Demand Forecasting! -. Demand Forecast(na 's a CombingH'on of two words: the Hrgtonre tke Bamand and another Forecast’: Demand means outetae requsre roent of a produrt or Larue In generaQ , forecosting means mealing an et'matiom in he present For qa Future Our NY Qwene' lt le Q fachnique for eah'mat'on oF Probabkie demand For & pProdut oe deculce ta thea preserot prorntmer fudure: [his hae on Me ana (ya ts OF Pat demand For trat product or Ceruree On the prea “ont macket condi\n'on: Demand) Forelore'ng Choutd ba clone ong CrlenHA'e boast and fash ong lemenks relase& bo forecartitn gy banould be tonardered s | TA2crefore, I's Lire ple words, use | COM Cary Hat abtear g athaw | vanious (Nfo aboUk V O/0Us Srpe of Tha mereet anck hommond boss on the Pat, an attem et mo4 be | moda bo estlmate Future lemond WT is Contept 1h comed Foreory yeh,| | | lin the word of "CumdlFF and geul “Demand fore casting ts an estimate of Lales dun'ing a tpectt'edl Future pero d baed om propoied morkeby plan anda get oF par Hector Urn Contro LLabte anrdetump crue forces" Demand for ctast’ng enables On organization to tear vu OT'OUs busto eu cleete (ons, Cush as plom antag he produchion pro te» » pucenosiag rad mraden! aQs , mane -g tng fun pand deu'chidng the ergs of We pro heck - Po Cory! Con Foretost demand by main an esrrmcke catheadk gyUeas egrirnds oc toustag He hale “oF Lee trred tonsatkanty oc mar Kee £reseeorcly oq enceres: rages to foracamn olemandll- (we fCpeaih'cat'on oF Obyecktuey yw lelechion oF appropiate fealnnr qd urs #F lol akon of aperoprotre oho-bay + Est’mrmatlon ond Interpreboroo oe resrhds’ yw Evatuck'on of the Forecorn'| | | ‘Cevebs oF forecasting jr Demand poy echong mo rok be Cenk pee Cont correct famurate, more Lo when the «cope of deme? foratovr ts totole. DreFerent leoeks of demand Fore- torte moy ba attemeted by buiney Firms: Nirero Leu ekt- fore tasting Graumrued to a Pact culeor brand or gpelhlc product (Nae the demand for | On! ha mrcrousane ouen or rnacubl) Corg: tdecon (eueds- RB Fire attempts to projeeck the clemond for Q Proolst 9 ro up taal tne olernongk for U9 cating Taek y | rae leued te | cohen a Aero atten wb to examine the Fture demend for ath autoe Mobily or FUpet rather thon len 2 demand for O Dor H’cedor bron Gl) Home on product TOP ptr vw Anos @& Morro leh oF betes) lof demo As(Methods oF demand Fore costing tn ( Guaaitatiwve taethodu!- | Tee methods Fely enent'aly on [tne Gudyemant of eeperts to tron [Lote Guotttatue tn formation taro {UGH H baotwe eatimnatey: WR Compt quot! botvr me tho ob Ore te FIErY OF exerutiue mekhool!- Rroethod of Fore tasting Latn & COMPOLItR Forecast Prepere A MuMber CF INacllirod experd We exeecth Form theta ouon oerntons ini Hatt Pron the cLo4g | gy fuen pond reste Hetr ce! atom bateor cling to the others oetaronys | Roaty , Pre Indtuldual Linod JOPTATORNS OFA Comb ned, w® Delphi Method!- [THe oletp hi method & a foretown POCO" frammewoene baed on ny Tons 6 f munnpIe pounds of | qURIVO NNares LENE bo a Pooek | oF euperis: WR KEM rest ty Meoneto | bea MEX conlensw of udrhat the | TOU TAY - | - ~TWme er'es Profechion m-tro Sl TMHae method generate fore cats 60 the borts pnb an Onatyat's of ithe histon'ca® Home Lemies. Me Peapt Hime Lenies projechion Metred orete ¥ (ond Profech'on metho de WO method & bhaged on Anatats OF Poet fates. B Alem tohtth has emtstenee For quite long time voltl Kore oeeumelated tomichenrcbe ot a Feg er cling fakes for an ot y core: Sus Thoka & arrange Chronologreoty corr Cn tery ag oF FiMmMR: Havre Ore two (met method} — & leaxt ¢q wore mm etrod' O© metro & of Mourns Qr.0% of 2A+ ‘Dleot £Quore methodt- TH Hand i oumed® bo be Linear » He equat'’on For + Une O Ys atx tohevre Sd i te Inrersente wf B Crows MH impart of indivota, LOAD AR dhepenclene on Vor'odng WE Ginnie gare u Lott Hm pertods wohich ust b& vadepenQ remlotsre x. | |Tuy, Vi fo ter ceet and the slope of Une are formed by mae thy Qepro- prvate Laubsatitturtons (nh Ho 2 Fo Wougtay Nornna® aguah'onst- © EY Sat hex +---O "EXY 2 aeK + bax. 2 --- @) NYeac | cates Y) x | x* | xy | (aah | 4s \ ( Ag aay, 2 RY 104 Lace) ae | 9 a Vay LAAT GS re [4G jaae 2000, 60 | Ss | | | a | 300 N=5 | 4¥= 280 4x=15 [ex*sSS sexys 83 Q2LOFGSaA t 156 Hiss Saqgcsh solutag both 4-22 Coo Ge h233 AbOr So 41S QAQOFLQ ANUS Beda] So, YR uratt 33x WTAE HRT F 93CVY A USY Nt er 4dQ + 23D Ugry Y rath? UQd E33 CPS Met AUTe UAL £33 CY) * SER Y 2000 F YA $3°3 CE) a SHG! y aod) +» URE tS +3 CEO 614 C Based on TAR trenol Prodeendg | eq uat's oy)> Method of mov reg QUGE Gaal THs method & 'nadequate for pradichion coh enenor tare Or @ turnin potnk ty the trend tke SUFs Kole ere g uLor Facto wy Sush a4 storms and chrrK“es CAO be averaged wut and tontaned tAto the equah'on th ty oleatrable to nod how Uatrrolgte Such ar ew arcure could be. eee are the annucd Lure of dceecteay dunes Heap period of 1%43 ~2003 » We Kave bo Mad out tr ond of Khe cote eroct raouiny a oS 2 user oy Mmavwy any * 24 eo¢ POU’ Any to athrc/3, &t ted (3, ctatels, Atet eB cre STH Gatre of 10434 ATH HAVE |B . (QF IS FLY [s » Ufg =18°T|S eos Bi eer Wags | Stes [RSG in fer ven Latt 15 at a1 1s > 187 Laas) iy as Us]a +S rage 6 us uels sit Laay 18 S\ . 14984 24 se LQaq 1a A 5Y/3 21 R000 20 el 6/3 = $81 Q2OO!, .2@v 61 ath S202 2002 25 cia Use 23-7: 200% 24 _ Exponant'o® Smooth (ng 09 HNO ol! LE USED Q Weeyried Bueraye of Post clata oo the both For aforer toutes THR Procedure glu hRavier vo cdot to more recent infor mMatten ond Crratier wasnt to okoeru0m (io the more d&itant porwr: Me peavon for thiy te Mak M2 Future ds more Aaepanrkent on Me resent pave then on the 0% font por’ | | _ 7 pe COs |[Peron d C000) jz | au la07 ee we « ee | ly | Vo 3 q ase f 8B A tow on —ESS — a fe o| bo tnds, Neonadors ore mOodeeed Wy | tne light of obserued errors .1f the | for2etovt Vatue for yeort, &, ley tron re Uietre for tne yas & So He fore core for the ges Aly Fear ris fee Weyher thon Rr tf FPL FET loloer 9 F,. tn gen, Petre Fe hate: | beph® Focecert for Yor EF | A = Cmreothing Pe-arneter (0-1) a sere Ww Fore vovt ror year Er Se -k&-B) causas Methodal- More analy t’eaQ tron the preted method, C1402 methods cea to ot eueblo pe foretats on the bats OF Cawse OFF ect Fekalongnt ps spectered fn 00 ROPUNEE Hp CLYUQLON! tebe Manners Me (met castuta® metrog arele S Chath Ratio taethodki- Tre chan rar io method of deme predichon (kk Not aq Comoelere tya- -tem of demand preoltth'on for Your Pro hunk - Lt tow ony ere Os an Ror boats for Further ebotl TAE™ G ee to re Faeck trot tt loos not ta Uude Vor'atse Lach a leks PARAS aa (Osu, mor BUA 7 C42 0 > Consume ton level WAeinodl !- Consumpnoy (au. metrod 14 wseful for a produkt olrecky Lon- Htumed » TA method estimates corsumepr'on tevel on the bors BF hasttarry CockFtal ems 4 ne tmypt ore bailing tre [ntome above | oe chomoan ond the janie @ choy Hey oF demonrok +DEndD use method- CE G aA Method cohich ts used to know the buyers We consumption of tne rl acetal K's Fucbure buy vyirg plans and tlhkey Whe Marker chore of he loro ay COU -e av end wie method CMe we inten Hons of He buyers ark toalaen Mnto the considhevat'on tAks Metnod ts abo calied tne “ furvey of Bye t(akenhior D Ceadting Mnal(cator Methodt- | ceadtiag Yeronomi'c t(andécatorm ee used t& fore cet charges be tmore ne ~erxr of the RLOKOS b ag bo move teria partiastor cl! olen and hKerle marnarnt observers of eo icy Moal4szery preaklce ( Candtearg | UnRaonyg as in te ener | DCconometne prorthod !- Economrt’e & the use of Lom metrody Githy Guadk tele dota | to d euelop freon'es or heat | | aang hy pothests tn eo romies lor KVaoegs |