Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres - 1999 - Hansen

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 104, NO.
D24, PAGES 30,997-31,022, DECEMBER 27, 1999
GISS analysisof surface temperature change

J. Hansen,R. Ruedy,J. Glascoe,andM. Sato
NASA GoddardInstitutefor SpaceStudies,New York
Abstract. We describe thecurrentGISSanalysis of surfacetemperature changefor theperiod

1880-1999basedprimarilyon meteorological stationmeasurements. The globalsurface
temperature in 1998wasthewarmestin theperiodof instrumental data. Therateof temperature
changewashigherin thepast25 yearsthanat anyprevioustimein theperiodof instrumental data.
The warmthof 1998 wastoo largeandpervasiveto be fully accounted for by therecentE1Nino.
Despitecoolingin thefirsthalf of 1999,we suggest thatthemeanglobaltemperature, averaged
over2-3 years,hasmovedto a higherlevel,analogous to theincreasethatoccurredin thelate
1970s. Warmingin the UnitedStatesoverthepast50 yearshasbeensmallerthanin mostof the
world,andoverthatperiodtherewasa slightcoolingtrendin theeasternUnitedStatesandthe
neighboring AtlanticOcean.The spatialandtemporalpatterns of thetemperature changesuggest
thatmorethanonemechanism wasinvolvedin thisregionalcooling.Thecoolingtrendin the
UnitedStates,whichbeganafterthe 1930sandis associated withoceantemperature change
patterns,beganto reverseafter 1979. We suggest thatfurtherwarmingin theUnitedStatesto a
levelrivalingthe 1930sis likelyin thenextdecade,butreliableprediction requiresbetter
understanding of decadaloscillationsof oceantemperature.
1. Introduction resultingnear-globaltemperaturechangeof the pastcentury,and

comparethis with the temperaturechangein the United States.
Surfaceair temperature
change is a primarymeasure of global Finally,we presentexamplesof dataproductsthatareavailablefrom
climatechange. Studiesof temperature changeover land areas
our web site(www.giss.nasa.gov).
basedon measurements of the meteorological
stationnetworkare
routinelymadeby groupsat theUniversityof EastAnglia(UEA)
[Joneset al., 1982;Jones,1995],theGoddardInstitutefor Space 2. Source Data
Studies(GISS)[Hansenet al., 1981;HansenandLebedeff,1987],
The sourceof monthlymeanstationtemperatures for our present
and the NationalClimaticData Center (NCDC) [Petersonet al.,
analysisis the Global HistoricalClimatologyNetwork (GHCN)
1998b;Quayleet al., 1999]. Thesestudies
areupdated frequently
version2 of Petersonand Vose[ 1997]. Thisis a compilationof 31
because
of currentinterestin globalwarmingandthepossibility
of
data sets,which includedata from more than 7200 independent
humaninfluenceon climate[IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate
stations.One of the 31 datasets,the MonthlyClimaticData of the
Change(IPCC), 1996]. Analysisby severalindependent groups World (MCDW) with about2200 stations,was the data sourceused
provides
a usefulcheck,because
of theirdifferent
waysof handling in theanalysis
of HansenandLebedeff[1987]. The GHCN version
dataproblemssuchasincomplete spatialandtemporalcoverage,
2 data set has many meritsfor researchapplications,including
urban influenceson the station environment,and other factors
provision of useful metadata such as population and ready
affectingdataquality[Karl et al., 1989].
availability
to researchers,
asdescribed
by Petersonand Vose[ 1997]
Our purposeis to update and documentthe current GISS
andPetersonet al. [1998c]. When we applyour "data-cleaning"
analysis,which has evolved substantially
since the previous
programsto thisGHCN dataset,we f'mdit to be unusuallyfree of
documentation by Hansen and Lebedeff [1987], hereinafter
' obviousproblems,as discussedin section3 below. We use the
abbreviatedas HL87. Our analysisconcernsprimarily
versionof theGHCN withouthomogeneity adjustment,
aswe carry
meteorologicalstationmeasurements
over land areas,as was the
out our own adjustmentdescribedbelow.
casewithHL87. However,we alsoillustrateresultsfor a global
Measurementsat many meteorologicalstationsare includedin
surfacetemperature indexformedby combining our landanalysis more than one of the 31 GHCN data sets, with the recorded
withseasurface temperaturedataof Reynolds
andSmith[ 1994]and
temperatures in somecasesdifferingin valueor recordlength.Our
Smithet al. [1996], as describedby Hansenet al. [1996]. It is
first stepwas thusto estimatea singletime seriesof temperature
useful to estimateglobal temperaturechangefrom both the
changefor eachlocation,asdescribed in section4. The cumulative
meteorological stationdata alone, and the combinedanalysis,
distribution
of theresultingstationrecordlengthsis givenin Figure
because the land and ocean data have their own measurement
characteristics and uncertainties.
la, andthenumberof stationsat a giventimeis shownin Figurelb.
Analysesof global temperaturechangebasedon instrumental
We firstdescribethe sourceof our raw data,our dataquality
measurements arelimitedpriorto thetwentiethcenturyby the sparse
controls,andan optionaladjustmentfor estimating
urbaneffectson
global distributionof measurements.The area representedby
localdata. We describe
themethodfor combining stationrecordsto
observations is addressedin Figurelc. It wasshownby HL87 that
obtainregionalandnear-globaltemperaturechange,illustratethe
monthlytemperatureanomalies(the deviationfrom climatology,
whichis thelong-termmean)at a givenstationarehighlycorrelated
Thispaperisnotsubject
to U.S.copyright.Published
in 1999
with anomalies of neighboringstationsto distancesasgreatasabout
by theAmericanGeophysicalUnion. 1200 km, with the correlations for nearbystationsbeingbetterat
PaperNumber1999JD900835. middleandhighlatitudesthanin the tropics. Using 1200km asthe
30,997
21562202d, 1999, D24, Downloaded from https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/1999JD900835 by Cochrane Romania, Wiley Online Library on [18/08/2023]. See the Terms and Conditions (https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions) on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License
30,998 HANSEN ET AL.: GISS ANALYSIS OF SURFACE TEMPE•T• CHANGE
•'7 lOO !
Number of Stations
8O
Coverag•-
• 60
' 20
,.," • Northern
Hemisphere
__., -- - SouthernHemisphere
Z0 ............
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 19'00'' 19'50 2000 0 ' ' ' 19100
.... 19'50
.... 2000
RecordLength(years) (a) Year (b) Year (c)
Figure 1. (a) Numberof stationswith recordlengthn yearsor longer,(b) numberof stationswith definedannual
temperatureanomalyasa functionof time,and(c) percentof hemispheric
arealocatedwithin1200km of a station.
distance
to whicha stationis representative,Figurel c showsthat [Hansenet al., 1996] we normallyuseSST dataof Reynoldsand
50% areacoveragein the NorthernHemisphere wasobtainedby Smith [1994] and Smith et al. [1996]. However, for the sake of
about 1880 and at the sametime, coveragein the Southern obtainingan indicationof uncertainties,
we alsotestthe effectof
Hemispherejumpedfrom lessthan 10% to more than 20%. The instead employing the GISST (global ice and sea surface
coveragesubsequentto 1880is sufficient
to yieldusefulestimates
of temperature)data[Parkeret al., 1995;Rayneret al., 1996]for the
annualglobaltemperature(with an error of the order of 0.1øC), as SST componentof the temperature index.
shownby quantitativetestsof the errordueto incomplete spatial
samplingusingeitherclimatemodelsor empiricaldatato specify
3. Data Quality Control
spatial-temporal
variability[HL87; Karl et al., 1994;Joneset al.,
1997a]. The errorbarsthat we includein our globaltemperature Data collectedand recordedby thousandsof individualswith
curvebelowaccount(only)for thisincomplete spatialsampling. equipmentand procedures subjectto changeover time inevitably
Note the recent decline of the number of stations and area containsmanyerrorsand inconsistencies, someof which will be
coveredby the stations(Figure 1). First, there has been a real impossibleto identifyandcorrect. The issueis whetherthe errors
reductionsincethe 1960sin the numberof stationsmakingand are so large that their effect on the temperatureanalysisis
reportingmeasurements.Second,updatesof the GHCN data comparable to theclimatechangethatwe areattempting to measure.
coveringthemostrecentseveralyearsincludeonlythreecomponent It tumsout,astheglobalmapsof temperature changeillustrate,that
data sets[Petersonand Vose,1997]: (1) up to about 1500 of the the analyzedtemperaturechangesgenerallyhavea clearphysical
globalMCDW stationsthat report monthlydata over the Global basisassociated with large-scaleclimatological pattems,and the
Telecommunications Systemor mail reportsto NCDC, (2) up to greatestchangesoccurin remotelocationswhereeffectsof local
about1200UnitedStatesHistoricalClimatologyNetworkstations, humaninfluenceare minimal. This suggests that the influenceof
which are mostlyrural; (3) up to about 370 U.S. First Order errorsis not dominant,perhapsbecausemany of the errors in
stations,whicharemostlyairportstationsin the UnitedStatesand recordingtemperatureare randomin nature. Nevertheless,it is
U.S. territoriesin the PacificOcean. Third, the updatefor the final importantto examinedataqualityto try to minimizelocalerrorsand
(current)yearis basedmainlyon MCDW stations.Samplingstudies to obtainanindication of thenatureandmagnitude of anyartificial
discussed below indicate that the decline in number of stations is sourcesof temperaturechange.
unimportantin regionsof densecoverage,althoughthe estimated The GHCN data haveundergoneextensivequalitycontrol,as
globaltemperaturechangecanbe affectedby a few hundredths of a describedby Petersonet al. [1998c]. In their data cleaning
degree.The effectof poorcoverageon estimated regionalandzonal procedurethey nominallyexcludeindividualstationmonths(i.e.,
temperatures can be largein specificareas,suchas highlatitudesin monthlymeantemperatures at a givenstation)that differby more
the SouthernHemisphere,as illustratedin section4. thanfive standard deviations (50) fromthelong-termmeanfor that
We limit our studyprimarilyto theperiodsince1880,becauseof stationmonth. This proceduremayexcludevaliddatapoints,but
the poor spatialcoverageof stationsprior to that time and the thenumberis sosmallin a physically plausible
distributionthatsuch
reducedpossibilityof checkingrecordsagainstthose of nearby deletionshavelittleeffecton the averagelong-termglobalchange.
neighbors.Meteorologicalstationdataprovidea usefulindication Theyalsoexaminethosestationmonthsthatdifferfrom the long-
of temperaturechangein the NorthernHemisphereextratropicsfor term mean by between 2.50 and 50, retainingthose that are
a few decadespriorto 1880,andthereare a smallnumberof station consistentwith nearestneighborstations,andtheyperformseveral
recordsthat extendback to previouscenturies. However, we otherqualitychecksthat are described by Petersonet al. [ 1998c].
believethat analyses for the earlieryearsneedto be carriedout on Our analysisprogramsthat ingestGHCN data include data
a stationby stationbasiswith an attemptto discernthe methodand quality checksthat were developedfor our earlier analysisof
reliabilityof measurements at eachstation,a taskbeyondthescope MCDW data. Retentionof our ownqualitycontrolchecksis useful
of our presentanalysis.Globalstudiesof the earliertimesdepend to guardagainstinadvertent errorsin datatransferandprocessing,
uponincorporation of proxymeasures of temperaturechange.We verificationof any addednear-real-time data, and testingof that
referthereaderto studiesof Mann et al. [ 1998, 1999],Hughesand portionof the GHCN data(specifically the UnitedStatesHistorical
Diaz [1994], Bradley and Jones[1993] and Jonesand Bradley Climatology Networkdata)thatwasnotscreened byPetersonet al.
[1992] and referencestherein. [ 1998c].
When we combinesurfaceair temperatures over land with sea A first qualitycheckwas to flag all monthlydata that differed
surfacetemperatures
(SSTs) to form a globaltemperatureindex morethanfivestandard deviations(5o) fromthelong-termmeanfor
HANSEN ET AL.: GISS ANALYSIS OF SURFACE TEMPE•T• CHANGE 30,999
that month,unlessone of the nearestfive neighboringstationshad

an anomalyof the samesignfor the samemonththat was at least
half as large. Data were also flaggedf the record had a jump
discontinuity,specificallyf the meansfor two 10 year periods
differedby morethan30. A thirdflagwasdesigned to catchclumps
of bad datathat occasionally occur,usuallyat the beginningof a
record;specifically,
a stationrecordwasflaggedf it contained10 or
more monthswithin a 20 year periodthat differedfrom the long- T
term meanby morethan30.
All flagged data were graphically displayed along with
neighboringstationsthat containeddata during the period in
question,and a subjectivedecisionwas made as to whetherthe
apparentdiscontinuity wasflaweddataor a potentiallyrealclimate
anomaly. The philosophywas that f the data were not quite
obviouslyflawed,it wasretained.Only a very smallportionof the
originaldata was deleted:approximately20 stationrecordswere t
deletedentirely,in approximately90 casesthe early part of the Figure 2. Illustration of how two temperaturerecords are
recordwas deleted,in five casesa segmentof 2-10 years was combined. The bias bT between the two records is the difference
deletedfrom the record,and approximately 20 individualstation betweentheir averagesover the commonperiod of data. The
months were deleted. secondrecordis shiftedverticallyby bT and T• and T2 are then
We also modified the records of two stations that had obvious averaged.
discontinuities.Thesestations,St. Helenain the tropicalAtlantic
Ocean and Lihue, Kauai, in Hawaii are both located on islandswith
few f anyneighbors, sotheyhavea noticeable influenceon analyzed identical,
representing
thesamemeasurements
thathavemadetheir
regionaltemperaturechange. The St. Helena station,basedon way into morethanone dataset.
metadataprovidedwith MCDW records,wasmovedfrom 604 m to A thirdrecordfor thesamelocation,f it exists,isthencombined
436 m elevationbetweenAugust 1976 and September1976. withthemeanof thefirsttworecords
in thesame
way,withall
Thereforeassuming a lapserate of about6øC/km,we added1øCto records
present
fora givenyearcontributing
equally
to themean
the St. Helenatemperatures beforeSeptember1976. Lihue had an temperature
forthatyear(HL87). Thisprocess
iscontinued
untilall
apparentdiscontinuity in its temperaturerecordaround1950. On stations
withoverlap
ata givenlocation
areemployed. If thereare
the basisof minimization of thediscrepancy with its few neighboring additional
stations
withoutoverlap,
thesearealsocombined, without
stations,we added0.8øCto Lihuetemperatures prior to 1950. adjustment,
providedthatthegapbetweenrecordsisnomorethan
The impact of our data deletionsand alterationsis small 10yearsandthemean temperatures
forthenearest
fiveyearperiods
comparedwith the climatechangesdiscussed in this paper. The of the two recordsdifferby lessthanone standard deviation.
largesteffectsare thosedue to the changeson St. Helenaandto a Stationswithlargergapsaretreatedasseparaterecords.
lesserextent Hawaii. Nevertheless,we wish to continue to clean and Thesinglerecordthatwe obtainfor a givenlocationis usedin
improvethe basicstationdata,f problemsor improvements canbe ouranalyses
ofregional
andglobal
temperature
change.
Thissingle
identified.In section10 we describe
easyaccessto all of our station record is not necessarilyappropriatefor local studies,and we
data via the world wide web. We would welcome feedback from recommend thatusersinterested
in a localanalysis
returnto the raw
userson anyspecificdatain thisrecord. GHCN data and examine all of the individual records for that
location,f morethanoneis available.Our rationalefor combining
the recordsat a given locationis principallythat it yieldslonger
4. Combination of Station Records records.Long recordsare particularlyeffectivein our "reference
station"analysisof regionalandglobaltemperaturechange,which
4.1. Records at Same Location
employsa weightedcombinationof all stationslocatedwith 1200
We firstdescribehow multiplerecordsfor the samelocationare km as described below.
combinedto forma singletime series.Thisprocedureis analogous The useof a singlerecordat eachlocationfor analysis of regional
to that used by HL87 to combinemultiple-stationrecords,but andglobaltemperature changeis onecharacteristic of our approach
because the records are all for the same location, no distance thatdistinguishes it from the firstdifferencemethod[Petersonet al.,
weightingfactoris needed. 1998b]. The firstdifferencemethodhastheadvantage thatit avoids
Two recordsare combinedas shownin Figure2, f theyhavea errorsdue to discontinuities in measurement proceduresat a given
periodof overlap. The meandifferenceor biasbetweenthe two location,f the dataare successfully splitinto pieceseachof which
recordsduringtheir periodof overlap(bT) is usedto adjustone has constantmeasurementprocedures. The referencestation
recordbeforethetwo are averaged,leadingto identificationof this methodhaslongerrecordsandtheconvenience of a singlerecordat
way for combiningrecords as the "bias" method (HL87) or, eachstationlocation. The referencestationmethodalsonaturally
alternatively,as the "referencestation"method[Petersonet al., avoidsgivingtoo muchweightto multiplemeasurements at thesame
1998b]. The adjustmentis usefulevenwith recordsfor nominally location but this problemcan be avoidedin the In:st difference
the samelocation,asindicatedby thelatitudeandlongitude,because methodwith appropriateweightingof records. It is not obvious
theymaydrier in the heightor surroundings of the thermometer,in whichof theseand othermethodsyieldsthe mostaccurateestimate
theirmethodof calculatingdailymeantemperature,or in otherways of long-term global temperaturechange. The hope is that the
thatinfluencemonthlymeantemperature. Althoughthe two records differencesamongthe methodsis much smallerthan the actual
to be combinedare shown as being distinctin Figure 2, in the globalchange,a resultthat tendsto be borneout in comparisons of
majorityof casesthe overlappingportionsof the two recordsare the results [Peterson et al., 1998b], as discussedbelow.
31,000 HANSEN ET AL.: GISS ANALYSIS OF SURFACE TEMPERATURE CHANGE
4.2. Regionaland Global Temperature then definedas the mean of the availablemonthlyanomalies,
Aftertherecords for thesamelocationarecombined intoa single providedthat dataare availablefor at leasttwo of the threemonths
time series,the resultingdata set is usedto estimateregional in thatseason.Similarly,an annualmeananomalyis definedasthe
temperaturechangeon a grid with 2øx2ø resolution. Stations meanof the availableseasonalanomalies,providedthat data are
available for at least three of the four seasons.
locatedwithin1200km of thegridpointareemployed witha weight
that decreases linearlyto zero at the distance1200km (HL87). We This approachleadsnaturallyto the useof an annualmeanbased
employall stationsfor whichthe lengthof the combinedrecordsis on the meteorological year, DecemberthroughNovember.Use of
at least 20 years; there is no requirementthat an individual whole seasons, without splittingof the December-January-February
contributingstationhaveanydatawithinour 1951-1980reference season, is convenient for studiesof interannual changeof seasonal
period. As a final step,after all stationrecordswithin 1200 km of climate, including comparison with climate model simulations.
a givengrid pointhavebeenaveraged,we subtractthe 1951-1980 However, for the sakeof comparisonwith analysesbasedon the
mean temperaturefor the grid point to obtain the estimated calendaryear,we alsocalculateannualmeansfor Januarythrough
December.
temperature anomalytime seriesof that grid point. Althoughan
anomalyis der'meal only for grid pointswith a der'meal 1951-1980 In addition,we use the monthlymeananomaliesto compute
mean,becauseof the smoothingover 1200 km, mostplaceswith "warm season" and "cool season" temperature anomalies.
data have a der'meal 1951-1980 mean. Specifically,we calculatethe anomaliesfor November-April
In principle,the abilityto use recordsthat do not includethe (Northern Hemispherecool season,SouthernHemisphere warm
referenceperiodis an advantageof our (referencestation)method season) and May-October, as discussed in section 8. We suggest
andthe f'n:stdifferencemethodof Petersonet al. [1998b] over the that for someclimatechangestudiesthesewarm andcoolseasons
climateanomalymethodof Joneset al. [1982, 1985, 1997a], but providea sufficient description of theclimatechange, andtheyallow
Joneset al. employmethodsof datainterpolation thatmitigatethis examination of the change in a small number of maps. Use of 6
disadvantage.The referencestationand first differencemethods month periods, instead of 3 months, reduces the impact of weather
alsocanmakeuseof stationswith arbitrarilyshortrecords,butwith noise,and the averageof the two seasonsprovidesan annual
eithermethod,a veryshortrecordcando moreharmthangood.For temperatureanomaly. We show in section9.1 that the annual
example,a 2 yearrecordaddedto the middleof a 100 yearrecord temperature anomalies basedon warmseasonpluscoolseason, the
can shift the second half of the record relative to the first half, meteorological year,andthe calendaryearare all verysimilar.
becauseof the (meteorological andmeasurement error) noisein the We generallyrestrictour analyses to the periodfrom 1880to the
shortrecord,thusyieldinga lessaccurateestimateof the long-term present,becauseof the poor spatialcoverageof stationsprior to
changethanwould be providedby the single100 year recordby 1880anduncertainties aboutthequalityof theearliermeasurements.
itself. For thisreasonwe employonlystationlocations for whichthe The oneexception is a mapof estimated temperature changeover
net recordlengthis at least20 years.This reducesthe numberof theperiod1870-1900in section8. In thatcase,thetopicof interest
stationsemployedfrom about 7300 to 6000 but has negligible is thelarge-scale patternsof temperature changeat northern middle
impacton the areacoverageof stations.Specifically, thechangeto latitudes, and the station coverage is probably sufficientfor that
Figure lc is imperceptible, when the 6000 stationsare employed, purpose.
rather than 7300 stations.
The globaldistribution of ourresultingtemperature datais shown 5. Homogeneity Adjustment
in Plate 1 for sixspecificyearsin thepast120 years.Thisillustrates
the stationcoveragethat is summarized for all yearsin Figure l c. Homogeneityadjustmentsare made to local time series of
Note thatthecoveragewith the approximately 6000 GHCN stations temperaturewith the aim of removingnonclimaticvariationsin the
thatwe employis onlyslightlygreaterthanfor the MCDW network temperaturerecord [Joneset al., 1985; Karl and Williams, 1987;
of about2000 stationsemployedby HL87. Easterling et al., 1996; Petersonet al., 1998a]. The nonclimatic
Becausewe allow a given stationto influencethe estimated factorsincludechangesof the environmentof the station,the
temperaturechangeto distancesof 1200 km fi'omthe station,our instrument or itslocation,observingpractices,
andthemethodused
maps,basedon onlymeteorologicalstationsyieldresultsat remote to calculatethemeantemperature. Quantitativeknowledgeof these
locations, includingmuchof theocean.Thisis usefulfor improving factorsis not availablein mostcases,so it is impossibleto fully
our estimateof globaltemperature change,asdiscussed in section7. correctfor them. Fortunately,therandomcomponent of sucherrors
However, theseremote temperaturechangeestimatesare only tendsto averageout in largeareaaveragesand in calculations of
expectedto be validin an averagesense;thatis, theyareunlikelyto temperaturechangeover longperiods.
yieldlocallyaccuratemeasuresof changeat a substantial distance The nonrandom inhomogeneityof mostconcernis anthropogenic
from stations.Thuswe alsoemploya temperatureindexin which influenceon the air sampledby the thermometers.Urbanheatcan
we combineour analysisof surfaceair temperature changefor land produce a large local bias toward warming lMitchell, 1953;
with analyses of SST changefor oceanregions(section7). Landsberg,19811as citiesare built up and energyuseincreases.
Our estimateof global temperaturechangeusesthe grid box Anthropogenic effectscan alsocausea nonclimatic cooling,for
temperatureanomaliesto firstestimatetemperaturetime seriesfor example,as a resultof irrigationand plantingof vegetation,but
threelargezonalblocksof theEarth(90øN-23.6øN,23.6øN-23.6øS, theseeffectsareusuallyoutweighed by urbanwarming.
23.6øS-90øS),asdescribed in section6. Thismethodof averaging We take advantageof the metadataaccompanying the GHCN
overtheworldwasintroduced by Hansenet al. (1981) in an attempt records, which includes classification of each station as rural
to minimizethe error due to very incompletespatialsampling.A (populationlessthan 10,000), smalltown (10,000 to 50,000), and
quantitativeestimateof the samplingerror is includedbelow with urban(more than50,000), to calculatea bilinearadjustment for
our calculatedglobaltemperature. urbanstations.The adjustment is basedon the assumption that
human effects are smaller in rural locations. We retain the
4.3. PeriodsAnalyzed
unadjustedrecordandmakeavailableresultsfor bothadjusted and
We usethe abovemethodto obtaina time seriesof temperature unadjustedtimeseries(section10). The homogeneity adjustment
changefor eachmonth. A seasonal
meantemperature anomalyis for a givencityis der'meal
to changelinearlywith timebetween1950
HANSEN ET AL.' GISS ANALYSIS OF SURFACE TEMPERATURE CHANGE 31,001
and the final year of data and to changelinearlywith a possibly Landsburg,1981]. The urbaneffectin Phoenixoccursmainlyin the
differentslopebetween1950 and the beginningof the record. The secondhalf of the century. The urban-adjusted Phoenixrecord
slopesof the two straightline segments are chosento minimizethe showslittle long-termtemperaturechange.
weighted-meanroot-mean-square differenceof the urbanstation Examinationof this urbanadjustmentat manylocations,which
timeserieswith thetimeseriesof nearbyruralstations.An adjusted can be done readilyvia our web site (section10), showsthat the
urban record is def'medonly if there are at least three rural adjustment is quitevariablefrom placeto placeandcanbe of either
neighbors for at leasttwo thirdsof the periodbeingadjusted.All sign. In somecasesthe adjustmentis probablymore an effect of
ruralstationswithin 1000km are usedto calculatethe adjustment, small-scalenaturalvariabilityof temperature(or errors)at the rural
with a weightthat decreases linearlyto zero at distance1000 km. neighbors,rather than a true urban effect. Also, the actual
The functionof the urbanadjustmentis to allow the local urban nonclimatic component of the urban temperature change can
measurements to define short-termvariationsof the adjusted encompass manyfactorswith irregulartime dependence, suchas
temperature whileruralneighbors definethelong-termchange.The stationrelocationsandchangesof the thermometer'senvironment,
breakin the adjustment line at 1950 allowssometime dependence whichwill not be representedwell by our linearadjustment.Such
in the rate of growth of the urbaninfluence. falselocaladjustments will be of bothsigns,andthustheeffectsmay
The measuredand adjustedtemperaturerecordsfor Tokyo, tendto averageout in globaltemperature analyses,
butit is difficult
Japan,andfor Phoenix,Arizona,areshownin Figure3. Theseare to haveconfidencein the useof urbanrecordsfor estimatingclimate
amongthe most extremeexamplesof urban warming,but they change.We recommendthat the adjusteddatabe usedwith great
illustratea humaninfluencethat can be expectedto existto some caution,especiallyfor local studies.
degreein all populationcenters.Tokyo warmedrelativeto its rural Theseexamplesillustratethat urbaneffectson temperaturein
neighbors in boththefirstandthe secondhalvesof thecentury.The specificcasescan dominateover real climatetrends. Fortunately,
true nonclimaticwarmingin Tokyo may be even somewhatlarger there are far more rural stations than urban stations, so it is not
thansuggested by Figure3, becausesome"urban"effectis known essentialto employthe urbandatain analysesof globaltemperature
to occur even in small towns and rural locations [Mitchell, 1953; change. We includeadjustedurban stationdata in our standard
Tokyo Phoenix
18
, , , , 25/ , , , , |
Measured
Temperature 24 Measured
Temperature
23
o•'16
22
E 14 21
13 20
(a)
, t I I 19
Adjustments
i i i i i 0
..... 26..... /
18-
, 25
•'17
ß , 24 ,
15-
14
Adjusted
Temperature 1 •'' Adiusted
Teml•rature
V _1
...... Mean
i
ofRural
,
Neighbors
, ,
(c) 1
/ 21
I ......M•anofRura•
Neighbors
' (f) 1
1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000
Figure 3. (a, b) Measuredtimeseriesof temperature

for Tokyo, Japan,andfor Phoenix,Arizona;(c, d) adjustments
requiredfor lineartrendsof measuredtemperatures
to matchruralneighborsfor the periodsbeforeandafter 1950;and
31,002 HANSEN ET AL.: GISS ANALYSIS OF SUR_FACETEMPERATURE CHANGE
analysisprimarilyfor the sakeof the lastfew yearsof the record, stations (this allowed noise at the one or two stations to have
especiallythe f'malyear. The fractionof reportingstationsthat are excessiveimpact on the global mean). The physicalbasisfor
urbanjumpsfromaboutonequarterto onethirdin the mid-1990s choosingthesespecificzonesis discussed in section6.3.
and to about one half in the f'malyear of the record when the Althoughthisestimateof globaltemperaturechangeis derived
availablereportsare mainlyfrom MCDW stations. We showin from what are nominally"landonly" measurements, it is a better
section6.2 thatthe urbanstationshavelittle influenceon the global estimateof globalchangethanwhat mightbe expectedgiventhat
temperature change.Examples of theregionalinfluence
areincluded landcoversonly30% of the world. Estimatesof the uncertainty in
in the appendix. theannual-mean and5 yearrunning-mean globalmeantemper-atures
at differenttimesareindicatedby error barsin Figure4. Theseerror
estimates, whichaccountonlyfor the incomplete spatialsampling of
6. Temperatures from Meteorological Stations the data, were obtainedby HL87 from samplingstudieswith 100
year climatesimulationsusinga globalclimatemodelthat had a
6.1. Global Temperature
realisticmagnitudeof spatial-temporalvariability of surfaceair
The near-global temperature, basedon themeteorologicalstation temperature.
data,is shownin Figure4. Thisresultis basedon rural,small-town, We describethe globaltemperaturechangeof the pastcentury,
andhomogeneity-adjusted urbanstations.However,we showbelow assummarizedby Figure4, asfollows. In the period1880-1910the
that the effectof deletingurbanstations,or deletingbothurbanand worldwasabout0.3øCcolderthanin thebaseperiod1951-1980and
smalltown stations,is negligiblein comparison with the measured exhibited no obvious trend. Over the three decades 1910-1940 the
temperaturechange of the past century, consistentwith the temperature increased
0.3øC,i.e., about0.1øC/decade.Betweenthe
conclusionof [Petersonet al., 1999]. Examplesof the global 1930s or the 1940s and the 1970s there was little global mean
distributionof data from which the globalmeanestimateswere temperaturechange,perhapsa slightcooling. Betweenthe mid-
obtainedareshownin Plate1 for sixspecificyears.A givenstation 1970s and the late 1990s global temperatureincreasedby about
is assumedto providea usefulestimateof monthlyand annual 0.5øC,i.e., about0.2øC/decade,abouttwicetherateof warmingthat
temperatureanomalies to a distanceof 1200km basedon observed occurredearlyin the century.
correlationsof stationrecords(HL87). A globaltemperaturecurvemore-or-lesssimilarto Figure4 has
Ourestimateof globaltemperature
changeisobtainedby dividing beenpublished anddiscussed manytimes,especially by theUEA and
theworldintobroadlatitudezones,estimating
temperatureanomaly GISS groupsbut alsoby NCDC andothergroupsandindividuals.
time seriesfor eachzone,and thenweightingthesezonesby their Nevertheless,it maybe worth notingkey featuresof thiscurve.
area. The zones, northern latitudes (90øN-23.6øN), low latitudes First,therateof warmingin the past25 yearsis thehighestin the
(23.6øN-23.6øS),andsouthernlatitudes(23.6øS-90øS),cover 30%, periodof instrumental data. Indeed,proxymeasures of temperature
40% and 30% of the Earth's surface. On the basis of tests with changeover the past six centuriesdo not reveal clearly any
model-generatedgloballycomplete data sets, HL87 found this comparableburstof warming[Mann et al., 1998]. Comparisons
methodof globalaveragingto yield a better approximationthan overlongerperiodsaredifficult,because datafor earliertimeshave
othertestedalternatives,
suchassimpleareaweightingof all regions lessaccuracy, coverage,andtemporalresolution,butit is clearthat
with data(thisgavetoo muchweightto the NorthernHemisphere) theglobaltemperature changeof thepast25 yearsis at leasthighly
or useof narrowerlatitudezonesas soonas they had one or two unusual.
.6
i !GlobalTemperature ! : "
.4 : : . . . ! •.il, ,.•.;I
.....! .....:.... (meteorological
stationsl
-:.......i,---.ij•*:..
• [•1
:: :, ,: ,• :, ,, ,: , ::. .,•:: .: ,.,• , ..:• .. :: ::

, , , •: .... • : ,__i : __• '_: _., _. : .
: i'. :
' i'::•' ::: : •:: :: :: :: i: :: i :: ::
.._u
...... ....... ...... :,...... i....... i..........
[..................
i.................
-.6
18 t0 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Year
Figure4. Globalannual-mean surface

airtemperature
changebasedonthemeteorologicalstationnetwork.Uncertainty
bars(95% confidence
limits),shownfor boththeannualandthe5 yearmeans,arebasedon spatialsampling
analysis
of
HL87.
HANSEN ET AL.: GISS ANALYSIS OF SUR•'ACE TEMPERATURE CHANGE 31,003
Temperature Anomaly (øC)

1880 -.20 1900 -.02 193o - 03
1960 -.02 1980 .26 1995 43
I 1
-4 -3 -2 -1 -.3 .3 1 2 3 4
Plate 1. Temperatureanomalies,
relativeto the baseperiod1951-1980,for 6 yearsthatillustratethe changeof station
coveragewith time (compareFigure1c).
Second,the globaltemperaturein 1998 waseasilythe warmest Description

of theglobaltemperature
changeduringrecentdecades
in the periodof instrumental
data,beingwell outsidethe rangeof is reconsideredin section7, after inclusionof oceantemperature
uncertainty causedby incompletespatialsampling.The warmthof changes.
1998 musthavebeenin part associated with a strongE1Nino that
occurredin 1997-1998 [McPhaden, 1999]. However, strongE1 6.2. Urban Effects on Global Temperature
Ninos haveoccurredin previousyearswithout engenderingsuch We testfor anthropogenic
influence
on ourglobaltemperature
as
unusualglobalwarmth,andtheglobalmapsbelowindicatethatthe follows:We use the methodfor calculatingglobaltemperature
warmthof 1998 wastoo pervasive to be accounted for solelyby the describedabovebut with the sourcedata being(1) only rural
E1 Nino. stations,(2) rural and small-townstations,(3) all stations,with no
Third, the additionof the 1990sdata to the globaltemperature homogeneitycorrection;and (4) all stations,with urbanstations
curve, especiallywith the point for 1998 included,representsa adjustedusingnearbyruralneighbors asdescribed in section5. We
sufficientlylargequalitativechangeto the appearance of the record usethedefinition of Petersonet al. [ 1997]for thesecategories; that
that it undercutssome of the time-honoredclichesin the global is,ruralareashavea recentpopulation lessthan10,000,smalltowns
warmingdiscussion.For example,"mostof the globalwarming between 10,000 and 50,000 and urban areasmore than 50,000.
occurredbefore1940"is clearlyshownto beinvalid.Eventhemost Thesepopulations referto approximately 1980.
shopwornsummary,that globalwarmingin the industrialera is Theglobaltemperature curvesfor thesepopulation categories are
"about0.5øC,"is probablyno longervalid. shownin Plate2a. The urbaninfluenceon globaltemperature
Quantitativeassessment of themagnitude of globalwarmingsince estimatedin thisway is small. Furthermore,mostof the influence
the late 1800srequiresconsideration of (1) the effect of including suggested in Plate2a is onlyapparent,muchof thevariationbeing
ocean regionsmore completelyand accurately,but we estimate causedby thefactthattheareassampled bytheseveraldatasetsare
below (section7) that thishaslittle impacton the long-termglobal not thesame.Thislatterfactoris easilyinvestigated by calculating
temperaturechange; (2) the effect of imperfect homogeneity theglobaltemperature changeusingonlythecommonareawhereall
adjustment, for example,residualurbanwarming,but we estimate of the datasetshavea def'medtemperature, with resultsshownin
below (section 6.2) that this effect is small; (3) the Plate2b. Petersonet al. [1999] previouslycomparedestimated
unrepresentativeness of the 1998temperature, whichwasenhanced globaltemperature changefor all stationswith that for rural plus
by a strongE1Nino [McPhaden,1999],butwe arguebelowthatthe small-town stations; our result is consistent with theirs.
global mean "background"temperature has reached a level Why doestheurbaninfluenceon our globalanalysis seemto be
approximately 0.5øC above the 1951-1980 mean. Thus it is sosmall,in viewof the largeurbanwarmingthatwe f'mdat certain
probablybetterto saynow thatglobalwarmingsincethe late 1800s locations(section5)? Part of the reasonis that urbanstationsare a
is "about3/4øC." Indeed,if the typicalyear reachesa level only smallproportionof the totalnumberof stations.Specifically,
55-
slightlyabovethe 1998 temperature,it would becomeappropriate 60% of the stationsare rural, about 20% are small town, and 20-
to describethe warmingas"about1øC." 25% are urban,with sometemporalvariation. In addition,local
Finally,we commenton the last 25 yearsof the record. This inhomogeneities
are variable;someurbanstationsshowlittle or no
period can be describedsimplyas a time of strong warming, warming,or evena slightcooling,relativeto ruralneighbors.Such
modulatedby brief coolingsin the early 1980s and 1990s (the resultscan be a real systematiceffect, e.g., coolingby planted
coolings,coincidentally or not,beingassociated with largevolcanos vegetationor themovementof a thermometer awayfromtheurban
and solar minima). Alternatively,the global temperaturecan be center,or a randomeffect of unforcedregionalvariabilityand
described ashavinga jumpin thelate 1970s,relativelylittlewarming measurement errors. Another consideration is that even rural
between1980 andthemid-1990sandanotherjumpin thelate 1990s. locationsmay containsome anthropogenic
influence[Mitchell,
31,004 HANSEN ET AL.: GISS ANALYSIS OF SUR•'ACE TEMPEIU•,'I'UPdg CHANGE
Global5-Year-Running-Mean
Surface
AirTemperature
Change
Integrated
overRegions
ofAvailable
Data Integrated
overCommon
DataRegions
.5 ' • •. •- i • .5 ,. • , •
Rural+ SmallTown
l
_/
Rural
Rural+ SmallTown
•' '• Rural
+Small
Town
+Unajusted
.•d Urban .3• Rural+
Small
Town
+Unadjusted
Urban
•/v-
3-9
._, . -
• -
_.•
•880
i
19(X) 1•20 19•1

i -5
l.d60 1980 20•I880
(a)-.4
1•• I
1920 1940 1•60
(b)
_
ld80 2(I.g)
Plate2. (a) Global5 yearrunning-mean
surface
airtemperature
changebased onrural,ruralplussmalltown,allstations
withoutanyhomogeneity adjustment,
andallstations
withtheurbanrecordsadjustedasdescribedin section
5. (b) Same
asPlate2a,butwiththeregionusedto calculate
globaltemperature
restricted
to thecommon areawherethetemperature
is def'med for all data sets.
1953;Landsburg,
1981].However,it isclearthattheaverage
urban zoneof industrialactivity).The othertwo zonesaremainlyocean,
influence
on themeteorological
stationrecordis far smallerthanthe
but the tropicallatitudesdifferfrom the otherzonesin havinga
extreme urban effect found in certain urban centers. relativelyshallowocean-mixed
layer.
Regionalurbaneffectsin our analyzedrecordmay exceed Whenwe introduced themethodof weightingstationrecordsto
substantially
thesmallglobaleffectssuggested by Plate2, andthe distancesof 1200 km [Hansenet al., 1981], one of our contentions
smalldifferences amongthe curvesin Plate2 mayunderstate the wasthatthisalloweda goodestimate of globaltemperature change
true urbaneffect on global temperature. If categorization of for the past century. In addition,the divisioninto broad zones
warmingby stationpopulation weretheonlytestof therealityof revealedsignificantdifferencesamongthe global and the zonal
globalwarming,conclusions wouldbequiteconstrained. However, temperature changes, for example,thepresence of long-termglobal
the dominance of real climatechangeover analysis error due to warmingdespiterapid cooling at northernlatitudesfor several
urbaneffectsis affirmedby the spatialpatternsof the global decades(1940-1975). The longer record that is now available
warming,whichshowthatthewarminghasoccurred primarilyin permitsmore def'mitivecomparisons amongthesebroadlatitude
remotecontinental andoceanic areas(section8) andbyindependent zones.
evidenceof globalwarmingmentionedin section11. Figure 5 illustratesthat the global cooling after 1940 was
We conclude,as alreadyreportedby Joneset al. [ 1990] and confmed mainlyto thenorthern latitudes,
whichcooledstrongly, by
Petersonet al. [ 1999],thattheurbaneffecton globaltemperature about0.5øC,between194½1 andtheearly1970s. Sincetheearly
changeanalyses is smallcompared with the magnitude of global 1970sthenorthern latitudeshavewarmedrapidly,byabout0.8øCin
warming.Ourestimate is thattheanthropogenic urbancontribution 25 years. It wasnot untilthe late 1980sthat the (5 yearmean)
to ourglobaltemperature curveforthepastcentury (Figure4) does temperatureof northernlatitudesexceededthe levelof 1940, but the
not exceedapproximately 0.1øC. temperature is now well abovethat level.Despitethe rapidityof
We chooseasour standard analysisthe resultsbasedon rural, northernlatitudewarmingin the past25 years,thiswarmingrate
small-town,andadjusted urbanstations. Theadjusted urbanstations was nearlymatchedby an earlierriseof about0.6øC between1920
increase
thespatial
coverage
intheearlypartof therecord,
mainly and 1940.
between1880 and 1900. For example,if at leastthreerural Tropical latitudes,aller warming about 0.2C in the 1920s,
neighborsexistfor two thirdsof theperiod1880-1950,we usethe showedlittle temperature changefor the next halfcenturyuntila
adjusted
urbanrecordfor thefullperiod.Suchurbanrecords reduce suddenleapof temperature by about0.25øCin the late 1970s.For
thesamplingerroratthetimeintherecord whenincompletespatial thenexttwo decades thetropicsonlywarmedmoderately priorto
coverageis probablythegreatestsourceof error. an intensewarmingin the late 1990s that was associatedwith a
strongE1Nino [McPhaden, 19991.
Southernlatitudeshavewarmedmore steadilyover the past
6.3. Temperature in Broad Zonal Bands
century(Figure5c). Mostof thedecadaltemperature swingshave
The globaltemperature changeof the past centurycan be limitedsignificance because of thepoorspatialsampling in muchof
contrasted with thetemperature changein broadzonalbands.It is thecentury.However,thesouthern latitudecoolingin the 1990sis
commonto examinethe Northernand SouthernHemispheres largerthanthesampling uncertainty. Althoughourobjective hereis
separately (ourwebpageincludes hemispheric means,for people notto presentinterpretationsof theobserved temperature change,
addictedto thatpresentation), but we preferinsteadto dividethe anddecadalvariations in earlierperiodswerecommon,it maybe
worldin threebroadzonalbands: northernlatitudes
(90øN-23.6øN), notedthata negativeclimateforcingoccurredin thelirsthalfof the
tropicallatitudes(23.6øN-23.6øS),andsouthern latitudes(23.6øS
- 1990sdueto thevolcanoof thecentury[Satoet al., 1993;Russell
90øS), whichcover 30%, 40%, and 30% of the Earth'ssurface. It et al., 1996;Hansenet al., 1997],andanycoolingeffectmightbe
isreasonable to expectthatclimatechanges maydifferamongthese anticipatedto havea morelastingeffectin the southernlatitudes
threezones.The northernlatitudesaremainlyland(aswellasthe because of theoceanthermalinertiathere.A lessernegative climate
HANSENET AL.: GISSANALYSISOF SURFACETEMPERATURECHANGE 31,005
Temperature
in ThreeLatitudeBands .. halfcentury.Practical
socioeconomic
impacts
of climatechange
dependupontheregional climate
changes,
whichweillustrate
in
section 8.
.6 Northern
Latitudes
(90ON_23
!
6ON) .: :I .•1..% Thereis no requirement that regionaltemperatures should
: _ _'..... correspondinmagnitudetoglobal temperature change,
oreventhat
--
,
•--
,
• ?- ,%-:. -¾,--..-:.... : - -r-- ' •- - -
theybequalitatively
similar.Yet, otherthingsbeingequal,the
expectationhasbeenthata middle-latitude landareawouldwarm
morethantheglobalaverage inresponse to a global
forcing
suchas
greenhouse gases[Manabe andWetheraid, 1975;Hansen et al.,
-.2 . ,:.: --- •- '; :--
, ..:..!: .
oh'-' ...........
1988].TheUnitedStates
a warming trend(Figure
overthepast2-3 decades
6), butprediction
hasreverted
of whether
to
theUnited
:
_.66 ,
,I .' i, .....
Statestemperature
warming requires
will climbto levelsconsistent
anunderstanding of themechanisms
coolingthatbeganin the1930s(Figure6).
with global
behind the
'/ Low
Latitudes Someindicationsofpossible
reasonsfordifferent
behaviors
of the
.4•--1,•
(23.6ON_23.6os)
-:............. UnitedStatesandglobalaveragetemperatures
canbeobtained
from
.21• :•!:: .
. !'.i
. !!
! •'-,.
:..., :. ,:: : . :[,• :
examining
aspectsof the temperature
changesuchas its
.,, .,;_. 1 "' _
.0..ß::,'"':.....'1, •'• ,:'
geographical
andseasonal
behavior.
However,before
doingthisit
is usefulto examinelandandoceantemperature
changetogether.
7. Global Temperature Index

-.6 I i ,: ' , ' 7.1. Global Annual-Mean TemperatureIndex
' Southern
Latitudes
' , Temperature measurementsoverthe oceans increaseglobal
..... (236 S-90S) . , coverageof databut add otheruncertainties to the global
• _ T }, _ temperature
record[Follandetal., 1992;Parkeretal., 1994,1995;
Rayneretal., 1996].Surface
airmeasurements wouldbethemost
•-.2. appropriate
data,butshipheightsandspeeds havechanged in the
pastcenturyandmeasurements onships probablyhavebeeneven
-.4 •-i•: .......................... (c)
lessuniformthanscreened
measurements
at meteorological
stations.
An alternative is to use sea surface temperature (SST)
- ' 1•00 ' 1•20 1940 1960 1980 2000
measurements.Methodsof measuringSSTalsohavechanged with
Figure5. Annualand5 yearrunning-mean airtemperature time,mostnotably
surface frombucketwaterto engine intakewater,and
changeforthreelatitude
bands thatcover30%,40%,and30%of anomalies in SSTneednottrackprecisely anomaliesin surfaceair
theglobalarea.Uncertainty
bars(95%confidencelimits)arebased temperature.However,SSTshavethe advantage of being
onspatialsamplinganalysis
of HL87. measurable
fromsatellite,
andthusnear-global
coverage is available
for recentdecades,
andthesatellitedataareroutinelyupdated.For
this reasonwe chooseto combineSST anomaliesof ocean areas
withthesurfaceair dataoverland,describing
theresultasa global
forcing(coolingtendency) at southernlatitudesin the 1980sand temperature
index [Hansen et al., 1996].
1990swascaused byozonedepletion,whichpeakedoverAntarctica We usethe SST dataof Reynoldsand Smith[1994] for the
[Hollandsworthet al., 1995;Hansenet al., 1997]. period1982to present.Thisis their"blended" analysisproduct,
6.4. U.S. Mean Temperature U.S. Temperature

1.5 i , i ! ' i ' i :
Temperature changein theUnitedStates(Figure6) andin the
globalmean(Figure4) havesomesimilarity,but they are not
congruent.In particular,
centuryis lessconvincing
evidence for long-termwarmingthis
for the UnitedStatesthanit is for the
,.o
I- ! ,
globe.Of course,year-to-year variability
is muchlargerfor the >" .5 ' '-•i: ! '.: ', , i-'- ß •.. -.."i'•
UnitedStates,whichrepresents onlyabout2% of the areaof the
world.
ß .: :i:.:.. ß ':. ::-i *.i! :: ....
The U.S. temperature increased by about0.8øCbetweenthe
1880sandthe 1930s,butit thenfell by about0.7øCbetween1930
andthe 1970sandregainedonlyabout0.3øCof thisbetweenthe
1970sandthe1990s.Theyear1998wasthewarmest yearof recent
decadesin theUnitedStates,butin general,U.S. temperatures
have
not recovered even to the level that existed in the 1930s. This
contrasts
withglobaltemperatures,
whichhaveclimbedfar above 2000
the levelsof the first half of thiscentury.
The meantemperature changefor the United Stateshides Figure6. Annual and5 yearrunning-mean surface
airtemperature
considerable variationof the change,particularly (meteorological
geographical year,December-November) forthecontiguous
48
andwarmingin theWestduringthepast United States relative to the 1951-1980 mean.
coolingin theSoutheast
31,006 HANSEN ET AL.' GISS ANALYSIS OF SURFACE TEMPERATURE CHANGE
based on satellite measurementscalibrated with the help of temperaturesbasedon GISST, Reynoldsand Smith, and only
thousandsof shipand buoy measurements.For the period 1950- meteorologicalstations.The standarddeviations
aboutthemeanfor
1981 we usethe SST data of Smith et ai. [ 1996], which are basedon the entireperiod11950-1998)for thesethreedatasetsare 0.17ø,
fittingshipmeasurements to empiricalorthogonalfunctions(EOFs) 0.19 ø and 0.2½)øC. These are similar to the standard deviations used
developedfor the periodof satellitedata. For comparison, we also byHansenet al. [ 19811,0.1øCfor 10 yearsand0.2øCfor 100years,
calculatetheglobaltemperatureindexusingour landdatacombined to estimatethat global warming due to greenhousegasesshould
with the SSTsof theGISST analysis[Parker et aL, 1995;Raynetet exceednaturalvariabilityin the 1990s.
al., 1996]. With eitherSST datasetwe usethe SSTswhereverthey
are deFmedand useour meteorologicalstationanalysisto fill in as
7.2. Seasonal-MeanTemperature Index
much of the rest of the world as possible. Thus becausethe
ReynoldsandSmithSSTsare not deftnedsouthof 45øS,we usethe The seasonal(three month) mean is a useful frequencyfor
analysisbasedon meteorological stationsto coverthatlatituderange studyinglarge area temperaturechange. It is long enough to
as well as possible. averageout mostweathernoisebutshortenoughto deFmefeatures
We comparetheglobalannualtemperatureindexobtainedusing that haveirregularperiodsof a year or so, suchas E1Ninos. The
the two differentdata sourcesfor SST with our analysisbasedon seasonalmeanof the land-oceantemperatureindexfor the last haft
only meteorological stationsin Plate 3a, andwe comparethe 5 year of the twentiethcenturyis shown in Figure 7 averagedover the
meansof the samedata in Plate 3b. GISST yieldsslightlymore globeandover the tropics.The datesof majorvolcanosare marked
rapid global warming in the past two decadesthan does the for reference, as are the occurrencesof E1Ninos and La Ninas. The
ReynoldsandSmithdata. Thisdifference,discussed at a workshop timingof E1NinosandLa Ninasis basedon the temperaturemaps
on November 2-4, 1998, at Lamont-DohertyEarth Observatory of section 9.1 below but correspondsclosely with Southern
[WMO, 1999], occursmainlyat highlatitudesandmay be causedin Oscillation indices |Rasmusson,1985].
part by inadequate shipcalibrationof the satelliteSST dataandthe E1NinosandLa Ninasshowup prominentlyin the low-latitude
treatmentof seaice. The apparentdifferencebetweenthe GISST temperature.Their impactalsocanbe seenin theglobaltemperature
and the Reynolds/Smith curvesis minimizedby the fact that theyare but only in approximateaccordwith the portionof the globalarea
both forced to have a zero mean for the interval 1951-1980. Also, 140%)represented by the low latitudes.In general,an E1Nino or La
the index using Reynolds/Smith data employs the GISS Nina causesthe globaltemperatureto deviatefrom its meantrend
meteorologicalstation data at latitudessouth of 45øS and their lineby at most0.2øC. In onlytwo instances in thishalfcenturywere
positivetrend partiallycompensates for the weaker trend in the theresomewhatlargerdeviationsof temperature, in 1964 and 1992,
Reynolds/Smithdata at other latitudes. both casesoccurringafter a large volcano.
One resultillustratedby Plate 3 is how closelythe analysisof The data in Figure 7 provide only weak support for the
meteorologicalstation data alone approximatesthe global land- contentionof Hunt [1999] that the frequencyof La Ninas has
oceantemperature index. The methodof analyzingthe meteoro- decreasedin concert with the global warming of the past two
logicalstationdata was designedto yield an estimateof global decades;nor doesthe datain Figure7 suggestthat the strongestE1
temperature changeat a timewhengloballyanalyzed SSTdatawere Ninos of the last two decades, in 1983 and 1997-1998, had an
notreadilyavailable[Hansenet al., 1981]. Islandstationsandocean unusualimpacton tropicaltemperaturecomparedwith earlierlarge
areasup to 1200km fromthecoastlinesareincluded in theglobal E1Ninos. However,the mapsof temperatureanomaliesin section
integrationin a way intendedto captureas muchof the ocean's 9.1 revealthat the La Ninasof recentdecadeshavebeenunusually
effectonglobaltemperature aspermittedbythecorrelation distance weak. The mapsalsoshow that the E1 Ninos of 1983 and 1997-
of temperature anomalies. 1998 were unusuallystrongwithinthe PacificOceanregion,andthat
The standarddeviationof the globaltemperature basedon only the E1Ninosthatstandout in Figure7 are those(includingthe 1997-
meteorological stationdataalsocloselyapproximates thestandard 1998 E1Nino) whichwere accompanied by warm conditionsin the
deviationof the completeland-oceanglobaltemperaturecurves. Atlantic and/or the Indian Oceans.
Specifically,
thestandard deviationsaboutthe 11 yearrunningmeans A simpledescription
of thelong-termtemperature changein this
are 0.105ø, 0.116ø, and 0.125øC for the annual-meanglobal halfcentury11950-1999)is thatthemwasno trendof eithertropical
GlobalAnnual-MeanTemperature • 5-YearMeanTemperature
............
I and-Ocean
Index(Reynolds
& Smith) ' 4 • ..... - l.and-Ocean
(Reynolds
& Smith)
......! and-Ocean
Index
((iISST) I ' ] ......I and-Ocean
•(;I•ST)
- -- Meteorological
Stations '• / .3• - -- Mctcorologichl
Stations
,,'-t: :. -'
(a) -..,[,; y, X/ (b)
, , _4/' ,{ , , , ,, , , ,,,
•(} 1960 !dr1'} It]80 "i'J90 2000
1.
ggO' 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 201)0
Plate3. (a) Globalannual-mean changeof land-oceantemperature
indexwithSSTsbasedonReynolds andSmith[ 1994]
compared with the(near)globalsurfaceair temperature
anomalybasedon themeteorological
stationnetwork(Figure
4), (b) 5 yearmeanof thisland-oceantemperatureindex,thesameindexwithGISST [Parkeret al., 1995;Rayneret al.,
1996] usedfor the SST, andthe near-globaltemperature changebasedon onlylandmeteorological stations.
HANSEN ET AL.: GISS ANALYSIS OF SURFACE TEMPERATURE CHANGE 31,007
Temperature
IndexChangeat Seasonal
Resolution
.8
•6
o4
•1 all : ,
r,.)
o
.2 ............ .' 'a..':.: , :•i/: i :•.n.•
• o0
• •.2 =•: . .••a.•.•..

•:..-•- .
• , , ,• , , I , $ , [• , , ' ' ß '
<
E ,2
i
i
i
i
i
i
••,,,•
•' (23.6ON_23.6os)
Low
i
Latitudes
:
, ,,
., : : : ., : ., i
-.6
1950 1955 1960 1965 970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995
Figure7. Surface
temperature
indexchange
since1950atseasonal
resolution,
fortheglobeandforlowlatitudes.
Semi
circlesmarkLa Ninas,rectangles
markE1Ninos,andtriangles
marklargevolcanos.
or globaltemperaturein the firsthalfof the periodbut thena rather temperatures may be misleadingregardinglong-termchange,
strongwarmingin the secondhalf of the period. A more detailed becausethe planetat those2 timesis in differentphasesof the
descriptionis that therewas no trendin the first 25 years,a sharp tropicalE1Ninocycle.Also,simulations
witha globalclimatemodel
increaseof temperature(by about0.2øC)in the late 1970s,followed usingcurrentSSTsasa boundary condition[Hansenet al., 1999]
by a weak warmingtrendfor abouttwo decades,andthenpossibly indicatethattheplanetwithmid-1999oceantemperatures is out of
anotherjump in the late 1990s. radiation balance, with net energy inflow to the planet. We
The final three seasonsin Figure7, throughmid-1999, suggest infer that the mid-1999 temperatureis a floor from whichglobal
thatthecoolingdueto thecurrentLa Nina mayalreadybe achieving temperaturewill soonrise.
its maximum effect. If that is correct, and if the seasonal
temperaturebeginsto reboundfrom the strongdeclineof the past 8. Decade-Century Regional Temperature Change
year,thenit appearsthat globaltemperatureindeedhasmovedto a
significantlyhigherlevel, perhapsto an averageof about 0.5øC 8.1. Global Maps of Temperature Change
abovethe 1951-1980 mean. There is a precedentin this record, Globalpatterns
of surface
temperature
changeprovideinvaluable
from mid-1973 to mid-1976, when prolongedLa Nina cooling clues about the mechanisms, both natural fluctuations and
helpeddragdownglobaltemperature for an extendedperiod(Figure anthropogenic influence,which may be involvedin decade-to-
7 and section 9.1). However, rebounds of tropical mean centuryclimatechange. We focusespeciallyon the past half
temperaturehaveoccurredafter all La Ninasin thishalf century,in century, which is the time with the most complete climate
mostcasesaccompanied by a reboundin globalmeantemperature. observations, an unusuallylarge rate of climatechange,and the
Thus,as discussed in section9.2, we anticipateconfirmationwithin largestand best measuredanthropogenic climateforcings. For
the next severalseasons,after the currentLa Nina dissipates,that thesereasonswe believethat successful descriptionof this period
globaltemperaturehasmovedto a higherlevel. is the sine qua non of any claimedinterpretiveand predictive
capabilitiesfor decade-to-centuryclimatechange.
7.3. Monthly Mean Temperatures Theprincipalfeaturesin temperature changeof thepast50 years
Monthlymeanglobaltemperatures areshownin Figure8 for the (Plate 4) are (1) a strongwarmingtrend in northernAsia and
presentdecade.Thesemonthlydataare affectedmoreby weather northwestNorth America,(2) coolingin the North Atlantic and
noisethan the seasonalmean(Figure7), but longerterm features Greenland region,centered on BaffinBay,and(3) nearlyubiquitous
suchasthe coolingafterthe Mount Pinatuboeruptionof 1991 and tropicalwarming. We commenthere only briefly aboutclimate
the 1998 E1Nino are still apparent. Figure8 alsoshowsthat the mechanisms thatmightbe involvedin thisclimatechange.The data
meteorological stations,despitetheirlimitedgeographical coverage, inviteinterpretation,whichcanbe pursuedwith or withoutthehelp
do a good job of reproducingthe more truly global land-ocean of climate models.
temperature index. Figure8 is updatedeachmonthon our web site The map of temperaturechangein Plate 4 reveals detail
(www.giss.nasa.gov/data/update/gistemp/graphs/). associated with the earlierobservation(Figure6) [seealsoHanson
The globaltemperature in mid 1999 hasfallento a leveltypical et al., 1989] that the United Stateshasnot warmedasmuchasthe
of 1997. However,despitetheappearance of thisgraph,we suggest restof theworldthiscentury.Indeed,theeasternhalf of theUnited
in section9.2 that the underlyingglobal•temperature,i.e., the Stateshas cooledin the past half century. At first glance,the
averageover two or three years,movedto a significantlyhigher coolingin the United Statesseemsto be associated with the large
level in 1998. Simplecomparisonof the mid 1997 and mid 1999 areaof coolingcenteredin Baffin Bay and coveringmuchof the
MonthlyMean GlobalSurfaceTemperature
1.0
ß Meteorological
Stations
-"i
...............
l................
I
G •8 ••o•
•Land-Ocean
Temperature
Index ,•• ]
-- , --I- -- I....
-i -
_b _:,, ____
.....i i
_....
i
_
-.2
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Figure 8. Monthlymeanglobalsurfacetemperature derivedfrommeteorological
stations
aloneandthe land-ocean
temperatureindexincorporating
the SSTsof Reynoldsand Smith[ 1994].
North AtlanticOcean. Suchcoolingmightbe associated with an strongasthecoolingin recentdecades.Presumably, therewaslittle

unusuallystrong cool phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation anthropogenic climateforcingin that era, indicatingthat such
[Hurrell,1995],a reductionin oceanheattransports whichhasbeen regionalcoolingcanoccurnaturally.
foundin climatemodelsimulations with increasing greenhouse Suchobserved multidecadal variabilityof temperaturehasbeen
gases [Manabe and Stouffer, 1995; G. Russell private described andanalyzedby Mann and Park [ 1994, 1996],Kushnir
communication, 1999] and suggested earlierby Broecker,et al. [1994], Schlesinger and Ramankutty[1994], andHurrell [1995],
(1985), or a tropospheric responseto greenhouse gas induced andthe association of variabilityin the North AtlanticOceanwith
stratospheric cooling[Shindellet al., 1999]. climatein EuropeandtheUnitedStateshaslongbeenrecognized
Examination of theobserved temperature changesuggeststhat [Walker,1932;vanLoonandRogers,1978]. Rodwellet al. [1999]
more than one mechanismprobablyis involvedin this climate haveshownthatclimatemodelsdrivenby observed SSTvariations
change.Foronething,thecoolingin theUnitedStatesis spatially can simulatesome observedvariationsof the atmospheric
separated from the North Atlanticcoolingby an areathat is not circulation,and Delworth et al. [1993, 1997] have shownthat an
cooling,as revealedmore clearlyin the seasonal temperature unforcedcoupledatmosphere-ocean modelcangenerateirregular
change shownin thebottompartof Plate4. Secondly, thecooling multidecadal oscillations
in the North Atlanticresembling those
in the United Statesis greatestin the summer,while the North observed.
Atlanticphenomenon associated withall of theaboveexplanations Systematicclimatemodel experimentsthat examinedifferent
is primarilya wintereffect.Finally,thecoolingin theUnitedStates forcingmechanisms onebyoneshould behelpfulfor understanding
occurred mainlyin theperiod1930-1970,whilethecoolingin the thesepastclimatechanges andthusfor anticipating futurechange.
North Atlanticwasgreatestafter 1960. Experiments drivenby observed SSTsfor 1951-1997[Hansenet al.,
Onecandidate mechanism for summer coolingis anthropogenic 1999]indicatethat the SST patternsalone,withoutanyexplicit
tropospheric aerosols;indeed, thespatialdistributionof increasing radiativeforcings,causea coolingin theUnitedStatescomparable
anthropogenic sulfateaerosols in theperiod1950-1998[D. Koch, to thatobserved.Full analysis will requireexperiments with more
private
communication, 1999]coincides closely
withtheregionof fullyinteractive
ocean-atmosphere coupling,butit should
beeasyto
summer cooling.Karl et al. [ 1995]haveshownempirical
evidence quantifythecontributionsof differentoceanregionsvia additional
forcooling
in several
regions aroundtheworldwithheavyaerosol experimentswith specified
geographically limitedSST anomalies.
loadings.
However,we suggest cautiontowardattributing
a As coolingin theUnitedStatesseemsto bepartlyassociated
with
dominant
roleto aerosols
fortheUnitedStates
cooling.
Thestrong coolingin theNorthAtlantic,andevidencefromthepastfewyears
SST anomaliesoff the west coastof North Americaand in the North suggestsa warmingtrend in the North Atlantic (section9), it is
AtlanticOceanduringthe warmseason(Plate4) suggestthat tempting to suggestthattemperaturesin theUnitedStatesarelikely
accompanyingatmosphericcirculation
anomalies
playanimportant to risein thenextdecade.Figure6 alsosuggests thatUnitedStates
role. Althoughaerosolsmight be involvedin causingSST temperatures, afterbottomingoutin 1979,arenowintoa warming
anomalies,
otherforcingsandunforcedvariabilityare alsoviable trend. Continuation of that trend would make United States
candidates.
temperatures
moreconsistent
with observedglobalwarmingand
Anotherreasonto be cautiousin interpreting thesedecadal with the expectation from climatemodelsthat an increasing
climatevariationsis providedby Plate 5, which showssurface greenhouseeffectwill warmmiddle-latitude
landareasstrongly.
temperaturechangeduringseveralmultidecadal periods.Perhaps Possible
complications,•in
transient
regional
climatechange,
including
themostrelevantfeatureinPlate5 isthecoolingintheBaff'mBay changes in ocean circulation, dictate caution in such data
regionduringthe 1870-1900period,whichseemsto be at leastas interpretation,
especially
in theabsence
of a demonstrated
abilityto
Change of Temperature Index Based on Local Linear Trends

1950 •o 1998 Annual Mean .43
-2 -1.5 -1 -.5 -.3 -.1 .1 .3 .5 1 1.5 2.8
(b) 1950 to 1998 May-Oct .40 (c) 1950-51 to 1998-99 Nov-Apr .47
-2 -1.5 -1 -.5 -.3 -.1 .1 .3 .5 1 1.5 3.9 -2 -1.5 -1 -.5 -.3 -.1 .1 .3 .5 1 1.5 3.1
Plate4. Changeof surfacetemperatureindexfor theperiod1950-1998basedon locallineartrendsusingsurfaceair

temperature changeoverlandandSSTchangeovertheocean[Reynolds andSmith,1994],withthelattermeasured
for
theperiod1982-1998andcalculated on thebasisof shipmeasurements andan EOF analysis
for 1950-1981[Smithet
al., 1996]. (a) Basedonannualmeantemperatures;(b, c) resultsfor the(NorthernHemisphere)warm(May-October)
andcool (November-April)seasons.
simulate
andunderstand pastregional climatechanges. We conclude the warm periodthat peakedin 1940. The earlierwarmthoccurred
onlythat it is likely that the U.S. temperatures
will increasein the predominately at highlatitudesin theNorthernHemisphere,
peaking
nextdecade, whichwill makethemeantemperature at leastrivalthat at the North Pole. The recentwarmingencompasses essentiallyall
of the 1930s. latitudes,includingthe tropics.
Additionalperspectives
on regionaltemperature
changecanbe The oneexceptionto the strongwarmthin the 1990soccursin
obtainedfrom maps of temperatureanomaliesand trendsfor high southernlatitudes. We speculatedin section6.3 about the
arbitraryperiods. Such mapsare availablefrom our web site possibleinfluencethere of transientnegativeradiativeforcings,
(section10). specificallyvolcanicaerosolsand ozone depletion. However,
becauseof the large unforcedvariabilityof polar temperatures,an
8.2. Zonal Mean TemperatureChange
emphasison deterministicdescriptions of temperaturefluctuations
A concise perspective
onglobaltemperature changein thepast theremay be inappropriate.
centuryts providedby the zonal-meansurfaceair temperature Plate 7 provideshighertemporalresolutionfor the zonal-mean
anomalyas a functionof time (Plate 6). This presentation surfacetemperatureindex. The E1Ninos of the pasttwo decades
emphasizesthecontrastingnatures
of thecurrentglobalwarmthand are especiallyapparent. The 1983 and 1997-1998 E1 Ninos had
Surface Air Temperature Change Based on Local Linear Trends (øC)

1870-1900 -.05 1900-1938 .30
'"'•"
'..... i"9'70:'1'998
..................................... '53
-3 -2 -1 -.3 .3 1 2 3 4 -4 -3 -2 -1 -.3 .3 1 2 3 8.0
Plate5. Surfaceak temperature changefor theperiods1870-1900,1900-1938,1938-1970and 1970-1998basedon

locallineartrendsderivedfrom onlymeteorological
stationdata.
intensecores of warmth just south of the equator. However, throughouttheyear. At higherlatitudesthewarmingis largestin the
beginningwith the E1 Nino of 1986-1987, warmth has been winterand,especiallyat northernlatitudes,in the spring.
pervasiveat all tropicallatitudes,evenduringa time (1995-1996) Thereis a narrowbandof latitudesin the NorthernHemisphere,
when there was no E1 Nino in the usualsensewith a positive approximately30øN-40øN, for which the zonal mean surface
anomalyof SST in the easternequatorialPacificOcean. temperature exhibitspracticallyno warmingthroughouttheyear.It
The changeof surfacetemperatureas a functionof seasonand is apparentfrom Plate 4 that this is a combinationof warmingat
latitudeis illustratedby Plate8. In the tropicsthe warmingoccurs somelongitudesandcoolingat others. Coolingoccursin the North
90
Zonal Surface Air Temperature Anomaly
60
30-
-30 -
-60 -
i i ! i • i i _
-91•380 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
-3.6 -1 -.5 -.3 -.1 .1 .3 .5 1.6
Plate 6. Five yearrunningmeanof zonalsurfacetemperatureanomalysince1880 basedon surfaceair temperature

measurements at meteorological
stations At eachlatitudethe zeropointof temperature
is the 1951-1980mean.
Seasonal-Mean Zonal Surface Temperature Index

90 , I •
60 I½,,,' ! , '
o t ' , , ' '
-60
-910950
1, [ tt '
1960 1970
ti ' ' 1980 1990
' 20OO
-4.8 -1 -.5 -.3 -.1 .1 .3 .5 l 3.4

Plate7. Seasonal-mean zonalsurfacetemperature
indexsince1950,basedon theland-ocean
temperature
index. At each
latitudeandseasonthe zeropointof temperatureis the 1951-1980mean.
Pacific Ocean, the easternUnited States, and the Middle East, and seeseveralmeritsto the use of these6 monthperiodsin climate
thereis littletemperature
changein NorthernIndiaandChina. analyses. First, the use of six months,as opposedto shorter
intervals, minimizes the effect of weather noise in the climate
9. Year-to-Year RegionalTemperature Anomalies anomalies.Second,the useof only two seasonsper year makesa
practicalto comparesimultaneouslymany years,even decades,of
9.1. Cool Season and Warm Season Anomalies climatedata,as shownby Plates9a and9b.
We definethe (NorthernHemisphere)cool seasonas the six The Northern Hemispherecool seasonanomalies(Plate 9a)
months
November-Aprilandthewarmseason asMay-October.We illustrateinterannualand decadalchangesof temperaturein the
North Atlanticregiondiscussed by Kushnir [ 1994] as well as the
largerscaleArcticOscillationdiscussed by Thompsonand Wallace
[ 1998]. Note thatin theNorthernHemisphere cool seasonfor the
Surface Temperature Index past 3 years,CentralAsia hascontinuedto have warm anomalies
90
Change during 1950-1998 despiterelativewarmthin theNorthAtlanticandBaff'mBayregions.
It will be interestingto see if the patternof the past few years
continues, because it doesnotmatchwell with theusualtendency of
the Arctic Oscillationby itself;it may,however,be consistentwith
60
a combination of theArcticOscillationanda globalwarmingtrend
that is strongestin Asia.
The coolseasonandwarmseasonsurfacetemperature anomaly
3ø
I mapsalso definethe occurrenceand durationof E1 Ninos (1951,
1953, 1957-1958, 1963, 1965-1966, 1969, 1972-1973, 1976-1977,
1979-1980, 1982-1983, 1987-1988, 1991-1992, 1997-1998)and La
Ninas (1950, 1954-1956, 1961-1962, 1964, 1967-1968, 1970-1971,
1973-1974, 1975-1976, 1978, 1984-1985, 1988-1989, 1995-1996,
1998-1999). Specification of an E1Nino or La Nina occurrenceis
-30 somewhatarbitrary,as the surfacetemperatureanomaliesin the
tropical Pacific Ocean cover a continuousrange, but for most
applications,
thischoiceis probablymadebeston the basisof such
-60 ß temperatureanomalymaps.
The temperature anomalymapsin Plates9a and9b showthatthe
La Ninasin the pasttwo decadeshave beenunusuallyweak and
illustrate the well-known fact that the E1 Ninos of 1983 and 1997-
J F M A M J J A S 0 N
1998 were very strongin the easternand centralPacific Ocean.
Thesemapsalsorevealthat someE1 Ninos,particularlythoseof
-2.4 -1 -.5 -.3 -.1 .1 .3 .5 1 2.1 1957-1958, 1969, 1972-1973, 1987-1988, and 1997-1998, were
accompaniedby unusually
hightemperatures in theAtlanticand/or
Plate 8. Zonalmeanchangeof surfacetemperature
indexduring Indian Oceans,whichaccountsfor the magnitudeof the tropical
1950-1998 as a function of month. zonal-meanwarmthfor thoseyearsin Figure7.
November-April Surface Temperature Anomalies (øC)

1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s
1950-51 -.20 1960-61 08 1970-71 -.11 1980-81 .31 1990-91 .40
1951-52 .08 1961-62 .09 1971-72 -.12 1981-82 .11 1991-92 .27
1952-53 .11 1962-63 .04 1972-73 .18 1982-83 .30 1992-93 .17
1953-54 -.04 1963-64 -.10 1973-74 -.14 1983-84 ß16 1993-94 .13
•:I - l '"'l I I''
1954--'
S••' -.06 1964-65 -.19 1974-75 -.03 1984-85 ß01 1994-95 .44
1955-56 -•;• l•OO-oo -.06 1975-76 -.21 1985-86 .20 1995-96 .31
1956-57 -.06 1966-67 -.07 1976-77 .01 1986-87 .20 1998-97 .36
19,.67-58 .18 1967-68 -.04 1977-78 .07 1987-88 .39 1997-98 .61
1958-59 .11 1968 69 -.09 1978-79 ß02 1988-89 .15 1998-99 .46
l
ß o
19•9-60 -08 1969-70 .13 1979-80 .22 1989-90
lll
-1 -. . ,5.1
Plate 9a. Surfacetemperatureanomaliesfor the (NorthernHemisphere)

cool seasonfor the pastfive decades.
May-October Surface Temperature Anomalies (øC)

1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s
i950 -.It 1960 -.OZ 1970 -.01 1980 .14 1990
I-- ' l-- • I-- I'--
1951 .08 1961 .11 1971 --.06 1981 .23 1991 .40
1952 .07 1962 .07 1972 .05 1982 .07 1992
•-• ' .. . t• '
1953 . 12 1963 . 16 1973 ß07 1983 .25 1993 .08
1954
'•' -.11
1964
•{-- , .-.22
1•74 -.04
19•4 .15
1994
1955 -.04 1965 --.10 1975 --.09 1985 .11 1995 .36
1986 .10 1996 .28
1957 09 1967 .04 1977 .12 1987 .28 1997 .41
1958 -.02 1968 -.05 1978 -.01 1988 .32 1998 .60
1959 -.02 1969 .02 1979 .06 1989 .26
. . "4 _a
Plate 9b. Surfacetemperature

anomalies
for the(NorthernHemisphere)
warmseason
for thepast
five decades.
(a) Annual Temperature Anomalies(øC)

1998 58
-4 -3 -2 -1 -.3 .3 1 2 3 4.3
(b) SeasonalTemperatureAnomalies(øC)
Dec-Jan-Feb, 1997-98 .61 Mar-Apr-May, 1998 60
--- i
. c,.,......_.•'•'' ' " """

-L._ [•' -,..
:
Jun-Jul-Aug,
: 1998 66 Sep-Oct-Nov, 1998 .43
[ I
Dec-Jan-Feb, 1998-99 .56 Mar-Apr-May, 1999 .29
Jun-Jul-Aug, 1999 .28
II
-5.4 -3 -2 -1 -.3 .3 1 2 3 6.9
, ,,
Plate 10. The 1998 and 1999 temperatureanomalies:

(a) annual,(b) six seasons.
HANSEN ET AL.: GISS ANALYSIS OF SURFACE TEMPEILATU• CHANGE 31,015
Anotherpossibleuse of suchmapsis to heuristicallycompare The firsthalfof 1999hascooledconsiderably from 1998(Figures

anomaliesin one regionwith anomaliesin otherregions. Possible 7, 8 andPlates9a, 9b and 10). The globaltemperature anomalyfell
relationships can be investigatedstatisticallywith the full data set to about 0.3øC in March-May 1999 (Figure 7), with low
andmechanistically by comparingthe observedtemperatures with temperatures in theequatorialPacificOcean(Plate 10) whichcanbe
ensembles of globalclimatesimulationsfor differentatmospheric and expectedto leadto low globaltropospheric temperatures.However,
surfaceforcings. thecoolPacificOceanonlyenhances theplanetary
energyimbalance
Finally,we notethatthe coolandwarmseasons canbe averaged [Hansen et al., 1997, 1999] which tends to increase surface
to yield an annual(November-October) temperatureanomalythat temperature.The presentcool surfacetemperaturein the Pacific
probablyservesjust aswell for annualmeananalyses aseitherthe Ocean is somewhatanalogousto that of the mid-1970s, which
meteorological year (December-November) or the calendaryear persistedabout3 years(Plates9a, 9b), but the temperaturewas
(January-December). Figure 9 shows that the global mean lower thenand the radiativeforcingwas less. We thusanticipate
temperatureanomalyhaslittle dependence on thischoice. that the globalsurfacetemperaturewill returnto highervaluesand
averageat least0.5øCrelativeto the 1951-1990meanoverthe next
9.2. The 1998 and 1999 Temperatures 2-3 years. At this level the period beginningin 1998 would
A globalmap of the surfacetemperatureanomalyfor 1998 is representan increasecomparableto that whichoccurredin the late
1970s.
shownin Plate 10. The strongE1Nine of 1997-1998[McPhaden,
1999] contributesto the recordglobaltemperature,but the global Recentdata for 1999 (June-July-August, Plate 10) has a few
warmthis too strongto be accountedfor solelyby the E1 Nine. warm placesover the ocean,especiallyat middlenorthernlatitudes
Figure7 andpreviousanalyses [Jones,1989;Angell, 1990]indicate in the Atlantic,andan interesting"AfricanE1Nino" at 5øS(similar,
weaker, such features occurred with the La Ninas of 1984 and 1988
that E1 Nines typicallyincreaseglobalmeantemperatureby only
about0.2øC,the amountby whichthe 1998 temperatureexceeded (comparePlates9a and 9b)). However, relativelycool water has
the previoushightemperature in the pastcentury.Thusthe 1998 spreadovermuchof the PacificOcean,sothat,accordingto climate
globaltemperature wouldhavebeenat or neara recordvaluefor the modelcalculations (Hansenet al., 1999),the oceanandthe planetas
periodof instrumentalmeasurements evenwithoutthe E1Nine. a whole are in a mode of soakingup heat.
Theglobalwarmthof 1998wasalsotoopervasive geographically
to be solely the result of an E1 Nine (Plate 10). The surface 10. Data Products
temperature wasunusually highthroughouttheAtlanticOceanand
theIndianOceanandoverall of thecontinents exceptAntarctica. All of our data (exceptthe stationrecords)are in the form of
The Arctic north efNerth America was about 3øC above the 1951- anomaliesrelativeto the 1951-1980 meantemperature.We work
1980mean. The temperature justsouthof Greenlandandin Baffm with anomaliesbecausethe monthly temperatureanomaly is
Bay was well above normal, consistentwith indicationsfrom the representative of a muchlargerarea,to distances of the order of
previous two years(Plates9a and9b) thatthelongextendedcold 1000 km or more at middle and high latitudes(HL87), than the
phaseof the North Atlantic Oscillation[Kushnir, 1994; Hurtell, absolutetemperature.Thus area-averaged temperatureanomalies
1995] has drawn to a close. can be def'medmore accuratelythan the area-averagedabsolute
Global Annual-Mean TemperatureAnomalies

,
I I I I I •
•'
.6- ..... • ..... cool season + warm season
.4 - - o--- meteorological
year
/-
• - ---,----calendar
year
• .2-
.0 I / -
.4
-'½880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Figure 9. Annualmeantemperature
anomalies
for coolseason
pluswarmseason(November-October),
meteorological
year (December-November),
andcalendaryear(January-December).
31,016 HANSEN ET AL.: GISS ANALYSIS OF SURFACE TEMPE•T• CHANGE
temperature.
Furthermore, sinceanomalies
aresufficientto define 11. Discussion
climatechange,for manypurposesanomalies
areall thatis needed.
Estimatesof global climatologiesof absolutetemperatureare 11.1. Global warming
available fromShea[1986],Legatesand Willmort[1990],andJones We discussobservedglobal temperaturechangeof the past
et al. [ 1999]. century,the past25 yearsandthe pasttwo years.
We recommendthat our data only be used for applications 11.1.1. The past century: Observedglobalwarmingon the
requiringtemperature change,not absolutetemperature.However, centurytime scaleis unambiguous and unusual. We estimatethat
for the sakeof userswho needan estimateof absoluteglobalmean the 5 year meanglobalsurfacetemperaturehas increasedabout
temperature, we pointout thatan approximation of time-dependent 0.7øCsincethe late 1800s. The currentglobalwarmthis not onlya
globaltemperaturecan be obtainedby addinga constantto our recordfor theperiodof instrumental databut alsothewarmestlevel
globaltemperatureanomaly. The value 14øCwas obtainedas a in at least the past few centuries[Mann et al., 1998; Jonesand
typicalglobalmean surfaceair temperaturein the GISS global Bradley, 1992]. Although it becomesincreasinglydifficult to
climatemodelwhenit is run with observedseasurfacetemperatures reconstruct accuratelytheglobalmeantemperaturefor earliertimes,
[Hansenet al., 1997]. A globalmeantemperatureof 14øCis also currenttemperatures mustbe at leastcomparableto thoseof the
obtainedby Joneset al. [1999] whentheyintegratetheir absolute climaticoptimumthat occurrednear 1100 AD [Hughesand Diaz,
surfaceair temperature climatologyovertheglobe. Althoughthese 1994]. Indeed,Mann et al. [1999] argue that the 1998 global
estimatesof absoluteglobalmeantemperatureare not accurateto temperaturewas probablyhigher than any earlier time in this
0.1øC, for the sakeof consistency betweenthe Jonesdata andthe millenium.
GISS data, one can add 13.9øCto our temperatureanomaliesand The issueabout whether global warming might be largely a
14øC to the Jones anomalies. The reason for this is that we define figment of nonclimatic influences on the thermometersat
our anomaliesrelativeto the baseperiod 1951-1980, while Jones meteorologicalstations[Ellsaesseret al., 1986] hasbeensettled.
clef'roes his relativeto 1961-1990, and the meantemperaturefor The fact that warmingis essentiallythe same for rural stations
1961-1990 is 0.1 øC warmer than for 1951-1980. (populationless than 10,000) as for all stationswould not be
Our data are available over the web site of the NASA Goddard convincingby itself,becausenonclimatichumaneffectscan exist
Institutefor SpaceStudies(www.giss.nasa.gov/data/update/ even in small towns. However, there is extensive additional
gistemp/).Datasetscanbe downloaded directlyfromthewebor via evidence. The simplestevidenceis the globaldistributionof the
ftp. In addition,the following displaysof the data, which are warming(Plate 4). Not only doesthe largestwarmingoccurin
updatedregularly,are availablefrom our website. remoteoceanandhigh-latituderegions,wherelocal humaneffects
are minimal,but the geographicalpatternsof warmingrepresent
10.1. Global Mean Graphs climaticphenomena, not patternsof humandevelopment.Borehole
Linegraphsareprovidedfor theglobalmonthlymean,seasonal temperatureprofriesfrom hundredsof locationsaroundthe world
mean,andannualmeantemperature anomalies. A tentativeestimate havebeenusedto infera meanwarmingof 0.5ø-0.6øCbetweenthe
of the seasonal anomalyis estimatedwhenthe firsttwo monthsof 1800sand the 1980s[Harris and Chapman,1997; Pollack et al.,
dataare available,anda tentativeannualanomalyis estimatedwhen 1998]. Analysisof thenear-global meltbackof mountainglacierson
three seasons of data are available. the centurytime scaleyieldsan estimatedglobalwarmingrate of
0.66øC/century [Oerlemans,1994]. Theseconfuminganalyses are
10.2. Global Maps not influencedby urbaneffects.
11.1.2. The past 25 years: Global surfacetemperaturehas
Globalmapsof temperature anomalies areavailable for monthly, increased at a rate of about 0.2øC/decade since the mid-1970s.
seasonal andannualperiods.The usercanalsoobtainthe average
Globalwarmingof 0.5øCin 25 yearsis at leasthighlyunusualin the
of thesemapsover an arbitraryperiod. The baseperiodfor
past millenniumand may be unprecedented [Mann et al., 1999;
calculatinganolmalies can be specifiedto be differentthan the
Hughesand Diaz, 1994;JonesandBradley, 1992]. The observed
defaultperiod,1951-80.
warming rate of 0.2øC/decadeis just that calculateddue to
A secondglobalmapprovidedisthetemperature changeoveran
increasinggreenhouse gasesin globalclimatemodelexperiments
arbitrary period,analogous to Plate4. Thelocaltemperature change
with greenhouse gasscenarios(slowgrowth,scenarioB) thatmatch
is basedonthelocallineartrendof temperature usingall yearsin the
observedgreenhousegas changes[Hansen et al., 1998a]. The
periodof interest.The calculations, whichare doneon our local
observedwarmingis less than the 0.3ø-0.4øC/decade in IPCC
web server,requireseveralseconds.
"businessas usual"scenarios[IPCC, 1995] or the 0.3øC/decadein
10.3. Animations thefastgrowthscenarioA of Hansenet al. [ 1988],buttheclimate
forcingsin thosescenarios
exceedthe climateforcingin the real
Animationsof the globaltemperatureanomalies are availableon world [Hansen et al., 1998a].
thebasisof monthlytemperature data. Theserequirethattheuser's The issueaboutglobalsurfacewarmingof the pasttwo decades
computerbeequippedwith softwarefor displaying animations. hasbeenthat it appearsto be at oddswith a slightcoolingin the
lowertroposphere measured by satellites
for theperiod1979-1997
10.4. Station Data
[Christyet al., 1998;Joneset al., 1997b;Hurrell and Trenberth,
The stationdatacanbe obtainedby specifyinga locationnameor 1998]. We believe this apparent discrepancyarises from a
pointinga cursorat a globalmap. In thelattercase,a listof stations combinationof several factors. First of all, tropical surface
appears orderedby distancefromthespecified point. Afterclicking temperatures increasedonly slowlybetween1979 and 1997, as
on oneof thesestations,a newlist appearsorderedby distancefrom shown by Figure 7; thus we would not expect the global
the chosenstation.The usercanthenchooseto view eithera single troposphere, drivenby risingair in the tropics,to showmuch
stationrecordor the recordsfor the primarystationplusa specified warmingin thatperiod. The globalsurfacetemperature increased
numberof neighbors.The stationdata are also availablevia our between1979 and 1997, but muchof the surfacewarmingin that
Common Sense Climate Index, where for the urban stations, both periodoccurredin thecoolseasonat highlatitudes(Plate5), where
the homogeneity-adjusted andunadjusted recordsare provided. stablelapseratescausethetropospheric response to bemuchreduce
[Hurrell and Trenberth,1996]. Anotherspecialfactorin the past probablyall that is neededto begin to make global warming
two decades hasbeenozonedepletion,whichcoolsthetroposphere noticeableto the perceptivelay person[Hansenet al., 1998c].
slightlymorethanit coolsthesurface[Hansenet al., 1995,1997]. 11.2. Regional temperature change. Regionalpatternsof
Thus if one fixateson the period 1979-1997, a qualitative climate change have more practical impact than global mean
differencebetweenthe surfaceand the satellitetemperaturetrends temperaturechange. A principalchallengeis to determinehow
is notsurprising.Bothtemperature trendsarelimitedin magnitude muchof observed regionalclimatechangeis a deterministicresponse
becausethis periodexcludesthe largerisesin temperaturethat to climateforcingsandhowmuchis unforcedvariability.Of course,
occurredin the late 1970s and in 1998. The tropospheric this distinctiondependsupon the timescaleconsideredand thus
temperature
changein 1979-1997is limitedby the smalltropical whetherfactorssuchas oceantemperaturecan be consideredas
surfacetemperature
changeandby ozonedepletion.Giventhis forcings. Our objective is to provide data that can be used
situation,even smallmeasurement
errorscan add to real differences convenientlyin analysesof observedclimatechange.
betweenthe surfaceandthe tropospheric trendsand havea large We emphasizethe meritsof analyzingthe climatechangeof the
qualitativeimpacton their comparison. The satelliterecordis past50 years,a timewhenclimateforcingsareknownbestandhave
affectedby the difficultyin homogenizing the recordfromseveral a rapidrate of change. Observedclimatechangeof the pastseveral
satellitesthat drift throughthe diurnalcycleand decayin altitude decades includes substantial
surfacewarmingthroughout the tropics.
[Christyet al., 1998; Wentzand Schabel,1998; Hurrell and There has been even greater warming in Siberia and Alaska,
Trenberth, 1997, 1998; Hansen et al., 1998b], and the surface especiallyin the winter and early spring,yet the Arctic has only
recordis affectedby variousmeasurement
andsamplingerrors,as recentlyapproachedthe temperatures that it achievedin the 1930s.
discussed above. There hasbeena moderatecoolingtrendaroundGreenlandandin
Thesedifficultiescan be minimizedby extendingthe periodof the easternUnitedStatesduringthe pasthalf century,but mostof
analysis.Extensionof thetroposphericrecordbackto even1975 the coolingin the United Statesoccurredbetweenabout 1940 and
capturesa greatertemperature change. Althoughradiosonde 1960. On the basisof thedifferentseasonalities
andtimeperiodsof
measurements have their own problems[Gaffen, 1994], reliable these changes,we have argued that there is more than one
extension
of tropospherictemperatures
certainly
canbemadeat least phenomenon involvedin thisregionalcooling. Changesof Pacific
backto 1975, whichis sufficientto reveala strongpositivetrend. OceanSSTsprobably playeda largerolein causing
thecoolingtrend
Similarly,additionof datafor 1998andbeyondaddsto theclimate in the United States.
change.With detailedanalysis
includingtheseextensions of the We suggestthatwarmingin theUnitedStatesis likelyin thenext
recordwe expectthatthesurfaceandtroposphericdatawill be in decade,makingthemeantemperature at leastrivalthatof the 1930s.
muchbetterqualitative
agreementabouttheexistence of long-term However,thisinferenceis basedto a largedegreeon the fact that
warming. Remainingquantitativedifferences,
after instru-mental the U.S. temperaturehas laggedthe global mean temperature,
measurementproblemsare minimized,are a potentiallyvaluable contraryto expectations with globalwarming,andon the modest
sourceof informationon the workingsof the climatesystem. We warmingtrend that has occurredsince the 1970s. A more
cautionthatexploitation
of thispotentialinformationrequiresnot substantivepredictionof regionalclimatechangerequiresthat we
onlygoodtemperature measurements, butalsomeasurements of all firstdemonstrate
anabilityto simulateandanalyzeregionalchanges
the majorclimateforcings[Hansenet al., 1998a]. of the past.
11.1.3. The pasttwo years: Themagnitude of globalwarming
in 1998is noteworthy.Previous "record"globaltemperatures, for
theperiodof instrumental
data,weresetin 1980,1981,1988,1990, Appendix: Data Comparisons
and 1995,butin thesecasestheprevious recordusuallywasbroken
We illustratea few checksandcomparisons for our globaland
by only a few hundredths of a degreeCelsius. The global
UnitedStatestemperature changeanalysis.Suchcomparisons do
temperature of 1998broketheprevious recordbyalmost0.2øC.
not yield a measureof absoluteerror, whichis difficultif not
Theglobaltemperature of 1998wasundoubtedly influenced by
impossibleto specify
becauseof inherent
andcommon limitationsof
thestrongE1Ninothatwaspresent in thefirsthalfof 1998,andthe
availabledata. However, they provideconsistency checksand
influenceof E1Ninoson globaltemperature hasbeenfoundto lag
addressquestionsthatweaskedourselves andthatothersarelikely
the E1 Nino by up to six months[Pan and Oort, 1983; Jones, to ask about our data.
1994a]. Nevertheless,
we arguethattherecentwarmingprobably
representsa jump to a significantly higher level of global
temperature.Althoughour estimateof globaltemperature in the A1. ComparisonWith JonesData.
most recentseasonis only about 0.3øC, we expect the global PlateA1 compares
ourdatawiththatof Joneset al. [ 1999],with
temperature to averageabout0.5øCor higher,relativeto 1951- the latter labeled"Jones"in our figures. The Jonesdata are a
1980, withinthe next 2 or 3 years. combination of the landdataanalysisof Jones[1994b] and ocean
Confu'mationof such a high temperaturelevel will have dataof Parker et al. [1995a], as describedby Joneset al. [1999].
significancethat extendsbeyond the questionof short-term The ocean data in the Jones data set are MOHSST6D
temperaturerecords. Such a high temperaturelevel shouldbe (Meteorological OfficeHistoricalSeaSurface Temperature, version
issueof whetherglobalwarming 6D), thus both the land and the oceanportionsare basedon
sufficientto settlethe contentious
is occurringduringthe satelliteera, regardlessof measurement observations withoutfillingof datavoidsviaprincipalcomponent or
problems. More generally,maintenance of sucha high global empirical orthogonal function
analyses.ForGISSdataweshowour
temperatureover 2 or 3 yearswill representa "smokinggun," analysis basedononlymeteorological stationsandthecombination
providingboth scientificand practicalconfkmationthat global of our data over land with GISST3.0 SST data [Parker et al.,
warmingin the industrialera is unnatural. Scientifically,such 1995a]. The ocean data in this latter case (GISST3.0) have
continuedwarmthwill makethe presentclimateclearlythe warmest nominallythe samesourceas the oceandata of Jones,but data
of the millennium,with the greatestwarming rate, exceeding interpolation andsmoothing werenecessarilyemployed inproducing
previousepochssuchasthe "MedievalClimaticOptimum"[Mann theGISST climatology, whichis designed to be globallycomplete
et al., 1999]. Practically,warmingof a few tenthsof a degreeis as suitable for climate models.
31,018 HANSENET AL.: GISSANALYSISOF SURFACETEMPERATURECHANGE
Plate Ala showsthat the globalmeantemperaturechangesin intercomparison.

Evidencein supportof the long-termchangeis
theseanalyses areverysimilar.Differences amongthethreecurves discussed in section 11.1.
areshownon anexpanded scalein PlateAlb. In thelandplusocean A2. Urban Adjustment and U.S. Data.
analyses theJonesandGISS + GISST resultsdifferby asmuchas
0.1øCin onlyoneyear, 1941. It is evidentfromthe globalmapof We examinehere the sensitivityof our analyzedtemperature
the differencefor 1941 (Plate Alc) that it arisesnot from the land changeto theurbanadjustment, especiallyfor the UnitedStates.We
but ratherfrom the ocean. This is presumably associated
with poor presentresultsfor the calendaryear,January-December, ratherthan
data coverageor quality during World War II, althoughthat the meteorological year as in Figure6, thusallowinga test of the
observation by itselfdoesnot provewhichoceananalysis is more sensitivityto thatchoiceandhelpingcomparisonwith otherresults
accurate. that employthe calendaryear,suchasthoseof Bell et al. [ 1999].
Largerdifferences occurbetweenthe GISS analysisbasedon There is a high densityof stationsin the United Statesin the
only meteorological stationsand either of the land plus ocean GHCN network, which includes the USHCN stations, with more
than 1000 stations since about 1900. For most of the twentieth
analyses, asexpected,yetin mostyears,thedifferences arelessthan
or of the orderof 0.1øC. An instructivecaseis providedby 1981, century,55-60% of the U.S. stationsare rural (populationlessthan
whichis the year with the largestdifferencebetweenthe GISS 10,000), about20% are smalltown (populationlessthan50,000),
stationanalysisandthe Jonesland plusoceananalysisduringthe and 20-25% are urban. However, in the f'mal(near-realtime) year
pasthalfcentury,with theGISS landanalysis 0.15øCwarmerthan of data,beforeUSHCN dataare available,the urbanproportionof
the Joneslandplusoceanresult. The greatestcontributionto this stationsjumpsto about50-55%.
differencecomesfrom the North PacificOcean,wherea regionof PlateA2a showsthe temperaturechangefor the contiguous 48
low temperature isentirelymissedbythemeteorological stationsand stateson the basisof onlyrural stations,rural plussmalltown, all
replacedby hightemperatures extrapolated from Alaska,Hawaii, stationswith no urbancorrection,andall stationswith homogeneity-
andnortheastRussia. It alsoappearsthat part of the largerglobal correctionof urban stations(section5). The temperaturecurve,
warmthin the GISS stationanalysis,perhaps0.05øC, arisesfrom basedon rural stations,is not affectedmuchby additionof small-
extrapolation of warmanomalies into the ArcticandAntarctic;on town or urbandata. The exceptionis the 1998 temperature,which
would rival the 1934 record without the urban correction. Because
the basisof meteorological patternsof the anomalies,it is possible
that this portion of the higher GISS estimatemay be valid. the proportionof urbanstations jumpsfrom 20% in 1997to 55% in
Nevertheless, the 1981 exampleillustratesthat occasionalerrors 1998, the urbancorrectionis important.
exceeding 0.1øCin estimated globaltemperature areinherentif the The eftbct of the urban adjustmenton regional temperature
input to the global analysisis restrictedto land data. This is changeover the period 1950-1998 is shownin Plate A2b. The
consistent with the uncertaintybarsin our Figure4. globalaverageeffectof the urbanadjustmentis only 0.01øCover
Systematicdifferencesin the analysesearly in the twentieth this period, but there are severalnoticeableregionalchanges. In
centuryandin thelate 1800saverageonlyabout0.1øC. The spatial general,we cannotbe confidentin the validityof the adjustment in
samplingfor bothlandandoceanis muchpoorerthen,whichmust any specificregion,becauseof the possibilityof errorsin the rural
contribute to the increaseddifferencesamong the data sets. station data and regional variability of temperaturechange,as
However,therearealsosystematic difficulties
withoceandata,such discussed in section5. We are reasonablyconfidentin the natureof
as changingbucket corrections[Parker et al., 1995], so it is the adjustmentin the United States,which increasesthe coolingin
impossible to be certainwhichdatasetmoreaccuratelyrepresents the Southeastanddecreases thewarmingin the Southwest.But the
thedecadalglobalmeantemperature change.Ratherwe emphasize fact that the adjustmentis not negligiblesuggests
the desirability
of
that the differentrecordsof global temperaturechangeare very trying and comparingalternativeapproachesfor removingurban
similaroverall[Plate Ala], with the centurytimescaletemperature influence.A promisingapproachinitiatedby Gallo et al. [1999] is
changebeingmuchlargerthanthe variationsamongthe datasets. to use satelliteobservationsof land use to def'methe degree of
Finally,we compareJonesdata for the 1990swith GISS plus humaninfluenceon eachstation. This will be particularlyusefulff
GISST andwith GISS plusReynoldset al. [1994] in thelowertwo it is possible to definea rateof changeof the humaninfluence
around each station.
rows of Plate A lc to investigatethe systematicallypositive
differences in Plate A1 b. The difference between Jones and GISS Althoughtheinfluence of theurbancorrectionis moderate,
even
plusGISST occursmainlyover'land,averaging only0.02øCglobally. in the UnitedStates,the impliedcorrectionto the urbanrecords
That differencearisesbecausethe Jonesdata does not average themselvesis larger. Urban warming in the United States
exactlyto zero overthebaseperiod. The reason,at leastin part, is presumably
accounts
f•r theupward
trendof temperature
foundby
that zero meansare enforcedstationby stationfor that portion of Gaffenand Ross[1998, 1999],who employNationalWeather
1961-1990 with data, and some stations have data only for a Service"first-orderstations"that arepredominatelyurban.Sucha
relativelycoolpartof theperiod(say 1961-1980)(P. Jones,private stationselectionis appropriate
for the objectiveof describing
communication, 1999). In anycase,0.02øCis smallrelativeto the conditionswheremostpeoplelive. It maybe usefulto have,in
climatechangemattersof interest. The differencebetweenJones addition,similarstudiesfbr areasthat arerelativelyundisturbed by
andGISS plusReynoldsfor the 1990sis larger,about0.08øC. As local human influence. Station selection presumably also
shownby thelastrow in PlateAlc muchof thisarisesfromthehigh- intluencesthe resultsof Bell et al. [1999], who reportthe United
latitudeoceananalyses, wherethemare differences
in the treatment Statesasbeingaswarmin the 1990sasin the 1930s,buttheydo
of sea ice, as discussedin section7.1. Also, 0.02øC of the 0.08øC not characterize their station selection.
arisesfrom displacement
of the base period mean, as discussed In summary,we have not found any evidencethat would
above. qualitatively
alterourconclusionsaboutglobalwarming inthepast
Overall,we concludethat the differencesamongthe analysesare centuryor coolingin theUnitedStates
between the 1930sandthe
small compared with the long-term temperature change, as 1970s. However,urbaneffectsare nonnegligible,andstudiesof
illustratedby Plate Ala. Given the commonalityof muchof the currentclimate trendsneed to pay close attentionto station
inputdata,thesimilarityof theresultsdoesnot provethevalidityof selection.We encourage
researchaimedat improved definition
and
the long-term changes,and such is not the intent of this removal of urban influences.
- • Jones(Land + SST)
........... GISS (Station Dam)
...... GISS (Land + GISST)
-.4
1880 19'00 19'20.... i9'40' '
base
period:
1961-1990 (a)
1
19'60' 19'80 ' 2000
o,,.,, : I I I '. ' ' '
-'...... i.........
i.....
;---t
........
.....
;½ ..........
"'--';-'-i"i.
ij;;';i
......
•o-.1 .......
: ....
i-r:- ' ß
.....i .................................
-•-4
..........
,-, -.2 - ,, : , Jones- GISS (StationData).......
8. i i i ...........
JonesGISS(Land+GlSST)
• - 0 19'00 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
(C) Jones GISS Jones - GISS
1941 .06 1941 [+GISST] -.12 1941 .21
I•. •- "• . .
ß
-i•
, .
19•1 .14 •98 • stg•i'o• r>•t• .29 1981 -.lO
..:• .- .."% •-
1990-98 .32 1990-98 [+GISST] .a9 1990-98 .02
1990-98 .32 1990-98 [+Reynolds] .24 1990-98 .08
-3.3 -1-.5-.2 .2 .5 1 2 3.4-3-2-1-.5-.2 .2 .5 1 2 3-3-2-1-.5-.2 .2 .5 1 2 3

PlateA1. (Opposite)
(a)Jonesland
plusoceantempermum change
analysis
[Jonesetal.,1999],
ourresult
basedon
meteorological
stations,
andthecombination
ofourdataforlandareas
withGISST3.0 SSTdata.Inallcases
thebase
period
is1961-1990.
(b)Differences
oftheJonesdataandtheothertwoanalyses
inPlateA1. (c)MapsoftheJones
andGISSplusGISSTdatafor1941,
JonesandGISSmeteorological
station
data
for1981,JonesandGISSplusGISST
for1990-1998
mean,
andJones
andGISSplusReynolds
etal. [1994]for1990-1998
mean.Theglobal
mean
numbers
inthetopright-hand
corner
arebased
onthearea-weighted
four-zonal-band
means(section
6.3);theresult
forJones
-
GISS refers to the common area.
31,020 HANSEN ET AL.: GISS ANALYSIS OF SURFACE TEMPE•TU• CHANGE
(a) U.S. Mean Temperature (b) 1950-1998 Temperature Change (øC)

Rural
.48
15.
ß I i. , i. • I , I { I
o..,-
ß -•-i- ......., - -[i• --,"---'•--~-"•t-'-•t-
-- ,-
:" ""
/ .....
•--I-10 ..... r-'i-..
I t.............
.-a'•t•'"
•--, L 4.......
' '4 '-ffl .... t.....
i900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Rural + Small Town
-.03
1.5
1.o
.o
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Rural + Small Town + Unadjusted Urban

.09 .61
•-1
5• , • , • , • • • , •
[•0 1920 1940 !• 2980 20•
Rural + Small Town + Adjusted Urban
- O0 .5O
"Sl I t I
i ' i '
t
F 1.0....L....... [.........
$..o
•-1.0 ,.............
.1 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
ß$ I 1.5 2.82.1-1. -1 -.2 -.el -.1 .1 .3 .fi 1 1.õ IL8
Plate A2. (a) Annualand5 yearrunning-mean surfaceair temperature for thecontiguous

48 UnitedStatesrelativeto
the 1951-1980meanfor severalchoices
of stationdata. (b) Changeof surfacetemperature
for 1950-1998basedon local
linear trends for the same four choices of station data.
References modelsimulation,Geophys.Res.Lett.. 24, 257-260, 1997.

Easterling,
DR., T.C. Peterson,
andT.R. Karl,On thedevelopment anduse
Ange!l,J.K.,Variationin globaltropospheric
temperature afteradjustmentfor of homogenizedclimatedatasets,
d. Chin., 9. 1429-1434,1996.
theEl Ninoinfluence, 1958-89.Geophys.Res.Left..17, 1093-1096,1990. EIIsaesser,H.W., M.C. McCracken, J.J. Walton, and S.L. Grotch, Global
Bell,G.D., M.S. Halpert,C.F. Ropelewski,
V.E. Kousky,A.V. Douglas, R.C. climatictrendsasrevealed
bytherecorded
data,Rev.Geophys.,
24, 745-
Schnell, and M.E. Gelman, Climate assessmentfor 1998, Bull. Am. 792, 1986.
Meteorol. Soc.. 80, S 1-S48, 1999. Foiland,C.K., T. Karl,andK. Y. Vinnikov,ClimateChange1992,TheIPCC
Bradley,R.S., and P.D. Jones,'Little Ice Age' summertemperature Supplementary Report,editedbyJ.T. Houghton, B.A. Callander,
andS.K.
variations:
theirnatureandrelevanceto recentglobalwarmingtrends,The Varney,200 pp., CambridgeUniv. Press,New York, 1992.
Holocene.3, 367-376, 1993 Gafi•n, D.J., Temporalinhomogeneities in radiosonde
temperaturerecords,
Broecker,W.S., D.M. Peteet,and D. Rind, Doesthe ocean-atmosphere d. Geophys.Res.,99, 3667-3676, 1994.
systemhavemorethanonestablemodeof operation?, Nature.315,21-26, Gaffen, D.J., and R.J. Ross, Increasedsummertimeheat stressin the US,
1985. Nature. 396, 529-530, 1998.
Christy,J.R., R.W. Spencer,and E.S. Lobl, Analysisof the merging Gaffen,D.J.,andR.J. Ross,Climatologyandtrendsof U.S. surfacehumidity
procedure
for theMSU dailytemperature
timeseries,if. Clim.,I 1, 2016- andtemperature,d. Clim., 12, 811-828, 1999.
2041, 1998. Gallo, K.P., T.W. Owen, D.R. Eaterling,and P.F. Jamason,Temperature
Delworth, T., S. Manabe, and R.J. Stouffer, lnterdecadalvariationsin the trendsof the U.S. HistoricalClimatologyNetwork basedon satellite-
thermohaline
circulation
in a coupledocean-atmosphere
model,if. Clim., designated landuse/landcover,d. Clim., 12, 1344-1348,1999.
6, 1993-2011, 1993. Hamen, J., and S. Lebedeff, Global trends of measured surface air
Delworth, T.L.. S. Manabe, and R.J. Stouffer, Multidecadal climate temperature,
J. Geophys.Res.,92, 13,345-13,372,1987.
variability!n the GreenlandSea and surrounding
regions:A coupled Hansen,J., D. Johnson,A. Lacis, S. Lebedeff, P. Lee, D. •nd, and G. Russell,
HANSEN ET AL.: GISSANALYSIS OF SUI@'ACETEMPERATUlLECHANGE 31,021
Climaticimpactof increasing
atmospheric
carbon
dioxide,Science,
213, ten-•rature
anditschanges
overthepast150years,
Rev.Geophys.,
37,
957-966, 1981. 173-199, 1999.
Hansen,J.,I. Fung,A. Lacis,D. Rind,S.Lebedeff,
R. Ruedy,G. Russell,and Karl, T.R., andC.N. Williams,An approach
to adjusting
climatological
tirre
P. Stone,Globalclimatechanges asforecast
by theGoddard Institute
for seriesfor discontinuous inhomogeneities,
J. Clim.Appl. Climatol.,26,
Space
Studies
three-dirrensional
model,
J.Geophys.
Res.,93,9341-9364, 1744-1763, 1987.
1988. Karl,T.R., D. Tarpley,R.G. Quayle,H.F. Diaz, D.A. Robinson,
andR.S.
Hansen,J., H. Wilson,M. Sato,R. Ruedy,K. Shah,andE. Hansen,Satellite Bradley, Therecentclimaterecord:Whatit canandcannot tellus,Rev.
andsurfaceten-gerature
dataatodds?,
Clim.Change,30, 103-117,1995. Geophys., 27, 405-430, 1989.
Hansen,J., R. Ruedy,M. Sato and R. Reynolds,Global surfaceair Karl,T. R., R.W. Knight,andJ. Christy,Globalandhemispheric
tem•rature
temperature
in 1995:Rerum
topre-Pmatubo
level,Geophys.
Res.Lett.,23, trends:Uncertainties relatedto inadequate
sampling,
J. Clim., 7, 1144-
1665-1668, 1996. 1163, 1994.
Hansen,J.,et al.,Forcings
andchaos in interannual climatechange, Karl,T.R., R.W. Knight,G. Kukla,andG. Gavin,Evidence
todecadal for theradiative
J. Geophys. Res.,102,25,679-25,720,1997. effectsof anthropogenic sulphateaerosols
in theobservedclimaterecord,
Hansen,J., M. Sato,A. Lacis,R. Ruedy,I. Tegen,andE. Matthews,
Climate in Aerosol Forcingof Climate,
editedby R. CharlsonandJ. Heintzenberg,
forcings in theindustrial
era,Proc.Natl.Acad.Sci.,95, 12,753-12,758, pp.363-382,JohnWiley,NewYork, 1995.
1998a.
Kukla,G., J. Gavin,andT.R. Karl, Urbanwarming,J. Clim.Appl.Meteorol.,
25, 1265-1270, 1986.
Hansen,
J.E.,M. Sato,R. Ruedy,A. Lacis,andJ. Glascoe,
Globalclimatedata Kushnir,Y., Interdecadal
variationsin NorthAtlanticseasurfacetemperature
and models:A reconciliation,Science,281,930-932, 1998b.
andassociated
atmospheric
conditions,
J. Clim.,7, 141-157,1994.
Hansen,J., M. Sato,J. Glascoe,and R. Ruedy,A conanon-sense
climate
Landsberg,
H.E.,TheUrbanClimate,
275pp.,Academic, SanDiego,Calif.,
index:Is climatechanging
noticeably?,
Proc.Natl.Acad.Sci.,95, 4113- 1981.
4120, 1998c.
Legates,
D.R., andC.J.Willmott,Meanseasonal
andspatialvariabilityin
Hansen,
J.,R. Ruedy,A Lacis,M. Sato,L. Nazarenko,
N. Tausnev, I. Tegen,
globalsurface
airtemperature,
Theor.Appl.Climatol.,
41, 11-21,1990.
andD. Koch,Climatemodeling in theglobalwarmingdebate,in Climate Manabe, S., and R.T. Wetheraid, The effects of doublingthe CO2
Modeling:Past,Presentand Future,editedby D. Randall,Academic concentration
ontheclimateof a generalcirculation
model,J. Atmos.Sci.,
Press,SanDiego,in press,1999. 32, 3-15, 1975.
Hanson,K., G.A. Maul, andT.R. Karl, Are atmospheric
"greenhouse"
effects
Manabe,S., andR.J.Stouffer,Simulation
of abruptclimatechange
induced
by
apparent in the climaticrecordof the contiguousU.S. (1895-1987), freshwaterinputtotheNorthAtlantic
Ocean,Nature,378,165-167,1995.
Geophys. Res.Lett.,16, 49-52, 1989. Mann, M.E., and J. Park, Global-scale modes of surface tengerature
Harris,R.N., andD.S. Chapman,Boreholetemperatures anda baselinefor
variabilityon interannual
to centurytirmscales,
J. Geophys. Res.,99,
20th-entury globalwarming estimates,Science,
275, 1618-1621,1997. 25,819-25,833, 1994.
Hollandsworth,
S.M., R.D. McPeters,L.E. Flynn,W. Planet,A.J. Miller, and Mann,M.E., andJ. Park,Jointspatiotemporalmodesof surfacetemperature
S. Chandra,Ozonetrendsdeduced fromcombined Nimbus7 SBUV and andsealevelpressure variabilityin theNorthernHemisphere duringthe
NOAA 11 SBUV/2data,Geophys. Res.Lett.,22,905-908, 1995. lastcentury,
J. Clim.,9, 2137-2162,1996.
Hughes,
M.K.,andH.F.Diaz,Wasthere
a 'Medieval
WarmPeriod'
andif so, Mann, M.E., R. S. Bradley,and M.K. Hughes,Global-scaletemperature
whereandwhen?,Clim. Change,26, 109-142,1994. patterns
andclimate
forcing
overthepastsixcenturies,
Nature,392,779-
Hunt,A.G., Understanding
a possible
correlation
between
E1Ninooccurrence 787, 1998.
frequency
andglobalwarming,
Bull.Am.Meteorol.
Soc.,80, 297-300, Mann, M.E., R.S. Bradley, and M.K. Hughes,Northernhemisphere
1999. temperatures
duringthepastmillennium:
Inferences,
uncertainties,
and
Hurrell,J.W., Decadaltrendsin the North AtlanticOscillation:Regional limitations,
Geophys.
Res.Lett.,26, 759-762,1999.
temperatures
andprecipitation,
Science,
269,676-679,1995. McPhaden,
M.J., Genesisandevolutionof the 1997-98E1Nino,Science,283,
Hurrell,J.W., andK.E. Trenberth,Satelliteversussurfaceestimates
of air 950-954, 1999.
temperature since1979,J. Clim.,9, 2222-2232,1996. Mitchell,J.M., On thecausesof instnmentallyobservedseculartemperature
Hurrell,J.W.,andK. Trenberth,
Spurious trendsin satellite
MSU temperture trends,J. Meteorol., 10, 244-261, 1953.
fromrmrging different
satellite
records, Nature,386,164-167,1997. Oerlemans, J., Quantifying globalwarmingform the retreatof glaciers,
Hurrell,J.W., andK. Trenberth,Difficultiesin obtainingreliabletemperature Science,264, 243-245, 1994.
trends:Reconciling
the surfaceandsatellitemicrowave
sounding
unit Pan, Y.H., and A.H. Oort, Global climate variationsconnectedwith sea
records,J. Clim., 11,945-967, 1998. surfacetemperatureanomalies in theeastern
equatorial
PacificOceanfor
Intergovenumntal PanelonClimate Change(IPCC),Climate
Change 1995, the1958-73period, MortWeather Rev.,111,1244-1258,1983.
editedbyJ.T.Houghton, L.G.MeiraFilho,B.A.Callandar,
N. Harris,A. Parker,D.E., P.D. Jones,C.K. Folland,andA. Bevan,Interdecadal
changes
Kattenberg, andK. Maskell,Cambridge Univ.Press,NewYork,1996. of surfacetemperaturesincethelatenineteenth
century.
J. Geophys.
Res.,
Jones,P.D., T.M.L. Wigley, and P.M. Kelly, Variationsin surfaceair 99, 14,373-14,399, 1994.
temperatures,1, Northern
Hemisphere,1881-1980, Mort.Weather Rev., Parker,D.E., C.K. Folland, and M. Jackson,Marine surfacetemperature:
110, 59-70, 1982. observed
variations
anddatarequirerrents,
Clim.Change,31,559-600,
Jones,
P.D.,S.C.B.Raper,B. Santer,
B.S.B.Cherry,C. Goodess,P.M. Kelly, 1995.
T.M.L. Wigley,R.S.Bradley,andH.F. Diaz,A gridpointsurfaceair Peterson,T.C., and R.S. Vose, An overview of the Global Historical
temperaturedatasetfor theNorthernHemisphere, DOE TechRep., Climatology
Network
temperature
database,
Bull.Am.Meteorol.
Soc.,78,
TR022,251pp.,Dept.of Energy,Washington,D.C., 1985. 283%2849, 1997.
Jones,
P.D.,Theinfluence
of ENSOonglobaltemperatures,Clim.Monit.,17, Peterson,
T.C.,et al., Homogeneity
adjustfronts
of in situatmospheric
climate
80-89, 1989. data:A review, Int. J. Climatol., 18, 1493-1517, 1998a.
Jones,
P.D.,Recent
warming
in globaltemperature
series,
Geophys.
Res.Lett., Peterson,T.C., T.R. Karl, P.F. Jamason,
R. Knight,andD.R. Easterling,First
21, 1149-1152, 1994a. differencermtlxxl:Maximizingstationdensityfor thecalculation
of long-
Jones,
P.D.,Hemispheric surfaceairtemperature
variations:
A reanalysis
and termglobaltemperature
change,
J. Geophys.
Res.,103,25,96%25,974,
anupdateto 1993,J. Clim.,7, 1794-1802,1994b. 1998b.
Jones,
P.D.,Landsurface temperatures:
Is thenetworkgoodenough?,Clim. Peterson,
T.C., R. Vose,R. Schmoyer,
andV. Razuvaev,
Globalhistorical
Change,31,545-558, 1995. climatology
network(GHCN)quality
control
ofmonthly
temperature
data,
Jones,
P.D.,andR.S.Bradley,Climaticvariations
overthelast500years,in Int. J. Climatol., 18, 1169-1179, 1998c.
ClimateSinceA.D. 1500,pp.649-665,Routledge,NewYork,1992. Peterson,
T.C., K.P.Gallo,J. Lawrimore,
T.W. Owen,A. Huang,andD.A.
Jones,
P.D.,P.Y.Groisman,
M. Coughlan,N. Plmmm•,W.C. Wang,andT.R. McKittrick,
Globalruraltemperature
trends,
Geophys.Res.Lett.,26,329-
Karl, Assessrrentof urbanizationeffects in tirre seriesof surfaceair 332, 1999.
temperature
overland,Nature,347, 169-172,1990. Pollack,H.N., H. Shaopeng,
andP.Y. Shen,Climatechangerecordin
Jones,P.D., T.J. Osborn,andK.R. Briffa,Estimating
sampling
errorsin large- subsurfacetengeratures:
A globalperspective,
Science,
282, 279-281,
scaletemperature averages,J. Clim.,10, 2548-2568,1997a. 1998.
Jones,P.D., T.J. Osbom,T.M.L. Wigley, P.M. Kelly, and B.D. Santer, Quayle,
R.G.,T.C.Peterson,A.N.Basist,
andC.S.Godfrey,
Anoperational
Coml:•isons betweenthemicrowave sounding unittemperature
record
and near-real-tirre
global
ternperamre
index,
Geophys.
Res.Lett.,26,333-335,
the surfacetemperaturerecordfrom 1979 to 1996:Real differences or 1999.
potentialdiscontinuities?,
J. Geophys.Res.,102,30,135-30,145, 1997b. Rasmusson,
E.M., E1Ninoandvariations
in climate,Am. Sci.,73, 168-177,
Jones,P.D., M. New, D.E. Parker,S. Martin, andI.G. Rigor,Surfaceair 1985.
31,022 HANSEN ET AL.: GISS ANALYSIS OF SUI@'ACE TEMPEIL•XTURE CHANGE
Rayher,N.A., E.B. Horton,D.E. Parker,C.K. Foiland,andR.B. Hackett, of historical

seasurfaceterr•rature usingempiricalorthogonal
functions,
Globalseaiceandseasurface
temperature
dataset,1903-1994,
Hadley J. Clim., 9, 1403-1420, 1996.
Cent.Clim.Res.Tech.Note,CRTN74,HadleyCent.,UK, 1996. Thompson,
D.W.J.,andJ.M.Wallace,TheArcticOscillation
signature
in the
Reynolds,
R.W. andT.M. Smith,Inlxovedglobalseasurface
temperature wintertirre
geopotential
heightandte•ature fields,Geophys.
Res.Lett.,
analyses,J. Clim., 7, 929-948, 1994. 25, 1297-1300, 1998.
Rodwell,M.J., D.P. Rowell,andC.K. Foiland,Oceanic
forcingof the vanLoon,H., andJ.C. Rogers,The seesawin winterterr•raturesbetween
wintertirre
NorthAtlanticOscillation
andEuropean
climate,
Nature,398, Greenland andNorthernEurope,I, Generaldescription,Mort. Weather
320-323, 1999. Rev., 106, 296-310, 1978.
Russell,P.B., et al., Global to microscaleevolutionof the Pinatubovolcamc Walker,G.T.andE.W. Bliss,WorldWeather
V, Mere.Roy.Meteorol.Soc.,
aerosol
derived
fromdiverse
rmasurenents
andanalyses,
J. Geophys.
Res., 4, 53-84, 1932.
101, 18,745-18,763, 1996. Wentz,F.J. andM. Schabel,Effectsof orbitaldecayon satellite-derived
Sato,M., J.E.Hansen,M.P. McCormick, andJ.B.Pollack, Stratospheric lower-tropospheric temperate trends,Nature,394, 661-664, 1998.
Res.,98, 22,987-22,994, World Meteorological
aerosolopticaldepth,1850-1990,J. Geophys. Orgamzation (WMO), GlobalClimateObserving
1993. System,report,Workshop onGlobalSeaSurface Te•ature DataSets,
Schlesinger,
M.E.,andN. Ramankutty, Anoscillation
in theglobalclimate Geneva.,in press,1999.
systemof period65-70 years,Nature, 367, 723-726, 1994.
Shea,D.J., Climatological
Atlas:1950-1979,NCARTech.Note,TN-269, J. Hamen, R. Ruedy,J. Glascoe,andM. Sato,NASA GoddardInstitutefor
Natl. Cent. for Atto Res., Boulder,1986. Space Studies,2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025 (e-mail
Shindell,D.T., R.L. Miller, G.A. Schmidt,andL. Pandolfo,Simulation
of jhansen@giss.nasa.gov).
recent
northem
winterclimatetrends
bygreenhouse
gasforcing,
Nature,
399, 452-455, 1999. (ReceivedMarch29, 1999;revisedJuly28, 1999;
Smith,T.M., R.W. Reynolds,
R.E.Livesay,andD.C. Stokes,
Reconstruction accepted
August4, 1999)

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres - 1999 - Hansen

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

You might also like

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres - 1999 - Hansen

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Title

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres - 1999 - Hansen

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 104, NO.

D24, PAGES 30,997-31,022, DECEMBER 27, 1999

GISS analysisof surface temperature change

Abstract. We describe thecurrentGISSanalysis of surfacetemperature changefor theperiod

1. Introduction resultingnear-globaltemperaturechangeof the pastcentury,and

that month,unlessone of the nearestfive neighboringstationshad

Figure 3. (a, b) Measuredtimeseriesof temperature

:: :, ,: ,• :, ,, ,: , ::. .,•:: .: ,.,• , ..:• .. :: ::

Figure4. Globalannual-mean surface

Temperature Anomaly (øC)

1960 -.02 1980 .26 1995 43

Second,the globaltemperaturein 1998 waseasilythe warmest Description

19(X) 1•20 19•1

7. Global Temperature Index

6.4. U.S. Mean Temperature U.S. Temperature

• •.2 =•: . .••a.•.•..

North AtlanticOcean. Suchcoolingmightbe associated with an strongasthecoolingin recentdecades.Presumably, therewaslittle

Change of Temperature Index Based on Local Linear Trends

-2 -1.5 -1 -.5 -.3 -.1 .1 .3 .5 1 1.5 2.8

Plate4. Changeof surfacetemperatureindexfor theperiod1950-1998basedon locallineartrendsusingsurfaceair

Surface Air Temperature Change Based on Local Linear Trends (øC)

-3 -2 -1 -.3 .3 1 2 3 4 -4 -3 -2 -1 -.3 .3 1 2 3 8.0

Plate5. Surfaceak temperature changefor theperiods1870-1900,1900-1938,1938-1970and 1970-1998basedon

-3.6 -1 -.5 -.3 -.1 .1 .3 .5 1.6

Plate 6. Five yearrunningmeanof zonalsurfacetemperatureanomalysince1880 basedon surfaceair temperature

Seasonal-Mean Zonal Surface Temperature Index

-4.8 -1 -.5 -.3 -.1 .1 .3 .5 l 3.4

November-April Surface Temperature Anomalies (øC)

19•9-60 -08 1969-70 .13 1979-80 .22 1989-90

Plate 9a. Surfacetemperatureanomaliesfor the (NorthernHemisphere)

May-October Surface Temperature Anomalies (øC)

1952 .07 1962 .07 1972 .05 1982 .07 1992

•-• ' .. . t• '

1953 . 12 1963 . 16 1973 ß07 1983 .25 1993 .08

1986 .10 1996 .28

1957 09 1967 .04 1977 .12 1987 .28 1997 .41

1959 -.02 1969 .02 1979 .06 1989 .26

Plate 9b. Surfacetemperature

(a) Annual Temperature Anomalies(øC)

. c,.,......_.•'•'' ' " """

Dec-Jan-Feb, 1998-99 .56 Mar-Apr-May, 1999 .29

Jun-Jul-Aug, 1999 .28

Plate 10. The 1998 and 1999 temperatureanomalies:

Anotherpossibleuse of suchmapsis to heuristicallycompare The firsthalfof 1999hascooledconsiderably from 1998(Figures

Global Annual-Mean TemperatureAnomalies

-'½880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Plate Ala showsthat the globalmeantemperaturechangesin intercomparison.

19•1 .14 •98 • stg•i'o• r>•t• .29 1981 -.lO

1990-98 .32 1990-98 [+GISST] .a9 1990-98 .02

1990-98 .32 1990-98 [+Reynolds] .24 1990-98 .08

-3.3 -1-.5-.2 .2 .5 1 2 3.4-3-2-1-.5-.2 .2 .5 1 2 3-3-2-1-.5-.2 .2 .5 1 2 3

(a) U.S. Mean Temperature (b) 1950-1998 Temperature Change (øC)

i900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Rural + Small Town + Unadjusted Urban

ß$ I 1.5 2.82.1-1. -1 -.2 -.el -.1 .1 .3 .fi 1 1.õ IL8

Plate A2. (a) Annualand5 yearrunning-mean surfaceair temperature for thecontiguous

References modelsimulation,Geophys.Res.Lett.. 24, 257-260, 1997.