Thayer Consultancy Background Brief

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Russia Presses Its Case to Sell
Arms to Vietnam
August 20, 2023

Executive Summary
The Russian Federation’s Ministry of Defence held the 11th Moscow Conference on
International Security in conjunction with the International Military-Technical Forum
in Moscow from 13-17 August 2023.
Russia’s Minister of Defence gave the opening keynote speech that inter alia made
the following points:
–Western military arms supplied to the Ukraine are inferior to Russian and even
Soviet-era weaponry.
–the United States is trying to dismantle the ASEAN-centric security system in the
Asia-Pacific.
–Russia will provide arms and military-technical equipment to countries in the Asia-
Pacific.
–Vietnam, in particular, would be most interested in arms and military technology on
display at the Military-Technical Forum.
The head of Russia’s Ministry of Defence’s Main Intelligence Department claimed:
–the United States was deliberately obstructing Russian arms sales to India and
Southeast Asia by threating to invoke sanctions.
–the United States was pressuring three Southeast Asian states to provide Ukraine
with their stocks of Soviet-made armoured vehicles and ammunition.

This Background Brief provides an overview of the 11th Moscow Conference on

International Security held from 13-17 August 2023 along six thematic lines: Western
arms to Ukraine are inferior, the U.S. is dismantling the ASEAN-centric security system,
the U.S. is pressuring Southeast Asian states to provide Soviet-made equipment to
Ukraine, the U.S. is obstructing Russian arms sales, Russia will sell arms to the Asia-
Pacific, and potential Russian arms sales to Vietnam.
 2

11th Moscow Conference on International Security

The Moscow Conference was attended by 800 delegates from 76 countries and six
international organisations: United Nations; Collective Security Treaty Organization
(CSTO); Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), Association of Southeast Asian
Nations, (ASEAN); Arab League, and the African Union.
According to the conference program, delegates from China, India, South Africa,
Israel, Turkey, Mexico United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and North Korea were
invited. No Western countries participated.
Western Arms to Ukraine are Inferior
According to Defence Minister General Sergey Shoigu:
With regard to the Western-manufactured weapons supplied to Ukraine I
would like to emphasise once again that there is nothing unique or
invulnerable to Russian weapons on the battlefield today. In many cases, even
Soviet-manufactured hardware is superior in its combat qualities to Western
models.
We have objective control data on the destruction of German-manufactured
tanks, U.S.-manufactured armoured vehicles, U.K.-manufactured missiles and
other weapons systems. We are ready to share assessments of the weakness
of Western technology with our partners. You can get acquainted with
individual samples of trophy weapons at the thematic exhibition at Patriot
Park.
U.S. is Dismantling the ASEAN-Centric Security System
According to Defence Minister Shoigu,
Systematic attempts are being made to dismantle the ASEAN-centric security system
established in the Asia-Pacific region. The NATO bloc confrontation is being actively
implemented, including by involving the United States European allies in solving
regional security problems.
We note a characteristic tendency to create an AUCUS [sic] regional association along
the lines of NATO. Of particular concern is the fact that the first practical project of
this alliance was cooperation in the field of military nuclear technology.
In parallel, attempts are being made to destroy existing effective mechanisms for
military cooperation in particular ADMM-Plus…
U.S. is Pressuring Southeast Asian states to Provide Soviet-made Equipment to
Ukraine
According to Igor Kostyukov, head of the Defence Ministry’s General Staff Main
Directorate, ”The White House is exerting pressure on Vietnam, Cambodia and
Thailand trying to persuade them to send their stocks of Soviet-made armored
vehicles and ammunition to Kiev.”
U.S. is Obstructing Russian Arms Sales
According to Kostyukov, “By blackmailing countries of [the Asia-Pacific] region with
the threat of sanctions, Washington is obstructing the implementation of Russian
contracts for delivering S-400 air defense missile systems to India, Sukhoi Su-35 fighter
 3

aircraft and Mil Mi-17 helicopters to Indonesia, and Mi-171 helicopters to the
Philippines.” In addition, Kostyukov alleged, “The White House intends to derail plans
for military-technical cooperation between Russia and Vietnam.”
Russia Will Sell Arms to the Asia-Pacific
Defence Minister Shoigu noted that in parallel with efforts to dismantle the ASEAN-
centric security system efforts were also being made “to destroy the existing effective
mechanisms of military cooperation.” Shoigu noted sarcastically that he doubted that
discussions currently underway on gender issues, climate change or the blue economy
“can contribute to bringing the regional countries together to solve security issues.”
Shoigu pledged that Russia: “We will continue to strengthen military cooperation with
the countries of the Asia-Pacific region, where one of our most important partners is
India, with which we have historically established particularly privileged relations.
With Vietnam, Myanmar, Mongolia, Laos, Indonesia, and Bangladesh, we share a
common experience of struggle against colonial domination.”
According to Alexander Mikheyev, the head of Rosoboronexport, the $5.43 billion
contract to provide India with the Almaz-Antey S-400 Triumf air defence missiles,
signed in October 2018, is being implemented and will be completed by the end of
2024.
Potential Russian Arms Sales to Vietnam
Vietnam’s Minister of National Defence General Phan Van Giang attended the
Moscow Conference and held sideline meetings with high-level defence officials from
participating countries including the defence ministers from Belorussia and China and
the head of the Lao delegation.
General Giang was accompanied by Senior Lieutenant General Nguyen Van Nghia,
Deputy Chief of Staff, who held separate talks with officials from JSC Rosoboronexport
and Belarus’ JSC Beltechexport about defence industry cooperation.
On 14 August, General Giang met with Nikolai Patrushev, Secretary of the Russian
Federation Security Council. General Giang told his host that “Vietnam considers the
development of its comprehensive strategic partnership with Russia [as] one of the
top priorities in its foreign policy, in which defence cooperation plays a key role in
bilateral ties.” During the discussion, Giang proposed that Russia continue to prioritize
the development of defence cooperation with Vietnam, improve the effectiveness of
some important cooperation mechanisms, [and] increase scientific studies...“
General Giang held a working meeting with Russia’s Defence Minister Shoigu on 17
August. The media quoted Shoigu as stating, “I am convinced that the armaments,
military hardware and modern technologies that are on view at the Army-2023
International Military-Technical Forum will draw the attention of the Vietnamese side
and will find practical application in the national armed forces.”
Shoigu also noted that Vietnam remains Russia’s reliable ally and the key partner in
the Asia-Pacific Region and Russia’s interaction with Vietnam was strategic. Shoigu
concluded, “Undoubtedly, multifaceted Russian-Vietnamese cooperation is in the
core interests of our countries.”
 4

In response, General Giang affirmed that “Vietnam always treasures its

comprehensive strategic partnership with Russia.” He also noted that military and
military-technical cooperation are key elements of the strategic partnership between
Vietnam and Russia and that “the recent visits to Vietnam by the leaders of the United
Russia party, the Federation Council, and the government have helped strengthen and
develop relations of cooperation in many spheres, including military and military-
technical.” General Giang announced that Vietnam would host an International
Defence Expo in 2024.
Giang ended his opening remarks by expressing confidence that “the negotiations will
be successful, will help bring bilateral cooperation to a new level of development, and
will take a worthy place among key elements of the comprehensive strategic
partnership.”
At the conclusion of their working session, Ministers Shoigu and Giang “agreed to
maintain the effectiveness of existing cooperation mechanisms, carry out annual
defence cooperation plans effectively, back multilateral activities held by each other,
and increase cooperation in training, sci-tech, and history.”
Conclusion
Russia organised the 11th Moscow Conference on International Security and the
International Military-Technical Forum to pushback against the U.S.-led international
coalition that seeks to isolate Russia and impose sanctions on its economy for its
aggression against Ukraine. In Moscow’s view, the attendance of delegates from
seventy-six countries from Asia-Pacific, Africa and Latin America is proof that Russia
is not isolated internationally. Russia’s trump card in its relations with the Asia-Pacific
is the sale of advanced modern military weapons and technology.
Since Russia annexed the Crimea, Vietnamese arms procurements from Russia
declined precipitously from over one billion U.S. dollars in 2014 to under U.S. $100
million by 2021.
In 2021, the 13th national congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam approved the
most major modernisation program in the history of the Vietnam People’s Army under
the catchphrase “Building a Streamlined and Strong Army by 2025 and a
Revolutionary, Regular, Advanced and Modern People’s Army by 2030.” Two weeks
after the military modernisation program was adopted Russian invaded Ukraine.
Vietnam has been marking time ever since by putting arms procurements on hold.
Vietnam is now at a cross roads. Vietnam is dependent on Russia for arms and military
technology because of its huge legacy of Soviet-made stocks of warships, submarines,
multirole fighter aircraft, armour, artillery and missiles. It seems clear from remarks
made by Defence Minister Shoigu that Russia expects Vietnam to pick up where it left
off and resume purchases of Russian arms and military technology.
At the same time, Vietnam is planning to raise bilateral relations with the United
States to a strategic partnership, if not higher level. If Vietnam chooses to enter the
U.S. defence market it risks China putting pressure on Russia to curtail defence
support for Vietnam. It can be speculated that either Chinese pressure on Russia or
Russia’s calculation of risk, has prevented the sale of the BrahMos cruise missiles to
Vietnam.
 5

If Vietnam resumes big ticket arms and military technology procurements from
Russia, it could face U.S. sanctions under the Countering America’s Adversaries
Through Sanctions Act, or other punitive measures. This could result in the putative
strategic partnership being dead on arrival

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Russia Presses Its Case to Sell Arms to
Vietnam,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, August 20, 2023. All background
briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the
mailing list type, UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.
f