Gphy 423 - Population Studies 2 - Lecture Notes

GPHY 423 – POPULATION STUDIES –PART TWO
COURSE OUTLINE
1. Population and Development Inter-relationships

● Relationships/interrelationships
● Historical Perspectives
● Theories of Population Growth
2. The Demographic Transition
● Consequences of the demographic transition
● The Demographic Equation
3. Perception of Population Problems in Africa
4. Population Growth and Development
● Effects of Population Growth on key Variables- The ecosystem, Age Structure, Factors of
production and Investment
5. Management of the ecosystem for the benefit of man
● Air Resource
● Marine Resources
● Fresh water Resources
● Vegetation or Forest Resources
5. Population and Development II
● Population and the supply of and demand for the factors of production
● Demographic aspect of growth and development
● Demographic aspects of savings
● Population growth and savings in Developing countries
● Demographic aspects of Investment
● Age distribution and investment
● Demographic aspects of Productivity
● Demographic variables affecting Productivity
● Population Growth, Age and Sex Structure
6. Population Policy
● Meaning and definition of population policy
● Population Policies – Types
● Other Population related policies (Natural change policies, migration policies, population
resource policies, etc)
● Population Size, Specialization and Economies of Scale
7. Population and Planning
● Population Variables and Development Planning
● Planning for Education and Demographic Considerations
● Planning for Employment
● Planning for Health
● Demographic variables in Health Plannin
GPHY 423 – POPULATION STUDIES- II LECTURE NOTES. Lecturer-in-Charge – Mrs. Bockarie [Type
text] Page 1
8. Migration and Development
● Continuous Assessment
LECTURE 1
POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT I
1. THE RELATIONSHIPS OR INTERRELATIONSHIPS
Population and development are both dynamic and interactive concepts and their interrelationships
can be viewed in terms of demand and supply. For instance, population growth increases the
demand for food, education, health facilities, services, water, energy and other resources. It further
implies that the higher the population the more there is labour to produce more goods and services.
The relationships between these two (2) phenomena are complex, as each one affects the other in
various ways. Thus, development is people-centred and it takes place when people are both
producers and consumers. In this regard, demographic variables are both determinants and
consequences of development.
2. HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVES
There have been numerous views on debate about population. Some see population as an
impediment while others regard population growth as a stimulus to economic development. The
different views cut across the different nationalities in the World. According to the Chinese people,
population size is perceived in relation to the availability of land for agricultural production. That
is, the size of population that resources can support – the ‘optimum population’.
The Greeks regard population not with an economic undertone but from the point of view of
defence, security and government.
Plato and Aristotle advocated for stable rather a growing population. They argued that, if the latter
takes place, the political life of people in the urban areas will be chaotic when population increased
beyond a certain level.
On the other hand, mercantilists’ idea is that a large population is beneficial to a nation and the
ruling class. As this view focuses on power and wealth, proponents here believe that a growing
population is strength for power, politics, and a source of supply of soldiers and other tradesmen,
etc. Hence a common view of mercantilism is that “man was a breeder and worker for the state, a
tool whose sole function was to make the state strong (Spengler, 1972). It is argued that the
strength of a state is determined by the number of people at its disposal.
text] Page 2
3. THEORIES OF POPULATION GROWTH
Three prominent theories have been put forward by proponents of the population discourse, viz:
The negativists – are people who held the view that rapid population growth can neither promote
nor create development (i.e., pessimist theory).
Since the nineteenth century, population was perceived as an obstacle to economic development
and a reason for low living standards. In terms of people versus resources, it is argued that increase
in population depletes the earth’s resources. It therefore leads to environmental degradation and
hunger. It was believed that population growth was detrimental to growth in per capita income; in
fact, the “Malthusian trap” would be envisaged – i.e., population growth will over stretch income.
In other words, income would be swallowed by increase in population. Further still, growth in
population is deemed to harm the general welfare of people. This is referred to as the “Ricardo’s
theory of rent” (Ricardo, 1964).
The debate continued in the 1960s and 1970s and the focus was ‘whether children were an asset
or obstacle to economic development’. In addition, population growth has negative impact on
capital intensity. In principle, high population requires more homes, factories, infrastructure, etc.
to house, employ and provide for their needs and even lower workers capital and their living
standards.
The Positivist or Optimistic theory – Proponents of this theory hold the view that population
growth is not inimical to development. In fact, all the pessimist views held by Malthus and others
had been disproved as follows: First, in the last thirty (30) years the World’s population has
doubled and per capita income has also increased by about two-thirds. Secondly, as predicted by
Paul Ehrlich in his book “The Population Bomb” stating that society had reached the earth’s limit
to feed its people. This means, famine is eminent but hundreds of millions of people have not
starved. In fact, famine is a phenomenon caused by poverty or lack of funds by a section of the
population to buy food rather than absolute shortage as predicted by the population pessimists.
According to Amartya Sen, 1999, no famine exists in functioning democracy no matter the rate of
its population growth.
Thirdly, there has been a rapid increase in technological progress in both agriculture and industry
than in anytime in human history. Also, there has been equally dramatic social and institutional
innovations in the way people work, in the standard of their education, health and the extent to
which they participate in political processes (Sen, 1999, Bloom, Craig and Maloney, 2001) Rather
than been constrained in fixed resources, the prices of many raw materials have been in long - term
decline. Some part of the economy has become dematerialized or fall below their real economic
value as knowledge becomes increasingly vital assets (world banks, 1997; the task force on higher
education and society, 2000).
text] Page 3
The above trends have supported the perception of population optimists who have sought to
promote the idea that population growth can be an economic asset some of these scholars and their
assentation are as follow:
Simon Kuznets (1967) and Julian Simon for example argued that as population increases so does
the stock of human ingenuity which means, ‘larger societies take advantage of the economics of
scale and are in a better position to develop, exploit and disseminate the crease flow of knowledge
that they receive. According to Simon in his influential book “the ultimate resources (1981), he
showed that rapid population growth can lead to positive impacts on the economy. He cites as an
example, the tendency of natural resource price to decline in the long term because technology
progress induced by the growing demand of raising population. He noted over a 50-year period up
to 1950 an increase in population with a recorded high rates of total production in developed
countries while low rates of population were associated with modest growth rates in total income
(Kuznets, 1967) he concluded in his studies that the consequences of population growth are
determined by different conditions and stages of development.
Kuznets (1967) suggests that increase in population growth in developed countries over a 50-year
period up to 1950 recorded high rates of total product while low rates of population were associated
with modest growth rates in total income. It is observed from such studies that the consequences
of population growth were determined by different conditions and stages of development.
Therefore, population and development depend on the existing social, economic and institutional
conditions that interact and interrelate with each other.
However, Esther Boserup (1998) argued in favour of population growth as a stimulant to economic
development. She based her position on the following:
That, increased population densities set in place institutional capacities that direct private property.
To counter Malthus pessimist position that rapid population growth creates pressure on resources,
she argued that people are resourceful are can be stimulated to innovate especially in adversity.
She further stated that when rising population swamped traditional hunter-gatherer arrangements
and slash and burn cultivation agriculture (i.e. evolutionary trend) also became inadequate,
intensive multiannual cropping (crop rotation, etc.) was developed (Boserup, 1965, 1981). Another
recent success was the green revolution which since 1950 used 1% of more land in agriculture and
that resulted in world food production almost quadrupled.
Upward spiral
MALTHUSIAN’S
Increases wealth
SCENARIO
Consumes resources POPULATION Creates resources
text] Page 4
Increases poverty
Downward spiral
BOSERUP’S
SCENARIO
Malthusian and Boserupian Scenarios

In terms of the multiannual cropping system farmers develop in response to population growth,
she explained that farmers will amend the production process to ensure and sustain household
survival and raise levels of production and income. A range of possible responses either on the
production side or consumption side will be used. For example, on the production side, farmers
will raise output and income levels and on the consumption side, income and sustain output and
income from the farm to support the family. Hence farmer’s responses will be both to increase
production and to increase consumption. Through on farm and off – farm productivity, and manage
fertility (i.e., to reduce the number of births or number of months to feed) respectively.
THE NEUTRALIST THEORY – this theory is premised on the economic effects on demography
rather than Malthus effect. Here, the economist Adam Smith narrated the power of the market and
population growth. The statistical correlation between population and economic growth was
examined and was found to have very little significant connection. It is a common norm for
countries with rapid population growth to have a tendency for more slow growing economic, but
such a correlation disappears once other factors such as country size, openness to trade, educational
attainment, quality of civil or political institutions, etc. are taken into account.
As a dominant view since the 1980s, proponents of this school of thought like the National
Academy of science concludes in 1986 that unbalance - - - slower population growth would be
beneficial to the economic development of developing countries. In other studies, like the ‘Nation
Research Council, 1986 and many World Bank economics, it was suggested that in some countries
bigger population boost economic.
Increase area in Switch to higher yielding

Reduce fallow Regional specialization
cultivation Increase crop yields crops
INCREASE Domestic industry

AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT
text] Page 5
International
A Crafts and Trades
D B Day labouring
Rural-rural MIGRATION POPULATION PRESSURE INCREASE NON-FARM

OUTCOME
Temporary &
C seasonal migration
Rural-urban CONTROL NUMBER OF
BIRTHS
Limitation of births within Higher age of marriage Increasing celibacy

marriage
Responses to Population Pressure (sources; Grigg, 1980)

However, the overall tendency is to accord population issues that are relatively minor placed in
the context of wider policy environments.
In the developing countries, high population growth rates are related to low levels of income.
Other factors also influence population and development in poor countries. These are:
o National resource availability
o Dependency and independency of each other.
LECTURE 2.
THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
AN OVERVIEW:
Population explosion has been a topical issue throughout historical period to the present or modern
times. In this regard, Thomas Malthus wrote his first essay on the principle of population. Malthus
argued that ‘populations of all species grow ever faster until they reach the carrying capacity of
the ecosystem in which they have developed. In terms of human population, he maintained that it
doubles itself with an annual rate of increase. It is observed that the time for doubling has become
shorter in many areas leading to population explosion and subsequent shortage of food.
However, the premise of Malthus postulate was a society characterized by low technology. He
therefore suggested that the accelerated growth of population supersedes the expansion in available
food supply, which only follows a steady growth. According to Malthus, an inevitable situation
text] Page 6
will arise where the population would exceed the food resource base of the World. This situation
would lead to the occurrence of mass starvation and death. Malthus’ prediction is yet to take place
especially when he failed to recognize the power of technological improvement, which has kept
World food supply ahead of World’s population needs.
Demographic Transition Model
The changes in population growth rates and the effect on population can be shown on the
Demographic Transition Model (Population Cycle). The demographic transition theory is an
attempt to summarize an observable relationship between population growth and economic
development. It was first put forward by Warren S. Thompson in 1929. In 1945, L.W. Notastein
formulated this theory into a systematic model which established the relationship between socio-
economic development or industrialization and population growth. As earlier stated, this theory
had its root roughly with the ‘Industrial Revolution’ that affected Europe about the late eighteenth
century to the early nineteenth century. By 1800, the economy of Europe was mainly agrarian.
After 1800, the Industrial Revolution started and was followed by both the mechanical and medical
revolutions. These revolutions had positive impacts on the accelerating population and the
outcome was a steady decline in mortality followed by a steady decline in fertility.
The demographic transition model is however premised on four stages of population development
in both the developed and developing World.
STAGES:
1. Highly fluctuating societies (Primitive)
2. Early expanding societies
3. Late expanding societies, and
4. High fluctuating societies (advanced).
However, Bongaarte 1994, modified the theory with the addition of a fifth stage. According to
Bongaarte, ‘population under industrial conditions passes through five main stages (stages 1 – 4
and then stage 5 – Decline in population growth).
STAGE 1. HIGHLY FLUCTUATING SOCIETIES.
This stage is evident in primitive agricultural, non-industrial societies. It is characterized by high
death and birth rates and consequently a low increase in population which is mostly rural with a
large premium on large families. Both fertility and mortality are high but mortality is relatively
lower; and short-term fluctuations in birth and death rates. This situation applies to Europe and
North America during the pre-eighteenth century. In many developing, it is a common situation
up to the Second World War. It is still common in parts of tropical Africa, in isolated countries
with very little influence by the developed World (such as Afghanistan, Nepal, DR Congo, etc.).
text] Page 7
In other words, societies during this stage are uncivilized, undeveloped and there is high birth rate
accompanied by natural population checks and low life expectancy, low levels of economic
development, lack of both birth and death control.
STAGE 2. EARLY EXPANDING SOCIETIES.
These are societies in transition which are marked by high birth rates, falling death rates, and
consequently a rapidly increasing population. The gap between fertility and mortality rates starts
to expand. For example, mortality starts to decline because of improvements in technology and
social changes; which lead to improvement on the health of the population. The access to or
exposure to a variety of development programmes like better public and personal sanitation,
widespread personal hygiene practices, increased crop yields, nutritional improvements,
refrigeration, pasteurization, humidity and temperature control, housing, transportation and
production of goods and services, and medical advances (new skills, sterilization procedures,
antiseptic treatments, immunization and operation/surgery, etc.).
In such societies, major achievements have been obtained in previously killer diseases or severe
environmental conditions. For example, communicable diseases which formerly caused high
infant mortality put under control; incidences of famine and epidemics also decline. The outcome
was more children survived to adulthood; fertility increased and population accelerated. Hence,
there was no need for a family to produce large numbers of children just for a few to survive.
However, the large number of children became a liability or serious threat to families especially
in sharing the limited resources. Excess children from the farms started to migrate to the expanding
industrial centres and where they were welcomed as cheap sources of labour.
In much of Africa, Asia and Latin America, mortality only declined until the first half of the
twentieth century. For example, the annual average death rate only dropped to 15 per 1000 (15/000
or 15‰) while birth rate remained high at 40/000 or 40‰. In 1979, Kenya recorded one of the
highest growth rates of 4.9 in the World. In some Sub-Saharan African countries today, population
growth rates are still the highest in the World.
STAGE 3. LATE EXPANDING SOCIETIES
This stage shows a much steeper drop in mortality (i.e., 10‰) and fertility (20‰) also starts to
decline but the total population is still rising because the transition has not yet worked its way
through.
There is a further change in population growth rate which occurs or arises from the collective
effects of technological inputs in agricultural industries or agriculture and legislations controlling
child employment such that the socio-economic values of children typically decline.
It is also a stage characterized by economic development and educational advancement which
together resulted in a fall in birth rates and a slowing down of population growth. Old traditions
and taboos are also weakened for example, breakdown of the extended family system, food taboos
removed, etc.
text] Page 8
Use of contraceptives by couples to reduce family size; greater physical and financial costs on
parents, and birth rates began to fall while death rates continue to decline. Population growth at
this stage reaches its maximum.
Stage 3 was reached in the developed countries in the early nineteenth century and twentieth
century. Elsewhere, reduction was observed in the last two decades and it occurred in East and
South-East Asia. This marked reduction resulted because of family planning programmes and
socio-economic development. For example, Thailand had an annual growth rate of 1.0% between
1993 and 2000. In the same period, South Korea recorded a 0.9% annual growth rate (UNDP,
1994).
STAGE 4. HIGH FLUCTUATING SOCIETIES.
This is referred to the late transition stage. Societies in this stage are advanced and have low death
and birth rates, high populations and low growth rates. The gap between fertility and mortality
narrows again and both are now low. In other words, death rate reaches its lowest level while
fertility steadily declines causing a drop in population growth.
Most European or Western countries have completed this stage. Others completed it several
decades ago. For example, the UK completed it in 1939.
In developing countries, some have nearly completed the stage. For example, Hong Kong and
Singapore with population growth rates of 0.4% and 0.9% respectively bringing them statuses of
developed countries (USA at 0.9% and Canada1.1%). Most developing countries are still
struggling to either enter this stage or if entered, have a series of problems that slows or even
retards the conditions of this stage.
STAGE 5. DECLINE IN POPULATION GROWTH
This is referred to as the ‘post transition’ stage (Bongaarte, 1994). The mortality level tends to
stabilize, fertility continues to decline and even falls below the level of mortality. Population
growth declines at this point. In fact, a new equilibrium is achieved between birth and death rates
such that population growth is either close to zero or negative growth may even arise.
Western countries reached this stage several decades ago. For example, Italy and Portugal average
national growth rates between 1993 – 2000 are as low as 0.0%, 0.3% in UK and 0.1% in Germany.
In the same period the following registered a negative figure like – 0.2% in the Russian Federation;
- 0.4% in Hungary and - 0.8% in Latvia, etc.
The Demographic Transition Model
text] Page 9
Pre-industrial Time Post-Industrial
The stages of the demographic model can be summarized as follows:
STAGES CHARACTERISTIC REASONS COUNTRIES

S
text] Page 10
Stage 1 – Birth Rate and Death Birth Rate is high as a Typical of
High rate are both high. result of: Britain in the
Fluctuating Population growth is 18th century
slow and fluctuating. ● Lack of family and the Least
planning Economically
● High Infant Developed
Mortality Rate: Countries
putting babies in (LEDC's)
the 'bank' today.
● Need for workers
in agriculture
● Religious beliefs
● Children as
economic assets
Death Rate is high

because of:
● High levels of
disease
● Famine
● Lack of clean
water and
sanitation
● Lack of health
care
● War
● Competition for
food from
predators such as
rats
● Lack of education
text] Page 11
Stage 2 – Birth Rate remains Death Rate is falling as Typical of
Early high. Death Rate is a result of: Britain in 19th
Expanding falling. Population century;
begins to rise steadily. ● Improved health Bangladesh;
care (e.g. Nigeria
Smallpox
Vaccine)
● Improved
Hygiene (Water
for drinking
boiled)
● Improved
sanitation
● Improved food
production and
storage
● Improved
transport for food
● Decreased Infant
Mortality Rates
Stage 3 - Birth Rate starts to ● Family planning Typical of

Late fall. Death Rate available Britain in late
Expanding continues to fall. ● Lower Infant 19th and early
Population rising. Mortality Rate 20th century;
● Increased China; Brazil
mechanization
reduces need for
workers
● Increased
standard of living
● Changing status
of women
Stage 4 – Birth Rate and Death Typical of

Low Rate both low. USA; Sweden;
Fluctuating Population steady. Japan; Britain
text] Page 12
Is the model universally applicable?
CONSEQUENCES OF THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
Like all models, the demographic transition model has its limitations. It failed to consider, or
to predict, several factors and events in advanced or developed societies; and in countries
undergoing transition:
Two quiet separate consequences of the demographic transition exist, namely:
● Problems for advanced societies or developed countries

● Problems for countries undergoing transition
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES –
● Increased aged population – an imbalance in the population structures of developed

countries results after completion of the demographic transition causing a progressive
increase in number of older people. That is, the total of older people exceeds those that
are younger. In this case, considerable strain is put on both the social services and the
economically active people who have to support the elderly. For example, during the mid-
1990s, the over-75s population increased rapidly in the UK reaching a total of 3.5 million.
These people mostly live alone in highly concentrated areas called ‘retirement homes’.
In some countries, the aged constitute 30% of the national population.
● Fertility fluctuation – after Second World War, the population in developed countries
encountered substantial increase in birth rates which had a serious economic consequence
such as investment to expand schools, universities and places of employment. Birth rates
dropped in the late 1950s to the early 1960s, and then increased in the late 1960s. These
fluctuations caused enormous difficulties in planning, etc.
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES PROBLEMS
The transition consequences in developing countries fat exceed those in the developed countries,
and even have universal effects because majority of the World’s population is found in these
countries. These include:
o Faster population growth rate – during transition, population growth rate occurs at a much
faster rate than that experienced by Europe during its transition stage. The presence of
high technology, medical and food aid and modern life supporting facilities have made
text] Page 13
rapid improvements on death rates (i.e., decline in mortality). The decline in the rate of
mortality in developing countries is many times faster than that experienced in Europe.
With current growth rates of over 3% per year in developing countries, cultural habitat
of people is yet to change, achieving the demographic transition and reduction in
population are very much doubtful.
o Political instability – results from a world comprising of a group of developed nations
that have stable populations and high living standards; and a group of underdeveloped
nations characterized by high growth rates and low living standards. This instability is
observed in the ‘North-South’ debate. High population concentration in developing
countries (e.g., Asia, Africa, etc.) causes stress and pressure on land and other natural
resources.
ASSUMPTIONS OF THE DEMOGRAPHIC MODEL –
Birth rates in several MEDCs have fallen below death rates (Germany, Sweden). This has caused,
for the first time, a population decline which suggests that perhaps the model should have a fifth
stage added to it.
The model assumes that in time all countries pass through the same four stages. It now seems
unlikely, however, that many developing countries, especially in Africa, will ever become
industrialized.
The model assumes that the fall in the death rate in Stage 2 was the consequence of
industrialization. Initially, the death rate in many British cities rose, due to the insanitary
conditions which resulted from rapid urban growth, and it only began to fall after advances were
made in medicine. The delayed fall in the death rate in many developing countries has been due
mainly to their inability to afford medical facilities. In many countries, the fall in the birth rate
in Stage 3 has been less rapid than the model suggests due to religious and/or political opposition
to birth control (Brazil), whereas the fall was much more rapid, and came earlier, in China
following the government-introduced ‘one child’ policy.
The timescale of the model, especially in several South-east Asian countries such as Hong Kong
and Malaysia, is being squashed as they develop at a much faster rate than did the early
industrialized countries.
Countries that grew as a consequence of emigration from Europe (USA, Canada, and Australia)
did not pass through the early stages of the model.
5. THE DEMOGRAPHIC EQUATION
The demographic equation occurs or is drawn from the interplay of factors of population increase
or decrease and migration (i.e., population relocation). Relocation occurs across political
boundaries thereby affecting population structure of both the origin and destination nations.
text] Page 14
In summary, the demographic equation is the contribution made to regional population change
over time by the combination of natural change (births and deaths differences) and net migration
(i.e., difference between in-migration and out-migration).
AN ASSESSMENT OF THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION THEORY
According to Lorimar, this is a useful theory which shows a general transition tendency.
However, it may convey a false sense of uniformity and simplicity. It is a model that showed
what happened in Europe in terms of its population change and modernization. One can argue
that it only describes historical events and has little application to today’s developing countries
where different precipitating conditions prevail, such as:
● Replication of the model – according to the model, there is the implication that what had
happened in the developed countries (Western Europe) will be replicated in the
developing countries during their modernization process. This is a false assumption in
the present day developing World. In reality rapid advancement in science and
technology in recent years have accelerated decline in mortality rate. By use of
developments in medicine, preventive health care, agriculture and infrastructure, etc
earlier used in the developed countries, rapid improvement in mortality conditions have
been achieved. Also used are corresponding measures to control fertility like family
planning programmes, etc.
● Variation in mortality and fertility gap – Birth rates in developing countries are higher
than those recorded in stage one of the models in Europe. Negative fertility levels are also
experienced in Europe but this is not the case for developing countries. This may be
argued in support of the theory that developing countries have not attained the right level
of modernization to influence that. In addition, not all countries follow similar patterns
in the modernization process. Therefore, there is variation in the rate of decline and
ultimate lows of fertility levels from country to country.
● Growth rates and birth rates differences – At the start of the transition in Europe, the
population growth rate was between 1.0 – 1.5%; while in the 1950s – 1960s, it was 2.0%
and between 1960 – 1970s, it was 2.4% and 3.0% in the 1990s in developing countries.
Birth rates on the other hand also varies. It started around 35‰ in Western Europe where
it is about 55‰ in developing countries.
J.C. Caldwell, a renowned critic of this model opposes its applicability in developing countries,
and put forward the following points:
1. Economic development is not a pre-requisite to fertility decline. Instead, he argues that fertility
decline precedes industrialization, emphasizes the dissemination of ideas through the
international network of mass media. He opined that if developing countries receive information
from the same source there is the tendency for them to be influenced by ideals put across. For
example, if the focus is on smaller families (family planning), they may be influenced through
media engagement and use of contraceptives. This will ultimately result in decline in fertility.
text] Page 15
2. It is not always true that economic development is followed by fertility decline. To illustrate
his point, Caldwell cited the case of Taiwan, which is a country that has experienced rapid
economic development but still promoting an integrated extended family setting.
3. In the case of children either as assets or liabilities to their families, Caldwell argues that, it is
individuals who take decisions in the family rather than the society, hence the focus should be
the family. In developing countries, the family is the most important unit of production but in the
modern society, the system is modernized and capitalist oriented. It is therefore argued that in
developing countries, wealth flows from children to parents, therefore, the more children a family
has the more inputs and wealth that will flow to the parents.
In the capitalist system, children are liabilities to their parents – i.e., have to meet the cost of their
education, clothing, feeding, etc. Wealth in this system flows from parents to children. This
theory propounded by Caldwell is known as the “Intergenerational wealth flow theory”. He
concluded that “parents in the developed World are compelled to spend more on their children
and there is tendency for them to modify their expenditure on children and also to desire smaller
families.
LECTURE 3.
PERCEPTION OF POPULATION PROBLEMS IN AFRICA
The last two decades and a half have seen slow but growing awareness and development. African
nations in the Kilimanjaro programmed action of January 1984 as well as statements at the
international conference on population in Mexico in the same year and another in Cairo in 1994
have established the principal that population is central to development by series of public
pronouncements. Africa countries have recognized that in order to improve the quality of life
there is need for effective programmes to reduce current levels of high fertility and mortality.
Also, there is need to contain the undesirable effects of the uneven distribution of population
within countries of the sub – region.
According to Ohadike (1985) “this marks a significant departure and change from a 1970s.” in
the 1970s for example, African countries were quick to point to china and India saying, if they
could cope with their very large population, then African had no cause for alarm. The change of
attitude towards greater concern for population issue has to do with a growing awareness of
governments of the impact of demographic change on their national development strategies. The
interrelationship of [population and development is to be fully appreciated in African. As
Ohadike rightly puts it, part of this antipathy drives from a rather simplistic assumption that the
continent potential resources are monumental and could be tapped whenever required. In the
same vein such attitudes pin much hope on the actual tendency for man to adapt and resort to
finding solutions to a crisis whenever it comes up. Essentially awareness of the importance of
the population factor – though now life in African – has been relatively low compared with the
experience of other major regions of the developing world. The same holds true of the efforts of
text] Page 16
African governments in integrating population variables in their economic and social
development planning process.
Amidst some degree if progress since the 1970s, the African situation still calls for serious socio
– economic and demographic evaluation, reformation and harmonization of development goals
and objectives.
The population issue raised two (2) opposing schools of thought. The first is what is referred to
as the NEO – MALTHUSIAN THEORIES i.e., an adoption and reinforcement of Malthus views
proponents of this school are intellectuals and politicians who share the common awareness that
“rapid pop growth depicts gloom for national development and international development
prospects”. The arguments here are numerous but in brief, all hinge on the slow pace of socio –
economic and infrastructural development of African countries and the developing countries in
general in the phase or era of rapid population growth. He argument underscores the
pervasiveness of poverty – i.e. low living standards, malnutrition, wide spread illiteracy, disease
and deprivation and environment. Degradation it is presumed that problems would be much
manageable if not kept to their minimum if population was not growing so fast.
On the other hand, there is the ‘developmentlist school’ The developmentlists reject the notion
that rapid population growth is a major problem which third world countries should surmount if
they must overcome their poverty. The issue, they believe, is the inequitable use of available
world resources whereby the developed countries with their low rates of population growth
consume disproportionately large share of world resources in energy, minerals, agriculture and
livestock, forest based products, marine products, etc. many development-lists argue that not
only do the developed countries consume far more resources per capital but that In spite of
growing global interdependence, they often do so carelessly and wastefully.
Like the dependency theorists, the developmental-lists also point to the exploitation of other
economic and particularly commercial relations in the developing countries. They argued that
the existing interdependence of the global economic system has created greater disparities
between the developed and developing countries. Consequently, the latter has been drawn to
perpetual dependence on the former in an environment that has been growing increasingly hostile
to the provision of international assistance to the vey needy third world countries. There has been
a situation of deterioration in Africa trade because of her main reliance on the export of primary
commodities whose value has been falling and fluctuating. Even free trade, which ought to be a
significant channel of global interdependence, is routed in neo-colonial exploitation tendencies
with multi- national co-operations (MNCs) surveying as instruments used by developed countries
to manipulate the scene to the detriment of African countries.
The developmental-lists have refuted the linkage between population growth and current good
crisis in African. While they recognized that food production has declined particularly in the
recent past, they argued that this has been due to unfavourable climate and ecological conditions,
insufficient supply of land because of the lack of effective reform policies, governmental neglect
text] Page 17
of agriculture due to insufficient financial and technical support and poor programme
management – weak administration.
In discounting the relevance of population pressure developmental-lists submit that the provision
of family planning and contraceptive devices alone could not check population growth. Rather,
economic developments, raising levels of living and egalitarian and progressive income
distribution will work better to reduce the rapid rate of population growth. As Ohadike rightly
puts it both positions treated separately can only provide partial and incomplete explanation of
how best to deal with consequences of high fertility and rapid population growth.
There are merits and objectivity on either side. But of great importance to the future socio-
economic evolution of African is the extent to which government of the region judiciously
combine both positions. In brief there is absolute need to implement family planning programs
with balanced development and institutional adjustments. Essentially therefore for population
policies and programs to be meaningful, they should be fully anchored on satisfying economic
and social needs of society and should not be conceived in isolation from the realities of the
economic social and cultural situation and relationships. The broader social and economic
concept of demographic change should be given adequate attention and consideration.
It must be emphasized that a comprehensive and inclusive population policy should be concerned
with population and development issues as an integrated whole and in its totality.
For a population policy to succeed, the full effective and meaningful participation of the entire
population in the implementation of population development policies and programmes must be
ensured to this end, the policy must not only be all embracing but as well, the programmes must
be effective and the message must be put across to the people (e.g. The new health policy for
pregnant – suckling mothers and under five children in Sierra Leone in the most efficient way.
LECTURE 4.
POPULATION GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT
1. POPULATION GROWTH AND ITS EFFECTS ON KEY VARIABLES
1. THE ECOSYSTEM
An ecosystem derives its name from ‘ecology’ – which is concerned only with the environment
but the organisms in the environment and all the complex interrelationships within the
environment. The ecosystem is man’s relationship with both animate and inanimate components
of the environment. Critical questions of economic development, industrialization and
population controls are all bound up with the ecological problems.
text] Page 18
Ecology is therefore concerned not only with the environment but with organisms in the
environment and their relationship with one another and their surroundings.
ECOSYSTEM simply refers to the ecological system pertaining to any particular location. The
effect of population distribution and growth can be shown as follows:
(a). landforms > man > landforms: this implies, landforms affect man, hence man can also make
various modifications of the landform through the processes of road house (infrastructural
development), etc.
(b). climate > man > climate: rapid population will affect climate and it also affect man. Climate
is the most dominant factor which affects all living things such as plants on whom man depends
for food and other resources. Through man’s activities climatic variables are altered like rainfall,
sunshine, temperature, etc.
(c). Water > MAN: the life of man depends on fresh and marine water, where water does not
exist; a serious threat is posed to man’s survival. Man does not need fresh water for this
consumption but also for agriculture. Thus, water is an asset for man.
(d). Vegetation > Man: vegetation is closely related to climate type and the type o agriculture.
Man’s activities like lumbering, farming, clearing for construction, etc alter the natural
vegetation.
(e). Soil > Man: soil constitutes the basic ingredients for agricultural especially the soil quality.
Soil type vary from region to region. Hence, some regions have rich soil, other have poor soils
for agriculture. Soil mineral quantity is another important ingredient which also determines the
economic activities of a region.
2. AGE STRUCTURE – A rapid or growing population normally has a high proportion of the
population in the dependent age. This implies there is need to provide schools, hospital
(educational and health facilities), housing etc. for the youthful population. In other words, a high
proportion of the national income is allocated in providing the needs of children in the areas of
health and education, etc. thus, the burden of caring for this age (youthful age) rely on the small
proportion of the working age. This means government will be completed to indulge or undertake
what could be referred to as DEMOGRAPHIC investment rather than economic investment.
Rapid population growth will also induce rural – urban migration, which creates attendant
problems in both rural and urban areas where the population leaves and in urban areas where it
moves into. For example, the active work force living the rural areas will leave a vacuum and
when they get to urban centres’ problems like congestion, pressure for employment come rates,
promiscuity and other result.
3. FACTORS OF PRODUCTION
text] Page 19
Factors prices such as money, income – that is, expenditure born in acquiring the factors of
production are important variables in the demand and supply of these factors.
The demand for a factor of production is generally an indirect or derived demand that varies
according to the extent that resources are used in the production of final products. The demand
for labour, for examples I derived from the demand of the commodities produced by the labourer.
In terms of the long – term demand for a factor of production, it depends on the following factors:
population growth, average level of income, the state or level of science and technology
developments, the institutional patterns and the price – cost structure.
The demand for natural resources depends among other things on the size and distribution of the
population. For example, a growing population implies a greater demand for resources of all kind
(like food, water, air, land, space, mineral resources, construction materials, etc) for a variety of
purposes. The world population growth in developing countries has been accelerating rather fast.
This means the demand for and price for factors of production are vastly on the increase.
(a). LABOUR – Man is both a consumer and a producer but population size and growth affect
both demand for and the supply of labour. Hence, the higher the population the higher the
proportion of people in the labour force. This also means the greater the demand for labour and
consequently the higher the factor price.
The labour force of any population depends on the size of that population broken down into the
various sex, age groups and the participation rates of each of these groups.
Fertility, mortality and migration patterns determine population size by age and sex while the
rate of labour force participation tend to be determined economically and culturally. Note the
following points about the relationship between population growth and labour supply:
(i). population growth implies an increase in supply of factors of labour which largely depends
on the nature of growth increase in labour supply is immediate if population increase is caused
by in- migration rather than by natural increase.
(ii). Fertility and mortality – are important determinants of labour supply but each affects labour
supply differently. for example, an increase in fertility may result in age distribution
characterized by a higher dependency burden.
Mortality decline (low deaths) may also increase the dependency burden on the population
though not as much as in the case with increase in fertility. An increase in population creates
requirement to expand the potential for capital formation needed to rise the existing per capital
income or consumption. This demands us about the two divergent debates of population growth
– optimists and pessimists. Hence, the optimists stress that population growth can stimulate both
technological change and the adoption of techniques that will make for economies of scale and
therefore promote economic growth.
text] Page 20
The pessimists however, assert that rapid population growth hinders the growth of per capital
incomes. This directly reduces rates of savings and investments and further aggravates mass
unemployment and poverty.
4. INVESTMENT – This can be done in several ways like actual spending for the purchase of
capital goods and the acquisition of security or financial claims, educational expenditure, health
improvement and general living conditions condition improvement etc. are human capital
investment. Capital formations vary depending on the purchase intended. In demographic term
capital investments vary and may be categorized in two (2):
(a). Direct productive capital, and
(b). Non – direct productive capital.
Direct productive capital is investment in enterprises (businesses);
Non – direct productive capital is investment in basic services which are not directly productive
themselves but are essential for productive activities
The effects of the size and density on investment a production that is large signifies having a
large work force and it needs large capital to provide the workers with the needed capital
investment. This also requires a higher investment in infrastructural and human capital. A smaller
country may worse off than a bigger country because a larger population have the benefit of
economics of scale (i.e., more labourers available, making labour cheaper) and other economies
of scale activity conditions like increased division of labour, larger – scale productivity, etc.
What bring about income economies of scale?
It is caused by high population density and more economic activities such as industrial location
in capital arties, mines in and other locations.
Age distribution and investment – this have to do with the fact that the needs of individuals and
their economic nature are both associated with age. The age composition is important especially
in terms of education. For example, a large proportion of school going children implies greater
proportion of national income will be spent on education and health.
Age structure also relates to demand for housing. Other things being equal, a country with an
ageing population (housing and health needs) will need more or higher investment. The higher
the rate of capital accumulation or investment to stimulate growth and maintain the existing level
of income. Investment can be either demographic or economic:
(i). Demographic Investments – are the investments required to maintain the prevailing level of
living or to absorb the impacts of population growth despite increase in population.
text] Page 21
(ii). Economic investment is investment that tends to increase the level of incomes of the
population.
On the basis of capital investment, the higher the rate of population growth, the higher the
demographic investment and the lower the economic growth.
LECTURE 5.
MANAGEMENT OF THE ECOSYSTEM FOR THE BENEFIT OF MAN.
There are basically two (2) types of resources – renewable and non-renewable resources. Man,
throughout the ages has depended on these two types of resources either directly or indirectly for
his very survival.
Renewable resources have always played a vital role for the survival of man. Hence, Thomas
Malthus concerned about the lack of coordination between the rate of human increase and the
patterns of growth of these resources. Through his activities, man has changed so many
ecosystems but there is a constant shift in the nature or characteristics of renewable resources.
Through modern technology, new agriculture systems, crop types, new methods of animal
husbandry and a few others have been introduced in areas where they were hitherto unknown.
However, the environment and ecosystems will still function in the same way as natural systems
if only man has not radically altered the patterns of organization of interrelationships among the
organisms within the ecosystems.
Technology apart, man’s environment offers him a cycle of activities in so far as resource
utilization is concerned
Degradation of resources especially without due regard to environmental quality for sustainable
development can have serious consequences for the functioning aspect of the ecosystem. Ecology
and bio-economy are therefore important components of national development. Maintenance,
conservation, management and utilization of natural resources as well as the welfare of man
depend very much on a clear understanding in this area. An intelligent use of renewable natural
resources implies reaching out to maintain an ecological balance between man’s needs and
nature’s long-term capacity to satisfy them. Where technology is not introduced and renewable
resources are exploited at a rapid rate, disaster may set in for the environment and consequently
yields from renewable resources will decline to the point that they may not be acquired readily
from nature. Unwise use of renewable resources is very detrimental to man’s survival. It is within
this context that the management of the various types of resources available to man is very
important. Sustainable development has become a major concern of government and
international agencies basically because of the realization that exploitation of the environment
without due regard to future generations depicts danger.
VARIOUS RESOURCES:
text] Page 22
a) Air resources – are basically made up of oxygen, carbon dioxide. In Africa, apart from the
many urban centres and industrial countries, our air resources are relatively free of the serious
pollution that exist in developed countries. Rural Africa, for example, enjoys an atmosphere free
of any pollution apart from the occasional bush burning and micro air pollution in the domestic
homes. Nevertheless, modernization especially industrialization is seriously exposing the
African environment at a rather rapid rate to air pollution. One way this is done is the increasing
use of the automobile by expanding populations in the cities.
b) Marine resources – these are resources obtained from the oceans and seas and these are very
varied in nature and very necessary for the nutrition of mankind. Sea food can be limitless if its
removal is well controlled and maintained. It is in this respect that there are laws pertaining to
the use of the seas. Example – the international law of the sea which defines the number of miles
a country can put around its shores within which unauthorized users can be prosecuted. The same
law also permits the existence of the international waters; within which anybody can exploit
resources without any restrictions. Even then environmentalists and covers of animals (whales,
seagulls, turtles, etc.) have often made it impossible for a laissey-faire approach in the utilization
of resources in international waters.
STEPS TO CONSERVE
1. Restrict the use of explosives
2. Coral reefs must be protected since they are the major sources of sea food.
3. Oil pollution from ships must be avoided since the oil cover tends to prevent marine living
organisms from obtaining oxygen.
4. Pollution from land-based factories must be avoided as a matter of cause.
5. Industrial fishing, utilizing ocean factories should be controlled.
6. Mangrove vegetation which abounds the African coast and other international waters must be
protected. 7. There should be judicious use of certain resources since their over exploitation can
easily lead to their extinction such as whales, seals and turtles.
c) Fresh-water resources – these include those obtained from rivers, lakes, ponds, dams, etc.
Many Africans tend to prefer fresh water fishes to marine fishes basically because of the taste.
Another important element is that fresh water resources are common in many countries. But this
is not the case with marine resources especially in land-locked countries. It is in this light that
special attention be paid to fresh water resources which can readily be depleted depending on the
climatic type. Furthermore, some rivers, lakes and ponds dry up during the dry season but this is
not so with the seas and oceans. Fishes of all types, crocodiles, hippos, turtles, frogs and many
other animals all live in fresh water resources. Their conservation is a must since the economy
of certain communities depends very much on these water bodies.
text] Page 23
STEPS TO CONSERVE - MEASURES UNDER MARINE RESOURCES.
● The activities of fishermen must be monitored - fishing regulated.

● The water shed has to be protected by putting in place mechanism to control deforestation
and the wanton clearing of the vegetation.
● Irrigation projects should be based on well-established feasibility studies.
d) Vegetation or Forest resources - Extraction of resources from the forest such as timber is
not in itself wrong. Sustainable exploitation in accordance with the precepts of conservation is
perfectly legitimate, indeed commendable. But non-sustainable exploitation that ravages the
forest vegetation is calamitous. For these resources provide valuable products and functions that
are often irreplaceable:
1. They provide timber and fuel wood.
2. They provide a wide range of raw materials and have some medicinal purposes.
3. They provide and nurture a variety of wildlife and biological diversity including edible fruits
4. Forests protect the soil from erosion, leaching and excessive heat.
CONSERVATION MEASURES
1. Establish forest reserves and game parks and protects certain wildlife and plant species from
wanton exploitation.
2. Legislative laws and penalties to ensure the protection of forest resources and take necessary
measures such as the service of well-motivated and paid forest guards to enforce the law.
3. Design and promote alternative and cheap energy sources that would minimize the dependence
on fuel wood – example, the use of magic stoves, gas cookers, etc.
4. Promote reforestation programmes to ensure that trees are cultivated wherever the forest is cut
down for timber and other purposes.
5. Promote mass sensitization and awareness raising against reckless exploitation of forest
resources and ensure that such programmes target the grass root population.
LECTURE 6
text] Page 24
POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT II
1. POPULATION AND THE SUPPLY OF AND DEMAND FOR THE FACTORS OF

PRODUCTION
Factor prices are an important variable with regard to the demand and supply of factors of
production. Factor prices constitute a major determinants of money incomes. Expenditure source
in acquiring factors of production are incomes to the owners of these factors. Just as product
prices ration finished goods among consumers so does resource prices allocate scarce resources
among various firms and industries. Factor prices play a major role in determining the quantities
of land, labour and capital which are to be combined in the production process.
The demand for a factor of production is generally indirect or derived demand which varies
according to the extent that resources are used in the production of final products. The demand
for labour is derived from the demand for the goods that are produced by the labour. The long-
term demand for a factor of production depends on a number of factors. The principle of which
are:
Population growth, average level of income, state of science and technology, price-cost structure
and institutional patterns. The derived nature of the source of demand imply inter earlier that the
strength of demand for any resource will depend on the capability of the resource to produce the
good and the market price of the good it is producing. A resource that is highly productive in
turning out a commodity that is highly valued by society would be in great demand and vice
versa. (How does population influence demand for natural resources?)
The demand for natural resources depends among other things on the size and distribution of the
population. A growing population implies a greater demand for resources of all kinds – for food,
water, air, mineral resources, construction materials, land and space for a variety of purposes. On
the other hand, the distribution of population between urban and rural areas and agricultural and
non-agricultural economic activities influence the nature of demand for resources. Since the
highly urban non- agricultural population requires inter earlier, less land but more industrial raw
materials and supply of energy per capita than an agricultural population.
The world population growth especially in developing countries has been accelerating rather fast
lately and there has been an increasing concentration of population in urban areas. Each addition
to the population means an additional increment of basic resources necessities such as food,
water, shelter and space.
A considerable number of authors have expressed pessimism with regards to the effect of
population growth on natural resources. These are neo-Malthusian theorists who argue that
diminishing returns are bound to set in in the wake of rapid population growth. They submit that
the increasing use of natural resources as a result of population growth has a tendency to lower
the standard of living.
text] Page 25
a) Labour- Man is a consumer as well as a producer. Population size and growth affect both the
demand for and supply of labour. By the total supply of labour is meant the total number of man-
hours that the population is able and willing to supply and this depends on the size of the
population as well as the proportion of the population willing to work and the number of hours
each individual is willing to work.
Imbalance between population size and natural resources (say land in agrarian economies)
brought about the concepts of over-population, population pressure and high population density.
In a more definitive sense, the labour force coming from any population depends on the size of
the population broken down into various sex and age groups and the participation rate for each
of these groups. Whereas population size by age and sex is determined by trends in fertility,
mortality and migration patterns. Participation rates tend to be economically and culturally
determined.
The following points should be noted about the relationship between population growth and
labour supply:
1. First by population growth implies an increase supply of the factor of labour but depends
largely on the nature of population growth. Increase in labour supply, for instance is immediate
if the increase in population is brought about by immigration. If it is through natural increase
(more births) there will be a time lag since it would take some 10-15 years before the cohort of
newly born manifests itself in the labour force. Furthermore, the ultimate impact of population
growth on employment may come about as a result of higher effective demand from the
population at large for goods and services to which production must respond. Population growth
resulting from an excess of births over deaths in rural areas of an economy may create pressure
for out-migration into urban areas to the extent that the migrants tend to be of working age the
resultant population growth in the urban areas will have an immediate positive effect on labour
supply. On the other hand, out migration will have an immediate negative effect on domestic
labour supply.
2. Fertility and mortality levels are important determinants of labour supply but they will affect
labour supply differently. For example, an increase in fertility will result in an age distribution
characterized by a high dependency burden contrast. In contrast, the same acceleration of
population due to a mortality decline may increase the dependency burden of the population but
not by as much as fertility increase.
When population is increasing it becomes necessary to expand the potential for capital formation
needed to raise the existing per capita income or consumption. There is an on-going debate
between two groups – the population pessimists and the population optimists. On the one hand,
the pessimists assert that rapid population growth hinders the growth of per capita incomes
thereby reducing rates of savings and investment and aggravating mass unemployment and
poverty. The optimists on the other hand, stress that population growth can stimulate both
technological change and the adoption of techniques that will make for economies of scale and
therefore promotes economic growth.
text] Page 26
DEMOGRAPHIC ASPECT OF GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT: SAVINGS,
INVESTMENTS AND PRODUCTIVITY.
In recent years there has been growing interest in the demographic aspect of economic
development. An important factor was the emergence in developing countries of new
demographic trends in the wake of declining mortality and high levels of fertility leading to an
increase in population growth. These phenomena together with better understanding of the
processes of economic growth and demographic change have contributed much to an increase
knowledge of the demographic-economic relationship. However, this knowledge is far from
complete and substantial gap still remains.
Economic growth depends primarily on the nation’s resources, the efficiency with which they
are used and the institutional framework within which the economy operates. Specifically, the
output of the economy given the institutional framework can be seen as a function of the volume
of human, natural and capital resources and their levels of productivity. Population is only one
of the variables which affects the factors of production and there are differences in opinion as to
the relative importance of the demographic as compared with other factors. According to some
authors, demographic factors have only a limited bearing on economic growth while others claim
that these factors exert considerable influence on economic growth. One reason for the lack of
complete understanding of these relationships is the lack of adequate data and information. A
complete understanding will require the construction of a general equilibrium model.
Savings and investments together with finance may be regarded as the three stages of capital
formation. Savings may be defined as the activity by which production which would otherwise
be used for current consumption is not used for that purpose and so becomes available for other
purposes. Investment is the activity by which resources are actually committed to the production
of capital goods.
Demographic aspects of savings - these include:
1. Population size and density – arguments regarding the savings potential have centred mainly
on higher levels of per capita public expenditures in small nations. The argument is that a country
with a small population is likely to be worse off than one with a large population in so far as the
maintenance of administration and other public services require some minimum expenditure
which increases not necessarily proportionately with the size of population.
If this argument is valid then one would expect per capita savings for smaller nations to be lower.
An empirical research was undertaken which does not, however, support this theory. But this
does not mean that the theory is invalid. As far as specific categories of expenditure were
concerned, the empirical model shows that only in general administration and defence is the
theory supported.
2. Age distribution – the age distribution is important because the age structure of the population
is the result of past level of mortality, migration and fertility. Since consumption needs are
text] Page 27
associated with the age of the individual, total consumption requirement and therefore savings
are not independent of the age distribution. The age distribution determines the dependency ratio
or dependency burden. Giving a level of productivity the higher the dependency ratio the lower
the per capita income will be and therefore, the lower would be the savings potential. In other
words, higher dependency ratio tends to depress the level of savings, all other things remaining
constant.
3. Effects of household size on consumption and savings - Empirically, a younger age

distribution usually accompanied by a large average household size. The significance of
household size for consumption and savings is twofold. There is a positive correlation between
household size and household income and usually larger families tend to spend more on
consumption of different kinds. An empirical evidence suggests that the consumption evidence
dominate the income effect which implies a negative effect on savings.
Another factor is inertia or habit formation. When family size increases consumption it may not
adapt immediately. Thus savings will decline if family size increases and family income remains
the same. There is also a positive effect of large family size. That is, a large family may enjoy
economies of scale.
4. Effects of population growth and savings on economic growth - Population growth is

associated with a higher total demand for goods but implies that at the same time an increase
potential for production. The effects of population growth on consumption and savings will thus
depend on the consequences the increase on population would have for employment and income.
If income rises as a direct consequence of population growth the question of whether savings
would rise or remain constant would depend on whether the increase in income exceeded, fall
short of or equalled the increase in consumption.
THE DEMOGRAPHIC ASPECTS OF PRODUCTIVITY.
Meaning of population – productivity refers to an index of the efficiency of the economy in

general or a part of it to produce in relation to inputs used. Hence, its focus is the relationship of
what the economy produces and how much input is needed to obtain in output or population.
Total production – inputs = Net production
Production is generally the ratio of the total production output and inputs or equals the net
production. Labour productivity is most generally accepted as overall measure of the economy.
Productivity is affected by the following demographic variables such as population size,
economics of scale.
text] Page 28
7. POPULATION POLICES
A polices is simply a plan or statement of intentions intended to accomplish a desired goal(s). a

population policy is therefore a statement by government, a social setting or population agency,
of population objectives and the methods of achieving these objectives.
In most cases, government statement about population polices are clearly oriented toward
Malthusian tone. Therefore, the common assumption about population in most countries is that
there is rapid population growth and that needs to be reduced through specific population policies
(example, family planning, etc.). When such policies are adopted their impacts can be felt over
short, medium and long – term time frames. Population policies are relevant instruments to
correct population issues which are a major concern in all countries. Population issues in
developed countries most commonly identified are HIV/AIDS, population ageing and low
fertility. In developing countries, the most frequent population issues in rank order are
HIV/AIDS, infant mortality and material mortality while high fertility and rapid population
growth ranked eighth and ninth prospectively.
At national or state level population polices often include broader issues like fertility, mortality,
migration (immigration and emigration), urbanization, resources development or environmental
management etc. all of these broader issues are considered for the future or long – term
development of the country (i.e., components of national population policy).
On the other hand, national population policies consist of basic objectives and set priorities and
are often implement in three different ways;
(a). state – driven
(b). market – driven, and
(c) culture – driven.
STATE – DRIVEN APPROACH – these are policies directly designed and delivered especially
in socialist countries, or by an agency of the state like the governments ministry of health and
sanitation or a home affairs ministry, etc. some of these policies are free health care in children
and pregnant or suckling mothers (reduce material mortality); UK’s national health service
(NHS), OR Home office dealing with immigration and emigration issues.
MARKET DRIVEN POLICIES – are policies indirectly implemented by the states through
established agencies like NGOs, private entities, etc. These policies are designed and
implemented by business minded intermediaries especially when the state cannot deliver the
intended services effectively for the achievement of the intended demographic change to be
derived or achieved in a range of development policies where some control is exercised by the
state (i.e., school system, taxation system, etc.). A case in point is that if the state has the
preference for free market solution to economic problems like demographic imbalance, indirect
text] Page 29
polices are used which have the capacity to achieve greater population change than direct
policies.
CULTURE DRIVEN – POLICIES -: These polices ensure management of population change

through level and patterns of individual’s behaviour or culture. Culture values are promoted
which directly affect reproductive behaviour and objectives and often not easily changed by
government for political reasons. For example, is the cultural desire for lower fertility in East
Asia in a period of increasing incomes which agrees with direct policies to reduce fertility
through family planning programs.
However, culture influenced countries sub- Sahara Africa before and after independence (1960s
– 1980s) to encourage high population growth, but around the mud – 1980s, effort or policies
were adopted often against the wishes and behaviour of the populace to reduce population growth
rate, Example the Roman Catholic Church.
LASTLY, the impacts of population policies may either be direct or indirect. Direct policies in the
sense their aims are explicit – that is, they seek to effect the population characteristics and are
designed and implemented by government. Indirect policies are the deliberate consequences of
polices and also have other explicit target(s).
TYPES OF POLICY
Policy focus Direct Indirect
(a). Natural change:
▪ Fertility and reproductive health
▪ Mortality
(b) Population distribution:
▪ Rural development
▪ Urbanization
(c) Migration policies:
▪ Immigration
▪ Emigration
(d) Population resources policies:
▪ Education
▪ Knowledge
text] Page 30
▪ health
GOVERNMENT POLICIES ON POPULATION GROWTH IN AFRICA
Over the past three decades, population growth in Africa was viewed as too high. The view dated
back as far as the 1974 population conference in Bucharest, and later there will be an economic
development which direct lower fertility and population growth.
Below are trends of population growth perception in the content over time. In 1976 a third of
African government realized having rapid population growth, and by 2005, this rapid rise in
population saw the adoption of population policies to lower growth rate. Hence, 35 countries out
of the 53 in Africa enacted polices to lower population growth.
In the period 2000 – 2005, ten countries in Africa experienced a 3% or more growth rate, nine of
these felt it was too high, 7 implemented a policy to lower while Benin Sierra Leone and Somalia
did not intervene. 21 countries had a growth between 2 and 3%, 15 of these felt it was too high,
and used policies to lower it, 6 felt it was satisfactory, 3 had programs to maintain the current level
and 3 never intervene. 15 countries had a growth rate between 1 to 2%; 10 of these felt it was too
high and enacted policy to lower it, it had no policy or aimed at maintaining the current level. Only
Gabon with a population of about 1.5millon people has a policy to raise its population growth in
Africa, and only 7 countries had a less than 1% growth rate. 4 of this countries views having rapid
or too high growth rate, 3 such as Botswana, Lesotho and Zimbabwe had policies to lower it and
are among countries most affected by the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Hence, decline in population
growth was mainly due to AIDS epidemic. Yet still, these tree countries aimed at lowering
population growth and fertility.
Growth rate Government policies
Raise Maintain Lower no intervention Total
1. less than 1% 0 2 3 2 7
2. 1 -2% 1 1 10 3 15
3. 2 – 3% 0 3 15 3 21
4. 3% or more 0 0 7 3 10
TOTAL 1 6 35 11 53
Source: United Nations Population Policies, 2006.
In 2003, 52 countries in Africa formulated or where in the process to formulate comprehensive
population policies that holistically include demography, social, economic and environmental
issues tailored along international standards (UNECA, 2004). See the table above: -
1. NATURAL CHANGE POLICIES:
text] Page 31
A. Fertility and Reproductive Health Policies: these are two groups of policies that focus on
fertility decline. In other to achieve a decline in fertility, most developing countries adopt
effective fertility control policies which address three (3) key determinants of fertility such
as:
(i.) Proximate determinants
(ii.) Background determinants, and
(iii.) Social and cultural determinants/change.
Background determinants – are earlier approaches, mostly before the 1980s, which aimed at
reducing fertility through education and health practices – that is, through a health education
approach. These determinants promote Mortality decline through health programs such as child
vaccination (expanded programme on immunization, EPI); environment sanitation and
interventions that collectively affected fertility.
In addition, education policies are designed to mainly enhance the quality of human resources
which indirectly affects fertility. An example is ensuring that more girls are enrolled into school
and progressing into secondary and tertiary levels. This action will delay or prevent early marriage
and possibilities of early child bearing or early fertility.
PROXIMATE DETERMINANTS – are fertility decline policies implements in the 1980s such as
family planning campaigns and the cultural variables associated with marriage, sexual behaviour
and reproductive health within marriage. Example, the promotion of contraception this policy
resulted in fertility decline in most countries in Asia, Latin America, and Africa. For example, a
closely negative relationship exists across all high contractive prevalence countries and total
fertility rate. hence, fertility is effectively reduced by raising the contraceptive prevalence rate.
Modern contraception is effective in addressing fertility decline and comprised of several methods
used by either a woman or man. For example, by stopping contraception permanently through
sterilization for women and vasectomies for men; spacing birth through use of short term reversible
methods like contraceptive pill; use of implants (female condoms) and injectable methods by
women, IUDS; male condoms etc.
Lastly, traditional methods may also encourage such as postpartum abstinence and breast feeding.
These methods are less reliable and should not be relied upon than the modern methods. In
addition, cultural variables associated with marriage like raising the age at marriage (legal
minimum age at marriage extended), reforms about family formation and structures and decline in
polygamy; spacing or long birth intervals to protect the baby and mother’s health and even that of
the subsequent child.
SOCIAL AND CULTURAL CHANGES – are the fertility decline measures resulting from a range
of policy interventions. For example, decline in fertility occur in the north. Not because of
governments interventions or use of the above two determinants. Rather, it was through
‘spontaneous’ measures in response to earlier mortality decline which is socially kept low by a
text] Page 32
desire of couples for few or even no children, or a life – style choice characteristic of the second
demographic transition – i.e., mortality decline, assured survival of infants, etc.
Social changes many also lead to the achievement of fertility decline such as the reverse flow of
wealth from children to adults in developing countries and from adults to children in developed
countries. Also directing policies in developing countries to ensure women have access to their
desired fertility and discouraging setting targets for them.
B. MORTALITY POLICIES – these are policies to address mortality or ensure mortality
decline. Two complementary approaches result in mortality decline. Fret is development –
that is (i.e.,); ensuring that people have access to a host of opportunities like higher
incomes, better nutrition, live in healthier conditions, and have better access to health care.
Second involves provision of effective curative and preventive health services. In every
industrialized countries (NIC), recent economic improvements have made possible the
provision of effective curative services and these have moved their population structure from
a ‘youthful’ to an ‘ageing’ population. The epidemiological transition where infectious
diseases which are the causes of death have declined.
In resource stricken countries like states in sub – Saharan African, policies to reduce mortality
are direct sect-oral policies of the health sector (ministry. The areas of intervention are
vaccination programmes (both government and or NGOs funded, and diseases specific
programs like ROLL BACK MALARIA, polices, etc. but the success of such programmes are
hindered by:
✔ The existing of weak or absence of adequate health care infrastructures for

successful eradication (example the delivery of prophylactics to control malaria
or bed nets for prevention);
✔ Cultural and economic barriers affecting their use even of available; and
✔ Lack of resources where mostly needed – that is, shortage of qualified health
manpower (brain drain) and lack of capital resources for health system
investment.
In the case non-curable diseases and their related mortality (i.e., HIV/AIDS), behaviour change
policies to impact human relationships and sexual behaviour with and outside marriage are needed.
For example, use of antiretroviral therapies (ARTS) to control the virus. Behavioural change may
be in the form of fewer partners for men and women; greater protective use of condoms during sex
especially with non-regular partners; awareness campaigns and HIV testing, ABC policies (i.e.,
Abstinence, be faithful use a condom); all require display of political leadership.
2. MIGRATION POLICIES:
(a.) INTERNAL MIGRATION POLICIES: - These policies often target the two categories of
internal migration – viz: ‘rural - rural’ and rural – urban migration.
text] Page 33
In the case of rural – rural migration; government makes/ plans such flows and integrate
them into national development policies for national development. Mostly these policies
are designed for the redistribution of population to new regions that are often impoverished
or unfavorable rural areas. Government established resettlement schemes that are much
more of political considerations than economic for holistic territorial development.
(b.) INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION POLICIES – are state policies that control who moves
in (immigrant) and out (emigration) across national boundaries. Immigration and
emigration policies are used by the state to manage these flows.
In other to migrate passports and visas are formal documents migrants should possess most
migration across boundaries are for economic betterment and economic intent which form
essential component of broader development strategies and broader control over the labour
force
3. POPULATION RESOURCE POLICIES: - these are policies for the enhancement of
human resources (development) base through knowledge and health (that is, remaining free
from disease). These are social objectives in developed countries and accessible to the few
elite groups in developing countries.
In developed countries, these policies are regarded as investments and regarded as
consumption goods with high level of government spending. Hence, such priorities areas
like provision of schools, knowledge networks and health services must be encourage in
all countries to develop their human resources base:
Policies for human resources development (HRD) involve direct interventions in the development
process as outlined in the millennium development goals to be achieved by 2015:
o Reduce infant and child mortality (MDGH4) which in return impacts, MDG2;
achieving universal primary education;
o Improve material health (MDG5);
o Combat major diseases – e.g. malaria and HIV/AIDS (MDG6);
o Empowering women (MDG3) with immediate implications for reducing fertility and
for reproductive health; and
o Ensure environment stability (MDG7).
LECTURE 7.
POPULATION AND PLANNING
text] Page 34
Planning of population for socio- economic or human resources development comprised of the
following areas:
i. Population and education planning;
ii. Population and planning for employment
iii. Population and health planning, etc
(a.) PLANNING AND EDUCATIONAL PLANNING: -
Population growth rate may have both direct and indirect implications for educational
planning. For example, high population growth signifies a high percent of school going age,
and this causes rapid expansion of educational requirement.
In developing countries, acceleration of population growth, high fertility and declining
mortality result in rapid population growth. These conditions pose limitation in setting and
achieving educational targets through the age distribution effect and the rate of growth of the
population of school going age.
Variation in the rate of population growth can cause problems in educational planning. It will
however cause difficulties in taking appropriate measures for the training of teachers which
must happen even before the birth of the children they will have to teach.
As a rule, rule the starting point educational planning is a preparation of projections of the
future size and demographic compositions of the total population and the population in school
going ages by single years for a period 15-20 years. Future educational requirements are
established on the basis of the latter projections and set targets. Specific programs within the
educational plan are formulated and implemented like training of teachers and the construction
of schools (buildings and learning teaching materials). The educational planning projections
should or even must include all these variables.
The general picture of educational development thus obtained can then be evaluated in terms
of costs and capacity and where necessary modified to allow for insufficient measures.
Educational planning therefore has relevant implications for manpower planning. The two
must be seen to complement each other.
In conclusion; it must be emphasized that, if educational planning is to be meaningful. There
should be adequate demographic data. There is however a death or lack of accurate
demographic data in African countries. None – the less, efforts have been made by many
African countries to utilized the limited available demographic data in their educational
planning.
(b.) POPULATION AND PLANNING FOR EMPLOYMENT: -
PLANNING: - Planning maybe considered as a rational process whereby the best manner
of achieving certain goals with the best available resources or means is identified and
text] Page 35
defined. It is a method of general systematic analysis of pursuing and fulfilling the general
policy objectives Vis-a – Vis the limited amount of resources and other constrains faced
by policy makers.
Human resource or labour is the most important factor in production. Hence, productivity or
output depends on the extent to which the potential productive capacity of human and other
material resources are utilized.
Employment generally refers to the number of persons employed out of the total labour. The
concept of full employment suggests that every member of the labour force who desires to
work will actually find employment. This suggests a utopian situation in a perfectly planned
economy which is reality is a rare situation or does not exist in the real world. Employment is
largely a function of demographic variables; hence such variables must be examined in
planning, Example of demographic variables affecting planning is:
▪ Population size – increase in population size put pressure on employment (job

availability) while decline population also affects employment.
▪ Population growth rate –a rapid growth rate will outstretch the projections and job
opportunities available more people will remain unemployed.
▪ Age and sex distribution –
▪ Internal and international migration.

(c.) POPULATION AND HEALTH PLANNING: -
Total population and age distribution both affect and have implications for planning in the
health sector. If the total population is large, there ought to be large health services (hospitals
dispensaries, health centres, clinics, health posts, etc.) and medical personnel’s (doctors,
nurses, lab technicians, dispenses, nurse aides, etc.). When the total population is large and the
age distribution is even, the health services and personnel should also be evenly distribution.
Future health planning requires information about growth rate of the population for efficient
provision of services and infrastructure.
In the area of age distribution of the population, if a large proportion of the population falls
within the age 0 – 5, 6-10 and 11-15 (i.e., youthful age) more planning is needed for health
services that will cater for the needs of children – {under five clinics, maternity homes,
maternity – child health (MCH) aids, etc.}
On the other hand, if there are more females in the population, it implies high fertility and high
birth rtes. It also requires planning for more children and much such as more clinics (under
five clinics), maternity homes, nurses and aides, etc.
text] Page 36
LECTURE 8.
MIGRATION AND DEVELOPMENT
Continuous Assessments: - Answer ALL Questions:
1. Critically assess or discuss the linear relationship between migration and development as
hypothesized by zelinsky, 1971. Elaborate on the causes of and impacts of movement.
2. How does international migration (south – south and north – south movements) widen or
reduce international disparities in development?
3. How does internal migration (rural – urban, rural – rural, urban – rural movement) widen
or reduce internal disparities in development.
text] Page 37

Gphy 423 - Population Studies 2 - Lecture Notes

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Description:

Original Title

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Gphy 423 - Population Studies 2 - Lecture Notes

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

GPHY 423 – POPULATION STUDIES –PART TWO

1. Population and Development Inter-relationships

Consumes resources POPULATION Creates resources

Malthusian and Boserupian Scenarios

Increase area in Switch to higher yielding

INCREASE Domestic industry

A Crafts and Trades

Rural-rural MIGRATION POPULATION PRESSURE INCREASE NON-FARM

Limitation of births within Higher age of marriage Increasing celibacy

Responses to Population Pressure (sources; Grigg, 1980)

Demographic Transition Model

The stages of the demographic model can be summarized as follows:

STAGES CHARACTERISTIC REASONS COUNTRIES

Death Rate is high

Stage 3 - Birth Rate starts to ● Family planning Typical of

Stage 4 – Birth Rate and Death Typical of

CONSEQUENCES OF THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION

Two quiet separate consequences of the demographic transition exist, namely:

● Problems for advanced societies or developed countries

● Increased aged population – an imbalance in the population structures of developed

DEVELOPING COUNTRIES PROBLEMS

ASSUMPTIONS OF THE DEMOGRAPHIC MODEL –

5. THE DEMOGRAPHIC EQUATION

AN ASSESSMENT OF THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION THEORY

PERCEPTION OF POPULATION PROBLEMS IN AFRICA

POPULATION GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT

1. POPULATION GROWTH AND ITS EFFECTS ON KEY VARIABLES

(a). Direct productive capital, and

(b). Non – direct productive capital.

Direct productive capital is investment in enterprises (businesses);

What bring about income economies of scale?

MANAGEMENT OF THE ECOSYSTEM FOR THE BENEFIT OF MAN.

1. Restrict the use of explosives

4. Pollution from land-based factories must be avoided as a matter of cause.

5. Industrial fishing, utilizing ocean factories should be controlled.

● The activities of fishermen must be monitored - fishing regulated.

1. They provide timber and fuel wood.

1. POPULATION AND THE SUPPLY OF AND DEMAND FOR THE FACTORS OF

Demographic aspects of savings - these include:

3. Effects of household size on consumption and savings - Empirically, a younger age

4. Effects of population growth and savings on economic growth - Population growth is

THE DEMOGRAPHIC ASPECTS OF PRODUCTIVITY.

Meaning of population – productivity refers to an index of the efficiency of the economy in

Total production – inputs = Net production

A polices is simply a plan or statement of intentions intended to accomplish a desired goal(s). a

(a). state – driven

(b). market – driven, and

(c) culture – driven.

CULTURE DRIVEN – POLICIES -: These polices ensure management of population change

▪ Fertility and reproductive health

(d) Population resources policies:

✔ The existing of weak or absence of adequate health care infrastructures for

▪ Population size – increase in population size put pressure on employment (job

▪ Age and sex distribution –

▪ Internal and international migration.

You might also like