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  • SMA (2-Period)

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    LAN BUI THI Y
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    The document compares two forecasting methods: simple moving average (SMA) and exponential smoothing with trend. SMA produced a mean squared error (MSE) of 82500 when applied to 7 periods of demand data. Exponential smoothing with trend produced a lower MSE of 79145.71825, indicating its forecasts were more accurate. Therefore, the exponential smoothing with trend method is preferable for forecasting this time series data.

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    The document compares two forecasting methods: simple moving average (SMA) and exponential smoothing with trend. SMA produced a mean squared error (MSE) of 82500 when applied to 7 periods of demand data. Exponential smoothing with trend produced a lower MSE of 79145.71825, indicating its forecasts were more accurate. Therefore, the exponential smoothing with trend method is preferable for forecasting this time series data.

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    7 views2 pages

    SMA (2-Period)

    Uploaded by

    LAN BUI THI Y
    The document compares two forecasting methods: simple moving average (SMA) and exponential smoothing with trend. SMA produced a mean squared error (MSE) of 82500 when applied to 7 periods of demand data. Exponential smoothing with trend produced a lower MSE of 79145.71825, indicating its forecasts were more accurate. Therefore, the exponential smoothing with trend method is preferable for forecasting this time series data.

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    © All Rights Reserved
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    of 2

    SMA (2-period)

    Month Demand (At) Forecast (Ft) (At-Ft)^2


    1 2000 2100 10000
    2 2100 2000 10000
    3 1500 2050 302500
    4 1400 1800 160000
    5 1300 1450 22500
    6 1600 1350 62500
    7 1550 1450 10000
    MSE 82500

    Exponential Smoothing with Trend α = 0.8


    β = 0.4
    F1 = 2100
    T1 = 0

    Month Demand (At) Ft=Ft-1 + α(At-1 - Ft-1) Tt= β(Ft - Ft-1) + (1-β)Tt-1 FIT (At-FIT)^2
    1 2000 2100 0 2100 10000
    2 2100 2020 -32 1988 12544
    3 1500 2084 6.4 2090.4 348572.16
    4 1400 1616.8 -183.04 1433.76 1139.7376
    5 1300 1443.36 -179.2 1264.16 1284.5056
    6 1600 1328.672 -153.3952 1175.277 180389.79662
    7 1550 1545.7344 -5.21215999999997 1540.522 89.827934618
    MSE 79145.71825

    → Since the MSE of the Exponential Smoothing with Trend method is lower than that of the SMA method , the Exponential Sm
    method , the Exponential Smoothing with Trend method's forecasts are more accurate.  

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