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Survival of The Fittest - Social Media's Influence On The Relationship Between Traditional Media and The Public
Survival of The Fittest - Social Media's Influence On The Relationship Between Traditional Media and The Public
Abstract
Despite the innovations and emergence of digital and social media technologies, the influential
Agenda-setting theory developed by Max McCombs and Donald Shaw in 1972 has remained
relatively unchanged. Many analysts still operate under the assumption that the media agenda has
a greater influence on the public agenda. With the rise of social media, however, the possibility
for reverse agenda-setting needs to be more seriously considered, especially in light of recent events
surrounding the Trump University lawsuit, the 2016 presidential election, and the relative success
of the #NoDAPL protests. Because of modern technological capabilities in social media, the basic
premise of Agenda-setting theory is no longer accurate. This paper serves as a critique of existing
theoretical models of Agenda-setting by analyzing recent developments in social media.
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Survival of the Fittest: Social Media’s Influence on the Relationship between Traditional Media and the Public
coverage (Confessore & Yourish, 2016), and protests to halt construction of the
Dakota Access Pipeline (Rott & Martin, 2016). Because of increased civic engage-
ment through social media, the premise of a media-influenced public agenda is no
longer an accurate representation of American society. Whereas communication
theorists once argued that mass media set the public agenda, social media con-
sistently proves that this is no longer the case. This paper serves as a critique of
existing theoretical models of Agenda-setting through recent developments in social
media.
Developments in Agenda-setting Theory
Agenda-setting theory is consistently held as one of the most studied theories of
mass communication since its inception with the 1972 Chapel Hill study by Max
McCombs and Donald Shaw (Lycarião & Sampaio, 2016). The basic premise of
Agenda-setting theory is that mass media influences a topic’s salience for the public.
According to McCombs and Shaw, the media “may not be successful much of the
time in telling people what to think, but it is stunningly successful in telling its read-
ers what to think about” (McCombs & Shaw, 1972, p. 177). In the Chapel Hill study,
McCombs and Shaw provided evidence supporting the strong correlation between
public and media agendas, concluding that the public agenda was more likely to
adopt pronounced issues in the media as a reaction.
The assumption that the public agenda is more likely to adopt issues from
the media agenda was best exemplified through the Watergate Scandal in 1972.
News sources were integral to keeping the public informed as the Scandal unfold-
ed, particularly the Washington Post’s journalists Bob Woodward and Carl Bernstein,
whose investigative journalism left a lasting impact on the journalism industry
(Giuffo, 2001). By publishing updates on the Watergate Scandal, the Washington Post
influenced the public agenda. After analyzing events like the Watergate Scandal, Mc-
Combs and Shaw determined that every media sensation followed a similar pattern.
They developed a formula that accurately depicted the relationship between media
and public agenda:
repeated reporting by media sources ➞ public reaction
“Public reaction” does not mean public agreement (McCombs & Shaw, 1972). As
seen in the Watergate Scandal, 57 percent of the public thought that Nixon should
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Survival of the Fittest: Social Media’s Influence on the Relationship between Traditional Media and the Public
scale, which is based on three dimensions of NFO: “NFO towards an issue; NFO
towards specific aspects or frames of an issue; and NFO in regard to journalistic
evaluations” (2006, p. 429). Matthes’ scale differs from the earlier accepted two
dimensions (relevance and uncertainty) by focusing more on relevance, facts of the
issue, and the reporting of the issue and facts (Matthes, 2016; Chernov, Valenzue-
la, & McCombs, 2011). Matthes’ scale has since been validated in an experimental
comparison of Matthes’ three dimensions and earlier two dimensions (Chern-
ov, Valenzuela, & McCombs, 2011). By accounting for how an issue is reported,
Matthes’ scale acknowledges the importance of the media source as it pertains to
traditional media, but it does not explicitly account for messages shared through
social media by friends and family or those not included in journalistic evaluations.
Despite the shift in dimensions, the primary concept remains that the media must
provide information relevant to the public they are targeting.
Similarly, Agendamelding reveals how closely correlated and aligned the
public and media agendas are (McCombs, Shaw & Weaver, 2014), and is one of
the most recent advances in Agenda-setting theory. For the media to be successful
in dictating the public agenda, “the correlation between media and public needs to
have some reasonable level of agreement” (McCombs, Shaw & Weaver, 2014, p.
794). If the media can predict the audience’s degree of interest in public issues, then
it could tailor its message, which would create a reverse agenda-setting effect. There
are two major axes of Agendamelding: vertical and horizontal. Vertical media agen-
da-setting is that of the civic communities—i.e., it represents all members of those
communities. Horizontal media agenda-setting, on the other hand, represents per-
sonal communities; it gravitates towards personal interests. For example, 1930s Nazi
Germany had a high correlation between public media (vertical axis) and personal
media (horizontal axis) due to the firm restrictions on media that punished deviation
(McCombs, Shaw & Weaver, 2014).
According to McCombs, Shaw, and Weaver (2014), Agendamelding can be
condensed into a formula that blends civic community agendas, personal communi-
ty agendas, and individual interests, experience, and beliefs:
Agenda Community Attraction (ACA)
= Vertical Media Agenda Setting Correlation (squared)
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Survival of the Fittest: Social Media’s Influence on the Relationship between Traditional Media and the Public
researchers should revisit Agenda-setting theory to determine the extent of the shift
of influence between the media and public.
Development in Media
Because media technology is constantly changing and evolving, the Chapel
Hill study is no longer an accurate reflection of modern news consumption. Within
the past 10 years, more and more people receive news information second-hand
through social media platforms on a smartphone application. According to the Pew
Research Center, at least 64 percent of American adults owned a smartphone in
2015 (Smith, 2015). Additionally, of those adults, younger adults (ages 18 to 29),
those with low household incomes and low levels of educational attainment, and
non-whites are more likely to have a higher rate of dependence on their smartphone
(Smith, 2015). Smartphone companies quickly adapted existing social media plat-
forms like Facebook onto their operating systems, thus solidifying the smartphone
as a tool of connectivity and communication. Additionally, according to a separate
Gallup Poll in 2015, 44 percent of Americans upgrade their phones approximately
every two years when their cellphone contract expires, while 54 percent of people
upgrade their phone when it stops working or becomes obsolete (Swift, 2015). The
technological boom turned the luxury item of a personal computer into a common-
place object which grew to connect the world digitally.
Unlike traditional media, social media platforms are not stable entities.
Myspace was launched in August of 2003 and was most popular between 2005
and 2008, but it was surpassed by Facebook within a year after Facebook launched
publicly in 2006 (Albanesius, 2009). To stay relevant, social media platforms must
avoid stagnation. Since 2012, Facebook has updated its code twice a day to be as ef-
ficient as possible (Protalinski, 2012). After its boom in popularity from 2008-2009,
Facebook has added video and text chat, live video streaming, a “marketplace” for
users to sell unwanted items, and different “reactions” beyond just “liking” the post.
Platforms such as Myspace and Google+ are not as successful as Facebook be-
cause they did not adapt quickly enough, whereas Facebook has continued to grow
in popularity because of its willingness to reinvent itself (Albanesius, 2009; Cantil,
2016). Social media platforms must continue to adapt to the ever-evolving audience
and user base to avoid becoming irrelevant like Myspace or Google+.
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Survival of the Fittest: Social Media’s Influence on the Relationship between Traditional Media and the Public
online news sources, will eventually surpass traditional news sources similar to how
television surpassed print news sources (Nielson & Sambrook, 2016). As a result,
the power of traditional media to function as news gatekeepers or agenda setters is
waning with the consistent rise of new and evolving social media platforms.
One reason social media platforms have drastically altered media, espe-
cially news, is that users are directly engaged with each other regardless of distance
(Mitchell, Gottfried, Barthel & Shearer, 2016). They are no longer passive audience
members simply reading or watching news being reported. While most adults still
commonly share news by word of mouth, sharing news digitally becomes more
frequent the easier it can be shared (Mitchell, et al., 2016). Users control the spread
of news via their own social media page, which enables every user to act as a com-
mentator. In other words, social media users become news reporters because of the
nature of social media communication. Currently, traditional news sources are in
the beginning stages of recognizing and adapting to the shift of social media acting
as gatekeepers of news by developing their own social media pages across various
digital platforms (Nielson & Sambrook, 2016).
A further development in the way social media affects traditional media
outlets is the creation of news sources from digital platforms. These types of news
sources can be categorized as digital pure players that focus primarily on building
an audience to distribute through platforms like Facebook and YouTube (Nielson
& Sambrook, 2016). Examples of digital pure players include Occupy Democrats
(Nunberg, 2011) and Tomi Lahren (Wendling, 2016). The newsworthiness of digital
pure players stems directly from the fact that they exist exclusively on digital plat-
forms. Modern technology has created a digital landscape that would have been
unimaginable to the Agenda-setting theory creators in 1972. Researchers, therefore,
must account for the new possibilities created by new media platforms and evaluate
their consequences in light of the theoretical status quo of Agenda-setting theory.
Implications of Developments
Because of social media’s ability to involve the public, traditional media is
no longer able to set or control the public agenda because the audience now
influences aggregators and algorithms1 (Vu, 2014). Civic engagement, for example,
1 Social media relies on aggregators and algorithms that display content per-
sonalized for the user based on how the user interacts with prior content.
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Survival of the Fittest: Social Media’s Influence on the Relationship between Traditional Media and the Public
has increased because users can easily post and respond to online petitions, calls for
action, and virtual gatherings to show solidarity and to protest (Yu, 2016). The lack
of gatekeeping and increased civic engagement can be seen recently in three specific
instances in ascending order of importance: the unsuccessful subconscious over-
shadowing of the Trump University court settlement, the direction of presidential
campaign issues, and the involvement in protests of the Dakota Access Pipeline.
On November 18, 2016, President-elect Donald Trump settled the fraud
case against Trump University for $25 million, which was reported by BBC News
(BBC News, Nov. 2016). That evening, Vice President-elect Mike Pence attended
a showing of Hamilton: An American Musical. Following the performance, the actor
playing Aaron Burr, Brandon Victor Dixon, delivered a message to Pence calling for
the future Trump administration to “uphold our American values and to work on
behalf of all of us” (see Mele & Healy, 2016). The next day, on November 19, news
stations covered Donald Trump’s tweets about the speech to Mike Pence, where
he claimed that Pence was “harassed” by the cast; then on November 20, Trump
tweeted that the cast and producers “should immediately apologize to Mike Pence
for their terrible behavior” (BBC News, Nov. 2016; Mele & Healy, 2016). Despite
the popularity of the Hamilton incident, Figure 1 demonstrates that the “Trump
University settlement” was searched using Google2 more often than “Hamilton cast
to Mike Pence” at their respective peaks on November 19 and 20:
In addition to a general Google search, Fox News and CNN coverage of both
events were also examined because of their documented partisan biases (Weath-
erly, Petros & Christopherson, 2007). When searching the Fox News results using
“Trump University settlement site:foxnews.com” on Google, 571 results appear
(see Appendix). In contrast, when searching the Fox News results using “Hamilton
cast site:foxnews.com” on Google, 3,560 results appear (see Appendix). A similar
disparity occurs on CNN’s website: 1,620 results appear for “Trump University
settlement site:cnn.com,” while 3,590 results appear for “Hamilton cast site:cnn.
com” (see Appendix). While not as prominent on CNN, both conservative and
liberal biased media appear to have endeavored to overshadow the Trump Univer-
sity fraud case, thus attempting to influence the public agenda. Despite Fox News’s
and CNN’s attempt to set the public agenda regarding the presidential election, the
controversy surrounding the Trump University fraud settlement was searched more
because it was trending on social media (BBC News, Nov. 2016; Holt, 2016). In this
instance, the premise of a media-controlled agenda failed. Although the media did
not actively attempt to withhold information, the incident supports the notion that
traditional media no longer has a monopoly on setting public agendas since digital
media allows for a broader dissemination of information.
The media failing to influence the public agenda is not an anomaly any-
more. Throughout the Presidential election, Donald Trump received a nearly
endless amount of free attention because of his Twitter account (Confessore &
Yourish, 2016). Trump used Twitter as a platform and it received daily coverage.
His Twitter posts received mention in both the Republican primary and Presidential
debates (see Federal News Service, 2016 for transcript). Donald Trump effectively
set the election agenda through social media. His constant use of buzz words like
“Crooked Hillary” and “Make America Great Again” would receive more favorites
and retweets on average than standard campaign rhetoric (Mitchell, Holcomb, &
Weisel, 2016). Because of his effective use of Twitter, Trump controlled the media
agenda, which attempted to control the public agenda. Building on Trump’s aggres-
sive rhetoric toward Hillary, news outlets devoted 19 percent of Clinton’s coverage
to varying controversies. Overall, no less than 7 percent of total weekly coverage fo-
cused solely on varying facets of email scandal allegations. Trump’s media coverage
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Survival of the Fittest: Social Media’s Influence on the Relationship between Traditional Media and the Public
Aug. 2016). The increase in public attention is further corroborated when examin-
ing Google web search trends of “#NoDAPL” (the most commonly recognized
reference for the Dakota Access Pipeline protest). Figure 2 shows that #NoDAPL’s
initial peak lasted between September 4-10:
#NoDAPL did not obtain national attention until it began to trend on social me-
dia platforms, which inevitably helped set the agenda for traditional media. As a
result, the reverse-agenda setting success of #NoDAPL demonstrates the potential
influence social media will continue to exhibit as digital technologies improve and
become more prevalent within society.
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Survival of the Fittest: Social Media’s Influence on the Relationship between Traditional Media and the Public
Conclusion
As recent events have shown, Agenda-setting theory as it currently exists
requires important modifications. The Trump University settlement versus Hamil-
ton cast and the 2016 presidential election media coverage displayed that the media
was unsuccessful in directing the public’s attention to and from certain issues.
Similarly, the #NoDAPL movement displayed social media’s power to influence the
media’s agenda. These three events are not unique or isolated from each other; they
happened within the same year and had a significant impact on public discourse.
Like traditional media sources, media studies that rely on Agenda-setting
theory should evolve alongside the changing media landscape. The popularity
and ubiquity of social media has reached unprecedented levels of influence, and
it perpetually modifies itself to remain interesting and relevant to users (Albane-
sius, 2009). Because of these innovations in media and technology, the processes
of determining and delivering news to the public by traditional news outlets are
permanently altered and are subjected to future innovations and adaptations. Thus,
the assumption that traditional media is more influential in setting the public agenda
is outdated and should be revised to more accurately represent the dynamism new
media innovations have on news consumption.
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Appendix
Screenshots of Compared Search Terms from Fox News and CNN
All screenshots in Figure 4 were retrieved on December 16, 2016. I obtained these
by typing the quoted phrases into Google search engine and documented the results.
I used the terms “Trump University settlement” and “Hamilton cast” as broad
subject terms to have access to all relevant news articles and broadcast clips from
specified sources. I limited the site each time by “site:” to only search on the news
networks’ official sites.