_id) cluster(stnfrost)
estadd ysumm
esttab using "/Users/oibekaoi/Desktop/seminar public/table5.csv", keep(emi67t) varlabels(emi67t "Emigration 1867--1900") mlabels(none) prehead(TABLE 5:The Effect of
Emigrtion on Labor Organization) posthead(Dependent variable: Labor organization 1900--1920 OLS IV) indicate("County fixed effects = lpop1865" "Controls = $ctrl" "Shocks x
Market Access = $int") stats(N ymean fstat, fmt(0 2) labels("Observations" "Mean dep. var." "F-statistic")) postfoot (Note.- This table displays the effects of log emigration 1867–
1900 on the average labor organization rate 1900–1920. The excluded instrument is the interaction between the number of growing season frost shocks 1864–67 and
proximity to the nearest emigration port. Proximity is defined as minus the log of distance. All regressions include county fixed effects and control for the log of the population at
baseline. Additional control variables are growing season frost shocks 1864–67, proximity to the nearest emigration port, nearest town, nearest trade port, nearest weather
station, and Stockholm, log area, latitude, longitude, as well as an urban indicator and a set of indicators for high soil quality for the production of barley, oats, wheat, dairy, and
timber. Shocks market access includes the interaction between growing season frost shocks and proximity to the nearest town and trade port, respectively. The F-statistic
refers to the excluded instrument. Standard errors (in parentheses) are clustered at the weather station level.) $estoptions se (3) starlevels (* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01)
TABLE 6: THE EFFECT OF EMIGRATION ON THE MOBILIZATION OF WORKERS
AND ELECTORAL OUTCOMES
use "/Users/oibekaoi/Desktop/seminar public/jpe replication materials/data/use/analysis1.dta"
global ctrl_nourban larea arableshare1810 lproxport10 lproxtown lproxsthlm lproxrail lproxstnfrost latitude longitude barley_hi oats_hi wheat_hi dairy_hi forest1907_hi
global ctrl_nourban larea arableshare1810 lproxport10 lproxtown lproxsthlm lproxrail lproxstnfrost latitude longitude barley_hi oats_hi wheat_hi dairy_hi forest1907_hi
global ctrl urban $ctrl_nourban
global balance lpop1865 $ctrl imr cmr mmr preemi_popgrowth
global int shockport10 shocktown
global p19 pop1918_1500
eststo, add(fstat e(widstat)): xi: ivreg2 strikers_cap (emi67t = shockport) shock lproxemiport lpop1865 $ctrl $int i.c_id if year==1908, partial(i.c_id) cluster(stnfrost)
estadd ysumm
eststo, add(fstat e(widstat)): xi: ivreg2 st_unionshare (emi67t = shockport) shock lproxemiport lpop1865 $ctrl $int i.c_id if year==1908, partial(i.c_id) cluster(stnfrost)
estadd ysumm
eststo, add(fstat e(widstat)): xi: ivreg2 left1121 (emi67t = shockport) shock lproxemiport lpop1865 $ctrl $int i.c_id if year==1911, partial(i.c_id) cluster(stnfrost)
estadd ysumm
eststo, add(fstat e(widstat)): xi: ivreg2 turnout1121 (emi67t = shockport) shock lproxemiport lpop1865 $ctrl $int i.c_id if year==1911, partial(i.c_id) cluster(stnfrost)
estadd ysumm
eststo, add(fstat e(widstat)): xi: ivreg2 elig1121 (emi67t = shockport) shock lproxemiport lpop1865 $ctrl $int i.c_id if year==1911, partial(i.c_id) cluster(stnfrost)
estadd ysumm
eststo, add(fstat e(widstat)): xi: ivreg2 left_kmean (emi67t = shockport) shock lproxemiport lpop1865 $ctrl $int i.c_id if year==1945, partial(i.c_id) cluster(stnfrost)
estadd ysumm
eststo, add(fstat e(widstat)): xi: ivreg2 left_rmean (emi67t = shockport) shock lproxemiport lpop1865 $ctrl $int i.c_id if year==1945, partial(i.c_id) cluster(stnfrost)
estadd ysumm
esttab, keep(emi67t) mlabels(none) varlabels(emi67t "Emigration 1867--") prehead(TABLE 6: Mobilization of Workers and Electoral Outcomes: IV Regressions) posthead(Dependent variable: Strikers per Capita
Share Unionized Strikers Left-Wing Vote Share Turnout Eligible Voters Municipal Elections National Elections) indicate("County fixed effects = lpop1865" "Controls = $ctrl" "Shocks x Market Access = $int") stats(N
ymean fstat, fmt(0 2) labels("Observations" "Mean dep. var." "F-statistic")) postfoot (Note.- Col. 1 reports the effects of emigration on participation in the 1909 general strike. The dependent variable in col. 2 is the
share of strikers who were union members. Municipalities with no strikers are assigned a value of 0.5. The outcome in col. 3 is the average vote share of the Social Democratic and Socialist Parties, while cols. 4 and 5
use voter turnout and the share of eligible voters per capita, respectively. The outcomes in cols. 6 and 7 are the average vote share of the Social Democratic and Socialist Parties 1998– 2014 in municipal and national
elections. The excluded instrument in all models is the interaction between the number of growing season frost shocks 1864–67 and proximity to the nearest emigration port. Proximity is defined as minus the log of
distance. All regressions include county fixed effects and control for the log of the population at the baseline. Additional control variables are growing season frost shocks 1864–67, proximity to the nearest
emigration port, nearest town, nearest trade port, nearest weather station, and Stockholm, log area, latitude, longitude, as well as an urban indicator and a set of indicators for high soil quality for the production of
barley, oats, wheat, dairy, and timber. Shocks market access includes the interaction between growing season frost shocks and proximity to the nearest town and trade port, respectively. The F-statistic refers to the
excluded instrument. Standard errors (in parentheses) are clustered at the weather station level.) se (3) starlevels (* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01)
FIGURE 9: THE INSTRUMENT AGAINST EMIGRATION DURING 1867-
1900 AND LABOR MOVEMENT MEMBERSHIP DURING 1900-1920

use "/Users/oibekaoi/Desktop/seminar public/jpe replication materials/data/use/analysis1.dta", clear

twoway (lpoly em_res sp_res, bwidth(1) lwidth(0.5) lcolor(black)) (lpoly lab_res sp_res, bwidth(1) yaxis(2)
lpattern(dash) lwidth(0.5) lcolor(black)) if year==1900, note("Fig. 9.—Nonparametric reduced-form relationships.
Local mean smooth. Bandwidth: 1.This""figure nonparametrically displays the first-stage relationship, as well as the
reducedform effect""of the instrument on the average labor organization rate for 1900–1920. The instrument is the
interaction""between the number of growing season frost shocks for 1864–67 and proximity to the
nearest""emigration port. Proximity is defined as minus the log of distance.All variables have been residualized""using
the following covariates: county fixed effects, the log of the population at baseline, log area, latitude,""longitude,
proximity to the nearest emigration port, nearest town, nearest trade port, nearest weather station,""and Stockholm,
the number of growing season frost shocks in 1864–67, the interaction between growing""season frost shocks and
proximity to the nearest town and trade port, as well as an urban indicator""and a set of indicators for high soil quality
for the production of barley, oats, wheat, dairy,and timber.""Sixteen observations that have IV residual values above 5
have been top coded at 5 to reduce noise.", size (2.5)) ytitle("Emigration 1867-1900") ytitle("Labor organization 1900-
1920", axis(2)) ylabel(,labgap(1)) xtitle("Frost shocks x Proximity to Port") xlabel(,labgap(1)) legend(off) text(0.08 1
"Emigration" -0.085 3.5 "Labor organization", size(small)) scheme(s1mono)plotregion(lwidth(none))
TABLE 7: POLICY RESPONSES TO EMIGRATION
use "/Users/oibekaoi/Desktop/seminar public/jpe replication materials/data/use/analysis1.dta",
global ctrl_nourban larea arableshare1810 lproxport10 lproxtown lproxsthlm lproxrail lproxstnfrost latitude longitude barley_hi oats_hi wheat_hi dairy_hi
forest1907_hi
global ctrl_nourban larea arableshare1810 lproxport10 lproxtown lproxsthlm lproxrail lproxstnfrost latitude longitude barley_hi oats_hi wheat_hi dairy_hi
forest1907_hi
global ctrl urban $ctrl_nourban
global balance lpop1865 $ctrl imr cmr mmr preemi_popgrowth
global int shockport10 shocktown
global p19 pop1918_1500
***We generated $p38 because could not find it anywhere for column 4
global p38 pop1937_1500
eststo, add(fstat e(widstat)): xi: ivreg2 poorexp1918_cap (emi67t=shockport) shock lproxemiport lpop1865 $ctrl_nourban $int i.c_id if year==1917,
partial(i.c_id) cluster(stnfrost)
estadd ysumm
eststo, add(fstat e(widstat)): xi: ivreg2 poorexp1919_cap (emi67t=shockport) shock lproxemiport lpop1865 $p19 $ctrl_nourban $int i.c_id if year==1918,
partial(i.c_id) cluster(stnfrost)
estadd ysumm
eststo, add(fstat e(widstat)): xi: ivreg2 d19 (emi67t=shockport) shock lproxemiport lpop1865 $ctrl_nourban $int $p19 i.c_id if year==1918, partial(i.c_id)
cluster(stnfrost)
estadd ysumm
eststo, add(fstat e(widstat)): xi: ivreg2 d38 (emi67t=shockport) shock lproxemiport lpop1865 $ctrl_nourban $int $p38 i.c_id if year==1937, partial(i.c_id)
cluster(stnfrost)
estadd ysumm
esttab using "/Users/oibekaoi/Desktop/seminar public/table7.csv", keep(emi67t) mlabels(none) varlabels(emi67t "Emigration 1867--") prehead (TABLE 7:
Policy Responses to Emigration: IV Regressions) posthead(Dependent variable:Expenditures per capita (1918 1919) Representative democracy (1919 1938))
indicate("County fixed effects = lpop1865" "Controls = $ctrl_nourban" "Shocks x Market Access = $int") stats(N ymean fstat, fmt(0 2) labels("Observations"
"Mean dep. var." "F-statistic")) postfoot (Note- This table displays the effects of emigration on per capita welfare expenditures in 1918 and 1919, as well as on the
voluntary adoption of representative democracy by 1919 and by 1938. The excluded instrument is the interaction between the number of growing season frost
shocks 1864-67 and proximity to the nearest emigration port. Proximity is defined as minus the lo of distance. All regressions include county fixed effects and
control for the log of the population at baseline. Additional control variables are growing season frost shocks 1864-67, proximity to the nearest emigration port,
nearest town, nearest trade port, nearest weather station, and Stockholm, log area, latitude, longitude, as well as a set of indicators for high soil quality for the
production of barley, oats, wheat, dairy, and timber. Shocks market access includes the interaction between growing season frost shocks and proximity to the
nearest town and trade port,respectively. Cols. 3 and 4 include a set of dummy variables taking the value of one if the municipal population was 1 500 or higher
in 1918 (col. 3) or in each year 1918-37 (col. 4). The F-statistic refers to the excluded instrument. Standard errors (in parentheses) are clustered at the weather
station level.) $estoptions se (3) starlevels (* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01)
*** Column 4 has slightly different results than in the paper due to generated variable "p38".
 TABLE 10: ECONOMIC OUTCOMES
use "/Users/oibekaoi/Desktop/seminar public/jpe replication materials/data/use/analysis1.dta",
global ctrl_nourban larea arableshare1810 lproxport10 lproxtown lproxsthlm lproxrail lproxstnfrost latitude longitude barley_hi oats_hi wheat_hi dairy_hi forest1907_hi
global ctrl_nourban larea arableshare1810 lproxport10 lproxtown lproxsthlm lproxrail lproxstnfrost latitude longitude barley_hi oats_hi wheat_hi dairy_hi forest1907_hi
global ctrl urban $ctrl_nourban
global balance lpop1865 $ctrl imr cmr mmr preemi_popgrowth
global int shockport10 shocktown
global p19 pop1918_1500
eststo, add(fstat e(widstat)): xi: ivreg2 horses_perarea (emi67t=shockport) shock lproxemiport lpop1865 $ctrl $int i.c_id if year==1910, partial(i.c_id) cluster(stnfrost)
estadd ysumm
eststo, add(fstat e(widstat)): xi: ivreg2 lfarming_sum (emi67t=shockport) shock lproxemiport lpop1865 $ctrl $int i.c_id if year==1910, partial(i.c_id) cluster(stnfrost)
estadd ysumm
eststo, add(fstat e(widstat)): xi: ivreg2 lproduction_sum (emi67t=shockport) shock lproxemiport lpop1865 $ctrl $int i.c_id if year==1910, partial(i.c_id) cluster(stnfrost)
estadd ysumm
eststo, add(fstat e(widstat)): xi: ivreg2 anyfirm (emi67t=shockport) shock lproxemiport lpop1865 $ctrl $int i.c_id if year==1910, partial(i.c_id) cluster(stnfrost)
estadd ysumm
eststo, add(fstat e(widstat)): xi: ivreg2 labor_prod (emi67t=shockport) shock lproxemiport lpop1865 $ctrl $int i.c_id if year==1910, partial(i.c_id) cluster(stnfrost)
estadd ysumm
eststo, add(fstat e(widstat)): xi: ivreg2 strikers_prod (emi67t=shockport) shock lproxemiport lpop1865 $ctrl $int i.c_id if year==1910, partial(i.c_id) cluster(stnfrost)
estadd ysumm
esttab using "/Users/oibekaoi/Desktop/seminar public/table10.csv", keep(emi67t) mlabels(none) varlabels(emi67t "Emigration 1867--") prehead(TABLE 10: Economic Outcomes:
IV Regressions) posthead(Dependent variable: Horses per Area Farm Workers Industrial Workers Any Firm Labor org. per Ind. Worker Strikes per Ind. Worker) indicate("County
fixed effects = lpop1865" "Controls = $ctrl" "Shocks x Market Access = $int") stats(N fstat ymean, fmt(0 2 2) labels("Observations" "F-statistic" "Mean dep. var.")) postfoot (Note-
Horses per area is the number of horses per area in 1910. Farm workers and industrial workers are measured in logs in 1910. Any firm is an indicator variable equal to one if there is a
corporation in 1900–1920. Labor organization per industrial worker and strikers per industrial worker are the number of labor movement and strike participants per industrial
worker in 1910, respectively. The excluded instrument is the interaction between the number of growing season frost shocks 1864–67 and proximity to the nearest emigration port.
Proximity is defined as minus the log of distance. All regressions include county fixed effects and control for the log of the population at the baseline. Additional control variables are
growing season frost shocks 1864–67, proximity to the nearest emigration port, nearest town, nearest trade port, nearest weather station, and Stockholm, log area, latitude,
longitude, as well as an urban indicator and a set of indicators for high soil quality for the production of barley, oats, wheat, dairy, and timber. Shocks market access includes the
interaction between growing season frost shocks and proximity to the nearest town and trade port, respectively. The F-statistic refers to the excluded instrument. Standard errors
(in parentheses) are clustered at the weather station level.) se (3) starlevels (* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01)





The effect of





emigration on citizens'





demand for political
METHODOLOGY





6
change

Aim to estimate the effect of emigration over the course

of Mass Migration on long-run political outcomes in 5

origin

municipalities

Mechanisms

Second Stage Through which

2



channels emigration



First Stage The effect of might have affected
1



emigration on citizens' political outcomes in
Sweden


Instrument The effect of the demand for political



instrument on change

IV Frost Shocks x emigration

Proximity to emigration (independent variable)
OLS Solution exploit port

migration-related push

Issues: Biased factors prior to mass

estimates of the effects emigration

of emigration (reverse

causation, omitted

variables bias)

POTENTIAL EXPLANATIONS

Outside Options:
Higher living standards in the US and the possibility to migrate there enabled workers to take
higher risks, such as joining labor unions

Local Economic Responses

Population decline affected labor relations and wages --> upswing labor movement

Selection into Migration

Change in the composition of the origin community population over time

Exposure to American Attitudes

Existing literature: host country attitudes transmit to origin countries. Possibly, via return
migration or information transmission through networks
Table 10 in replication part
DISCUSSION

Exclusion restriction assumption:

Minor effects of (frost shocks)x(market access) on main outcomes
(frost shocks) x (trade port proximity): statistically significant and negative
coefficients for 3 main outcomes, including labor organization <-- bias estimates
toward zero
Sensitivity analysis: Even after calculating the largest exclusion restriction violation
that can be assumed, the method yields significant positive effect of emigration on
labor organization rate in 1900-1920
DISCUSSION

How externally valid are the results?

Do findings generalize to other
countries with high emigration rates
during the Age of Mass Migration?
DISCUSSION

How externally valid are

the results?
Do findings have any
bearing on current
emigration waves and
record global refugee
stocks?