To: Interested Parties

From: Global Strategy Group

Date: August 15, 2023
Re: Path to Victory for Debbie Mucarsel-Powell in Florida’s 2024 U.S. Senate Race

New research conducted by Global Strategy Group finds that Rick Scott is a uniquely weak incumbent.
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is very well-positioned to take him on next year, particularly if turnout is
consistent with where it historically has been in Florida presidential elections.

Key Findings
Rick Scott’s personal image has declined and is now underwater. Scott’s image is net-negative, with
48% of voters viewing him unfavorably and only 40% viewing him favorably. Among key voters who are
not registered with either major party, he’s underwater by a net 16 points (48% unfavorable, 32%
favorable). This represents a substantial drop from two years ago, when his image was level at 46%
favorable, 46% unfavorable. It’s also significantly weaker than Marco Rubio was at this point last cycle
(47% favorable, 46% unfavorable).

Moreover, Scott has lost the trust of Floridians across a host of issues and personal traits. Voters
don’t trust Scott to handle several important issues, including housing and property insurance (48%
don’t trust, 33% trust); Social Security and Medicare (48% don’t trust, 36% trust); and the cost of living
(48% don’t trust, 36% trust). They also don’t trust him to be honest and ethical (48% don’t trust, 37%
trust) nor to do the right thing (45% don’t trust, 37% trust).

Debbie Mucarsel-Powell’s profile is highly appealing to Florida voters across party lines. Mucarsel-
Powell’s profile is rated as appealing by 70% of voters statewide, compared to only 61% who say the
same for Scott’s bio. Among unaffiliated voters, 68% find Mucarsel-Powell’s bio appealing (39% very
appealing), while 59% find Scott’s bio appealing (30% very appealing). Her profile also is significantly
more appealing among the state’s Latino voters (79% total appealing/61% very appealing for Mucarsel-
Powell; 62% total appealing/45% very appealing for Scott). Moreover, more than half (54%) of
Republicans say that Mucarsel-Powell’s background and accomplishments appeal to them.

Back-and-forth communication ends in a lead for Mucarsel-Powell in multiple turnout scenarios.

After voters hear positive profiles of both candidates as well as attacks on both candidates, Mucarsel-
Powell leads Scott, 44% to 43%. In addition to making gains with Democrats and Republicans, there is
substantial movement in her direction among the unaffiliated voters critical to victory, who move from
supporting Scott by 7 points to supporting Mucarsel-Powell by 16 points. Notably, those numbers
reflect an electorate that leans Republican by seven points in terms of party registration – which, if it
came to pass, would be the most Republican-leaning presidential-year electorate in recent history.
Under a scenario in which turnout reverts back to where it was in 2020 and 2016, as is likely, Mucarsel-
Powell ends the poll with a 4-point lead (47% to 43%).
Negatives against Scott, particularly about his disastrous tax plan, are highly concerning. The more
that voters learn about Scott, the less they like him. A large majority of voters express concerns about
his tax plan – which not only defunds jobs and hits taxpayers directly, but undercuts Scott on taxes,
which conventional wisdom says should be a strength for Republicans. Scott’s plan to put Medicare
and Social Security at risk and his personal history of fraud also prove very worrisome:

ABOUT THE POLL

Global Strategy Group conducted a survey of 1,000 likely 2024 general election voters in Florida between July 5 and 10, 2023, via
phone and text-to-web interviews. The survey has a margin of error of +/-3.1%. Care has been taken to ensure the geographic,
political, and demographic divisions of the population of general election voters are properly represented.